USD/CHF Rises as Fed Holds Line on Rates, SNB Signals Dovish Tilt

Economic

Summary:

USD/CHF advances above 0.8250 as the U.S. Dollar strengthens on the back of the Fed's steady policy stance and renewed trade developments with the UK, while dovish signals from the Swiss National Bank weigh on the Franc.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.82601

Entry Price

0.83317

0.82000

0.80327 -0.00128 -0.16%

71.6

Pips

Profit

0.82000

0.83317

Exit Price

0.82601

Entry Price

0.83317

The USD/CHF pair extended its upward trajectory during the European session on Thursday, rising convincingly above the 0.8250 level. The move comes as the U.S. Dollar capitalized on a wave of macroeconomic clarity and hawkish undertones from the Federal Reserve, while the Swiss Franc came under pressure following dovish rhetoric from Swiss policymakers. Investors also reacted positively to the announcement of a forthcoming trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom, a development seen as supportive for the Greenback’s momentum in the near term.

The rally in the USD was underscored by comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who reiterated the central bank’s cautious stance at the conclusion of its latest policy meeting. For the third consecutive time, the Federal Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged, maintaining the benchmark federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The decision came amid elevated uncertainty regarding the broader economic outlook and the potential impacts of recent U.S. fiscal and regulatory measures.

“My gut tells me that uncertainty is extremely elevated,” Powell stated in his post-meeting remarks, reinforcing the Fed’s desire to wait for clearer economic signals before moving on rates. He also warned that risks to both inflation and the labor market now appear skewed to the upside, suggesting that policymakers are not ruling out additional tightening should price pressures persist. These comments were received by markets as subtly hawkish, breathing fresh life into the U.S. Dollar, with the Dollar Index (DXY) rallying to near 100.20.

Supporting the Greenback further was a fresh dose of geopolitical optimism. President Donald Trump confirmed that the White House had finalized a new bilateral trade agreement with a major ally, later identified by The New York Times as the United Kingdom. The deal is being interpreted as a strategic pivot to bolster transatlantic trade in the post-Brexit era and reduce global trade friction. While full details of the agreement remain under wraps, the announcement itself served to bolster investor confidence and reinforce the notion that the U.S. is pursuing proactive measures to stabilize its external economic relationships.

However, not all developments were straightforwardly bullish. Investors are bracing for potential volatility heading into the weekend, as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to hold crucial talks with their Chinese counterparts in Switzerland. The meeting, scheduled for Saturday, will focus on efforts to de-escalate ongoing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Any outcome, whether conciliatory or confrontational, could reshape sentiment heading into next week and determine whether the U.S. Dollar continues to advance or faces a corrective pullback.

Meanwhile, across the Swiss border, the Franc has struggled to keep pace. The Swiss National Bank has adopted an increasingly dovish tone, which has weighed on the local currency. Speaking on Tuesday, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel signaled a willingness to revisit negative interest rates should inflation fall below acceptable levels. “No one likes negative rates, but if we have to, we are prepared to do it again,” Schlegel remarked candidly. The comment underscores the SNB’s longstanding commitment to price stability, even at the cost of returning to ultra-loose monetary policy.

The Franc’s underperformance reflects the growing divergence between the SNB and the Federal Reserve. While the Fed remains on guard against inflation, the SNB appears more concerned with staving off deflationary risks. This divergence in policy outlooks has placed downward pressure on CHF and provided tailwinds for USD/CHF, which has now entered a bullish technical phase.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the setup in USD/CHF suggests that bulls are firmly in control. Following a liquidity grab near the recent weekly low at 0.81924, the pair staged a sharp rebound, confirming an internal structure shift and triggering a trend reversal. Price action traders noted the emergence of a classic AMD (Accumulation-Manipulation-Distribution) pattern, typically a strong indication that institutional demand has re-entered the market. The pair has since rallied from a key demand zone and is now poised to challenge the next resistance level around 0.83317, which marks the previous weekly high.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8260

STOP LOSS: 0.8200

TAKE PROFIT: 0.83317

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Alan

Forex

Summary:

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and Chair Powell's hawkish signals cooled market expectations for near-term rate cuts, which may bolster the U.S. dollar's strength.

