Bitcoin Tops $108,000 as Crypto Traders Shrug off Mid-East Tensions

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

If the Securities and Exchange Commission gives it the go-ahead, it could launch within 90 days and expand the administration’s push to bring crypto closer to Wall Street.

Bitcoin climbed above $108,000 on Wednesday, reaching its highest level in weeks, as traders ignored renewed unrest in the Middle East and a US stock market that stayed just below all-time highs.

The world’s OG crypto hit the intraday peak without hesitation, even while altcoins like Ether and Solana dipped slightly in the afternoon.

Meanwhile, lawmakers and regulators in Washington, D.C. made noise that could fuel even more momentum. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, appeared before the Senate Banking Committee earlier in the day and said that stablecoins have “come a long way” and now sit firmly inside the “traditional financial framework.”

Powell’s acknowledgment that crypto isn’t just a side show anymore came on the same day that the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Billy Pulte, directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to begin reviewing how crypto assets, like Bitcoin, could be used to qualify for mortgages.

Billy’s family founded Pulte Group, one of the country’s largest homebuilders, and his influence over the housing sector is substantial. That directive may be seen as a green light for digital assets in US real estate financing.

Trump’s NYSE crypto ETF faces decision window

Inside the New York Stock Exchange, officials are pushing forward a proposal tied to President Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform. The exchange submitted a rule change request that would allow the listing of a Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF linked directly to Trump’s company.

If the Securities and Exchange Commission gives it the go-ahead, it could launch within 90 days and expand the administration’s push to bring crypto closer to Wall Street. Trump, now back in the White House, has been vocal about making crypto a larger piece of the American financial system, and this ETF would mark one of the most significant steps yet.

On-chain analytics show a dramatic split in market behavior. Retail holders, wallets holding less than 1 BTC, have been selling consistently. These addresses dropped to 1.69 million BTC, a 54,500 BTC year-over-year decline, with daily outflows averaging 220 BTC. Bitcoin Tops $108,000 as Crypto Traders Shrug off Mid-East Tensions_1

Bitcoin Tops $108,000 as Crypto Traders Shrug off Mid-East Tensions_1

Over the past 12 months, these wallet movements had a –0.89 correlation to price, meaning the more they sold, the higher the price climbed. At the same time, large wallets, those holding at least 1,000 BTC now control 16.57 million BTC, after adding over 507,000 BTC in a year. These wallets are absorbing around 1,460 BTC per day and show a +0.86 correlation to price, which means their activity tracks upward movement.

That imbalance is sharp. Institutions are taking in nearly seven times the amount retail holders are letting go. Combine that with the fact that only 450 BTC are mined daily after the halving, and the pressure on supply becomes obvious. But what’s different this time is that small traders haven’t jumped back in.

There’s no retail FOMO yet, no frenzy like previous bull runs. Instead, individual holders are still exiting, hinting that the current rally might not even be close to peaking.

Binance, stablecoins, and key support levels show what comes next

Over on Binance, a big move happened on June 24. Net Taker Volume topped $100 million, something that hadn’t happened since June 9. It’s usually seen when overleveraged shorts get wiped or when retail traders pile in all at once. These bursts can fuel short-term buying, but they don’t guarantee lasting demand, and plus the activity also happened alongside $1.25 billion in stablecoin outflows from derivatives exchanges, the largest since mid-May.

Another number traders are watching closely is the Realized Price, also called the cost basis, of short-term holders (STH). These wallets, which hold for fewer than six months, represent over 40% of Bitcoin’s total market cap. That makes their entry points critical.

Right now, wallets in the 1 week to 1 month group are holding at $106,200, while those in the 1 to 3 month range sit at $95,000, and wallets from 3 to 6 months ago are at $93,300. When those values are weighted, the average cost basis lands at about $97,700.

That’s where things get fragile. Bitcoin’s current price is hovering near $100,000, a level that matters both emotionally and technically. If the price dips below $97k, a chain reaction of panic selling could hit the market, especially from STHs who are already nervous. It’s a narrow range, and a dangerous one.

