DJT Stock Jumps in After-hours Trading As Early Election Results Roll in

Economic

Stocks

Summary:

Trump has clinched Kentucky, Indiana, and West Virginia, according to the Associated Press, while Harris has claimed Vermont.

Trump Media & Technology Group stock (DJT) surged as much as 25% in after-hours trading on Tuesday as investors brace for more wild swings with early voting results underway. Shares have since retreated, rising a more modest 10%.

Trump has clinched Kentucky, Indiana, and West Virginia, according to the Associated Press, while Harris has claimed Vermont.

The stock had a wild session during market hours after trading was halted several times due to volatility, with shares quickly erasing 15% gains and reversing Monday's double-digit percentage rise to kick off the week.

Shares were still able to somewhat recover from steeper losses, although the stock still closed down a little over 1%.

Last week, shares suffered their largest percentage decline and closed down around 20% to end the five-day period on Friday, which shaved off around $4 billion from the company's market cap. The stock has still more than doubled from its September lows.

DJT Stock Jumps in After-hours Trading As Early Election Results Roll in_1

The latest price action comes as investors await the results of the presidential election between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

Volatility in the stock is expected to continue. One investor has warned that if Trump loses the election, shares of DJT could plunge to $0.

"It's a binary bet on the election," Matthew Tuttle, CEO of investment fund Tuttle Capital Management, recently told Yahoo Finance's Catalysts.

Tuttle, who currently owns put options on the stock, said the trajectory of shares hinges on "a buy the rumor, sell the fact" trading strategy.

"I would imagine that the day after him winning, you'd see this come down," he surmised. "If he loses, I think it goes to zero."

Interactive Brokers' chief strategist Steve Sosnick said DJT has taken on a meme-stock "life of its own."

"It was volatile on the way up, and when a stock is that volatile in one direction, it has a tendency to be that volatile in the other direction," he said on a call with Yahoo Finance last week.

DJT Stock Jumps in After-hours Trading As Early Election Results Roll in_2

Prior to the recent volatility, shares in the company — the home of the Republican nominee's social media platform, Truth Social — had been steadily rising in recent weeks as both domestic and overseas betting markets shifted in favor of a Trump victory.

Prediction sites like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi all showed Trump's presidential chances ahead of those of Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris. That lead, however, narrowed significantly over the weekend as new polling showed Harris surpassing Trump in Iowa, which has historically voted Republican.

And as betting markets tighten, national polls show both candidates in a virtually deadlocked race. Polls in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which are likely to decide the fate of the election, also show razor-thin margins.

In September, the stock traded at its lowest level since the company's debut following the expiration of its highly publicized lockup period. Shares had also been under pressure, as previous polling in September saw Harris with a bigger lead over the former president.

DJT Stock Jumps in After-hours Trading As Early Election Results Roll in_3

Trump founded Truth Social after he was kicked off major social media apps like Facebook (META) and Twitter, now X, following the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots. Trump has since been reinstated on those platforms. He officially returned to posting on X in mid-August after about a year's hiatus.

As Truth Social attempts to take on social media incumbents, the fundamentals of the company have long been in question.

On Tuesday, DJT dropped third quarter results after the market close that revealed a net loss of $19.25 million for the quarter ending Sept. 30. This was narrower than the $26.03 million the company reported in the year-ago period.

DJT also reported revenue of $1.01 million, a slight year-over-year drop compared to the $1.07 million it reported in the third quarter of 2023. Over the past nine months ending Sept. 30, revenue has fallen 23% from the prior-year period.

Last month, the company revealed that its COO had stepped down in September.

Trump maintains a roughly 60% interest in DJT. At current levels of around $35 a share, Trump Media boasts a market cap of about $6.8 billion, giving the former president a stake worth around $4.1 billion.

Source: yahoo finance

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Justin

Political

A historic and at times tumultuous presidential campaign will come to a close on Nov. 5. But the outcome may not be known on election night.

A historic election that saw an incumbent president drop his campaign, a woman rise to the top of the Democratic ticket and multiple assassination attempts against the Republican candidate will come to an end on Nov. 5.

But the outcome may not be known on election night.

It took four days for the race to be projected for President Joe Biden in 2020 as mail-in voting expansions, and other changes made to help Americans participate during a global pandemic, delayed counting in several key states.

"It can take a few days and sometimes more," said Barry Burden, the director of the Elections Research Center at University of Wisconsin-Madison.

An especially tight race, as expected this year, can make it even more difficult to project a winner in the hours after polls close, experts told ABC News. Polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump neck-and-neck heading into Election Day.

Each state has its own rules to administer elections, including different ways to process mail ballots and deadlines for curing signatures or other issues, which means some may take longer than others to tabulate results.

