Australia Nears Breakthrough Canola Deal With China, Sources Say

Economic

Summary:

Canberra is close to an agreement with Beijing that would allow Australian suppliers to ship five trial canola cargoes to China, sources familiar with the matter said, a move towards ending a years-long freeze in the trade.

High-speed bullet train travels past a rapeseed or canola field in Haian · Reuters

CANBERRA/BEIJING (Reuters) -Canberra is close to an agreement with Beijing that would allow Australian suppliers to ship five trial canola cargoes to China, sources familiar with the matter said, a move towards ending a years-long freeze in the trade.

China, the world's largest canola importer, sources nearly all of its imports from Canada but those supplies could be limited by an anti-dumping probe Beijing is conducting. China imposed 100% tariffs on Canadian canola meal and oil this year amid strained diplomatic ties.

Australia, the second-largest canola exporter, has been shut out of the Chinese market since 2020, mainly due to Chinese rules to stop the spread of fungal plant disease, but the trial cargoes could reopen trade and reduce Canada's market share.

Chinese and Australian officials are finalising a framework to address Beijing's phytosanitary requirements aimed at preventing the spread of blackleg disease, according to two Australian agriculture industry sources briefed on the negotiations.

"It looks like we've found a pathway that works for everyone," said one of the sources. "Now we need to run a few ships and see if it all works."

The five trial cargoes will be handled by trading companies once the framework is agreed, the sources said.

Two trading company sources familiar with the negotiations said the shipments would carry between 150,000 and 250,000 metric tons of Australian canola, also known as rapeseed, to China.

The sources declined to be named as they were not authorised to speak publicly on the matter.

In response to a query from Reuters, Australia's agriculture ministry said: "This is an active and ongoing government-government discussion and details have not yet been finalised."

China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

China has bought an average of 4 million metric tons of canola, worth over $2 billion, each year for the last five years, for use in cooking oil, renewable fuels, and animal feed.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is currently visiting China, underscoring a warming of ties since his Labor government won power in 2022.

The planned shipments follow smaller test deliveries last year, when Australia exported 500 tons of canola to China in both June and July 2024, according to Australian trade data.

The negotiations have focused on addressing China's requirement that canola shipments contain less than 1% admixture — impurities such as chaff and broken seeds - and its concerns of blackleg contamination, the two sources briefed on the talks said.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Economic

UK Inflation Reaches New G7 Peak Following Fiscal Changes

The United Kingdom recorded the highest inflation rate among G7 countries in June, rising to 3.6% according to the Office for National Statistics. This marked the fastest rate of consumer price growth since January last year and came just months after Chancellor Rachel Reeves implemented significant cost burdens on employers through National Insurance hikes and a minimum wage increase starting in April. The timing of these fiscal measures correlates with a sharp acceleration in inflation, suggesting a causative impact rather than a mere statistical coincidence.

Average inflation during the three months after these tax changes stood at 3.5%, surpassing the Bank of England’s projections and notably higher than the 2.8% average inflation in the three months prior. This reinforces the view that policy changes contributed directly to price pressures by raising input costs for businesses, which were then passed on to consumers.

Petrol and Core Goods Add Pressure to Prices

While the Chancellor’s fiscal changes raised structural costs, the immediate price surge was largely driven by the rising cost of petrol and diesel. Fuel inflation was the most significant factor behind the Consumer Prices Index increase. This relationship reflects a compound effect where government policy amplified pre-existing energy-related inflationary trends.

Furthermore, core inflation which excludes volatile components like food and energy rose from 3.5% to 3.7%, underscoring broader price rigidity within the economy. This uptick suggests underlying inflation remains stubbornly elevated, not just driven by temporary external shocks but also by persistent domestic factors including wage growth and service sector costs.

Food Prices Reignite, Complicating Monetary Strategy

Food inflation has now increased for the third consecutive month, reaching its highest year-on-year rate since February 2024. Acting chief economist Richard Heys noted that this ongoing rise continues to weigh on household budgets. The correlation between rising employment costs and higher grocery prices indicates that business margins may be adjusting through price transmission to consumers.

Despite these inflationary signals, the financial markets still anticipate that the Bank of England will proceed with a rate cut in August. This paradox is partly explained by recent comments from Governor Andrew Bailey, who stated that rate decisions could be influenced more by signs of labor market weakness than by near-term inflation data alone.

