Source:FP Markets

New Zealand's annual consumer inflation accelerated in the second quarter but was below economists' forecasts, leading markets to narrow the odds on a rate cut next month given weakness in the broader economy.

Annual inflation came in at 2.7% in the second quarter, its highest level in a year, and speeding up from the 2.5% rate in the first quarter, Statistics New Zealand said in a statement on Monday. However, economists had forecast inflation at 2.8%.

The statistics agency attributed the uptick to an increase in local government taxes and housing rental prices.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the consumer price index rose 0.5%, compared with a 0.9% increase in the first quarter.

Economists in a Reuters poll had forecast a 0.6% rise for the quarter.

The New Zealand dollar dipped 0.3% to $0.5941 following the data release. Markets are now pricing in a 75% chance that the central bank will cut by 25 basis points in August, up from a 61% chance ahead of the data.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which in May forecast annual inflation for the quarter at 2.6%, held interest rates steady at this month's policy meeting partly due to near-term price risks.

It was the first pause in the RBNZ's easing cycle that began in August 2024, a period in which it slashed rates by 225 basis points to 3.25%.

The uncertainty around U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies and the impact on global growth and prices have kept most policymakers, including the RBNZ, on edge.

New Zealand's annual inflation is nudging nearer to the upper end of the central bank's 1% to 3% target band. But economists say that with medium-term inflation expected to remain contained and considerable spare capacity in the economy, a rate cut in August remains likely.

ASB Bank senior economist Mark Smith said ASB's core judgment is that the RBNZ will accommodate or look through the tick up in near-term inflation as the weakening global outlook and the large margin of spare capacity imply a lower medium-term inflation outlook.

“After earlier tapping the monetary policy brakes, the RBNZ is expected to press the accelerator and actively provide policy support," Smith said in a note.

Annual non-tradeable inflation rose 3.7% in the second quarter, its lowest level since the second quarter of 2021, according to Statistics New Zealand.

Source: Reuters

The fringe far-right Sanseito party emerged as one of the biggest winners in Japan's upper house election on Sunday, gaining support with warnings of a "silent invasion" of immigrants, and pledges for tax cuts and welfare spending.

Birthed on YouTube during the COVID-19 pandemic spreading conspiracy theories about vaccinations and a cabal of global elites, the party broke into mainstream politics with its "Japanese First" campaign.

The party won 14 seats adding to the single lawmaker it secured in the 248-seat chamber three years ago. It has only three seats in the more powerful lower house.

"The phrase Japanese First was meant to express rebuilding Japanese people's livelihoods by resisting globalism. I am not saying that we should completely ban foreigners or that every foreigner should get out of Japan," Sohei Kamiya, the party's 47-year-old leader, said in an interview with local broadcaster Nippon Television after the election.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the upper house, leaving them further beholden to opposition support following a lower house defeat in October.

"Sanseito has become the talk of the town, and particularly here in America, because of the whole populist and anti-foreign sentiment. It's more of a weakness of the LDP and Ishiba than anything else," said Joshua Walker, head of the U.S. non-profit Japan Society.

In polling ahead of Sunday's election, 29% of voters told NHK that social security and a declining birthrate were their biggest concern. A total of 28% said they worried about rising rice prices, which have doubled in the past year. Immigration was in joint fifth place with 7% of respondents pointing to it.

"We were criticized as being xenophobic and discriminatory. The public came to understand that the media was wrong and Sanseito was right," Kamiya said.

Kamiya's message grabbed voters frustrated with a weak economy and currency that has lured tourists in record numbers in recent years, further driving up prices that Japanese can ill afford, political analysts say.

Japan's fast-ageing society has also seen foreign-born residents hit a record of about 3.8 million last year, though that is just 3% of the total population, a fraction of the corresponding proportion in the United States and Europe.

INSPIRED BY TRUMP

Kamiya, a former supermarket manager and English teacher, told Reuters before the election that he had drawn inspiration from U.S. President Donald Trump's "bold political style".

He has also drawn comparisons with Germany's AfD and Reform UK although right-wing populist policies have yet to take root in Japan as they have in Europe and the United States.

Post-election, Kamiya said he plans to follow the example of Europe's emerging populist parties by building alliances with other small parties rather than work with an LDP administration, which has ruled for most of Japan's postwar history.

Sanseito’s focus on immigration has already shifted Japan's politics to the right. Just days before the vote, Ishiba’s administration announced a new government taskforce to fight "crimes and disorderly conduct" by foreign nationals and his party has promised a target of "zero illegal foreigners".

Kamiya, who won the party's first seat in 2022 after gaining notoriety for appearing to call for Japan's emperor to take concubines, has tried to tone down some controversial ideas formerly embraced by the party.

During the campaign, Kamiya, however, faced a backlash for branding gender equality policies a mistake that encourage women to work and keep them from having children.

To soften what he said was his "hot-blooded" image and to broaden support beyond the men in their twenties and thirties that form the core of Sanseito's support, Kamiya fielded a raft of female candidates on Sunday.

Those included the single-named singer Saya, who clinched a seat in Tokyo.

Like other opposition parties, Sanseito called for tax cuts and an increase in child benefits, policies that led investors to fret about Japan's fiscal health and massive debt pile, but unlike them it has a far bigger online presence from where it can attack Japan's political establishment.

Its YouTube channel has 400,000 followers, more than any other party on the platform and three times that of the LDP, according to socialcounts.org.

