Solid GDP Growth in Poland in 3Q25 Amid Rising Investment

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The StatOffice revised third-quarter GDP growth to 3.8% YoY from the previously reported 3.7% and released details on its composition. Seasonally adjusted data points to 0.9% quarter-on-quarter expansion vs. 0.8%QoQ in the previous quarter, indicating that buoyant growth momentum observed in recent quarters has been maintained.

Growth maintained solid momentum in 3Q25

Consumption is not booming, but investment (mainly public and imported) is strong

Domestic demand advanced by 3.7%YoY in 3Q25, mainly on the back of robust total consumption that accounts for around 80% of GDP. Quite surprisingly, public consumption growth (7.4%YoY) was stronger than households' consumption, which moderated to 3.5%YoY from a strong 4.5%YoY in the previous quarter.

The dynamics of disposable income moderated this year compared to an exceptionally strong 2024, but the solid growth of nominal wages, combined with lower inflation and lower marginal propensity to save, has supported private spending. As a result, household consumption growth is still likely to surpass the 2024 figure.

Still, we cannot describe current developments as a consumption boom, supporting expectations for consumer inflation to stabilise ahead. This marks a clear shift from pre-pandemic business cycles, when consumption growth outpaced GDP and hovered around 5-6%, rather than the current 3-4%. This time, both expand hand in hand.

Fixed investment growth was surprisingly robust (7.1%YoY), but most likely mainly in the public sector (including defence equipment purchases), as data on investment outlays in large enterprises did not point to any significant improvement in this area.

In the coming quarters, investments should be supported by the lower cost of credit following the National Bank of Poland (NBP) rate cuts, and projects co-financed with the Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF). The change in inventories knocked off 1.0 percentage point from annual GDP growth in 3Q25, while it contributed 1.0 percentage point in the previous quarter.

Exports surprised to the upside despite stagnant Germany

Net exports contributed 0.2 percentage points to economic growth in 3Q25 as the surplus in the trade balance increased. Exports of goods and services rose by 6.1%YoY, while imports increased by 5.9%YoY. Exports performance was a positive surprise, especially given stagnation in the German economy, Poland's main trading partner.

Services continue to propel economy, while industry is gradually recovering

Gross value added grew by 3.4%YoY. The improvement in industry is noteworthy as its value added rose by 4.9%YoY versus 1.8%YoY in 2Q25. Construction was still nearly stagnant (+0.3%YoY vs. -0.2%YoY in 2Q25).

Growth in trade and repairs slowed slightly (4.3%YoY vs. 5.9%YoY in the previous quarter), but robust growth was still reported in professional activities that include some share services. Other service sectors like transport and logistics also posted strong growth (5.3%YoY).

October data indicate a strong start to Q4 for Poland, with prospects for a gradual recovery in construction and continued industrial growth. However, services remain the main driver of expansion.

GDP growth of 3.5-4.0% in 2025-26, supported by RRF

Our forecasts suggest that GDP growth in 4Q25 will be slightly higher than in 3Q25. We still assume that GDP growth will be around 3.5% YoY in 2025. We had expected 2026 growth to be similar to 2025, but given the strong end to this year, we are now expecting growth to fall within the 3.5-4.0% range.

The key will be maintaining consumption growth and improving investment, linked to the implementation of projects under the National Recovery Plan (KPO), which will formally close next year, although it may still boost investment and consumption in early 2027. This is the main difference between our forecasts and the consensus. We assume that some KPO projects will still be carried out in 2027, which will help to "smooth out" the public investment boom before the final deadline for fund disbursement at the end of 2026.

Inflation should remain low and there is still room for cutting rates to 3-3.50% in 2026

We assume that better economic conditions will be accompanied by a further decline in inflation. At present, we do not see any pressure from core goods prices (cheap imports from China), commodity prices (weak US dollar / the possible lifting of sanctions on Russia) or food, and core inflation should continue to fall, partly thanks to slowing wage growth.

Ahead lies a period of solid growth with an economy balanced externally (low current account deficit) and internally (inflation close to target). A high budget deficit is not creating demand pressure due to a still high savings rate and significant contribution from defence imports. What needs adjustment is the overly expansionary fiscal policy. It would be desirable to increase the role of the private sector in generating investment.