Source: Cyrptopolitan

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Manuel

Economic

Political

President Donald Trump will control the so-called “golden share” that's part of the national security agreement under which he allowed Japan-based Nippon Steel to buy out iconic American steelmaker U.S. Steel, according to disclosures with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The provision gives the president the power to appoint a board member and have a say in company decisions that affect domestic steel production and competition with overseas producers.

Under the provision, Trump — or someone he designates — controls that decision-making power while he is president. However, control over those powers reverts to the Treasury Department and the Commerce Department when anyone else is president, according to the filings.

The White House didn't immediately respond to questions Wednesday about why Trump will directly control the decision-making and why it goes to the Treasury and Commerce departments under future presidents.

Nippon Steel's nearly $15 billion buyout of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel became final last week, making U.S. Steel a wholly owned subsidiary.

Trump has sought to characterize the acquisition as a "partnership" between the two companies after he at first vowed to block the deal — as former President Joe Biden did on his way out of the White House — before changing his mind after he became president.

The national security agreement became effective June 13 and is between Nippon Steel, as well as its American subsidiary, and the federal government, represented by the departments of Commerce and Treasury, according to the disclosures.

The complete national security agreement hasn't been published publicly, although aspects of it have been outlined in statements and securities filings made by the companies, U.S. Steel said Wednesday.

The pursuit by Nippon Steel dragged on for a year and-a-half, weighed down by national security concerns, opposition by the United Steelworkers and presidential politics in the premier battleground state of Pennsylvania, where U.S. Steel is headquartered.

The combined company will become the world’s fourth-largest steelmaker in an industry dominated by Chinese companies, and bring what analysts say is Nippon Steel’s top-notch technology to U.S. Steel’s antiquated steelmaking processes, plus a commitment to invest $11 billion to upgrade U.S. Steel facilities.

The potential that the deal could be permanently blocked forced Nippon Steel to sweeten the deal.

That included upping its capital commitments in U.S. Steel facilities and adding the golden share provision, giving Trump the right to appoint an independent director and veto power on specific matters.

Those matters include reductions in Nippon Steel’s capital commitments in the national security agreement; changing U.S. Steel’s name and headquarters; closing or idling U.S. Steel’s plants; transferring production or jobs outside of the U.S.; buying competing businesses in the U.S.; and certain decisions on trade, labor and sourcing outside the U.S.

Source: AP

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Political

US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Willian J. Pulte ordered on June 25 that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac treat cryptocurrency reserves as eligible assets when they measure risk on single-family mortgage loans, effective immediately.

The two government-sponsored enterprises must draft plans that show how they will recognize borrower crypto holdings without first converting the coins to dollars.

Strict collateral rules and board oversight

Pulte’s signed directive instructs each enterprise to limit recognition to cryptocurrency that sits in wallets controlled by US-regulated centralized exchanges.

The order also requires the enterprises to add risk mitigants that account for market volatility and to keep reserve ratios that reflect the share of collateral held in digital assets.

Additionally, each enterprise must secure board approval before it submits the completed proposal to the FHFA conservator for review. The order is effective immediately.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase and securitize the majority of conforming US residential mortgages. Their risk models determine the amount of capital they must hold against potential credit losses.

By allowing crypto reserves to enter those models, Pulte aims to widen the asset information available for underwriting and “facilitate sustainable homeownership to credit-worthy borrowers,” according to the text of the directive.

Risk-adjusted frameworks

The directive instructs each enterprise to develop an assessment that integrates crypto reserves into its existing loan risk framework. That assessment must describe how the enterprise will value cryptocurrency, apply haircuts, and adjust for daily price swings.

The directive also requires an analysis of how crypto reserves interact with other borrower assets and liabilities. After board approval, each enterprise must send the proposal to FHFA for sign-off before implementation.

By invoking the authority to issue binding instructions that alter underwriting or capital standards, Pulte accelerated a process that otherwise would have needed rulemaking or legislative action.

