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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6857.13
6857.13
6857.13
6865.94
6827.13
+7.41
+ 0.11%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47850.93
47850.93
47850.93
48049.72
47692.96
-31.96
-0.07%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23505.13
23505.13
23505.13
23528.53
23372.33
+51.04
+ 0.22%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
98.830
98.910
98.830
98.980
98.830
-0.150
-0.15%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16589
1.16597
1.16589
1.16593
1.16408
+0.00144
+ 0.12%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33490
1.33498
1.33490
1.33495
1.33165
+0.00219
+ 0.16%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4227.26
4227.60
4227.26
4229.22
4194.54
+20.09
+ 0.48%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.292
59.329
59.292
59.469
59.187
-0.091
-0.15%
--

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Reserve Bank Of India Chief Malhotra On Rupee: Fluctuations Can Happen, Effort Is To Reduce Undue Volatility

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Reserve Bank Of India Chief Malhotra On Rupee: Allow Markets To Determine Levels On Currency

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Sri Lanka's CSE All Share Index Down 1.2%

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Iw Institute: German Economy Faces Tepid Growth In 2026 Due To Global Trade Slowdown

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Stats Office - Seychelles November Inflation At 0.02% Year-On-Year

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[Market Update] Spot Silver Prices Rose 2.00% Intraday, Currently Trading At $58.27 Per Ounce

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S.Africa's Gross Reserves At $72.068 Billion At End November - Central Bank

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[Market Update] Spot Silver Broke Through $58/ounce, Up 1.56% On The Day

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Dollar/Yen Down 0.33% To 154.61

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Kremlin Says No Plans For Putin-Trump Call For Now

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Kremlin Says Moscow Is Waiting For USA Reaction After Putin-Witkoff Meeting

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Cctv - China, France: Say Both Sides Support All Efforts For A Ceasefire, Restore Peace According To Intl Law

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[Chinese Ambassador To The US Xie Feng Hopes Chinese And American Business Communities Will Focus On Three Lists] On December 4, Chinese Ambassador To The US Xie Feng Delivered A Speech At The China-US Economic And Trade Cooperation Forum Jointly Hosted By The China Council For The Promotion Of International Trade And The Meridian International Center. Xie Feng Said That In November 2026, China Will Host The APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting For The Third Time In Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. In December 2026, The United States Will Also Host The G20 Meeting. Regarding How Chinese And American Business Communities Can Seize These Opportunities, He Suggested Focusing On Three Lists: First, Continue To Expand The Dialogue List; Second, Continuously Lengthen The Cooperation List; And Third, Constantly Reduce The Problem List

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India's Nifty Financial Services Index Extends Gains, Last Up 0.75%

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Eni : Jp Morgan Cuts To Underweight From Overweight

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Cctv - China, France: Signed Protocol On Sanitary, Phytosanitary Requirements For Export Of French Alfalfa Grass

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India's NIFTY IT Index Last Up 1.3%

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India's Nifty 50 Index Rises 0.35%

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Israel Sets 2026 Defence Budget At $34 Billion

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Russia Says Azov Sea's Port Of Temryuk Damaged In Ukrainian Attack

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          ECB's Nagel: ECB Shouldn't Cut Hastily as Rates Near Neutral

          ECB

          Remarks of Officials

          Summary:

          Joachim Nagel, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank and a member of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Governing Council, emphasized on Wednesday that the ECB should not rush to rate cuts further, especially as rates approach the neutral level.

