Bitcoin Tops $95K for the First Time in Months as Stocks Remain Flat

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin surged past $95,000 for the first time since February, fueled by strong inflows into ETFs and a growing store-of-value narrative, while stocks remained mostly flat amid cautious market sentiment.

Bitcoin continued to soar Friday morning, surging above $95,000 per coin as stocks remained mostly flat.

The biggest cryptocurrency by market cap was recently priced at $95,354, CoinGecko data shows, after rising by nearly 2% over a 24-hour period. In the past seven days, it has risen nearly 13%.

Bitcoin rose as high as $95,563 earlier Friday. That's the highest price recorded since February 24.

Bitcoin's jump comes after the coin took a hit earlier this month and traded below $75,000, following announcements from President Trump about his planned "reciprocal" global trade tariffs.

The stock market and other "risk-on" assets also took a beating and have since recovered—but Bitcoin has recovered more.

"Crypto's behavior the last few days has been different to stocks," GSR Research Analyst Carlos Guzman told Decrypt. "[Crypto investors] thought the worst of tariff news was over, and investors are buying back in," he added, noting that Bitcoin's narrative as a store-of-value asset is strengthening.

Bitcoin and other major crypto assets have in the past traded with U.S. equities—in particular, tech stocks.

The new Bitcoin ETFs have received huge amounts of cash from bullish investors: Since Monday, investors have pumped over $2.6 billion into the funds, data from Farside Investors shows.

Investors shorting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are having their positions closed due to the crypto market's rise. CoinGlass data shows that over the past day, nearly $300 million in positions have been liquidated, with shorts making up $193 million worth.

Of that number, almost $78 million were in Bitcoin short positions—speculators betting on the asset to drop in price.

Other major digital coins and tokens such as Solana, Dogecoin, and Ethereum have all risen significantly over a seven-day period. Solana was recently trading at $152, while Dogecoin was priced above $0.19. Ethereum, the second-biggest coin, was recently trading for $1,800.

Source: decrypt

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Adam

Forex

Economic

The dollar headed for its first weekly gain since mid-March on Friday after China granted some tariff exemptions for U.S. imports, raising hopes that the trade war between the world's two largest economies may be closer to abating.

The U.S. currency has been whipsawed this week by conflicting signs for a thaw in the fraught relations between Washington and Beijing.

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a de-escalation of their tit-for-tat tariff battle, saying direct talks were already underway. By Friday, a number of businesses that had been notified of the changes said China had granted some exemptions from its 125% tariffs on U.S. imports and was asking companies to identify the goods that could be eligible.

Trump, in an interview with Time magazine published on Friday, said his administration was talking with China to strike a tariff deal and that Chinese President Xi Jinping has called him. Beijing, however, continues to dispute the U.S. characterization of the talks.

The dollar rose against a basket of currencies , up around 0.2% on the day and set for a modest weekly gain, its first since the middle of March.

"I don't think that anything's necessarily much clearer now, but it does feel like there's no more ramping up. It feels like it's coming the other way and if anything, it seems to be heading more towards de-escalation than escalation," said City Index market strategist Fiona Cincotta.

However, even with some exemptions in place, there was still not enough clarity over the bigger picture to fully reverse some of the investor flows out of the dollar, which has dropped 4% since Trump first announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2.

"We have seen this pull out of oversold territory. But it's definitely too early to be cracking open the champagne for the dollar recovery, we're not quite there yet," said Cincotta.

SAFE HAVENS DROOP

The dollar was up 0.82% on the day against the yen at 143.775 and was up 0.42% against the Swiss franc at 0.82985 francs.

The euro fell 0.24% to $1.1363, while the pound declined 0.12% to $1.332, even after surprisingly strong UK retail sales figures.

Trump had rocked the dollar at the start of the week, sending it spiralling lower against other major currencies with his threats to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates quickly enough. It then jumped back on Tuesday when the president said he never had any intention of replacing the central bank boss.

Washington has made some progress in early trade talks with Asian allies South Korea and Japan.

The Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said after meeting U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that there were no talks on currency targets. Trump has accused Tokyo of weakening its currency to help its exporters.

Japan's chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, who is also economy minister, will hold a second round of trade talks with Bessent next week.

