US January PPI: Soars Beyond Expectations, but Rate Cut Expectations Heat Up

Data Interpretation

Summary:

The US January PPI was higher than market expectations. However, the decline in prices of some sub-items related to the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) alleviated market concerns about inflation. After the release of the PPI data, US Treasury yields declined, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 33 basis points this year. Although inflation data still shows resilience, the moderate growth of core indicators reduces the possibility of further interest rate hikes.

On February 13 local time, the US Department of Labor released the January PPI report:

The U.S. PPI rose 3.5 percent year-on-year, compared with an expected growth of 3.2 percent and the previous reading was 3.5 percent (adjusted).

The U.S. PPI rose 0.4 percent month-on-month, compared with an expected growth of 0.3 percent and the previous reading was 0.5 percent (adjusted).

Core PPI rose 3.6 percent year-on-year, compared with a forecast of 3.3 percent and the previous reading was 3.7 percent (adjusted).

Core PPI rose 0.3 percent month-on-month, in line with the forecast of 0.3 percent and the previous reading was 0.4 percent (adjusted).

Specifically, although the overall PPI data was higher than expected, some sub-item indicators related to PCE declined. Margins for fuels and lubricants retailing fell 9.8 percent. Portfolio management fees rose 0.4 percent, while airline fare prices dropped 0.3 percent.

Health care dropped on January in a monthly basis. The price of physician care decreased by 0.5 percent, the price of hospital inpatient care decreased by 0.3 percent, and the price of hospital outpatient care decreased by 0.4 percent. This item has a weight of nearly 20 percent in the core PCE; another important item in the core PCE - the service cost of portfolio management, although rising for the second consecutive month, the increase also narrowed to 0.4 percent.

This may mean that US inflation may not be as "strong" as the inflation data indicates. Moreover, there will still be sufficient downward pressure on housing prices and wages, which will continue to exert downward pressure on inflation.

The increase in PPI mainly comes from goods and services. Wholesale trade rose 0.6 percent after increasing 0.5 percent in December. More than half of the increase was due to a 1.7 percent rise in energy commodity prices. Amid the outbreak of avian influenza, food prices soared 1.1 percent, and egg prices skyrocketed 44.0 percent. Food and energy prices tend to be volatile and are vulnerable to short-term or one-time events such as bad weather, diseases, wars, and supply chain disruptions. Excluding food and energy, commodity prices rose slightly for the second consecutive month, up 0.1 percent.

Services increased 0.3 percent after rising 0.5 percent in December. Over one-third of the January rise in the index for final demand services can be traced to prices for traveler accommodation services, which advanced 5.7 percent.

The indexes for automobile retailing (partial); truck transportation of freight; food and alcohol retailing; apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing; and bundled wired telecommunications access services also moved higher.

This data confirms again that price pressures faced by the US had already risen significantly before the Trump administration implemented tariffs.

In general, the latest PPI data indicates that there is some upward pressure on US producer prices. However, the decline in some key sub-item indicators provides some positive signals for future inflation trends. After the release of the PPI data, both the US stock market and bond market rose. The yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond fell nearly 10 basis points to approximately 4.53 percent. Although the overall PPI data was higher than expected, the decline in some sub-item indicators alleviated market concerns about inflation. The moderate growth of core indicators met the expectations of the Federal Reserve and reduced the possibility of further interest rate hikes.

However, the tariff policies promoted by the Trump administration may exacerbate inflationary pressures. Tariffs may drive up commodity prices, thereby influencing the trends of the CPI and PCE.

According to calculations by LSEG, after the release of the PPI data, the latest pricing in the US interest rate futures market indicates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 33 basis points this year, higher than the 27 basis points on Wednesday. The next interest rate cut is expected to take place in October or December.

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Alex

Economic

Oil prices post back-to-back losses on prospect of Russia-Ukraine peace talks

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Source：Dow Jones Newswires

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Alex

Economic

A lease sign is seen in this photo taken from a commercial district in Seoul, Jan. 8. The government report said the Korean economy is under growing downward pressure, Feb. 14.

The Korean economy faces "increasing downward pressure" due to heightened uncertainties both domestically and globally, leading to weakened economic sentiment amid a slowdown in domestic demand recovery and employment, the finance ministry said Friday.