Poland's economy continues to surprise, growing faster than most of the EU, yet it stands a good chance of maintaining low inflation in 2026 and further interest rate cuts.

Source: ING

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Adam

Commodity

Oil prices rose 2% on Monday as the Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted exports after a major drone attack and U.S.-Venezuela tensions raised concerns about supply, while OPEC+ agreed to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026.

Brent crude futures advanced $1.26, or 2.02%, to $63.64 a barrel by 0953 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.27, or 2.17%, to $59.82.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which carries 1% of global oil, on Saturday said it halted operations after a mooring at its Russian terminal on the Black Sea was damaged by a Ukrainian drone. Chevron, a CPC shareholder, said late on Sunday that loadings were continuing at the Russian port of Novorossiysk.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies initially agreed on a pause in early November, slowing a push to regain market share with looming fears of a supply glut.

LSEG senior analyst Anh Pham said the market was reacting positively to the news.

"For some time, the narrative has centred on an oil glut, so OPEC+’s decision to maintain its production target provided some relief and helped stabilise expectations for supply growth in the coming months."

Brent and WTI crude futures settled lower on Friday for the fourth straight month, their longest losing streak since 2023, as expectations for higher global supply weighed on prices.

On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump said "the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela" should be considered closed, sparking fresh uncertainty in the oil market, as the South American nation is a major producer.

Trump on Sunday said he had spoken to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro but did not give details. He also did not expand on his airspace comments or say whether they signalled coming military strikes.

"Don't read anything into it," Trump said.

In a client note, ING analysts wrote that "supply risks increase following additional Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and an escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela."

In Europe, increasing uncertainty around a Russia-Ukraine peace deal reversed the bearish sentiment of the past two weeks, when an agreement looked closer and raised the prospect of large volumes of Russian oil flooding the market.

Source: reuters

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Winkelmann

Political

Economic

Forex

Key Takeaways:

· Kevin Hassett shows interest in Fed Chair position.

· Nominations influence monetary policies.

· Hassett favors immediate interest rate cuts.

Kevin Hassett, a potential nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, advocates for lower interest rates. His stance signals a shift in U.S. monetary policy, affecting financial markets and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum by influencing borrowing costs and liquidity.

Hassett's consideration for the Federal Reserve Chair role underscores potential shifts toward accommodating monetary policies. This could influence markets, where lower rates often prompt investment in higher-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Kevin Hassett, White House National Economic Council Director, remains a close Trump ally, favoring lower interest rates. His perspective contrasts with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's approach. Trump indicated Hassett as a top candidate amid dissatisfaction with Powell.

"I would cut interest rates immediately if I were Fed chair." - Kevin Hassett, Fox News

Hassett's potential appointment may affect macroeconomic conditions, including U.S. Treasury markets. Lower borrowing costs and increased liquidity can impact risk assets, including digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, although no immediate crypto market reactions have been observed.

Historically, Fed Chair selections toward looser monetary policy benefit risk assets. Though the direct effect on cryptocurrencies is often delayed, market anticipation can preemptively influence trading volumes. This context sets a precedent for Hassett's potential impact.

The nomination process, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, seeks a balance between market trust and presidential preferences. The broader implications of Hassett's monetary stance—cutting rates—could foster investment in growth-oriented sectors, including tech and crypto.

Potential outcomes include shifts in financial, regulatory, and technological environments. Historical trends suggest supportive monetary environments boost asset investment. Hassett's favor for rate cuts aligns with Trump's economic priorities, adding complexity to global financial dynamics.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Adam

Forex

The yen rose on Monday, boosted by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who suggested a December rate hike may be on the table, while the dollar struggled as investors ramped up bets of a U.S. rate cut this month.

Ueda said on Monday the central bank will consider the "pros and cons" of raising interest rates at its next policy meeting in December, offering the strongest hint so far that a hike may materialise this month.

He subsequently said in a press conference that he will elaborate more on the central bank's future rate hike path once rates are raised to 0.75%, adding that December's policy decision will take into account wage information and other data.

That helped a rally in the Japanese currency , leaving the dollar down 0.4% at 155.51 yen.

