Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin sentiment is taking a serious beating after BTC price weakness sees six-week lows return.

Bitcoin kicks off the last week of June, heading for a range-low retest as BTC price action nears $60,000.

Dropping another 1.25% since the June 24 daily close, Bitcoin continues to test bulls’ nerve with a trip ever deeper into core resistance.

Whether this holds or not is now the key question for the coming days, with the monthly close looming.

To get this far, Bitcoin has already given up multiple moving averages and plunged short-term holders into the red by moving below their aggregate cost basis.

Demand is thus seeing something of a temporary setback, and the focus is on whales in particular amid the lowest prices in over a month.

Factors adding fuel to the volatility mix this week include the classic United States unemployment data release on June 28, along with revised second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures, followed a day later by the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge.

Bitcoin thus has its work cut out if a rebound is to set in before the monthly and quarterly close, with BTC/USD now down 7% in June so far.

Cointelegraph takes a look at the current BTC price landscape and investigates the main issues among traders in what is already shaping up to be a significant week for the market.

BTC price hits new six-week lows

Bitcoin disappointed after its latest weekly close, dropping steadily to hit $62,128 on Bitstamp, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms. Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_1

Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_1

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

This represents its lowest levels since May 15, and with the weekly and quarterly close due in the coming days, bulls now contend with 7% month-to-date losses.

“BTC looks weaker than I expected and should see some more downside,” popular trader Crypto Ed wrote in part of his latest post on X, capturing the mood.

Crypto Ed added that altcoins, already suffering at the hands of the BTC price rout, could see another 20% dive. Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_2

Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_2

Total altcoin market cap 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile set out the key levels within Bitcoin’s multimonth trading range.

“Arrived at the golden pocket Fibonacci retracement level. If there’s bulls left that want to make this into a higher low then this is the spot,” he cautioned on the day.

“A bounce should lead to a mid range retest, where failing to do so likely results in a range low retest.”

BTC/USDT perp chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed BTC/USD cutting through bid support above $62,000. The past 24 hours liquidated around $48 million of BTC longs, it confirmed. Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_4

Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_4

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

PCE week comes as traders focus on Fed liquidity

The macroeconomic data whirlwind is set to make a return in the latter half of the week as U.S. jobless claims, revised Q2 GDP and the May print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index are all released.

Crypto markets have shown themselves to be sensitive to unemployment data, particularly in 2024, while PCE is known to be the Fed’s “preferred” gauge for charting progress on inflation.

This, in turn, could have a significant impact on policy should it significantly miss forecasts in either direction.

“Tons of important data to wrap up Q2 2024 this week,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized on X.

Kobeissi added that PCE would be responsible for leading the market away from fears of “stagflation” setting in.

Matthew Dixon, founder and CEO of the crypto rating platform Evai, was among the crypto market observers who predicted that the Index would put the cat among the pigeons with a curveball reading.

“Market is waiting for #PCE this Friday 28th. The #FEDs preferred measure of inflation,” he told X subscribers on June 24.

“I expect a lower than expected read which should turn #BTC #Crypto #Altcoins and other risk assets higher imo.”

Fed target rate probabilities for September meeting. Source: CME Group

The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool show that markets continue to see the Fed beginning interest rate cuts — a key moment for crypto and risk assets — in September, and not earlier.

Stocks leave crypto in the dust

In a curious contrast, Bitcoin and crypto weakness come at a time when U.S. stocks are outperforming.

The S&P 500 made new all-time highs last week, underscoring an inverse correlation with Bitcoin that has caught many off-guard.

“Short interest on the S&P 500, $SPY, and Nasdaq 100, $QQQ, ETFs is now at a 6 year low,” Kobeissi noted.

“Since 2023, short interest as a % of shares outstanding has fallen by over 50%. Meanwhile, the volatility index, $VIX, is down 40% since January 2023. Even during the fastest interest rate hike cycle of all time, volatility trades near record lows.”

Kobeissi thus concluded that “market risk appetite has never been stronger,” making crypto’s weak performance all the more striking. Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_6

Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_6

S&P 500 vs. total crypto market cap chart. Source: TradingView

Offering an explanation, market commentator Tomas suggested that Bitcoin continues to be highly sensitive to Fed liquidity levels, these dropping by $140 billion last week.

“Net Fed Liquidity has dropped 2.21% this week, with bitcoin down 4.77%. Stocks have also now dropped slightly, with S&P and Nasdaq down roughly 1% in 24 hours,” he wrote in an X post on June 21.