In its monthly economic report, the Green Book, the Ministry of Economy and Finance cited downward pressure for the third consecutive month, attributing it to domestic political uncertainties and an escalating global trade war fueled by U.S. tariff plans.

"The global economy continues to face geopolitical risks, with growing trade uncertainty due to the implementation of major tariff measures," the report said. Since taking office last month, U.S. President Donald Trump has escalated tariffs on key trading partners.

The latest assessment builds on the December report, where the ministry first highlighted downward pressure following President Yoon Suk Yeol's brief declaration of martial law Dec. 3.

In November, the ministry had already softened its language, shifting its outlook from "recovery" to "gradual recovery."

The government plans to mobilize all available resources to swiftly implement measures aimed at job creation, financial support for low-income households and assistance for small businesses, the report said.

Additionally, the government has vowed to actively respond to trade uncertainties, including supporting domestic companies affected by the latest U.S. tariff plan, it noted.

Korea added 135,000 jobs in January, marking a turnaround from an on-year decline in the previous month, according to the report.

Consumer prices, a key gauge of inflation, grew 2.2 percent from a year earlier in January, marking the largest on-year increase since July, largely due to a weak local currency that pushed up import prices.

In December, Korea's industrial output rose 2.3 percent from the previous month on strong demand for semiconductors and automobiles. The on-month gain followed three consecutive months of decline.

Facility investment rose 9.9 percent from the previous month in December, continuing an overall upward trend.

Source: Koreatimes

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Alex

Economic

China’s pain threshold for tariffs is “a lot lower” than the U.S.’, according to Stephen Moore, a former economic advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump.

Speaking at a Delivering Alpha event in Dubai, Moore said that China was Trump’s main target regarding tariffs.

He described the foreign economic policy as a “negotiating tool” from the Trump playbook and said it represents a “battle for global economic dominance and supremacy.”

Moore, who waivered over labeling the current dispute a trade war, said it’s more likely to evolve into a “trade skirmish.”

China “can’t win” the game of escalating tariffs as the country has an economy that is “not doing all that well,” he added.

“China is going to feel the effects of these tariffs,” he told CNBC’s Dan Murphy. “Trade wars are not good for either country. But their pain threshold is a lot lower than ours is.”

Moore served as a senior economic advisor during Trump’s first election campaign in 2016 and is currently a visiting senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation — an influential right-wing think tank in Washington and the engine behind Project 2025 which, among its 900-page mandate, calls for sweeping changes to the federal government.

Europe must ‘make a choice’

Moore also lambasted Europe’s position on China, claiming that “Europeans and the Brits and the Australians will have to make a choice” between the U.S. and China.

“I hope that the Europeans understand that this is about the survival of the planet, that we don’t allow China to take over Asia,” he said. Beijing and the European Union are also involved in a trade spat over tariffs on electric vehicles, however.

Economists have shared grim warnings over the trade escalating tensions, with Capital Economics’ Paul Ashworth saying Trump’s initial tariff announcement was “just the first strike in what could become a very destructive global trade war.”

Moore also backed the U.S. President’s motivations for potential tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China in what the administration has described as a bid to clamp down on imports of fentanyl and heroin drugs.

“If Trump can actually get Canada [and] Mexico to help keep these lethal drugs out of the U.S., it’s worth… paying more for the goods that come in from those countries,” he said.

China has pushed back on Trump’s comments about fentanyl, describing it as a “domestic issue,” while Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum rebutted Trump’s claim of Mexico’s alleged alliances with criminal cartels as “slander.”

Trump said he would suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico as the countries agreed to work to prevent the trafficking of fentanyl into the U.S., although his tariffs on China have gone ahead. China has retaliated with its own tariffs on certain imports from the U.S.

Trump has since said he will introduce duties on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S.

Source：CNBC

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Owen Li

Economic

India and the U.S. will work to more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at a joint press conference with U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday.

Speaking at the conclusion of the two leaders’ meeting in Washington, Modi also said that “Our teams will work on concluding very soon, a mutually beneficial trade agreement.”

Trump acknowledged India’s recent move to reduce tariffs on select imports and said he would begin talks on disparities on trade and hoped to reach an agreement.

