Canadian dollar eyes retail sales report, markets await Powell speech

Forex

Summary:

The Canadian dollar held near 1.3912 as markets awaited Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Traders eye June retail sales rebound, while U.S.-Canada trade tensions persist. USD/CAD tests key resistance at 1.3926.

The Canadian dollar is unchanged on Friday, trading at 1.3912. Earlier, USD/CAD hit 1.3917, its highest level since May.

Canada's retail sales expected to rebound

Canada wraps up the week with the June retail sales report, which is expected to rebound with a gain of 1.5% y/y. This follows a 1.1% decline in May, as consumers cut back on spending when US tariffs took effect in April.

The trade war between Canada and the US continues but consumers have had time to adjust to the new reality of tariffs and the markets expect a strong rebound in consumer spending.

It is somewhat surprising that the US has concluded trade agreements with the EU and Japan but not Canada, which is one of the largest trading partners of the US. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to its southern neighbor, so it cannot afford a prolonged trade war with the US. President Trump's sharp rhetoric about annexing Canada and turning it into the 51st state has touched a raw nerve with Canadians and had a major impact on the recent Canadian election.

All eyes on Jackson Hole

The heads of the major central banks have converged for a meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The star of the show will be Federal Reserve Chair Powell, who will deliver a speech later today. The markets have priced in a rate cut at next month's Fed meeting and are hoping for some confirmation from Powell.

The Fed must chart a rate path in challenging economic conditions. Inflation is still high, which would support maintaining rates, but the labor market is deteriorating, which supports the case to lower rates and boost economic activity.

What should be the Fed's priority? There is a split among members, as reflected in the rare split vote at the July meeting. The majority of the FOMC members, which voted to hold rates, judges the upside risk of inflation to be the primary concern, while the two members who voted to lower rates are most concerned by softening employment. The Fed meets next month and is widely expected to deliver its first rate cut since December 2024.

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.3926, which has held since May. Above, there is resistance at 1.3941

There is support at 1.3897 and 1.3882

Canadian dollar eyes retail sales report, markets await Powell speech_1

USD/CAD 1-Day Chart, Aug. 25, 2025

Source: marketpulse

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Adam

Stocks

U.S. stock index futures edged higher Friday, with investors wary in anticipation of more economic cues from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

At 05:20 ET (09:20 GMT), Dow Jones Futures rose 125 points or 0.3%, S&P 500 Futures gained 15 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures climbed 30 points, or 0.1%.

The major indices closed lower Thursday, with the broad-based S&P 500 posting a fifth straight day of declines.

As of Thursday’s close, all three major averages were headed for a losing week. The S&P 500 is off 1.2% week to date, the NASDAQ Composite is down 2.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is on pace for a 0.4% slide.

Powell speech at Jackson Hole in focus

Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium later in the session, potentially offering up more cues on the economy and the Fed’s plans for interest rates.

His address comes amid increasing doubts over whether the Fed has enough impetus to cut rates in September.

The minutes of the Fed’s late-July meeting showed policymakers still remained cautious over cutting interest rates in the near-term, especially amid uncertainty over the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.

Policymakers were also seen focusing more on managing inflation than stemming more labor market weakness.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, a voting member, said the central bank isn’t rushing to cut interest rates, pointing to inflation still running above its 2% target and a resilient labor market.

Separately, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, a non-voting member, voiced concern Thursday that stubborn inflation may rule out an interest-rate cut in September.

Fed fund futures are pricing in a 73.1% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, down sharply from the 90.2% chance seen a week ago, CME Fedwatch showed.

UBS lifts S&P 500 targets

The second-quarter earnings season is now largely finished, and UBS has lifted its price targets for the S&P 500, citing strong second-quarter earnings and improved economic conditions.

The investment bank increased its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,600 and its June 2026 target to 6,800, with the index having closed Thursday at 6,370.17.

Second-quarter earnings season proved particularly strong, with S&P 500 earnings growing at 8%, exceeding UBS’s initial 5% expectation. The "Magnificent 7" tech stocks delivered 30% growth, surpassing the bank’s 20% forecast. The median company beat estimates by 4.5 percentage points, higher than the typical 3.5 percentage point beat.

UBS noted that third-quarter guidance was also positive, suggesting no slowdown in profit growth despite tariffed goods now reaching store shelves.

On an individual corporate level, both Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU) and Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM) will be in the spotlight after the companies posted results after the close Thursday.

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) signed a $10 billion deal with Alphabet’s Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL), the Information reported, which will see the Facebook owner use Google Cloud’s servers, storage, and other services over the next six years.

