Bitcoin Targets $200K as Profit Metrics Enter ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ Zone

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin’s high profitability signals a possible correction in the short term amid increasing calls for $200,00 BTC price later in 2025.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin's 98% supply in profit signals bullish sentiment but warns of volatility and potential price corrections.

Analysts predict BTC could hit $200,000 by 2025, but sustained demand is key.

Bitcoin price predictions of $200,000 by the end of 2025 are becoming increasingly common, as a surge in profitability not only signals growing bullishness but also risk of a correction in the shorter term.

Bitcoin supply in profit soars to 98%

BTC supply in profit rose sharply to 98% from 87% between June 22 and Sunday, according to onchain data resource Glassnode. As of Tuesday, about 96.7% of all Bitcoin were in profit, sitting above the high band as shown in the chart below.

Historically, such elevated levels lead to market volatility as the potential for profit-taking grows, reflecting bullish sentiment amid caution for price corrections.

Between January and April, for instance, BTC price fell to $74,000 from about $109,000, a drop preceded by Bitcoin’s profitable supply rising to as high as 98.8% on Jan. 21. Bitcoin Targets $200K as Profit Metrics Enter ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ Zone_1

Bitcoin Targets $200K as Profit Metrics Enter ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ Zone_1

Bitcoin: Percentage of supply in profit. Source: Glassnode

Profitability data reflects these bullish albeit cautious market conditions. For instance, Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio has jumped to 2.8 from 1.1 since June 22, exceeding the high band threshold of 2.4, a 156.4% rise. Bitcoin Targets $200K as Profit Metrics Enter ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ Zone_2

Bitcoin Targets $200K as Profit Metrics Enter ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ Zone_2

Bitcoin: Realized profit/loss ratio. Source: Glassnode

While this “reflects strong market confidence, it hints at heightened risk of profit-taking and demand exhaustion if price momentum falls,” Glassnode analysts said in their latest Weekly Market Pulse report.

“The market looks to have entered a cautiously optimistic regime, with stronger positioning from institutional players and renewed accumulation,” Glassnode explained, adding:

“For this rally to sustain, continued demand and broader market confidence will be essential.”

Bitcoin set for “explosive” breakout to $200,000

In November 2022, Bitcoin bounced from the bear market bottom at $15,500, staging a 590% rally to the current price of about $107,000. This price action has seen higher highs and higher lows, forming a channel in the weekly time frame, according to analyst Stockmoney Lizards.

“Bitcoin is about to break out of a multi-year channel,” the analyst said in a Monday post on X.

An accompanying chart showed the price seeking to break above the upper trendline, with the Stockmoney Lizards setting the short-term target at $140,000 and the end-of-year target at $200,000. Bitcoin Targets $200K as Profit Metrics Enter ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ Zone_3

Bitcoin Targets $200K as Profit Metrics Enter ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ Zone_3

“The next leg will be explosive.”BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Stockmoney Lizards

This aligns with the analyst’s earlier predictions that Bitcoin’s breakout of the monthly Optimized Trend Tracker (OTT) bands also targets $200,000 in 2025, with a possible “extension” to $250,000 next year.

Analyst Mags said Bitcoin’s breakout above the same upper trendline as Stockmoney Lizards’ “could trigger a massive bull run.” Mags’ short-term target is the 2.618 Fibonacci level at $155,000. Bitcoin Targets $200K as Profit Metrics Enter ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ Zone_4

Bitcoin Targets $200K as Profit Metrics Enter ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ Zone_4

Source: Mags

The Bitcoin price prediction of $200,000, in particular, is becoming an increasingly popular target for the second half of 2025. For example, 21st Capital co-founder Sina predicts BTC may hit $130,000 to $200,000 by Q4 2025 based on a power law model.

Bitwise Investment said that a falling US Dollar Index fueled by US President Donald Trump’s trade policies could push BTC to $200,000.

Bernstein Research said Bitcoin has the potential to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, backed by increased institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs and BTC treasury companies.

