Bitcoin Bull Run Comeback? Whale Exchange Inflow Metric Nears 5-Year High

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin hits cycle peaks once whales cool exchange flows; signs are favoring a repeat of the pattern in 2025.

Bitcoin is teasing bull run continuation as whale inflows to exchanges plateau this month.

Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows whale-sized inbound exchange transactions making a potential lower high in February.

Bitcoin whales tease next phase of bull run

Bitcoin traditionally reaches its cycle peak once whale exchange moves drop from local highs of their own, CryptoQuant shows.

In a Quicktake blog post on Feb. 13, contributor Grizzly highlighted the 30-day simple moving average of the Whale Exchange Ratio — the size of the top 10 inflows to exchanges relative to all inflows.

This came in at 0.46 on Feb. 12, near multi-year highs and up from lows of 0.36 in mid-December when BTC/USD was trading near all-time highs.

Since then, price action has dropped and whale activity has increased. However, the trend is already showing signs of fading.

“Since late 2024, this metric has experienced a robust upward surge, though its momentum has slightly moderated over the past two weeks without a definitive reversal,” Grizzly said.

“Historical trends indicate that a downturn in whale deposits on spot exchanges often precedes a bullish Bitcoin rally.” Bitcoin Bull Run Comeback? Whale Exchange Inflow Metric Nears 5-Year High_1

Bitcoin Bull Run Comeback? Whale Exchange Inflow Metric Nears 5-Year High_1

Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Cointelegraph reported on the high whale inflows earlier this week, while elsewhere, newer whales are on the radar as potential BTC price support.

The aggregate cost basis for large-volume investors holding for up to six months is just under $90,000, making that level — which has held for over three months — essential for traders.

Bitcoin miners at a bullish turning point

Another important cohort, miners, has returned to accumulation this month.

This follows a six-month spate of near-uninterrupted outflows from miner wallets and coincides with a fresh “capitulation” phase, which tends to mark local market bottoms. Bitcoin Bull Run Comeback? Whale Exchange Inflow Metric Nears 5-Year High_2

Bitcoin Bull Run Comeback? Whale Exchange Inflow Metric Nears 5-Year High_2

BTC/USD chart with Bitcoin miner netflows data. Source: Charles Edwards/X

Last July, just before miner outflows picked up, Cointelegraph noted research concluding that the overall impact on the market was already significantly lower than institutional flows, specifically those from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or ETFs.

Source: Cointelegraph

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

"The British Pound strengthened against the U.S. Dollar, benefiting from the broader weakness of the dollar. Hopes of peace talks in Europe could weigh on the USD and favor other currencies," says Ruben Ferreira, an analyst at FlowCommunity.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance is set to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference tomorrow, where further headlines concerning progress towards a deal are expected.

Hopes of peace in Ukraine have bolstered sentiment on European assets, the Pound included, while weighing on oil prices and safe-havens such as the Dollar.

"There are clear risks to USD from any potential movement towards a ceasefire. We would flag three potential channels for this to play out: (i) lower energy prices, coupled with (ii) lower yields, leading to (iii) improved macro sentiment towards Europe," says Dominic Bunning, Head of G10 FX Strategy at Nomura.

Trump said he hopes to have a first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia in the "not too distant future."

While initial signs of progress can weigh on the Dollar, the road to peace in Ukraine will be difficult, with many geopolitical analysts expressing concern that the U.S. and Russia are effectively sidelining Europe and Ukraine.

Asmara Jamaleh, an economist at Intesa Sanpaolo, says uncertainty surrounding the timeline and modalities of the process can limit upside potential against the Dollar, barring sudden favourable developments.

"While any effort for peace can only be a good thing, there's been alarm among European nations and in Ukraine especially, as Trump appears to have set the ball rolling in a phone call with Putin without discussing it with Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy first," notes Raffi Boyadjian, Lead Market Analyst at XM.com.

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Ukraine’s desire for NATO membership to protect against further Russian aggression is unrealistic while telling NATO allies that the U.S. would not contribute troops to any future peacekeeping force.

Trump and Hegseth said they would be happy for Russia to keep the land it conquered.

Ben Wallace, the former UK defence secretary who played a significant and leading role in the West's initial efforts to support Ukraine, said the bit that worried him the most "was this sort of reaching across to President Putin, the lack of support for Zelensky in his press conference yesterday."

