Highest hurdle taken, Federal Council will be next

Implications for Europe

Cyclical rebound coming up but more is needed to restore competitiveness

Source:ING

XAU/USD quotes continue to move within the development of growth and a bullish channel. At the time of publication of the forecast, the price of Gold for today is 3019 Dollars per Troy Ounce. Moving averages indicate the presence of a short-term bullish trend. Prices have broken through the area between the signal lines upwards, which indicates pressure from asset buyers and potential continuation of growth from current levels. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to develop a fall and a test of the support level near the 3005 area. From where we should expect an upward rebound and continued growth in the price of Gold with a potential target above the level of 3155.

GOLD Forecast and Analysis for March 19, 2025

An additional signal in favor of the growth of XAU/USD quotes will be a test of the bullish trend line on the relative strength indicator (RSI indicator). The second signal will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The cancellation of the option to increase prices for Gold on March 19, 2025 will be a fall in prices and a breakout of the 2975 level. This will indicate a breakout of the support area and a continuation of the fall in asset quotes to the area below the 2945 level. It is worth expecting an acceleration in the growth of XAU/USD quotes with a breakout of the resistance area and a price close above the 3045 level.

GOLD Forecast and Analysis for March 19, 2025 suggests an attempt to develop a bearish price correction and test the support area near the 3005 level. Further, the continuation of the growth of non-ferrous metal quotes with a target above the 3155 level. The cancellation of the option to increase prices for Gold will be a fall in the value of the asset on the markets and a breakout of the 2975 level. This will indicate a continuation of the decline in the price of Gold with a potential target below the 2945 mark.

Source: forex24.pro

Israel launched overnight airstrikes across Gaza that Hamas said killed hundreds of people, shattering a nearly two-month ceasefire with the Palestinian group.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Tuesday to act “with increasing military strength,” saying Hamas had repeatedly refused to release its remaining hostages. The move brought to an abrupt end any immediate hope the truce would be extended into a second phase, initially slated for the start of this month.

As well as freeing the roughly 60 captives still in Gaza, Israel wants Hamas to disarm and step down from power in the territory. The Iran-backed group, designated a terrorist organization by the US and many other countries, had been calling for Israeli troops to withdraw.

Hamas said at least 404 people have been killed while many others are missing since the airstrikes began.

The Gaza operation, along with others overnight by Israel on Lebanon and Syria and US attacks on the Houthis in Yemen since Saturday, have ended the relative calm in the Middle East in recent weeks.

Gold and oil prices have risen. The former increased to a fresh all-time high, while Brent crude is up about 2.1% to $72.04 a barrel in the past two days, heading for its best week since early-January. The Israeli shekel weakened 0.7% as of 12:23 p.m. local time, the worst performer in Bloomberg’s basket of 31 ‘expanded major’ currencies.

The Gaza bombardment is the fiercest since a truce brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the US started in January. It officially ended in early March — with Hamas having released around 35 hostages and Israel freeing more than 1,000 imprisoned Palestinians. There was no official extension of the deal as the warring sides disagreed on the way forward during talks through the mediators.

Israel had warned that it could restart military operations if Hamas didn’t agree to release more hostages, of which it believes around 25 are alive.

After the strikes began, Hamas said Netanyahu had decided to “overturn the ceasefire agreement, putting the captives in Gaza at an unknown fate.” The group earlier accused Israel of failing to meet its commitments under the truce, citing the Netanyahu government’s decision to stop aid supplies getting into Gaza.

Large swathes of the Palestinian territory have been destroyed in the 17 months of war, with the vast majority of its 2 million population displaced. More than 48,000 people have been killed, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health authority.

Source: Yahoo Finance

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $83,030, down 14.79% over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Bitcoin is down 14.89% over the past month. Source: CoinMarketCap

“At this stage of the cycle, the lower bound of the historical range should be around $250,000,” Knitowski said in a March 17 X post.

Source: Alan Knitowski

Source: Cointelegraph

Respondents to the March CNBC Fed Survey have raised the risk of recession to the highest level in six months, cut their growth forecast for 2025 and raised their inflation outlook.

Much of the change appears to stem from concern over fiscal policies from the Trump administration, especially tariffs, which are now seen by them as the top threat to the US economy, replacing inflation. The outlook for the S&P 500 declined for the first time since September.

The 32 survey respondents, who include fund managers, strategists and analysts, raised the probability of recession to 36% from 23% in January. The January number had dropped to a three-year low and looked to have reflected initial optimism following the election of President Trump.  But like many consumer and business surveys, the recession probability now shows considerable concern about the outlook.

"We've had an abundance of discussions with investors who are increasingly concerned the Trump agenda has gone off the rails due to trade policy," said Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics. "Consequently, the economic risks of something more insidious than a soft patch are growing."

"The degree of policy volatility is unprecedented,'' said John Donaldson, director of fixed income at Haverford Trust.

The average GDP forecast for 2025 declined to 1.7% from 2.4%, a sharp markdown that ended consecutive increases in the three prior surveys dating back to September. GDP is forecast to bounced back to 2.1% in 2026, in line with prior forecasts.

"The risks to consumers' spending are skewed to the downside," said Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research. "Alongside a frozen housing market and less spending across state and local governments, there is meaningful downside to current estimates of 2025 GDP."

Fed rate cut outlook

Most continue to believe the Fed will cut rates at least twice and won't hike rates, even if faced with persistently higher prices and weaker growth. Three-quarters forecast two or more quarter-point cuts this year. Part of the reason is that two-thirds believe that tariffs will result in one-time price hikes rather than a broader outbreak of inflation. But the policy uncertainty has created a wider range of views on the Fed than normal with 19% believing the Fed won't cut at all.

Still, higher tariffs and weaker growth are a dilemma for the Fed.

"Powell is really stuck here because of the tariff overhang," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer, Bleakley Financial Group. "If he gets more worried about growth because of them and cuts rates as unemployment rises but then Trump removes all the tariffs, he's jumped the gun."

More than 70% of respondents believe tariffs are bad for inflation, jobs and growth. 34% say tariffs will decrease US manufacturing with 22% saying they will result in no change. Thirty-seven percent of respondents believe tariffs will end up in greater manufacturing output. More than 70% believe the DOGE effort to reduce government employment is bad for growth and jobs but will be modestly deflationary.

"A global trade war, haphazard DOGE cuts to government jobs and funding, aggressive immigrant deportations, and dysfunction in DC threaten to push what was an exceptionally performing economy into recession," said Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody's Analytics.

Source: CNBC

Central bank meetings in Japan, the U.S., Britain, Sweden and Switzerland round out the week.

Since the start of the year, Hong Kong's Hang Seng has surged while S&P 500 has struggled.

Source: Reuters