"It seems to be game-prep ahead of a potential rate hike, making a hike at the December or January meeting highly plausible," said OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong, who expects the BOJ to raise rates in December.

"But the question is if this is one hike and another long wait. A yen recovery would likely need the BOJ to follow through with stronger guidance."

Traders have priced in a growing chance of a December hike from the BOJ, with the yen's slide to 10-month lows last month adding to the case for raising rates.

"The comments send the strongest signal yet the BOJ is preparing to resume rate hikes this month in line with our forecast. Market participants have remained wary over pricing in an earlier rate hike given uncertainty over whether the government would push back against it," MUFG currency strategist Lee Hardman said.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Sunday that recent erratic swings in the foreign exchange market and rapid yen weakening are "clearly not driven by fundamentals".

DOLLAR DOWNBEAT

In the broader market, the dollar eased as investors braced for a pivotal month that could bring the Fed's final rate cut of the year and the confirmation of a dovish successor to Chair Jerome Powell.

The euro rose to a two-week high of $1.16155, while sterling was down 0.2% at $1.3211, having logged its best week in over three months in a relief rally following British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' budget reveal.

Traders are now pricing in an 87% chance the Fed will cut by 25 basis points when it meets next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

What is less clear cut is what happens after December. Money markets right now show very little chance of another cut much before the spring and some analysts believe December might even yield a "hawkish cut" - trader-speak for a cut accompanied by indications from policymakers that another near-term fall in borrowing costs may not be forthcoming.

Either way, with investors assuming a December cut is close to a done deal, alongside a report that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett could be the next Fed chair, the dollar is struggling, having clocked its worst weekly performance against a basket of major currencies in four months last week.

"With December FOMC now closer to fully pricing a 25bp cut, we think the market will increasingly focus on the pricing of subsequent meetings," economists at Goldman Sachs said in a note.

"Division on the committee is restraining more dovish pricing, but with a large amount of labor market data due before the January meeting we think too little is priced in Q1."

Trading on the foreign exchange market was back to normal on Monday, following an hours-long outage at the world's largest exchange operator CME Group last week, which upended trading across stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies.

Bitcoin slid 5.7% to $85,949, while ether fell 6.4% to $2,828.41.

Source: reuters

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

Manufacturing was weak in Europe and Asia's biggest economies in November, business surveys showed on Monday, as subdued domestic demand and tariff uncertainties weighed.

The euro zone, China and Japan all saw manufacturing activity contract last month although there were bright spots for Britain and economies in Southeast Asia, which saw growth, purchasing managers' surveys showed.

Euro zone manufacturing activity slipped back into contraction territory last month, its purchasing managers' index (PMI) showed, and Germany's dominant manufacturing sector experienced a marked deterioration in business conditions.

While weakening demand in the euro zone forced firms to cut jobs at the quickest rate in seven months, in Germany new orders fell at the fastest rate in 10 months.

"Current conditions remain at best subdued, with output trending down from an already weak level, reflecting the combination of headwinds faced by the manufacturing sector, including tariffs, heightened Chinese competition and general economic uncertainty," noted Leo Barincou, senior economist at Oxford Economics.

"The persistent industrial slump appears to be putting pressure on headcount, with firms shedding jobs at the fastest pace since April. Meanwhile, weak demand means that firms were unable to transmit the rise in input costs to their selling prices."

In China, the world's largest manufacturer, factory activity slipped back into a slight contraction, a private-sector PMI showed, a day after Beijing's official measure showed activity falling for the eighth consecutive month albeit at a slower pace.

"Container throughput at Chinese ports was little changed last month compared to October. To the extent that demand did improve, it didn't do much to support production amid already high inventory levels - the output component dropped to a four-month low," said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

"And while the output price component edged up slightly, it stayed at a low level, pointing to persistent deflationary pressures."

MANUFACTURING PICKS UP IN BRITAIN

Among major European economies, France's manufacturing sector contracted further in November as a drop in production and slower demand for goods hit the sector.

S&P Global's survey said demand for French goods had continued to weaken in November, extending the current sequence of declining factory orders to three-and-a-half years.

Italy's manufacturing sector crept back into growth territory in November, a positive sign for the country's struggling economy.

