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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6857.13
6857.13
6857.13
6865.94
6827.13
+7.41
+ 0.11%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47850.93
47850.93
47850.93
48049.72
47692.96
-31.96
-0.07%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23505.13
23505.13
23505.13
23528.53
23372.33
+51.04
+ 0.22%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
98.820
98.900
98.820
98.980
98.810
-0.160
-0.16%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16603
1.16610
1.16603
1.16605
1.16408
+0.00158
+ 0.14%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33504
1.33514
1.33504
1.33507
1.33165
+0.00233
+ 0.17%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4226.62
4227.05
4226.62
4229.22
4194.54
+19.45
+ 0.46%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.296
59.333
59.296
59.469
59.187
-0.087
-0.15%
--

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Reserve Bank Of India Chief Malhotra On Rupee: Fluctuations Can Happen, Effort Is To Reduce Undue Volatility

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Reserve Bank Of India Chief Malhotra On Rupee: Allow Markets To Determine Levels On Currency

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Sri Lanka's CSE All Share Index Down 1.2%

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Iw Institute: German Economy Faces Tepid Growth In 2026 Due To Global Trade Slowdown

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Stats Office - Seychelles November Inflation At 0.02% Year-On-Year

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[Market Update] Spot Silver Prices Rose 2.00% Intraday, Currently Trading At $58.27 Per Ounce

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S.Africa's Gross Reserves At $72.068 Billion At End November - Central Bank

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[Market Update] Spot Silver Broke Through $58/ounce, Up 1.56% On The Day

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Dollar/Yen Down 0.33% To 154.61

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Kremlin Says No Plans For Putin-Trump Call For Now

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Kremlin Says Moscow Is Waiting For USA Reaction After Putin-Witkoff Meeting

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Cctv - China, France: Say Both Sides Support All Efforts For A Ceasefire, Restore Peace According To Intl Law

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[Chinese Ambassador To The US Xie Feng Hopes Chinese And American Business Communities Will Focus On Three Lists] On December 4, Chinese Ambassador To The US Xie Feng Delivered A Speech At The China-US Economic And Trade Cooperation Forum Jointly Hosted By The China Council For The Promotion Of International Trade And The Meridian International Center. Xie Feng Said That In November 2026, China Will Host The APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting For The Third Time In Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. In December 2026, The United States Will Also Host The G20 Meeting. Regarding How Chinese And American Business Communities Can Seize These Opportunities, He Suggested Focusing On Three Lists: First, Continue To Expand The Dialogue List; Second, Continuously Lengthen The Cooperation List; And Third, Constantly Reduce The Problem List

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India's Nifty Financial Services Index Extends Gains, Last Up 0.75%

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Eni : Jp Morgan Cuts To Underweight From Overweight

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Cctv - China, France: Signed Protocol On Sanitary, Phytosanitary Requirements For Export Of French Alfalfa Grass

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India's NIFTY IT Index Last Up 1.3%

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India's Nifty 50 Index Rises 0.35%

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Israel Sets 2026 Defence Budget At $34 Billion

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Russia Says Azov Sea's Port Of Temryuk Damaged In Ukrainian Attack

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          The Value of Vehicles

          UBS

          Economic

          Summary:

          ETFs vs. index funds and segregated mandates.