Tomas suggested that, while not certain, liquidity levels were at or near local lows, implying that a rebound should lift crypto performance across the board.

“These things are always difficult to predict, but if I had to estimate the rough direction of Net Fed Liquidity in the coming weeks/months - I would say where it is now is likely to be the low point or near to the low point, with Net Fed Liquidity grinding upwards,” he forecast.

Earlier, further analysis of Bitcoin’s Fed liquidity correlation concluded that upside may return with the monthly close.

Bitcoin whales under the microscope

As Bitcoin heads toward $60,000, some are asking whether current levels represent an attractive trade to the whale population.

Recent weeks have seen order book “spoofing” driving prices toward liquidity on multiple occasions, producing artificial volatility.

While data shows some classes of whale increasing BTC exposure this quarter, the picture is not a uniform one, Cointelegraph reported.

As noted by popular social media commentator Bitcoin Munger last week, the largest class of whale contrasts with the rest in its accumulation trend. Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_7

Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_7

Bitcoin whale accumulation trend data. Source: Bitcoin Munger

Fast forward to this week, however, and confidence in broad whale accumulation is growing at $62,000.

“Clear that whales have been buying this dip in record numbers - but the selling volume does not justify the price drops which are manipulated by the market makers, who work for the whales,” fellow commentator MartyParty argued. Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_8

Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_8

Bitcoin whale orders data. Source: MartyParty

An accompanying chart from CoinGlass showed recent whale orders on the Binance BTC/USDT perpetual swaps pair.

Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant meanwhile shows an uptick in inflows to accumulation addresses beginning on June 20. Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_9

Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_9

BTC inflows to accumulation addresses. Source: CryptoQuant

Crypto sentiment closes in on 2024 lows

At 51/100 as of June 24, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is nearing its lowest levels of 2024.

A comparatively small market cap decrease in percentage terms speaks volumes when viewed from a sentiment perspective.

Here, the Index, which just a week ago was nearing “extreme greed,” is now flirting with “fear” territory. Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_10

Can $60K BTC Price Support Hold? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_10

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Even when still around $65,000, research firm Santiment noted what it called “rare” fearmongering setting in among Bitcoin market participants.

“The crowd is mainly fearful or disinterested toward Bitcoin as prices range between $65K to $66K. This extended level of FUD is rare, as traders continue to capitulate,” it commented on X on June 20.

“BTC trader fatigue, combined with whale accumulation, generally leads to bounces that reward the patient.”

Bitcoin sentiment data. Source: Santiment

The overly sour mood was not lost on longtime traders, with Jelle describing it as “worsening by the day.”

“Looks like the chop is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do: shake as many people out as possible, before the ATH run. We saw the same in previous cycles. This time ain’t different,” part of an X post read.

Fellow trading account IncomeSharks argued that the poor climate was the result of trading on emotion.

“Sentiment is so low because people have been overtrading in tough conditions losing money,” it concluded.

Source: Cointelegraph

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Negative surprise in IFO Business Climate Index results

The economic climate in Germany is grim and growth is minimal at best. The IFO business sentiment index shows no signs of substantial improvement, with many businesses becoming increasingly pessimistic.

June saw a surprising worsening of the economic mood in Germany. The IFO business climate index dropped to 88.6 points from 89.3 points in the previous month, marking two straight declines. Economists surveyed by Reuters had anticipated an increase to 89.7 points. Businesses remained skeptical about their current situation and grew even more skeptical about the future.

IFO President Clemens Fuest stated, "The German economy is struggling to break free from stagnation." Munich researchers also shared a disappointing conclusion: "The German economy is still waiting for its summer miracle." In several sectors, orders were scarce, and demand remained weak. Private consumption, however, was hoped to be the engine for a strengthening economy in the second half of the year.

Jens-Oliver Niklasch, an analyst from LBBW, commented on the IFO Index, "This number is as grim as it appears. There's no sign of recovery in Germany." The outlook and expectations grew darker yet, remaining at a low level. "It's unclear where the growth catalyst for 2025 will come from," said Niklasch. It's likely that economic output in the current second quarter is on the brink of stagnation, and there's little hope for better figures in the third quarter. "We're just learning to accept this prolonged stagnation," said Niklasch.

Trade Decline

IFO Chief Fuest noted, "The business climate in manufacturing has taken a hit after three consecutive rises." Businesses are again more pessimistic about the future. "The declining order backlog is causing concern for companies." The service sector mood is improving, while the business climate in trade has significantly worsened. In construction, the index fell slightly, due to less pessimistic expectations. However, businesses assessed the situation more negatively due to a lack of orders.

