Dow Jones Top Markets Headlines at 9 AM ET: Gold, Global Stocks Fall Amid Israel, Iran Escalation Fears. Oil Prices Are Rising. | Bank ...

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran spurred a drop in global stocks and gold, while oil prices climbed. Central banks held rates steady amid inflation fears. Foreign investment and U.S. Treasuries declined.

Gold, Global Stocks Fall Amid Israel, Iran Escalation Fears. Oil Prices Are Rising.

With U.S. markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday, global investors were weighing up a potential escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict.

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Bank of England Mirrors Fed and Stands Pat

Central banks are facing a new challenge as tensions between Israel and Iran threaten to push energy prices and inflation higher.

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Trump Privately Approved of Attack Plans for Iran but Has Withheld Final Order

The president is hoping that threatening to join Israel's strikes will lead Tehran to abandon its nuclear program.

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Foreign Investment Faces Third Year of Decline, UN Warns

Overseas investment by businesses around the world is at risk of falling for a third straight year as rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions freeze big decisions about where to locate factories, the UN warned.

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ECB's Next Move Most Likely to Be a Rate Cut, Villeroy Says

Unless the eurozone faces a major new shock such as an escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East, the ECB is more likely to lower its key interest rate over the next six months than raise it, the head of the Bank of France said Thursday.

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Swiss Central Bank Cuts Rate to Deter Search for Safe Haven

Switzerland cut rates to zero to rein in the rapidly appreciating franc, which has acted as a safe haven for investors given raised concerns over U.S. trade policy and Middle East tensions.

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Turkish Central Bank Stands Pat on Rates Despite Easing Inflation

The bank left its one-week repo rate at 46% as a means to counter volatile swings in the lira that followed the dramatic arrest and imprisonment of a prominent opposition politician, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

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The Fed Waits for the Dust to Settle on Tariffs

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is engaged in a balancing act: projecting confidence while admitting "we don't know" what comes next.

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China's Real Estate Recovery Is Mixed. These Cities Are Bouncing Back.

Luxury homes in Shanghai are selling but prices are still falling in smaller cities.

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Goldman's top economist expects Trump won't raise tariffs on other countries on July 9

Will there be a comeback for the "reciprocal" tariffs that President Trump unveiled at his "liberation day" event on April 2? Probably not, according to Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius.

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How 'gold fatigue' has helped drive platinum prices up 44% this year

Platinum has far outpaced its metals peers for the month and year to date as supplies of the commodity are expected to fall short of demand for a third straight year. But that's not the only reason for platinum's stellar price performance.

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Brazil's Central Bank Extends Aggressive Hiking, Indicates Potential Pause

The bank's monetary committee, known as Copom, raised the Selic benchmark rate to 15% from 14.75%. It is now at its highest level since May 2006.

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Foreign Investors Sold $41 Billion in Treasuries After Trump Unveiled Tariffs

In April, foreigners sold a net $40.8 billion of U.S. notes and bonds that had more than one year to maturity.

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Stablecoin Legislation Will Juice Demand for Treasurys-to a Point

Issuers of digital currencies need Treasury bills for their reserves, but analysts say the consequences are uncertain.

source : morningstar

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The U.S. has said it is ready to strike Iran unless it completely abandons its nuclear programme, something Iran has vowed it would not do.

Developments point to elevated geopolitical risks, and stock markets are bleeding value. The New Zealand Dollar is positively correlated with stocks, meaning the drawdown is weighing heavily.

The New Zealand-U.S. Dollar exchange rate is lower by 0.80% on the day at 0.5981, the Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate is higher by 0.78% at 2.2435, and the Euro to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate is up 0.65% at 1.9174.

For markets, the key issue here is oil and how Iran will respond in the Strait of Hormuz. This is the chokepoint between the Saudi peninsula and Iran, where Iran could flex some muscle by halting shipping.

Given that significant amounts of oil flow from the Middle East to global markets through this passage, markets are wary, and oil prices are elevated.

New Zealand Dollar Slumps on War Fears, But Good News on the Home Front_1

Above: Brent crude oil prices have surged.

External drivers are therefore at the forefront, but NZD will take cheer from news the economy expanded by a bigger margin than was expected in the first quarter.

New Zealand GDP for Q1 2025 grew 0.8% on a quarterly basis in the first quarter of the year, above market expectations for 0.7% and ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) 0.4% forecast.