          ETFs are a relatively newcomer to the investment world but have recorded spectacular growth since their launch in 1990. Total AUM in ETFs have now reached USD 14 trillion globally, and exceed AUM in hedge funds. Given ETFs' increasing share of overall index assets, we believe investors need to be aware of their specifics when selecting an investment vehicle for their index portfolio. Below, we outline some of the key points that investors should consider when assessing the suitability of different investment vehicle options for their index portfolios.
          Structure and regulation: Segregated accounts are created for and managed on behalf of one investor only and they are typically unregulated. Such structure allows literally unlimited degree of flexibility in terms of mandate customisation to suit investor's specific requirements. In contrast, ETFs are organised as pooled vehicles open to many investors. They are listed on regulated exchanges, trade throughout the day and are continuously priced, just like common stocks. ETFs are regulated by national and supra-national investment directives, such as the UCITS directive in the EU. Although customisation is not available on ETFs, the vast range of ETFs available on practically any index allows investors to select from a variety of exposures. ETFs offer three key advantages: intraday liquidity, holdings transparency, and certainty of execution. They can be traded on the primary stock exchange, on multi-lateral trading facilities via the request for quote protocol and off exchange via the systematic internalizer regime. They can be traded on risk or versus NAV depending on the client’s execution strategy. Unlike other pooled funds, there is no concept of a swing adjustment so the client knows the ETF price or spread to NAV before trading. ETF providers are required to publish the full holdings daily.
          Cost: Segregated accounts and ETFs are priced differently and the overall cost, for a product tracking the same index, could vary significantly between the two. As a general rule, for larger size long term mandates segregated accounts tend to be a more cost effective solution than ETFs, but investors need to consider the specifics associated with the cost of the two investment vehicles, including:
          ETFs typically quote total expense ratio (TER) which, as the name suggests, is an all-encompassing flat fee that all investors in the ETF would pay, irrespective of the size of their portfolio.The cost of a segregated portfolio comprises several components, including management fee, index fee, and custody fee. Management fee, paid to the index manager, is negotiable and impacted, among other factors, by portfolio size, index complexity and index geographical exposure. Index fee includes asset-based index licence fee and index data fee, paid to the index provider, typically applies to all index portfolios, and, depending on the portfolio size and index type, could be the highest component of the overall fee. Custody fee, paid to the custodian, is usually negotiated between the client and the custodian of their choice.
          Stock lending income can help offset the cost for both ETFs and segregated accounts, although investors in segregated accounts would have more control over the stock lending arrangements. Investors in ETFs may be able to earn additional stock lending income from lending the ETF.
          Operational set-up: ETFs are operationally easy and quick to access for investors: they are long-only instruments with continuous pricing, have no maturity date and trading ETFs is analogous to trading cash equities. ETFs benefit from no onboarding requirement with the ETF provider and anonymity of investment. Segregated accounts tend to have a longer operational set-up process, involving execution of Investment Management Agreement, which is tailored for every segregated portfolio, custody set-up with the client's preferred custodian and customised reporting. In emerging markets opening custody accounts could be a long and somewhat expensive process.
          Transparency: Both segregated accounts and ETFs are highly transparent investment vehicles, but their transparency stems from different aspects. ETFs' transparency is related mostly to their structure and set-up, i.e., continuous trading throughout the day on regulated exchanges and daily disclosure of holdings. Segregated accounts' transparency occurs because the underlying equities are owned directly by the client, allowing continuous transparency, if required. One area where transparency tends to be higher for ETFs compared to segregated accounts is performance: performance for segregated accounts typically occurs on a monthly basis while for ETFs it is available daily.
          Customisation: As pooled vehicles are open to many investors, ETFs and index funds do not offer any customised features – to put it simply, investors get what’s ‘written on the tin’. However, the vast range of ETFs available on practically any index allows investors to select from a variety of exposures. Segregated accounts, in contrast, can be tailored to client's specific requirements from a number of angles. Clients can select a custom index as a benchmark for their index portfolio, or they can opt to keep the underlying index unchanged and apply the customisation on the portfolio via a custom rules-based strategy.
          Direct ownership of underlying: The topic of direct ownership of underlying is, in a way, related to the topic of customisation. Because ETFs are pooled vehicles open to many investors, clients don’t typically have control over matters such as trading for index changes, corporate actions treatment, risk budget utilisation, and voting (the latter is starting to change with potential opportunities to vote in certain exposures). Investors with segregated accounts, on the other hand, have a very high degree of control, as they could discuss and agree with their index manager the most efficient trading strategy and risk budget utilisation, stock lending arrangements, voting and engagement policy to match their specific requirements.
          Trading and liquidity: ETFs are usually traded on risk (an arrival price benchmark) or versus NAV (NAV benchmark). Increasingly we are seeing ETFs traded via dedicated fair value algorithms. The client is in full control of the execution strategy in terms of how to trade (exchange, multi-lateral trading facility or over the counter), when to trade (risk or versus NAV) and with whom to trade (which broker to trade with via the request for quote protocol). ETF investors can choose an execution strategy in line with their best execution policy. ETFs benefit from the concept of netting. In the secondary market ETFs buyers and sellers may match off therefore there is no primary market trade. As there is no primary market trade ETF investors may benefit from a reduced bid-ask spread versus NAV. Netting can be very beneficial in exposures with a large creation redemption spread due to taxes and stamp duties. The liquidity and spread of an ETF is a function of the liquidity and spread of the hedge. The hedge can be the underlying constituents, futures, other ETFs or the ETF itself. ETFs benefit from explicit liquidity (i.e. the ADV of the ETF itself) and implicit liquidity (i.e. what could be traded by analysing the liquidity of the hedge alternatives). An ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index that has never traded is not illiquid as it has high implicit liquidity due to its ability to be hedged with S&P 500 futures.
          Segregated accounts, on the other hand, are traded with one particular entity and would not typically be economically viable for very low investments, given the initial set-up costs.
          Withholding tax on dividends: The impact of withholding tax (WHT) on dividends on client portfolios varies significantly depending on, among other factors, client type, domicile and vehicle jurisdiction. While we do not offer tax advice, segregated accounts could be highly efficient vehicles for pension funds as they typically benefit from favourable tax treatment on dividends in certain jurisdictions. Investment in ETFs, on the other hand, could be subject to WHT on the dividend. When dividends are paid in the ETF, the level of non-reclaimable WHT would depend on the domicile of the ETF. If and when dividends are paid out of the ETF to investors, they may also be subject to WHT depending on the domicile of the ETF and the investors. Therefore, when selecting an ETF, investors would typically consider simultaneously the fund domicile, the tax treatment on ETF dividend distributions, and their tax position on distributions, in order to optimise their total cost of ownership.
          Ultimately, segregated mandates are typically more suitable and cost-effective for longer term, larger size investments, especially with customisation, for institutional investors, while ETFs might be more suitable for institutional, wholesale and retail clients with portfolios of any size, given they could be highly liquid, cheaper to trade and faster to set up. In practice, many institutional clients often invest their index portfolio in a mix of segregated accounts and ETFs.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          The Way the Music Died: Tariffs Could Hit Musical Instrument Imports

