China Cuts Key Interest Rates Ahead of U.S. Trade Talks in Switzerland

China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

Summary:

In a surprise move just hours after confirming high-level trade negotiations with the U.S., China slashed key interest rates and reserve requirements to stabilize its economy...

Monetary Easing as a Preemptive Buffer Against Tariff Shocks

On May 7, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut its benchmark 7-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points, lowering it from 1.5% to 1.4%. Governor Pan Gongsheng indicated that this reduction would also influence the country's Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which serves as a key benchmark for corporate and household borrowing.

In a parallel measure, the central bank announced a 50 basis point cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for commercial banks. This move is expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan (around $138.6 billion USD) into the financial system, aiming to boost liquidity and counteract downward economic pressure.

The measures were announced at a press briefing attended by senior officials from the National Financial Regulatory Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, signaling broad institutional alignment on monetary policy strategy.

Trade War Escalation Sparks Financial Policy Shift

The monetary stimulus came shortly after Beijing confirmed that Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Switzerland later this week to resume long-stalled trade talks. The discussions are set to focus on tariffs and broader commercial relations, following the Trump administration’s latest move to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%.

In response, Beijing imposed its own set of retaliatory tariffs at 125%, further straining trade flows between the world’s two largest economies and fueling market volatility.

These developments have raised the stakes for both sides, with financial markets looking to the Switzerland meeting as a potential breakthrough moment. Although the talks are not expected to yield an immediate trade deal, they represent the first official high-level engagement since the tariff escalation, offering a possible off-ramp from further confrontation.

Market Outlook and Economic Signaling

Analysts view China’s rate cuts and liquidity boost as both a signal of internal economic fragility and a strategic move to cushion potential shocks from prolonged trade tensions. With global demand weakening and China’s domestic consumption still underperforming, the policy mix indicates a shift toward proactive stabilization.

Moreover, these moves may be designed to reassure investors and encourage private sector lending at a time when sentiment has been weakened by stock market turbulence and ongoing uncertainty over regulatory direction.

China’s unexpected monetary easing underscores the urgency of its economic challenges and highlights the geopolitical weight of the upcoming trade talks in Switzerland. While immediate breakthroughs remain unlikely, the coordinated policy action suggests Beijing is preparing both economically and diplomatically for a prolonged period of negotiation—and confrontation—with Washington.

Source: CNBC

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Commodity

Political

Strategic Phase-Out to Undermine Russia’s Energy Leverage

According to senior EU officials speaking to Reuters, the European Commission plans to present legal proposals in June that would prohibit any new imports of Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), including spot market purchases, by the end of this year. In addition, existing long-term contracts will be legally required to expire or be terminated before the end of 2027.

The proposed roadmap, still subject to revision, will require approval from both the European Parliament and a reinforced majority of EU member states to become law. Its core goal is to institutionalize what began as an informal policy shift: ending Europe’s decades-long dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

Political Resistance and Legal Complexities Remain

Despite progress since 2022—when Russian gas accounted for about 40% of EU supply—the bloc still receives approximately 19% of its gas imports from Russia, via the TurkStream pipeline and LNG shipments. Some member states, notably Slovakia and Hungary, continue to resist full disengagement due to structural reliance on Russian pipeline gas.

EU sanctions thus far have focused on coal and seaborne oil, while natural gas has remained untouched, largely because of binding “take-or-pay” contracts with Gazprom. Under such contracts, buyers must pay for agreed volumes regardless of actual delivery.

The Commission is exploring legal avenues to enable companies to exit these contracts without incurring penalties. However, legal experts caution that invoking “force majeure” or similar clauses may be difficult to justify, and unilateral contract terminations could trigger international arbitration or financial liabilities.

Shift Toward U.S. LNG and Alternative Suppliers

The EU’s ambition to phase out Russian gas also aligns with its strategy to diversify energy partnerships. This includes increasing LNG imports from the United States—an idea repeatedly promoted by former U.S. President Donald Trump as a way to reduce the EU's trade surplus with Washington.

According to Rystad Energy, around 31% of the Russian LNG imported by the EU last year came through spot trades, which are more susceptible to political and regulatory constraints. Curbing such transactions could deliver a swift and symbolic blow to Moscow’s revenues, though the Commission has emphasized that any new restrictions must harm Russia more than they hurt the EU.

Balancing Strategic Objectives with Energy Stability

The planned phase-out represents the EU’s strongest stance yet on ending energy ties with Russia, but it also underscores the delicate balance between geopolitics and energy security. The Commission has acknowledged that any action must be tempered by considerations of domestic energy prices and winter preparedness.

Notably, the publication of this roadmap—initially expected in March—was delayed due to uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. A breakthrough in diplomacy could reshape sanctions policy, forcing the EU to reassess the utility and timing of its planned measures.

The EU's roadmap to eliminate Russian gas imports by 2027 signals a decisive shift in its energy doctrine, aiming to lock in geopolitical independence while managing the economic fallout. Success will hinge not only on legislative backing and infrastructure upgrades but also on political unity across a bloc increasingly divided over how to confront Moscow’s energy dominance.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Unprecedented Trade Imbalance Driven by Tariff Fear

According to data released on May 6 by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the trade deficit widened by 14% from February, setting a new all-time high. Imports surged as American firms accelerated shipments to beat the April implementation of sweeping new tariffs—particularly the 145% duty imposed on goods from China under President Donald Trump’s revised trade agenda.

In March alone, total imports rose 4.4% to a record $419 billion, while imported goods specifically increased 5.4% to $346.8 billion. Conversely, exports showed only marginal growth of 0.2%, reaching $278.5 billion. Within this, goods exports rose 0.7% to $183.2 billion, also a record high, but insufficient to offset the ballooning import bill.

Tariff Strategy Weighs Heavily on U.S. GDP

This surge in imports came at a steep economic cost. Government estimates confirmed that the trade deficit subtracted a massive 4.83 percentage points from GDP growth in Q1 2025, leading to an annualized economic contraction of 0.3%—the sharpest trade-related drag in recent history and the first quarterly decline since Q1 2022.

President Trump’s blanket tariff policies have sparked a complex reaction among trading partners and markets. Although retaliatory tariffs on most U.S. allies were temporarily paused for 90 days, the duties on Chinese imports took effect as scheduled on April 1. The urgency to stockpile goods ahead of these tariffs caused a front-loading of imports that distorted the trade balance and macroeconomic indicators.

Short-Term Import Boom, Long-Term Export Risk

Economists forecast that the import frenzy will likely subside starting in May, potentially helping GDP recover in Q2. However, there are growing concerns that any positive impact from slowing imports could be offset by weakening exports. Several nations have reportedly begun informal boycotts of U.S. goods and travel services in response to what they describe as punitive tariff policies, immigration crackdowns, and controversial remarks by Trump regarding Canada and Greenland.

The net effect, analysts warn, may be a prolonged dampening of U.S. export momentum just as global demand begins to fragment under increasing geopolitical strain.

Fragile Economic Balancing Act

While the March trade data underscores the immediate market impact of tariff-driven behaviors, it also highlights the vulnerabilities of a trade policy centered on aggressive protectionism. The record deficit not only reflects distorted import behavior but also raises broader concerns about sustainability, competitiveness, and global trust in the U.S. economic system.

Without a coordinated de-escalation or clearer trade strategy, the risk of further economic turbulence—both domestically and globally—remains high as the second quarter unfolds.

Source: Reuters

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Commodity

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Trump Links Oil Prices to Peace Prospects

Speaking to reporters at the Oval Office on May 5, President Trump stated that falling oil prices have placed Russia in a weaker position economically, increasing its willingness to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. “I think Russia, with oil prices where they are now, wants a resolution. Ukraine wants a resolution. We’re in a good position to get something done,” Trump said.

Since the start of 2025, oil prices have dropped by around $15 per barrel, cutting into one of Russia’s key revenue streams. Trump suggested that this decline may have softened Moscow’s posture, referencing President Vladimir Putin’s recent proposal for a temporary ceasefire to mark the 80th anniversary of the Allied victory in World War II as a “positive step.”

“This three-day ceasefire may not seem like much, but it means a lot when you consider how far we've come,” Trump noted. “This war should never have happened.”

Kremlin Pushes Back

In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov pushed back firmly against Trump’s comments, rejecting the idea that oil prices have any bearing on Russia’s military strategy in Ukraine. “The conflict has nothing to do with oil revenues,” Peskov said. “It is driven by threats to our national security and the West’s consistent refusal to address Russia’s legitimate concerns.”

The Kremlin’s response reinforces its longstanding position that NATO expansion and Western military support for Ukraine are the root causes of the war, not economic calculations.

Nord Stream Attack Question Reignites Controversy

During the same press conference, Trump was asked whether he would reopen an investigation into the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline explosions — a sabotage event that remains unresolved. His answer, delivered with skepticism, hinted at doubts over widely circulated claims that Russia was behind the attack.

“They say Russia did it,” Trump remarked with a smirk, adding, “I think a lot of people know who actually did it.” This veiled suggestion aligns with Trump’s pattern of resisting direct blame on Moscow and leaving room for alternative narratives.

The Nord Stream pipelines, which transported Russian gas to Germany through the Baltic Sea, were severely damaged by underwater explosions in September 2022. While Western sources, including major U.S. media, have pointed to pro-Ukrainian actors as possible culprits—based on intelligence leaks—Russia has accused the U.S. and U.K. of orchestrating the sabotage, though it has presented no conclusive evidence.

Energy and War Intersect in Broader Strategy

Trump’s argument underscores a broader belief that economic pressure through energy markets can shape geopolitical outcomes. However, analysts note that the effectiveness of such leverage is mixed. While falling oil revenues may constrain Russia’s budget, the country has shown resilience through alternative markets and by tightening control over domestic economic policies.

Furthermore, the Kremlin’s rejection of the oil-peace link signals that any diplomatic breakthrough will require more than commodity price shifts—it will depend on deeper security assurances and political compromise.

As diplomatic speculation swirls, Trump’s comments once again spotlight his unconventional approach to international affairs—combining economic logic, public overtures to adversaries, and a healthy dose of ambiguity. Meanwhile, Russia’s firm rejection of any oil-related pressure suggests that a negotiated end to the Ukraine conflict remains elusive, regardless of market fluctuations.

Source: Reuters

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Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. China agrees to talk to the U.S., He Lifeng will meet with Bessent.

2. PBOC cuts reserve ratio and rates.

3. U.S. 2-year treasury yield drops as trade deficit renews economic concerns.

4. Kazakhstan is considering its options for complying with its OPEC+ obligations to cut production.

5. U.S. exports plummet, with the agricultural sector hit hardest.

6. UK and India finalize free trade agreement.

7. U.S. and Yemen reach an agreement to halt ship attacks.

8. UK and the U.S. near trade deal to cut auto and steel tariffs.

9. Plunging oil prices have prompted Russia to consider tighter budget rules.

[News Details]

China agrees to talk to the U.S., He Lifeng will meet with Bessent

China's Foreign Ministry announced on May 7 that Vice Premier He Lifeng, China's economic dialogue lead, will meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent during his visit to Switzerland (May 9th-12th). The decision follows global expectations, China's interests, and appeals from U.S. industries and consumers.

PBOC cuts reserve ratio and rates

The PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points and policy rates by 10 basis points on May 7, releasing approximately ¥1 trillion in long-term liquidity.

Governor Pan Gongsheng stated at a State Council Information Office press conference that, from a financial market perspective, China's domestic financial markets performed well in the first quarter. Since April, despite facing significant external shocks, the domestic financial system has remained stable, and the financial markets have demonstrated strong resilience. The PBOC will diligently implement the decisions and plans of the Central Committee, promote high-quality economic development, steadfastly advance high-standard opening-up, actively participate in international financial governance and cooperation, and safeguard the rules-based international monetary and financial order. Simultaneously, the PBOC will balance financial opening-up with security, explore ways to enhance the macroprudential and financial stability functions, and resolutely ensure the stable operation of China's financial markets, including the foreign exchange, bond, and stock markets.

