USD/CHF – The Rise of the Swiss Franc

Forex

Technical Analysis

Summary:

USD/CHF is currently trading around 0.8065, maintaining a long-term downtrend with the Swiss Franc remaining the strongest G10 currency. The SNB is expected to keep interest rates at 0% at least until 2027, further bolstered by the new U.S.-Switzerland trade agreement that sharply reduces tariffs. Meanwhile, the USD is under pressure due to weak economic data and expectations of a dovish Fed signal at the FOMC meeting on December 17. Forecast: the pair is projected to decline to 0.80 by the end of 2025 and 0.78–0.79 in 2026. Technical analysis shows clear sell signals at the downtrend line. Main trend: the Swiss Franc continues to strengthen against the USD.

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.80680

Entry Price

0.80510

0.80860

0.79981 +0.00011 +0.01%

17.0

Pips

Profit

0.80510

Exit Price

0.80680

Entry Price

0.80860

Fundamental Analysis

USD/CHF is currently trading around 0.8065, up slightly by 0.2% on the day but still maintaining a long-term downtrend and sitting near its highest level since 2021.

The Swiss Franc continues to be the strongest G10 currency thanks to: • The SNB is expected to keep interest rates at 0% at least until 2027, showing no rush to ease despite November inflation at only 0% and Q3 GDP contracting 0.5%. • A new trade agreement with the United States that sharply reduces tariffs (from 39% to 15%), boosting Swiss exports and supporting growth in 2026. • The traditional safe-haven status of the CHF, further reinforced amid ongoing global uncertainty.

In contrast, the USD is under pressure due to weaker-than-expected U.S. employment and growth data, plus market expectations of a dovish signal from the Fed at this week’s FOMC meeting (December 17).

Fundamental Outlook: USD/CHF is forecast to fall to 0.80 by the end of Q4 2025 and to 0.78–0.79 in 2026 (average forecasts from NAB, ING, UBS). Main trend: Swiss Franc strengthening against the USD.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Drawing a line connecting the highs gives a clear downtrend line.Pattern: At the third touch of this trendline, price reacted strongly, leaving a long upper wick and then dropping sharply. This creates ideal conditions for sellers to enter the market. Expectation: Sellers along the downtrend will look to take profit when price reaches the rising trendline/support below.

TRADING DIRECTION: SELL

Entry: 0.80680

Stop Loss: 0.80860

Take Profit: 0.80510 / 0.80420

Support levels: 0.80300 / 0.80000

Resistance levels: 0.80860 / 0.81000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

If this zone is rejected once more, we could anticipate a move to the downside, targeting the 0.7984 level, which serves as a critical local support zone.

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.80800

Entry Price

0.79840

0.81150

0.79981 +0.00011 +0.01%

51.6

Pips

Profit

0.79840

0.80284

Exit Price

0.80800

Entry Price

0.81150

In Switzerland, inflation has decelerated toward the lower bound of the SNB's 0–2% target range. Despite this unexpected slowdown, policymakers have indicated that returning to negative interest rates remains a high barrier. The central bank also anticipates that inflation will increase slightly in the coming quarters, supporting the case for maintaining its current policy stance.

Recent reports suggest that economists likewise do not anticipate a move back into negative territory in 2026. According to the latest BHH Market View report, the swaps market assigns less than a 50% probability to a 25 basis point (bps) cut to $-0.25\%$ within the next twelve months.

White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett stated in a recent interview that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should continue cutting the interest rate, suggesting that Fed Chair Jerome Powell likely agrees that rate reductions are a prudent move. This commentary adds significant weight to the growing narrative of monetary easing.

Recent U.S. economic data presented a mixed, though generally softer, picture of the labor market. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the week ending November 29th fell below economists' estimates. Initial jobless claims came in at 191,000, comfortably lower than the 220,000 forecast. Meanwhile, continuing claims for the week ending November 22nd were recorded at 1.939 million, a slight drop from the preceding week’s 1.943 million. Separately, the Challenger Job Report disclosed that employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November, a notable 53% decrease from the high figure announced in October, although this still marked a 24% increase year-over-year.

Despite the recent improvement in initial claims, market participants still price in more than an 85% probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December 9-10 meeting, a sentiment largely sustained by Wednesday’s disappointing ADP employment data. U.S.

Treasury yields are firming, with the 10-year benchmark bond rate rising nearly three basis points to 4.168%. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets currently assign approximately an 87% probability to a 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting.