          PIIE

          Economic

          Conservative politics make for good music. The Nixon administration inspired anti-Vietnam war songs like “Fortunate Son” and “What’s Going On.” Ronald Reagan’s first term yielded “Born in the USA,” in which Bruce Springsteen smuggled social commentary on Vietnam and US industrial decline inside a hook so strong and anthemic that it has been serially misunderstood by reactionary politicians ever since. The first Trump administration elicited Childish Gambino’s “This is America.” And decades before all of this, Woodie Guthrie was wielding a six-string that killed fascists.
          Whatever creative songsmiths have on tap for the second Trump administration, the means of production will be more expensive if the president-elect follows through on his threats and campaign promises to raise tariffs. The musical instrument market is highly globalized, and threatened tariffs on China in particular will hit the entry-level market – students, teenagers looking to turn mowed lawns into rock star dreams, and cash-strapped school music programs – the hardest.
          President-elect Trump promised during the campaign to impose tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all imports, with an even higher 60 percent tariff on all imports from China. More recently, Trump threatened a 25 percent tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, which has disabused US trading partners of the notion that active free trade agreements will spare them from real or threatened tariffs.
          If caught up in Trump’s promised tariffs, the musical instrument trade would be one illustration of how the Trump’s trade measures will affect Americans’ lives by raising prices and reducing supply. The irony is that the globalization of the musical instrument industry has turned out pretty well for all involved, the United States included. It’s a clear example of the virtues of specialization, gains from trade, and market segmentation. These benefits are obvious when looking at specific firms.
          Take the Fender Musical Instruments Corporation, the United States’ largest manufacturer of guitars. Fender produces versions of its iconic Stratocaster in five locations: California, Mexico, Japan, Indonesia, and China. American-made Stratocasters are considered top of the line, made by skilled American luthiers and assembly technicians, and retail for $1,200 and up (way, way up for boutique models). Mexican-made Stratocasters use similar components but take advantage of wage differentials between the United States and Mexico to offer high-quality instruments at a lower price point ($800 to $1,350). Production quantities in Japan are small, tailored to Japanese tastes, and similar in price to US-built models. Chinese-made and Indonesian-made “Squier” versions of the Stratocaster leverage those countries’ cost competitiveness in both inputs and labor to bring beginner-level instruments to market for $200 to $600. Because of its global supply chains, Fender is able to serve the high-end, collector-grade, mid-grade, and beginner markets, both in the United States and abroad. This is an almost textbook example of how globalization makes a wide range of products at different price points available to a global consumer base.
          There would be a lot fewer guitar players in the United States if the only available instruments were American-made guitars. Those teens mowing lawns for guitar money would be middle-aged by the time they saved enough to purchase an American-made Strat. And American-made guitars would have a much smaller market if they could not be sold the world over.
          This kind of distributed, segmented production is not just the purview of guitar makers. The same pattern is generally true of brass, woodwind, and stringed instruments. Yamaha produces professional grade trumpets in Japan but manufactures their entry-level, student models in China. Ditto for their woodwind and stringed instruments. And it’s not just true of US or Japanese firms. The same story is true of Germany’s Sonor Drums – the R&D, product design, and high-end drums are German-made, but their entry-level drum sets are produced in China. And they do so for the same reason Fender does: to offer a quality but not premium instrument at an affordable price. And this doesn’t even get into the various components (like the little metal bits, including drum lugs and guitar bridges), many of which are made in China.
          Trade in musical instruments is dominated by a small set of exporters and importers with large market shares: The top ten exporters (see figure below) account for 84 percent of global exports. China and Indonesia are the largest exporters and run large trade surpluses. The countries with the largest trade deficits in musical instruments are the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, even though the United States is a large exporter itself. These patterns make sense if one considers musical instruments luxury goods: The market for the high-end products produced in advanced economies is inherently smaller – and for the US, more dominated by US-based consumers rather than exports – than the market for lower-end products produced by China and Indonesia, which serves not just the entry-level market in advanced economies but professional and gigging players in developing and middle-income countries.
          The Way the Music Died: Tariffs Could Hit Musical Instrument Imports_1
          The implications of Trump’s tariffs for the US musical instrument market are straightforward: It will have limited impact on high-end instruments but will increase prices significantly for beginner and student models. These models are overwhelmingly made in China and are precisely the models the musical instrument industry relies on to create its consumer base of the future.
          Production may shift to other countries, with Indonesia being a likely candidate to pick up market share. But those products would still be 10 to 20 percent more expensive than they would have been otherwise, and the costs of reorienting these supply chains and moving production out of China to avoid US tariffs will be absorbed by consumers – not just in the United States, but the world over. And like other regressive aspects of Trump’s proposed tariffs, the hardest hit segment of the market will be the lower income households and school music programs that need a reliable supply of relatively inexpensive instruments.
          Musical instruments account for just 0.04 percent of global exports, but their cultural import is vast. Many instruments are as iconic as the musicians who play them: Jimi Hendrix’s upside-down Stratocaster, Taylor Swift’s bedazzled Taylor acoustics, John Bonham’s see-through Ludwig Vistalite drums. Half of US households have at least one member who plays an instrument. China now has the largest musical instrument market in the world and is among the fastest growing market for Fender guitars. Music is a truly universal language with many practical benefits, especially for children and young people, such as building coordination, memory, and study habits.
          US consumers and manufacturers have been well-served by the globalization of the musical instrument industry, and there is no plausible argument to be made that tariffs are necessary to protect US industry or US manufacturers. Their American-made musical instruments are world renowned and industry-leading. US instrument manufacturers don’t want to produce entry-level instruments, because it would be a huge misallocation of their globally scarce highly skilled labor.
          As a share of the potential economic costs of rising protectionism and geoeconomic fragmentation, the effects for the musical instrument market would be a rounding error. But the costs to our humanity, and our ability to speak a common, harmonious language, could be enormous.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Central Bank of Turkey Initiates Rate Cuts With 250bp and Narrows the Corridor

          ING

          Central Bank

          Forex

          At the final MPC meeting of the year, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) initiated an easing cycle as widely expected and cut the policy rate by 250bp to 47.5%, though expectations related to the size of the cut varied between 100bp-to-250bp. Additionally, the CBT narrowed the interest rate corridor from 600bp to 300bp (by setting the overnight borrowing and lending rates 150 basis points below and above the policy rate), returning to the width before the March 2024 meeting. Given excess liquidity in the system, creating downward pressure in ON rates being sterilised by the CBT through net open market operations (OMO), and sell-side TL currency/gold swap auctions (reverse swap), the narrower corridor will reduce the volatility in ON rates and push closer to the policy rate.
          The governor’s remarks at the introduction of the latest Inflation Report in early November signalled the start of rate cuts as he explained that keeping the policy rate unchanged implies a more restrictive monetary stance as inflation and inflation expectations decline. Accordingly, we saw a revision to the statement last month with an implicit guidance on real rates and setting the scene for the start of gradual rate cuts in line with a decline in realised and expected inflation. Given this backdrop of raising expectations for a rate cut in December, recent developments have also added to them, including i) a lower-than-expected 30% hike in minimum wage, implying a measured 1ppt additional impact on the headline inflation and ii) eight planned MPC meetings in 2025 vs twelve originally, hinting at a higher size of rate cuts per meeting.
          In the December statement, the CBT has kept the policy guidance with a continuing commitment to i) keep rates higher for longer until a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation and convergence of inflation expectations to the CBT’s projected forecast range and ii) determine the level of the policy rate in a way to ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path, taking into account both realised and expected inflation. The CBT also added a relatively hawkish message and stated that it would take its decisions “prudently on a meeting-by-meeting basis with a focus on the inflation outlook”. While implying a continuation of interest rate cuts in the period ahead, the addition to forward guidance shows that the cuts will depend on the data, but not be aggressive and uninterrupted.