The economy avoided a recession at the beginning of the year due to increased exports and construction spending. Between January and March, it grew by 0.2 percent, the strongest growth in a year. The Bundesbank and other experts had predicted that the recovery would continue in the current second quarter. For momentum, private consumption was expected, particularly due to easing inflation.

Overall, the gross domestic product, or the sum of all produced goods and services, was forecasted to grow by 0.3 percent. The German Industry and Trade Chamber (DIHK), based on a survey of more than 24,000 companies from all industries and regions, however, anticipates stagnation.

Source:ASB Zeltung

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Samantha Luan

Economic

According to the General Authority for Statistics, the Kingdom’s non-oil shipments rose by 12.4 percent in April compared to the same month last year.

This comes as the Kingdom intensifies its efforts to boost non-oil exports to reduce its reliance on the energy sector and diversify its economy. The significant growth underscores Saudi Arabia’s commitment to strengthening other sectors and achieving a more balanced economic structure.

National non-oil exports, excluding re-exports, saw a modest rise of 1.6 percent in April this year compared to April 2023, while re-exported goods experienced a substantial increase of 56.4 percent over the same period.

In contrast, overall outbound merchandise supply fell by 1.0 percent, primarily due to a 4.2 percent decline in oil exports. As a result, the proportion of oil in total outbound supply decreased from 80.6 percent in April 2023 to 78.0 percent in April this year.

Imports also saw a slight decline of 1.3 percent, and the merchandise trade balance surplus dropped by 0.5 percent compared to the previous year.

Month-over-month comparisons show a decrease in the value of merchandise exports by 1.7 percent, non-oil exports by 6.3 percent, and imports by 17.4 percent. However, the Kingdom’s trade balance still saw a substantial increase.

The ratio of non-oil merchandise exports to imports improved significantly, rising to 37.1 percent in April from 32.6 percent in April 2023. This improvement is attributed to the increase in non-oil exports and the decrease in imports.

Plastics, rubber, and their products were among the top non-oil exports, making up 26.2 percent of the total and growing by 20.5 percent compared to April 2023.

Chemical products also constituted a significant portion, accounting for 25.7 percent of non-oil exports, although they saw a 13.8 percent decrease from the previous year.

On the import side, machinery, electrical equipment, and parts were the leading category, representing 26.6 percent of total imports and increasing by 32.4 percent compared to April 2023.

Transportation equipment and parts followed, making up 11.7 percent of imports but decreasing by 24.5 percent from the previous year.

China remained Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner, receiving 16.6 percent of total exports in April 2024. Japan and India followed with 9.2 percent and 8.1 percent of total exports, respectively.

These top three countries, along with South Korea, the UAE, and the US, alongside Poland, Bahrain, Malaysia, and Singapore, collectively accounted for 65.6 percent of the Kingdom’s total exports.

China also led in imports to Saudi Arabia, constituting 22.4 percent of total imports. The US and India followed, with 8.3 percent and 6.6 percent of total imports, respectively.

Imports from the top ten countries made up 62.2 percent of the total.

The main entry points for imports into the Kingdom included King Abdulaziz Sea Port in Dammam with 29.7 percent, Jeddah Islamic Sea Port with 18.4 percent, and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh with 14.3 percent.

Other ports included King Abdulaziz International Airport with 7.6 percent and King Fahad International Airport in Dammam with 5.9 percent.

Together, these five ports handled 76.0 percent of Saudi Arabia’s total merchandise imports.

These statistics are based on administrative records from the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority and the Ministry of Energy, with classifications according to the Harmonized System maintained by the World Customs Organization.

Source:Arab News

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Stocks

Asia shares slipped on Monday in a countdown for U.S. price data that investors are banking on to show a renewed moderation in inflation, while markets were on alert for Japanese intervention as the dollar tested the 160 yen barrier.

Geopolitics also loomed large, with the first U.S. presidential debate on Thursday and the first round of voting in the French election at the weekend.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.8%, after touching a two-year top last week. South Korean stocks also fell 0.8%.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both dithering either side of flat. Shares in Boeing could face pressure after Reuters reported U.S. prosecutors are recommending criminal charges be brought against the aircraft maker.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures eased 0.1%, while FTSE futures lost 0.3%.

Japan's Nikkei inched up 0.7%, with the continued decline in the yen putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten policy despite patchy domestic data.

