USDJPY Surges Strongly; 160.00 May Be Just the Beginning

Forex

Summary:

Yesterday, the U.S. released September non-farm payroll data that far exceeded expectations, which will provide continued support for the U.S. dollar in the short term, thereby pushing the USDJPY to continue to rise.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

156.717

Entry Price

160.100

155.200

155.446 +0.101 +0.07%

151.7

Pips

Loss

155.200

155.197

Exit Price

156.717

Entry Price

160.100

Fundamentals

The non-farm employment data released by the U.S. yesterday significantly exceeded expectations: in September, non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, surpassing the market forecast of 50,000. This unexpected growth prompted the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's timing for interest rate cuts and the dollar's valuation in the short term. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate modestly rose to 4.4%, with wage growth remaining moderate, indicating ongoing employment structural differentiation.

From a forex transmission perspective, the better-than-expected non-farm figures initially supported the dollar's tone—market expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates in the near term have been reinstated, leading to continued capital inflows into USD assets. As for the yen, the immediate consequence of the dollar's strength is the renewed upward momentum in USDJPY, igniting short-term bullish sentiment. Several forex institutions and research firms reported that USDJPY is testing key resistance levels with room to push higher.

However, the data also carry some cautious signals: the rise in unemployment and moderate wage growth suggest that the economy is not overheating across the board. If future data weaken over the coming months, expectations for interest rate cuts could increase again, making the dollar's strength difficult to sustain long-term. This indicates that trading strategies should primarily focus on short-term dollar momentum while maintaining a cautious mid-term approach.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY Surges Strongly; 160.00 May Be Just the Beginning_1

In the 1D timeframe, after breaking out of the triangle consolidation pattern, the USDJPY has recently demonstrated a strong upward momentum. The primary resistance level to monitor is at 158.86. A decisive break above this level could further extend the bullish move, potentially targeting the 160.00 psychological resistance.

It is recommended to use the 4H MA20 or the 1D MA5 as support levels, going long at the lows.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 156.85

Target Price: 160.10

Stop Loss: 155.20

Valid Until: December 5, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 156.80, 155.45

Resistance: 158.86, 160.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Manuel

Commodity

Central Bank

Summary:

The price has shown a distinct upward reaction after approaching this zone. If this pattern of support holds true once more, it could trigger a new bullish impulse from this area.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4079.39

Entry Price

4180.00

4000.00

4207.86 +9.95 +0.24%

1006.1

Pips

Profit

4000.00

4180.57

Exit Price

4079.39

Entry Price

4180.00

Recent U.S. labor data has sent mixed signals. September's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 119,000, comfortably surpassing the market expectation of a 50,000 increase. However, the August reading was sharply revised downward, showing a loss of 4,000 jobs instead of the previously reported gain of 22,000. The Unemployment Rate also ticked up to 4.4%, modestly above the 4.3% estimate, reaching its highest level in four years.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 100.18. This sees the index hovering near its highest levels since August and revisiting territory last seen on November 5th, reflecting persistent strength in the Greenback.

Wage growth showed moderation, with Average Hourly Earnings rising 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, falling slightly short of the 0.3% expectation and softer than the previous 0.4% rise. On an annual basis, wages expanded by 3.8%, matching the prior reading and marginally beating the 3.7% forecast. Meanwhile, Average Weekly Hours remained stable at 34.2, meeting expectations.

The latest labor market data from the U.S. continues to signal deceleration. The ADP report indicated that U.S. private payrolls recorded a weekly average decline of 2,500 in the four weeks leading up to November 1st, a notable improvement from the steeper 11,250 average loss observed in the preceding period. Separately, August Factory Orders expanded by 1.4% MoM, which met consensus estimates and successfully reversed the 1.3% contraction recorded in July.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller adopted a distinctly dovish tone on Tuesday, characterizing the U.S. labor market as "weak" and "near stalling speed." He suggested that the current restrictive policy appears to be dampening economic activity and reiterated his view that a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting would provide "additional assurance" for the stability of the labor market.