The order does not change conforming loan limits or documentation requirements but expands the categories of qualifying reserves.

Broader national crypto policy

Pulte announced the action on his social media account the same day, writing that he acted “in keeping with President Donald Trump’s vision to make the US the crypto capital of the world.”

He added: “Today is a historic day in the cryptocurrency industry.”

The directive follows months of internal study, according to Pulte’s remarks. The order does not specify which coins qualify. Still, the reference to US-regulated exchanges limits the pool to tokens listed on venues that follow federal know-your-customer and anti-money laundering rules.

Both enterprises must begin work on the proposals “as soon as reasonably practical,” the directive states. Pulte committed the agency to review each plan once the boards submit them but did not set a public deadline for submission.

The order remains in force unless FHFA rescinds or modifies it.

Source: Cryptoslate

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Manuel

Economic

Political

The White House is making its closing argument for President Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” and it involves some eye-popping projections for the US economy that don’t line up with predictions of independent economists.

How eye-popping? Try economic growth of 4.9% in the short term and up to $11.1 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade if the Senate bill is passed and Trump’s agenda is enacted.

"Those are very big numbers," acknowledged Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran on a call with reporters as he laid out a 27-page report.

The findings were immediately met with skepticism by economists who have come to very different conclusions.

The report nevertheless concludes that Trump’s entire “suite” of policies — from the bill itself to unilateral deregulation efforts to tariffs — could lead in Miran's words to “very material increases in GDP growth, very material increases in investment activity, and very material increases in real wages and take-home pay.”

The case is essentially that certain provisions in the bill — especially deductions for businesses around things like research and development — will lead to a spike in corporate investment that will then fuel 4.6% to 4.9% in additional GDP growth over the next four years.

It's an aggressive projection to say the least. For context, a recent Tax Foundation estimate pegged that figure at 1.1%.

But that outsized 4%+ growth will then fuel, the White House says, a reduction in federal deficits by roughly $8.5-$11.1 trillion over the standard 10-year budget window. That would lead to thousands of dollars in additional income for a typical family and stabilize America’s debt-to-GDP ratio, according to the report.

The rosy predictions from the White House were immediately slammed by a range of economists.

“Well I guess if you are going to make stuff up, go big or go home,” offered former Democratic Congresswoman Carolyn Bourdeaux.

“No credible economist believes this bill is going to reduce the deficit,” she added, noting that “it adds $3+ trillion.” Bourdeaux currently runs the Concord Coalition, a group focused on the national debt.

A range of independent projections — from the Congressional Budget Office to the Tax Foundation to the Penn-Wharton Budget Model — have looked at different versions of the bill and reached a similar conclusion of much lower economic growth and a price tag in the neighborhood of $3 trillion over the next decade.

The back and forth comes after the House passed a first version of the bill last month that was then followed by amendments in the Senate. Majority Leader John Thune hopes to finalize those amendments and put the entire package up for a series of votes starting Friday.

The deliberations are also being closely watched by Wall Street with the mega-bill also responsible for raising a debt ceiling that is ticking towards a government default as early as Aug. 15, the Bipartisan Policy Center projected in a new report also released Wednesday.

A frantic final series of negotiations and cost projections

The problem for Thune and other Republicans is that a series of fights over different pieces of the bill remain unresolved, with GOP leaders facing a daunting to-do list in the days ahead before another round of voting can begin.

In addition to lawmaker objections over issues like state and local tax (SALT) deductions and Medicaid cuts, recent Senate changes already appear likely to increase the price tag further and have further inflamed the concerns of fiscal hawks. The White House Makes its Closing Argument for Trump´s Big Beautiful Bill: ´Very big' Economic Benefits_1

The White House Makes its Closing Argument for Trump´s Big Beautiful Bill: ´Very big' Economic Benefits_1

A look at the tax provisions of the bill in recent days from the Joint Committee on Taxation offered a new price tag that tops $4 trillion.