538 has compiled a complete guide to poll closing times, vote counting and when to expect results in every state.

"There are a variety of things that have to be done because there are these safeguards in place to try and minimize the possibility of fraud," said Mitchell Brown, a professor of political science at Auburn University. "And so in states that have those rules, it takes a while in order to process all the ballots."

Trump, in 2020, prematurely declared victory before all votes were counted. Misinformation spread online about the integrity of the election as the country awaited a final result and Trump or his allies later challenged the outcome by baselessly claiming widespread fraud, particularly with mail ballots.

"Not knowing the result on election night is not an indication of election malfeasance ever," Brown emphasized.

All eyes will be on the seven swing states that will likely determine whether Harris or Trump win the Electoral College: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In two of those states -- Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- mail or absentee ballots cannot even begin to be processed until the morning of Election Day. That includes opening envelopes, verifying voter information and preparing them to be scanned before they can be counted, which can lead to delays.

In 2020, Wisconsin wasn't projected for either candidate until the day after Election Day and Pennsylvania was called the Saturday after Election Day.

In other key battleground states, mail or absentee ballots may be processed but cannot be counted until Election Day, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. That includes Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina.

In Arizona, a state that votes heavily by mail, mail or absentee ballots received before Election Day can be processed and counted upon receipt. But a sizable portion of those ballots get placed in drop boxes on Election Day, and those results may not be collected or counted until polls close, which may hold up a clear result depending on how close the race is.

In Nevada, another state where the presidential race wasn't projected until the Saturday after Election Day in 2020, some changes were made to help speed up vote counting -- including allowing mail or absentee ballots to start being counted 15 days before Election Day.

"It's really a product of the laws and depending where the Electoral College spotlight is in any given year, it can mean a faster count or a slower one," Burden said.

While news organizations often project a winner based on analysis of the vote count as its reported, results are not official until states certify them. States have their own certification deadlines, some of which extend into December, according to the Election Assistance Commission.

Recounts and legal challenges, especially litigation related to certification, could arise between a race being projected by media networks and the results being certified.

On Dec. 17, electors will meet in the states to vote for president and vice president.

Election officials in some key states are already warning that results may not come in on election night, and that it is normal.

"We will always prioritize accuracy and security over efficiency," Michigan's Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson recently said on CBS, estimating her state will be able to have a result by end of day on Nov. 6. "Understanding how much people will want those results, we're still going to make sure the process is secure and accurate before we put anything out to the public."

"We want to make sure we have an accurate count, and like we did in 2020, have a free and fair, safe and secure election," said Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro on ABC's "This Week."

Source:ABC News

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Justin

Political

Through Monday, Nov. 4, 83 million Americans had already cast their ballots in the 2024 election. On Tuesday, Nov. 5 — Election Day — millions more will join them.

Their votes this year will matter more than ever: According to 538’s forecasts for the White House, U.S. Senate and U.S. House, control of the federal government is firmly up for grabs. Our final model runs (published at 6 a.m. Eastern on Nov. 5) give Republicans a roughly 9-in-10 chance of winning control of the Senate, while the House and presidency are both toss-ups. The race for the White House, in fact, may be the closest presidential election in over a century.

The presidency

Let’s start with the race everyone is watching. According to 538’s final presidential forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 50-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College after all votes are counted (which could take a few days). We give former President Donald Trump a 49-in-100 chance to win.* Practically speaking, those odds are virtually indistinguishable — about the same as flipping a coin and getting heads versus tails.

Statistically, too, there is no meaningful difference between a 50-in-100 chance and a 49-in-100 chance. Small changes in the available polling data or settings of our model could easily change a 50-in-100 edge to 51-in-100 or 49-in-100. That’s all to say that our overall characterization of the race is more important than the precise probability — or which candidate is technically “ahead.”

More than any other factor, our forecast is so close because the polls are so close. According to our final polling averages, the margin between Trump and Harris is 2.1 percentage points or fewer in all seven swing states. Trump currently leads by 2.1 points in Arizona, 0.9 points in North Carolina, 0.8 points in Georgia and 0.3 points in Nevada. Harris is up by 1.0 point in Wisconsin and in Michigan. And in Pennsylvania (the state that’s most likely to decide the outcome of the election), Harris has a tiny 0.2-point edge.

But it is worth stressing that the polls will not be exactly correct. Polls overestimated Democrats by an average of 3-4 points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, for example, and overestimated Republicans by an average of 2.5 points in the 2012 presidential election. Our election model expects polls this year to be off by 3.8 points on average, although it could be more or less — and our model thinks this error is equally likely to favor Democrats as Republicans.

