Bank Of Canada Signals Likely End To Rate Cuts, But Keeps Options Open

A Bank of Japan move to raise interest rates at a time when the government is calling on companies to invest more would likely send a mixed message on policy, according to the leader of Japan's ruling coalition partner.

"We are at a point where we are calling for more investment in the private sector, and such a move could seem like a contradictory measure," Japan Innovation Party co-leader Fumitake Fujita said in an interview with Bloomberg News on Wednesday, referring to an increase in borrowing costs. "Our basic stance is that restraint needs to be exercised regarding the timing."

The comments come as investors, BOJ watchers and businesses try to gauge when the central bank will next raise interest rates and whether the formulation of an economic package by new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet in the coming weeks might delay that move.

Economists and traders have largely boiled the likely timing down to a move coming in either December or January. Fujita's comments point to a cautious view about a rate hike coming so soon after a fiscal package and extra budget are expected by early December. The BOJ next sets policy on Dec. 19.

Market players are also wanting more clarity on how the government will fund plans to increase defense spending and if it will end up lowering the sales tax, another measure that would put more strain on the nation's finances.

The JIP, also known as Ishin, formed a new coalition with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party just over two weeks ago, after the LDP's long-time partnership with Komeito collapsed in mid-October. Ishin is a right-leaning party based in Osaka that provides the coalition with more seats than the centrist Komeito in the lower house, but still leaves it two short of a majority.

The new coalition marks a shift in the government's stance to focus more on economic growth and less on fiscal consolidation. Fujita expressed concern about rate hikes that might hinder efforts to encourage business investment and higher wages, putting the brakes on growth.

"We are at a stage of focusing more on the real economy," he said, adding that nominal wages are getting closer to matching inflation levels and businesses are doing better. "We're not at a stage to conduct monetary policy that ends up having a big impact."

Still, Fujita said there is scope to consider incremental hikes at timings that are "appropriate," but he didn't specify when he thought the next rate hike should take place.

Last week, the BOJ left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, pushing the yen to a fresh eight-month low despite Governor Kazuo Ueda hinting that a hike is getting closer. The BOJ is now tasked with gauging the timing for its next move without being swayed by weakness in the currency or political leaders at home or abroad.

Fujita acknowledged the hesitation in markets over how to interpret Takaichi's comments on fiscal policy, saying that as her government pulls together its first extra budget, "the message from the government needs to be a focus on growth and a call for investment."

Pursuing that messaging without pushing down the yen may be a difficult balancing act. "I guess the only way to go about it is by watching markets closely," he said.

Takaichi's government has already started discussing an extra budget, partly aimed at relieving inflationary pressure on households and raising defense spending to 2% of GDP this year, two years ahead of schedule.

Fujita dismissed the possibility of funding the earlier increase in defense spending with higher taxation but didn't specify how more outlays will be funded.

"We can't know unless we try it, and it also depends on the pacing," he said. He added that in the longer term, he hoped to see a stronger domestic defense industry that would cut back on the need to buy defense equipment from overseas producers.

The Ishin co-leader also said that discussions over cutting the sales tax on food would take place but avoided giving specific details on how those discussions may go.

One of the largest discrepancies in policy between Ishin and the LDP during the upper house election in July was over inflation relief. While the LDP at the time advocated cash handouts to help households, Ishin campaigned for a temporary cut in the sales tax on food.

When the coalition formed, the two parties compromised by agreeing to discuss a potential sales tax cut without specifying a deadline for such discussions. Fujita said that there was general alignment with Takaichi on the direction of countering inflation, but added that there are political concerns at play as well.

He said that the coalition will continue to weigh up a potential cut further down the line, based on how the economy is faring after the extra budget and after gauging the impact of the economic package on households.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

New Zealand's top central banker said on Thursday that the deterioration in the country's labour market was within the bank's expectations, after data this week showed the jobless rate in the third quarter rose to the highest level since 2016.

"It is hard out there, that is something that we had anticipated in terms of where we're in the economic cycle," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby said at a parliamentary committee hearing.

Hawkesby was speaking following the release of the RBNZ'sFinancial Stability Report on Wednesday.

Hawkesby reiterated that the central bank's assessment ofthe financial system was that it was "well-placed, not only forwhat's going on at the moment, but some more severe scenarios aswell, if they were to play out."

Hawkesby also said that there was no shortage of things toworry about at the moment, that risks remain elevated relativeto recent years and that top of the list of concerns was globaltrade fragmentation and trade wars.

