Businesses Ring in the New Year with Renewed Optimism

Economic

Summary:

There is a renewed sense of optimism among small and midsize business leaders as they consider their business and economic prospects for the year ahead, according to JPMorganChase’s 2025 Business Leaders Outlook survey released today. Compared to a year ago, confidence in the national economy has jumped 12 percentage points to 55% among small business owners, and more than doubled from 31% to 65% among midsize business leaders. This upbeat attitude extends to their own companies, with three-quarters of respondents expressing a positive outlook for the next 12 months.

Recession fears have eased, with 69% of small and 71% of midsize businesses either uncertain about or not expecting one in 2025. However, inflation remains a top concern as most small business owners are seeing an increase in business expenses, and more than three-quarters of midsize business leaders feel costs are rising.

“Businesses are entering 2025 with positive momentum after navigating a period of elevated inflation and interest rates better than expected,” said Ginger Chambless, Head of Research, JPMorganChase Commercial Banking. “We’ll be watching closely to see how this optimism extends throughout the year and influences companies’ growth strategies.”

Embracing opportunities amid a complex global landscape

Today, the majority of leaders say they are feeling positive about the local economy—60% of small and 59% of midsize businesses express confidence—but the global outlook is more tempered, reflecting uncertainty around shifts in global trading patterns, potential tariff impacts and geopolitical tensions.

When identifying challenges for 2025, midsize businesses point to international tariffs (19%), U.S. competition (18%) and concerns about China’s trade policies (17%, up 8 percentage points from last year). Still, nearly half (46%) plan to expand into new geographies in the next 12 months as they seek growth.

“Throughout history, business leaders have shown a remarkable ability to turn obstacles into opportunities,” said John Simmons, Head of Commercial Banking, JPMorganChase. “As they navigate labor pressures, supply chain dynamics and myriad other challenges, their tenacity and ingenuity will undoubtedly propel their growth in the coming year.”

Forty percent of small businesses and close to half of midsize businesses (46%) say labor shortages, retention and recruiting are significant challenges. Many are considering tactics like increasing wages, offering flexible hours or increasing benefits to address these issues.

Revenue and profit expectations jump as companies focus on growth drivers

“Small business owners tend to be upbeat by nature, but as the survey shows, we’re seeing particularly strong levels of optimism as we start 2025. I look forward to seeing how that enthusiasm plays out in the economy,” said Ben Walter, CEO of Chase for Business.

Buoyed by rising optimism, businesses are bullish when it comes to their companies’ performance projections for 2025. Among small business respondents:

Two-thirds predict higher profits (67%) and sales (66%)

Half (51%) plan to increase spending

The majority (64%) plan to invest more to support sales by adding products (35%), funding more advertising (34%) and increasing social media campaigns (31%), among other strategies

Small businesses are also investing in technology to fuel digital transformation. Notably, 48% plan to add artificial intelligence (AI) applications to their business in the coming year. While nearly 80% of small business leaders say they are either implementing, already using or considering adopting AI, about half (46%) express concern about its potential impact on business.

Midsize businesses are similarly looking forward to stronger results in 2025:

Nearly three-in-four (74%) expect revenues/sales to increase, up 13 percentage points from a year ago

65% anticipate higher profits, up 10 percentage pointsHalf (51%) plan to add headcount, up seven percentage points

38% are forecasting higher capital expenditures

To help drive this growth, slightly more than half of midsize businesses (53%) plan to launch new products and services, and 43% expect to engage in strategic partnerships and/or investments.

Positioning for sustainable growth

As companies build out their plans for the year ahead, factoring in the considerations below can help ensure they’re on track for sustainable growth.

Press on with market expansion:

Conducting regular market research to understand the competitive landscape and potential barriers to entry can help identify opportunities for growth in new markets or segments.

Unlock working capital:

Businesses’ working capital will need to keep up with expansion plans to accelerate growth. Strategies to unlock liquidity include increasing profit margins, improving inventory management and securing working capital financing.

Embrace digital transformation:

Investing in the right technology can help businesses stay competitive, streamline operations and enhance the customer experience. For example, process automation, increasingly implemented using AI, can be used for repetitive tasks such as data entry, invoicing and customer service inquiries, and reducing operational costs.

Derisk the business:

Developing a robust risk management strategy will help identify and mitigate potential threats and ensure business resiliency. For example, update cybersecurity protocols to protect data and diversify suppliers to handle potential disruptions.

Plan ahead for business transitions:

No matter what stage a business is in, create a transition strategy for multiple scenarios – whether it involves a merger, acquisition, IPO, employee stock ownership plan or another solution – to help bridge the gap between business success and personal wealth goals.

For more information on the 2025 Business Leaders Outlook survey, view the midsize and small business reports.

Survey Methodology

JPMorganChase’s Business Leaders Outlook survey was conducted online from November 11-15, 2024 for small businesses (annual revenues between $100,000 and $20 million) and from November 12 – December 4, 2024 for midsize businesses (annual revenues between $20 million and $500 million). In total, 2,644 U.S. business owners and leaders across various industries participated in the survey. For year-over-year trends, current data is compared to data collected in the fourth quarter of previous years. The results of this online survey are within statistical parameters for validity, and the error rate is plus or minus 3.1% for the small business findings and plus or minus 3.4% for the midsize business findings, both at the 95% confidence level.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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