In Britain, outside the European Union, the manufacturing sector recorded its first increase in activity since September 2024 last month, bolstered by improved domestic demand and less of a slowdown in orders from overseas.

Meanwhile, Asia's other manufacturing powerhouses also struggled with sluggish demand in November, extending declines in factory activity, as progress in U.S. trade negotiations failed to translate into a significant recovery in orders.

Japan's PMI showed new orders continued to decline, stretching the downturn to two-and-a-half years.

Across Asia this year, businesses in major exporting nations have been scrambling to navigate the uncertainty created by U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs.

While Trump's trade deals with countries like Japan and South Korea and lowered tensions with China have given firms some confidence, many are still adjusting to the new U.S. trade reality.

South Korea's factory activity contracted for a second month in November. However, separate data showed Korean exports rose in November for a sixth consecutive month, beating market expectations, as chip sales hit a record on strong technology demand while autos also jumped after a U.S. trade deal.

Taiwan's PMI showed factory activity continued to fall, but at a slower pace.

Elsewhere in Asia, emerging market manufacturers remained outperformers with Indonesia and Vietnam both reporting brisk growth in factory activity and Malaysia swinging back to growth.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Economic

MARKET WRAPS Stocks:

European shares were down on Monday as investors' attention turned to the upcoming Federal Reserve's rate decision with key data expected to be released this week.

The ISM's manufacturing survey will be released at 1500 GMT today followed by the ISM services report on Wednesday. Other data this week include the ADP's private payrolls report on Wednesday.

"Markets will keep a close eye on this week's releases in light of the still uncertain rate decision [by the Federal Reserve]," Danske Bank said.

Money markets currently price in a 94% probability of a 25bp rate cut in December, according to LSEG.

Investors will also be especially attentive to any news of Trump's nominee for Fed chair. Trump on Sunday declined to confirm that his nomination to replace Jerome Powell will be Kevin Hassett, current director of the National Economic Council.

As December kicked off, investors shifted away from risky assets after Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda strengthened expectations for another increase in interest rates later this month.

Shares on the Move

U.K.-listed miners start the new month on the front foot due to continued precious-metals momentum . U.K. miners have been buoyed by precious metals this year, with Fresnillo's share price more-than quadrupling in the year to date.

Stocks to Watch

Richemont can aim for an earnings boost ahead from higher prices and strong sales , Deutsche Bank said. The Cartier owner booked a sharp increase in sales for its most recent quarter, shrugging off lingering drags on the luxury-goods industry.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures were trading down as December got under way, with contracts tied to the Nasdaq-100 leading declines.

More retailers, including dollar stores, are due to post earnings this week, as is cloud-software pioneer Salesforce.

Forex:

The euro rose to a two-week high against a weaker dollar.

The currency's moves should remain contained even after November eurozone inflation data are released Tuesday, Commerzbank said.

The dollar fell ahead of U.S. economic data that could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cutting cycle.

Sterling fell as it remains "highly sensitive" to political developments in the U.K. , Tickmill Group said.

"The fallout from the U.K. Budget continues as the Office for Budget Responsibility prepares to release its report today on the early publication of the Economic and Fiscal Outlook," it added.

Bonds:

10-year Bund yields rose in opening trade, tracking Treasury yields. Focus is on headwinds from the Bank of Japan, where rate increases look more likely , Commerzbank Research said.

The outperformance of eurozone peripheral government bonds was set to remain the dominant theme in the eurozone bond market for 2026, supported by stronger fundamentals, improving ratings and resilient flows, Societe Generale said.

Treasury yields rose in early trade as trading resumes after Thanksgiving and a short session last week, awaiting new data to trade on.

The Treasury was expected to postpone testing investor appetite for longer duration debt , Societe Generale said.

"We expect 2026 to be defined by elevated T-bill issuance and steady coupon supply, driven by persistent large deficits and volatile tariff revenues."

Fed rate cuts are seen driving Treasury yields lower by end-2026, the bank said.

Energy:

Oil prices climbed after OPEC+ members decided to leave output steady and as traders monitor geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and Venezuela.

OPEC+'s decision to assess the maximum sustainable production capacity of members will likely stir tensions within the group, according to ING.