Modi said India and the U.S. would also work together on developing artificial intelligence and semiconductors while focusing on establishing strong supply chains for strategic minerals.

The remarks came hours after Trump signed a presidential memorandum outlining his plan to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on foreign nations, including India.

The U.S. would simply charge the same tariff rates that India charges, Trump said, while the trade deficit with India could be addressed with the sale of oil and gas.

India imposes a 17% simple average tariff on countries with the most-favored-nation status, compared with the U.S. that levies 3.3%. The U.S. enjoys MFN status with most major economies.

U.S. total goods trade with India is estimated at $129 billion in 2024, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. India’s surplus with the U.S., its second-largest trading partner, reached $45.7 billion last year.

The lofty target of $500 billion in trade could be achievable, Raghuram Rajan, professor of finance at University of Chicago Booth School of Business and former Reserve Bank of India governor, told CNBC “Squawk Box Asia.”

India, the world’s biggest defense equipment importer, could offer to shift its imports from Russia toward the U.S. and increase its purchases of liquified natural gas from American manufacturers, Rajan added.

“We are, right now, a reciprocal nation... We’re going to have whatever India charges, we’re charging them. Whatever another country charges, we’re charging them. So it’s called reciprocal, which I think is a very fair way,” the U.S. president said at the press briefing.

The president said that the reciprocal tariffs will not take effect immediately as his administration works on determining the appropriate tariff levels for each affected country.

Trump has already slapped tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico as well as global tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico are currently on pause after both countries pledged to crack down on illegal drug trafficking at their respective borders with the U.S.

Despite the encouraging tones from the Wednesday summit, signs of friction remain in the U.S.-India relation, said Daniel Balazs, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, such as the illegal immigration issue and India’s close ties with Russia. “The latter, in particular, is unlikely to go away anytime soon and will probably remain a sore point between the two sides,” he said.

Source：CNBC

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. Trump is preparing to revise the funding conditions of the U.S. CHIPS Act

2. Ukraine increases natural gas imports from Hungary and Slovakia.

3. Trump: Ukraine will participate in all peace negotiations with Russia

4. European stock markets reached record highs, buoyed by expectations surrounding US-Russia negotiations and positive corporate earnings reports

5. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased, indicating that the job market remained stable

6. Due to sanctions and drone attacks, Russia may be compelled to reduce its oil production

7. Although the PPI exceeded expectations, it has heightened the anticipation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve

[News Details]

Trump is preparing to revise the funding conditions of the U.S. CHIPS Act

According to sources, the White House is seeking to renegotiate the funding provisions within the CHIPS and Science Act, suggesting a delay in the disbursement of certain semiconductor grants. The new administration is reviewing projects that received funding under the 2022 legislation, which aims to boost domestic semiconductor production in the U.S. through US$39 billion in subsidies. Washington plans to renegotiate some agreements after assessing and adjusting the current requirements.

Ukraine increases natural gas imports from Hungary and Slovakia

Due to ongoing cold weather and other factors, Ukraine's natural gas reserves are rapidly depleting, leading the country to import gas primarily from EU member states, notably Hungary and Slovakia. Data from Ukraine's gas pipeline operator indicates that gas imports on the 13th increased by 10% compared to the previous trading day, reaching ten times the import levels seen in early February. On that day, Ukraine imported 9.8 million cubic meters from Hungary, 11.6 million cubic meters from Slovakia, and 3.5 million cubic meters from Poland. Previously, Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko stated that the Ukraine needs to import over 1 billion cubic meters of gas during the current heating season. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha‎ mentioned that Ukraine can purchase liquefied natural gas from the U.S.

Trump: Ukraine will participate in all peace negotiations with Russia

On February 13, local time, U.S. President Trump stated that Ukraine will engage in all peace negotiations alongside Russia. Earlier that day, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy emphasized that he would not accept any bilateral peace talks that exclude Ukraine, asserting that European partners should also be present at the negotiation table. Russian President's spokesperson Peskov also remarked earlier on the same day that Russia views the U.S. as the primary adversary in negotiations concerning Ukraine. Peskov indicated that Ukraine will certainly be involved in some capacity in the peace talks, but there will be a separate bilateral negotiation mechanism between the U.S. and Russia.