Commentary from other Federal Reserve officials remains highly divergent. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson offered cautious, slightly dovish remarks on Monday, acknowledging growing risks to employment. Conversely, Kansas City Fed President Jeffery Schmid argued that the current policy stance is "moderately restrictive," which he deems appropriate to counter demand growth. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem suggested that rates are now closer to neutral than restrictive, emphasizing the limited scope for easing without risking an overly accommodative stance. In contrast, the Fed's Thomas Barkin offered a more balanced evaluation, noting that "it's hard to declare victory on either mandate" and acknowledging that while the labor market is weakening, it may not weaken much further. Gold Bulls Eye Breakout as Price Consolidates Above Key Moving Averages_1

Gold Bulls Eye Breakout as Price Consolidates Above Key Moving Averages_1

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) has entered a clear phase of consolidation following two exceptionally strong bullish impulses. Price action has recently found decisive support near the 200-period Moving Average (MA) on the 4-hour chart, currently located at $4,080, while the 100-period MA sits just below at $4,054.

The price has shown a distinct upward reaction after approaching this zone. If this pattern of support holds true once more, it could trigger a new bullish impulse from this area. Crucially, a key ascending trendline aligns very closely with these moving average levels, adding significant technical pressure for a rally from this support cluster.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently stable at the 49 level, indicating neutral sentiment. The price is also forming a symmetrical triangle pattern that is visibly tightening, suggesting a breakout could be imminent in either direction. Given the prevailing technical factors—specifically the trendline and MA support confluence—bullish positions are favored. Should the price push upward and break the descending trendline resistance of the triangle, it would pave the way for a more extended move higher. However, a breakdown below the ascending trendline support would signal a deeper bearish correction.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 4078

Target price: 4180

Stop loss: 4000

Validity: Dec 03, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

If this historical price action is repeated, short positions would be favored from this resistance zone, targeting 0.7984, the next local support level.

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.80553

Entry Price

0.79850

0.81150

0.80448 -0.00007 -0.01%

8.2

Pips

Profit

0.79850

0.80471

Exit Price

0.80553

Entry Price

0.81150

The latest labor market data from the U.S. continues to signal deceleration. The ADP report indicated that U.S. private payrolls recorded a weekly average decline of 2,500 in the four weeks leading up to November 1st, a notable improvement from the steeper 11,250 average loss observed in the preceding period. Separately, August Factory Orders expanded by 1.4% month-over-month (MoM), which met consensus estimates and successfully reversed the 1.3% contraction recorded in July.

Adding to the complexity, President Donald Trump reversed previously imposed tariffs on over 200 consumer products, including coffee and orange juice. This decision was reportedly driven by an acknowledgment of the inflationary impact resulting from increased import costs. Despite the economic rationale, the immediate market reaction to this tariff news remained marginal.

In contrast, the Fed’s Thomas Barkin offered a more balanced evaluation, noting that "it’s hard to declare victory on either mandate" and emphasizing that inflation, while above target, is unlikely to re-accelerate. Barkin acknowledged that the labor market is weakening but argued that it may not weaken much further, adding that the job market appears "somewhat softer than the data suggests."

Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to grapple with the headwinds of a strong Franc, weak domestic inflation, and modest economic growth. In comments made earlier this month, SNB Board Member Petra Tschudin stated that the central bank is "in a good position with the current interest rates," noting that inflation projections remain within its target range of 0-2%. She also indicated that the SNB does not currently see a case for cutting rates below zero, though such a move cannot be ruled out if conditions change. Bearish Reversal Looms as Head and Shoulders Pattern Takes Shape_1

