Gold staged a strong rebound after plunging for two consecutive trading days, poised to post its biggest single-day gain since 2008 on Tuesday. Silver also rose in tandem.

The current bull market for precious metals will continue, with prices set to reach new all-time highs later this year. Considering the market's rather irrational behavior in recent weeks, current prices have largely returned to a relatively reasonable range. They are now essentially back to the levels seen in the first half of January.

Trump's nomination of Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair triggered a sharp pullback in precious metals markets. The market reaction to Warsh's nomination was to view him as a relatively credible candidate, leading to a strengthening of the dollar. This, in a sense, burst the previous bubble in precious metals.

Due to the partial U.S. government shutdown, the release of the December 2025 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the nonfarm payrolls report will be delayed. Consequently, the price movements of the U.S. dollar will continue to influence the trajectory of the XAUUSD exchange rate.

Gold prices demonstrated resilience after breaching the 50-day SMA during the recent decline, stabilizing and rebounding around the US$4,400 level on Monday. Although prices briefly fell below the SMA, the 50-day SMA continues to maintain an upward slope, suggesting the medium-term trend remains intact. Any pullback is more likely to find technical support.

Currently, gold prices remain firmly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (around the US$4,645–US$4,650 range), with this range forming a key short-term support zone. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded above 60, indicating that momentum is stabilizing. The market has not yet entered a clearly oversold or one-sided downward trend.

However, momentum indicators remain cautiously neutral. The MACD line continues to run below the signal line and remains below the zero-axis, with negative histograms expanding. This indicates that downward momentum has not yet fully dissipated, and short-term bears still hold a certain advantage. Against this backdrop, any rebound is more likely to be viewed as a corrective rally. Should prices extend higher, they will retest the psychological threshold of US$5,000. Conversely, if the current support zone is breached, gold prices may transition into a longer-term pattern of high-level consolidation and range-bound trading.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4845

Target Price: 5160

Stop Loss: 4745

Valid Until: February 28, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 4845, 4814, 4746

Resistance: 4933, 4950, 4984

The Euro is teetering on the brink of a significant technical abyss against the Pound Sterling, trading with a distinct limp near 0.8620 in Tuesday’s early European dealings. This level, a precarious five-month trough, is not merely a numerical blip on a screen but a stark reflection of the intensifying macroeconomic divergence narrative gripping traders ahead of a seismic Thursday. On that day, the monetary policy fate of two of Europe’s largest economies will be decided simultaneously, as both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) deliver their latest verdicts. The current price action suggests the market is placing its bets—and they are not on the single currency.

While consensus overwhelmingly expects both institutions to hold their respective policy rates steady—the ECB’s Deposit Facility Rate at 4.00% and the BoE’s Bank Rate at 5.25%—the devil, as always, is in the detail, the tone, and the forward guidance. The perceived fragility of the Euro stems from a building narrative of a more urgent and imminent easing cycle from Frankfurt compared to London.

The ECB’s challenge is one of managed retreat. With Eurozone headline inflation having plummeted from its stratospheric peaks to brush against the bank’s 2% target, the debate has decisively shifted from if to when and how fast. Tomorrow’s preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for January is critical stage-setting. Forecasts point to a further cooling, with the headline figure expected to decelerate to an annual 1.7% from December’s 1.9%. More crucially, the core measure—stripped of volatile food and energy—is seen holding at 2.3%. A print at or below these levels will be interpreted as a green light for ECB President Christine Lagarde to begin laying the groundwork for a potential rate cut as early as the second quarter, perhaps April. The market hears the doves cooing, and it is selling euros in anticipation.

Contrast this with the landscape facing the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. The UK’s inflation demon has proven more tenacious. December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) shockingly re-accelerated to 3.4%, interrupting a steady disinflationary trend and serving as a cold reminder of persistent domestic price pressures, particularly in services. This data point alone acts as a powerful deterrent against any notion of a swift policy pivot.

Furthermore, the BoE finds itself in a subtly different phase of its cycle. Having already executed a pre-emptive 25-basis-point cut in December—a move that caught some off guard and framed as the start of a "gradual downward path"—Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues can afford, and indeed are compelled, to preach patience. They are likely to emphasize that the full impact of their previous historic tightening has yet to cascade fully through the UK economy, and with wage growth still elevated, a reckless rush to ease could re-anchor inflation expectations. The message on Thursday will be one of cautious, data-dependent gradualism, with June or even August now eyed as the probable starting point for a follow-up cut.