In other words, you should not expect polls in presidential races to be perfectly accurate. You should expect them to be as imperfect as they have been historically. And in a race with very narrow advantages for the leader in each key state, that means there’s a wide range of potential outcomes in the election.

And that’s why we’ve been saying the race isn’t necessarily going to be close just because the polls are. Trump and Harris, our model says, are both a normal polling error away from an Electoral College blowout. If we shift the polls by 4 points toward Harris, she would win the election with 319 Electoral College votes

Meanwhile, Trump would win with 312 electoral votes if the polls underestimate him by the same amount.

Hopefully, you can see just how uncertain a 50-in-100 chance of winning the election really is. When we say the race for the White House is a toss-up and could go either way, we mean it.

The House of Representatives

In the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans managed to win back the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. But they dramatically underperformed historical expectations, especially in seats where their candidates denied the results of the 2020 election. They ended up winning just 222 seats — barely enough to wield a functional majority (and sometimes it wasn’t even that functional).

According to 538’s final House forecast, the Republican Party is in real danger of losing the chamber entirely in 2024. We give them a 49-in-100 chance of controlling the House, while Democrats have a 51-in-100 chance of taking control. But whichever party wins a majority may find it so narrow as to be ungovernable: The median outcome in our forecast is that Democrats win just a one-seat majority.

Yet there is considerable uncertainty here, too. Because House polls are subject to a lot of error, and the other indicators that our House uses can be very noisy, our model thinks there is about a 1-in-2 chance that one party wins a double-digit majority.

To win a double-digit majority, Democrats would have to win all of the seats our model rates as “Likely Democratic,” “Lean Democratic” and “Toss-up” and secure two out of the 23 seats we currently rate as “Lean” or “Likely Republican.” Conversely, Republicans would have to win all of their “Likely” and “Lean” seats, all the “Toss-ups,” and four seats where Democrats are currently favored. Such performances sound ambitious, but it’s common for parties to sweep most or all of the toss-ups when they beat expectations.

One final point on where to expect surprises. We already know that we aren’t going to pick the “right” winners in each seat. That’s by design. Our goal isn’t to pick winners; it’s to correctly estimate probabilities. And for us to succeed in that regard, candidates with a 75-in-100 chance of winning need to win 75 times out of 100 — and lose 25 times out of 100. Our final forecast rates 66 seats as “Toss-up,” “Lean” or “Likely.” Based on how well our model would have predicted similar races in past elections, we expect 14 of those districts to go to the party that’s not favored to win. What’s more, we expect three upsets in districts rated as “Solid” for either party — which means they have at least a 98-in-100 chance of winning.

The Senate

And now for the race that is decidedly not close: the race to control the Senate. Our model gives Republicans a 92-in-100 chance of winning control of the upper chamber, which includes scenarios in which they win 51 seats or more and scenarios in which they win 50 seats as well as the White House (the vice president breaks ties in the Senate).**

Republicans’ strength in our forecast comes from their expected wins in reliably red Montana and Ohio, where moderate Democratic incumbents are trying to fend off fierce competition from Republicans. In Montana, the GOP has a 93-in-100 chance of defeating Sen. Jon Tester. In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown has a 41-in-100 chance of beating Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. And our forecast gives the Democratic candidate in West Virginia, Glenn Elliott, just a 1-in-1,000 chance of holding onto retiring Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat.

If Democrats lose at least two of these seats, which our forecast reckons should happen about 95 percent of the time, they will need to pick up another seat elsewhere in order to keep their majority. According to our forecast, their best chances of doing so are in Florida or Texas, but they only have a 16-in-100 chance of winning each. That’s not nothing; it’s about the chance of rolling a standard six-sided dice and getting a 1. But it’s still a fairly uphill climb for Democrats.

Our final word

This is a good time to remind people that our forecasts are not crystal balls. And especially in a year with races this close, they cannot provide more certainty than the data available to us. The point of creating election forecasting models, as I wrote last week, isn't to provide a hyper-accurate, laser-like predictive picture of the election that removes all doubt about what could happen. Rather, it's to give people a good understanding of how the polls could be wrong and what would happen if they are.

In the presidential and House elections, if the polls are off a historically normal amount, either party could come out ahead. In the Senate, the polls would need to be off by more than they were in 2020 in at least one state. That is possible, but given the other information available to us about the seats up for grabs, we think it’s unlikely Democrats will hold the chamber.

Footnotes

*Technically, Harris has a 50.33 percent chance to win and Trump has a 49.45 percent chance to win, and there is a 0.22 percent chance of an Electoral College tie. This is why the rounded numbers appear not to add up to 100 percent.