          In the MPC note, the other points worth mentioning are:

          Regarding the assessment of the inflation outlook, while acknowledging flat underlying trend in November the CBT has remained cautiously optimistic as it sees leading indicators point to a decline in the underlying trend in December with a moderation in unprocessed food inflation after an elevated course in October and November.
          For domestic demand, the bank assessed that domestic demand continues to slow down in the last quarter in currently disinflationary levels.
          The CBT continues to expect a significant contribution from increased coordination of fiscal policy to the disinflation process. The government announced some actions recently, including an increase in withholding tax collected from dividends, introduction in tax for e-commerce transactions, more than 40% adjustment in some administrative fines. This implies that the government is taking some steps towards the 3% budget deficit target for 2025, supporting the CBT view.
          All in all, given the expected normalisation in unprocessed food prices leading to the higher-than-expected November inflation, growing evidence of an economic slowdown and recent CBT signals implying the initiation of an easing cycle, the bank cut the policy rate in December. While the cut was 250bp with a message implying data-driven, cautious, and meeting-based decision-making, the spread between overnight borrowing and lending narrowed to 300bp. The narrowing of the corridor would prevent a significant decline in ON rates with the excess liquidity.

          Source:ING

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          2025 GBP/USD Outlook Fundamental Preview

          FOREX.com

          Economic

          Forex

          GBP/USD showed resilience in 2024, falling just 1% across the year. The pair experienced strong gains between April to September, rising from a low of 1.23 to a high of 1.34. However, GBP/USD fell 5% in the final quarter of the year amid notable USD strength, pulling GBP/USD from 1.34 to the 1.25 level where it trades at the time of writing.
          While the pound booked losses against the US dollar in 2024, GBP's performance against other major peers was impressive, rising solidly against EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD, and JPY.
          GBP/USD has been supported across 2024 by the BoE cutting rates at a slower pace than the Federal Reserve and by the expectation that this trend would continue in 2025. However, Donald Trump's victory in the US election, combined with the Labour government’s Budget, means that the outlook for both economies has changed, potentially impacting the direction of monetary policy in 2025 for both central banks and GBP/USD.

          GBP/USD outlook – UK economic factors

          Growth
          The UK economy is expected to continue to grow in 2025. However, GDP could be weaker than the 1.5% forecast by the BoE owing to several key factors, including uncertainty surrounding trade and a less expansionary UK budget.
          Trump’s second term in the White House brings uncertainty, and UK trade will be under the spotlight. While the UK isn’t directly in the firing line for tariffs, the openness of the UK economy means a global shift towards increased tariffs could hurt growth prospects. However, should the UK pursue and achieve closer ties with the US or the EU, this could help growth but not to the extent of reducing the impact of Brexit.
          The extent of the indirect impact of trade tariffs on the UK will depend on their magnitude. The UK is already experiencing depressed growth, which Trump’s action could exasperate.
          The BoE forecasts GDP growth of 0% in Q4 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. The OECD forecasts 1.7% growth, and Bloomberg's survey of economists points to growth of 1.3%.
          Inflation
          In November, inflation in the UK was 2.6% YoY, rising for a second straight month and remaining above the Bank of England's 2% target as wage growth and service sector inflation remain sticky.
          The labour market has shown signs of easing, but unemployment remains low by historical standards at 4.2%, and wage growth elevated at 5.2%. We expect some softening in the UK job market following the Labour government’s first Budget.
          Chancellor Rachel Reeves placed a major tax burden on employers with a rise in employer National Insurance contributions and an increase in the minimum wage. A broad range of UK labour market indicators point to a weakening outlook, with surveys indicating that UK firms (especially smaller firms) are scaling back hiring plans.
          Although wage growth and service sector inflation were slightly firmer than expected at the end of 2024, the disinflationary trend remains intact, with core inflation well below last year's highs.
          The BoE projections show CPI could reach 2.7% in 2025 before easing to 2.5% in 2026. However, this could be lower if the labour market weakens further and if growth remains lacklustre.
          2025 GBP/USD Outlook Fundamental Preview_1

          Will the BoE cut rates in 2025?

          At the final BoE meeting in 2025, the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, in line with expectations. However, the vote split was more dovish than expected, at 6-3 compared to the 8-1 forecast. This suggests that dovish momentum is building within the monetary policy committee for a rate cut in February.
          The central bank signaled gradual, rare cuts throughout 2025 amid sticky inflation, although policymakers are increasingly concerned over the growth outlook. The market is pricing 50 basis points worth of cuts in 2025, supporting the pound.
          However, this could be conservative given that the labour market could weaken considerably following the Budget. A weaker labour market will lower wage growth and impact consumption, potentially cooling inflation faster. Uncertainty surrounding trade could ease inflationary pressures further in 2025, meaning deeper cuts from the BoE than the market is pricing in. As a result, GBP could come under pressure across H1 2025.

          GBP/USD outlook - US economic factors

          USD strength was nothing short of impressive in Q4. The USD index jumped 5% to reach a two-year high, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at a slower pace in 2025. Despite the outsized move in Q4, we expect further USD strength in 2025.
          At the time of writing, US CPI has risen for the past two months, reaching 2.7% YoY in November. Core PCE is also proving to be sticky, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Earlier confidence at the Federal Reserve that inflation would continue falling to the 2% target appears to have faded amid ongoing US economic exceptionalism and a cooling but not collapsing labour market.
          Signs of sticky inflation come as the US job market remains resilient. Nonfarm payrolls for November showed 227k jobs were added. Unemployment has ticked higher but is expected to end 2025 at 4.3%, down from 4.4% previously expected.
          Meanwhile, economic growth in the US remains solid. The US recorded Q3 GDP as 3.1% annually, up from 2.8% in Q2. According to the OECD, the US is expected to see strong growth among the G7 economies, with 2.8% growth expected in 2024 and 2.4% forecast for 2025.
          A combination of sticky-than-expected inflation, solid growth, and a resilient jobs market suggests that the US economy is on a strong footing as Trump comes into power.
          2025 GBP/USD Outlook Fundamental Preview_2

          Political factors

          Trump is widely expected to implement inflationary measures, including tax cuts and trade tariffs. Inflationary policies at a time when US inflation is starting to heat up again could create more of a headache for the Federal Reserve continuing with its easing cycle.

          Will the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2025?