In a decisive shift of fortune, the Euro stumbled against a broadly fortified US Dollar during Tuesday’s session, with the EUR/USD pair relinquishing its fragile hold above the 1.1800 handle. As of this writing, the pair trades at approximately 1.1785, a move that underscores the market’s swift reassessment of near-term catalysts and a clear preference for Dollar-denominated assets amid a confluence of supportive developments.

From where I sit, this isn’t merely a technical correction; it’s a testament to the Dollar’s enduring ability to draw strength from multiple fronts—geopolitical, economic, and trade-oriented—even amidst domestic political uncertainty. The narrative from Monday bled decisively into Tuesday’s price action, fueled by two significant pillars.

First, and most tangibly, was the announcement from the White House. President Donald Trump’s revelation of a new trade agreement with India, which will see U.S. tariffs on certain Indian products slashed to 18% from a steep 50%, resonated deeply with the market. This deal, albeit specific, is being interpreted as a strategic de-escalation in global trade tensions and a win for U.S. economic diplomacy. It signals a proactive, deal-making approach that investors have often rewarded with Dollar confidence, easing fears of a protracted, multi-front trade war that could ultimately harm U.S. growth.

Second, and adding a layer of geopolitical risk premium being stripped from the market, were comments from Iran’s newly elected President, Masoud Pezeshkian. His stated willingness to resume nuclear negotiations with the United States provided an immediate, if cautious, sigh of relief. Reduced tensions in the perpetually volatile Middle East traditionally undermine safe-haven flows, but in this configuration, it appears to have removed a potential obstacle to global growth and solidified the Dollar’s position as the beneficiary of a relative improvement in stability.

Beneath these headlines, the macroeconomic foundation for the Dollar’s rally was laid by exceptionally robust data. Monday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US outperformed expectations, painting a picture of a resilient industrial sector. This strength effectively offset simmering anxieties about an impending partial government shutdown—a political headache that, while disruptive, is viewed by the market as a temporary impediment rather than a systemic threat. The strong data reminds everyone that the underlying engine of the US economy continues to fire, keeping the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory in focus and away from any premature dovish pivot.

The looming partial shutdown, which threatens to delay Friday’s critical Nonfarm Payrolls report, has become a secondary concern for now. The market is choosing to focus on the hard data it has in hand, and that data is Dollar-positive.

Looking ahead, the calendar demands our close attention. Later today, remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman will be parsed for any nuance on the balance sheet or interest rate path. The spotlight then intensifies on Wednesday with the release of the ADP private employment report, a often-volatile precursor to the official jobs data. A strong reading there could further cement the Dollar’s gains.

However, the real potential for volatility lurks on Thursday with the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision. The ECB finds itself in a profoundly delicate position, grappling with stagnant growth, dangerously low inflation expectations, and limited policy ammunition. Any hint of further accommodation or a profoundly dovish outlook could exacerbate the Euro’s current weakness. From my analysis, the risk is skewed towards President Christine Lagarde underscoring the Eurozone’s profound economic challenges, a scenario that would likely widen the policy divergence gap with the Fed and pressurize EUR/USD further.

President Trump's nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair prompted a market repricing of the Fed's future monetary stance. Concerns about a "more hawkish monetary policy leading to liquidity contraction" drove the dollar higher and compressed risk asset allocations, directly triggering large-scale liquidations in the short term. Media and exchange data indicate billions of dollars in forced liquidations and clearing events occurred during this period of intense volatility, with the rapid shift in funding from long to short positions exacerbating the downward price pressure.

Concurrently, institutional fund flows are also evolving. Although spot ETFs have long served as a stable buying channel for Bitcoin, recent weeks have seen net outflows or volatility (characterized by persistent net outflows alongside short-term daily inflows). This makes the price more susceptible to sharp declines on negative news. However, reports suggest large holders ("whales") are accumulating positions in batches during pullbacks, implying that the foundational demand for Bitcoin remains intact in the medium to long term. This suggests that opportunities to buy the dip may exist following short-term forced selling.

In the 1D timeframe, Bitcoin experienced a rapid decline recently due to market shocks triggered by news events. The price briefly dipped below US$75,000, but the closing price remained firmly above this level, indicating strong support. Furthermore, yesterday's long-lower-shadowed positive candlestick formation at this price point has bolstered short-term bullish momentum, suggesting a potential rebound and recovery in the near term.