Given the stronger GDP data, economists at ASB expect the RBNZ to keep rates on hold in July.

"Robust business services and manufacturing drove growth. Kiwi spending looks less shy, with demand for experiential services apparent (but not travel though). Government spending is still contributing a lot to growth," says Wesley Tanuvasa, Economist at ASB in Auckland.

The positive outcome in the annual figure masks a difficult year for New Zealand, with the annual rate showing the economy contracted 0.7% in the year to the first quarter.

The RBNZ has slashed rates in response to the economic contraction, and signs of growth and the prospect of more benign inflation mean it can now consider a pause.

"Stronger GDP means the RBNZ has scope to pause in July – we think the Bank will," says Tanuvasa.

Such a development means interest rates turn from a headwind to a tailwind for the NZ Dollar, pointing to a more forceful recovery in H2, provided the Iran-Israel conflict dies down and President Donald Trump waters down his tariff agenda.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Adam

Commodity

U.S. markets are closed in recognition of Juneteenth, and the gold market is not finding much direction from global currencies after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, while the Swiss National Bank cut rates.

Mixed global monetary policies are helping to keep gold prices locked in their current elevated range. The yellow metal, priced against the British pound, is £2,508.39—roughly unchanged on the day. At the same time, gold priced in Swiss francs last traded at ₣2,755.86 an ounce, also unchanged. Gold’s price action against specific currencies is broadly in line with the global market, with the precious metal trading at $3,370.15 an ounce, up 0.08% on the day.

According to analysts, it’s not surprising that gold is seeing little direction from either the Bank of England or the Swiss National Bank, as both decisions were roughly in line with expectations.

Economists note that the BoE’s monetary policy remains caught in a tug-of-war, with weakening economic growth on one side and persistent inflationary pressures on the other.

However, analysts also point out that three committee members voted for a 25 basis point rate cut—more than expected—while six members voted to keep interest rates unchanged.

Despite the dovish vote, Michael Brown, Senior Market Strategist at Pepperstone, said the central bank’s monetary policy statement remains straightforward, as it aims to implement "gradual and careful" rate cuts while maintaining restrictive policies to keep consumer prices in check.

“On the whole, the June MPC meeting isn't exactly going to go down as a 'gamechanger' for the 'Old Lady', with policymakers, for the time being, sticking with their autopilot approach of delivering a cut at every other policy meeting. Hence, my base case remains that the next 25bp reduction, taking Bank Rate to 4.00%, will come at the August confab,” he said.

Fixed income analysts at TD Securities also expect the BoE to continue cutting rates, even as inflationary pressures remain elevated.

“Looking forward, the addition of Ramsden to the doves' camp, as well as the softer-than-expected data releases since the last meeting, suggests that the quarterly pace the BoE has been on thus far is likely to continue. This places more certainty on the August cut, and we expect an additional one in November, for a total further reduction of 50bps in the Bank Rate by year-end,” the analysts said.

Meanwhile, gold appears to be a potentially stronger bet against the Swiss franc, as the SNB cut its interest rate to zero and signaled a willingness to go further if necessary in order to deter investors from pushing up the franc.

Economists note that the SNB is attempting to keep the franc weaker to support economic activity. Many investors view the franc as an important safe-haven currency due to Switzerland’s stable financial markets. The ongoing global economic uncertainty—initially triggered by President Donald Trump’s global trade war—has significantly increased demand for safe-haven currencies like the franc.

Economists at ING said they expect economic uncertainty to be a stronger factor supporting the Swiss franc than the central bank’s rate cuts.

“Considering the troubled trade and geopolitical environment, it is unlikely that the Swiss franc will weaken significantly in the coming months, although the SNB hopes that the increase in the interest rate differential between Switzerland and other central banks will help to limit this appreciation. Its ‘safe-haven’ characteristic, which attracts capital flows during high-risk periods, should keep it strong,” the analysts said.

Source: Kitco

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Three interest-rate cuts in just over 24 hours by central banks in Europe highlighted a shift as monetary officials seek to manage the fallout from Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policies.

Central bankers in Switzerland and Sweden had suggested as recently as March that they were most likely done loosening, but the Swiss National Bank instead trimmed borrowing costs by 25 basis points on Thursday, following a similar move by Sweden’s Riksbank a day earlier.

Norway’s pivot, also on Thursday, was altogether more dramatic, with another quarter-point cut that none of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted.