          Fundamentals

          Speaking at a lecture at the London School of Economics, Nagel detailed his stance as follows:
          The monetary policy stance is currently 2.75%, slightly above the neutral rate range of 1.8%-2.5% calculated by Bundesbank staff. Given the uncertainties in the global economic environment, including potential economic shocks from U.S. tariff policies and the impact of an uncertain external trade environment on the euro area economy, the ECB should not adjust policy too quickly. This caution is necessary to avoid exacerbating market volatility, especially when economic growth momentum has not yet shown clear improvement.
          Inflation is nearing the target but remains under observation. Nagel expressed confidence that the inflation rate would reach the 2% target by mid-year, with a low likelihood of it falling below the target. While interest rates are crucial for policy decisions, their forecasts still carry significant uncertainty. In the face of global economic changes, central banks need to adjust strategies flexibly and avoid easing policies too early, which could lead to an inflation rebound.
          The labor market continues to grow robustly, with stable employment conditions in the euro area. However, risks of economic slowdown persist. As global trade uncertainties increase, some industries may face layoffs or hiring slowdowns. Therefore, the ECB must consider changes in the labor market when adjusting monetary policy to avoid adverse impacts on employment growth.
          In the current complex economic environment, the ECB's monetary policy adjustments should not be overly aggressive and should be based on economic data to ensure the stable operation of the euro area economy. Moving forward, the ECB needs to closely monitor the dynamics of economic growth, inflation, and the labor market, and adopt more prudent policy measures in the face of increasing uncertainties to maintain financial stability and economic development.
          Nagel's Speech
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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          February 13th Financial News

          FastBull Featured

          Daily News

          [Quick Facts]

          1. US budget deficit hits record $840 billion in first four months of 2025 fiscal year.
          2. Fed Chairman Powell: Don't over-interpret CPI data.
          3. Austria, negotiations of Freedom Party to form a government fail, Austria coalition talks stall.
          4. Nagel: Tread cautiously on future interest rate cuts as borrowing costs near a neutral level.
          5. Fed's Bostic: Fed needs to be patient with Monetary Policy.
          6. US House Republicans release tax cut and spending cut blueprint after intense talks.

          [News Details]

          US budget deficit hits record $840 billion in first four months of 2025 fiscal year
          The US federal budget gap widened to a record US$840 billion for the first third of the fiscal year, propelled by spending increases in areas including health, Social Security, transfers to veterans and debt-interest payments. For January alone, the deficit grew by US$129 billion, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday (Feb 12). Adjusting for calendar differences, the cumulative deficit for October to January widened by 25 percent. The 2024 figure was inflated by deferred tax payments from 2023 related to natural disasters that year, a senior Treasury official told reporters. Spending totalled US$2.44 trillion for the past four months, up 7 per cent after adjusting for calendar differences.
          Fed Chairman Powell: Don't over-interpret CPI data
          According to Mars Finance news, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warned on Wednesday that the data showing the largest month-over-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in over a year should not be overly interpreted, while also acknowledging that the reading was significantly higher than expected. At the hearing of the House Financial Services Committee, Powell said: "The CPI reading was almost higher than all forecasts, but I just want to remind you of two points. First, we won't get excited about one or two good readings, and we won't get excited about one or two bad readings either. Second, our inflation target focuses on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, because we believe this is a better indicator for measuring inflation. So you need to know the conversion from CPI to PCE, and we will get more relevant data from the Producer Price Index (PPI) tomorrow. We will know the PCE reading later tomorrow.
          Austria, negotiations of Freedom Party to form a government fail, Austria coalition talks stall
          On February 12, Herbert Kickl, leader of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), returned the mandate to form a new government to President Alexander Van der Bellen, plunging the formation of Austria's new government into deadlock once again.
          Kickl visited the presidential palace in the afternoon to hand back the mandate to Van der Bellen. In a subsequent statement, he said that the coalition talks between the FPÖ and the People's Party (ÖVP) had failed due to an inability to reach a compromise on the allocation of ministerial posts. Kickl blamed the ÖVP for the failure. However, Christian Stöckl, leader of the ÖVP, later held a press conference, accusing Kickl of being responsible for the breakdown of the negotiations.
          Nagel: Tread cautiously on future interest rate cuts as borrowing costs near a neutral level
          Joachim Nagel, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank and a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, stated on Wednesday that as interest rates approach the neutral level, it becomes increasingly appropriate to adopt a gradualist approach to monetary policy. According to calculations by staff at the Deutsche Bundesbank, the neutral interest rate is estimated to be between 1.8% and 2.5%, slightly below the current deposit rate of 2.75%.
          In the current environment of uncertainty, the ECB should not be hasty in further rate cuts, especially as borrowing costs are nearing a level that neither restricts nor stimulates economic activity. Data will guide the direction of policy. While we have not yet reached the inflation target, I am very confident that we will achieve it by mid-year, and the likelihood of inflation falling below the target level is low. Basing monetary policy decisions on uncertain estimates of the neutral rate is "risky," and he emphasized that the ECB utilizes a wide range of financial, real economy, and other indicators to make assessments.
          Fed's Bostic: Fed needs to be patient with Monetary Policy
          "My view is until we have more clarity, it's going to be impossible to make a judgment about where our policy should go and how fast and at what pace, and so we're just going to have to get more information before we're going to be able to move," Bostic said Wednesday in a question-and-answer session in Atlanta. "We'll move when we have enough information to move," he said.
          Bostic expects inflation will be about 2% in early 2026, and he forecasts the neutral rate is around 3%-3.5%, likely to approach that level early next year.
          US House Republicans release tax cut and spending cut blueprint after intense talks
          House Republicans released the first blueprint for their "one big, beautiful bill" that would cut taxes, reduce spending and provide money for border enforcement.
          Lawmakers created the outline after weeks of tense internal meetings among their competing factions, and some members indicated they weren't fully on board.
          The budget proposal, which will be submitted to the Budget Committee for a vote on Thursday, calls for at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts over the next decade and up to $4.5 trillion in tax cuts from the Ways and Means Committee. The proposal also includes an increase in the federal debt ceiling by $4 trillion, which is expected to be sufficient for approximately two years. Additionally, the plan mandates an additional $300 billion in spending, likely to be allocated towards immigration enforcement and defense.