Metals:

Gold prices rose in early trading on a softer dollar and renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further this year.

Precious metals are likely supported by a combination of erratic trading hours on the CME and continued Fed dovishness , Sucden Financial said.

Copper

Copper gained. The market narrative around tightening copper supply is becoming increasingly prevalent, according to Sucden Financial.

Rare Earths

UBS highlighted some reasons why investors shouldn't fret too much about a potential oversupply of rare-earth oxides.

The bank said it was "sympathetic to concerns about oversupply" and acknowledged "a large range of outcomes remained possible."

Iron

Iron ore prices were higher in early trade, but analysts remain bearish on the black metal in the near term. Iron ore's supply-demand dynamics haven't improved , Baocheng Futures said.

EMEA HEADLINES

Airbus Shares Fall After Urgent Fixes Needed on Thousands of A320 Aircraft

Airbus shares fell after thousands of the manufacturer's planes required urgent fixes over the weekend to allow them to fly again.

Shares were 2.4% lower in early European trade Monday.

TotalEnergies to Sell Stake in Nigeria Projects to Chevron

TotalEnergies said it would sell a stake in two oil-and-gas exploration projects offshore Nigeria to U.S. peer Chevron.

Star Deep Water Petroleum, a Chevron subsidiary, will take a 40% stake in the PPL 2000 and 2001 licences located in the West Delta basin, which were awarded to a consortium of TotalEnergies and Nigeria's South Atlantic Petroleum, the French energy major said Monday.

After 'Productive' Meeting With Ukrainian Negotiators in Florida, U.S. Officials Head to Russia

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla.-U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators said Sunday's meeting on ending the war with Russia-which included talks on possible elections, land swaps and security guarantees-was productive, and top U.S. envoys will head to Moscow on Monday for further discussions.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner met with Ukrainian counterparts for more than four hours. Rubio said they made progress, adding that the negotiations are complex.

Vivendi Takeover by Bollore Less Likely After Court Rules in Favor of Billionaire

A French court overturned a ruling that the family of Vincent Bollore had de facto control of Vivendi, quashing investor hopes that the billionaire might be forced into a full takeover of the media group following its four-way spinoff last year.

The country's highest court said Friday that a lower appeals court had made an error in ruling that the family's namesake Bollore holding company exerted de facto control over Vivendi.

GLOBAL NEWS

Rate Hikes Wouldn't Put Brakes on Japan's Economy, BOJ's Ueda Says

NAGOYA, Japan-The Bank of Japan will thoroughly discuss the possibility of an interest-rate increase at its coming meeting, Gov. Kazuo Ueda said, stoking hopes that it will resume monetary tightening this year.

Now that Tokyo's trade agreement with the Trump administration has reduced external risks, the BOJ governor said the central bank will pay special attention to the outlook for wage increases in Japan next year.

Bitcoin Falls as Prospect of Rate Rise in Japan Spooks Investors

Bitcoin fell sharply Monday as investors shunned risky assets after Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda strengthened expectations for another increase in interest rates later this month.

The move came against a backdrop of concerns about an overvaluation of tech stocks and other risky assets.

Wall Street Gets Its Groove Back for December. Not Everybody Is Feelin' It.

Wall Street will enter the home stretch of a challenging year in an upbeat mood, having reversed one of the worst November performances in more than a decade with the best week of gains in nearly six months.

A variety of tailwinds appear poised to help stocks power ahead, potentially offsetting risks such as a potential Supreme Court ruling that could disrupt expectations regarding tariffs and increasing caution among retail investors.

Congress Opens Inquiries After Report That U.S. Targeted Boat-Strike Survivors

Congress launched inquiries and lawmakers from both parties raised the possibility of war crimes after a report that the U.S. targeted survivors of a strike on an alleged drug boat.

The Republican-led armed-services committees in the House and Senate said this weekend they are opening bipartisan inquiries, after the Washington Post reported on a Sept. 2 attack on a boat in the Caribbean. In that attack, the Post said, a second strike was ordered to kill two survivors in the water.