He noted Trump wouldn’t even say if he viewed Zelensky as an equal and indeed didn’t really feel that Zelensky was going to be a major player in these negotiations; "it is going to be President Putin and the United States."

Source: Poundsterlinglive

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

Countries across the world are reacting to President Donald Trump's announcement that all imports of steel and aluminium to the US will be taxed at a minimum of 25%.

Trump on Monday removed the exceptions and exemptions from his 2018 tariffs on steel and also hiked his 2018 aluminium tariffs to 25% from 10%.

European Union leaders have vowed the tariffs "will not go unanswered" and will be met with tough countermeasures, while Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canadians will "stand up strongly and firmly" against the hike.

"Canadian steel and aluminium is used in a number of key American industries, whether it's defence, shipbuilding, manufacturing, energy, automotive. Together we make North America more competitive. We will be working with the American administration over the coming weeks to highlight the negative impacts on Americans and Canadians of these unacceptable tariffs," Trudeau told reporters at an AI summit in Paris.

Trudeau added that the two countries should be "doing more together not fighting each other" and that the tariffs were "unjustified" on America's closest ally.

Mexico strongly opposes new tariffs

Mexico’s Economy Secretary, Marco Ebrard, has also strongly opposed the new tariffs, emphasising that Mexico imports more steel from the US than it exports.

While steel imports from the US have increased in the past two years, exports of Mexican steel to the US have decreased.

He also pointed out that the US enjoys a trade surplus with Mexico in terms of steel and aluminium.

Ebrard announced that Mexico would present this data to the Trump administration, appealing for “common sense” in handling trade relations.

"This, as President Trump sometimes says, is about common sense. Well, we take him at his word: let's have common sense; not shoot ourselves in the foot. Don’t destroy what we have built over the last 40 years," Ebrard said at a joint press conference with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Economic experts in Brazil echoed Mexico's warnings, saying the tariffs will increase costs for Americans, as the US is not self-sufficient in steel and aluminium production.

"What is known is that immediately this increases the cost of the American production, to the extent that they are not self-sufficient in the production of these products (steel and aluminium). And everything made from these raw materials will become more expensive for the American people themselves. So, it's quite feasible to imagine that there could be room for some degree of conversation. But all this is speculation at the moment," said Gilberto Braga, a professor at Brazil's IBMEC Institute.

Local councilman Raone Ferreira has also said the production chain of the national steel company, which has a factory in Volta Redonda, generates about 40,000 direct and indirect jobs.

The local politician warned of potential consequences as a result of the new tariffs.

"If the impact in the steel production is confirmed, the impact on the generation of employment in the municipality would be enormous, and also on public policies," he said.

Ferreira explained that the city's municipality depends on direct and indirect revenues from the national steel company to carry out education, mobility and health projects.”

Brazil is a major exporter of steel and aluminium to the US, and in 2024 was the second largest supplier behind Canada, according to the US department of commerce.

Japan asks to be exempt from the tariffs

Meanwhile, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Hayashi Yoshimasa, says his government has sent a request to be exempt from the tariffs via the Japanese embassy in the US.

"We will take firm and necessary measures while closely monitoring details and any possible impact (on Japan)," Yoshimasa told reporters at a news conference in Tokyo.

President Trump announced on Wednesday he plans to reset US taxes on all imports to match the same levels charged by other countries reacting to his tariffs.

“It’s time to be reciprocal,” Trump told reporters earlier this week. “You’ll be hearing that word a lot. Reciprocal. If they charge us, we charge them.”

Source: Euronews

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Owen Li

Economic

The lack of investments and raising the cost of capital for gas development will endanger energy security and weaken the industry’s capability to provide affordable, reliable and sustainable energy to people at large, said International Gas Union (IGU) president Li Yalan.

She said this has prompted the union to urge and encourage its members and the global key stakeholders to ensure investment and financing access for gas.

"For Asia’s current coal-dependent energy mix, natural gas is one of the fundamental energies to support countries’ energy transition and carbon neutrality efforts.

"Until large-scale, commercial, long-term electricity storage technology matures, natural gas will still play an important role in the energy system," she said at the fourth edition of the Malaysian Gas Symposium (MyGAS 2025).

She noted that estimates indicated that natural gas met around 40% of the increase in global energy demand in 2024, more than any other fuel.

Global natural gas consumption reached a record high of 4,212 billion cubic metres (bcm), a 2.8% increase year-on-year.