"We don't think we're out of the worst yet," Hawkesbysaid. * Hawkesby said New Zealand was currently experiencing amulti-speed economy with different regions and different sectorsresponding in different ways.

Source: Investing

Nexperia said it suspended supplies to its China factory because the local unit refused to make payments, laying bare the internal discord at the embattled automotive chipmaker.

The Dutch company, owned by Chinese firm Wingtech Technology Co., supplies power control chips used by automakers from Volkswagen AG to BMW AG. It notified customers on Oct. 29 that it was halting the direct supply of wafers to its assembly plant in China.

Nexperia said its entities there had stopped operating within the established corporate governance framework and were ignoring global management's instructions, according to a statement late Wednesday.

"We cannot oversee if and when products from our facility in China will be delivered," the Nijmegen, Netherlands-based firm said. "Given the missing transparency and oversight over the manufacturing processes we cannot guarantee the intellectual property, technology, authenticity and quality standards for products delivered from the Nexperia facility in China as of Oct. 13."

The Dutch government assumed veto powers over Nexperia in September over concerns Wingtech was hobbling the chipmaker and threatening the supply of vital components. China retaliated by imposing restrictions on exports of Nexperia's products, a standoff that put the auto industry's supply chain at risk and forced carmakers to slow production.

Nexperia on Wednesday said the China unit's refusal to pay for the wafers shipped to its factory "is not an isolated incident." It alleged misappropriation of Nexperia China entities' corporate seals without legitimate cause or explanation, and said the unit sent unauthorized letters with false information to customers, subcontractors, third party suppliers and employees. Wingtech representatives didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.

Nexperia China also established "unauthorized bank accounts and was directing customers to remit payments to these accounts," it said in the statement.

China this week criticized the Dutch government for not taking enough steps to resolve the dispute after Beijing announced Nov. 1 that it would grant exemptions to Nexperia's exports from China.

The chipmaker, while welcoming China's commitment to the restoration of the supply chain, on Wednesday said it hoped to see further details on the conditions, criteria and procedures on lifting of the curbs.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

President Donald Trump's administration has revoked around 80,000 non-immigrant visas since its inauguration on January 20 for offenses ranging from driving under the influence to assault and theft, a senior State Department official said on Wednesday.

The extent of the revocations, first reported by Washington Examiner, reflects a broad immigration crackdown initiated when Trump came into office, deporting an unprecedented number of migrants including some who held valid visas.

The administration has also adopted a stricter policy on granting visas, with tightened social media vetting and expanded screening.

Around 16,000 of the visa revocations were tied to cases of driving under the influence, while about 12,000 were for assault and another 8,000 for theft.

"These three crimes accounted for almost half of revocations this year," said the senior State Department official, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

In August, a State Department spokesperson said Washington had revoked more than 6,000 student visas for overstays and breaking the law, including a small number for "support for terrorism."

The department also said last month that it had revoked the visas of at least six people over social media comments about the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in May said he has revoked the visas of hundreds, perhaps thousands, of people, including students, because of involvement in activities that he said went against U.S. foreign policy priorities.

Directives from the State Department this year have ordered U.S. diplomats abroad to be vigilant against any applicants whom Washington may see as hostile to the United States and with a history of political activism.

Trump administration officials have said that student visa and green card holders are subject to deportation over their support for Palestinians and criticism of Israel's conduct in the war in Gaza, calling their actions a threat to U.S. foreign policy and accusing them of being pro-Hamas.

Source: TradingView

Japan's real wages fell for the ninth consecutive month in September as resurgent inflation outgrew nominal pay, government data showed on Thursday, highlighting the wage-price gap that complicates the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) rate hike plans.

The BOJ kept interest rates unchanged at the October 29-30 policy meeting and Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled that the 2026 wage outlook would be the most crucial factor in determining the timing of the next hike.

Inflation-adjusted real wages, a key determinant of household purchasing power, decreased 1.4% in September from a year before, the labour ministry data showed.

That followed a revised 1.7% drop in August and extended the contraction streak that began in January.

Average nominal wage, or total cash earnings, rose 1.9% year-on-year to 297,145 yen ($1,971) in September, after posting revised 1.3% growth in the previous month.

The gain fell short of the 3.4% rise in consumer prices, which picked up pace for the first time since April. The inflation rate the ministry uses to calculate the headline real wage figure includes fresh food prices but not rent costs.