Wednesday’s White House report offered a breakdown of how officials say the top figure of $11.1 trillion is achievable, suggesting that roughly $2.1-2.2 trillion in deficit declines come from the bill itself.

Other cost savings will come from additional reductions in discretionary spending (about $1.8 trillion) and more tariff revenue (another $3.2 trillion).

The tariff revenue figure is an increase from a recent Congressional Budget Office calculation of $2.8 trillion in revenues, but only if tariffs stay at current levels for the next decade.

The final piece of the report focused on deregulatory and energy policies. The White House concluded those steps could reduce the deficit somewhere between an additional $1.3 and $3.7 trillion over the coming decade.

The new numbers further reinforced a divide between between economists and the White House.

After the House bill was released, there was an $11 trillion chasm between what economists said the bill’s effects would be and what the White House said Trump’s agenda will bring.

The divide is now now even wider, with $15 trillion separating projections released in recent days from each side.

The bill is "far from deficit neutral" added Heather Boushey, a former member of Joe Biden's Council of Economic Advisors on Wednesday afternoon. "There are a lot of shenanigans in how they are calculating their numbers."

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Adam

Economic

President Donald Trump’s policies will reduce US fiscal deficits by up to $11 trillion over the coming decade, according to the White House’s chief economist — a projection that defies analysts who say government debt is poised to climb to record highs in coming years.

“We calculate that, overall, the reduction in deficits as a result of the total suite of the president’s policies is going to be roughly $8.5 to $11 trillion over the 10-year budget window,” Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, told reporters on a call Wednesday. “Those are very big numbers.”

About half the savings, or $3 trillion to $5 trillion, would come from faster economic growth — thanks to the pending Republican tax cut bill, along with deregulation efforts — Miran argued. He also cited a $3 trillion bump in revenues from Trump’s tariff hikes, referring reporters to the Congressional Budget Office’s recent calculation — which came in at $2.8 trillion. Reduced debt loads thanks in part to those savings will help to bring down the US Treasury’s interest costs by approximately $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, he said.

Miran was speaking on a call touting the benefits of the GOP’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” of tax and spending cuts that Trump has called on his party to pass in Congress by July 4. The House passed one draft last month, and the Senate is now aiming to approve its version this week.

The House-passed version of the package was most recently estimated by the CBO to boost the deficit, not cut it, by some $2.8 trillion. The CBO analysis on tariffs also assumed that the tariff rates in effect as of mid-May would be in place for a decade — even though trade talks are under way that may reduce those levies, and Trump won’t be in office throughout that period.

Trade Agreements

A preliminary analysis from the Tax Foundation found the Senate bill would cost $3.9 trillion over a decade, after accounting for economic impacts.

Miran also said that he’s optimistic there will be a flurry of framework agreements with US trading partners getting announced by July 9, the expiration date for Trump’s pause on reciprocal tariffs. Agreements will depend on the willingness of other countries to engage, Miran said, adding that he expects there to be “some stubborn holdouts.” Any agreements notwithstanding, Miran said there’s no downside risk to the CBO’s $2.8 trillion estimate for increased revenue from tariffs.

The CEA offered a breakdown of its analysis showing the impact of Trump’s policies, which included the following estimates:

Faster growth thanks to the tax cuts will shrink fiscal deficits by $2.1 trillion to $2.3 trillion over a decade.Stronger growth due to deregulation and Trump’s energy policies will narrow the deficit by another $1.3 trillion to $3.7 trillion.The US debt-to-gross domestic product ratio will fall to 94% by 2034, instead of rising to 117% if Trump’s 2017 tax cuts were allowed to expire at year-end.

Analysis by the non-partisan CBO in January that incorporated an expectation for the expiration of the 2017 tax reductions showed the US on course for a 107% debt-to-GDP ratio by 2029 — exceeding the all-time high reached in 1946, just after the end of World War II.

For his part, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier this month said there’s “varying scoring” of the tax bill, telling lawmakers, “It is my view that over the 10-year window, it will decrease.”