The strong growth was mainly due to the Asia-Pacific region, which accounted for almost 45% of incremental gas demand in 2024, on the back of continued economic development, which showed that there is still huge potential for natural gas development in Asia Pacific.

"In 2025, world natural gas consumption is expected to reach 4,292 bcm. Asia Pacific will continue (to account) for the majority of that increment.

"Meanwhile, Europe is expected to import more liquified natural gas (LNG) to replace pipeline gas. All these factors will impact the supply and price of the global gas market, whose balance remains fragile," said Li.

On the local front, Li said Malaysia, as the third largest natural gas producer in the Asia-Pacific region after Australia and China, would play a crucial role with its rich gas reserve, and its increasing LNG production capacity.

"At the same time, due to its geographical proximity to China, India and other natural gas markets, the Malaysian gas industry will have greater potential development," she said.

Malaysia is also the world’s fifth largest LNG exporter, with exports reaching over 28 metric tonnes, accounting for 7% of the global LNG trade.

In 2024, Malaysia exported 7.85 million tonnes of LNG to China.

Uploaded by Liza Shireen Koshy

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

The Pound-to-Euro exchange rate gapped higher to 1.1995 in the minutes after the ONS said GDP rose 0.1% in the final quarter of the year, up from 0% in the previous quarter and surpassing an expectation of -0.1%.

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate jumped through the 1.25 barrier after the release showed 0.4% growth for the month of December, marking a strong recovery from November's 0.1% and exceeding the expectation of 0.1%.

"There is no denying that domestic demand performed strongly going into Christmas. The question remains though as to how (real) labour market pressures and weak confidence will feed through to growth after that," says Sam Hill, Head of Market Insights at Lloyds Bank.

These data will come as a relief to Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is desperately trying to drum up confidence in the UK economy following a near-ubiquitous run of poor economic data releases that suggests the economy has effectively flatlined under her tenure.

These data will also ease the Bank of England's concerns that the economy will need another interest rate cut next month.

UK bond yields fell as markets priced out the odds of a March cut, and the Pound is rising in response.

Pound Sterling Jumps against Euro & Dollar on GDP Relief_1

Above: GBP/EUR at five-minute intervals.

The ONS data shows government spending was the primary driver of the growth at 0.8%, and analysis from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NISER) says higher government spending will stimulate economic growth to 1.5% in 2025.

This figure would surprise most economists and would exceed the Bank of England's forecast for growth to reach just 0.75%.

A government spending-fuelled acceleration in the economy would also wrong-foot markets that expect a much poorer outturn in the year ahead, meaning February's print could be the first of a run of better-than-expected outturns that would inevitably reduce the odds of further Bank of England rate cuts.

The effect on financial markets would include rising bond yields and pound exchange rates in the coming months. "We think that this is a solid platform for the pound to stage a deeper recovery, even if GBP/USD is sticky around $1.25 in the short term," says Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. Pound Sterling Jumps against Euro & Dollar on GDP Relief_2

Pound Sterling Jumps against Euro & Dollar on GDP Relief_2

But We're Still Getting Poorer

Although the headline figures will relieve the government, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the Chancellor won't receive a political dividend as your everyday Brit won't feel any benefit.

In fact, the average Brit was worse off over this period as real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 4 2024.

This describes an economy where immigration-fuelled population growth is outstripping economic output.

The NIESR says even if the economy strikes their out-of-consensus output of 1.5% in 2025, "growth won't immediately translate into higher living standards for every household."

In fact, "the living standards of the bottom 40% of households will not return to pre-2022 levels before the end of 2027."

Pound Sterling Jumps against Euro & Dollar on GDP Relief_3

Above: GDP per person.

Economists Forecast Disappointment

Breaking down the growth figures reveals the challenges for the UK in the coming months.

Construction grew by 0.5% in Q4, the services sector increased by 0.2% and production fell by 0.8%. International trade also subtracted from Growth.

"Higher taxes for businesses, a lingering drag from the previous interest rate hikes and softer overseas demand explain why we have revised down our UK GDP growth forecasts, from 1.3% to 0.5% for 2025 and from 1.6% to 1.5% for 2026," says Paul Dales, Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics.

Pound Sterling Jumps against Euro & Dollar on GDP Relief_4

Above: UK employment is falling. Image courtesy of Lloyds Bank.

This means Capital Economics have shifted forecasts from being a bit stronger than those of the consensus and the Bank of England to a bit weaker.

Neil Birrell, Chief Investment Officer at Premier Miton Investors, says it would be incorrect to be talking about an economy that is in good health.