**As well as scenarios in which Republicans win 50 seats and Nebraska independent candidate Dan Osborn wins his seat and chooses not to caucus with either party.

Source:ABC News

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Justin

Political

The Republican Party is determined not to be outmanned in the courts regarding the 2024 elections, with GOP leaders leaning heavily on a new, litigation-focused "election integrity" effort launched earlier this year in a bid to avoid many of the same pitfalls as 2020.

The two-pronged effort seeks to improve the GOP ground game across the country, both by recruiting and training poll observers and by adding more transparency to the voting process, senior Republican Party officials told Fox News Digital in an interview.

To date, they have recruited some 230,000 volunteers across the country, RNC officials said, including 5,000 lawyers concentrated primarily in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

On the eve of Election Day, it is the lawyers whose talents could be especially useful in the days and weeks to come.

That is because the second half of the election integrity push focuses on litigation. Some of the lawsuits are aimed at ensuring "poll worker parity" and access for Republican observers at many election sites across the country, senior party officials told Fox News Digital.

However, they have also filed dozens of lawsuits aimed at cracking down on voter identification laws, tightening citizenship verification standards and adding new requirements for mail-in ballots and provisional ballots accepted by various states.

The Republican Party has been especially aggressive in filing these pre-election lawsuits, which officials describe as helping "set the rules of the road in key swing states."

As of this writing, party officials said they have filed more than 130 lawsuits—the vast majority of the roughly 200 election-related lawsuits in the 2024 election.

While the flurry of GOP-led lawsuits have dominated headlines in the final race to Election Day—primarily in the seven swing states considered to hold outsize importance in determining the next president— Republican Party officials pointed to courtroom victories won as early as this summer as some of their biggest achievements.

One example was the RNC's successful lawsuit against the city of Detroit in August.

The RNC had sued to add more Republican election inspectors to the city’s 300-plus voting precincts, citing a "7.5-to-one" ratio of Democrat inspectors to Republican inspectors. Republicans successfully argued that the disparity ran afoul of state law, which requires "an equal number, as nearly as possible" of election officials from both major political parties. More Republican observers were added as a result.

A more recent win occurred last week in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, where a judge sided with the GOP's request to extend early voting deadlines from Tuesday, Nov. 5, to Friday, Nov. 8.

Republican officials have touted success in achieving more transparency in state elections.

"We really view this as making America's elections run in a transparent and trustworthy way. And that's a net positive for everyone in this country, regardless of Republican or Democrat [party affiliation]," a senior RNC official told Fox News Digital in an interview.

Still, on the eve of Election Day, it remains to be seen whether these efforts will have accomplished their stated goal of establishing more trust in U.S. elections.

That is because the concept of "election security" not only requires certain safeguards to be placed around the voter registration and ballot-casting process, but also that the voters themselves then trust the results of the vote as legitimate.

A fresh AP-NORC poll found that Democrats are far more likely than their Republican counterparts to express confidence in the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

The poll found that while 71% of registered Democratic voters said they have "a great deal" of confidence in the national election outcome, just one-third of their Republican counterparts, or 24%, reported the same.

Looking ahead

While some of these lawsuits could be used by the RNC as a pretext to challenge the outcome of certain states after Election Day, legal experts said it is unclear what impact any of these legal challenges could have in contesting the results — even if the outcome in certain states is just as close as expected in a neck-and-neck election.

Courts are highly disinclined to take up cases after Election Day, Andrew McCarthy, a former federal prosecutor for the Southern District of New York, told Fox News in an interview.

"We want to have the game be fair, in the sense that there's bright lines way before you ever get to Election Day," McCarthy said. "So everybody has their eyes open about what the rules are."

"It's really hard to get a court to involve itself after an election has taken place and where they're in a position of potentially changing the outcome of the election," he added.

Source:Fox News

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Glendon

Economic

A SPAC III Acquisition Corp. (symbol: ASPCU) has officially filed for an IPO with the goal of raising $55 million. The company, a blank check entity based in Hong Kong, is targeting acquisitions in the rapidly growing fields of Environmental, Sustainability, and Governance (ESG) and material technology. The IPO offering consists of 5.5 million units, priced at $10 each, with each unit containing one share of common stock and one right to receive an additional one-fourth share of common stock upon the successful completion of the SPAC's merger.

Who is Behind A SPAC III?

Led by CEO, CFO, and Chairman Claudius Tsang, A SPAC III Acquisition Corp. aims to leverage his significant experience in private equity, mergers and acquisitions, and investments across Greater China and emerging markets. Tsang has previously been involved in the successful launches of two other SPACs, A SPAC I and A SPAC II, making him a seasoned leader in the blank-check company space.