          At its last meeting of 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the second consecutive 25-basis-point cut and following a 50-basis-point reduction in September, when it kicked off its rate-cutting cycle.
          However, the Fed also signaled slower and shallower rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference and policymakers’ updated projections confirm that the Fed will be much more cautious next year.
          The Fed increased its inflation forecast to 2.5% YoY, up from 2.1%, and isn’t expected to reach 2% until 2027.
          The market is pricing in just 35 basis points worth of cuts next year, and the first rate cut isn’t expected until July.
          However, Trump’s policy plans will be the most significant determinant of the Fed's decisions regarding rates next year.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
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          Europe’s Economic Challenges Discussed at the European Forum Alpbach

          Bruegel

          Economic

          Introduction

          The European Forum Alpbach is an annual conference, staged since the 1940s in Austria, where the challenges faced by Europe and the European Union are discussed. At the 2024 forum (17-30 August 2024) , Bruegel participated as a Track Reporting Partner covering the finance and economy track. This article summarises the discussions relating to six issues within that track. The six issues, which are in line with Bruegel’s Research Programme 2024/2025, were:
          The evolution of inequality
          Within-country inequality has been increasing for the last two to three decades. Meanwhile, convergence between poorer and richer countries may have slowed because of conflicts or the impact of automation and technological change. Different levels of inequality within market economies show that some governments are more willing to deploy the tools to address this challenge. While still very limited, wealth taxation is often seen as a possible tool to tackle the problem.
          Financing the green transition
          Europe has a long-term strategy for the green transition and is starting to implement it. The strategy requires significant investment, which neither the public nor private sector can provide alone. The European Union needs to complete its capital markets union and increase the attractiveness of investment through better regulation.
          The future of work: artificial intelligence and automation
          Employment rates remain high, and the predictions that technological change will destroy jobs have yet to materialise. Given the rapid take-up of new technologies in recent years, Europe should focus on regulations that protect consumers and their personal rights, while protecting innovation and economic growth.
          Defence
          Russia poses the biggest threat to the security of democratic European countries. European defence needs greater transnational cooperation and more integration, so that European defence companies can achieve bigger scale and remain competitive globally. Unified capital markets will again be important in stimulating greater levels of short- and long-term investment.
          Finance
          Demographic change challenges the sustainability of European pension systems and welfare states more generally. Governments must design systems that guarantee both intergenerational fairness and fiscal sustainability, while encouraging financial literacy.
          Digital currencies, specifically the digital euro, present new challenges and opportunities. Europe could reduce its reliance on foreign providers through the use of digital currencies. New digital payment methods may play a geopolitical role by making it easier to circumvent international financial sanctions.
          Making economics useful for the modern world
          Economists seek to anticipate and understand socioeconomic interactions. In the modern, data-rich world, the field has developed rigorous quantitative tools to improve fact-based policymaking. However, economists should also work collaboratively with other social scientists to offer more holistic approaches to complex problems.

          Inequality

          Challenges
          The COVID-19 pandemic deepened inequality. The world’s five richest people have doubled their wealth since 2020, and the richest 20 percent own 80 percent of total wealth. Inequality can lead to undesirable social outcomes and have negative effects on economic growth. It is linked to the rise of extremism and social backlash. It also affects socioeconomic indicators such as childhood poverty rates, affecting future economic growth and productivity.
          Among the drivers of inequality, one factor explaining wealth inequality is different investment returns across the income distribution. People at the top own financial assets, those in the middle own houses, and the poorest households own barely anything. Risk preferences explain part of these differences: poorer households have a greater chance of being affected by unemployment, so they do not want risk buying a house and being unable to pay for it. Wealth inequality is thus self-reinforcing: returns are higher for those who already have substantial assets. Other factors deepening inequality include the rise of monopolistic markets, the non-mobility of labour and the anti-union movements in certain countries.
          Inequality is growing within countries, and some factors may be slowing down the convergence between poorer and richer countries that has taken place in the last few decades. Within countries, demographic change affects inequality and wealth, as people live longer and their descendants inherit their assets later in life. Between countries, military conflicts stop growth for some emerging economies, widening the gap between high- and low-income countries. Changes in AI and robotics might also constrain the convergence of developing countries as some growth opportunities may no longer need to be located in poorer countries.
          Potential solutions
          High inequality is not an inherent characteristic of market economies. This is shown by the existence of market economies with both higher (United States) and lower (Nordic countries) levels of inequality. Governments have tools to reduce inequality. Advances in economic research and the availability of rich data can help address these issues. Leading institutions and organisations are developing new projects with this purpose.
          Inequality and technological developments are leading to a rethink of the role of taxation and wealth taxation specifically. Wealth taxation has changed significantly over recent decades. While previously a number of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries had wealth taxes, currently only about four do. In Austria, for example, capital gains taxation has been rather flat for the last 20 years. Most wealth is concentrated at the top of the distribution. Even at the top, wealth is skewed towards the very rich.
          Labour income used to be enough to climb the income ladder, but now reaching the top of the income distribution only with labour revenues would take more than a lifetime. Capital income has become more important, but taxing wealth is different to taxing labour income, and it might be difficult to make it effective. Assets are sometimes highly illiquid, and it is often possible to restructure assets to avoid taxation (eg through investing in art).
          Wealth taxation is thus an instrument to consider when trying to reduce inequality. However, difficulties arise in terms of the practical details of taxing capital in ways that are both effective and economically efficient.

          Financing the green transition

          Challenges
          Climate change is already being felt and the cost of inaction is huge. No short-term solution will work, so Europe needs to effectively and efficiently implement its long-term strategy: the European Green Deal.
          The European Green Deal lacks the resources required to deliver this transition. Some estimates, cited at the forum, point to €700 billion needed per year, while the Green Deal has around €170 billion per year. The big investment gap needed to be filled from both public and private sources. Europe therefore needs to attract more private capital, and to develop fully a capital markets union, while also changing the investment culture and moving to long-term money.
          Some aspects of the green transition do not necessarily carry a cost. For example, evidence is lacking for the assumption that the transition will have an overall negative impact on labour markets. The green transition affects labour markets in different ways, creating opportunities for green jobs but also destroying or modifying carbon-intensive jobs.
          Potential solutions
          The EU should prioritise the completion of the capital markets union so funding stays in Europe and remains available to European companies and to meet European needs. Governments need to maintain their efforts to increase levels of financial literacy, so that new financing channels will open up and be used by private individuals. The EU should also deploy its soft power and EU regulation as a global standard for climate finance, while easing bureaucracy.