Currently, the key support level for Bitcoin is US$75,000. A breach of this level could lead to a deeper decline towards the US$70,000 mark. The overhead resistance levels to monitor are US$80,000-US$85,000. A decisive breakout and sustained hold above US$85,000 would open up the upward trajectory towards US$98,000.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 78500

Target Price: 88000

Stop Loss: 74000

Valid Until: February 17, 2026 23:00:00

Support: 75000, 70000

Resistance: 80000, 85000

Gold is not a simple momentum commodity. It is a weight-based market that pretends to trade like a virtual asset. Supply does not change at will — you cannot ring a bell and summon new gold supply next quarter. When demand accelerates, prices do not soar in celebration; instead, rationing occurs. Prices rise because the market must increase the price per ounce to slow the influx of buyers. This is once again basic supply-and-demand dynamics at work. Rather than viewing gold as a stock whose valuation climbs, imagine it as a narrow bridge where a convoy of vehicles rushes onto it simultaneously. Price increases are not due to euphoria but are an inevitable result of structural stress under heavy load. Sometimes the bridge charges high tolls to limit traffic; sometimes, due to mispricing, leverage accumulates until the bridge collapses without warning, hurling overloaded vehicles off its surface. The most direct way to understand such congestion is to look at actual trading volume rather than market sentiment. Central banks are the true price setters — they write the checks that determine market direction. History provides ironclad proof. Gregory Shearer and his team at J.P. Morgan asked the right question, measuring not in dollars but in tons. Their argument is simple yet powerful: gold supply does not respond to artificial adjustments. In the short term, gold supply is inelastic, meaning that when demand accelerates, prices are forced into rationing mode. Unless the latent demand from investors and central banks cools, market sentiment cannot rebalance; instead, prices will rise enough to reduce the tonnage of gold that existing capital can purchase. In their framework, this clearing price is far higher than most expect. Calculations show gold needs investor and central bank demand of roughly 380 tons per quarter to sustain upward momentum — a threshold that has barely changed even if traced back to 2010. Viewed differently, the implication is striking. Assuming nominal quarterly demand is just over $100 billion, gold prices would need to approach $8,000 or even $8,400 to compress demand below the historical breakeven point. Shearer makes clear this is not a complete model — it ignores jewelry demand, scrap supply, and potential shifts in official sector psychology. But the signal is unambiguous: rising prices degrade market liquidity, yet the current structure has not reached the breaking point. As long as central banks and large investors continue injecting funds on such a scale, gold will not peak. It remains in rationing mode. That said, this does not mean gold prices must fall to that level. Markets are not contracts of fate. It does mean the current rally is not a self-destructing tower propped up solely by euphoria. As prices climb, market pressure indeed grows — jewelry demand falls, global scrap supply rises. But the structural pillars of this rally have not yet snapped under their own weight. The conclusion is simple yet deeply unsettling: gold is expensive not because it looks expensive, but because central banks remain massive buyers of gold and are indifferent to price.

On the dollar side, Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair is a core factor supporting the dollar and a major force suppressing the New Zealand dollar's movement. On Friday, U.S. President Trump officially confirmed that Warsh will succeed Powell when his term ends in May. Although investor sentiment calmed slightly after the announcement, expectations of a tighter policy stance continued to lift the dollar, helping it hold key support levels. In terms of policy inclination, Warsh previously advocated shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. Recently, he voiced support for lowering market borrowing costs, but markets widely believe he remains cautious on inflation. CME FedWatch shows markets pricing in at least two rate cuts in 2026, yet Warsh's high sensitivity to inflation risks during his time as Fed Governor leads the market to anticipate a potentially hawkish policy path. Moreover, internal Fed policy disagreements further strengthen the dollar's short-term support. Atlanta Fed President Bostic has long resisted rate cuts and stated last week that the current size of the Fed's balance sheet is "about right," providing another positive catalyst for the dollar and cementing its strength. Data-wise, U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January, posting the fastest growth since 2022, driven by robust increases in new orders and output. According to data released Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped from 47.9 the previous month to 52.6, well above the expected 48.5. A reading above 50 signals economic expansion, and the latest figure exceeded all survey forecasts from economists. Key sub-indices showed: New Orders Index at 57.1 (previous 47.7), a nearly 10-point surge; Production Index also strengthened significantly — both showing the fastest growth in nearly four years. Employment Index at 48.1 (expected 46, previous 44.9) hit a one-year high, indicating manufacturing employment is still falling but at a slower pace. Prices Paid Index at 59, a four-month high (expected 59.3, previous 58.5), signaling manufacturers see little relief from elevated input costs. Order backlogs expanded for the first time since 2022. Export orders also increased.