BUY USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

100.000

Entry Price

103.200

98.500

98.810 -0.140 -0.14%

22.0

Pips

Loss

98.500

99.780

Exit Price

100.000

Entry Price

103.200

Fundamentals

As anticipated, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% for the third consecutive time. The decision underscored a "wait-and-see" stance, highlighting dual risks of "rising unemployment" and "sticky inflation," with added emphasis on "heightened uncertainty in the economic outlook."

During the press conference, Powell noted that while Q1 GDP was impacted by a surge in imports due to corporate inventory stockpiling, the underlying Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP)—stripping out volatility—remained robust at 3%. The labor market was also "balanced or near full employment." However, the Trump administration's recent 25% auto tariffs have emerged as a critical variable. If sustained, these tariffs could trigger a chain reaction of "persistent imported inflation" and "suppressed corporate investment," potentially delaying the Fed's 2% inflation target until 2026.

Powell explicitly ruled out "preemptive rate cuts," stressing that current policy is "moderately restrictive" and requires further clarity on tariff impacts and economic data. This reflects the Fed's vigilance against stagflation risks: if tariffs push core PCE inflation above 3%, the Fed may extend its high-rate cycle; conversely, worsening data (e.g., unemployment surpassing 4.5%) could accelerate rate cuts. Notably, Powell reaffirmed the Fed's independence, dismissing Trump's rate-cut demands as "no effect at all" and declining to meet with the President—a move to reinforce market confidence in apolitical monetary policy.

In summary, the Fed's rate hold and Powell's hawkish tone have further dampened rate-cut expectations, creating tailwinds for the U.S. dollar.

Technical Analysis

Based on the daily chart, the USDX rebounded strongly after overselling near 98.00, stabilizing above the 99.00 daily support. A breakout above the four-hour resistance at 99.50, coupled with a bullish close, confirms short-term upward momentum.

Key resistance levels are 100.00 (psychological barrier) and 101.40. A sustained breach could unlock further gains.Support lies at 99.00-99.50 (daily consolidation zone and four-hour MA20). A pullback to this area may offer a secondary long entry.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 99.80

Target price: 103.20

Stop loss: 98.50

Valid Until: May 22, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 99.50/98.94

Resistance: 101.40/102.80

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

A minor bullish divergence is also beginning to emerge on the RSI when compared to recent local lows, suggesting that bearish pressure may be waning and a new bullish impulse could be on the horizon.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.38405

Entry Price

1.41750

1.36400

1.38151 +0.00004 +0.00%

89.3

Pips

Profit

1.36400

1.39298

Exit Price

1.38405

Entry Price

1.41750

The Federal Reserve opted on Wednesday to leave interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting, resisting renewed pressure from President Donald Trump to ease monetary policy further. At the same time, the central bank highlighted growing economic uncertainty, which continues to cloud the outlook.

In his afternoon press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a cautious tone, emphasizing that the central bank would take a measured approach in the coming months. “We have no need to rush,” Powell stated, noting that policymakers would assess the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs on employment and inflation, as well as whether developments in trade negotiations with key U.S. partners reshape the broader economic picture.

“I don’t think we can predict how this will unfold,” Powell told reporters. Despite withholding any immediate policy changes, he voiced concern over the risks posed by trade tensions. “My sense is that uncertainty around the economic path is extremely elevated,” he added, underscoring the Fed’s wait-and-see approach.

The FOMC voted unanimously to hold the benchmark federal funds rate steady within a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%. This level was established at the end of 2024 following a full percentage point cut during the previous autumn. In its post-meeting statement, the Fed acknowledged that uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook “has increased further,” though officials also emphasized that the economy has continued to grow at a “solid pace,” despite some distortions in the data caused by volatile net exports in early 2025.

