US import volumes are projected to slow through the year-end holidays and into 2026, as tariff uncertainty weighs on cargo owners and the outlook for consumer spending remains clouded, new data show.

According to Descartes Systems Group's latest Global Shipping Report, the volume of US container imports slipped 0.1% last month compared with September, marking only the second October in the past decade to show a month-over-month decline and "a clear sign of importer caution."

The October total of 2.31 million 20-foot equivalent container units, or TEUs, was 7.5% lower the year-earlier level and left the year-to-date tally just 0.9% higher than the total during the first 10 months of 2024. Separate figures from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates predict year-on-year declines in inbound container volumes of 14.4% for November and 17.9% in December.

US importers are facing "persistent geopolitical friction and regulatory volatility, which drive higher levels of supply chain uncertainty and complexity as policies shift and evolve quickly," Jackson Wood, director of industry strategy at Descartes, said in the report released Monday.

President Donald Trump's return to the White House in January kicked off a rollercoaster year for manufacturers, retailers and other US industries dependent on goods from abroad. They're mostly absorbing his higher import taxes, while small businesses in particular are struggling to manage supply networks without a clear picture of their landed costs.

The future of Trump's tariff reach was thrown into fresh doubt last week as the Supreme Court sounded skeptical about the constitutionality of his broad use of import taxes.

Starting Monday, the US' 20% fentanyl tariff on imports from China is reduced to 10%, and a significant increase in "reciprocal" duties on Chinese goods set to take effect is paused for a third time, this time for a year. The 10% duty Trump imposed using emergency powers remains in place while it's under the high court's review.

Tariff mitigation efforts by retailers earlier in the year may have spared Americans major disruptions like shortages and price spikes during the holiday shopping season, according to the National Retail Federation.

'Well-stocked' shelves

"Store shelves are well-stocked and the effect on prices has been minimized, largely thanks to retailers taking steps like front-loading imports during times of low or delayed tariff increases or absorbing the costs themselves," NRF vice-president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement Friday.

The NRF and Hackett Associates' port-tracking data project a soft finish to the year. If realised, the nearly 18% plunge forecast for December would be the slowest month since March 2023.

The NRF and Hackett Associates' Global Port Tracker forecasts 2025 to close at container volumes totaling 24.9 million TEUs, down 2.3% from last year's total. The first quarter of 2026 is likely to see weak year-on-year comparisons, too, partly because shipments were pulled forward to avoid tariffs.

"These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain," Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. "Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026."

According to an analysis published last week by Vizion, a tech company that provides supply-chain visibility, the "new normal" in freight brings subdued demand.

"For the first time since March 2023, monthly import volumes are falling below the two million TEU threshold, signalling what freight industry experts now characterise as a 'goods recession,'" Vizion said in a blog post. "This contraction represents a structural shift rather than temporary volatility."

Monthly trade data last week confirmed that the US market is in decline for Chinese manufacturers.

China's total shipments abroad fell for the first time in eight months, dropping 1.1% from a year earlier, according to official data released Friday. Shipments to all nations except the US rose 3.1%, not enough to compensate for the more than 25% decline to America.

AP Moller-Maersk A/S CEO Vincent Clerc said it's hard for the world's number two container carrier to decipher whether the recent soft demand in North America was an inventory correction after the pulling-forward of orders earlier this year, or whether it's reflecting fundamentally weak demand.

Still, he said there are signs of resilience in an outlook otherwise dimmed by trade policy unknowns.

"As far as the next six months are concerned, we expect still quite a resilient demand into North America with goods starting now to pick up pace compared to what we have seen in the last couple of quarters," Clerc told Bloomberg Television on Thursday.

"One of the core risks that we see is the uncertainty that there is," he said, noting that a recent US-China truce offers reprieves on tariffs and ship fees that are only temporary. "The long-term playing field is still unclear."

Long Beach's view

At the Port of Long Beach in Southern California, CEO Mario Cordero said he expects to close 2025 near the facility's record volume set last year of 9.6 million 20-foot equivalent container units, or TEUs, even with a slowdown over the next two months.

"We're looking forward to a moderate increase in cargo in 2026," Cordero told reporters Friday, though he said much depends on the economy, including how much and when tariffs filter through to consumer prices, and on the status of the US-China trade war.

For example, soybean exports leaving the Port of Long Beach dropped 93% in the first nine months of 2025 compared with the year before, according to the port, the nation's second-busiest. That's because China refused to purchase the commodity from US farmers in retaliation for Trump's trade war. China has since agreed to restart soybean purchases.

Cordero said goods categories like winter clothing, toys and furniture, are on the decline, while the boom in artificial intelligence is spurring an increase in electronics and other products related to data centers.

Source: Theedgemarkets

A surging Hong Kong market has led to a boom in structured products linked to the city's equities, so much so that it's overtaken issuance from Japan and Korea, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Structured products tied to the biggest single stocks listed in Hong Kong, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd., have emerged as the "new anchor" of regional volatility supply, "significantly" outpacing index-linked issuance this year, strategists including Tony Lee wrote in a note dated Friday.