With policy decisions from at least 18 central banks managing more than 40% of the global economy scheduled for this week, the easing in parts of Europe contrasted with a wait-and-see approach predominating around the world.

The US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England all held, as did policymakers from Pakistan to Turkey and Chile.

All that comes against the backdrop of a July 9 deadline that could see the US reintroduce punitive trade tariffs across the world. Combined with continued uncertainty over the war in Ukraine and a potential US strike on Iran, it’s left policymakers unwilling or unable to move.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“Differing tariff impacts and labor market conditions help explain why the BOE and Fed are slower to cut rates than others. Right now, the war in Iran is driving another wedge. In the shale-rich US, higher oil prices raise inflation without hitting GDP, making it harder for the Fed to ease. In oil-importing Europe, higher inflation is accompanied by weaker growth, making the decision to cut an easier one.”

—Jamie Rush, director of global economics.

The reasons for the rate cuts in Sweden, Norway and Switzerland are all linked to inflation — even if the situations diverge.

Swiss consumer prices fell 0.1% from a year ago in May and new SNB forecasts published Thursday show inflation will average just 0.2% this year. That’s primarily due to the haven franc, which has appreciated against the dollar and euro since Trump took office.

Price pressure in Sweden has eased after a temporary spike at the start of the year and as a nascent rebound in the largest Nordic nation has fizzled out. That’s allowing space for more stimulus, Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen said Wednesday.

The krona has been the best performer this year in the G-10 of major currency holders, surging 15% against the dollar, and also helping to reduce the risk of imported inflation.

In Norway, price growth has been stickier over the last year, partly due to a weaker performance of the krone.

Even so, a core measure of consumer-price growth last month matched this year’s lowest level — 2.8%. The Norwegian central bank now sees headline price growth next year at 2.2%, down from 2.7% seen in March, while this year’s inflation is still seen at 3%.

The three institutions are also at very different stages in their policy paths: Norway’s Thursday move is its first post-pandemic reduction in borrowing costs, while Sweden and Switzerland carried out their seventh and six moves respectively.

Uniting them, however, is the fact that they all may cut again.

Riksbank’s Thedeen and Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache both told reporters as much, while SNB President Martin Schlegel wouldn’t exclude such an option — even if that would push the Swiss rate into negative territory.

Source: Bloomberg

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Glendon

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin continues to hover near $104.7K as volatility tightens and macro headwinds grow. With rising geopolitical tensions and cautious monetary signals, global investors are shifting away from risk assets. This environment places downside pressure on Bitcoin and MicroStrategy (MSTR), which acts as a leveraged proxy to the cryptocurrency.

Geopolitical Stress Triggers Risk Rotation

Bitcoin traded around $104.7K this week, posting a 7-day decline of nearly 3%. The Euro Area Stock Market Index also retreated, closing near 5,237 amid weakening sentiment. These moves reflect heightened caution following reports of potential U.S. strikes in the Middle East.

The Federal Reserve held rates steady but warned of renewed inflation risks tied to tariff policy. These developments reinforced risk-off behavior across global markets. As a result, capital rotated away from high-beta assets, including Bitcoin and crypto-related equities.

Euro Area Stock Market Index (EU50) | Source : X

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has compressed into a tight 30-day range, reflecting a pronounced volatility squeeze. This setup often precedes a breakout, but the direction remains uncertain. Rolling high and low bands are narrowing, signalling indecision.

BTC 30-day Price High and Low All-Time | Source : CryptoQuant

Based on realised prices and moving averages, on-chain models show a confluence of support between $97K and $94K. The asset continues trading above key cost bases, but recent weakness raises the risk of downside breaks. If Bitcoin loses this cluster, broader liquidation may follow.

Technical indicators show Bitcoin is trading just below its recent 30-day high of $111K. Momentum has slowed, and buyers have failed to reclaim resistance levels. However, Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $216.48 million in net inflows yesterday, marking seven consecutive days of positive flows.

BTC Daily Toatl Net Inflow | Source : SoSoValue

This steady accumulation signals sustained institutional interest despite market uncertainty. Continued inflows could eventually support a breakout from the current consolidation zone.

Sentiment Weakens as Social Metrics Flash Warning

Retail sentiment toward Bitcoin has deteriorated sharply, reaching its most bearish level since early April. The positive-to-negative comment ratio on social media has dropped to 1.03, reflecting growing investor frustration. Historically, such sentiment imbalance precedes increased volatility.