U.S. President Donald Trump made headlines just hours before the Fed’s decision. Speaking at a joint press conference with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump took a firm stance on trade, declaring that there was no need to revisit the USMCA agreement, a signature achievement of his first term.

However, Trump’s remarks extended beyond North American trade. He addressed ongoing tensions with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have intensified attacks on commercial shipping routes, raising broader geopolitical concerns that could indirectly affect market sentiment.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations from its April 16 meeting revealed that policymakers debated whether to maintain the policy rate or cut it by 25 basis points. Ultimately, they chose to keep the rate at 2.75%, opting for prudence as they monitor the economic fallout from tariffs and other external developments. This cautious stance underscores the balancing act central banks now face: addressing downside risks while avoiding premature moves that could destabilize markets. Buyers Could Step In After Fed Holds the Line_1

Buyers Could Step In After Fed Holds the Line_1

Technical Analysis

USDCAD has found firm support around the 1.3782 level, which has repeatedly failed to break to the downside. The pair has been in a corrective downtrend since peaking at 1.4792 on February 3. However, this retracement has yet to produce a lower low compared to the one seen on September 24 of last year, suggesting that the broader bullish trend remains technically intact.

The former resistance now turned into support is offering early signs of a potential bullish reversal. With the Federal Reserve holding rates steady, there may be room for USDCAD to stage a fresh upward move toward the 1.4178 area, where the next significant resistance level lies.

The RSI has dipped to 29, entering oversold territory just as price approached the aforementioned support zone. Additionally, the 100- and 200-period moving averages, currently at 1.4232 and 1.4000 respectively, could serve as magnets for price action should upward momentum build. A minor bullish divergence is also beginning to emerge on the RSI when compared to recent local lows, suggesting that bearish pressure may be waning and a new bullish impulse could be on the horizon.

However, if the price breaks decisively below support and establishes a new lower low, it would invalidate the current bullish setup and potentially signal a medium- to long-term trend reversal.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3838

Target price: 1.4175

Stop loss: 1.3640

Validity: May 16, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

A positive catalyst for crude oil demand hinges on developments regarding tariffs. Bulls in the oil market still face a significant challenge in reversing the prevailing trend.

BUY WTI

EXP

EXPIRED

57.200

Entry Price

64.750

54.700

59.973 +0.164 +0.27%

Pips

EXPIRED

54.700

60.576

Exit Price

57.200

Entry Price

64.750

Fundamentals

WTI crude oil prices have been on a sustained rally over the past few trading sessions, currently trading at US$58.90, having rebounded from lows near US$56.00 per barrel in late April. The price action appears to be forming a potential double-bottom pattern and is currently testing a key resistance level near US$60.00.

The rise in WTI prices has been fueled by developments in the tariff trade negotiations. While these negotiations are likely to improve sentiment in the oil market, significant progress on tariff reductions is needed to bolster the demand outlook.

Meanwhile, the escalation of conflict between nuclear-armed states India and Pakistan, with Pakistan claiming to have shot down five Indian fighter jets, has also provided support for oil prices.

Furthermore, the unexpected production increase plan by OPEC+ at the beginning of this month triggered a short-term shock in the oil market. The unexpected aspect of this meeting was not only the exceeding of production increase expectations, but also the shift in OPEC+'s stance on supporting oil prices since 2022 and concerns about subsequent diplomatic negotiations.

We believe that this unexpected production increase is mainly related to the desire of Saudi Arabia and other leading countries to maintain the organization's discipline and the upcoming U.S.-Saudi diplomatic activities. Currently, the global crude oil supply and demand structure is gradually reversing and showing a "loose balance" state. If OPEC further increases production, it will gradually show a "supply exceeding demand" phenomenon, and the oil market may still face pressure in the future.