Minutes of the central bank's last policy meeting out on Monday showed there was much discussion about tapering its bond buying and raising rates.

Japan's top currency official was out early to voice disapproval with the yen's latest drop which saw the dollar reach as high as 159.94 .

The dollar was trading just a shade softer at 159.74, eyeing the 160.245 peak from late April where Japan is thought to have started spending around $60 billion buying the yen.

Demand for carry trades, borrowing yen at low rates to buy higher yielding currencies, has also seen both the Australian and New Zealand dollars reach 17-year peaks on the yen.

PARSING THE PCE

Even the euro was testing recent highs at 170.87 yen , despite being saddled with a round of soft manufacturing surveys (PMI) which left it stuck at $1.0692 .

"The decline in the Euro area flash June PMI raises some concern that the nascent rebound is being cut short," wrote analysts at JPMorgan in a note.

"The abruptness of the drop is notable against the backdrop of the French election, which was mentioned explicitly by firms as a reason for the drag."

France's far right National Rally (RN) party and its allies were leading the first round of the country's elections with 35.5% of the vote, according to a poll published on Sunday.

Manufacturing surveys from the United States, in contrast, showed activity at a 26-month high in June, though price pressures subsided considerably.

The latter shift whetted appetites for the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index due on Friday. Annual growth in the Federal Reserve's favoured core index is expected to slow to 2.6% in May, the lowest in more than three years.

"Note that low PCE deflator outcomes are needed to keep the y/y rate from rising through the course of this year given the string of low prints in the second half of 2023," cautioned analysts at NAB.

"The Fed is well aware of this as the median dot for end 2024 was 2.8% for PCE, unchanged from its current level and implying average monthly outcomes of 0.18%."

A low result would likely reinforce market bets on a Fed rate cut as early as September, which futures currently price as a 65% prospect.

There are at least five Fed speakers on the docket this week, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman.

In commodity markets, gold has felt the burden of a firm dollar at $2,324 an ounce .

Oil prices also eased a touch after rising around 3% last week.

Brent slipped 7 cents to $85.17 a barrel, while U.S. crude also lost 7 cents to $80.66 per barrel.

Source: Reuters

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Warren Takunda

Economic

London stocks were set to fall at the open on Monday following a selloff in Nvidia shares in the US on Friday.

The FTSE 100 was called to open around 10 points lower.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said: "The week kicks off on a weak note following a moody trading session across Europe and the US on Friday. One of the most significant moves of last two trading days of the US was a 10% selloff in Nvidia sales for … no reason other than the fact that it was the end of the month, the end of the quarter and the end of H1, and investors preferred taking profits while they repositioned for the new half than buying more Nvidia shares at peak levels, and at a very high valuation with little certainty regarding how to value a stock that’s price-to-projected sales hit the highest of the S&P 500.

"But still, Nvidia is expected to deliver around $28bn in the Q2, more than double the same time last year, while Microsoft is expected to announce 15% sales and Apple just 3%. It’s just that, no one really knows at this point, if Nvidia deserves a higher price tag.

"This week, the US will reveal its latest GDP update on Thursday. US growth is expected to be revised slightly higher from 1.3% to 1.4% down, but that’s down from 3.4% printed a quarter earlier."

In UK equity markets, Prudential said it would return $2bn to investors via a share buyback to be completed by mid-2026.

"Progress towards our financial objectives will increase the potential for further cash returns to shareholders. Our dividend policy remains unchanged, with the board continuing to expect the 2024 annual dividend to grow in the range of 7-9%," the company said.

Insulation and building products group SIG delivered a profit warning after a challenging first half, as ongoing softness in the building and construction sector across Europe resulted in subdued demand across the majority of its end-markets.

The company said it now has a “more cautious view of the timing of any potential market improvements during H2”, and expects full-year underlying operating profit be in the range of £20-30m, below the current consensus range of £36.7-43m and the £53.1m reported last year.

Elsewhere, Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group said it has entered into a multi-year partnership with THG that will "mutually enhance retail operations at both groups, aligning with Frasers Group's Elevation Strategy".

The partnership includes the integration of the customer credit and loyalty proposition, Frasers Plus, into THG's Ingenuity platform. It marks the first Frasers Plus partnership with an external partner.

Frasers Group will also benefit from THG's courier management services to drive the efficiency and performance of its Australian fulfilment and logistics operations, supporting the international expansion.

In addition, Frasers will buy THG's luxury brand portfolio including Coggles and Flannels.