          AI and automation

          Challenges
          The predicted collapse of the labour market because of AI has not materialised yet. Employment has actually increased in companies with high AI exposure. Furthermore, employees in these sectors tend to have a positive view of AI: it helps their work and makes them more productive.
          However, the pace of AI development and adoption is very fast. Implementation of these technologies will happen sooner or later in every sector or application, and companies will need to integrate these technological advances wherever they can.
          Policymakers must navigate this trade-off. While AI can lead to productivity and welfare gains, the fast pace of AI development and adoption also shows the importance of protecting both people and innovation. Innovation must not be undermined by allowing AI to carry out tasks that might breach social rights and European values, such as surveillance or propagation of biases based on race or gender.
          Potential solutions
          EU regulation should aim at increasing trust in AI, which in Europe is currently lower than in other major economies including India and China. Effective regulation can increase trust and encourage consumers and businesses to use AI.
          Similarly, the risks of AI and its possible undermining of privacy or personal rights should be addressed through smart regulation. This would allow users to use AI tools confidently, while protecting an innovative and productive business environment.
          The future of work is uncertain, but so far, employment levels remain at record highs in many economies. It seems that as long as there are problems to solve, jobs will be needed.

          Defence

          Challenges
          Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens European democratic countries, and should be a wake-up call. It requires a European response but most European countries still take national approaches to the problem. This is mostly reflected on the production side, with countries usually preferring to buy military products from their national companies. The EU does not have common public procurement for defence, resulting in 27 different procurement systems. As pointed out in several discussions, European nations need to show greater willingness to defend Europe and European values, including through military means.
          Underinvestment in the defence sector has lasted for decades. Furthermore, the fragmented defence market means the EU does not have the scale and level of specialisation necessary to spend money efficiently, make essential investments and achieve higher productivity. Underinvestment is even more worrying on the R&D side, in particular startups and venture capital.
          Collaboration with the US within NATO is indispensable, especially given the immediate threat from the war in Ukraine. However, Europe is still too reliant on foreign providers, especially the US. Even for some European products (eg drones), manufacturing takes place abroad (for instance in China), posing risks to economic security.
          Potential solutions
          European defence needs new reliable and long-term frameworks for common procurement, together with better integration of national defence sectors. This would increase the attractiveness of the European defence market and facilitate the scale and necessary investments needed to increase national and continental security.
          Europe needs to maintain its cooperation with international partners, especially within NATO. Deepening the single market for defence would be a way to increase Europe’s competitiveness and production, resulting in less security reliance on foreign providers and enhancing Europe’s strategic autonomy.

          Finance

          a. The future of pension systems

          Challenges
          Demographic change poses a considerable challenge to the sustainability of public pensions and the overall welfare state if necessary measures are not taken. The current labour force might receive significantly lower pensions than current retirees. This gap between current and future pensions is expected to keep increasing over time.
          European consumers are rather risk averse in relation to investment, with their savings mainly in banks and housing. This behaviour should change; consumers should also consider investing in other financial instruments. It is no coincidence that countries with greater risk appetite also have better funded investment and pension systems.
          Within the EU the full inter-country mobility necessary to have a real single market in Europe for pensions is still lacking – another missing layer from the capital markets union. Countries should learn from each other and see what has been done wrongly and what could have been done better in other countries.
          Potential solutions
          Pension systems should build up the different pillar structures: public pensions, private pensions and complementary pensions or private savings and investments, to guarantee the sustainability of pension systems and the adequacy of pensions. Options such as making work and retirement compatible, or incentives for worker to invest, should also be considered and encouraged by public policies.
          Governments should increase financial literacy across different socioeconomic groups. Financial literacy is a tool for intergenerational justice that can serve as a catalyst for investment, while also addressing gender and income inequalities.
          b. Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and the digital euro
          Challenges
          The digital euro is still in the preparation phase. Different questions are being asked about the EU’s digital currency and CBDCs in general.
          The geopolitical component of CBDCs remains under-examined. Recent conflicts have shown the important role played by the international financial system in imposing sanctions. The development of new digital payment systems could allow countries such as Russia to circumvent Western sanctions.
          CBDCs can be a way for payment systems to reduce reliance on foreign providers. In Europe for instance, there can security risks if the payment system market is dominated only by non-European companies.
          Many people still do not understand what CBDCs are, and how they can or cannot be useful, suggesting a communication deficiency from the institutional side. The same problem applies to anonymity and privacy, as there seems to be no understanding on these aspects of the difference, for example, between cash or private money and the digital euro. The degree of success in communicating to and instilling trust in the public will ultimately determine the usage of digital currencies by consumers.
          Potential solutions
          European and particularly euro-area institutions should take into account the geopolitical component of digital currencies. It should be possible to continue to enforce international regulations via new digital payment systems – for example the correct application of financial sanctions.

          Making economics useful

          Challenges
          Economics is about anticipating and understanding interactions between different agents that might have opposite interests. Economists need numbers to justify what they say, and every policy recommendation should be fact-based – this is the value added that economic analysis brings.
          The task for economists, however, is often not easy. Given the complexity of modern economies, and the difficulties underlying politics, understanding and anticipating the relevant interactions is challenging.
          Economists need to remind policymakers that there are usually trade-offs between objectives. This is not always an easy task. Economists need to be innovative and bring new ideas to the trends currently shaping the world, such as the influence of China in developing countries as a global geopolitical player, or the threat of gas shortages in the EU. Economics can provide rigorous quantitative approaches that help tackle such problems, as it did during the energy crisis.
          The modern world is data-rich, and data and quantitative skills are key. These allow economics and economists to be more precise and provide critical evidence for modern fact-based policymaking.
          Potential solutions
          Economists should continue to be rigorous in advising policymakers, so that effective and efficient policies are put in place. Quantitative work is key in a data-rich world, in order to anticipate and understand economic interactions.
          Better communication would help both policymakers and the general public to understand the findings and proposed solutions.
          Finally, collaboration with other social sciences is important, so that economic analyses improve policies in a holistic manner.