"After all, it only grew at 0.1%. Worryingly, business investment fell sharply, displaying the level of confidence in the corporate sector at present. The data is better than expected, but nothing to get excited about," he says.

If the more pessimistic forecasts do come to pass, then the Pound will struggle in the coming year.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Cohen

Stocks

Economic

The Russian rouble and stocks surged on Thursday after a telephone conversation between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in which the two leaders discussed ways to end the Ukraine war.

At 0745 GMT, the rouble was up 3% at 90.90 against the dollar, the highest level for the Russian currency since September 2024, according to data from the over-the-counter market.

The rouble briefly touched the level of 89.9, the highest since September 11, during the trading session.

The rouble strengthened 2.6% against the dollar in the previous session and is up 20% since the start of the year. The Moscow Exchange (MOEX) index surged 5.8% on Wednesday and another 4.2% on Thursday.

"The moment investors have been waiting for has arrived. The next step towards easing geopolitical tensions," Sinara brokerage analysts said.

Russia's sanctioned corporations such as gas giant Gazprom, whose shares were hit by losing the European gas market, dominant lender Sberbank and liquefied natural gas producer Novatek led the market rally.

Foreign investors cannot buy assets at MOEX due to Western sanctions, imposed in 2024. Due to sanctions, all trade in dollars and euros have moved to the over-the-counter market, making China's yuan the most traded foreign currency.

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

Britain’s economy unexpectedly picked up in the final three months of 2024, official figures have shown, easing pressure on the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, after flatlining during the summer.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show gross domestic product rose by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024 – after zero growth in the previous three months – to beat the forecasts of City economists and the Bank of England for a decline of 0.1%.

The latest snapshot will provide a shot in the arm for Labour after Reeves faced intense criticism for denting business and consumer confidence with her £40bn tax-raising October budget.

Monthly figures show the economy grew by a better-than-expected 0.4% in December, fuelled by growth in the UK’s dominant services sector after a strong month for business-facing services. Economists had expected growth of 0.1% in December.

Liz McKeown, the ONS director of economic statistics, said: “The economy picked up in December after several weak months, meaning, overall, the economy grew a little in the fourth quarter of last year.

“Across the quarter, growth in services and construction were partially offset by a fall in production. GDP per head, in contrast, fell back slightly in the quarter.

“In December, wholesale, film distribution and pubs and bars all had a strong month, as did manufacturing of machinery and the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry. However, these were partially offset by weak months for computer programming, publishing and car sales.”

Business surveys after the October budget had indicated a fall in hiring and weakness in private sector activity. Retailers also warned of a disappointing Christmas on the high street.

The latest snapshot showed output in business-facing services increased by 0.2% over the fourth quarter, while consumer-facing services increased by 0.1%.

The production sector – which includes manufacturing and energy – was estimated to have declined for a fifth consecutive quarter, shrinking by 0.8%. Construction output was estimated to have grown by 0.5%.

Responding to the GDP figures, Reeves said: “The growth numbers have come in higher than many expected, but I’m still not satisfied with the level of growth that our economy is achieving.

“And that’s why I am determined to go further and faster in delivering the economic growth and the improvements in living standards that our country deserves.”

The housing minister Matthew Pennycook told Times Radio: “Construction numbers are up, but we’re not satisfied by these numbers. But on the other hand, we always knew that there was no silver bullet, no simple remedy to turning around 14 years of economic stagnation.”

The shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, said: “The chancellor promised the fastest growing economy in the G7, but her budget is killing growth.

“Working people and businesses are already paying for her choices with ever rocketing taxes, hundreds of thousands of job cuts and business confidence plummeting. It does not need to be this way.”

Ben Jones, the lead economist at the Confederation of British Industry, said the rebound in activity in December was encouraging, although growth remained lacklustre. “The data supports our view that the loss of momentum in the second half of last year will prove to be a soft patch for the economy rather than a slide back into stagnation,” he said.

Last week, the Bank of England halved its growth forecasts for the UK economy and warned households would come under renewed pressure from rising inflation. It cut interest rates from 4.75% to 4.5%.

Expectations for further cuts were unchanged in financial markets after the GDP data was released on Thursday, with two more reductions expected before the end of the year.

The pound hit a one-week high after the data beat expectations, rising more than half a cent against the dollar at just over $1.25. The UK currency had already been strengthening on Thursday morning, as the markets welcomed the prospect of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.