Investment Focus: ESG and Material Technologies

The primary investment target for A SPAC III is companies within the ESG and material technology sectors, which have been attracting increasing attention due to the global push toward sustainability and climate-conscious business practices. The company intends to focus on businesses with a total enterprise value ranging from $100 million to $600 million. This target range places A SPAC III in a promising position to pursue mid-sized companies, particularly those that align with the growing demand for eco-friendly and innovative technological solutions.

The IPO Structure and What to Expect

A SPAC IPO is different from traditional IPOs in that it does not initially offer a business but rather raises funds with the intention of acquiring an existing company. In the case of A SPAC III, investors are being offered units priced at $10 each. These units will break down into one share of common stock and one right to receive a fractional share upon the consummation of the business combination. This right is a typical feature in SPAC deals and incentivizes shareholders to remain invested until a merger is finalized.

The units are being offered under the ticker symbol ASPCU, and the company is expected to list on the Nasdaq exchange. Maxim Group LLC is serving as the sole bookrunner for the offering.

Looking Ahead: A New Wave of Investment Opportunities

A SPAC III Acquisition Corp.’s IPO represents another step forward in the growth of the SPAC market, which has gained popularity due to its ability to provide quicker access to public capital markets. With ESG and material technology being key areas of focus, the IPO could attract significant investor interest from those looking to capitalize on the shift toward environmentally responsible and technologically innovative companies.

Conclusion

A SPAC III Acquisition Corp.’s IPO could be an exciting opportunity for investors interested in the intersection of sustainability and technology. With an experienced leadership team and a strong focus on ESG and material tech, the company is poised to make strategic acquisitions in a sector primed for growth. Investors will need to evaluate the risk-reward balance of SPAC investments, but this IPO could prove to be a smart move for those looking to align their investments with future-forward industries.

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Justin

Political

It’s decision day in America’s battle for the White House and control of Congress – even if the results could take days or weeks to sort through.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are battling over seven swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the three Great Lakes states that make up the “blue wall” that Trump cracked in 2016 but President Joe Biden carried in 2020, and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, the four Sun Belt battlegrounds.

If Harris wins, she would make history, becoming the first woman, first Asian American and first Black woman to win the presidency. A Trump victory would also be historic: He’d join Grover Cleveland as the only presidents to serve non-consecutive terms. He would do so after becoming the only president ever impeached twice, and the only former president ever convicted of felony crimes.

There is much more being decided Tuesday, including five states – Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota – voting on whether to turn back abortion bans with constitutional amendments.

Republicans hope to take advantage of a favorable Senate map, with Democrats defending seats in the red-leaning states of Montana, Ohio and West Virginia. The party’s hopes of holding onto its narrow House majority winds from the coast of Maine through New York’s Hudson Valley, the rolling hills of Virginia’s Piedmont, a “blue dot” in Nebraska and into California’s Orange County, where the political ebbs and flows of the Trump era have been on vivid display.

The initial results in the hours after polls close might not be determinative. States decide their own election procedures, and the order in which states count early, mail-in and Election Day votes varies across the map – as does how quickly certain cities, counties and regions report their results.

The most likely paths to 270 – and the presidency

Americans have become increasingly accustomed to incredibly close presidential races. In 2000, 2016 and 2020, the results came down to tens of thousands of votes. This race is expected, if the polling is correct, to fit in that mold.

That means, in the simplest terms, that there are seven states to watch on Tuesday night – and possibly beyond.

Arizona and Georgia went for Biden in 2020 after being reliably Republican for a generation. Democrats also won Nevada four years ago, though their margins there have been diminishing. Biden swept the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020. Trump did the same in 2016. The only 2024 battleground Trump won in the last election was North Carolina. It’s expected to be a close race there again.

So how should armchair analysts be gaming it out? With the usual caveat that anything can happen, and, in recent years, it often has – here are a few potential paths for Harris and Trump, respectively:

For Harris, the map is in many ways simpler. Repeat Biden’s “blue wall” sweep and she is almost surely destined for the Oval Office. That takes into account the expectation that she will win an electoral vote in Nebraska and lose another in Maine, two states that dole out electoral votes to both the statewide and congressional district-level winner.

If the “blue wall” cracks and Pennsylvania goes for Trump, her path becomes more complicated. The commonwealth has 19 electoral votes. Harris would need to make up that number by winning either Georgia and North Carolina, which both have 16. If she can only split the pair, Nevada and Arizona could become deciders.

Like Harris’, Trump’s map leans hard on Pennsylvania. If he wins there while holding on to North Carolina, the former president would only need Georgia to swing back to him to reach 270. Victory without Pennsylvania, for Trump, likely means the “blue wall” cracks somewhere else.