European stock markets reached record highs, buoyed by expectations surrounding US-Russia negotiations and positive corporate earnings reports

The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up 1.09%, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains. Market sentiment was lifted following a call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which both leaders agreed to initiate discussions aimed at resolving the Ukraine conflict. However, after Trump announced on Truth Social that he would reveal reciprocal tariffs, the market briefly retraced its gains. Notable individual stock performances included Nestlé, which rose 6.2% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue growth that exceeded expectations, and Siemens, whose shares climbed 7.3% due to strong demand for its electrification products. Automotive manufacturers outperformed, following reports that House Speaker Mike Johnson believes Trump is considering tariff exemptions that may include the automotive and pharmaceutical sectors. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 index lagged among major European indices, pressured by falling oil prices impacting energy stocks and a strengthening pound affecting exporters.

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased, indicating that the job market remained stable

Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased, indicating that the job market remained stable at the beginning of February. The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that for the week ending February 8, seasonally adjusted initial claims fell by 7,000 to 213,000. So far this year, the number of individuals applying for unemployment benefits has been on a downward trend, consistent with historically low unemployment rates. This trend supports economic expansion and allows the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts while assessing the impact of the Trump administration's policies. Economists believe that Trump's push for large-scale deportations of undocumented immigrants, the imposition of import tariffs, and tax cuts will lead to inflation. However, despite the low layoff rates, job opportunities for the unemployed are not as plentiful as they were about a year ago, as businesses have adopted a wait-and-see approach.

Due to sanctions and drone attacks, Russia may be compelled to reduce its oil production

In the coming months, Russia could face pressure to cut output as U.S. sanctions hinder the movement of Russian tankers to Asia, while drone strikes from Ukraine disrupt the operations of Russian refineries. According to three oil company executives regarding the latest sanctions' impact, the reality is clear: Russia will have no choice but to slow down oil production. They noted that the surplus of crude oil in Russia is becoming increasingly severe due to declining exports and reduced refining capacity, which can only be addressed through production cuts. With limited storage capacity, several facilities have recently been targeted by Ukrainian drone strikes. Executives indicated that any production cuts may start on a small scale, with Russia's daily output potentially dropping below 9 million barrels in the coming months; however, if tanker shortages and refining disruptions persist, the pace of reductions may accelerate.

Although the PPI exceeded expectations, it has heightened the anticipation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve

In January, the U.S. PPI rose by 3.5% YoY, marking the largest increase since February 2023 and significantly surpassing the market expectation of 3.2%. On a MoM basis, it increased by 0.4%, also above the anticipated 0.3%. Additionally, the core PPI saw a MoM rise of 0.3% and a YoY increase of 3.6%, both exceeding forecasts.

This data further confirms that the inflationary pressures in the U.S. were already intensifying prior to the implementation of tariffs by the Trump administration. However, some subcomponents within the data have shown a decline, particularly those that hold substantial weight in the PCE composition.

For instance, healthcare prices experienced a month-over-month decrease in January, with this category accounting for nearly 20% of the core PCE. Another significant component - service costs for portfolio management - although rising for the second consecutive month, saw its growth rate narrow to 0.4%. This may suggest that the upcoming PCE report, set to be released later this month, might not reflect the same level of intensity as indicated by the CPI.

Additionally, the components of the CPI exhibit a certain degree of seasonality - prices tend to be higher at the beginning of the year but are expected to moderate in the latter half. Currently, prices for items such as auto insurance, housing, and eggs are rising, but these costs are anticipated to ease.

This may suggest that U.S. inflation is not as "robust" as the inflation data indicates. Furthermore, there will be sufficient downward pressure from housing prices and wages, which will continue to exert downward pressure on inflation.

According to calculations by LSEG, following the release of the PPI data, the latest pricing in the U.S. interest rate futures market indicates that the Fed is expected to cut rates by 33 basis points this year, an increase from the 27 basis points projected on Wednesday. The next rate cut is anticipated to occur in October or December.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. Retail Sales Monthly Rate for January

UTC+8 22:15 U.S. Industrial Production Monthly Rate for January

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Cohen

Economic

WASHINGTON (Fed 13): The U.S. government began firing hundreds of people at multiple agencies on Thursday as President Donald Trump and Elon Musk accelerate their purge of America's federal bureaucracy, union sources and employees familiar with the moves told Reuters.