Policy Outlook: Inflation Risks vs. Growth Concerns

While the inflation spike might logically argue against looser monetary policy, broader economic concerns appear to be tempering the Bank’s response. Suren Thiru of ICAEW emphasized that, although June’s inflation figure could prompt more caution, the overall direction is still toward easing rates due to growing fragility in the broader economy.

The Bank of England faces a difficult balance: maintain credibility on inflation control while preventing overtightening in the face of a potential economic slowdown. This tension reflects the central bank’s evolving mandate from inflation targeting toward a dual concern with growth stability and labor market resilience.

Looking ahead, the UK’s inflation status may be briefly challenged by Japan’s June inflation figures, forecast at 3.3%. However, the UK's trajectory remains unique within the G7, shaped significantly by recent domestic policy changes, raising further questions about how fiscal and monetary levers should be coordinated in the months to come.

Source: FT

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Winkelmann

Cryptocurrency

Breaking: $27 Million In SHIB, DOGE, SOL, And Other Tokens Stolen In Major Exchange Hack

According to security firm SlowMist, cryptocurrency exchange BigONE lost a total of $27 million following a third-party attack targeting its hot wallet.

The trading platform, which offers access to more than 180 cryptocurrencies, detected "abnormal movements" involving some of its assets earlier today.

The list of affected cryptocurrencies includes Bitcoin , Ethereum Solana , as well as Dogecoinand Shiba Inu , the two most popular meme coins.

The exchange claims that the attack path has already been "contained" to prevent further losses.

BigONE claims that it will cover all losses following the incident while also activating its internal security reserves.

The exchange has collaborated with SlowMist in order to track down the funds stolen as a result of the attack.

The most notable crypto hacks of 2025

In February, as reported by U.Today, major cryptocurrency exchange Bybit suffered a whopping $1.5 billion hack. The FBI later determined that North Korea was behind the massive security breach.

Phemex’s hot wallets were also drained of a total of $85 million in hot wallets across multiple blockchains in January.

Some other notable crypto hacks of 2025 include Cetus Protocol ($225 million), Infini ($49 million), and Moby ($2.5 million).

The Bybit and Cetus hacks so far account for the vast majority of crypto losses related to hacking incidents this year.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

EU’s Strategic Realignment under Tariff Pressure

As the United States intensifies its tariff stance under the Trump administration, the European Union is repositioning its external economic strategy. The core objective is to bolster resilience by forging new trade alliances with countries that are also subject to U.S. trade barriers. This shift reflects the EU's broader ambition to enhance its strategic autonomy and mitigate risks associated with overreliance on traditional partners.

Teresa Ribera, Vice President of the European Commission and Competition Commissioner, emphasized in an interview with Bloomberg TV that the EU is actively deepening dialogue with Asia-Pacific economies. India stands out as a strategic focal point, with negotiations aimed at finalizing a comprehensive free trade agreement by the end of 2025. This signals a causal relationship between U.S. protectionist policies and the EU’s pivot to alternative trade routes, notably in the Indo-Pacific.

The EU's intention to collaborate with other U.S.-tariff-affected nations such as Canada and Japan further illustrates a coordinated response to rising global protectionism. Rather than acting in isolation, the bloc seeks to form a collective front to reduce dependency on the U.S. market and to circumvent future disruptions stemming from unilateral American tariff hikes.

Trade Tensions with China Remain Unresolved

While expanding its partnerships in South and East Asia, the EU faces structural barriers in its relationship with China. During Ribera’s recent visit to Beijing for climate dialogue, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang reaffirmed China’s commitment to green development. However, trade relations between the two economic powers remain fraught with friction.

Despite Beijing’s stated intention to strengthen ties with Europe, several persistent issues limit progress. Notably, industria l overcapacity in China, restricted market access for European firms, and Beijing’s ambiguous stance on the Ukraine conflict all act as impediments. These are not merely correlated tensions but factors that directly obstruct the formation of deeper economic cooperation.

Moreover, China’s export controls on rare earth magnets, essential for the EU's high-tech industries, have heightened European concerns. Ribera remarked that such strategic materials should not become global chokepoints threatening economic stability. This issue illustrates a causal link between China’s regulatory policies and the EU’s vulnerability in key industrial sectors.