Overall, under the disturbance of supply and risk events, international oil prices may still be weak and volatile. If the expectation of weakening macroeconomic readings under tariff disturbances is realized, it will put further downward pressure on oil prices.

Both Fundamental and Momentum Factors Necessitate Significant Effort_1

Technical Analysis

The recent rally in WTI crude emerged following a significant decline from the April highs near US$64.00, with bulls now attempting to recoup some losses. However, the 200-day SMA remains above the 50-day SMA, suggesting that the long-term bearish bias may still be in play. The considerable gap between these indicators implies that substantial effort is required from the bulls to fully reverse the trend.

The stochastic oscillator is currently hovering near overbought territory, potentially signaling resistance to the current recovery or the need for a brief consolidation before further gains. Despite this, the stochastic has not yet presented a clear bearish divergence or a definitive downward turn, indicating that buying momentum persists for now.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index has entered bullish territory above 60, with room to advance before reaching extreme overbought conditions. This suggests further upside potential if buyers maintain control.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 57.20

Target Price: 64.75

Stop Loss: 54.70

Valid Until: May 22, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 58.59, 57.46, 56.17

Resistance: 59.52, 60.13, 61.84

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin's price is consolidating near the US$97,000 level. The Relative Strength Index indicates that Bitcoin's momentum is in the overbought territory. On-chain signals indicate a bullish outlook.

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

EXPIRED

95500.0

Entry Price

101800.0

91000.0

91560.7 +2005.9 +2.24%

Pips

EXPIRED

91000.0

111348.1

Exit Price

95500.0

Entry Price

101800.0

Fundamentals

Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased by 1.7%, reaching US$2.98 trillion, approaching the upper bound of a consolidation range that has persisted for nearly two weeks.

Bitcoin is currently trading near US$97,000, with a notable surge in overall network activity recently. The latest data indicates that key price levels for Bitcoin are signaling a significant spike in network activity, suggesting substantial potential for the next price movement.

Bitcoin's key price levels highlight the activity within its ecosystem. Specifically, the short-term holder cost basis for Bitcoin is hovering near US$93,460. Maintaining above this level would position Bitcoin to initially break the US$100,000 threshold. Conversely, a breach below this level could trigger a price correction towards US$72,420. This metric is crucial as it reflects the average acquisition price of Bitcoin's short-term holders.

Based on key metrics, the Bitcoin network is exhibiting robust growth. Furthermore, network activity has reached a peak over the past six months. Therefore, the number of active Bitcoin addresses has reached 925,914 in the last 24 hours.

Overall, if Bitcoin's price sustains above its short-term holder cost basis, it could catalyze further upside, with a potential target in the US$100,000 range. Conversely, failure to do so could trigger a price correction towards US$72,420.

On-chain Signals Indicate a Bullish Outlook_1

Technical Analysis

The current Bitcoin price action, with its key resistance and support levels, suggests a potentially bullish outlook. The asset is currently consolidating within a narrow range. Specifically, the US$96,160 level is providing significant support, while bulls are encountering substantial resistance at US$98,290.

A break of US$98,290 could pave the way for a significant price move. This could see Bitcoin retesting the US$100,000 level, followed by a potential pullback. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that bullish momentum is in the overbought territory, which may signal a period of consolidation before further upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 95500

Target Price: 101800

Stop Loss: 91000

Valid Until: May 22, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 96160, 95333, 93429

Resistance: 98290, 99617, 102568

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

If the price holds above this key support, a new upward move could be initiated, targeting the 1.8133 zone as the next significant resistance.

BUY EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.75686

Entry Price

1.81330

1.71800

1.75592 +0.00325 +0.19%

141.4

Pips

Loss

1.71800

1.74272

Exit Price

1.75686

Entry Price

1.81330

Traders are increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) is on track to deliver its eighth rate cut in the past twelve months, and its seventh consecutive reduction. This growing conviction stems from the belief that eurozone inflation is steadily approaching the ECB’s 2% target by year-end. Concerns that tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump may further strain an already fragile eurozone economy have only strengthened expectations of continued monetary easing in the months ahead.