Termination emails have been sent in the past 48 hours to government workers, mostly recently hired employees still on probation, at the Department of Education, the Small Business Administration, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the General Services Administration, which manages many federal buildings.

It was not immediately clear how many domestic federal workers stood to lose their jobs in the first wave of layoffs. According to government data, about 280,000 civilian government workers were hired less than two years ago with most still on probation, which makes them easier to fire.

All probationary staff at the Office of Personnel Management, the human resources arm for the U.S. government, were fired in a group call on Thursday and told to leave the agency's headquarters in Washington, two sources said.

OPM officials also met with other government agencies on Thursday and advised them to lay off their probationary employees, with some exceptions, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Even as the firings commenced, a group of 14 states filed a federal lawsuit in Washington alleging that Trump appointed Musk illegally, giving him "unchecked legal authority" without authorization from the U.S. Congress.

Most civil service employees can be fired legally only for bad performance or misconduct, and they have a host of due process and appeal rights if they are let go arbitrarily. The probationary employees targeted in Thursday's wave have fewer legal protections.

Trump and Tesla CEO Musk's overhaul of the federal government appeared to be widening as Musk aides arrived for the first time at the federal tax-collecting agency, the Internal Revenue Service, and U.S. embassies were told to prepare for staff cuts.

Trump has defended the effort, saying the federal government is too bloated and that too much money is lost to waste and fraud. The federal government has some $36 trillion in debt and ran a $1.8 trillion deficit last year, and there is bipartisan agreement on the need for government reform. But critics have questioned the blunt force approach of Musk, who has amassed extraordinary influence in Trump's presidency.

'YOU ARE NOT FIT'

Thursday's moves fulfill Trump's vow to reduce the size of the federal government and root out the "deep state," a reference to bureaucrats he views as not sufficiently loyal to him.

"The Agency finds that you are not fit for continued employment because your ability, knowledge and skills do not fit the current needs, and your performance has not been adequate to justify further employment with the Agency," letters sent to at least 45 probationers at the SBA stated.

Reuters has seen a copy of the termination letter.

Letters to at least 160 recent hires at the Department of Education, also seen by Reuters, told them that their continued employment "would not be in the public interest."

Trump, a Republican serving his second term, on Wednesday reiterated his desire to close the Department of Education.

About 100 probationary employees received termination letters on Wednesday at the GSA, according to two people familiar with the firings.

One GSA employee, who said he had one month left until his probation period ended and had been receiving excellent performance reviews, was told this week he will be fired on Friday.

"Up until two weeks ago, this was an absolute dream job. Now it's become an absolute nightmare because of what is going on. I have small children and a mortgage to pay," the worker told Reuters.

Musk's cost-cutting Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but a spokesperson for OPM said the firings were in line with new government policy.

"The Trump administration is encouraging agencies to use the probationary period as it was intended: as a continuation of the job application process, not an entitlement for permanent employment," the spokesperson said.

About 75,000 workers have signed up for the buyout, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. That is equal to 3% of the civilian workforce.

The deadline to take the offer expired on Wednesday evening. Asked why workers were not given extra time to consider the buyout so more would take it, Leavitt said, "I'm not so sure that we didn't hit the numbers we wanted."

MASSIVE DOWNSIZING

Trump has tasked the South Africa-born Musk and his team at DOGE, a temporary government agency, to undertake a massive downsizing of the 2.3 million-strong civilian federal workforce.

Musk, the world's richest person, has sent DOGE members into at least 16 government agencies, where they have gained access to computer systems with sensitive personnel and financial information, and sent workers home.

Gavin Kliger, a top staffer in DOGE, arrived at a new agency, the IRS, on Thursday, people familiar with the matter said.

It was the first time a Musk aide has entered the IRS, a longtime target of Republicans who claim without evidence that the Biden administration weaponized the agency to target small businesses and middle-class Americans with unnecessary audits.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has asked U.S. embassies worldwide to prepare for staff cuts, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, as part of the president's effort to overhaul the U.S. diplomatic corps.

Trump has pressed ahead with the effort despite a barrage of lawsuits from labor unions and Democratic attorneys general and criticism, including from several Republican budget experts, that the initiative is ideologically driven.