          [Today's Focus]

          Utc+8 15:00 UK Q4 GDP Annual Rate (Preliminary)
          Utc+8 15:30 Switzerland January CPI
          Utc+8 17:00 IEA Releases Monthly Oil Market Report
          Utc+8 21:30 US January PPI
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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          Easing Inflation Could Ignite Another BTC Rally: 10x Research

          Warren Takunda

          Cryptocurrency

          Crypto market participants are expecting no change in the upcoming US Consumer Price Index, but a lower print is possible and could trigger an uptick in Bitcoin’s price, says a crypto analyst.
          “There is a real possibility of a lower print, which could ignite another rally attempt,” 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen said in a Feb. 11 market report.

          Bitcoin rally may emerge if CPI “surprises to the downside”

          Thielen said that most market participants expect a 2.9% year-on-year (YoY) inflation rate in the US Bureau of Statistics report set to be released on Feb. 12.
          However, he said that the US Truflation Inflation Index — a real-time inflation tracker — has declined from 3.0% to 2.1%, which suggests that inflation pressures “may be easing faster than expected.”
          “If CPI surprises to the downside at 2.7% or 2.8%, Bitcoin could see a relief rally,” he said.
          He explained that this was why Bitcoin surged in January — market participants had expected a “third consecutive month of rising CPI,” but the 2.9% inflation print, unchanged from December, caught them off guard.
          He said this “relieved the market,” sparking a $10,000 surge in Bitcoin’s price and pushing it back above the key $100,000 level — until US President Donald Trump’s imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, which “halted the momentum.”

          Another $10,000 Bitcoin rally will bring it closer to peak price

          A similar $10,000 rally would send Bitcoin to $105,491, just 3.5% shy of its $109,000 all-time high, briefly tapped on Jan. 20 ahead of Trump’s inauguration.Easing Inflation Could Ignite Another BTC Rally: 10x Research_1

          Bitcoin is trading at $95,490 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

          Bitcoin is trading at $95,490 at the time of publication, down 2.65% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap.
          Into The CryptoVerse founder Benjamin Cowen ran a Feb. 11 poll on X asking where Bitcoin’s price will go after the CPI release — 51.7% of the 12,397 voters had chosen “up” at the time of publication.
          MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe recently said Bitcoin could hit new all-time highs within weeks, following gold’s recent streak of strong all-time highs.