Climate Dialogue Advances Slowly Amid Trust Deficit

Parallel to economic discussions, climate cooperation between the EU and China is evolving cautiously. Although both sides have shown interest in collaborative environmental governance, the EU remains wary of China's pace and transparency in reducing carbon emissions. As the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, China's approach to emissions reduction carries significant weight for global climate targets.

The reluctance of the EU to sign a joint climate declaration during the mid-July talks stems from skepticism about China’s true commitment. EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra stated that Beijing has yet to present a clear and accelerated roadmap for cutting carbon output. The delay in agreement reflects more than diplomatic hesitancy; it reveals a trust gap and the EU’s demand for verifiable action.

Outlook and Strategic Implications

The upcoming EU-China summit will serve as a key juncture to reassess existing disagreements and evaluate the potential for convergence. However, the trajectory of deeper collaboration will hinge on China's willingness to address EU concerns regarding fair trade practices, market openness, and tangible climate efforts.

The EU's ongoing outreach to India and other Asia-Pacific nations underscores its broader diversification strategy, suggesting a deliberate effort to reduce exposure to both U.S. unpredictability and Chinese asymmetries in economic relations. This evolving strategy indicates that while multipolar cooperation remains desirable, it will be carefully calibrated based on tangible reciprocity and shared policy commitments.

Source: France24

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Economic

Cryptocurrency

Big banks take definitive steps into digital currency

In a landmark moment for traditional finance, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup both announced initiatives to participate in the stablecoin market reflecting growing institutional acceptance of blockchain-based payment systems. Speaking on Tuesday, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon revealed that the bank will expand its efforts with JPMorgan’s deposit token (JPMD) while also exploring broader stablecoin applications. Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser went further, stating the bank is “looking at the issuance of a Citi stablecoin,” citing recent regulatory openness as a turning point for bank-led innovation in digital assets.

These announcements come amid ongoing legislative efforts in Congress to establish a formal regulatory framework for stablecoins. A bill that recently passed the Senate outlines oversight responsibilities for large issuers those holding $10 billion or more in assets to be monitored by the Federal Reserve and the OCC. Smaller issuers would fall under state regulators. All participants would be required to maintain full reserves in cash or U.S. Treasuries, undergo independent audits, and make redemption mechanisms transparent to the public.

Despite a procedural setback in the House on Tuesday caused by disagreements among Republicans over how to package related bills the broad momentum suggests eventual passage. If approved, the legislation would provide legal clarity and enable U.S. financial institutions to compete more directly in the digital currency space.

Stablecoins could disrupt traditional payments infrastructure

The strategic embrace of stablecoins reflects mounting pressure on banks to modernize payment offerings amid competition from fintech and retail giants. Amazon and Walmart are reportedly exploring stablecoin applications, and a collaborative stablecoin network among major banks is being discussed behind closed doors. Stablecoins promise near-instant transaction settlement and global dollar accessibility advantages that could eventually challenge entrenched card networks like Visa and Mastercard.

Dimon, long skeptical of cryptocurrencies, now concedes the need to "understand" and "be good at" stablecoins. He remains cautious, questioning their necessity relative to existing payment systems, but acknowledges their competitive relevance.

Utilization remains limited but potential is vast

Fraser highlighted a key limitation in the current market: stablecoins are still predominantly used for crypto-related transactions, not real-world payments. “About 88% of all stablecoin transactions are used to settle crypto trades,” she said, with only 6% for payments. This statistic underscores the early-stage nature of the sector’s adoption curve, but also the scale of opportunity if stablecoins shift toward mainstream financial applications.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan also signaled interest in stablecoins, noting that regulatory uncertainty had previously held the institution back. With clarity on the horizon, the bank has begun internal assessments of potential entry strategies. The changing legal environment and industry momentum suggest that most major banks are preparing for a digital currency future whether through independent initiatives or collective frameworks.

Under the proposed legislation, stablecoins are prohibited from paying interest, differentiating them from money market funds despite similar reserve requirements and redemption guarantees. This distinction reflects concerns over financial stability, particularly the risk of redemption runs during periods of stress. By limiting yield incentives, regulators aim to stabilize the role of stablecoins as payment vehicles rather than speculative instruments.