          Conclusion

          Europe and the EU face multidimensional crises, adding extra layers of difficulty to the rather recent recovery from the financial and euro crisis. Meanwhile, the climate crisis is worsening and action needs to be accelerated, starting with financing for climate policies. The fast pace of development and adoption of new technologies such as AI could bring considerable benefits and growth opportunities, but also poses risks to personal rights. Russia has brought war back to Europe, threatening national and continental security. And demographic change and the digital economy imply challenges to financial systems, affecting the sustainability of welfare states and the structures of payment systems.
          Part of the response to the challenge should be European. Economic analysis offers tools that modern policymaking needs. Quantitative and rigorous approaches, combined with inputs from other fields, will help address the complex problems Europe faces in 2024.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          The ‘Doom Loop’ and Default Incentives

          CEPR

          Economic

          Bond

          The ‘doom loop’ describes the spillovers between fiscal sustainability risk and financial stability risk, arising from the government and financial sectors each being exposed to stress in the other sector. Specifically, if sovereign bonds lose value because the government’s creditworthiness is declining, the balance sheets of financial institutions suffer, because they hold large amounts of domestic government bonds. Weakened financial institutions, in turn, may force the government to bail out the financial system. Such bailouts entail expenses for the government, casting a further shadow over their finances. This vicious circle can exacerbate economic downturns (Acharya et al. 2014, Farhi and Tirole 2018) or even trigger purely panic-driven crises (Brunnermeier et al. 2016, 2017;, Cooper and Nikolov 2018). This is why sovereign crises can develop suddenly – and can easily spiral out of control.
          The ‘Doom Loop’ and Default Incentives_1
          To break the doom loop, a common policy recommendation is to sever the link between the financial system, or banks for short, and the government. How can this be done? One way is to limit banks’ exposure to domestic sovereign debt – for example, through regulatory requirements. Another way is to stabilise bond prices near their fundamental value by providing a central bank backstop through bond purchases. Indeed, such policy proposals have emerged as lessons learned from the euro area debt crisis (e.g. Bénassy-Quéré et al. 2019).
          However, this reasoning overlooks a critical aspect: how the identity of the government’s creditors shapes its default incentives and ultimately the sustainability of its debt. Lowering domestic banks’ exposure to sovereign debt can weaken a government’s incentives to avoid default in two ways (Bolton and Jeanne 2011, Gennaioli et al. 2014). First, if domestic banks hold lower volumes of domestic sovereign bonds, a greater share needs to be held by foreigners. Governments are typically less inclined to repay foreign lenders than domestic ones, so this increases the likelihood of default. Second, if banks are shielded from a sovereign debt crisis, the fallout of a sovereign default will be less severe, which can also increase the likelihood of default. We refer to these two effects as the ‘temptation channel’ and the ‘commitment channel’, respectively. Through these channels, policies reducing the exposure of domestic banks to domestic sovereign debt may inadvertently undermine fiscal sustainability.
          In Rojas and Thaler (2024), we explore this tension between the detrimental effects of banks’ exposure to domestic sovereign debt (the doom loop) and the beneficial effects related to governments’ default incentives (the temptation and the commitment channels). We use a simple three-period model of sovereign debt and banking that incorporates multiple equilibria – similar to the frameworks used in the aforementioned studies. We focus on the strategic nature of sovereign default. Our analysis reveals the unintended consequences of interventions aimed at breaking the doom loop and highlights unexpected benefits of non-interventionist approaches.

          Unintended consequences of limiting banks’ exposure

          Limiting banks’ holdings of domestic sovereign bonds deactivates the doom loop by breaking one link in the chain: domestic banks’ balance sheets are no longer negatively affected if the price of sovereign bonds falls, which prevents further financial stress.
          However, it entails other risks and costs. In most countries, the domestic financial sector is a major holder of domestic sovereign bonds. As Figure 2 shows, in 2023 the domestic financial sector held more than 50% of sovereign debt in countries like Spain, Italy and Germany. So, a limit would cause a significant shift of sovereign debt from domestic to foreign holders.
          The ‘Doom Loop’ and Default Incentives_2
          This shift can affect the likelihood of default through the temptation and commitment channels. The lower the holdings by domestic banks, the greater the temptation for that government to default, as a higher fraction of debt is held by foreigners. Simultaneously, the less the domestic financial sector would suffer from a government default, the weaker that government’s implicit commitment to repay. So where is the problem, as long as the sovereign does not actually default? In fact, while limiting banks’ exposure can reduce the likelihood of a panic driven by the doom loop, the associated higher risk of fundamental default would increase risk premia and therefore public sector financing costs during normal times. These costs must be weighed against the benefits of eliminating the doom loop. If the risk of a doom loop is sufficiently low, why pay to insure against it?

          Benefits of debt renationalisation during panics

          During financial turmoil, governments often incur significant fiscal expenses – such as bailouts – which force the government to issue additional debt. If all of the new debt is bought by foreign investors, then the government’s temptation to default increases, fuelling the doom loop. Conversely, if domestic banks purchase the additional debt, the temptation to default does not rise and sovereign debt prices do not fall in response to a bailout – effectively disabling the doom loop.
          In other words, debt renationalisation can act as a stabiliser in times of sovereign stress by preventing self-reinforcing fears of default. Both the European sovereign debt crisis and, more recently, the COVID-19 crisis featured debt renationalisation. While such shifts in investor composition are often seen as a problem, our theory suggests they may actually be beneficial – and should not be restricted by regulation.

          Policies in a monetary union

          At the EU level, two policy proposals have attracted particular attention: first a central bank backstop such as the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) and, second, the European Safe Bonds (ESBies) proposal by Brunnermeier et al. (2016, 2017). By analysing the interplay between investor composition and government default, we uncover important lessons for both policy approaches.