U.S. 2-year treasury yield drops as trade deficit renews economic concerns

The yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury note fell, with a record trade deficit and a wave of pessimistic corporate outlooks refocusing markets on potential economic pressures from global trade tensions. The more Fed-sensitive 2-year yield declined nearly 4 basis points. Traders now anticipate three 25-basis-point rate cuts from the central bank this year, with the first reduction expected in September. "Investors fear that even with bad economic news, Trump won’t adjust policies and the Fed won’t ease monetary conditions," said Bob Savage, Head of Macro Strategy at BNY Mellon Markets. "The current positive news isn't enough to offset worries about growth and inflation. Markets remain uncertain, and risk appetite is broadly cooling."

Kazakhstan is considering its options for complying with its OPEC+ obligations to cut production

Kazakhstan is exploring ways to meet its OPEC+ oil production quotas after Saudi Arabia urged compliance. The nation's energy ministry stated it remains “committed to the OPEC+ agreement” and is "evaluating all options.” Oil prices have tumbled since OPEC+'s surprise output hike on May 3, with Goldman Sachs revising down price forecasts. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader, warned at the meeting that the group's overproducing members must take action or face further output hikes.

U.S. exports plummet, with the agricultural sector hit hardest

Latest supply-chain data reveals that the trade slump triggered by Trump-era tariffs has expanded from an initial plunge in import orders to a near-nationwide export collapse, with major agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and beef suffering the most severe blows. According to an analysis by trade-tracking firm Vizion of export container bookings five weeks before and after the U.S. imposed so-called "reciprocal tariffs," the export decline to Asia and globally since January has now spread to the vast majority of U.S. ports. The U.S. agricultural sector continues to sound "crisis" alarms, with port data further confirming a sharp drop in outbound agricultural shipping capacity. Ben Tracy, Vice President of Strategic Business Development at Vizion, stated: "There is no doubt that nearly all of U.S. exports have taken a hit.”

UK and India finalize free trade agreement

India and the United Kingdom have struck a bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) aimed at strengthening economic ties between the world's fifth- and sixth-largest economies. In a statement on Tuesday, the Indian government said: "A balanced, equitable, ambitious and mutually beneficial trade agreement covering trade in goods and services is expected to significantly boost bilateral trade, create new jobs, raise living standards, and enhance the overall well-being of citizens in both countries. It will also unlock new potential for jointly developing products and services tailored to global markets." For UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the agreement is critical as nations worldwide race to insulate themselves from the impact of Trump's tariff wars. For India, the pact elevates its reputation as an emerging investment destination, attracting investors seeking diversification.

The U.S. and Yemen reach an agreement to halt ship attacks

On May 6th, a spokesperson for the Omani Foreign Ministry stated that discussions between the United States, Yemeni authorities, and relevant parties had culminated in an agreement. In the future, neither side will target the other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping.

UK and the U.S. near trade deal to cut auto and steel tariffs

According to the Financial Times, British and U.S. officials have announced that the UK and the United States are close to finalizing a trade agreement that would grant British steel and automotive exports access to lower tariff quotas. The deal, set to be signed this week, would partially shield some UK exports from the full impact of the 25% additional tariffs imposed by former President Trump on steel and auto imports in February and March. A senior British official described the negotiations as "proceeding rapidly" but cautioned that disagreements over pharmaceuticals remain unresolved. The UK's proposal includes concessions to Washington on digital services taxes, reduced tariffs on U.S. auto exports, and lower duties on American agricultural products.

Plunging oil prices have prompted Russia to consider tighter budget rules

Russia is weighing adjustments to its key budgetary mechanism in response to declining oil revenues, signaling that the Kremlin anticipates crude prices will remain low for an extended period even as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to strain state coffers.

According to reliable sources, if oil prices persist at current depressed levels, the Russian government may lower its budget rule threshold—currently set at 60 U.S. dollars per barrel—to around 50 U.S. dollars starting next year. Discussions are in preliminary stages, with officials facing a critical challenge: implementing spending cuts while the war drains fiscal resources.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 17:00 Eurozone March Retail Sales MoM

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Gerik

China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

Early Stage Negotiations Set in Neutral Ground

According to coordinated announcements from the U.S. Treasury Department and the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and USTR Jamieson Greer will represent the U.S. government during two days of negotiations scheduled for May 10 and 11 in Switzerland. The talks will serve as an initial confidence-building measure, rather than a forum for finalizing any substantive deal.