Federal budget deficits have exceeded 6% of GDP the past two years, despite strong economic growth and job gains. Bessent said this month that the 2025 gap would come in between 6.5% and 6.7%.

When it downgraded the US sovereign rating last month, Moody’s Ratings said it expected deficits to widen, reaching nearly 9% of GDP by 2035, “driven mainly by increased interest payments on debt, rising entitlement spending, and relatively low revenue generation.”

source :Bloomberg

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Manuel

Central Bank

Political

The Federal Reserve unveiled a proposal on Wednesday that would overhaul how much capital large global banks must hold against relatively low-risk assets, as part of a bid to boost participation in U.S. Treasury markets.

The proposal unveiled by the Fed would reform the so-called "enhanced supplementary leverage ratio" so that the amount of capital banks must set aside is directly tied to how large a role each firm plays in the global financial system. The Fed board will consider and vote on the proposal later Wednesday.

The proposal, if completed, could result in a sizeable reduction in capital for the nation's biggest banks. Depository institution subsidiaries at those banks would see capital requirements fall by an average of 27%, or $213 billion. Global bank holding companies would see a 1.4% capital reduction, or $13 billion.

The move is the first in what is expected to be a sweeping effort by the Fed and other bank regulators to step back several rules established following the 2008 financial crisis, as the Trump administration prioritizes deregulation in a bid to boost economic growth.

Fed policymakers touted the changes as a necessary fix, as the requirement imposed as a backstop following the 2008 financial crisis had gradually grown over the years to occasionally constrain bank activities, particularly thanks to the rapid rise in government debt in recent years. Given the leverage requirements direct banks to set aside capital regardless of risk, some Fed officials worried the requirement disincentivized large banks from facilitating Treasury market trading, particularly during times of stress.

"The proposal will help to build resilience in U.S. Treasury markets, reducing the likelihood of market dysfunction and the need for the Federal Reserve to intervene in a future stress event," said Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, in prepared remarks.

Bowman added that the sizeable reductions at the bank level would not allow banks to pay out more to shareholders, as the overarching holding companies at each firm would remain constrained by additional capital requirements. Instead, firms would be able to reallocate capital within their organizations more efficiently, she said.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a prepared statement it was "prudent" to reconsider the rule, given the increase in safe assets on bank balance sheets over the last decade.

Under the current rule, banks must set aside a flat percentage of capital in reserve against all assets. Under the new approach, similar to one proposed but not completed in 2018, banks instead would have to hold capital that is equal to half of their "GSIB surcharge," which is an additional capital requirement imposed on the nation's largest banks, and set based on their overall footprint in the financial system.

While the proposal is expected to advance, two Fed governors indicated they plan to oppose the proposed changes at the Wednesday meeting. Fed Governors Adriana Kugler and Michael Barr said in separate prepared statements they will vote against the proposal, citing the sizeable decrease in capital requirements and skepticism the changes would meaningfully improve bank activities in Treasury markets.

Barr previously served in Bowman's role as the Fed's top regulatory official under President Joe Biden.

Source: Reuters

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Owen Li

Central Bank

Donald Trump has begun interviews to choose a successor for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This move highlights potential shifts in monetary policy and financial markets.

Promises of tariff revenue and changes in leadership could reshape financial markets, potentially impacting monetary policies and global assets.

Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Scott Bessent are considered for Powell's role. Trump criticized Powell's leadership, highlighting potential policy shifts. In a statement, Trump remarked, "I know within three or four people who I’ll pick. I mean, he goes down pretty soon, fortunately, because I think he’s terrible..."

Market dynamics could shift globally, with key cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH responding to rate policy changes. Trump's criticisms point to potential interest rate policy updates.

Jerome Powell emphasized stability, suggesting no immediate changes in monetary policy. Future administration choices could influence financial and crypto markets.

Primary emphasis on new leadership could reshape U.S. financial policies. Historic transitions offer insights into potential market volatility for digital assets. Crypto market adjustments could reflect leadership and policy shifts.