FX Daily: Tentative Calm Fuels Dollar Rebound

ING

Economic

Forex

Political

Summary:

FX volatility has moderated at the start of this week, with US equities extending the rebound on eased credit market concerns.

USD: Credit concerns keep easing

FX volatility has moderated at the start of this week, with US equities extending the rebound on eased credit market concerns. Zions Bank’s earnings report was solid outside of the losses linked to fraud, even though scrutiny remains high on any other signs of credit stress in the system.The dollar has shaken up last week’s banking concerns and is now only 0.7% off its 10 October high. Given the strict link between Fed easing expectations and credit market sentiment at this stage, the rebound is being largely underpinned by a hawkish repricing in the USD OIS curve, with the two-year rate rising 7bp yesterday.

Not much is moving on US-China trade tensions ahead of the end-of-month scheduled meeting between Trump and Xi. Yesterday, the US signed a deal with Australia to access its rare earth reserves, which might give the US slightly stronger leverage in negotiations with Beijing. But all this is playing a very secondary role for FX at the moment, with the approach seemingly being a wait-and-see one mixed with some cautious optimism that Trump will get a deal out of China.

Elsewhere, the yen is emerging as an underperformer this week. That appears more related to the unwinding of safe-haven JPY positions as US market concerns ease, and much more marginally due to political events in Japan. This morning, Sanae Takaichi was confirmed as prime minister by the parliament, four votes clear of the majority needed. That shows for the moment that she has the support of enough policymakers outside of her LDP-Ishin coalition, which is two votes short of a parliamentary majority. The nature of the minority government means Takaichi will find it hard to implement aggressive fiscal expansion, and market pricing for the BoJ (15bp by year-end) shows high uncertainty about the effective spending/debt implications of the new leadership. In our view, there is still a possibility of a 30 October hike (4bp priced in), also due to yen weakness. If not, December looks quite likely in our view. Unless the BoJ moves in October or USD comes under new idiosyncratic pressure, USD/JPY may stay above 150.0 as some debt concerns and carry funding continue to weigh on the yen.

EUR: Eyes back on 1.160

EUR/USD remains almost entirely driven by US credit/equity sentiment: here, further stabilisation could take EUR/USD all the way to 1.160. Levels below that will be harder to justify unless the US CPI on Friday comes in hotter than expected.Meanwhile, the 10-year OAT-Bund spread widened back to almost 80bp yesterday morning before settling at 78bp. It’s a signal that markets were surprised by S&P’s unscheduled downgrade on Friday, but also that political stability is so far successfully sweetening the pill of budgetary issues for investors.

On the ECB front, we heard from two hawks yesterday: Austria’s Schnabel and Germany’s Nagel. Nothing new on rates – as expected – but Schnabel did stress the importance of strengthening the international role of the euro. The ongoing “global euro” campaign by the ECB remains, however, very much tied to any improvements in politically-driven capital market integration, and it seems unlikely to result in major short-term spot appreciation barring another USD confidence crisis. Incidentally, not all the Governing Council may be entirely comfortable with an even stronger euro, even if direct comments on FX have been rather rare of late.

One final theme for the euro amid data scarcity: Ukraine-Russia truce speculation, after reports over the weekend about Trump pushing harder for Ukraine to accept Russia’s territorial conditions for peace ahead of a potential three-way (Trump, Putin, Zelenskiy) summit in Budapest in the coming weeks. Even in a scenario where peace conditions are suboptimal for Ukraine, the euro (and even more, higher beta European currencies) could get a decent boost should a truce be agreed on in the coming weeks. For now, FX markets have kept the Ukraine story rather sidelined, and will probably require some tangible progress on peace negotiations to actively trade it.

CAD: Inflation figures shouldn't change the picture

Canada releases inflation figures for September today. Headline CPI should have rebounded above 2.0%, but that won’t matter too much for the Bank of Canada as long as core measures (trim and median) remain anchored around 3.0%. Anyway, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has been firmly focused on growth and job risks associated with tariffs, and much less on inflation.

Despite stronger-than-expected jobs data earlier in October, markets are pricing in 19bp of easing ahead of next week’s BoC meeting. The BoC’s Business Outlook Survey for the third quarter (published yesterday) offered more evidence of prolonged drag from US tariffs, plenty of uncertainty leading to slow investments and muted hiring intentions. The BoC echoes a lot of business concerns included in its survey when it cut rates when it cut rates in September. It would need to find a compelling story for signs of resilience or inflation concerns to stay on hold on 29 October.