Several ECB officials have recently voiced support for additional stimulus, emphasizing that inflation remains vulnerable to the downside. Their statements reflect a broad consensus within the governing council to maintain an accommodative stance as the region continues to face both internal weaknesses and external economic headwinds. In this context, market speculation has intensified, with many expecting the ECB to act sooner rather than later to prevent deflationary pressures from becoming entrenched.

Meanwhile, hopes for a near-term trade deal between the United States and the European Union have faded. During Tuesday’s European trading hours, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic noted that the bloc is focusing on strengthening ties with other trading partners, who together account for 87% of the EU’s exports, according to The Straits Times. When asked about the status of U.S.-EU trade talks, Sefcovic reiterated the EU’s interest in achieving a fair and balanced agreement but highlighted Washington’s apparent reluctance to meaningfully engage in negotiations.

On the other side of the globe, Australia’s economic outlook remains heavily linked to demand from China. A de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions could enhance China’s growth prospects, indirectly supporting the Australian dollar (AUD). Conversely, if talks break down or rhetoric between the two powers intensifies, risk sentiment could deteriorate, limiting the upside potential for the AUD.

Domestically, political uncertainty in Australia has eased following Saturday’s federal election, which delivered a decisive win for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party. While the outcome had minimal direct impact on the foreign exchange market, it reinforced expectations for policy continuity and a stable investment environment.

On the economic front, inflation in Australia remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target band but is gradually moderating. The labor market continues to show resilience, though recent data suggests a slight slowdown in job creation. The RBA is expected to keep interest rates steady in the near term while closely monitoring inflation trends and wage growth. Overall, domestic conditions appear neutral for the AUD, making external factors—such as Federal Reserve policy moves and the trajectory of the Chinese economy—key drivers of AUD performance in the coming weeks. Divergence at Support Could Spark New EURAUD Rally_1

Divergence at Support Could Spark New EURAUD Rally_1

Technical Analysis

EURAUD has been in a corrective phase since reaching the 1.8564 high on April 8, pulling back to a recent low of 1.7390. This retracement has created a bullish divergence on the RSI indicator, as the RSI registered a lower low while the price did not, suggesting weakening bearish momentum and the potential for buyers to regain control. The RSI has now dropped to 32, nearing oversold territory, which could draw the attention of bullish traders.

The 100- and 200-period moving averages currently sit at 1.7663 and 1.7225, levels that are closely aligned with the area highlighted by the RSI divergence. Price action was recently rejected from support at 1.7426—previously a resistance zone—now acting as a potential springboard for further gains. This shift from resistance to support is a bullish signal and may suggest that the broader uptrend is still intact.

If the price holds above this key support, a new upward move could be initiated, targeting the 1.8133 zone as the next significant resistance. However, if the pair breaks below this level, the bullish setup would be invalidated, potentially leading to fresh lows and renewed downside pressure.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.7575

Target price: 1.8133

Stop loss: 1.7180

Validity: May 16, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The U.S. Dollar fell against the Swiss Franc on Wednesday, breaking below recent range support as geopolitical tensions and dovish expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy stance weighed on the greenback

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.82150

Entry Price

0.80390

0.82800

0.80327 -0.00128 -0.16%

65.0

Pips

Loss

0.80390

0.82802

Exit Price

0.82150

Entry Price

0.82800

The U.S. Dollar came under renewed pressure on Wednesday, pushing USD/CHF decisively lower and marking a notable technical breakdown as investors responded to a confluence of macroeconomic caution, global political risks, and an increasingly dovish bias in dollar sentiment. The currency pair has breached the lower bound of its eleven-day trading range, dropping below the 0.8212 level during European trade, reflecting growing demand for the Swiss Franc amid risk-averse flows.