Meta, along with Wall Street’s so-called AI Hyperscalers, is racing to build superintelligent AI amid growing calls from investors for returns on the hundreds of billions of dollars poured into AI development.

Crude set for winning week

Oil prices edged higher Friday, on track to snap a two-week losing streak, amid increasing signs that peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were stalling.

At 05:20 ET, Brent futures gained 0.1% to $67.68 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.1% to $63.54 a barrel.

Both contracts climbed more than 1% in the prior session. Brent has risen 3% this week, while the WTI has gained around 1.4%.

The three-and-a-half-year war in Ukraine continued unabated on Thursday, and traders are pricing in more risk that the supply of Russian crude to the global market remains disrupted.

Oil prices were also supported by a larger-than-expected drawdown from U.S. crude stockpiles in the last week, indicating strong demand.

Source: Investing

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

London stocks had pared losses to trade flat by midday on Friday after closing at a fresh record a day earlier for the third session in a row, as investors eyed a speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole.

The FTSE 100 was steady at 9,311.94.

Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell, said: "The FTSE 100 saw a subdued start on Friday after achieving a record close above 9,300 yesterday.

"This followed more selling on Wall Street overnight, albeit of moderate persuasion, as investors fret about the message Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell might deliver at the Jackson Hole summit.

"Investors had been expecting a rate cut from the Fed next month so if Powell were to say anything suggesting rates might be kept on hold, it could see stocks come under greater pressure."

On home shores, a survey out earlier showed that improved confidence about personal finances pushed consumer sentiment higher in August, though concerns about rising inflation and unemployment continued to dampen the overall mood.

The GfK consumer confidence index rose by two points to -17 this month, its highest level this year, with four of the five components of the gauge improving from July.

Notably, sentiment gauges around consumers' personal financial situation over the past 12 months and expectations for the coming year both rose by three points to -4 and +5, respectively.

GfK said the brighter outlook was most likely due to the Bank of England cutting interest rates to a two-year low earlier this month.

However, Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said there were still "many clouds on the horizon in the form of inflation - the highest since January 2024 - and rising unemployment. There’s no shortage of speculation, too, about what the autumn Budget will bring in terms of tax rises."

Bellamy added: "While August’s Overall Index Score of -17 is the best this year, consumer confidence continues to move in a very narrow band, and there’s no sense that it is about to break out into fresher, more optimistic territory. The UK’s consumers are still in wait-and-see mode, and any surprises could result in sudden and sharp changes in sentiment."

On the corporate front, Standard Chartered jumped to the top of the FTSE 100 after the bank welcomed what it described as a favourable filing from the US Department of Justice in a long-running civil case involving allegations of sanctions breaches.

The bank said the DoJ’s latest position in the so-called ‘Brutus’ case confirmed that the claims, first brought by a former employee and his associates more than a decade ago, were "false" and repeatedly dismissed by US courts.

Morgan Advanced Materials gained after agreeing to sell its Molten Metal Systems business to Vesuvius for £92.7m.

Elsewhere, Blackstone emerged as the winner in the race to buy Warehouse Reit, after rival bidder Tritax Big Box Reit said it would not increase its offer for the commercial landlord.

Warehouse last month changed its endorsement after Blackstone confirmed it would allow shareholders to receive a dividend from Warehouse as part of its £489m bid.

Tritax had offered a cash and stock deal worth around £485.2m, but on Friday said it did not believe that increasing the financial terms would be in the interests of its shareholders.

Source: Sharecast

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Cryptocurrency

The asset is currently consolidating just below critical resistance levels, leaving traders divided between expectations of a bullish breakout and concerns that further retracement could follow.

Bull Flag Signals Possible Upside

Market analysts point to Ethereum’s daily chart, where price action has carved out a classic bull flag formation. This pattern typically signals continuation after a pause, suggesting that consolidation may soon give way to fresh momentum.

The recent pullback has been relatively orderly, with ETH maintaining higher lows even as selling persists. If Ethereum can break above resistance, analysts believe the move could carry prices toward $4,800 in the short term, and potentially as high as $5,500 if momentum builds. Failing to hold $4,200, however, may tilt sentiment toward deeper retracement.

Institutional Selling Raises Questions

Adding fuel to the debate, BlackRock recently reduced its exposure to Ethereum by unloading more than $254 million worth of the asset. The sale rattled markets, with some viewing it as simple profit-taking after ETH’s rally, while others fear it signals weakening institutional demand.