Source: Cointelegraph

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Damon

Economic

One month after the BLS reported that in April the labor market rebounded, as the number of job openings rose sharply by 191K to 7.4 million, and far above estimates of a 7.1 million print, moments ago we got another indication that the labor market is staging a remarkable rebound when the BLS reported that in May the number of job openings soared by 374K to 7.769 million, the highest since Nov 2024 and smashing estimates of a drop to 7.3 million (from an upward revised 7.395 million print).

According to the BLS, the number of job openings increased in accommodation and food services (+314,000) and in finance and insurance (+91,000). The number of job openings decreased in federal government (39,000)

but the highlight is that after a mysterious spike last month which prompted us to muse if DOGE had achieved anything at all, we got a resounding answer today when the BLS confirmed that last month's jump was an outlier and the number of Federal government job openings tumbled by almost a third, from 128K to just 89K, the lowest since covid.

In the context of the broader jobs report, it appears the US labor market may have dodged a bullet because whereas in March the labor market was almost demand constrained, when there were just 117K more openings than jobs in the US, since then the differential has risen and in May the number of job openings was 532K more than number of employed workers, suggesting the onset of a labor recession has once again been punted.

As noted previously, until this number turns negative - which it almost did but may have now averted for the foreseeable future - the US labor market is not demand constrained, and a recession has never started in a period when there were more job openings than unemployed workers.

Said otherwise, in May the number of job openings to unemployed rose for the first time in months, from 1.0x to 1.1x.

While the job openings data was a surprising big beat and continued rebound, there was some mixed news on the hiring side where the number of new hires dipped modestly to 5.503 million from 5.615 million, which was the highest in over a year, so hardly screaming collapse in the labor market. Meanwhile, the number of workers quitting their jobs - a sign of confidence in finding a better paying job elsewhere - rose modestly after dropping the previous month, and in May it grew to 3.293 million from 3.215 million.

How to make sense of this sudden improvement in the labor market?

Well it may have to do with the DOL starting to factor in the collapse in the shadow labor market - the one dominated by illegal aliens - and the replacement of illegals with legal, domestic workers. And since this will surely lead to higher wages, we doubt many Trump supporters will hate the development, even if it means an increase in inflation down the line.

Source: Zero Hedge

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Adam

Commodity

Dollar Weakness and Fed Cut Bets Fuel Gold, but What’s Next for Silver?

Silver edged higher on Tuesday, holding the pivot at $36.30 while traders assessed whether the recent minor top at $36.84 can be cleared.

This comes as gold regained its 50-day moving average at $3320.70 and tested the critical $3347.97 retracement level, driven by a softer dollar and lower Treasury yields that continue to underpin precious metals’ bid.

Federal Reserve Easing Bets Grow as Trump Pressures for Cuts

Daily US Dollar Index (DXY)

President Trump’s aggressive push for a new tax-cut and spending bill, paired with threats of sharply higher tariffs by July 9, rattled markets, driving the dollar index to its lowest since early 2022.

The greenback’s slide, including a 0.64% drop against the yen and 0.33% against the Swiss franc, is increasing overseas demand for metals.

Treasury yields also retreated, with the 10-year falling to 4.195% and the 2-year to 3.709%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver while fueling trader interest in safe-haven assets.

Goldman Sachs now expects three Fed rate cuts this year, a notable shift from its prior forecast of just one.

The focus now turns to ADP employment data on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls Thursday for confirmation of potential labor softness, which could deepen dollar losses, adding further support to silver if volatility intensifies around the dollar and rates.

Can Silver Push Through Resistance if Gold Surges?

Daily Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold’s potential breakout above $3348 could trigger momentum toward $3370, a scenario that may spill over to silver.

Silver (XAG) Forecast: Traders Eye $36.30 as Potential Launchpad for Silver Rally_3

Daily Silver (XAG/USD)

For silver, the immediate upside level is the minor top at $36.84; a clear break above this would put $37.32 in sight.

However, rejection of the $36.30 pivot risks a sharp pullback to the $35.40-$34.87 major support zone, which includes the recent bottom at $35.28. The 50-day moving average at $34.30 remains a critical longer-term support level that would likely draw buyers if tested.