          Source: Cointelegraph

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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          Yen’s Rally Stalls But May Resume Soon

          Owen Li

          Economic

          Key market factors

          At the beginning of the week, the Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar as the greenback reacted to fresh US trade tariffs.
          US President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports, with no exemptions for partner countries. This decision has triggered fears of a global trade war, which could, in turn, limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates further.
          Despite this, the yen appreciated by 2% against the USD last week, driven by increasing market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue its monetary tightening cycle.
          BoJ policymaker Naoki Tamura reinforced this view last Thursday by suggesting that the central bank should move towards an interest rate of at least 1% in the second half of fiscal 2025. Recent Japanese economic data supports this hawkish stance, with rising wages and household spending providing a solid foundation for further rate hikes.

          Technical analysis of USD/JPY

          On the H4 chart, USD/JPY formed a consolidation range around 151.90 after a downward move. A break below this range is expected, targeting 148.80, with a potential continuation to 148.38. This level serves as a local target. Once the wave completes, a corrective move towards 151.90 is possible before the broader downtrend resumes, aiming for 145.50. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below zero and sharply downwards, suggesting ongoing bearish momentum.Yen’s Rally Stalls But May Resume Soon_1

          On the H1 chart, the market is developing a downward wave towards 148.40, with consolidation around 151.90. A downside breakout would confirm the continuation of the second phase of the decline. After reaching 148.40, a corrective move back to 151.90 could materialise. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line below 80 and sharply downward, indicating bearish pressure.Yen’s Rally Stalls But May Resume Soon_2

          Conclusion

          The Japanese yen’s rally has paused, but further gains remain likely, supported by expectations of continued BoJ tightening. Technical indicators suggest that USD/JPY may break lower towards 148.40, with further downside potential towards 145.50. The yen’s trajectory will depend on BoJ policy signals and further developments in US trade policy, particularly how global markets respond to Trump’s tariffs.

          Source:action forex

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Fed’s Powell: Still ‘In No Hurry’ To Resume Cutting Short-Term Interest Rates