Uniswap Whales Are Dumping – Can UNI Survive the Next Correction?

Despite the headline-grabbing exit, technical indicators remain supportive. Chart structures still lean bullish, and analysts argue that Ethereum’s long-term trajectory is unlikely to be dictated by a single institutional move.

2025 Outlook: Bulls Eye $5,500 and Beyond

The balance between short-term caution and long-term optimism is defining Ethereum’s market narrative. If the bull flag confirms with a decisive breakout, Ethereum could not only challenge $5,500 but also position itself closer to retesting all-time highs.

While institutional flows may spark volatility, Ethereum’s price path remains heavily dependent on technical performance and retail conviction. For now, the asset sits at a pivotal level where the next breakout or breakdown will likely dictate momentum heading into the final months of the year.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Winkelmann

Forex

Political

Economic

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) doesn’t need to be too stimulatory with policy because it views the recent lull in economic activity as temporary, according to chief economist Paul Conway.“We are seeing the weakness in the second quarter as a short-run phenomena driven by policy uncertainty that held back investment and created a bit of uncertainty for households,” he said in an interview on Friday in Wellington. “We do think that’s going to dissipate. I don’t think we need to be overtly stimulatory.”

The central bank lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3% this week and surprised markets by signalling two further cuts to 2.5% by year-end. Having brought the OCR down from 5.5% in this easing cycle, policy settings are now seen as neutral rather than restrictive, and the RBNZ expects the economy to pick up in response.“That is going to encourage economic growth, like taking your foot off the brake is going to make the car go faster,” Conway said.

The RBNZ projects the OCR will average 2.6% in the year through March 2027, according to its monetary policy statement released on Wednesday. Conway said the level remains a neutral setting — one which neither curbs nor stimulate demand. He also noted that neutral is a range between 2.5% and 3.5%, but shouldn’t be viewed mechanistically.

“It’s not like there’s a magical number of the OCR beneath which the economy starts to recover,” he said.

New Zealand will likely post nil growth in the six months through September, the RBNZ said this week. Uncertainty over the impact of US tariff policies on global activity has had an out-sized impact on businesses, leading to less investment and hiring, while consumers curbed discretionary spending and stopped buying houses, it said.“The uncertainty has cleared a bit,” said Conway, adding that he expects the nation will bounce out of this “economic funk” by the end of the year.

“The concern around growth is that New Zealanders, we sort of talk ourselves into a deeper funk that persists into next year,” he said. “That’s the main growth risk and we’re at a turning point clearly.”

Exports, housing

While a strong export performance is supporting growth, the revival of the housing market and its impact on residential construction will be fundamental to the economic recovery, Conway said. The RBNZ forecasts house prices will fall marginally this year after previously seeing a 3.5% gain in its May projections, but sees a lift in values in 2026.

Conway said New Zealand’s efforts to correct a supply imbalance by building more houses has been a factor in capping prices, though it’s too early to call a structural change.A better balanced market is “wonderful but it does have implications for the broader economy,” he said. “How can we grow this economy without that wealth effect coming through the housing market?”Alongside housing, the other key driver of the economy has been strong population growth via migration. Both of those channels appear to have changed recently, Conway said. Data this week showed people are leaving the nation at the highest rate in 13 years.

“It gets back to that question of where will growth come from,” he said. “If the housing market is working properly and there’s increased demand for houses, you get increased residential investment. So that’s economic activity. With migration, we’re forecasting it to turn around but that is shrouded in uncertainty.”

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

MARKET WRAPS

Stocks:

European shares were rising Friday with attention squarely focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's annual address to the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Deutsche Bank said investors were in a "jittery mood" ahead of the 1600 CET speech after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data prompted a dial back in rate-cut expectations.

In Europe, German GDP figures showed that industry fared worse than expected in the second quarter as U.S. tariffs hit exports.

Consumer confidence in the U.K. rose but remained firmly in negative territory.

Investors are also digesting the detail of the joint EU-U.S. statement on tariffs .

Stocks to Watch

Deutsche Bank Research raised its recommendation for the European pharmaceutical sector to overweight from underweight on reduced uncertainty following the EU-U.S. statement on tariffs.

Economic Insight

Germany's economic recovery continued to recede into the distance, ING said after the GDP release.

"It could take until next year before a more substantial recovery starts to unfold."

Sentiment among British households will be strained by rising inflation , Pantheon Macroeconomics said.

Money markets are potentially too optimistic about Fed rate cuts, according to Societe Generale.