CAD remains our least favourite G10 currency. Higher chances of an October cut and little room for the BoC to signal the end of the cycle just yet can keep eroding CAD’s carry and maintain a risk premium on the loonie based on economic/tariff uncertainty. We still expect USD weakness to take USD/CAD back below 1.40 and to September levels before year-end, but in the crosses, we see little upside for the loonie.

HUF: Hawkish NBH and promise of Ukraine deal support further FX gains

The National Bank of Hungary will very likely leave rates unchanged at 6.50% today, in line with expectations. Today's meeting will not be so much about rates but rather about forward guidance. On the one hand, inflation remains above the tolerance band, and government measures are cutting a significant part (1.5pp). On the other hand, the economy is weak and continues to surprise downwards. Despite some political noise, we believe that the central bank will remain hawkish and the hawkish tone from previous meetings will be confirmed today.

The market is pricing in roughly one full cut by the end of March 2026 with a high probability for February as well. However, overall, the market expects only 80bp of rate cuts and the priced terminal rate has returned to 5.70%, well above our forecast. Although we expect a hawkish stance today, the risk for the market is more on the dovish side if we take into account this market pricing. If the central bank were to indicate a dovish shift, the market would certainly go for more rate cuts. However, we believe this will come later, given the weaker inflation figures in Q1 next year.

For now, at the same time, HUF is also supported by some expectations regarding progress in the ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, overall, we are bullish on HUF now, and we can probably test the current lows at 388 EUR/HUF.

Source: ING

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Rising Tariffs Create Mounting Pressure on U.S. Manufacturing Sector

Gerik

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Persistent Economic Strain from Trade Barriers

Recent economic signals from the United States suggest that the aggressive tariff regime enacted during President Donald Trump's second term is failing to deliver its intended goal of reshoring production. Instead of reviving domestic manufacturing, the tariffs have created significant headwinds for U.S. businesses. According to a closely watched survey of American manufacturers, the sector has contracted for six consecutive months. Despite isolated signs of recovery, the overall trend reflects declining business confidence due to both direct cost impacts and broader uncertainty over trade policy directions.

Firms across various manufacturing sub-sectors have reported that higher input prices stemming from import tariffs on raw materials such as metals and wood have made it increasingly difficult to justify local production. One manufacturer in electronics noted that the uncertainty surrounding future tariff adjustments has complicated production planning and scheduling, raising internal costs and delaying strategic decisions. Economists Shannon Grein and Tim Quinlan from Wells Fargo highlight that beyond the cost burdens, the inability to predict tariff shifts has become an even more formidable barrier to business operations.

Contradictory Effects of the "Made in USA" Push

While the administration aimed to stimulate domestic job creation through import substitution, the empirical outcome indicates otherwise. A significant number of companies have either paused capital investments or scaled back hiring efforts, directly citing trade policy unpredictability. One surveyed firm in the electrical appliances industry revealed that despite intentions to relocate production back to the U.S., tariff-imposed cost increases rendered such plans economically unviable. As a result, the company had to lay off 15% of its skilled American workforce undermining the administration’s narrative around employment growth.

Among the most burdensome measures were tariffs reaching 50% on select imports from India. Meanwhile, broader tariffs on essential components many of which are not manufactured domestically continue to disrupt production chains. The correlation between these policies and declining manufacturing output is not merely coincidental. Although not every decline can be attributed causally to the tariffs alone, the simultaneity of reduced output and increased trade costs suggests a strong interdependent dynamic that warrants closer economic scrutiny.

Judicial Review Offers a Glimmer of Relief

Looking forward, the legal landscape might offer partial reprieve. Recent court rulings have deemed some retaliatory tariffs unlawful, introducing the possibility of their reversal. Chief Economist Scott Anderson of BMO suggests that if these rulings are upheld and certain tariffs are lifted, manufacturers could regain competitiveness and reinvigorate investment. However, such optimism remains conditional and does not negate the systemic damage already inflicted.

The current trajectory implies that without significant recalibration of trade strategy, U.S. manufacturers will continue to operate under unfavorable conditions. Although the original intention behind the tariffs was to revitalize domestic industry, the outcomes reflect more friction than stimulus. With global supply chains remaining vital, a nuanced approach balancing protection and participation may better serve long-term industrial resilience.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Part 1: What Is Pepe Coin?

The Origin and Concept Behind PEPE

PEPE Coin was launched in April 2023 as a tribute to the popular internet meme “Pepe the Frog.” It aimed to channel meme culture into a community-first token with no presale and no team allocation. As traders debated whether can PEPE reach 1 dollar or even can PEPE coin reach $1 dollar, the token rapidly gained traction as a humor-driven speculation vehicle.

How PEPE Became a Viral Meme Token

Community-Driven Growth: Early adopters amplified PEPE across Twitter (X), Reddit, and Telegram.
Relatable Meme Identity: Branding resonated with internet-native audiences.
Low Entry Price: Psychological appeal of holding millions of tokens for a small outlay.
Media Amplification: Headlines like “can PEPE ever reach 1 dollar?” expanded visibility.

Token Supply, Distribution, and Market Position

PEPE’s total supply is 420.69 trillion tokens, with the majority placed in liquidity pools and the remainder reserved for listings, bridges, and potential burns. This massive supply underpins why questions such as can PEPE reach 1 dollar in 2025 are mathematically challenging.

Metric	Details
Total Supply	420.69 trillion PEPE
Circulating Supply (approx.)	~420 trillion
Network	Ethereum (ERC-20)
Launch	April 2023

What Makes PEPE Different from Other Meme Coins (DOGE, SHIB, BONK)

Feature	PEPE	DOGE	SHIB	BONK
Blockchain	Ethereum (ERC-20)	Bitcoin fork	Ethereum	Solana
Supply Type	Fixed 420.69T	Inflationary	Deflationary	Deflationary
Utility	Meme & community	Payments & meme	DeFi & NFTs	Meme & Solana ecosystem

PEPE’s strength lies in cultural identity and viral network effects; whether pepe can reach 1 dollar depends on converting that momentum into lasting demand.

Part 2: Current Market Price and Historical Trends

PEPE’s Launch and Early Price Movements

At launch in April 2023, PEPE traded near $0.00000005 and surged over 5,000% within weeks on DEX liquidity and social buzz.

Period	Approx. Price (USD)	Event Highlight
April 2023 (Launch)	$0.00000005	Official debut; early community formation
May 2023	$0.0000017	Uniswap volume spike; +5,000% in two weeks
Late 2023	$0.0000015–$0.0000020	Binance listing; massive trading volumes
2024–Early 2025	$0.0000025–$0.0000040	Meme season revival; renewed attention

These swings kept retail interest high and fueled questions like can PEPE coin reach 1 dollar.

Major Milestones and Exchange Listings

April 2023: Launch and Uniswap debut; rapid DEX liquidity.
May 2023: Added to Binance; global exposure and liquidity jump.
Late 2023: Listings on OKX, Bitget, Bybit expanded access.
2024: Entered top-100 by market cap; broader media coverage.

Investor Sentiment and Social Media Influence

Community Optimism: DOGE/SHIB precedents keep hopes alive.
Influencer Impact: Viral posts can trigger short, sharp rallies.
Volatility Concern: Hype-driven spikes often retrace quickly.
Speculative Cycles: Each upswing renews “can pepe reach 1 dollar” debates.

Key Factors That Will Influence PEPE Coin’s Price

Utility and Ecosystem Development

Integrations with DeFi, staking, or NFT marketplaces could add organic demand and lend more substance to claims like pepe coin can reach 1 dollar.

Community Engagement and Hype Cycles

Giveaways, contests, and creative campaigns sustain attention; without engagement, interest fades and price momentum stalls.

Broader Crypto Market Trends

Risk-on bull phases amplify meme coins; bear markets compress liquidity and sentiment, limiting upside.

Token Burn or Supply Reduction Events

Scenario	Likely Impact
Small periodic burns	Modest support; improves perception
Large, sustained burns	Stronger scarcity; better price sensitivity
No meaningful burns	Supply overhang persists; upside capped

Part 3: Is It Possible for PEPE to Reach 1 Dollar?

Mathematical Challenges — Market Cap and Supply Reality

With ~420.69T tokens, $1 implies a $420T market cap—far beyond the entire crypto market. Even can pepe coin reach $1 dollar becomes implausible without radical supply reduction.

Hypothetical Price	Required Market Cap (Approx.)	Feasibility
$0.01	$4.2T	Extremely unlikely
$0.10	$42T	Effectively impossible
$1.00	$420T	Unrealistic

Could PEPE Reach 1 Cent Before $1?