Wall Street's move into stablecoins marks a major inflection point in the evolution of digital finance. With JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America now actively exploring or planning stablecoin products, and with regulatory frameworks progressing in Congress, stablecoins are poised to become a legitimate, regulated pillar of the U.S. financial system. While usage remains mostly confined to the crypto ecosystem, institutional support, retail interest, and legal clarity could soon reshape how digital dollars are created, exchanged, and trusted.

Source: Reuters

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Olivia Brooks

Economic

Commodity

Silver will extend a rally beyond US$40 (RM169.90) an ounce in the coming months on tightening physical supplies and growing investment demand, according to Citigroup Inc, which reiterated a more cautious stance on gold.

The three-month forecast was raised to US$40 from US$38, while the six-to-12 month outlook was boosted to US$43, analysts including Max Layton said in a note. Gold’s outlook was unchanged, with the bank saying the peak may already have been seen, and holding forecasts for a drop below US$3,000 next year.

“We expect silver availability to tighten on consecutive years of deficit, sticky stockholders requiring higher prices to sell, and robust investment demand,” the analysts said. “The recent silver price rally is not just a catch-up trade to gold but also a reflection of strong silver fundamentals.”

Precious metals have been among the strongest performers in commodities this year, with gold hitting a record and soaring by more than a quarter on central-bank buying and exchange-traded fund inflows, with the US-led trade war spurring haven demand. Silver — valued both as an industrial input, as well as a financial asset — has done even better in terms of year-to-date gains.

Silver will also advance “on the back of Fed cuts”, the Citi analysts said, referring to expected monetary-policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. “We continue to highlight our view that we may have seen gold price highs.”

Spot silver was last just below US$38 an ounce, up by 31% this year. Gold was at about US$3,337 an ounce, 27% higher.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Economic

Trump’s tariffs inject fresh volatility into ECB calculus

As U.S. President Donald Trump threatens to impose a 30% tariff on European Union imports, European policymakers are grappling with a resurgence of trade-related uncertainty. Joachim Nagel, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council and head of Germany’s Bundesbank, emphasized the need for calm and consistency in monetary policy, advocating a “steady hand” amid heightened geopolitical risks.

Speaking to Handelsblatt, Nagel stated that the impact of trade conflict and geopolitical tension on inflation remains "extremely uncertain" a comment that underscores how external shocks are increasingly intruding on the ECB's internal deliberations.

ECB expected to hold rates despite external noise

Despite these emerging headwinds, the ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its next policy meeting. Following the June meeting, the central bank signaled a pause in its monetary easing campaign, citing fragile but improving inflation dynamics across the euro area.

Five ECB policymakers told Reuters that while Trump’s tariff threat is disruptive and adds complexity to forecasting inflation, it is unlikely to reverse the central bank’s current strategy in the short term. The decision to stay on hold reflects the ECB’s desire to assess the lasting effects of past rate cuts and evaluate the actual transmission of trade shocks before making further moves.

Trade uncertainty creates asymmetric inflation risks

The core dilemma for ECB officials lies in how tariffs might influence inflation. On one hand, tariffs can directly raise prices of imported goods, especially in sectors heavily reliant on U.S. inputs or global supply chains. On the other hand, tariffs can also depress overall demand by reducing trade volumes, slowing growth, and weakening consumer sentiment thus exerting deflationary pressure.

This duality creates a policy blind spot: inflation may rise or fall, depending on how economic agents businesses and consumers respond. Nagel’s call for steady policy reflects this recognition, urging the ECB to avoid reacting prematurely to uncertain data.

Strategic patience in the face of external shocks

Nagel’s comments align with a broader ECB strategy of exercising patience. The ECB prefers to wait for clearer signals before adjusting policy, particularly at a time when the eurozone is navigating a fragile recovery from pandemic-era disruptions and a mixed inflation outlook.

Moreover, the central bank is mindful of avoiding the perception that it is reacting to political developments particularly from the United States. Maintaining institutional independence is critical for the ECB’s credibility, and sudden shifts in policy based on external political moves could be seen as compromising that stance.

With inflationary effects from Trump’s tariff threats still unclear, ECB officials are signaling strategic restraint. Joachim Nagel’s remarks reinforce the ECB’s intention to hold interest rates steady while monitoring how trade tensions evolve. In a complex environment shaped by both economic fundamentals and geopolitical maneuvering, the ECB appears committed to gradualism, aiming to preserve stability without overreacting to short-term volatility.