In that scenario, Trump would likely need to win Michigan or Wisconsin and supplement it with a dominant performance across the Sun Belt, from Georgia on the East Coast to Arizona and Nevada out west.

The red and blue ‘mirages’ to expect

Four years ago, with Trump undermining many Republican voters’ confidence in mail-in ballots, the early hours after polls closed showed a “red mirage” in several key swing states – with the initial returns looking better for Trump than the final results would show hours or days later.

A “mirage” in election results typically is the result of several factors, including geography (small, rural counties that tend to favor Republicans have fewer votes to count and report their results faster) and the types of ballots being counted — a reality to keep in mind if the early results from Michigan don’t include Detroit, and if those from Nevada don’t include Las Vegas.

States and counties also often count and report one method of voting – early votes, Election Day votes and mail-in ballots – at a time. When one party tends to perform better with a certain method, as Democrats did with mail-in voting in 2020, the results can shift as elections officials move from counting one type of vote to another.

Another factor – and one that helps to explain why a state the size of Florida reports its results so quickly – is how mail-in ballots are processed.

States set their own rules on when mail-in ballots can be opened. Two “blue wall” states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, prohibit local elections officials from beginning to process ballots until Election Day, slowing the counting process there compared to states like Florida, where they are opened ahead of time.

Those state laws led to a huge jump in Biden’s favor in 2020 in the early-morning hours in Wisconsin, when deep-blue Milwaukee reported a huge batch of mail-in votes that went overwhelmingly in the Democrat’s favor.

Other swing states have made changes since 2020. In Georgia, a new election law will likely lead to fewer mail-in votes and more early votes – which could mean quicker results. In North Carolina, mail-in votes are no longer accepted after Election Day, which could be a critical distinction if the outcome is on razor’s edge. And because most of the mail-in and early votes will be counted first there, the Tar Heel State could see a “blue mirage.”

In Arizona, a state that overwhelmingly votes by mail, those ballots are counted in the order they are received. That means Harris could see a sizable early lead, before late-arriving mail-in ballots and Election Day votes (both of which favored Trump in 2020) are counted.

Early indicators from the early reporting states

A definitive result in the presidential race may not come on Tuesday night, or even Wednesday for that matter, and the early counts from battleground states could be difficult to parse. But there will be some insight to glean from smaller contests, most notably House races in even solidly blue or red states.

Virginia, which has gone blue in presidential elections since Barack Obama’s first run, is typically one of the first states to report, and New York, despite being a Democratic stronghold statewide, has been targeted by massive spending from both parties focused on a series of swing-y suburban House contests.

In 2016, Virginia offered the first sign that Hillary Clinton was in trouble.

By then, the commonwealth had become reliably Democratic in presidential races but Clinton was barely scraping by for most of the night. She’d eventually win by about 5 points (Biden won it by more than 10 points in 2020). The reelection of then-Rep. Barbara Comstock that year, in a seat many Democrats were hopeful about flipping, also augured bad things for Clinton and her party.

This time out, Virginia’s 7th Congressional District could be the canary in either side’s coal mine. Victory for Eugene Vindman, the Democratic nominee, and a clear lead for Harris could spell trouble for Trump up and down the ballot.

New York, too, might seem like an unlikely place to go in search of national trends. But the state saw a “red wave” of sorts in 2022, with Gov. Kathy Hochul winning by only about 7 points and Republican House candidates flipping seats outside New York City.

This year, freshmen GOP Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams, in central New York, all enter Election Day looking vulnerable. Other first-term Republicans like Reps. Nick LaLota, on Long Island, and Mike Lawler, north of the city, are favorites in their races, but hardly locks for reelection.

The results in those races, whether Republicans or Democrats beat the expectations laid about above, will be almost as important as how they unfold. The fate of a statewide ballot measure, known as “Prop 1” or the “Equal Rights Amendment,” could also give voters across the country a sense of where things are headed. (The measure is expected to pass, but its margins outside of New York City could be telling.)

Simply put, both parties will be watching the returns closely for signs of a pink wave, or surge in turnout among women voters, that could be an early warning sign for Trump and Republicans anxious about a gender gap in polling that shows Harris with, in many cases, a larger lead among women than Trump has with men.

Can Republicans flip the Senate?

If the presidency and control of the House seemed like coin flips heading into Election Day, the fight for control of the Senate is expected to be much less dramatic.

Democrats currently hold a slim majority, with 51 senators – four of them independents – caucusing under Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York. For the party that wins the White House, 50 would be enough to secure a majority (because the vice president casts tie-breaking votes), but Republicans are on the offensive this year thanks to a friendlier map.

