China to Keep 2026 GDP Growth Target at 5% Despite Economy Warning Signs

Forex

Economic

Summary:

China is lining up a 5% GDP growth target for 2026, keeping the same number it used this year, according to government advisers and analysts.

That target puts pressure on policymakers to keep fiscal spending and monetary easing wide open as they try to break a lingering deflation cycle.

The goal is being shaped behind closed doors and is tied directly to the start of the 15th five-year plan, a period meant to reset the pace after years of strain across the economy.

The 5% target is meant to give the new five-year plan a strong launch while officials try to shake off years of damage from a long property slump, soft consumer demand, excess factory capacity, and falling infrastructure-led investment.

Leaders have already signaled a shift toward boosting household consumption and pushing structural economic change over the next five years.

But advisers say those moves take time to work. For now, the short-term fix stays focused on government spending and central bank action.

Beijing pushes fiscal and rate tools

Most advisers who spoke allegedly said they back a 5% growth target for 2026. A smaller group suggested a slightly lower range of 4.5% to 5%.

Top officials are expected to approve the final number at the Central Economic Work Conference later this month, where next year's economic priorities will be locked in. The public will not see the target until March, when it is released at the annual parliament meeting.

The advisers are not formal decision-makers and asked to stay unnamed because the talks are private. Their views closely match the wider consensus among private economists. Last year's agenda-setting meeting ran from December 11 to December 12.

One adviser allegedly said directly, "We should set a target of around 5% for 2026, the first year of the 15th five-year plan. There will be certainly challenges in achieving this, but there is room to maneuver with both fiscal and monetary policy."

Most of these advisers also want the budget deficit ratio to stay near 4% or slightly above. China already set a record 4% of GDP deficit this year to support growth. On the oil side, demand is not offering any near-term lift.

Janet Kong, chief executive officer of Hengli Petrochemical International Pte, said oil demand will likely stay weak until at least the middle of next year. "It's difficult to find a very bright spot unless the government rolls out new policy at beginning of next year," Janet said on the sidelines of the Financial Times Commodities Asia Summit in Singapore.

China remains the world's largest crude oil importer, but slow growth, trade battles triggered by President Donald Trump, and the rising electrification of transport are holding back fuel use. Even petrochemicals, long seen as one of the few demand bright spots, are under pressure from overcapacity.

Janet also pointed to a possible shift in global demand, saying oil demand may strengthen more in West of Suez markets than in East of Suez, with the United States and traditional OECD economies expected to see growth.

Central bank and subsidies stay in play

On the policy front, Citi analysts expect China's central bank to restart interest rate cuts as early as January 2026, after its last cut in May. The period following the Central Economic Work Conference is also seen as a key window for another round of incremental property support.

On the fiscal side, Citi said in a note that government bond issuance could once again be front-loaded in 2026, with a slow shift toward consumer support and welfare spending.

The government is also expected to keep its consumer goods trade-in subsidies in place next year. Those subsidies totaled 300 billion yuan, about $42.43 billion, this year. Officials are discussing a possible shift of some funds away from goods and into services, but the overall support program is expected to remain active in 2026.

Longer term, China faces a strict math problem. An official study tied to the five-year plan proposals said the country needs average annual growth of 4.17% over the next decade to double per capita GDP to $20,000 from its 2020 level. That milestone would mark a formal transition to what officials call a moderately developed country.

Because of the slowing economy, policymakers are expected to keep ambitious annual growth targets over the next several years to protect policy flexibility later on, according to advisers and economists.

At the same time, the new five-year plan, which will be released at the parliament meeting, is not expected to set a fixed growth target for 2026 through 2030, keeping the same practice used in the current plan.

Source: CryptoSlate

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Adam

Cryptocurrency

The fourth quarter of this year has been a tough period for Bitcoin. Since the start of October, the world’s most widely traded digital currency has fallen nearly 25%, touching lows around $80,000 per coin. The downward move has been largely driven by capital outflows, including roughly $400 million exiting the market on Monday alone.

The situation worsened after China’s central bank issued a direct warning about illegal activities linked to the digital currency industry and reinforced its stance against unlawful crypto operations.

Recent buying momentum, which pushed Bitcoin back above the $90,000 mark and briefly past the $90,000 barrier again, has offered some relief to buyers. This renewed demand has given the market a short pause and raised expectations that broader declines may be slowing, at least for now.

Pending Return of Capital Inflows

Over the weekend, Bitcoin trading saw a sharp surge in selling pressure. A key trigger was the People’s Bank of China, which once again issued firm warnings about the wider cryptocurrency sector. The central bank’s statement reinforces that cryptocurrencies hold no official or regulated status in China, and using them as a payment method is illegal.

Whether this warning will lead to concrete restrictions or tighter monitoring remains uncertain. In reality, millions of Chinese users can still access overseas platforms for crypto trading, highlighting the gap between policy and practical enforcement.

Two main fundamental factors help explain the recent downward move in Bitcoin. First, the new US administration has taken limited steps so far to make the crypto sector more attractive in the United States. Second, the pause in interest rate cuts has weighed on riskier assets, a category that strongly includes Bitcoin. The impact of rates may ease soon, as a 25 basis point cut later this month looks increasingly likely and could offset the pressure.

Bitcoin also tends to move in cycles. After long periods of growth, it often enters deep corrections, a phase widely called crypto winter. If this historical pattern plays out again, a sustained return to a strong upward trend may come only in the final quarter of next year. In this scenario, momentum could rebuild gradually, with a sharper recovery possible in the last quarter of 2026.

In the short term, capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will be a key indicator to watch. By the end of last week, these funds showed almost no inflow activity, reflecting weak institutional demand. If this trend persists, Bitcoin could trade within a broad consolidation zone around $93,000 per coin until either buyers or sellers regain clear control.

Bitcoin Struggles to End Broad Correction

The swift rejection of the recent selloff in Bitcoin prices supports a cautiously optimistic view that the broader downtrend could pause. Right now, the $93,000 area stands as the main resistance level. A close above it clears a path toward the intersection of the falling trend line and the next resistance band near $99,000 per coin, offering buyers a setup to push for higher ground toward $99,000 and beyond.

Bitcoin: A Clean Breakout Above $93K Could Open the Path Toward $99K_1

If the level holds, the market could move into the consolidation phase discussed earlier, with the closest support at about $84,000 per BTC. This range-bound trend remains a realistic outcome if buyers fail to break higher and sellers keep pressure active.

Source: investing

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Forex

Economic

U.S. import prices were unexpectedly unchanged in September as high costs for consumer goods, excluding motor vehicles, were offset by cheaper energy products.

The flat reading in import prices reported by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday followed a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, rising 0.1% after a previously reported 0.3% advance in August.

In the 12 months through September, import prices increased 0.3%. That was the first year-on-year rise since March and followed a 0.1% dip in August.

The report was delayed by a record 43-day shutdown of the government. The pass-through from tariffs to consumer prices has so far been modest, with economists saying businesses were opting to absorb the duties.

Economists, however, continue to expect an acceleration in the pass-through pace, arguing that a continued decline in margins at businesses was unsustainable and could hamper spending on capital and labor. The government last week reported a surge in producer prices for goods in September, mostly driven by higher food and energy costs.

Imported fuel prices dropped 1.5% in September after easing 0.5% in August. Natural gas prices declined 3.0%. Food prices decreased 0.8%. Excluding fuels and food, import prices rose 0.3%. Core import prices increased by the same margin in August. In the 12 months through September, they advanced 0.8%.

That partly reflects dollar weakness against the currencies of the main U.S. trade partners. The trade-weighted dollar is down about 5.6% this year.

Federal Reserve officials will meet next week to decide on interest rates. As many as five of the 12 voting policymakers on the central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee have voiced opposition to or skepticism about cutting rates further, while a core of three members of the Washington-based Board of Governors wants rates to fall.

Prices for imported consumer goods excluding motor vehicles increased 0.4%, matching August's rise. Imported capital goods prices fell 0.2% while those for motor vehicles, parts and engines were unchanged.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Justin

Political

Economic

The Trump administration on Tuesday said it paused all immigration applications, including green card and U.S. citizenship processing, filed by immigrants from 19 non-European countries, citing concerns over national security and public safety.

The pause applies to people from 19 countries that were already subjected to a partial travel ban in June, placing further restrictions on immigration - a core feature of U.S. President Donald Trump's political platform.

The list of countries includes Afghanistan and Somalia.

The official memorandum outlining the new policy cites the attack on U.S. National Guard members in Washington last week in which an Afghan man has been arrested as a suspect. One member of the National Guard was killed and another was critically wounded in the shooting.

Trump has also stepped up rhetoric against Somalis in recent days, calling them "garbage" and saying "we don't want them in our country."

Since returning to office in January, Trump has aggressively prioritized immigration enforcement, sending federal agents to major U.S. cities and turning away asylum seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border. His administration has frequently highlighted the deportation push but until now it has put less emphasis on efforts to reshape legal immigration.

The flurry of promised restrictions since the attack on National Guard members suggests an increased focus on legal immigration framed around protecting national security and casting blame on former President Joe Biden for his policies.

The list of countries targeted in Wednesday's memorandum includes Afghanistan, Burma, Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen, which were subjected to the most severe immigration restrictions in June, including a full suspension on entries with a few exceptions.

Others on the list of 19 countries, which were subjected to partial restrictions in June, are Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan and Venezuela.

The new policy places a hold on pending applications and mandates that all immigrants from the list of countries "undergo a thorough re-review process, including a potential interview and, if necessary, a re-interview, to fully assess all national security and public safety threats."

The memorandum cited several recent crimes suspected to have been committed by immigrants, including the National Guard attack.

Sharvari Dalal-Dheini, senior director of government relations for the American Immigration Lawyers Association, said the organization had received reports of cancelled oath ceremonies, naturalization interviews and adjustment of status interviews for individuals from countries listed on the travel ban.

Source: TradingView

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Commodity

Retail demand continues to dominate the precious metals market, according to trade data from the CME Group.

On Tuesday, the world's leading derivatives marketplace said that trading volume last month was the second-highest on record. The exchange saw an average daily volume (ADV) of 33.1 million contracts in November, an increase of 10% year-over-year.

Specifically in the metals sector, the CME said total average daily volume increased 52% last month, driven by smaller gold and silver contracts.

According to the monthly data, Micro Gold futures — one-tenth the size of a regular 100-ounce contract — saw ADV of 476,000 contracts, a 235% increase from last year.

Not surprisingly, given the price action, silver attracted significant attention last month. Silver futures saw ADV of 108,000 contracts, up 22% from November 2024. At the same time, micro silver futures — one-fifth the size of the 5,000-ounce silver futures — saw average volume of 75,000 contracts, up 238% from last year.

Analysts have said that retail investment demand has been the critical factor behind the recent surge in silver. Last month, silver futures rallied 18.6%, marking their best monthly performance since July 2020.

Most of silver’s gains came in the final week of November as prices rallied 14.5%, breaking above $55 an ounce for the first time on record. Silver’s breakout rally also came after trading on the CME was halted for 10 hours overnight following a technical disruption. Trading resumed Friday morning at the start the North America session.

Silver prices have continued their parabolic rally into December, with prices last trading at $59.275 an ounce, up 0.23% on the day. Meanwhile, silver prices are up more than 100% so far this year.

Although silver prices could see renewed volatility at their new record highs, analysts note that the precious metal’s uptrend remains well supported as robust demand continues to outweigh dwindling supply.

Chris Mancini, co-Portfolio Manager of GOLDX at Gabelli Funds, said in a note Tuesday that silver is still an attractive value play compared to gold.

“The long term ratio of gold to silver is around 68. That means the price of gold, per ounce, divided by the price of silver per ounce, is long term around 68. Today, it stands around 74. So, I think that there's a chance for silver to really catch up and and trade at that long term average of around 68 — that would mean the price of silver would go from $58 today to around $65 per ounce,” he said.

Source: Kitco

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Beijing Targets Strong Start to 15th Five-Year Plan

As China prepares to unveil its 15th five-year development blueprint in 2026, government advisers and economists anticipate that Beijing will retain its existing annual GDP growth target of “around 5%.” This projection aligns with the state’s intent to restore economic momentum following a prolonged deflationary environment and a persistent real estate downturn.

The Central Economic Work Conference, typically held in December, is expected to set the tone for 2026. Although the final target will be publicly announced in March, early consensus among advisers points to a continuation of stimulus policies, particularly as top leadership remains focused on preserving macroeconomic stability and ensuring policy maneuverability in a low-growth global landscape.

Stimulus Expected to Continue Amid Structural Challenges

The push for 5% growth is grounded in the recognition that deeper structural reforms will take time to yield meaningful outcomes. Analysts and policymakers suggest that without continued fiscal and monetary easing, China’s economy could remain stuck in a deflationary loop a condition now persisting for nearly three years.

Advisers propose maintaining the budget deficit at or slightly above 4% of GDP, a level already considered historic for China. On the monetary side, Citi economists predict that the People’s Bank of China could restart interest rate cuts by January 2026, alongside additional targeted support for the property sector.

This reflects a short-term prioritization of demand management tools including bond-financed investment and subsidies over immediate implementation of longer-term structural reforms. For example, the government plans to sustain its 300 billion yuan consumer trade-in subsidy program and may expand its focus to include services, in a bid to stimulate consumption.

Deflation Risks Linger Despite Policy Support

Despite efforts to revive momentum, price indicators suggest that deflation will remain entrenched. Morgan Stanley forecasts a 0.7% drop in the GDP deflator in 2026, with only a modest 0.2% recovery in 2027 signaling that real economic rebalancing may not occur until at least that year. This would mark four consecutive years of deflation, a rare occurrence for a major economy.

This ongoing imbalance is causally linked to the excess capacity in manufacturing, sluggish household spending, and faltering real estate investment. While factory output continues to rise, domestic demand has failed to catch up, leading to falling prices and intense price wars among firms.

Long-Term Goals Hinge on Consumption Reforms

At the heart of China’s structural challenge is the need to transition from an investment- and export-led model to one driven by household consumption. Currently, consumption accounts for roughly 40% of GDP far below the U.S. share of nearly 70%. The government has pledged to “significantly” raise the consumption share over the next five years, with some advisers suggesting a target of 45%.

Achieving this goal will require major reforms, including:

Expanding the welfare system to boost household disposable income

Addressing the hukou (internal passport) system that limits rural migrants’ access to public services in cities

Redirecting resources from state-led investment to direct household support

These changes would enable more balanced and sustainable growth, but also demand political capital and structural flexibility that cannot be mobilized overnight. Consequently, short-term stimulus remains the dominant policy tool for 2026.

Strategic Growth Targets to Preserve Flexibility

By setting a moderately ambitious growth goal of 5%, Chinese leaders hope to preserve both investor confidence and policy flexibility for future years. According to an official study, China needs to grow at an average annual rate of 4.17% over the next decade to double per capita GDP to $20,000 by 2035 a milestone aligned with its goal of becoming a “moderately developed country.”

The five-year plan, due in March 2026, is unlikely to fix a hard growth target for 2026–2030, continuing the trend from the prior cycle. Instead, annual growth goals will be set each year to reflect evolving global and domestic conditions.

Growth Versus Rebalancing in 2026

China’s decision to pursue a 5% growth target in 2026 reflects both its near-term imperative to overcome deflation and its strategic intent to launch the next development cycle on a strong note. However, while stimulus measures will likely deliver headline growth, the deeper challenge of shifting toward a consumption-driven model remains unresolved.

With global uncertainties mounting and domestic imbalances widening, 2026 may be a year of managing symptoms rather than curing root causes unless Beijing accelerates long-awaited structural reforms that put households at the center of its growth narrative.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

News overnight that the Trump administration had abruptly cancelled interviews with finalists for the Fed chair nomination has firmed up the view that Kevin Hassett will replace Jerome Powell next May. The market response to Hassett’s dovish leaning is a weaker US Dollar, a steeper yield curve, and a rally in risk assets.

USD: Hassett in play

The US dollar sold off in Asia as news emerged that interviews for the Fed chair position had been cancelled. In theory, the likes of Christopher Waller were meant to be meeting Vice President Vance today. Instead, the news is being taken that President Trump has already made up his mind – he said as much on Air Force One last weekend.

And the president’s pick will likely be Kevin Hassett, who is currently Director of the National Economic Council and whose views are seen as most closely aligned with the president. Heading into Thanksgiving, betting markets gave roughly a 35% probability for both Hassett and Waller as the next Fed chair. This week, Hassett’s probability has shot up to 85%.

Overnight price action has provided a mini-preview of what we can expect should it become even clearer that Hassett will succeed Powell. Given perceptions of Hassett as quite dovish, the US dollar is a little weaker across the board, the yield curve has seen some modest bullish steepening and risk assets have turned gently bid. This could be the dominant theme until next week’s FOMC meeting. Speaking to buy-side customers recently, some were looking to fade US dollar weakness on the Hassett announcement effect, ultimately betting that he would not be as dovish or be allowed to be as dovish given the nature of the FOMC voting process.

Away from the Hassett news, we have two pieces of US data today. Expectations are that the November ADP jobs release will soften to 10k from 42k prior. That should not move the needle on the 92% probability attached to a 25bp Fed cut next week. And we’ll also get to see the ISM Services figure for November. The market could potentially react to the employment component figure, which last month was still in contractionary territory at 48.

We still don’t think the US dollar has fully connected with the recent drop in short-dated US rates, and a break of 99.00 in DXY could trigger some bearish momentum.

EUR: Hedging costs are falling

EUR/USD found a bid in Asia on the Hassett news. In the background, however, there is some more supporting evidence for the rally. Softer energy prices are sending the eurozone’s terms of trade to the highest levels of the year and supporting the eurozone’s external accounts. And perhaps more importantly, hedging costs for eurozone residents wanting to insure against FX losses on US assets have now dropped to 1.85% p.a. when looking at the three-month forwards. These had been at 2.40% in July.

While a 55bp drop in hedging costs might not seem like a lot, it is a big deal for bond investors who typically deal in more conservative returns. And for reference, at the end of the second quarter this year, eurozone investors held about €800bn of US sovereign debt and €1.5tr of other US debt securities. Therefore, some modest increase in hedge ratios can lead to quite a supply of US dollars. Over the next couple of weeks, we should probably look out for buy-side US dollar selling at key FX fixes.

In Europe, the focus remains very much on the Ukraine peace talks. Unsurprisingly, there seems to have been little progress in US-Russian talks yesterday. The focus today could be on the European Commission’s proposal to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine. Political analysts widely feel that this loan is essential to fund Ukraine’s ability to defend itself after the second quarter of next year. Failure to deliver this funding, either through Belgium’s reluctance to use the assets frozen in Euroclear or Hungary’s opposition to further funding for Ukraine, would weaken Ukraine’s negotiating position.

If EUR/USD can nudge through the 1.1655/70 area – perhaps with the help of some softer US data – we could see a decent move through 1.17. We retain a year-end target of 1.18.

PLN: Zloty offers asymmetric response to unpredictable NBP

The National Bank of Poland is expected to cut rates again by 25bp to 4.00% today. After weaker inflation and wages last week, this seems to be the market consensus view. The central bank will work with the November forecast and today’s meeting will only bring the MPC’s statement. Therefore, the focus will be on the wording and possible forward guidance. However, the main event will be tomorrow’s press conference of Governor Adam Glapinski.

After the weaker data, the market has shifted again to a more dovish direction and is currently pricing in the terminal rate at 3.50%. This week, the rates market has seen a smaller rebound following the core rates rally last week. Although 3.50% seems like a fair value in line with our forecast, it cannot be ruled out that with the declining inflation profile, the central bank will also be more dovish. In the past, we have seen frequent changes in the terminal rate communication in the range of 3.00-4.00%. At the same time, we also heard that 4.00% could be the first level to stop the cutting cycle and wait for more data and the impact of previous steps. The markets will closely review these details.

We maintain the view that PLN is in an asymmetric situation and we are slightly bullish. If the central bank were to surprise in a dovish direction, it would be nothing new for the market, and after the move in rates last week, we do not see much room here and FX would probably remain rather unchanged. On the other hand, a hawkish surprise, e.g. the announcement of a longer pause despite lower inflation numbers, would probably lead to a more significant repricing of rates and new support for FX.

At the same time, we continue to monitor the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and any progress here would also support the zloty. EUR/PLN is at the bottom of the usual range of 4.230-270 but as we discussed here in previous days, the conditions indicate that we can see a breakthrough of the lower bound and test 4.220 again.

Asia: Mixed news

Asian FX is ending the year with some volatility. USD/INR has pushed above the 90 area as a lack of a US trade deal weighs. Presumably, there will be much focus on external accounts as well to see whether a shift away from Russian crude imports has increased the energy bill a lot. In our FX outlook, we had felt that the rupee was due for a comeback, but clearly delays in the trade deal with the US are taking their toll.

Elsewhere, we see USD/CNH continuing to grind lower. This had been happening even before a clear move lower in the US dollar. We’re not sure whether it relates to foreign portfolio inflows into China or just Chinese exporters finally offloading their export earnings. Yet local authorities have had USD/CNY fully under control this year and are clearly allowing this renminbi appreciation. Here, we think they might be favouring a stronger CNY to support domestic demand, as they shift away from their long-held export model. Our team sees USD/CNY heading down to the 6.90 area next year.