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LONDON (Reuters) - Gold stocks in Comex warehouses are on track to hit new records over the coming days due to the risk of import tariffs curtailing shipments to the United States from other countries, analysts and traders say.

Latest data from Comex, part of CME Group, shows gold stored in its warehouses in the United States at an all-time high of 43.3 million troy ounces worth $135 billion at current prices compared with 17.1 million in November when Donald Trump was elected U.S. President.

Spot gold prices surged past $3,100 per ounce to a fresh record high on Monday. Bullion is up 19% so far this year after rising 27% in 2024. [GOL/]

Flows may have slowed recently, but sources say gold is still being flown to the U.S. as Trump has promised to unveil a massive tariff plan on Wednesday, which he has dubbed "Liberation Day."

"There is still material going to the U.S. almost daily," said a source from a Swiss refinery. Switzerland is the world's biggest bullion refining and transit hub.

Between December and March, 25.4 million ounces of gold worth $79 billion were delivered to Comex as the risk of U.S. import tariffs widened the premium between Comex futures and London spot prices.

As gold travels quickly by airplanes, these flows are the most striking example of the pricing and physical dislocation caused in the market by the uncertainty.

Comex gold stocks are now equal to five years of U.S. total gold consumption, estimated by BNP Paribas at 8.8 million ounces a year.

"I would be surprised if anyone started exporting gold out of the U.S. any time soon," Adrian Ash, head of research at London-based BullionVault.

If gold is excluded from U.S. import tariffs, the market could see a reversal, perhaps muted, of the trend.

"If that is confirmed, I see no reason why some of those bars should not head back to London, which remains the main trading hub for physical gold," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

In London, the world's largest over-the-counter gold trading hub, the shock of massive supplies to New York has been absorbed and the liquidity improved as the market borrowed from central banks, storing their bullion at the Bank of England's (BoE) vaults.

The waiting time to load gold out of the BoE vaults has narrowed to 2-3 weeks from 4-6 weeks in January, according to three sources familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity to reveal operations.

BoE declined to comment.

The London Bullion Market Association reported 8,477 metric tons as of the end of February - that is still six times more gold stored in the London vaults than there is in Comex gold stocks. The price discovery process remains in London, according to analysts.

Source: Yahoo Finance

At 12:58 ET (17:58 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.5%, and the NASDAQ Composite dropped 1.4%.

The major indices are on pace to end the month sharply lower, weighed by mounting trade and economic concerns.

Trump tariff jitters grow as ‘liberation day’ approaches

President Trump is set to unveil several more trade tariffs on April 2, a date he has repeatedly touted as “liberation day.”

A WSJ report over the weekend said Trump will consider higher tariffs against a broader range of countries, as he embarks on a trade agenda aimed at correcting alleged trade imbalances against the U.S.

The U.S. president rattled markets last week by imposing a 25% tariff on all non-American cars. The tariff will take effect from April 2, where Trump could also announce tariffs against other sectors such as commodities, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

Markets fear that Trump’s tariffs, which will be borne by U.S. importers, will underpin inflation and compromise U.S. economic growth in the coming months.

Goldman Sachs sees a 35% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, and also expects inflation to rise further above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in 2025.

Jobs report looms large

This week sees an abundance of major economic releases, including the all-important jobs report for March.

The U.S. economy is tipped to have added 139,000 roles in March, down from 151,000 in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is seen equaling February’s mark of 4.1%.

Prior to the release of the nonfarm payrolls figures on Friday, measures of private hiring and job openings will also be published, along with separate numbers tracking manufacturing activity.

Wall Street indexes fell sharply on Friday after PCE price index inflation- the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge- read higher than expected for February.

The reading gives the Fed more impetus to keep interest rates steady for longer, especially in the face of heightened uncertainty over the economy.

Tesla to reveal Q1 deliveries

In the corporate sector, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is expected to unveil first-quarter deliveries data this week, with analysts and investors bracing for a potential drop in the proxy for the electric vehicle maker’s sales.

The numbers, which are due out on April 2, are projected to show a decline in the figure versus the year-ago period, as the company contends with a backlash to CEO Elon Musk’s political activities that have led to protests at showrooms.

Coreweave drops; Mr. Cooper Group jumps on deal activity;

CoreWeave Inc (NASDAQ:CRWV) fell more than 5% just days after making its public debut. The Nvidia-backed company opened trading its below IPO price on Friday.

Mr. Cooper Group Inc (NASDAQ:COOP) shrugged off the broader market malaise, rising more than 12% after the mortgage services provider agreed to be aquired by Rocket Companies in a $9.4B deal.

Source: Investing

“The odds are on the side of it getting filled quite soon.”

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“Let's see if it plays out,” he told X followers.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: HTL-NL/X

“What if price action is red heading into those Death Crosses with the actual Crosses marking the bottom like we've seen many times before?” Barchart queried.

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

“It might take a bit more time based on previous cases. It's also quite common seeing multiple and consecutives retests of this bull market support.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 50-day, 50-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“We believe April 2nd will be the biggest escalation of the trade war to date. Markets are in for a wild week.”

US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool continue to favor the Fed’s June meeting as the date of the next rate cut.

Fed target rate probabilities for June 18 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Data from CoinGlass shows BTC/USD down 12.7% in Q1 at the time of writing, making it the worst first quarter of the year since 2018.

BTC/USD quarterly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

“This cycle continues to be the least volatile of all,” it acknowledged in February.

Bitcoin bull market drawdowns. Source: Glassnode

On a monthly basis, the picture remains far from the most bearish BTC price scenarios — 2.7% losses since March 1, making for a fairly average third month of the year.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

“With the MVRV now converging toward its long-term historical average, it appears the market has exited the overheated zone. However, no definitive bottom signal has emerged yet.”

Bitcoin MVRV momentum chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, its resistance to the downside in the face of falling prices leads Sunmoon to suspect a “possible trend reversal.”

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium. Source: CryptoQuant

Source: Cointelegraph

Source: Theguardian

Tankmaker Rheinmetall was briefly more expensive than Ferrari this month, trading at 44 times its expected earnings, highlighting investor willingness to pay a premium for exposure to this long-term trend.

Line chart showing 12-month forward PE of Rheinmetall and Ferrari

Eutelsat has surged 260% this month, driven by suggestions the Franco-British satellite operator could replace Elon Musk's Starlink in providing internet access to Ukraine.

Eutelsat shares surged over 100% on March 5 on reports the Franco-British satellite operator could replace Elon Musk's Starlink in providing internet access to Ukraine.

A 500 billion euro infrastructure fund announced by Berlin is expected to boost the gross domestic product of Germany over the next decade.

Percentage move in bank shares since the start of 2025.

Equity markets in Spain and Italy have performed better than German and French peers so far this year.

Source: Reuters

Source: Euronews