West Virginia, in particular, looks like a lock to swing to Republicans. In Montana, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is in a tough race with GOP nominee Tim Sheehy. Ditto for Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania. Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s retirement has also made a Senate battleground out of Michigan.

Republicans will likely win a majority if they can flip even one of those seats, so Democrats have next-to-no margin for error, as CNN’s Simone Pathe lays out.

Still, there are a few wild cards in play.

Rep. Colin Allred is running a spirited campaign against Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas, but Democrats haven’t won statewide there in ages. Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer could also be in some danger, but her challenger, Dan Osborn, is a true independent, so it’s unclear how he would vote in a Senate leadership contest.

Can Democrats win control of the House?

Republicans flipped control of the chamber in 2022 by the slightest of margins. This year, House Democrats – who typically do better in presidential election cycles – need a net gain of four seats to make Hakeem Jeffries, now the minority leader, the House speaker next year.

The fate of the House could take on even greater importance if Trump returns to the Oval Office and Republicans win the Senate. A GOP trifecta would give Trump close to carte blanche to pass his agenda into law. A Democratic majority would serve as a final bulwark against the former – and, in this case, future – president’s policies.

All 435 House seats are on the ballot, but only a handful of races are expected to be close. That means a few select districts will wield a disproportionate impact on the outcome, and CNN’s Terence Burlij listed 10 seats to watch on election night and beyond.

The current GOP majority was, in large part, delivered by swing districts in California and New York – especially on Long Island and north of New York City. Empire State Democrats have, in response, launched massive, coordinated campaigns – one helmed by state leaders and another by a labor-progressive coalition – aimed at winning back seats the party lost in 2022.

But as Election Day neared, other districts of interest emerged. New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District could be especially telling. GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr. won the seat in 2022 after redistricting made it more friendly to Republicans. Democrats redrew the map with an eye on protecting Reps. Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer, but effectively squeezed out Tom Malinowski, who lost that November to Kean Jr.

The district was mostly an afterthought when the campaign season began, but many observers now believe Democratic challenger Sue Altman has moved within striking distance of the incumbent. House Democrats’ largest super PAC was convinced enough that it decided to kick a reported $4 million into the race in its final weeks.

It takes 218 seats to make a majority in the House, so no single race will be definitive, but if Altman defeats Kean Jr. – a result that could be known relatively early in the evening – Democrats will see a wave building.

Will Trump declare victory early?

Not only is Trump’s 2020 playbook wide open, he’s added some new pages to the 2024 edition.

The main themes are the same. He’s already accused Democrats of cheating, warned that noncitizens are voting en masse and sowed doubt over mail-in and overseas ballots (where there’ll expected to break against him). The claims are all baseless, of course, but like four years ago there are millions of Americans primed to believe.

And then there is the simple math of vote-counting, which is expected to come under heavy scrutiny – and, in some cases, face outlandish slander – in swing states.

The math is expected to favor Trump in the earlier hours of the count, in part because of which states report and when. In 2020, mail-in ballots, which are not counted until Election Day or even after polls close in some critical states, broke heavily for Biden. That phenomenon created what’s been called a “red mirage” – the appearance that Trump and Republicans are winning big when, in reality, their votes were just being reported first.

It’s not clear yet if that dynamic will repeat itself this year. Trump has encouraged supporters to vote by any means, including mail, after discouraging it in 2020. Democrats, too, could behave differently now that the Covid-19 pandemic is less of a concern.

Still, the question remains: Will Trump declare victory before the race is truly decided? The conventional wisdom, shared by operatives across party lines, is that he will seize on an early lead, like he did four years ago, and announce himself as the president-elect.

That expectation has led Democrats and nonpartisan media to warn Americans that there is a significant possibility that the winner of the presidency will not be known for days after the polls close.

What’s less clear, even now, is whether – and if so, how – Trump and his allies might agitate to hold-up or close-down the process.

Deadlines and disinformation

Trump has long said that elections should be decided on the night they’re held. But doing so would disenfranchise many voters — especially in states where mail-in ballots only have to be postmarked by Election Day to be counted in the days that follow.

It’s a particularly critical distinction in states like California and New York, which aren’t competitive in presidential contests but are home to a swath of House races that could decide control of the chamber. Both states count votes received up to seven days after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked in time.

Most battlegrounds, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, require most or all mail-in ballots to be received by Election Day. But those ballots are processed more slowly in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And Nevada allows those postmarked by Election Day to be counted as long as they arrive within four days.

Both campaigns will be on close watch for isolated problems on Election Day — well aware that Trump has twisted some of those incidents to bolster his false claims that Harris is cheating.