Sanseito's upper house breakthrough, Kamiya said, is just the beginning.

"We are gradually increasing our numbers and living up to people's expectations. By building a solid organization and securing 50 or 60 seats, I believe our policies will finally become reality," he said.

Reporting by Tim Kelly and John Geddie and Kantaro Komiya; Editing by Clarence Fernandez, Dale Hudson and Lincoln Feast.

Source: Reuters

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that Aug. 1 is the deadline for countries to begin paying tariffs to the United States, but said that "nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1."

"That's a hard deadline, so on August 1, the new tariff rates will come in," Lutnick said on CBS News, when asked about the deadline for his tariffs on the European Union.

President Donald Trump's tariff deadline has shifted since he announced his steep levies on trading partners on April 2, but White House officials now maintain that Aug. 1 is a firm deadline.

"Nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1, but they're going to start paying the tariffs on August 1," Lutnick said.

Lutnick said that some small countries, "the Latin American countries, the Caribbean countries, many countries in Africa," would have a baseline tariff of 10%.

Lutnick's comments could bring relief for nations anxiously awaiting a definitive decision on tariff rates from Trump, who recently suggested that baseline tariff rates for these nations could be over 10%.

The president announced last week that letters to smaller countries would be sent out soon. "We'll probably set one tariff for all of them ... probably a little over 10%," Trump said.

Lutnick added that "the bigger economies will either open themselves up or they'll pay a fair tariff to America."

Lutnick's comments come after Trump earlier this month sent letters to trading partners notifying them of the new tariff rates, which reached as high as 40% for some nations.

The letters, posted on Trump's Truth Social, said that tariffs would take effect Aug. 1, prompting last-minute negotiations from trading partners seeking a lower rate.

Source: CNBC

Upper house in Sunday's election, public broadcaster NHK reported , an outcome that further weakens Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's grip on power as a tariff deadline with the United States looms.

While the ballot does not directly determine whether Ishiba's administration will fall, it heaps political pressure on the embattled leader who also lost control of the more powerful lower house in October.

Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito were certain to fall short of the 50 seats needed to secure the 248-seat upper chamber in an election where half the seats were up for grabs, NHK said early on Monday, with six seats still to call.

That comes on top of its worst showing in 15 years in October's lower house election, a vote which has left Ishiba's administration vulnerable to no-confidence motions and calls from within his own party for leadership change.

Speaking late on Sunday evening after exit polls closed, Ishiba told NHK he "solemnly" accepted the "harsh result".

"We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the United States...we must never ruin these negotiations. It is only natural to devote our complete dedication and energy to realizing our national interests," he later told TV Tokyo.

Asked whether he intended to stay on as prime minister and party leader, he said "that's right".

Japan, the world's fourth largest economy, faces a deadline of August 1 to strike a trade deal with the United States or face punishing tariffs in its largest export market.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party was set to finish second, vote counts showed.

The fringe far-right Sanseito party, birthed on YouTube a few years ago, announced its arrival in mainstream politics with its 'Japanese First' campaign and warnings about a "silent invasion" of foreigners winning broader support. It was set to add at least 13 seats to one elected previously.

'HAMMERED HOME'

Opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and welfare spending struck a chord with voters, as rising consumer prices - particularly a jump in the cost of rice - have sowed frustration at the government's response.

Item 1 of 10 Election officials count votes at a ballot counting centre for Japan's upper house election in Tokyo, Japan, July 20, 2025. REUTERS/Manami Yamada

[1/10]Election officials count votes at a ballot counting centre for Japan's upper house election in Tokyo, Japan, July 20, 2025. REUTERS/Manami Yamada Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

"The LDP was largely playing defence in this election, being on the wrong side of a key voter issue," said David Boling, a director at consulting firm Eurasia Group.

"Polls show that most households want a cut to the consumption tax to address inflation, something that the LDP opposes. Opposition parties seized on it and hammered that message home."

The LDP has been urging fiscal restraint, with one eye on a very jittery government bond market, as investors worry about Japan's ability to refinance the world's largest debt pile. Any concessions the LDP must now strike with opposition parties to pass policy will only further elevate those nerves, analysts say.

"The ruling party will have to compromise in order to gain the cooperation of the opposition, and the budget will continue to expand," said Yu Uchiyama, a politics professor at the University of Tokyo.

"Overseas investors' evaluation of the Japan economy will also be quite harsh."

Sanseito, which first emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic spreading conspiracy theories about vaccinations and a cabal of global elites, is among those advocating fiscal expansion.

But it is its tough talk on immigration that has grabbed attention, dragging once-fringe political rhetoric into the mainstream.

It remains to be seen whether the party can follow the path of other far-right parties with which it has drawn comparisons, such as Germany's AfD and Reform UK.

"I am attending graduate school but there are no Japanese around me. All of them are foreigners," said Yu Nagai, a 25-year-old student who voted for Sanseito earlier on Sunday.

"When I look at the way compensation and money are spent on foreigners, I think that Japanese people are a bit disrespected," Nagai said after casting his ballot at a polling station in Tokyo's Shinjuku ward.

Japan, the world's oldest society, saw foreign-born residents hit a record of about 3.8 million last year.

That is still just 3% of the total population, a much smaller fraction than in the United States and Europe, but comes amid a tourism boom that has made foreigners far more visible across the country.

Source: Reuters

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