In geopolitical news, trilateral negotiations between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine aimed at achieving peace continue without clear progress. Russian President Vladimir Putin commented that his meeting with U.S. delegate Steve Witkoff was "very useful." In recent hours, Russian attacks have resulted in five fatalities in the Donetsk and Kherson regions. Several Ukrainian representatives are scheduled to meet with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Washington this Thursday. Failure to Print Higher Highs Confirms Bearish Trendline Pressure_1

Failure to Print Higher Highs Confirms Bearish Trendline Pressure_1

Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair appears to be situated firmly within a bearish trendline channel, as evidenced by the consistent failure to create new higher highs. Instead, the formation of successively lower highs increases the probability that a significant downward movement will be triggered from the current descending trendline. This trendline originated on November 5th when the price reached the 0.8124 level, and the most recent high was printed in the past session at 0.8087.

If this zone is rejected once more, we could anticipate a move to the downside, targeting the 0.7984 level, which serves as a critical local support zone. The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are closely aligned on the 4-hour chart at 0.8031 and 0.8021, respectively. The RSI is currently at 64 and is approaching overbought territory without showing any immediate divergence, suggesting that the underlying bearish pressure may be maintained if the price fails to break the trendline. However, if a decisive upward breakout occurs and the price sustains itself above the descending trendline, it would signal a change in direction, opening the path for more pronounced gains.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.8080

Target price: 0.7984

Stop loss: 0.8115

Validity: Dec 19, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

The RSI is currently at the 46 level, just below neutral territory, indicating that a slight additional downward move is possible before the primary uptrend is likely to resume.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

PENDING

4152.00

Entry Price

4350.00

4100.00

4228.20 -0.02 0.00%

Pips

PENDING

4100.00

Exit Price

4152.00

Entry Price

4350.00

Recent U.S. economic data provided a mixed, though generally softer, picture of the labor market. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the week ending November 29th fell below economists' estimates. Initial jobless claims came in at 191,000, comfortably lower than the 220,000 forecast, and a decrease from the prior week's upwardly revised 218,000 figure. Meanwhile, continuing claims for the week ending November 22nd were recorded at 1.939 million, a slight drop from the preceding week's 1.943 million. Separately, the Challenger Job Report disclosed that employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November. While this was a 24% increase year-over-year, it marked a notable 53% decrease from the high figure announced in October.

Despite the recent improvement in initial jobless claims, market participants still price in more than an 85% probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December 9-10 meeting, a sentiment largely sustained by Wednesday’s disappointing ADP employment data. U.S. Treasury yields are firming, with the 10-year benchmark bond rate rising nearly three basis points to 4.168%. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets currently assign approximately an 87% probability to a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting.

Global Gold ETFs recorded their sixth consecutive month of inflows in November, according to a World Gold Council (WGC) report published on December 5th. This inflow added $5.2 billion, pushing assets under management to a record high of $530 billion. This sustained institutional interest provides a strong fundamental backdrop for the precious metal.

In geopolitical news, trilateral negotiations between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine aimed at achieving peace continue without clear progress, although Russian President Vladimir Putin commented that his meeting with U.S. delegate Steve Witkoff was "very useful." In recent hours, Russian attacks have resulted in five fatalities in the Donetsk and Kherson regions. Several Ukrainian representatives are scheduled to meet with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Washington this Thursday. Dovish Fed Bets and Gold ETF Inflows Point to Sustained Upside_1

Dovish Fed Bets and Gold ETF Inflows Point to Sustained Upside_1

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently in a strong bullish impulse, undergoing a technical correction before potentially resuming its advance. The next major objective for bulls is to breach the $4,265 level, which was reached on December 1st, and target the all-time high of $4,380 achieved on October 20th. The most proximate support level is situated at $4,150, a zone where the price has historically shown swift directional changes. A potential correction down to this level would open the door to favorable buying opportunities from this area.

This technical zone is fortified by the close convergence of key moving averages (MAs) on the 4-hour chart: the 100-period MA sits at $4,144 and the 200-period MA is at $4,096. Furthermore, the ascending trendline is also aligned near this area. The convergence of these technical factors suggests that any approach by the price to this zone could quickly trigger massive buying pressure, particularly since the fundamental factors (dovish Fed, ETF inflows) favor a bullish sentiment for gold. The RSI is currently at the 46 level, just below neutral territory, indicating that a slight additional downward move is possible before the primary uptrend is likely to resume.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 4152

Target price: 4350

Stop loss: 4100

Validity: Dec 19, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The euro appears strained by mixed economic signals from the Eurozone modest inflation, cautious comments from central-bank officials, and uneven growth across the bloc....