Bearish Reversal Looms as Head and Shoulders Pattern Takes Shape_1

Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair is displaying a significant technical formation on the candlestick chart known as a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern.The appearance of this pattern is a strong indication of a potential trend reversal to the downside. The price recently rallied to 0.8076, a level previously touched on October 9th. On that prior occasion, the price reacted sharply downward from this exact point. If this historical price action is repeated, short positions would be favored from this resistance zone, targeting 0.7984, the next local support level. This target zone is particularly critical as it aligns closely with the 0.618 and 0.50% Fibonacci retracement levels, which often act as magnet targets for significant market pullbacks.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached a high of 72.97, moving clearly into overbought territory. This extreme reading suggests that bullish momentum is exhausted and could invite bears to take control of the next price movement. The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are situated at 0.8022 and 0.7998, respectively. These levels sit near the midpoint of the price's recent range since early October, making them a natural magnet for the price toward the primary support zone. Conversely, a strong move above the current local high would invalidate the bearish H&S setup and open the door for a renewed move to the upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.8053

Target price: 0.7985

Stop loss: 0.8115

Validity: Dec 03, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

Australia’s wage price index rose 0.8% QoQ in Q3, with the private sector lagging. RBA officials have sounded a hawkish note, and the cash rate is now expected to remain unchanged until 2026.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64360

Entry Price

0.66780

0.63700

0.66377 -0.00006 -0.01%

78.9

Pips

Profit

0.63700

0.65149

Exit Price

0.64360

Entry Price

0.66780

Fundamentals

AUDUSD retained its corrective bounce near 0.6464 through the Asian and European sessions on Thursday after printing a five-week low of 0.6450. Persistent hawkish push-back from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials continues to undergird the currency.

Wednesday’s data showed the wage price index (WPI) advancing 0.8% QoQ in Q3, in line with consensus and unchanged from Q2.

The headline stability masks modest sectoral divergence: private-sector wages grew 0.7% QoQ while public-sector wages rose 0.9% QoQ extending their recent out-performance.

In annual terms, wages were 3.4% higher than a year earlier, matching Q2. Public-sector pay growth ticked up to 3.8% YoY (vs. 3.7% in Q2), whereas private-sector growth slowed to 3.2% YoY from 3.5% in Sep-2024—marking a third consecutive quarter in which public-sector wage momentum has outpaced the private sector.

Market insight: Australia’s YoY wage momentum remains elevated against a backdrop of tight labour markets and anaemic productivity growth, implying that disinflationary progress could be protracted and complicating the policy calculus for the RBA.

RBA has delivered rate cuts on three occasions this year, taking the cash rate to 3.60%, but it retains a data-dependent, cautiously balanced stance. With the labour market still tight and productivity subdued, the policy debate is shifting toward the extent of further easing space. Yet with unemployment near historic lows, tentative signs of inflation re-acceleration and consumer spending running ahead of expectations, the Board is closely monitoring corporate pricing behaviour.

Governor Michele Bullock has hinted that near-term policy easing is unlikely. Our base case is for the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold through 2026.

Still-Elevated Wage Growth and the RBA’s Hawkish Tilt Underpin the Aussie Rebound_1

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD has staged a mild intraday recovery. A break below the 0.6413 region (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.5913–0.6706 range) would expose the 0.6403 handle and open the door to a deeper bearish extension.

On the upside, a sustained move above the near-term resistance at 0.6517 would neutralise the intraday bearish bias.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 0.6436

Target Price: 0.6678

Stop Loss: 0.6370

Valid Until: December 5, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 0.6464/0.6450/0.6413

Resistance Levels: 0.6492/0.6517/0.6537

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

A Policy Board member signals the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could lift rates "as early as December," while Chief Cabinet Secretary urges vigilance against "one-sided, abrupt FX moves."

SELL USDJPY

EXP

EXPIRED

160.000

Entry Price

153.250

162.500

155.446 +0.101 +0.07%

Pips

EXPIRED

153.250

155.345

Exit Price

160.000

Entry Price

162.500

Fundamentals

Amid the JPY pair falling to its lowest level against USD in roughly ten months, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Board member Junko Koeda on Thursday signaled that a rate hike could come as early as next month and underscored the need to advance interest-rate normalization.