          Warren Takunda

          Economic

          With inflation still running too hot in an economy growing above trend close to full employment, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell held out little hope for near term interest rate relief in a congressional appearance Tuesday.
          After 100 basis points of rate cuts from September through December, monetary policy is “significantly less restrictive,” so the Fed does “not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance,” Powell told the Senate Banking Committee.
          The Fed could ease credit if the labor market “weakens unexpectedly,” but if inflation fails to fall toward its 2% target in a climate of strong economic activity, the Fed could “maintain policy restraint for longer,” he said in the first of two days of testimony on the Fed’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.
          Powell said he agrees with many of his Fed colleagues that the so-called “neutral” federal funds rate has risen, implying less need to cut the actual funds rate.
          He indicated the Fed is also in no hurry to stop shrinking its bond holdings through “quantitative tightening.”
          Powell refused to be drawn into criticism of President Trump’s trade policies.
          Powell’s testimony, which will be reprised Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee, comes two weeks after the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee left the key federal funds rate unchanged in a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, while continuing to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet.
          The Committee’s policy statement left the door open to a resumption of rate cuts at some point, although its policy statement was perceived as being slightly more “hawkish” in excising former assertion that “inflation has made progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective,”
          Powell said afterward that the FOMC had concluded that, after 100 basis points of rate cuts from September to December, “it’s appropriate we do not be in a hurry to make further adjustment.” He used nearly the exact language in his Tuesday testimony.
          Since the meeting, data showing a combination of persistently high inflation and relatively strong employment seem to have given little impetus to further rate moves.
          The Monetary Policy Report, which was released Friday, reflects this sense of equilibrium. Regrading inflation, it says, “recent progress has been bumpy and inflation remains somewhat above 2%.”
          Meanwhile, it observes, “the labor market remains solid and appears to have stabilized after a period of easing ….. Given the further re-balancing of labor demand and supply last year, the labor market no longer appears especially tight. Reflecting this further balancing, nominal wage gains continued to slow in 2024 and are now closer to the pace consistent with 2% inflation over the longer term.”
          Testifying on the report on behalf of the FOMC, Powell reiterated that he and his fellow policymakers are content to wait for a while before resuming monetary easing.
          “With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance,” he said in prepared testimony.
          As he has multiple times before, Powell allowed for some policy flexibility.
          “We know that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on inflation,” he said. “At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment …..”
          “If the economy remains strong and inflation does not continue to move sustainably toward 2%, we can maintain policy restraint for longer,” he continued. “If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly.”
          “We are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate, and policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face,” he added.
          Echoing the FOMC’s Jan. 29 statement, Powell said, “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the FOMC will assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”
          Elaborating in response to questions from senators about when the Fed might resume cutting rates, Powell said, “Overall the economy is strong, growing 2 ½ last year. The labor market is also very solid, unemployment rate at 4% — quite a low level. Inflation last year was 2.6% for the year. So, we’re in a pretty good place with this economy.”
          “We want to make more progress on inflation, and we think our policy rate is in a good place, and we don’t see any reason to be in a hurry to reduce it further,” he went on.
          Responding to one of many questions about how Fed policy is affecting the level of mortgage rates and the cost of housing, Powell said, “It’s true that mortgage rates have remained high, but that’s not so directly related to the Fed’s rate. It’s really related more to the long-term bond rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury, the 3-year Treasury for example, and those are high for reasons not particularly closely related to Fed policy.”
          Mortgage rates “may remain high,” he said, but “once we lower rates, and kind of rates return to a lower level, mortgage rates will come down. I don’t know when that will happen, and even when it does happen we’re still going to have a housing shortage in many places.”
          Powell was also asked about the level of the “neutral” funds rate, the hypothetical rate at which monetary policy is neither stimulative nor contractionary – a topic that has gained increased currency in monetary policy circles lately.
          With downside risks having “diminished” and the labor market now “very strong,” he replied, “my view is that the neutral rate will have risen meaningfully from a very, very low – historically low — before the pandemic .…Yes, I think it’s moved up, and many of my colleagues feel that way too.”
          The “longer run” “neutral rate” includes the 2% inflation target plus an estimate of the real equilibrium short-term interest rate (r*). Many economists and Fed officials believe the real rate has risen because of faster productivity growth, among other reasons, and this belief is reflected in the Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections,
          After dramatically lowering their estimate of the “longer run” “neutral rate” after the financial crisis, FOMC participants have increased it by six tenths to 3.0% over the past three years, with most of the upward revisions coming in the past year.
          This has important policy implications. To the extent Powell & Co. believe the neutral funds rate has risen, they can justify fewer reductions in the actual funds rate.
          Asked about the Fed’s balance sheet reduction strategy, Powell said, “we intend to slow (QT) then stop … when reserve balances are consistent with ample reserves.” But he said, at this time, “reserves are still abundant ….”
          To decide when to stop shrinking the balance sheet, Powell said, “we basically are going to be looking at reserve conditions” and “trying to stop a little bit above where (reserves are) ample …. we are meaningfully above that now…”
          He added, that “we can’t know demand for reserves other than observing conditions in the market” and that the Fed wants to “keep a buffer” above the “ample” reserves level.
          Ever since the president declared on Jan. 23 that he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately” if oil prices fall, there have been jitters on Wall Street about Trumpian threats to the Fed’s independence, although his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has sought to dampen such concerns.
          Powell once again defended Fed independence, saying “we can do our job” better by refraining from taking actions that favor one political party or the other, but otherwise declined to comment on Trump pronouncements. He did say that it would not be within the law for Trump to fire him or other Fed policymakers.
          Markets have also been unsettled by Trump tariff threats and actions against major U.S. trading partners, but here again Powell treaded lightly (and agnostically) in the face of repeated questions about tariffs.
          “It really does remain to be seen what tariff polices will be implemented…,” he said. So “it’s unwise to speculate…it’s so hard to say what will happen….”
          Powell added that “it’s not just tariffs” that will impact the economy, “it’s fiscal policy, immigration policy, regulatory policy ….. It will all go into the mix .…”
          The Fed chief indicated, however, that he’s not entirely unsympathetic with Trump’s combative trade strategy. While “the standard case for free trade … logically still makes sense,’ he said “it doesn’t work that well when we have one very large country that doesn’t play by the rules…”
          But he quickly added, “our job is to react in a thoughtful way and make monetary policy to meet our dual mandate.”
          Powell’s testimony followed a string of largely favorable economic data.
          This past Friday, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate fell from 4.1% to 4% in January. Non-farm payrolls grew a less than expected 143,000, but prior months job gains were revised up by 100,000. Average hourly earnings grew a faster 0.5%, leaving them up 4.1% from a year earlier – up from 3.9% in December.
          The previous Friday, the Commerce Department had reported that its price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.6% from a year earlier in December, two tenths higher than in November. The more closely watched core PCE was up 2.8% for the second straight month — well above the Fed’s target.
          Gross domestic product has been growing at a 2.5% pace, well in excess of the FOMC’s estimate of the economy’s non-inflationary growth potential, leading some Fed officials to maintain that the funds rate is already near “neutral.”
          On neither side of the Fed’s dual mandate of “maximum employment” and “price stability” does there appear to be a compelling case for changing rates at this stage.
          Inflation expectations are a major concern for the Fed, and Powell repeated his familiar refrain that inflation expectations “remain well-anchored,” but his assertion was somewhat belied by recent findings of the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey. It showed one-year inflation expectations surging from 3.3% to 4.3% in February – highest since November 2023.
          The New York Fed’s January 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, released Monday, found that “inflation expectations were unchanged at the short- and medium-term horizons,” but “increased at the longer-term horizon.” While “median inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0% at both the one- and three-year-ahead horizons,” the survey found that “median five-year-ahead inflation expectations rose by 0.3 percentage point to 3.0% in January.”
          The survey also found a deterioration in its gauge of uncertainty about future inflation. Although median inflation uncertainty was unchanged at the one-year horizon and declined at the three-year horizon, it “increased at the five-year horizon.”
          Earlier Tuesday, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack, who voted against the Dec. 18 rate cut, said the funds rate will likely need to stay where it is “for some time.”
          “Given the economy’s momentum heading into 2025, and with a healthy labor market, we have the luxury of being patient as we assess the path forward for inflation,” she said. “We have made good progress, but 2% inflation is not in sight just yet. As long as the labor market remains healthy, I am looking for broad-based evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to 2 percent before adjusting policy further.”
          Hammack said, “the risks to the inflation outlook appear skewed to the upside” amid heightened policy uncertainty. What’s more, she maintained that “monetary policy is only modestly restrictive.”
          So she said “it will likely be appropriate to hold the funds rate steady for some time. A patient approach will allow us to assess the health of the labor market, whether inflation is returning to 2% on a sustained basis, and how the economy is performing in the current rate environment.”