"Even if reports are correct that there will be some easing of tariff rates, a hit to U.S. growth is still coming that will ensure volatility levels remain higher, equity markets are pressured to the downside and the global backdrop remains unfavourable for any sustained move higher in dollar/yen," said MUFG strategist Derek Halpenny.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday reiterated the central bank's commitment to raising interest rates if underlying inflation moved towards the 2% target as projected. But he repeated that policymakers needed to scrutinise the fallout from U.S. tariffs.

The BOJ is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at its two-day meeting that ends on May 1.

Reporting by Hannah Lang in New York and Amanda Cooper in London; additional reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Joe Bavier

Source : reuters

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Thomas

Central Bank

China–U.S. Trade War

Japan may have averted U.S. pressure for a stronger yen in bilateral finance talks on Thursday, but a closer look at officials' descriptions of the meeting suggests currencies and the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy may remain key factors in broader trade negotiations.

Speaking to reporters after his first face-to-face talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said they did not discuss exchange-rate targets or a framework to manage yen rates.

There was no accusation made by the U.S. that Japan was intentionally weakening the yen, according to a Japanese finance ministry official who accompanied Kato.

But Kato was tight-lipped on the details of the 50-minute meeting with Bessent, which was held on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings in Washington.

When asked whether the U.S. made any specific requests to Japan, Kato said: "I can't comment because that goes straight into actual discussions." The U.S. Treasury Department had issued no statement about the Kato-Bessent meeting as of early Friday afternoon.

Still, there were some hints.

For one, Kato said Japan and the U.S. will continue close and constructive dialogue on exchange rates "in relation to the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations" - language some analysts saw as a sign Washington could make demands on the yen as part of broader trade talks.

The meeting preceded top Japanese trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa's scheduled visit to Washington next week for a second round of bilateral trade talks that may prove tortuous for the U.S.

U.S. President Donald Trump's focus on addressing the trade deficit, and his past remarks criticizing Japan for intentionally maintaining a weak yen, have fueled market expectations that Tokyo will face pressure to strengthen the yen's value against the dollar and give U.S. manufacturers a competitive advantage.

"President Trump strongly believes that Japan and China have been intentionally depreciating their currencies. There's little sign of him changing that view, so markets remain cautious," said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute.

"If next week's trade negotiations between Akazawa and Bessent do not go well, Washington's attention could turn towards exchange rates again," he said.

BOJ RATE HIKES

Another key sign was Kato's remark that he explained to Bessent Japan's recent economic developments "including wage hikes." He added that in doing so, he also talked about Japan's "price developments."

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Adam

Central Bank

Economic

US President Donald Trump has some well-known nemeses: illegal immigrants, low-flow showers and last, but definitely not least, the head of the US central bank.

Elevated by Trump to lead the Federal Reserve starting in 2018, Jerome Powell almost immediately found himself under fire - described on social media as a bonehead and questioned about reports that the president wanted him gone.

But however uncomfortable Powell might have been then, his position has only gotten worse.

Not only is he overseeing an economy where the risk of recession is rapidly rising, Trump has been flirting publicly with his removal, writing on social media last week: "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough!"

Coming at a time when Trump has pushed to expand presidential power, while cowing political opponents and ploughing past judicial efforts to check his action, it has raised alarm that he is more serious about, and might be more able to, exert control over the Fed than during his first term.

The tensions cooled this week, when Trump, a day after a market slide that some analysts tied to the comments, denied to reporters that he ever had any intention of firing Powell.

It came amid other hints of de-escalation in Trump's economic rhetoric as his policies, especially trade tariffs, have faced rising political and business backlash.

But Trump did not offer much assurance that he would limit his interventions at the Fed, maintaining his right to have a view and noting that he might call Powell to discuss his concerns about the bank's interest rate policy.

Donald Kohn, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the former vice chair of the Federal Reserve, said the shift in tone appeared intended to calm financial markets but he did not think it marked the end of a fight over the Fed, an institution considered vital to the health of the world's largest economy.

"It's a testimony to the market's response," he said. "But I think it's way too soon to say that there's a stability there."

What is Trump's problem with Powell?

Trump's clash with the Fed is ostensibly rooted in differences over where the bank should fix its key interest rate, which plays an influential role shaping borrowing costs for credit cards, mortgages and other loans.

Lower rates make it easier to borrow and tend to deliver an economic boost. Higher interest rates dampen activity, helping to keep prices stable.

Trump, who cut his teeth professionally taking out loans as a property developer, has long confessed to liking a low interest rate policy.

He objected when the Fed raised rates in his first term and has been pushing Powell to cut them now, arguing that inflation has cooled and keeping rates too high could do unnecessary economic damage.