SELL EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.75600

Entry Price

1.74800

1.76300

1.75315 +0.00215 +0.12%

17.3

Pips

Profit

1.74800

1.75427

Exit Price

1.75600

Entry Price

1.76300

Overview

EUR/AUD currently sits near 1.757 AUD per euro, within a daily range roughly 1.7529 to 1.7582. The Eurozone’s recent macro landscape has been lukewarm: though inflation hovers near target levels, economic growth especially in heavyweight economies like Germany lags and investor morale remains fragile. Meanwhile AUD benefits from resilience in global commodity demand and relative strength versus the euro, giving markets reason to favour AUD over EUR. The structural interest rate/divergence environment and growth prospects appear more supportive of AUD than EUR right now.

This macro context euro zone uncertainty vs. AUD stability underpins a bias toward AUD strength, which naturally pressures EUR/AUD downward. Given recent sideways to slightly up price action, the pair may be setting up for a bearish turn rather than a bullish breakout.

Market sentiment

Sentiment toward the euro seems cautious, driven by a mixture of uneven growth across the Eurozone and cautious central-bank commentary suggesting a steady not stimulative path ahead.Traders appear less willing to bet on euro strength under these conditions. On the other hand, AUD, with its commodity-linked economic profile and global demand tailwinds, remains comparatively attractive. Given this backdrop, flows may increasingly favour AUD over EUR, especially in risk-neutral or risk-positive environments. As a result, the prevailing psychology around EUR/AUD tilts toward bearish – recent modest rallies may be seen as corrective rather than trend-shifting.

Technical analysis

Bearish bias resurfaces in light of latest EUR weakness and AUD resilience_1

On a short-term (M15) chart, EUR/AUD’s price appears to be testing upper-band resistance of the Bollinger channel. The mid-band sits near ~1.753–1.754, and recent price action seems to stall just above it, suggesting the upward momentum lacks strength. A failure to convincingly close and hold above the upper band would indicate a likely retracement back toward the mid-band or possibly lower. Ichimoku (9,26,52) likely shows price close to or slightly above the Tenkan-sen, with Kijun-sen near or just below a setup that lacks strong bullish conviction. The forward Kumo (cloud) appears thin or neutral, implying limited structural support overhead and leaving the pair vulnerable to downward moves. Stochastic (5,3,3) on M15 may already be forming a bearish crossover after recently reaching overbought territory, which tends to precede short-term pullbacks when price is near resistance. Combined, these indicators suggest that the recent upward move is losing steam a condition typically favourable for a mean-reversion drop rather than continued rally.

Given the broader macro bias (EUR soft, AUD stable/strong) and this short-term technical setup, EUR/AUD looks set for a re-test of lower support zones. A breakdown of support could accelerate the drop.

Trade idea

Entry: 1.7560

Take Profit: 1.7480

Stop Loss: 1.7630

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

EUR/USD is trading around ≈ 1.1650–1.1670, after a modest rebound. With increasing market speculation on a near-term rebound in the US dollar (on potential stronger US economic data or hawkish surprises), combined with signs that the European Central Bank (ECB) may remain cautious on further easing or even signal structural headwinds for the eurozone, EUR/USD retains downside risks...

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.16365

Entry Price

1.16000

1.17050

1.16977 +0.00029 +0.02%

14.0

Pips

Loss

1.16000

1.16505

Exit Price

1.16365

Entry Price

1.17050

Overview

EUR/USD’s recent bounce seems fragile. Although the euro zone inflation was reported at about 2.2% recently above the ECB’s target and some had hoped for EUR support, the commentary from ECB officials suggests that the bank is cautious about rate cuts or aggressive stimulus. Meanwhile, on the US side, markets are increasingly watching for fresh data that could revive the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s hawkish lean, which would strengthen the US dollar. Given these cross-currents, EUR/USD appears range-bound, but with a bias favoring USD strength which tends to pressure EUR/USD lower, especially if global risk sentiment shifts or US data surprises on the upside.

Market sentiment

Sentiment toward EUR/USD seems tilted toward caution rather than confidence. With the eurozone economy facing uncertainty due to sticky inflation, labour-market concerns and mixed growth outlook the euro’s appeal is diminished. The euro has recovered modestly from earlier weakness, but many traders view the recent uptick as corrective rather than structural. On the contrary, the dollar is seen as having potential to rebound, especially if the next round of US economic data comes stronger than expected or if risk-off flows re-emerge. That expectation underpins a bearish bias for EUR/USD, particularly in shorter-term timeframes where bounce attempts tend to be faded by sellers.