In 2025, the instruments supplied around $11 million of vega — sensitivity to changes in the price of the underlying asset — per month, almost triple the level from 2024.

China's policy pivot last year revived investors' interest, with elevated volatility at the single-stock level and the artificial intelligence frenzy together leading to more demand for accumulation and equity-linked yield products, according to the note. Meanwhile, regulatory tightening and stricter investor protection standards in Japan and Korea helped curtail issuance in those markets.

"Volatility supply in Asia has shifted toward Hong Kong," the strategists wrote, noting that Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi Corp. and BYD Co. are the core underlying names for structured products issuance. "Dealers' vega positioning across these stocks currently sits near peak exposure levels, suggesting large rallies or declines in spot prices could influence volatility flows."

JPMorgan also noted that the growth in single-stock issuance has affected regional volatility dynamics, primarily boosting dispersion trades, where investors are long single-stock volatility and short index volatility.

The strategists expect the momentum to continue in 2026, with the top stocks offering liquidity depth, investor familiarity and exposure to key investment themes. Newer listings and recent index additions such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. and Pop Mart International Group Ltd. may "modestly broaden the base," the strategists said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) has started the week on a positive note amid growing expectations that the longest government shutdown in US history may soon come to an end.

According to Reuters, a bill has been introduced in the Senate proposing amendments to extend government funding until 30 January. The news acted as a bullish catalyst for equity markets. Still, the question remains – is the risk truly behind us?

Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100

Analysing the hourly chart of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) on 4 November, we:

→ Drew an ascending channel;

→ Noted signs of momentum exhaustion, as mentioned in our previous headline.

Since then, price action has evolved as follows:

→ The lower boundary of the channel provided support (1), prompting a brief rebound;

→ The 25,770 level acted as resistance (2) on two occasions, strengthening the bears' confidence to push for a downside breakout — which ultimately succeeded.

The index's subsequent movements have now more clearly outlined the formation of a descending channel (shown in red).

From the demand-side perspective:

→ After a false bearish breakout below 24,680 (showing characteristics of a Liquidity Grab pattern), the market staged an aggressive rally from point B;

→ Today's session opened with a bullish gap, and the price has moved above the red median line.

From the supply-side perspective:

→ The 25,500 level, where sellers gained control during the previous channel breakout, may now act as resistance;

→ If the A→B move is viewed as an impulse, today's rally appears to be a corrective rebound consistent with Fibonacci proportions — suggesting that downward momentum could resume within the red channel.

Source: FXOpen

Lending Revival Signals Policy Softening, Not Deregulation

From Crackdown to Coordination: A Shift in Strategy

Demand Surges, But Defaults Erode Stability

Firms Weigh Risk and Opportunity

Strategic Growth Amid Fragile Fundamentals

Source: Reuters

On Monday, gold advanced by more than 1% to 4,050 USD per ounce, reaching a fresh two-week high. The rally was fuelled by mounting concerns over the health of the US economy.

A softening US dollar provided further support for the precious metal, enhancing the affordability of dollar-denominated assets for international buyers.

Data released on Friday revealed that the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index had fallen to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years. This decline is largely attributed to the ongoing US government shutdown, which has now become the longest in the nation's history. Investors are closely monitoring the situation as the US Senate moves closer to approving a Democratic-backed proposal to reopen the government.

Amid the economic uncertainty, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move remain divided. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is currently priced at approximately 67%, unchanged from the end of last week.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is forming a consolidation range around 3,988 USD. A breakout to the upside is expected to initiate a growth wave towards 4,075 USD, which may then be followed by a decline to 4,020 USD (testing the level from below). A subsequent breakdown from this range could extend the correction towards 3,660 USD, where the downward move is anticipated to conclude. This would potentially set the stage for a new upward wave targeting 4,400 USD. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line above zero and pointing upward, suggesting continued near-term bullish momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market is also consolidating around 3,988 USD. An upward breakout is likely to propel prices towards 4,075 USD, after which a decline to at least 4,020 USD is expected. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line is positioned above 80 and appears poised to reverse downward towards 20, indicating potential for a near-term pullback.

Conclusion

Gold is trading at a two-week high, supported by economic concerns and a weaker US dollar. While the near-term technical structure suggests potential for further gains towards 4,075 USD, a subsequent correction towards 4,020 USD is anticipated. The broader outlook remains constructive, with a deeper corrective move towards 3,660 USD expected to present a buying opportunity ahead of a potential resumption of the broader uptrend.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

Gold Strengthens on Economic Weakness and Dovish Fed Expectations

Dovish Signals Amplified by Shutdown-Induced Data Vacuum

Continued Central Bank Buying Bolsters Market Confidence

Shutdown Resolution Shifts Focus to Fed Policy

Weak Data and Policy Uncertainty Keep Gold in Rally Mode

Source: Bloomberg