Secretary Bessent made it clear in a televised interview on Fox News that the aim is to “reduce tensions first before any forward movement can be made.” He acknowledged that current conditions do not favor swift outcomes, especially as both countries are still in the early stages of re-engagement following months of tariff escalations.

China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng to Lead Delegation

On the Chinese side, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead the delegation to Switzerland. He Lifeng, who is responsible for managing China’s international economic and trade policy, will meet Secretary Bessent during his official visit to Switzerland from May 9 to 12, following an invitation from the Swiss government. State-run media Xinhua emphasized that the purpose of the meetings is to “restore dialogue” and “stabilize expectations,” rather than immediately settle tariff-related disputes.

The meeting will be the first face-to-face encounter between senior trade officials from both countries since the Trump administration sharply escalated tariffs, including a recent announcement of a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films, with promises of more duties — such as those targeting pharmaceuticals — expected in the coming weeks.

Trade Tensions Cast Shadow Over Global Growth

This latest round of diplomatic engagement occurs amid growing warnings that the intensifying tariff battle between the world’s two largest economies could significantly drag on global economic growth. Financial markets have responded with volatility, and multinational corporations — especially in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods — are bracing for disruption to supply chains and price stability.

Earlier this month, Bessent informed members of Congress that the U.S. is concurrently negotiating with 17 other major trading partners to resolve tariff disputes and may announce new bilateral trade deals as early as this week. China was notably not included in that group, suggesting that the U.S.–China dialogue is still operating in a separate diplomatic track fraught with deeper structural disagreements.

Swiss Setting Symbolizes Diplomatic Reset

The choice of Switzerland — a neutral and stable diplomatic venue — reflects a shared desire to reset communication in a less confrontational environment. While both sides maintain tough public rhetoric, the decision to engage in direct dialogue signals an acknowledgment that prolonged deadlock could be economically and politically costly.

For the U.S., the meetings come at a time when tariff policies are beginning to impact domestic inflation expectations and investor sentiment. For China, the rapid appreciation of the yuan and signs of capital market instability have heightened the urgency for resolving external trade risks.

A Step Forward, With Modest Expectations

The upcoming discussions are unlikely to yield an immediate breakthrough. However, they offer a path forward for the world’s two largest economies to begin resetting the tone of their relationship. In the short term, a successful de-escalation of trade tensions could help calm global markets, while in the long run, the dialogue may evolve into a broader negotiation on trade fairness, technology transfers, and geopolitical influence.

Observers will be closely monitoring not only the outcomes of these talks but also how both sides frame the meeting publicly — as this could determine whether a thaw in relations is truly underway or simply a temporary pause in a broader economic rivalry.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Grace Montgomery

Central Bank

Economic

China reduced its policy rate and lowered the amount of cash lenders must keep in reserve, as Beijing ramps up efforts to help an economy caught in a second trade war with the US.

The People’s Bank of China cut the seven-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.4% from 1.5%, according to governor Pan Gongsheng. The central bank will also trim the reserve requirement ratio by half a percentage point, Pan said at a briefing on Wednesday, without specifying when that would be effective.

The steps aim to guide borrowing costs lower and are among the 10 measures outlined by Pan, which also include rate reductions on a slew of relending tools and loans for policy banks. The RRR cut will release about RMB1 trillion (RM586.94 billion) in long-term liquidity, Pan said.

The offshore yuan trimmed its advance to trade little changed at 7.2 per dollar, while the 10-year government bond yield edged lower.

The central bank last reduced its policy rate and the reserve requirement ratio in September after Pan unveiled an array of aggressive measures to put a floor under China’s growth slowdown.

Pan also announced:

- The central bank will set up a RMB500 billion relending tool for consumption and elderly care.

- It will also increase its technology relending fund by RMB300 billion.

- Plans to increase its agriculture, small and medium enterprises relending fund

The decisions demonstrate officials are acting with urgency to support the world’s second-largest economy in the face of the US-China trade war. Expectations that Beijing would unleash more stimulus have risen after US President Donald Trump imposed up to 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, a level economists say would decimate bilateral trade.

“Today’s announcement reflects an orchestrated effort to not only support liquidity but to stimulate the broader market and economy,” said Frances Cheung, managing director and rates strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd. “Having a more resilient economy would also be a card to play in the face of tariffs.”