Even $0.01 demands multi-trillion valuation; a more realistic target is fractions of a cent during strong bull cycles—especially if meaningful burns occur.

What Would It Take for PEPE to Hit $1 (Partnerships, Utility, Adoption)

Major Partnerships: Payments, gaming, or commerce integrations.
Utility Expansion: Staking, DeFi incentives, NFT payments.
Institutional Interest: Fund participation and endorsements.
Global Community Growth: New regional adoption waves.

Even with these, can pepe reach 1 dollar remains highly improbable without aggressive supply rework.

Expert Forecasts and Price Predictions for 2025–2030

Year	Conservative	Optimistic	Key Assumption
2025	$0.000005–$0.00002	$0.00005	Meme season revival
2026–2027	$0.00001–$0.00007	$0.0001	Wider exchange adoption
2028–2030	$0.00005–$0.0002	$0.001	Utility expansion + burns

Comparison with Other Meme Coins’ Peak Valuations

Coin	Peak Market Cap	All-Time High Price	Year of Peak	Main Driver
Dogecoin (DOGE)	~$90B	$0.74	2021	Celebrity influence, payments
Shiba Inu (SHIB)	~$40B	$0.000088	2021	DeFi & burn narrative
Bonk (BONK)	~$1.5B	$0.000004	2024	Solana ecosystem hype
Pepe (PEPE)	~$1.8B	$0.0000045	2024	Meme virality

Relative to peers, can pepe coin reach 1 dollar is constrained by supply; a ceiling in fractions of a cent is more realistic.

FAQs about Can PEPE Reach 1 Dollar

1. Will meme coin reach $1?

Most meme coins have enormous supplies, making $1 unrealistic. Even for PEPE, can pepe reach 1 dollar is a speculative hope requiring utility, burns, and a powerful bull cycle.

2. Can PEPE coin go 100x?

It’s possible during strong market phases. A move from $0.000003 to $0.0003 is 100x and far more plausible than can pepe coin reach $1 dollar.

3. Which crypto coin will give 1000x?

Such returns are rare and typically found in early micro-caps. Established meme coins like PEPE are unlikely to 1000x again due to large circulating supply.

Conclusion

So, can pepe reach 1 dollar? Given its huge supply and speculative nature, the answer is highly unlikely. Still, community strength, utility growth, and bull cycles could deliver moderate gains for risk-tolerant investors.

Japan's Economic Outlook Under Takaichi: Stimulus, Stagnation Risks, and the Shadow of Abenomics

Gerik

Economic

Equity Surge Reflects Hopes for Stimulus Continuity

Takaichi’s ascent to power has catalyzed a strong market response, with the Nikkei 225 rallying toward the symbolic 50,000 level. Investor optimism stems from expectations of continued ultra-loose monetary policy, large-scale fiscal support, and robust defense spending. Her stance against interest rate hikes despite inflation running above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target has reinforced the outlook for extended cheap credit.

The immediate effect of these policies has been a weaker yen, boosting export competitiveness but amplifying imported inflation. While equity markets have rallied, the sustainability of these gains depends on whether “Sanaenomics” can resolve Japan’s structural weaknesses, rather than merely delay them.

Inflation and Wage Policy: The Core Dilemma

Despite inflation hovering between 2.5% and 3%, wage levels in Japan have remained largely stagnant for three decades. Only in 2024 did average wages surpass their 1997 levels. Takaichi has promised to prioritize combating rising living costs and lifting wages, yet she has provided no concrete roadmap.

Her opposition to rate hikes may preserve short-term market stability, but it undermines long-term monetary normalization and yen strength. If inflation continues to outpace wages, real income growth will remain negative exacerbating household financial strain and limiting domestic demand.

Demographic Drag on Growth Potential

Japan’s demographic crisis marked by a declining birth rate and a rapidly aging population continues to erode labor force potential and constrain long-term growth. Takaichi has proposed tax incentives for companies offering childcare and family support, but such measures fall short of addressing deeper systemic issues, such as cultural barriers to work-life balance and the high cost of child-rearing.

Without broader reform to enhance workforce participation (especially among women and seniors) and encourage immigration, Japan’s shrinking population will remain a persistent drag on productivity and fiscal sustainability.

Abenomics 2.0: Old Tools for New Problems?