Bitcoin Sentiment | Source : Santiment

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 48, pointing to neutral sentiment with a tilt toward caution. Altcoin Season Index remains weak at 23, confirming that investors are staying close to large-cap assets like Bitcoin. Low enthusiasm across altcoins highlights the broader uncertainty.

With bearish commentary rising and market participation thinning, price action could react sharply to external headlines. Bitcoin’s close tracking of macro indicators and social dynamics suggests it remains highly sensitive to global developments. MSTR is likely to follow in lockstep with Bitcoin’s next move.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Last week’s spending review revealed Rachel Reeves’s plan for reviving the UK’s struggling economy – but one of the most powerful levers for unleashing growth lies out of her reach, at the Bank of England.

Thursday’s no-change decision on interest rates from the Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) was widely expected; but the chancellor and her colleagues will be fervently hoping for a cut in August, perhaps sooner – and more before the year is up.

The Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, had already warned the pace of rate cuts looked uncertain, as a result of Donald Trump’s trade wars. The alarming prospect of a fresh conflict in the Middle East is likely to have made MPC members even more cautious.

The minutes from Thursday’s meeting suggested the MPC would “remain sensitive to heightened unpredictability in the economic and geopolitical environment,” and would “continue to update its assessment of risks to the economy”.

Evidence of rising food prices in the latest inflation data is also likely to have preyed on their minds – driven in part by climactic challenges, including the poor harvests that triggered the largest annual increase in chocolate costs on record. Inflation is expected to remain around its current level of 3.4% for the rest of the year – well above the Bank’s 2% target.

Yet the minutes did also suggest the balance of opinion is shifting towards loosening policy, as the jobs market continues to slow down, helping to alleviate concerns about bumper wage deals driving up inflation.

The MPC now expects the impact of Trump’s tariffs to be less dramatic than at its last forecast in May, given various concessions and deals – though they stress that “trade policy uncertainty would nevertheless continue to have an impact on the UK economy”.

Dave Ramsden, deputy governor, voted for a quarter-point cut, to 4% – joining the external members Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra, both of whom wanted a bigger-than-consensus half-point reduction in May.

The paragraph of the minutes that set out their argument pointed to the fact that “the cumulative evidence from a range of labour market data pointed to a material further loosening in labour market conditions”.

Ramsden has previously been slightly ahead of the consensus in moving to cut – he was ready for rates to come down in May last year, three months before the eventual reduction in August; and wanted to see a cut in December, that didn’t happen until February.

The other two doves voted for a bumper half-point cut in May, so it is no surprise that they would have liked to have seen another reduction on Thursday.

Dhingra told MPs on the Treasury select committee recently that she was becoming increasingly concerned about the risk that holding policy “too tight” for an extended period – ie keeping rates high – risked undermining the economy’s potential to grow.

Bailey confirmed alongside Thursday’s no-change decision that rates remained on a “gradual downward path”. That appears to point to another quarter-point cut in August. Reeves will be hoping the MPC picks up the pace.

Source: Theguardian

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Glendon

Political

China has evacuated more than 1,600 citizens from Iran and hundreds more from Israel, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said on Thursday, as evacuees clog border crossings amid the intensifying conflict between the two countries.

Evacuation efforts are continuing and China has maintained communication with Iran, Israel, Egypt and Oman, spokesperson Guo Jiakun told a regular press conference while calling for immediate measures to cool down tensions as soon as possible.

China urges parties to the conflict, especially Israel, to immediately cease fire, Guo said.

Israel struck a key Iranian nuclear site on Thursday and Iranian missiles hit an Israeli hospital, as the conflict showed no signs of a detente nearly a week after Israel first launched what it called "pre-emptive strikes" against Iran.

The Chinese embassy in Iran renewed calls for citizens to leave the country via land routes, while also warning people about longer immigration processing time as congestion has formed at two border checkpoints - Astara heading into Azerbaijan and Bajgiran into Turkmenistan.

Those border crossing points are 490km (304 miles) and 910km away from Tehran, respectively.

Chinese people can also leave Iran via Turkey, Armenia and Iraq, the embassy advised.

Earlier on Thursday, China's embassy in Israel said it will begin evacuating people in batches from Friday, taking those who want to leave to the Taba Border Crossing into Egypt via bus, about 360 km from Tel Aviv.