          Source: Macenews

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Australian Dollar Drifting after Mixed Confidence Data

          Owen Li

          Economic

          Australian business confidence jumps, consumer confidence stagnant

          Australian confidence indicators were mixed on Tuesday. The Westpac consumer sentiment index climbed 0.1% in February to 92.2 points, which means a majority of the surveyed consumers were pessimistic about econmic conditions. The reading bounced back from a 0.7% decline in January but was shy of the forecast of 0.4%. Consumer confidence remains weak as consumers have been squeezed by high inflation and elevated interest rates. The survey noted that consumers have become more confident that the central bank will lower rates.
          The National Australia Bank’s (NAB) business confidence index, which rose 6 points in January to +4. However, business conditions index dropped to +3 from +6 a month earlier, as profitability and employment weakened. The NAB survey noted that retail spending has improved and this trend would need to continue if business conditions were to improve.
          The mixed confidence numbers come just one week before a crucial Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. A rate cut is virtually certain at the meeting, which would mark the RBA’s first rate cut since Nov. 2020. The RBA is yet to join the easing cycle which other major central banks have implemented as inflation has fallen.
          The Federal Reserve is widely expected to continue to maintain interest rates at the March meeting. The US economy remains robust and the labor market has slowed gradually, which means there isn’t much pressure on Fed policy makers to lower rates in the coming months. Barring unexpected economic news, the Fed is expected to cut rates no more than one or two times in 2025.
          AUD/USD technical
          AUD/USD tested support at 0.6267 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6245There is resistance at 0.6299 and 0.6321.Australian Dollar Drifting after Mixed Confidence Data_1

          Source:action forex

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Pound Sterling's Tariff Shock Looms

          Warren Takunda

          Economic

          Pound Sterling faces the risk of an expanded U.S. tariff regime that aims to address stifling corporate rules impacting U.S. companies.
          According to reports, Howard Lutnick, the incoming U.S. commerce secretary, wants to use "trade tools" to retaliate against countries that squeeze American companies where regulations have a significant impact on operations.
          According to documents from a Senate committee, Lutnick told Republican lawmakers that he is particularly concerned about environmental, social and governance (ESG) regulations in Europe that are said to be impacting U.S. corporates.
          The European Union's Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive was specifically mentioned by Lutnick, suggesting that future EU tariffs will be widened to deal with more than just the bloc's massive trade surplus with the U.S.
          The development indicates there is clear scope for the U.S. to expand its tariff regime away from a simple focus on trade balances. To date, analysts have assumed the balanced UK-U.S. trade in goods insulates the Pound from tariff risks.
          "The fact that the U.S. authorities view themselves as maintaining a goods trade surplus means that the UK was never going to be in the centre of Trump’s sights when it comes to a trade wars and tariffs. That does not mean to say that the UK will be able to side-step Trump’s wrath completely. It has become clear that this administration is willing to threaten tariffs to achieve more than economic policy goals," says Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank.
          Although the UK has a balanced relationship in goods trade with the U.S., it runs a significant trade surplus in services, meaning this sector is at risk of tariffs that extend beyond the trade in goods.
          In 2023, the UK exported £126.3BN in services to the U.S. and imported £57.4BN said the ONS, resulting in a services trade surplus of £68.9BN.
          The UK economy has benefited from America's exceptional growth over the past two years as it increases demand for UK services exports. This means any attempt to sanction the services link would significantly undermine the UK at a time when economic growth is flatlining.
          Pound Sterling's Tariff Shock Looms_1
          Further headwinds to growth would open the door to more Bank of England interest rate cuts than are currently expected, pressuring the Pound lower.
          Although Lutnick specifically mentioned the EU in his comments, U.S. companies in the UK face significant regulatory pressures.
          PwC says Britain's ESG reporting landscape is "complex and changing at pace." The consultancy adds that companies operating in the UK are "under more pressure than ever" when dealing with "new regulation frameworks, coupled with heightened stakeholder scrutiny, has created a magnified demand for transparency."
          President Trump has already indicated displeasure over regulations squeezing U.S. companies in Britain. In January, he criticised the UK government’s energy policy by calling to "open up" North Sea oil and gas production and "get rid of windmills".
          The comments were a response to news that APA Corporation, which owns Apache, said it would wind up its North Sea operations by 2029, warning high taxes and environmental regulations made them "uneconomic".
          Trump said on February 01 that the UK was "out of line" on trade and suggested the issue would be addressed.
          The U.S. is yet to set out its stall on EU and UK trade as all signs point to a more multi-pronged approach that seeks to address issues beyond simple trade deficits.
          Indeed, Lutnick told Senate Republicans he looks forward to "working on any efforts" required in order "to prevent overly burdensome regulations that negatively impact U.S. companies."
          ESG is a "serious concern for American industry and the American economy," he said.

          Source: Poundsterlinglive

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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