"We believe the market has overreacted to the July nonfarm payroll print, and the slowdown in job growth may be consistent with stable unemployment."

Fed chairs have previously used the Jackson Hole Symposium to communicate important shifts in guidance , but that is unlikely this year, according to Commerzbank Research.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures were moving higher again following the pullback in tech stocks and ahead of Powell's speech.

The S&P 500 has posted five straight days of losses this week, albeit shedding only 1.5% over that period.

Forex:

The dollar rose as investors weighed the better-than-expected U.S. data ahead of Powell's eagerly awaited speech.

Bonds:

The 10-year Bund yield was steady. Commerzbank said the benchmark Bund could be a good buy at current yield levels.

"We suggest tactical Bund longs at 10-year yields near 2.8%."

Eurozone bond yields have been rising in August and Societe Generale anticipates demand to return soon at current yield levels.

The 10-year Treasury yield edged marginally higher.

Schroders said concerns over U.S. fiscal dynamics, alongside threats to the Fed's independence, posed a risk to long-dated Treasurys.

Energy:

Oil prices rose early Friday on fading optimism for a near-term cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine.

ING said a summit between Putin and Zelensky was proving difficult to set up, while discussions around potential security guarantees were facing obstacles.

Metals:

Gold futures fell, though they remained broadly rangebound as traders eased back expectations for imminent U.S. rate cuts.

Strong U.S. manufacturing data showed factories expanding at the fastest pace in more than three years, reinforcing concerns that inflation pressures remained elevated, MUFG said.

EMEA HEADLINES

Air Liquide to Buy South Korea's DIG Airgas for $3 Billion

Air Liquide agreed to buy South Korea's DIG Airgas for 2.85 billion euros ($3.31 billion), including debt and cash, in a move to strengthen its market position in the country.

The French industrial-gases company said Friday that it signed a binding agreement with Macquarie Asia-Pacific Infrastructure Fund 2 to buy DIG, a transaction expected to close in the first half of 2026.

Gold Fields Earnings Boosted by Higher Gold Price

Gold Fields reported higher earnings for the first half year, in line with its forecasts, as it benefited from rising gold prices offset by increased costs.

The South African gold miner said Friday that net profit was $1.02 billion for the half year ended June 30 compared with $389 million for the comparable period a year earlier.

How Trump's Ukraine Peace Push Stalled Out in Four Days

WASHINGTON-On Monday, President Trump boasted about quickly brokering peace to end the bloody Ukraine conflict. By Thursday, he was saying that Kyiv had no chance of winning the war without new attacks on Russia.

"It's like a great team in sports that has a fantastic defense, but is not allowed to play offense," Trump posted on social media. "Interesting times ahead!!!"

Ukrainian Suspected of Leading Nord Stream Sabotage Arrested in Italy

A former Ukrainian military officer suspected of leading a team that sabotaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines in 2022 was detained in Italy on Wednesday under an international arrest warrant issued by German prosecutors, according to investigators and people familiar with the case.

The officer, identified by German police as Serhii K., allegedly headed a team of two soldiers and four civilian divers covertly recruited by a special Ukrainian military unit to lay explosives that damaged the undersea pipelines, investigators said.

GLOBAL NEWS

Global Markets Largely Flat Ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole Speech

Largely rangebound trading across stock markets continued early Friday, with investors jittery ahead of Federal Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech at 10:00 ET.

With a month still to run until the September Fed rate decision, August jobs, CPI and PPI reports are due in the interim period, underscoring the uncertainty around monetary policy, Pepperstone's senior rates strategist Michael Brown said in a note. "There is little to no benefit in Powell pre-committing to any action later on today."

Powell Plans U-Turn on an Economic Strategy That Soured

Federal Reserve officials are preparing to quietly retreat from a signature policy innovation unveiled five years ago.

In 2020, officials revamped their approach to setting rates, focusing on the risks brought on by near-zero interest rates and low prices. Today, officials are preparing to scrap that approach, now viewed as no longer relevant when facing the opposite problem of high and more volatile inflation.

How Trump Will Decide Which Chips Act Companies Must Give Up Equity

The Trump administration is considering taking equity stakes in companies receiving funds from the 2022 Chips Act but has no plans to seek shares in bigger semiconductor firms that are increasing their U.S. investments, according to a government official.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed in a Tuesday interview with CNBC that the government is in talks to take a 10% equity stake in the troubled semiconductor company Intel and said the administration may consider equity stakes in other firms as well.

Copper Is Struggling. European Defense Spending Could Help.