Takaichi is widely seen as an ideological successor to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Like her mentor, she advocates aggressive fiscal stimulus and expansionary monetary policy despite Japan’s staggering national debt already nearly three times the size of its GDP.

Defense spending is expected to rise sharply under her leadership, with shares of defense manufacturers like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Japan Steel Works already benefiting from her hawkish stance. However, her fiscal flexibility may be constrained by global interest rate trends and growing debt-servicing costs.

Takaichi initially expressed hesitation over Japan’s $550 billion financial commitment to the Trump administration (in exchange for lowered tariffs), but she has since affirmed the agreement despite public disapproval.

Political Volatility and Limited Reform Capacity

While her election marks a historic milestone, Takaichi’s ability to implement structural reform is uncertain. Japanese prime ministers often face short tenures, and she will govern with a fragile coalition. The LDP’s alliance with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) helped secure her victory, but the JIP has opted to remain outside the cabinet, preserving its autonomy and leverage.

With fragmented opposition ranging from the Communist Party to far-right nationalists, legislative consensus will be difficult. Vested interests and intra-party factionalism may further limit her ability to advance bold reforms, especially those threatening the status quo.

Sanae Takaichi’s rise to power is historic and market-friendly in the short term, but her economic roadmap centered on low interest rates, fiscal expansion, and conservative social policies mirrors past strategies that have failed to resolve Japan’s core challenges. Without meaningful progress on wages, demographics, and structural reform, “Sanaenomics” risks becoming another iteration of stimulus without sustainability. Investors may welcome the status quo for now, but underlying vulnerabilities remain unresolved beneath the market euphoria.

Source: AP

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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FX Daily: Tentative Calm Fuels Dollar Rebound

USD: Credit concerns keep easing

EUR: Eyes back on 1.160

CAD: Inflation figures shouldn't change the picture

HUF: Hawkish NBH and promise of Ukraine deal support further FX gains

Source: ING

Rising Tariffs Create Mounting Pressure on U.S. Manufacturing Sector

Persistent Economic Strain from Trade Barriers

Contradictory Effects of the "Made in USA" Push

Judicial Review Offers a Glimmer of Relief

Can PEPE Reach $1 Dollar? A Deep Dive into Its Future Prospects

Part 1: What Is Pepe Coin?

The Origin and Concept Behind PEPE

How PEPE Became a Viral Meme Token

Token Supply, Distribution, and Market Position

What Makes PEPE Different from Other Meme Coins (DOGE, SHIB, BONK)

Part 2: Current Market Price and Historical Trends

PEPE’s Launch and Early Price Movements

Major Milestones and Exchange Listings

Investor Sentiment and Social Media Influence

Key Factors That Will Influence PEPE Coin’s Price

Utility and Ecosystem Development

Community Engagement and Hype Cycles

Broader Crypto Market Trends

Token Burn or Supply Reduction Events

Part 3: Is It Possible for PEPE to Reach 1 Dollar?

Mathematical Challenges — Market Cap and Supply Reality

Could PEPE Reach 1 Cent Before $1?

What Would It Take for PEPE to Hit $1 (Partnerships, Utility, Adoption)

Expert Forecasts and Price Predictions for 2025–2030

Comparison with Other Meme Coins’ Peak Valuations

FAQs about Can PEPE Reach 1 Dollar

1. Will meme coin reach $1?

2. Can PEPE coin go 100x?

3. Which crypto coin will give 1000x?

Conclusion

Japan's Economic Outlook Under Takaichi: Stimulus, Stagnation Risks, and the Shadow of Abenomics

Equity Surge Reflects Hopes for Stimulus Continuity

Inflation and Wage Policy: The Core Dilemma

Demographic Drag on Growth Potential

Abenomics 2.0: Old Tools for New Problems?

Political Volatility and Limited Reform Capacity

Source: AP

Swiss Watch Exports Slump In September, Hurt By US Tariffs

Source: Bloomberg Europe

European Markets Set for Higher Open as Defense Stocks and Global Optimism Fuel Momentum

European Index Futures Point to Continued Gains

Defense Sector Leads European Rally

Muted Economic Calendar Shifts Focus to Earnings

Positive Global Signals Support Risk Sentiment

Source: CNBC

U.K. Government Overshoots Borrowing Target In First Half, Making Tax Rises Likely

Source: TradingView

Risk Disclosure