Based on the 4-hour chart, gold shows a bullish engulfing pattern, suggesting a rebound is likely. It will probably retrace to near the Bollinger Middle Band and EMA50 levels of 5,095 and 4,969, respectively. MACD is about to form a golden cross — if it materializes, the rebound will continue; otherwise, prices may fall again. The RSI stands at 46, indicating that sellers currently dominate. The daily chart exhibits that Bollinger Bands are narrowing and moving averages are flat. After a bearish evening star pattern, prices continued lower with a large bearish candle — the short-term downtrend is not over. MACD shows a high-level death cross, with the MACD and signal lines pulling back toward the zero axis but still far away, indicating the decline is incomplete. Support lies at 4,100 and 3,900. RSI is at 54, reflecting strong market indecision. It is better to sell now and buy later.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 5050

Target price: 4300

Stop loss: 5200

Support: 4500/4200/4100

Resistance: 4900/5100/5200

In Canada, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI revealed a notable improvement, rebounding to 50.4 in January from the previous reading of 48.6. This shift signals a tentative return to expansionary territory for the Canadian industrial sector, albeit at a modest pace.

Commenting on the data, Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that after a challenging 2025, the latest PMI indicators suggest the Canadian manufacturing industry has entered the new year with a more constructive tone. According to Smith, production levels have finally stabilized following nearly twelve consecutive months of contraction. Furthermore, business confidence regarding future output has strengthened, and employment saw marginal growth for the first time in a year. Despite these domestic improvements, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains under significant pressure due to the sharp decline in global energy prices. As a premier crude exporter, Canada is highly sensitive to the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is currently trading near $61.78 per barrel—a steep daily decline exceeding 5.5%.

Meanwhile, in Australia, market participants have almost entirely priced in a 25-basis point hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which would elevate the official cash rate to 3.85%. This hawkish expectations shift is underpinned by a resilient domestic growth profile and clear evidence that inflationary pressures are regaining momentum. However, the central bank is expected to exercise prudence, likely refraining from providing explicit forward guidance.

The official policy decision is scheduled for Tuesday at 03:30 GMT, alongside the release of the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and updated quarterly economic projections. Shortly after, at 04:30 GMT, RBA Governor Michele Bullock will address the press. A perennially tight labor market, characterized by unemployment hovering near 4%, remains a cornerstone of the bank's restrictive stance. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) further supports this, with the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebounding to 3.8% year-over-year in December, surpassing market consensus.

On the macroeconomic front, broader indicators continue to suggest persistent price pressures, exemplified by the TD-MI Inflation Lead Indicator rising to 3.6% in January. Attention also remains fixed on China, Australia's primary trading partner, where the RatingDog Manufacturing PMI landed at 50.3, signaling a slight but welcome improvement in regional industrial activity.

The AUD/CAD pair remains entrenched in a definitive primary uptrend. Following a recent corrective phase, the price action gravitated toward the 100-period Moving Average on the 4-hour chart, currently situated at 0.9474.

The pair’s rapid bullish reaction from this level, combined with its inability to close decisively below the local support at 0.9452, suggests that bearish momentum is dissipating quickly. This failure to sustain lower prices indicates that buyers are stepping in aggressively at these value levels.

Our momentum analysis further corroborates this bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) descended rapidly to the 37 level, and while it has not reached oversold territory, it is exhibiting a clear hidden bullish divergence. This suggests that the underlying trend remains strong despite the temporary pullback. Additionally, the MACD is already printing positive histogram bars while remaining above the neutral zone, signaling that the bullish impulse is regaining control.

Based on this technical confluence, we anticipate a trend resumption with a primary upside target at the 0.618 Fibonacci expansion level, located at 0.9644. As long as the price maintains its integrity above the moving average cluster, the bias remains firmly in favor of the bulls.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.9520

Target price: 0.9640

Stop loss: 0.9440

Validity: Feb 13, 2026 15:00:00