Speaking to local business leaders in Niigata, Koeda said: "Given that real interest rates are currently at a significantly low level, I believe the Bank must proceed with normalizing policy rates."

Following her remarks, JPY extended its decline against USD, suggesting investors may be awaiting a more unambiguous tightening signal. The market consensus now expects the BoJ to raise rates no later than January, while Koeda's comments have reinforced the possibility of a December move.

Separately, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara Minoru told reporters on Thursday that the recent one-way, rapid moves in the yen are "a source of concern" and warrant close monitoring. "We need to be vigilant against excessive and disorderly exchange-rate fluctuations," he said, speaking after JPY breached the 157.00 against USD handle to hit its weakest level since January.

A key driver of the stronger dollar and weaker yen has been the ebbing market conviction that the Fed will cut rates in the near term. Kihara stressed that exchange-rate stability grounded in economic fundamentals is essential, opposing sharp moves fueled by speculative flows or market sentiment.

Market watch: The cabinet secretary's warning about "one-way yen volatility" is likely to raise bets on imminent FX intervention. Each time Japanese officials issue such language, traders speculate that the authorities are poised to step in, prompting both longs and shorts to add size in an effort to test the government's threshold. Rather than deterring speculation, this dynamic often fuels two-way whipsaw moves as investors probe "where Tokyo draws the line."

BoJ Hawkish Talk and Government Warning Spark Yen Whipsaw_1

Technical Analysis

USDJPY accelerated to the upside today. The intraday bias remains bullish, with the initial target at the key structural resistance of 158.85, followed by the 161.8% extension of the 149.37–153.26 range at 160.17.

On the downside, a break below the minor support at 155.72 would neutralize the intraday outlook and trigger a consolidation phase before another potential leg higher. The trading strategy for this phase is to position for the next directional move.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 160.00

Target Price: 153.25

Stop Loss: 162.50

Valid Until: December 5, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 158.88/156.76/154.81

Resistance Levels: 158.91/160.21/161.78

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Forex

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The US Dollar strengthened broadly on Thursday as markets slashed expectations for a December rate cut, with hawkish Fed minutes reinforcing a bullish technical setup and positioning the USD Index for a potential breakout toward medium-term resistance.

BUY USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

100.300

Entry Price

102.000

99.000

98.880 -0.070 -0.07%

130.0

Pips

Loss

99.000

Exit Price

100.300

Entry Price

102.000

The US Dollar advanced firmly across major currency pairs on Thursday, lifted by a sweeping repricing of Federal Reserve expectations and a technical landscape that continues to skew in favor of the bulls. The USD Index (DXY) climbed into the 100.35–100.50 region — a critical ceiling that capped upside attempts in May, August, and early November — as investors increasingly retreat from earlier assumptions that the Fed will cut rates again in December.

The move follows the release of hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, which fueled renewed USD demand already supported by risk-averse market sentiment earlier in the week. While the Fed delivered a quarter-point rate cut on October 29, the minutes revealed a surprisingly divided committee, with “many” officials opposing the decision — a signal that policymakers remain hesitant about easing too aggressively while inflation risks linger.

For investors, the message was simple: the Fed is nowhere near unanimous on additional easing, and the December meeting could be far less dovish than the market had priced in. As a result, rate-cut odds receded sharply, giving the Dollar fresh momentum at a time when global growth concerns and softer equity sentiment already favored safe-haven flows.

The Fed’s internal disagreement has forced traders to reassess the policy outlook going into year-end. While October’s rate cut was largely seen as part of a dovish pivot, the minutes suggest the central bank is not prepared to commit to a multi-step easing cycle without more evidence of economic cooling.