Demand for copper has been soft, but European military spending could provide a boost.

Copper prices have been on a roller coaster this year, thanks in large part to uncertainty around the Trump administration's trade policies. Prices for U.S.-based Comex copper surged more than 25% in the first half of the year, as President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs prompted traders to stockpile the metal in the U.S.

Trump Visits Federal Agents in D.C., Says Crackdown Is Working

WASHINGTON-President Trump said his takeover of law enforcement in Washington, D.C., had made the city safe in a matter of days, as he visited a U.S. Park Police facility in the city's Anacostia neighborhood Thursday.

The president spoke briefly to about 300 law-enforcement officials from various agencies and made bold promises about his plans for the nation's capital. In addition to reducing crime, he said he would go to Congress for funding to restore medians, clean graffiti from walls, fix asphalt and improve the grass in parks, an area in which he said he has expertise because of his ownership of several golf courses.

Trump Says Ukraine Has No Chance of Winning War Without Striking Russia

President Trump said Thursday that Ukraine would have to continue attacks on Russia to have any hope of winning the war, days after hosting two summits designed to end the conflict.

"It is very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invaders country," he wrote. "It's like a great team in sports that has a fantastic defense, but is not allowed to play offense. There is no chance of winning! It is like that with Ukraine and Russia."

Source: morningstar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Michelle

Economic

Stocks

As investors wait anxiously for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium today, the rates market is responding to a mix of robust economic and price signals and hawkish statements from Powell's colleagues.

The Fed futures market has reduced the chances of a rate cut next month to just 70% from almost a sure thing not that long ago. Two-year Treasury yields have also matched their highest level since August 1 as some Fed officials - including Cleveland Fed boss Beth Hammack, Atlanta's Raphael Bostic and Kansas City's Jeffrey Schmid – expressed doubts about the wisdom of a September cut, with inflation still well above target and business surveys showing renewed vigour in the U.S economy.

U.S. stock futures steadied early Friday but only after this week’s tech stock wobble resulted in five straight daily loss in the S&P 500. The dollar notched its best level in about 10 days, with the yen at its weakest since August 1 on softer Japanese inflation data.

* Powell's Jackson Hole speech is typically a scene-setter for Fed policy over the year ahead and is expected to touch on changes to the average inflation targeting strategy as well as defending Fed independence - something in the spotlight again this week after administration demands for board member Lisa Cook to resign over alleged mortgage fraud. With minutes from the latest meeting and the latest Fed speeches showing no consensus on an urgent shift of stance, Powell is unlikely to signal a resumption of easing just yet - with no cast-iron case emerging from the latest sweep of economic data.

* Chinese stocks appear to be on a roll, with the Shanghai benchmark reclaiming 3,800 for the first time in a decade on domestic tech excitement. Tokyo's Nikkei was flat and the yen weaker on the inflation update there, but political paralysis in Japan is putting pressure on the bond market, with 10-year bond yields hitting the highest since 2008 and 30-year yields rising further to all-time peaks. With persistent calls for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to step down after recent elections, things could come to a head next week when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party releases a report on reasons for the poor poll.

* Even as last weekend's excitement about a Ukraine peace deal has gone cold and Germany's second-quarter GDP was revised lower, European stocks were firmer on Friday - with some optimism about details of the U.S.-EU framework trade agreement released on Thursday and what it means for auto and pharma stocks. But Poland's WIG index posted its biggest decline in more than four months, falling 2.9% after the government proposed a hike to corporate income tax.

Today's Market Minute

* Investors are bracing for volatility as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell walks a fine line between curbing inflation and supporting the labor market, with thin August trading poised to magnify any market moves from his Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

* Vladimir Putin is demanding that Ukraine give up all of the eastern Donbas region, renounce ambitions to join NATO, remain neutral and keep Western troops out of the country, three sources familiar with top-level Kremlin thinking told Reuters.

* The Trump administration is considering a plan to reallocate at least $2 billion from the CHIPS Act to fund critical minerals projects and boost Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's influence over the strategic sector, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

* Is the U.S. economic outlook so weak that it warrants multiple interest rate cuts? Or are U.S. markets pulling in huge inflows from abroad because the country's outlook is so attractive? ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever explores this conundrum in his latest piece.

* Lambasting credit rating agencies is a favorite pastime of many debt market participants. However, writes Income Securities Advisor publisher Marty Fridson, self-interest appears to drive many of the most common criticisms, and history suggests these much-maligned appraisers actually do a pretty good job.

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