Source:CNN

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Economic

GSR III Acquisition Corp. (GSRTU), a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), is preparing for an IPO that will raise $200 million. This upcoming IPO signals an exciting opportunity in the financial markets, as GSR III, led by experienced professionals in the SPAC space, plans to identify and acquire high-potential U.S.-based companies. With the SPAC market gaining momentum, investors are eager to understand the details of this IPO and what the acquisition vehicle may bring.

What Is GSR III Acquisition Corp.?

At its core, GSR III Acquisition Corp. is a blank-check company formed for the express purpose of raising capital through an IPO to merge with or acquire an existing private company. The goal is to take that private company public without the traditional IPO route, which can be lengthy and cumbersome. SPACs are often seen as a quicker and more efficient method for businesses to access public capital markets.

In this case, GSR III has set its sights on acquiring U.S.-based businesses, particularly those with a strong market position, financial stability, and the potential for substantial growth. The company plans to raise $200 million by offering 20 million units, each priced at $10. Each unit will include one share of common stock and three-quarters of a warrant, providing investors with the right to purchase additional shares at $11.50 per share, should they choose to exercise the warrant.

This offering positions GSR III to command a market valuation of around $262 million, highlighting the confidence investors have in the leadership team and the strategic vision behind the SPAC’s operations.

Experienced Leadership Driving the IPO

GSR III Acquisition Corp. is led by a team of experienced investment professionals with a proven track record in the SPAC space. The company’s co-CEOs are Gus Garcia and Lewis Silberman, both of whom have extensive backgrounds in SPAC operations and investment banking.

Gus Garcia is a former Head of SPAC M&A at Bank of America, bringing deep expertise in mergers and acquisitions to the table. His leadership experience in structuring high-profile deals gives investors confidence that GSR III will make well-informed acquisition decisions.

Lewis Silberman, the other co-CEO, was previously the Head of SPAC Equity Capital Markets at Oppenheimer & Co., where he gained a wealth of experience in guiding SPACs through public offerings and post-IPO activities.

The team also includes Anantha Ramamurti, the CFO, President, and Director of GSR III, who was a Managing Director at Bank of America Securities. Ramamurti's background in global mobility and banking further strengthens the company’s leadership capabilities and operational know-how.

Together, these leaders have a robust track record of successful SPAC transactions, including their recent involvement with GSR II Meteora Acquisition, which completed its merger with Bitcoin Depot, a cryptocurrency ATM operator. Their combined experience makes GSR III an appealing choice for investors looking for solid leadership in a competitive market.

Investment Focus: High-Potential U.S. Businesses

GSR III Acquisition Corp. intends to focus on acquiring high-potential businesses primarily based in the U.S. These companies will ideally possess several key characteristics:

Financial Stability: Businesses with a proven ability to generate revenue and maintain healthy financials.

Leading Market Position: Companies that hold a strong competitive position within their industry.

Resilient Barriers to Entry: Businesses with a unique product, service, or operational advantage that can help them maintain and expand market share.

By targeting companies that fit these criteria, GSR III hopes to deliver substantial value for its investors by backing businesses that are not only stable but also poised for future growth. This strategy aligns with the increasing trend of SPACs investing in established companies with a clear path to continued success.

The IPO Offering

As part of the GSRTU IPO, GSR III will offer 20 million units at an initial price of $10 per unit. The structure of each unit is a combination of one share of common stock and three-quarters of a warrant, which offers flexibility and upside potential for investors. This IPO structure is typical for SPAC offerings, providing investors with the chance to purchase additional shares at a future price, potentially enhancing their returns as the company identifies and completes its acquisition.

The net proceeds from this IPO will be used to fund the acquisition of one or more target businesses, enabling the company to grow its portfolio and provide shareholders with the potential for significant upside. SPACs are popular because of their ability to bypass some of the more traditional IPO hurdles, which can slow down the process of taking a company public.

What Does the Future Hold for GSRTU Investors?

The GSRTU IPO offers a unique opportunity for investors who are looking to gain exposure to the SPAC market and be part of a carefully curated acquisition strategy. With a solid leadership team, a clear investment focus on high-potential U.S. businesses, and a proven track record in SPAC management, GSR III Acquisition Corp. presents a promising proposition.

While the SPAC market has faced some scrutiny in recent years, the experience and pedigree of the team behind GSR III suggest that it has the potential to continue executing successful transactions. Investors who participate in the GSRTU IPO will not only have the opportunity to own shares in a rapidly growing SPAC but also benefit from the future growth of the businesses it acquires.

As the IPO date draws nearer, more details about the specific target companies that GSR III plans to acquire may come to light. For now, the focus remains on the upcoming public offering and the potential for long-term value creation in the SPAC market.

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