Regular pay, or base salary, increased 1.9% in September, matching the pace seen in August after a downward revision. Overtime pay, a barometer of business activity strength, rose 0.6% in September, picking up from revised 0.4% growth in August.

Special payments, mostly consisting of one-off bonus payments, rose 4.5% in September after a 7.8% fall in August. The indicator tends to be volatile outside of the common summer bonus months of June and July.

Japan's largest labour organisation, Rengo, last month set a "5% or more" target for the 2026 spring pay talks, which typically conclude in mid-March. This year, Rengo member unions secured an average wage hike of 5.25%, the biggest in 34 years.

New Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Tuesday said the country has yet to achieve sustainable inflation accompanied by wage gains, suggesting her preference for the central bank to go slow in raising interest rates.

Source: TradingView

A federal investigator said a UPS cargo plane's left wing caught fire and an engine fell off shortly before it crashed and exploded into a fireball in Louisville on Tuesday night, killing at least 11 people and injuring 15 with some people still unaccounted for.

At least 28 National Transportation Safety Board agents arrived at the site in Kentucky and began searching for clues about the possible cause of the disaster, which saw the UPS plane crash shortly after takeoff at the Louisville Muhammad Ali international airport, leaving behind a fiery trail of destruction on the ground and a huge plume of black smoke.

After the plane was cleared for takeoff, a large fire developed in the left wing, said agent Todd Inman of the NTSB, which is leading the investigation. The plane gained sufficient altitude to clear the fence at the end of the runway before crashing off airport property, Inman told reporters.

Airport security video "shows the left engine detaching from the wing during the takeoff roll", he said.

The cockpit voice recorder and data recorder were recovered, and the engine was discovered on the airfield, Inman said.

"There are a lot of different parts of this airplane in a lot of different places," he said, describing a debris field that stretched for half a mile.

The plane, a McDonnell Douglas MD-11, had three crew members onboard and crashed at about 5.15pm local time on Tuesday, according to the Federal Aviation Administration. It was bound for Honolulu.

So far, 11 deaths and at least 15 injuries have been reported, according to Andy Beshear, Kentucky's governor. He said in a social media post he expected the death toll to rise to 12 by end of day.

"The tough news continues today as the death toll in Louisville has now risen to at least 11, and I expect it to be 12 by end of the day," Beshear's post read. "Even harder news is that we believe one of those lost was a young child."

The UofL Health hospital system said it was treating 15 patients in relation to the crash, with two of them in critical condition at the hospital's burn center. Other injuries ranged from minor to severe burns, blast injuries, shrapnel injuries and smoke inhalation injuries.

"First responders have located nine total [dead] victims at the site of the UPS crash . We will continue to provide information as available," said Craig Greenberg, Louisville's mayor.

Beshear said officials did not expect to find any more victims and were moving from rescue to recovery mode. He said there were a handful of people investigators were still searching for that they hoped were not on site.

Four of those killed were not onboard the plane, said Brian O'Neill, the Louisville fire department chief.

Hundreds of firefighters have fanned out to deal with fires that erupted on the ground after the crash, although local leaders have asked the public to not move any debris and instead report it to help investigators piece together what happened.

"We have put together a form where residents can report debris in your yard," Greenberg posted on X. "We ask that residents do not touch or move any debris on your own."

Investigators will try to find out how a seemingly routine flight – the UPS hub at Louisville has 300 flights a day – went so badly wrong. Officials have said that there were no hazardous materials on the plane.

Videos taken by onlookers showed flames on the plane's left wing, with the aircraft then lifting off the ground before crashing and exploding into a huge fireball. Nearby residents reported hearing loud booms and witnessed flames in the sky and on the ground.

The amount of fuel on the plane would make a large explosion almost inevitable, Pablo Rojas, an aviation attorney, told the Associated Press. "There's very little to contain the flames and really the plane itself is almost acting like a bomb because of the amount of fuel," he said.

Mary Schiavo, a former Department of Transportation inspector general, analyzed video of the crash for CNN.

"[The parts] expel from that engine, and the centrifugal force from the engines, the blades spinning, and they can cut through the plane and cut fuel lines," Schiavo said of the parts. "That engine clearly came off of that plane before the final impact. The poor pilots could do nothing at that point."

The Louisville airport canceled all outbound flights following the crash. A shelter-in-place order surrounding the airport has now been reduced to a quarter-mile radius around the crash site.

Source: GUARDIAN