Source: Sharecast

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Alex

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC) has carved out a double-top price pattern, signaling a potential bearish trend change ahead of key data release that could influence the Fed's interest rate path.

Bitcoin's price journey has been a rollercoaster this month. After surging to nearly $70,000, approaching the all-time high of March, it has now retreated to $63,000, decoupling from Nasdaq's continued move higher, largely due to faster selling by miners, profit-taking by investors near lifetime highs, and outflows from the U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds.

The price action has formed a double top, a bearish technical analysis pattern comprising two peaks with a valley in the middle, usually appearing after a notable uptrend. The second peak represents uptrend exhaustion, with the eventual breach of the low hit between the two peaks confirming a bearish trend change.

"Technically, bitcoin appears to follow a double top formation, whereas the support level is being tested. This chart formation should be our base case unless it becomes invalidated. This formation could easily see a drop to $50,000—if not $45,000," Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said.

"Yes, the U.S. election and CPI should be bullish later this year, but we can still have a steeper correction," Thielen added.

Bitcoin's Double Top Suggests BTC Could Fall to $50K_1

However, the Fed's preferred inflation yardstick, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for May, is expected to show the slowest monthly advance in the core figure in over three years. That would cement the case for renewed Fed rate cuts from September, potentially putting a floor under risk assets, including bitcoin.

"[Recent] Strong economic data has forced [bond] yields higher and precious metals lower on Friday. This continues to stand in the way of digital hard assets like crypto," Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said in the weekly newsletter shared with CoinDesk.

"This week we have multiple Fed Governors speaking, GDP and most importantly PCE on Friday (the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator)," Magadini added.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect no change in the PCE price index and a meager 0.1% uptick in the core PCE, amounting to 2.6% annual advances in both the headline and core figures. The projected core increase, excluding food and energy, would be the smallest since March 2021.

Source:CoinDesk

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Bank of Japan board members noted that high costs of living are hurting consumer spending but they appeared divided over how to proceed with another rate hike as part of its policy normalization, with one member calling for an early action while others urging caution, according to the summary of the bank’s June 13-14 meeting released Monday.

One of the nine members said that “upside risks to prices have become more noticeable” and that those risks “have affected consumer sentiment.” Ahead of the next meeting, the member urged the board to monitor data closely and “raise the policy interest rate not too late” as the likelihood of achieving the 2% price stability target increases.

But there was more cautious voices. “Any change in the policy interest rate should be considered only after economic indicators confirm that, for example, the CPI inflation rate has clearly started to rebound and medium- to long-term inflation expectations have risen,” another member said.

A third member pointed to downside risks to growth, saying that private consumption lacks momentum and there have been successive unexpected suspensions of shipment at some automakers over safety concerns. “As the bank needs to assess the effects of these factors, it is appropriate that it continue with the current monetary easing for the time being.”

On the impact of the weak yen, one member said it could increase the upside risk to the bank’s inflation outlook, and in this context, “the risk-neutral level of the policy interest rate should rise.”

Another member reminded that monetary policy is conducted based on an assessment of the trend in prices and underlying wage developments. “It is not determined by short-term developments in foreign exchange rates,” the member said.

On how the bank should trim its large financial asset holdings, which have killed normal functions of the bond market, one member called for a “gradual” approach, warning that a reduction in the pace of the bank’s purchases of Japanese government bonds “could push down the economy, depending on the timing of the start and the scale of the reduction.”

From the viewpoint of setting an optimal pace of reduction, “the bank should take some time to discuss the plan carefully, including by communicating with market participants,” another member said.

A third member noted that reducing the bank’s balance sheet “is to reduce its increased involvement in the market without exerting disturbing effects on it, and this should be conducted separately from monetary policy.”

Governor Kazuo Ueda told a post-meeting news conference on June 14 that the bank “will not use” the reduction as an “active” monetary policy adjustment tool. “Monetary policy adjustment will be done mainly through short-term interest rates,” he said.

At its June meeting, the nine-member board decided in a unanimous vote to hold the overnight interest rate target steady in a range of 0% to 0.1% for the second straight meeting after conducting its first rate hike in 17 years and ending the seven-year-old yield curve control framework in March.

The board also decided in an 8 to 1 vote to set the stage for gradually reducing the bank’s large holdings of various financial assets for the next year or two years “to ensure long-term interest rates would be formed more freely in financial markets.” It will work out a specific plan at its July 30-31 meeting after bank officials have compared notes with market participants.