"There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW," he wrote on social media earlier this week, referring to Powell.

A threat to Fed independence?

Trump is hardly the first politician to cast the bank as a scapegoat at a moment of economic turmoil - or to press for lower interest rates.

Nor is he alone in his criticism of Powell, who infamously initially dismissed post-pandemic price inflation as "transitory" and has been faulted for being too focused on backward-looking data.

His pressure on the bank, however, breaks with Washington tradition in recent decades of presidential deference to the Fed.

It has drawn comparisons to former President Richard Nixon, who pushed his Fed chairman to loosen its policies ahead of the 1972 election, moves later blamed for feeding the high-inflation, low-growth "stagflationary" dynamic of that decade.

The idea that Trump could exert control over the Fed elicits horror among many economists, who say history is littered with examples of countries where political interference at central banks led to spiralling prices and economic ruin.

Sarah Binder, professor at George Washington University and a scholar of the Federal Reserve, said confidence in Fed independence is key to maintaining market faith that inflation will be controlled.

If shaken, it could lead to higher borrowing costs for everyone, as investors demand higher interest rates for holding debt, she warned, noting that should the Fed eventually cut rates, it is likely to spark speculation about Trump's influence - regardless of how, if at all, it played into the decision.

"That's ultimately the problem. It is perceptions of independence that really matter and that's what the pernicious effects of the attacks are they do raise doubts about whether the Fed can be as stalwart as central bankers want to be," she said.

Can Trump fire Powell?

Joe Lavorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, who served on the National Economic Council during Trump's first term, said he saw little need for Trump to dial back his attacks, noting that he was making a "very classic macro argument" about the bank's flaws.

"I'm completely on board with the president's sympathies or comments that the Fed has historically been late," he said, adding that he thought stock market falls had been driven primarily by questions about trade policy.

He said he believed that Fed officials would remain more responsive to financial conditions than the president, noting that, if anything, Trump's pressure could make it more hesitant to cut, lest it be perceived as being cowed.

"Ultimately the Fed is going to do what's prudent," he said. "The question is just the timing."

Powell, a longtime Washington lawyer whose term as chair is due to end next year, has maintained that he is unbothered - and uninfluenced - by the criticism and asserted that Trump does not have the legal authority to remove him.

But the strength of his position is a matter of legal debate.

By law, Fed governors can only be removed for cause, but it is unclear whether that protection extends to the role leading the board.

The administration has already taken steps to reduce the Fed's regulatory role and is engaged in a legal battle over expanding presidential authority over other government agencies set up with features, like for cause protections, intended to insulate them from partisan pressure.

Mark Spindel, founder and chief investment officer of the Washington-based investment advisory firm Potomac River Capital, who has worked with Prof Binder on Fed studies, noted that the tradition of Fed "independence" had evolved over time, often after political or economic crisis.

"Things that are given can be taken away," he said, hours before Trump appeared to back off.

Asked again for his thoughts a few days later, Mr Spindel wrote back just two words in reply: "Damage done."

Source: bbc

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Kevin Du

Economic

The change in the most senior official who helps oversee U.S. ties with Europe at the State Department comes at a time when Washington is managing an increasingly tense relationship with the continent as President Donald Trump says he wants to take over Greenland, pressure allies on NATO spending and end Russia's war in Ukraine.

It is also the latest change as the Trump administration has proposed a major overhaul of the State Department aimed at ensuring the agency faithfully implements Trump's "America First" priorities.

Louis Bono, a senior foreign service officer who was appointed as senior bureau official in the department's Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs when Trump took office in January, wrote to staff on Friday that Brendan Hanrahan would be taking over the role.

"Brendan brings valuable experience from the private sector and the Senate, where he served on the secretary's staff, making him well poised to lead the bureau through the reorganization and to successfully advance the Secretary's agenda throughout Europe and beyond," Bono wrote in an email on Friday seen by Reuters.

It was not clear what role Hanrahan had in Rubio's Senate office and how long he worked there, or whether he has direct experience working on foreign policy.

Hanrahan's new title of "senior bureau official" typically suggests an appointment for an interim period.

The SBO position serves in an acting capacity when an assistant secretary, a Senate-confirmed position, is yet to be named. It was not immediately clear whether Hanrahan was brought in for a temporary period or for longer.