Silver Market Forecast: Watch Dollar, Yields, and U.S. Data

Silver’s short-term outlook remains tied to the dollar’s weakness and bond yield trends. A Fed pivot toward deeper rate cuts, combined with U.S. fiscal and trade tensions, keeps the broader metals complex supported.

If buyers can clear $36.84 with conviction, the path toward $37.32 opens, and a gold move toward $3370-$3400 would likely pull silver higher in tandem. Failure at $36.30, however, could accelerate downside toward $35.40, providing traders with a clear technical level for risk management.

For now, watch the dollar, Treasury yields, and incoming U.S. labor data. These external drivers will define whether silver can break higher or if traders should prepare for a retest of deeper supports in the near term.

Source: fxempire

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

In 11 years of European Central Bank retreats to the Portuguese resort of Sintra, euro-region crises have too often been an embarrassing distraction.

That makes this week’s gathering fairly remarkable. While the seminars unfolded on Tuesday, data showed inflation at exactly 2%. As Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel mused on Bloomberg Television, “we’re at our target, and this is really good news.”

So what is the ECB’s next challenge? On Monday evening, President Christine Lagarde offered a reasoned guess: even more of the same.

“The world ahead is more uncertain,” she told attendees over dinner. “That uncertainty is likely to make inflation more volatile.”

Her remarks explained the ECB’s latest strategy review, unveiled yesterday, that keeps officials committed to a “symmetric” approach, focused on either an undershoot or an overshoot of 2%.

But as Lagarde suggested, they’re concerned about greater swings in consumer prices. And while the worry during the last review in 2021 was on the risk of inflation being too low, this time the ECB has just emerged from the worst price growth in the history of the euro. Officials are preoccupied about a repeat — not least because cost changes seem to happen so fast these days.

“If wages then adjust only gradually to these price increases – as we saw in recent years – inflation may remain above target for longer as wage growth slowly catches up,” Lagarde said. “This, in turn, can raise the risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring on the upside.”

A related worry came from the Bank for International Settlements on Sunday. Its officials warn that consumers, scarred by recent inflation, may be far less tolerant of price shocks than they were before the pandemic.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent isn’t persuaded, at least with regard to Americans. Questioned on Bloomberg Television about whether import levies could stoke inflation — a preoccupation both of the BIS and the Federal Reserve — he was dismissive.

“We have seen no inflation from tariffs,” he said. “If we do, which we don’t have to, then they would be a one-time price adjustment. Nothing is more transitory than that.”

Time will tell. Given the volatile environment they’re operating in, neither Lagarde nor Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will speak together on a panel today, show much sign of being convinced of that for now.

Live from Sintra: Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua moderates the policy panel at the ECB Forum featuring Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey and Kazuo Ueda. From 2:30 p.m. London time on July 1 on Bloomberg Television, TLIV on the terminal and Bloomberg.com .

The first seminar of the ECB’s Sintra forum today looked at a sore question for Europeans: why does the American economy perform so much better than theirs?

The answer, according to a paper by Benjamin Schoefer, an associate professor at the University of California at Berkeley, may be uncomfortable for Europeans. He says a large part of the problem may be a rigid employment environment that discourages changes in roles and careers.

“The institutional landscape of European labor markets looks much as it did in the 1980s — high taxes, strong job protection, collective wage setting, and mandated worker voice have proven resilient,” he wrote.

That model “delivered relatively equitable growth” for decades along with other advantages, Schoefer says, before adding a caveat. “These benefits may lose currency as the material gap continues to widen,” he wrote.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Bond

US Treasury yields fell to the lowest level in two months before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday, amid growing political pressure to cut interest rates.

The 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.19%, a level last seen on May 1. Powell will appear on a panel of global central bankers in Sintra, Portugal, later as the US administration steps up its criticism of the Fed as being too slow to reduce borrowing costs.