After 'Productive' Meeting With Ukrainian Negotiators in Florida, U.S. Officials Head to Russia

How Venezuelan Gangs and African Jihadists Are Flooding Europe With Cocaine

Venezuela has become a major launchpad for huge volumes of cocaine shipped to West Africa, where jihadists are helping traffic it to Europe in record quantities.

Corrupt military officers and drug gangs smuggle shipments by light aircraft, fishing boats, semi-submersible vessels and freighters heading east, international law-enforcement officials have said publicly. The cocaine flows to West Africa, where an informal network of jihadist-linked smugglers and their allies then move the drug north to feed high and rising demand in Europe.

Source: morningstar

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Silver Surges to New Heights as Market Tightness Deepens

Silver continued its blistering rally at the start of December 2025, surging as high as $57.86 per ounce marking its sixth straight day of gains and cementing a year-to-date doubling in price. The white metal outpaced gold, which rose around 60% during the same period, highlighting silver’s newfound leadership in the precious metals complex.

This sustained upward momentum follows a near 6% spike on Friday and has been fueled by a combination of physical supply constraints, investor rotation away from gold, and intensifying speculative positioning.

Global Shortage Persists Despite London Inflows

One of the key drivers behind the surge is a lingering physical shortage in key trading hubs. Although a record inflow of silver entered London in October to ease the historic squeeze, this redistribution has drained supplies from other regions. Most notably, inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen to their lowest levels in nearly a decade, while the cost to borrow silver over one month remains elevated signaling persistent tightness in the global lending market.

According to Daniel Hynes of ANZ Group Holdings, the aftershocks of the London squeeze are still rippling through the system. Investors, observing gold's temporary consolidation, have increasingly turned their focus to silver as a catch-up trade.

Rate Cut Expectations Fuel Momentum in Non-Yielding Assets

Another powerful catalyst is rising market confidence in a December rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Following dovish remarks from Fed officials and delayed economic data caused by a prolonged government shutdown, traders are now fully pricing in a quarter-point reduction. Lower interest rates tend to benefit non-yielding assets like silver and gold, which do not offer coupon payments but gain appeal as the opportunity cost of holding them declines.

David Wilson of BNP Paribas noted that silver’s recent gains have been heavily speculative, with fast money flows chasing breakout momentum. He emphasized that the gold-silver ratio a key valuation metric has now tightened to around 70, suggesting that silver is becoming relatively expensive compared to gold. This ratio, which reflects how many ounces of silver are required to buy one ounce of gold, is closely watched for signals of overvaluation or mean-reversion potential.

Tariff Uncertainty and Strategic Mineral Status Add New Tailwind

In a development that may further amplify scarcity fears, silver was recently added to the U.S. Geological Survey’s list of critical minerals. This designation has raised speculation about potential U.S. import tariffs on silver, which could lead to price premiums domestically and discourage overseas shipments. While no policy action has been taken yet, the regulatory overhang is increasing hesitancy among traders to release physical stockpiles abroad.

This uncertainty compounds the existing supply tightness and may force more trading activity to remain within the U.S., reinforcing elevated domestic prices and limiting global market liquidity.

Investor Flows and Mining Stocks Reflect Growing Enthusiasm

Reflecting the bullish sentiment, physically backed silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw accelerated inflows throughout November. Investors who took profits during the last price peak in October have returned aggressively, drawn by a mix of fundamental constraints and macro-driven tailwinds.

Mining equities have also benefited. In Australia, Sun Silver Ltd. jumped as much as 21%, Silver Mines Ltd. rose nearly 13%, and Hong Kong-listed China Silver Group gained 14% before trimming some of its advance. These moves suggest rising investor confidence in supply-side beneficiaries of the current rally.

Silver Enters 2026 With Unmatched Momentum

Silver’s record-setting performance is being driven by a powerful convergence of factors: global supply deficits, central bank policy expectations, and increased recognition of its strategic importance in clean energy and industry. As speculative money joins long-term institutional demand, the rally has become self-reinforcing, even amid fears of valuation excess.

With the gold-silver ratio approaching multi-year lows, and the threat of U.S. tariffs looming, the path forward for silver may be volatile but for now, the market’s appetite shows no signs of slowing. If the Fed confirms a rate cut in December, silver could enter 2026 not just as a hedge, but as a centerpiece of commodity portfolios.