          The Transmission Protection Instrument

          As yields on European debt climbed at the start of the COVID crisis, sparking fears of a return of the doom loop, the ECB launched the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). It enables the ECB “to make secondary market purchases of securities issued in jurisdictions experiencing a deterioration in financing conditions not warranted by country-specific fundamentals” (ECB press release, 21 July 2022). The doom loop produces just such non-fundamental variation in sovereign bond prices.
          In our set-up, the TPI can indeed be an effective tool to avoid the panic-driven doom loop. Flooring sovereign debt prices limits the potential losses of financial institutions, avoiding large bailouts and consequently the spillover from fiscal to financial risk.
          However, the policy must be carefully calibrated to avoid the risk of a new self-fulfilling panic. Imagine that all private investors sell off the bonds of one particular government. Bond prices drop until they reach the threshold at which the ECB intervenes by buying debt to stabilise the price. This insulates banks from any further losses in case of a subsequent default, reducing the government’s incentive to repay its debts through the commitment channel. And to the extent that part of the default losses faced by the ECB are shared across the member states, it also reduces the repayment incentive through the temptation channel. Consequently, the perceived risk of a sovereign default increases. If the ECB buys the bonds at prices above the levels justified by the higher default risk due to a change in investor composition, the initial sell-off to the ECB is rational from an investor’s perspective. The sell-off thus becomes self-fulfilling.
          Such a panic can be avoided if the ECB sets a floor for bond prices far enough below their fundamental value. However, the floor must not be too low, or it will fail to curb the original doom loop panic. Picking the right intervention threshold is therefore a delicate balancing act.
          The risk-sharing arrangements among the individual national central banks and the rest of the Eurosystem play an important role in finding this balance. The less risk-sharing there is, the larger the range of desirable intervention thresholds for the bond price. In other words, less risk-sharing makes it easier to successfully calibrate the TPI.

          European Safe Bonds

          The proposal for European Safe Bonds (ESBies) consists in a macroprudential policy restricting the sovereign bond holdings of euro area banks to ESBies, which would be the senior tranche of a bundle of European bonds. This way banks would avoid large exposures to their own government and would have a ‘safer’ asset. However, this policy could have two unwanted side effects.
          First, as mentioned earlier, this could increase financing costs due to weakened incentives to repay. Second, while the doom loop at the national level would disappear, a new doom loop could emerge: sufficiently widespread panic about euro area countries’ ability to repay their debts could trigger a repricing of the senior tranche, destabilising the financial system Europe-wide. This, in turn, could force several countries to bail out their banks – creating a new, even larger doom loop at the European level.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
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          From Cash to Bonds: A Strategic Shift in Post-Pandemic Investing

          PIMCO

          Economic

          Bond

          As post-pandemic disruptions to markets and economies recede, long-term trends are reasserting themselves. One key signal that markets are returning to historical patterns appeared in November, when a common yield measure on the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index climbed above the Federal Reserve policy rate for the first time in more than a year.
          It’s difficult to overstate how extraordinary it was to have a benchmark bond yield running below – sometimes well below – the federal funds rate for such an extended period. Prior to the pandemic, this had only happened four times in this century, and never for more than a few weeks at a stretch (see Figure 1).
          From Cash to Bonds: A Strategic Shift in Post-Pandemic Investing_1
          This prolonged reversal in the usual market trend reflected not only the Fed’s restrictive policy, but also investors’ response to the extreme inflation spike and other consequences of the pandemic. Many investors retreated into cash – which offered yields not seen in decades along with perceived safety – and stayed there.

          Changed circumstances

          Two years later, the market landscape has transformed. Now that the Fed has embarked on a rate-cutting path, over-allocating in cash creates reinvestment risk as the assets rapidly and repeatedly turn over into lower-yielding versions of themselves.
          At the same time, we witnessed a profound shift higher in bond yields from pandemic-era lows. Relative to cash, where yields are dwindling as interest rates drop, bonds offer a more compelling opportunity: Consider the same core bond index yield measured against another common proxy for cash, the yield on the 3-month U.S. Treasury (see Figure 2). Both cash and bonds offered attractive yields over the past two years, but cash investors by nature can’t lock in those yields for longer time periods – and since September, when the Fed cut its policy rate by 50 basis points (bps), the outlook for cash yields relative to core bonds has diminished sharply.
          From Cash to Bonds: A Strategic Shift in Post-Pandemic Investing_2
          The Fed’s trajectory is not a foregone conclusion, and indeed we may see some upward revisions in officials’ rate projections following the December meeting, but the data and the communications to date suggest the most likely scenario is one of gradually lower rates. The Fed is looking to secure a soft landing for the U.S. economy – with labor markets healthy and inflation near target – and it has flexibility to pursue its goals despite expected or unexpected obstacles (e.g., trade policy, geopolitics, price surprises). This rate environment is highly favorable for bonds.

          Bonds for the long run

          Based on current relative valuations and market conditions, we believe there is compelling value in high quality, liquid public fixed income. Starting yields are attractive compared with other assets across the risk and liquidity spectrum – including cash – and historically, starting yields have been a strong indicator of long-term fixed income performance.
          Also, bonds are well-positioned to withstand a range of scenarios outside the baseline. Historically, high quality bonds tend to perform well during soft landings – and even better in recessions, should that scenario play out instead. Bonds also have performed well historically across a range of different rate-cutting scenarios (like snowflakes, no two monetary cycles are alike) – see Figure 3. Whether the Fed took a very gradual (“higher-for-longer”) approach, or initiated a drastic drop, or took a downward path somewhere between those extremes, bonds subsequently outyielded cash in each of those historical rate environments.
          From Cash to Bonds: A Strategic Shift in Post-Pandemic Investing_3

          Hedge and diversify risk

          The bond market is effectively paying investors to hedge and diversify risk. Equity markets have a more checkered history with rate-cutting cycles, and indeed generally higher volatility over time – and we are in a period of heightened geopolitical unrest, along with leadership changes in major economies around the world.
          Bonds and equities are negatively correlated today, after moving more in tandem during the post-pandemic inflation shock. A negative stock/bond correlation amplifies bonds’ potential to be a stable anchor for portfolios.
          Historical trends also support bonds as an attractive risk hedge. Looking back at bond and equity markets on average since 1973, during periods when U.S. core bonds are yielding around 5% or greater while U.S. equities’ earnings ratios are above 30 – as they are today – bonds have offered higher five-year subsequent returns (see Figure 4), and with potentially lower volatility.
          From Cash to Bonds: A Strategic Shift in Post-Pandemic Investing_4
          A fixed income allocation offers attractive yields, potential for price appreciation, and a liquid hedge against the risk that equities or other more volatile assets see a sustained contraction.

          Takeaway

          Market signals and Fed moves mean that bond yields have turned a corner. The combination of high starting yields and anticipation for lower rates creates an attractive outlook for a wide variety of bonds. Investors lingering in cash may want to consider fixed income.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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