President Donald Trump sent a note to Powell on Monday with a list of interest rates in other countries, calling for cuts in the US, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said. Meanwhile Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg TV that policymakers “seem a little frozen at the wheel” with regard to deciding on rates right now.

Markets have been ramping up bets on Fed easing in recent weeks, helping make June the best month for Treasuries since February. Traders are pricing a total of 67 basis points of cuts by year-end, compared with around 61 basis points late last week.

Growing expectations of Fed rate cuts pushed the policy-sensitive two-year yield down by as much as 2 basis points to 3.69%, also a two-month low.

“Political interference is driving rate cut expectations and weighing on two-year Treasury yields,” said Elias Haddad, senior strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. Short-dated yields had more room to fall, he said, adding that a further slide in the two-year yield to 3.5% was “a reasonable target.”

A Senate vote on Trump’s massive tax and spending bill expected later in the day will also be in focus, as will the latest readings on the US labor market due later in the week, which may offer more steer on the Fed’s rate path.

Investors are also waiting for Washington to provide greater clarity on tariffs it intends imposing on its biggest trading partners by next week to better gauge their economic impact. The view that levies will weaken the economy has supported Treasuries, while investors have largely shrugged off the risks from the tax plan.

source :Bloomberg

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Warren Takunda

Economic

US Treasury yields fell to the lowest level in two months before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday, amid growing political pressure to cut interest rates.

Growing expectations of Fed rate cuts pushed the policy-sensitive two-year yield down by as much as 2 basis points to 3.69%, also a two-month low.

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

Oil Prices Steady Near 200-Day Average as Traders Eye OPEC+ and Saudi OSPs

Daily Light Crude Oil Futures

Light crude oil futures continue to consolidate near the 200-day moving average at $65.18, with traders awaiting clear catalysts to drive the market out of its recent range. A sustained move above $65.18 could signal renewed buying, targeting resistance at $67.44 and potentially $71.20 if momentum builds. Conversely, a move below this level risks a pullback toward the 50-day moving average near $62.20.

At 10:15 GMT, Light crude oil futures are trading $65.02, down $0.09 or -0.14%.

Will the OPEC+ Output Hike Cap Gains in Oil Prices?

Oil prices held steady on Tuesday as markets anticipate OPEC+ to announce a 411,000 barrels per day production hike for August during its July 6 meeting. If approved, this would bring the group’s total 2025 increase to 1.78 million bpd, equivalent to over 1.5% of global demand, keeping the market well supplied despite recent geopolitical tensions.

Saxo Bank noted that while potential trade deals could improve demand sentiment, the “accelerated rate of output increases” from OPEC+ remains a core concern for bullish traders. Rising supply could act as a ceiling near $67.44 unless stronger demand signals emerge.

Saudi Arabia’s Expected August OSP Hike Could Support Prices

Traders are closely watching Saudi Aramco’s August official selling prices (OSPs) for Asian buyers, expected to rise by 50-80 cents per barrel to a four-month high on robust summer demand and recent spot market strength. Arab Light may increase to $1.70–$2 above Oman/Dubai benchmarks, setting a price tone for nearly 9 million bpd of Middle Eastern crude bound for Asia.

Refiners in Asia have already requested additional term supplies for August and September, citing stronger summer fuel demand. However, rising OPEC+ supplies could counteract these gains, keeping oil within its consolidation band unless demand materially strengthens.

Geopolitical Tensions Ease but Trade Risks Remain

While the Israel-Iran ceasefire helped pull Brent down from highs above $80 to $67, traders remain alert as the July 9 U.S. tariff deadline approaches, with potential higher tariffs risking demand growth. Morgan Stanley expects Brent to retrace toward $60 by early next year as geopolitical risks abate and oversupply concerns persist.

Crude Oil Outlook: Cautiously Bullish If Catalysts Align

Crude oil prices remain in a tight consolidation, with near-term direction hinging on OPEC+ output decisions, Saudi OSPs, and the demand impact from trade policies. A clear breakout above $67.44 could open upside toward $71.20, but rising supply and tariff risks may cap gains, keeping the market in a cautious but constructive holding pattern.