The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

PRIVATE SECTOR EXPERIENCE

Two State Department officials, who requested anonymity, said they had been told Hanrahan joins the department from Bain Capital and said staff were concerned about his apparent lack of relevant experience.

A LinkedIn page belonging to Brendan Hanrahan and listing Bain Capital as his employer had been taken down on Friday.

A biography on Bain Capital's website that has been deleted but was saved last year by the Wayback Machine says he joined the firm in 2017 and worked on its private equity team. He was previously a consultant at McKinsey and Company, according to the now-deleted biography.

The State Department position that Hanrahan will be filling for the moment typically plays a front and center role in Washington's dealings with European countries including Ukraine and also Russia.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion in Ukraine began in February 2022, State Department officials serving in that role have been instrumental in Washington's diplomacy with Europe and in managing relations with Russia. Those officials were almost always Senate-confirmed.

The administration's negotiations with Russia have so far been led by Trump's special envoy and his close friend Steve Witkoff, who has made his fourth visit to Moscow on Friday since Trump took office to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

There has already been growing concern across some European officials that the Russians are taking advantage of the lack of experience by the U.S. negotiating team. Witkoff is a real estate billionaire who had no diplomatic experience before joining Trump's team in January.

Since taking office in January, Trump has upended U.S. foreign policy, pressing Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire while easing many of the measures the Biden administration had taken to punish Russia for its invasion of its neighbor.

Reporting by Simon Lewis; Additional reporting by Daphne Psaledakis and Humeyra Pamuk; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Daniel Wallis

Source: Reuters

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Michelle Reid

Central Bank

Cryptocurrency

Martin Schlegel, the head of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), has rejected the idea of diversifying the country's reserves with Bitcoin, Reuters reports.

Schlegel has stated that the leading cryptocurrency is unable to fulfill the existing requirements for its reserves, pointing to its high volatility.

A new initiative was announced in December to amend the Swiss constitution in order to diversify the bank's assets with Bitcoin.

In order to be considered by the country's parliament, the initiative will have to collect a total of 100,000 signatures before June 30.

Back in 2021, a similar initiative failed, but Bitcoin advocates are hopeful that the momentum created by the pro-crypto U-turn in the US could carry over to Switzerland.

Switzerland is known as one of the most crypto-friendly countries in the world, but it might not go as far as amending its constitution to buy Bitcoin.

The total value of SNB's reserves stands at more than $900 billion. Foreign exchange reserves, which are diversified across the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and other currencies, account for the majority of them. The bank's gold reserves stand at $94 billion.

No domino effect

After the US established a strategic Bitcoin reserve in March, some Bitcoin advocates expected that this would kickstart the domino effect, with other major economies following suit. However, major economies like Japan have refrained from embracing Bitcoin. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde categorically rejected the idea of EU central banks adding Bitcoin to their reserves.

It is now clear whether the US itself will purchase Bitcoin, given that the much-hyped SBR will initially contain only forfeited coins.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Thomas

Economic

Forex

“If you look at other crises, if you look at the global financial crisis, or Covid actually, Lehman, the dollar depreciated after those events as well, and then ultimately rallied,” Greene said in an interview with the Atlantic Council in Washington on Friday. “We’re not seeing textbook economics play out here necessarily, but there is some precedent for that.”

The dollar’s decline since Donald Trump launched an all-out trade war earlier this month is seen as unusual as the US currency has historically been a safe haven during times of turmoil. It has even prompted warnings that its world reserve currency status may be under threat, a notion dismissed by BOE Governor Andrew Bailey.

Greene said that it is “too early” to say where the dollar will settle, underscoring how she and other policymakers remain wary over endorsing the view that the trade war will be disinflationary for the UK and push them into a quicker policy easing. Any dollar rebound would push up the cost of imports for the UK.

Greene said that exchange rates will be a key factor in her thinking ahead the BOE’s next interest-rate decision due to be announced on May 8. Money markets are fully pricing in a quarter-point reduction, with two or three more by the end of the year.

“What it really comes down to is probably exchange rates,” she said. “The trade-weighted sterling exchange rate index, it hasn’t moved as much as you might expect, but a lot comes down to what you think will actually happen with the dollar. If it continues to depreciate, then that would, on balance, be disinflationary for the UK economy. If it rallies, then the opposite would be the case.”

The BOE’s trade-weighted pound index is up 0.8% since the start of the year with sterling’s strength against the dollar being partially offset by weakness versus the euro. The pound has jumped over 6% against the dollar this year and fallen 3% against the euro.