The next major catalyst arrives Friday with the long-delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls figures. Economists expect the US economy to have added 55,000 jobs — an improvement from August’s meager 22,000, yet still well below the 2024 monthly average. A stronger-than-expected print would further complicate the case for easing and could embolden USD bulls ahead of the December 10 Fed meeting.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, DXY continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel, carving out higher lows while maintaining structure above mid-channel support. This pattern has held steady throughout the autumn, with the October rate-cut reaction generating a clean bullish leg that may now be developing into a broader impulsive wave.

The current pullback is unfolding precisely at a key demand zone that aligns with channel support — a confluence typically associated with continuation setups rather than reversals. Higher-timeframe supply remains overhead, yet with structure intact, the narrative increasingly favors additional USD appreciation.

For conviction of a sustained breakout, traders are watching the daily resistance at 100.54. A clean move above this zone — which has repeatedly rejected bulls since May — would open a relatively unobstructed path toward 102.00, a major daily resistance level reinforced by the 50-month SMA. This confluence serves as a clear medium-term target for Dollar bulls and could define the next phase of the USD’s broader recovery.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY DXY

ENTRY PRICE: 100.30

STOP LOSS: 99.00

TAKE PROFIT: 102.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

EUR/USD extends its losing streak to five sessions, pressured by a surging U.S. Dollar after hawkish Fed minutes slashed expectations for December rate cuts.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.15150

Entry Price

1.14670

1.15700

1.16519 +0.00093 +0.08%

55.0

Pips

Loss

1.14670

1.15701

Exit Price

1.15150

Entry Price

1.15700

EUR/USD extended its decline for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday, sliding to 1.1525 during the European trading hours after failing to hold above the 1.1600 handle on Wednesday. The renewed weakness in the euro comes as the U.S. Dollar continues to assert dominance across the FX board, bolstered by a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes and a cautious market mood ahead of the September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release.

The Fed minutes, published late Wednesday, reaffirmed policymakers’ strong reluctance to cut interest rates prematurely. According to the document, many officials expressed concern that easing too soon could undermine progress in the inflation fight and risk eroding public confidence in the central bank’s credibility. This marks one of the more hawkish shifts in tone seen in months, effectively cooling a wave of dovish bets that had built up through October and early November.

Market pricing adjusted swiftly. The probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting plunged below 30%, down from 50% just a day earlier and more than 90% only a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The sharp repricing has revived the Greenback’s bullish momentum, with traders re-entering long-dollar positions as U.S. yields stabilize at elevated levels.

The euro, meanwhile, faced its own headwinds. Eurozone Construction Output data revealed a deepening contraction in September, amplifying concerns about Europe’s weakening growth profile. The bloc continues to struggle with feeble industrial activity and softening labor-market indicators, all while inflation trends lower at a pace that underscores policymakers' concerns about stagnation.

Later today, investors will scrutinize Germany’s Bundesbank Monthly Report for fresh insight into the Eurozone’s largest economy, which has been battling persistent manufacturing weakness. Markets will also monitor the European Commission’s preliminary November Consumer Confidence data—figures that could influence sentiment toward the euro should households signal deeper pessimism heading into the winter months.

Across the Atlantic, focus is locked squarely on Friday’s NFP report, with markets looking for clearer signals on the resilience of the U.S. labor market. A stronger-than-expected print would likely reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance and add further downside pressure on EUR/USD, while a softer figure may offer temporary relief for the pair. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey is also on traders’ radar as a secondary risk catalyst.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD attempted a brief intraday rebound on Thursday, but the bounce appears shallow and primarily driven by oversold conditions on momentum indicators rather than genuine buying conviction. Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings show tentative positive signals, yet the pair continues to trade below a minor descending trendline that has guided price action throughout November.

The broader structure remains decisively bearish. The sustained inability to hold above 1.1600 confirms sellers’ control, with the next notable support zone located near 1.1467. A decisive break below that level would open the door to deeper losses, particularly if U.S. data continues to outperform Eurozone figures.