The broader U.S. Dollar Index, or DXY, continued its downward drift, trading near 99.35 as markets moved into the second consecutive day of losses. Traders are exercising caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement later today, the culmination of a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While no change to the benchmark federal funds rate is expected, the tone of Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks will be dissected in search of clues regarding the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts later this year.

The Fed will not be releasing updated forecasts or a Summary of Economic Projections until its next meeting on June 17–18, making Powell’s language during the post-meeting press conference particularly impactful. In recent weeks, incoming U.S. data has presented a mixed picture. On the one hand, April’s ISM Services PMI printed at 51.6, signaling ongoing but subdued expansion in the service sector. On the other, Nonfarm Payrolls for the same month came in stronger than expected at 177,000, suggesting the labor market remains relatively firm. Yet the GDP growth outlook for the second quarter remains uncertain, with various forecasting models pointing to a range between 1.1 percent and 2.3 percent annualized growth.

This uneven economic backdrop has led to tempered expectations regarding the Fed’s next move. Rate futures suggest the market is still pricing in a cumulative 40 to 50 basis points of cuts by December, but the confidence behind that assumption has weakened amid conflicting signals and the Fed’s own ambiguity. If Powell maintains a cautious stance tonight and refrains from offering any clear dovish pivot, the Dollar may find some footing. However, a more conciliatory message—especially one that acknowledges global fragility—could accelerate the Dollar’s descent.

Simultaneously, developments in Asia have stirred further volatility in the foreign exchange space. Monday’s dramatic move in the Taiwan Dollar, which surged over 1.5 percent intraday before retracing some gains, has prompted renewed focus on capital flows and potential contagion across the region. Although Taiwan’s central bank intervened to calm the market, the abrupt appreciation has shaken confidence in the stability of Asian currency management frameworks. This, in turn, has fed into a broader narrative of uncertainty that has propelled safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc higher.

In Switzerland, the policy outlook remains complicated by the country’s latest inflation data. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in flat on an annualized basis, with core inflation slowing sharply to 0.6 percent from the previous month’s 0.9 percent. This marked deceleration in core prices suggests that domestic demand pressures remain muted and has fueled speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may lean toward another rate cut at its June 19 policy meeting.

The Swiss Franc’s strength, although welcome from a safe-haven perspective, risks importing deflation if it continues unchecked. The SNB, well aware of these risks, has left the door open to foreign exchange intervention as a policy tool and may resume outright currency purchases if the Franc appreciates significantly further. Market pricing currently implies about 40 basis points of easing from the SNB over the coming quarter, and analysts are beginning to speculate whether a return to negative policy rates is once again on the table.

Compounding these pressures are mounting geopolitical tensions across Europe and the Middle East. In Germany, political uncertainty has spiked following the unexpected election of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor in a second-round parliamentary vote, after falling short during the first round. Meanwhile, the protracted conflicts in both Ukraine and Gaza continue to cast a long shadow over global risk sentiment. As a result, capital continues to rotate into traditional safe havens—including the Swiss Franc, gold, and U.S. Treasuries.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF has confirmed a bearish breakout. For the past eleven sessions, the pair had been contained within a relatively well-defined range, bounded by support at 0.8195 to 0.8212 and resistance between 0.8318 and 0.8333. Throughout this period, repeated attempts to climb above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages—both converging near 0.8254—have failed, underscoring the persistent selling pressure at higher levels.

Now that price has slipped below the lower edge of the established range, attention turns to the next zone of support between 0.8097 and 0.8128. This area, last tested in early March, could serve as a temporary cushion if downside momentum continues. Should those levels give way, traders will inevitably eye the 2025 low at 0.8039 as a potential next destination.

Momentum indicators are confirming the bearish tilt, and with the pair unable to sustain upward thrusts beyond intraday resistance levels, the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside. The fundamental landscape, dominated by a weakening Dollar, global risk aversion, and Swiss inflation dynamics, reinforces this technical bias.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8215

STOP LOSS: 0.8280

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8039

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites