China’s Manufacturing Rebounds in June, but External Demand and Job Cuts Cloud Outlook

Economic

Summary:

China’s manufacturing sector returned to growth in June with a Caixin PMI of 50.4, driven by new orders and stronger production. However, employment fell and export demand remained weak...

Manufacturing Returns to Expansion but Recovery Remains Fragile

China’s private manufacturing activity edged back into expansion in June 2025, reflecting a modest rebound in domestic demand. The Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.4, a significant jump from May’s 48.3, and above the neutral 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction. This figure also exceeded market expectations and marked the sector’s first expansion in several months.

However, the rebound was uneven. While the increase in new domestic orders helped boost production, international demand continued to falter. The Caixin findings contrasted with the official manufacturing PMI released earlier, which reported contraction for the third consecutive month, highlighting a divergence between large state-owned and smaller private-sector firms.

Rising Domestic Orders Spur Output

June’s growth was primarily driven by a recovery in domestic demand. New orders rose for the first time since April, fueled by improving trade conditions and targeted promotional efforts by firms. This uptick translated into the strongest output levels since November 2024. The causal link between increased new orders and output expansion is clear—businesses responded directly to higher sales volumes by ramping up production.

The rise in demand also led to an accumulation of backlogged orders for the first time in three months, due to a simultaneous drop in workforce capacity. While this typically indicates healthy utilization of resources, the root cause—employment reductions—reveals deeper structural weaknesses.

Labor Market Pressure Signals Caution

Despite stronger activity, employment in China’s manufacturing sector declined again in June. Respondents attributed this to both voluntary resignations and layoffs, with many smaller exporters under pressure to cut wages or jobs to remain competitive. This signals a more troubling trend: while output is improving in the short term, job creation is not following suit, implying a decoupling between production growth and labor absorption—a worrying sign for long-term recovery sustainability.

This development suggests a correlation rather than causation between output gains and employment dynamics. The short-term production rise has not translated into job stability, hinting at companies' reluctance to commit to labor expansion amid fragile margins.

Deflationary Pressures Despite Rising Logistics Costs

Output prices fell at the sharpest rate since January, reflecting weak pricing power among manufacturers. This decline was supported by falling input costs, but export-related charges continued to rise due to more expensive logistics and shipping. The imbalance between falling domestic prices and higher export logistics costs underlines margin compression in the sector, especially for export-dependent businesses.

This divergence has resulted in uneven profitability. Some firms reported having to sell at a loss, a clear indicator of external challenges still facing the sector. In this case, causality is apparent: rising logistics expenses are directly pushing up export charges, while domestic price weakness stems from insufficient demand and strong competition.

Muted Business Confidence and Policy Outlook

Although the June PMI offered a glimmer of recovery, overall business confidence slipped from May and remained below the historical average. Companies remain cautious, with ongoing global uncertainties and unresolved domestic demand imbalances clouding the outlook.

Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the upcoming July Politburo meeting is unlikely to introduce major new stimulus measures, as Beijing appears moderately content with current macroeconomic performance. This suggests that significant government intervention is not imminent, even as key indicators such as employment and external demand remain under pressure.

Positive Signs in Trade Talks, But Limited Immediate Impact

On the trade front, recent developments offered limited relief. The United States and China reached an agreement over rare earth mineral shipments, continuing diplomatic progress initiated in May. While this may help ease some sector-specific bottlenecks, it does not directly impact broader manufacturing sentiment or export orders in the near term.

China’s return to manufacturing growth in June points to early signs of stabilization in the industrial sector. However, the improvement is largely driven by short-term domestic factors, while underlying challenges—particularly weak employment, soft export demand, and limited pricing power—persist. Without stronger policy support or a rebound in global demand, this recovery remains vulnerable to setbacks, and long-term momentum will depend on resolving deeper structural issues.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Moderate Optimism Emerges Among Japanese Manufacturers

Japan’s manufacturing sector has shown signs of cautious improvement despite ongoing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. According to the Bank of Japan’s latest Tankan survey released on Tuesday, the sentiment index for large manufacturers edged up to +13 in June from +12 in March. This mild increase follows the first dip in a year recorded last quarter. The Tankan index represents the difference between companies expecting favorable business conditions and those anticipating deterioration, serving as a bellwether for corporate confidence in Japan.

Persistent concerns remain about U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, particularly in sectors reliant on exports such as automotive and electronics. The Trump administration has introduced a 25% tariff on automobile imports and a 50% duty on steel and aluminum, measures that directly affect Japanese exporters like Toyota Motor Corporation. Furthermore, Japanese carmakers’ operations in Mexico face additional uncertainty due to a separate tariff framework targeting that country.

These policy shifts threaten to disrupt Japan’s tightly interwoven supply chains. However, the relationship between tariffs and business sentiment in Japan appears more correlational than directly causal, as Japanese automakers have sustained relatively stable global sales in recent months despite the pressure.

Yen Depreciation Supports Export Earnings

Currency movements have played a buffering role. The yen has depreciated significantly, with the exchange rate reaching approximately 140 yen per U.S. dollar—well above the 110 yen level seen five years ago. This weaker yen increases the value of overseas earnings for Japanese companies when repatriated, thereby offsetting part of the cost burden imposed by tariffs and rising input prices. The relationship here is causal: the yen’s depreciation directly boosts nominal export revenue, especially in sectors like automotive and high-tech manufacturing.

The Bank of Japan has kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% following a hike from 0.1% earlier this year, signaling a cautious approach to monetary tightening. Although further rate increases are expected, many analysts predict the central bank will hold off until 2026, particularly given the complex trade environment and mixed business sentiment. The Tankan data will play a key role in informing the policy board’s decisions at their meeting later this month.

Non-Manufacturing Sector Sentiment Slightly Declines

While manufacturing optimism showed marginal improvement, large non-manufacturing firms reported a slight dip in sentiment, with the index falling from +35 to +34. However, this was still better than analysts’ expectations, which had forecast a sharper decline. This indicates that domestic consumption and service-related industries remain relatively stable, though slightly more cautious.

Labor market conditions continue to support the broader economy. Japan’s unemployment rate stood at 2.5% in May, unchanged from the previous month. This sustained low unemployment reflects underlying economic resilience despite global headwinds.

Bilateral Frictions and Political Commentary

Political signals from Washington have added uncertainty. President Trump recently criticized Japan for not purchasing enough U.S. rice despite experiencing a domestic shortage, suggesting a letter to Japanese officials was forthcoming. Meanwhile, U.S. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett hinted at finalized trade frameworks with several countries, signaling that further negotiations could shape the tariff landscape in the near future.

While concerns over American protectionism continue to loom, Japan’s large manufacturers remain modestly optimistic, buoyed by favorable currency conditions and resilient global demand. However, continued diplomatic dialogue and careful monetary policy coordination will be critical in preserving this fragile balance. The slight improvement in business sentiment underscores Japan's adaptability but also highlights its vulnerability to external policy shifts.

Source: AP

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Economic

Political

• Hackers say they might try to sell emails from Trump aides

• Group leaked documents from Republican president's campaign last year

• US has said group known as Robert works for Iran's Revolutionary Guards

Iran-linked hackers have threatened to disclose more emails stolen fromU.S. President Donald Trump's circle, after distributing a prior batch to the media ahead of the 2024 U.S. election.

In online chats with Reuters on Sunday and Monday, the hackers, who go by the pseudonym Robert, said they had roughly 100 gigabytes of emails from the accounts of White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Trump lawyer Lindsey Halligan, Trump adviser Roger Stone and porn star-turned-Trump antagonist Stormy Daniels.

Robert raised the possibility of selling the material but otherwise did not provide details of their plans. The hackers did not describe the content of the emails.

U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi described the intrusion as "an unconscionable cyber-attack."

The White House and the FBI responded with a statement from FBI Director Kash Patel, who said: "Anyone associated with any kind of breach of national security will be fully investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law."

Halligan, Stone, a representative for Daniels and the U.S. cyberdefense agency CISA did not respond to requests for comment. Iran's mission to the United Nations did not return a message seeking comment. Tehran has in the past denied committing cyberespionage.

Robert materialized in the final months of the 2024 presidential campaign, when they claimed to have breached the email accounts of several Trump allies, including Wiles.

The hackers then distributed emails to journalists.

Reuters previously authenticated some of the leaked material, including an email that appeared to document a financial arrangement between Trump and lawyers representing former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - now Trump's health secretary.

Other material included Trump campaign communication about Republican office-seekers and discussion of settlement negotiations with Daniels.

Although the leaked documents did garner some coverage last year, they did not fundamentally alter the presidential race, which Trump won.

The U.S. Justice Department in a September 2024 indictment alleged that Iran's Revolutionary Guards ran the Robert hacking operation. In conversations with Reuters, the hackers declined to address the allegation.

After Trump's election, Robert told Reuters that no more leaks were planned. As recently as May, the hackers told Reuters, "I am retired, man." But the group resumed communication after this month's 12-day air war between Israel and Iran, which was capped by U.S. bombing of Iran's nuclear sites.

In messages this week, Robert said they were organizing a sale of stolen emails and wanted Reuters to "broadcast this matter."

American Enterprise Institute scholar Frederick Kagan, who has written about Iranian cyberespionage, said Tehran suffered serious damage in the conflict and its spies were likely trying to retaliate in ways that did not draw more U.S. or Israeli action.

"A default explanation is that everyone's been ordered to use all the asymmetric stuff that they can that's not likely to trigger a resumption of major Israeli/U.S. military activity," he said. "Leaking a bunch more emails is not likely to do that."

Despite worries that Tehran could unleash digital havoc, Iran's hackers took a low profile during the conflict. U.S. cyber officials warned on Monday that American companies and critical infrastructure operators might still be in Tehran's crosshairs.

Source: TradingView

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Devin

Economic

Oil prices edged down on Tuesday, weighed by expectations of an OPEC+ output hike in August and concerns of an economic slowdown driven by prospects of higher U.S. tariffs.

Brent crude futures for September delivery fell 16 cents, or 0.24%, to $66.58 a barrel by 0000 GMT. U.S.

West Texas Intermediate crude declined 20 cents, or 0.31%, to $64.91 a barrel.

"The market is now concerned that the OPEC+ alliance will continue with its accelerated rate of output increases," ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said in a note.

Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week that the group plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following similar hikes in May, June, and July.

If approved, this would bring OPEC+'s total supply increase for the year to 1.78 million bpd, equivalent to more than 1.5% of global oil demand. OPEC and its allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+, will meet on July 6.

Uncertainty about U.S. tariffs and their impact on global growth also kept a lid on oil prices.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs despite good-faith negotiations as a July 9 deadline approaches, when tariff rates are scheduled to revert from a temporary 10% level to President Donald Trump's suspended rates of 11% to 50% announced on April 2.

Morgan Stanley expects Brent futures to retrace to around $60 by early next year, with the market being well supplied and geopolitical risk abating following the Israel-Iran de-escalation. It expects an oversupply of 1.3 million bpd in 2026.

A 12-day war that started with Israel targeting Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13 pushed up Brent prices. They surged above $80 a barrel after the U.S. bombed Iran's nuclear facilities and then slumped to $67 after Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Thomas

Economic

The U.S. Senate has passed the GENIUS Act in a 68-30 vote, marking a significant step towards stablecoin regulation and eventual mainstream adoption in the United States.

This legislative move establishes a legal framework for stablecoins, potentially boosting capital inflow and signaling a shift in regulatory perspective amidst international actions. Immediate reactions include anticipation of increased market confidence.

U.S. Senate Endorses GENIUS Act for Stablecoin Regulation

The GENIUS Act has gained approval in the U.S. Senate, facilitating stablecoin regulation. This act aligns with international regulatory momentum and sets the stage for stablecoins to become mainstream financial instruments.

Key figures such as Christian Catalini and Joshua Chu support the regulation, emphasizing stablecoins' potential. The act enables tech and private-sector issuers to operate with clarity, significantly impacting the crypto landscape.

Regulatory Clarity Expected to Double Stablecoin Market Size

The GENIUS Act is expected to enhance market stability by providing a regulatory structure, supporting increased international and domestic investment in digital assets. Academic and industry leaders have expressed optimism about these developments.

Analysts predict stablecoin supply could double to over $400 billion by 2025, driven by regulatory measures and higher institutional participation. This aligns with ongoing trends witnessed in the European and Asian markets.

Global Influence: Learning from MiCA and HK's Ordinance

Past regulatory efforts, such as Europe's MiCA and Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance, set historical precedence for the GENIUS Act. These actions signal a global shift toward integrating stablecoins within traditional finance frameworks.

Experts like Christian Catalini emphasize stablecoins' potential to reshape financial systems, supported by historical analyses of similar uptakes. The act's approval could trigger further innovation and market alignment in digital finance.

Source: CryptoSlate

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Olivia Brooks

Political

China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

Digital services taxes targeting the revenue of big technology companies have returned as a flash point in President Donald Trump’s efforts to rewrite the rules of global trade.

Trump has long argued that these levies are discriminatory against US tech giants like Amazon.com Inc., Google owner Alphabet Inc. and Facebook owner Meta Platforms Inc. During his first term as president, Trump threatened to use tariffs to punish countries imposing digital taxes.

Now that he is back in office, tensions have flared again over who gets to tax the world’s largest firms, and how. Canada was the first to back down in the face of Trump’s ire. It decided to scrap its digital levy in late June — hours before it was due to go into effect — after Trump suspended trade talks with the country over what he called an “egregious” tax. The two countries have resumed talks.

Broadly speaking, digital services taxes are levies on the revenue that tech companies generate from users in a particular country, from activities such as targeted online advertising, streaming and the sale of data.

These taxes come in a variety of forms, with different thresholds and parameters. France was among the first nations to implement a digital services tax. In 2019, it introduced a 3% charge on revenue from targeted advertising and other digital services of companies with an annual revenue of at least €750 million ($879 million) globally and €25 million in France.

Other European countries followed, including Italy, Austria, Spain and the UK.

Canada was behind the curve. Its tax was passed into law in 2024 when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in office. From June 30 of this year, firms were meant to be on the hook for 3% of the digital services revenue generated from Canadian users above C$20 million ($14.6 million) in a calendar year.

The global economy is becoming more and more digitalized, running on flows of data. But the companies providing services often don’t have brick-and-mortar operations in every country they operate in.

Taxing companies based on their physical presence has thus become an increasingly ineffective method for governments to ensure the tax bills of tech companies match the value they derive from local customers.

Pressure to address perceived injustice in tax systems grew in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, when public outcry over bank bailouts spurred a push to tackle tax evasion.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development — a club of 38 mostly rich countries — has been working for years on a solution to rewrite the rules of how taxing rights are shared among jurisdictions. It has been hosting negotiations with more than 140 countries to adapt the international tax system.

Progress has been slow and regularly set back by the reigniting of trade tensions. Frustrated by the lack of momentum, European countries began to introduce digital services taxes as a stopgap measure — even as they recognized the controversial nature of levies based on revenue rather than profit.

The US asserts that digital services taxes are less about fairness and more about hobbling American tech firms.

In 2020, the first Trump administration announced plans to impose tariffs of 25% on goods imported from France, including makeup, soap and handbags.

These duties were suspended pending negotiations and the US ultimately reached a standstill agreement with multiple European governments, including that of France. Under this truce, the US shelved its punitive tariffs and these countries effectively agreed to refund any taxes in excess of what corporations will pay once the OECD’s global tax regime is in place.

Shortly after Trump was sworn into office this year, he ordered a reopening of the so-called Section 301 investigations launched during his first term into countries with digital services taxes, and to probe nations that have since developed such levies. These investigations lay the groundwork for the US to retaliate against trade practices it deems unfair to American interests, for example with tariffs.

Trump also instructed the US Treasury to notify the OECD that any commitments the US previously made to its tax negotiations have no force.

While Canada yielded to Trump, the UK and countries in the European Union have thus far held firm.

When the US struck a trade agreement with the UK in May, it said in a statement that it was “disappointed” that the British government was unwilling to withdraw its digital services tax.

US Treasury Scott Bessent previously said that these taxes were a sticking point in trade discussions with the EU. The EU’s ability to make concessions on this front is complicated by the fact that taxation is a national prerogative for the bloc’s member states, while trade is managed by the European Commission in Brussels.

In February, the French government ruled out undoing its digital services tax to appease Trump. The levy is a growing source of revenue at a time when France’s finance ministry is struggling to rein in the country’s budget deficit. The government expects the tax to bring in almost €775 million this year.

The renewed tensions around digital services taxes will refocus attention on the OECD’s efforts. Many countries have pledged to abolish their digital taxes if there is an international agreement on how to allocate the profits of multinationals for the purposes of taxation.

The hurdles to reaching a deal are high. Numerous treaties would have to be rewritten, and the US would likely lose some taxation rights to countries where its big digital firms operate.

Still, global tech companies have previously expressed support for the OECD’s initiative as a way of avoiding a mushrooming of different tax regimes around the world.

Moreover, as part of work toward a separate agreement on a global minimum corporate tax, the US signed off on a Group of Seven statement in June that spoke in favor of “constructive dialogue on the taxation of the digital economy.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Olivia Brooks

Political

China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

EU To Accept Trump's Universal Tariff But Seeks Key Exemptions, Bloomberg News Reports_1

The European Union is open to a trade agreement with the United States that would apply a universal 10% tariff on many of its exports, but the EU is seeking U.S. commitments to reduce tariffs in key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft, Bloomberg news reported on Monday.

EU is also pushing the U.S. to implement quotas and exemptions to effectively ease Washington's 25% tariff on automobiles and auto parts, as well as its 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.