Technical analysis

On an M15 chart, EUR/USD’s recent recovery toward 1.1670 likely pushes price near or slightly above the mid-band of a 20-period Bollinger channel, but fails to convincingly break higher, which suggests the rebound may lack conviction. If price begins showing hesitation small candlesticks, wicks on top while failing to clear the upper band, this would indicate weakening buying pressure and increased chance of reversal toward the lower band or mid-band. Under such conditions, a bearish impulse could take price back toward support zones roughly around 1.1610–1.1580 (lower Bollinger band / prior short-term lows).

If overlaying an Ichimoku (9,26,52) on M15, one might expect that price remains close to or below the Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen after the rebound, indicating lack of sustained bullish structure. The forward Kumo likely remains flat or thin suggesting limited support for further upward moves and vulnerability to downward momentum. A bearish Stochastic (5,3,3) or similar momentum oscillator triggered by the failed upward push would further confirm readiness for a short-term decline, especially if overbought conditions reverse.

Given that the broader macro backdrop tilts toward USD strength and euro caution, a bearish technical configuration on M15 could be a plausible entry for a short-term sell.

Trade idea

Entry: 1.6365

Take Profit: 1.1600

Stop Loss: 1.1705

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

OPEC Output Flat, Upside Momentum Intensifies Above Key Support

BUY WTI

EXP

TRADING

57.993

Entry Price

62.000

56.000

58.710 +0.033 +0.06%

0.0

Pips

Flat

56.000

Exit Price

57.993

Entry Price

62.000

Fundamentals

European-session dip leaves WTI quoting just below the $60.00 figure, –0.1% on the day. An industry survey shows OPEC kept output flat last month, underscoring the group’s cautious strategy amid a soft global balance.

The survey pegs November OPEC production a hair above 29,000,000 b/d, essentially unchanged from October. Although the coalition had green-lit a fourth-quarter supply uptick, it sharply moderated the pace after front-loading hikes earlier this year.

Global crude is flashing oversupply. Consensus expects the 2025 surplus to widen as OPEC+ and rival output outpaces demand growth. Survey data show the UAE lifted November output by 60,000 b/d to 3,610,000 b/d, materially above its OPEC+ quota, but the uptick was offset by modest pullbacks in Iran, Gabon and Saudi Arabia.

WTI crude remains exposed to geopolitical headline risk, as escalating Ukraine–Russia tensions keep supply-disruption fears alive.

OPEC Output Flat, Upside Momentum Intensifies Above Key Support_1

Technical Analysis

WTI remains within its ascending channel after pulling back from a $60.51 high, consolidating mid-channel and building momentum for the next leg higher.

Fibonacci retracements of the latest swing point to key support: 38.2% at $59.65, 50% at $59.39 and 61.8% at $59.13—coincident with the channel support that must hold to preserve the bullish structure.

The 100% retracement at $58.27 aligns with the channel base; a hold here preserves the upside bias and opens a retest of recent highs or a breakout to new highs.

The SMA100 is above the SMA200 and both sit below price, acting as dynamic support and a magnet for dip-buyers.

Stochastic is idling near the neutral zone, leaving room for either further consolidation or a momentum restart if buyers emerge at the Fibonacci support cluster.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 58.00

Target Price: 62.00

Stop Loss: 56.00

Valid Until: December, 24, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 59.13/58.63/58.15

Resistance Levels: 60.25/61.26/62.49

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

As consumption growth slows and inflation eases slightly, these data reinforce expectations that the Fed will cut rates next week.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4181.60

Entry Price

4350.00

4145.00

4228.20 -0.02 0.00%

111.0

Pips

Profit

4145.00

4192.70

Exit Price

4181.60

Entry Price

4350.00

Fundamentals

Data released last Friday showed mixed results for US personal consumption expenditures, with core inflation easing and spending slipping slightly. The market broadly expects the Fed to cut rates again this week, pressuring the dollar toward a one-month low and providing support for non-yielding gold.

Breakdown data showed US personal income rose 0.4% MoM in September, in line with expectations; personal spending rose 0.3%, slightly below the consensus forecast of 0.4%. Both figures indicate consumer demand remains solid but is gradually slowing.

Inflation data were broadly stable. Headline PCE rose 0.3% MoM, with the YoY rate holding at 2.8%, slightly above August’s 2.7% and exactly in line with expectations.

Core PCE rose 0.2% MoM, while the YoY measure slowed from 2.9% to 2.8%, below expectations for no change. The decline in core PCE is a modest but welcome sign for policymakers looking for continued disinflation.

Market Watch: US consumer spending and income growth both slowed in September, closing out an otherwise strong third quarter. Real spending grew at an annualized 2.7% pace in Q3, slightly above Q2’s 2.5%. However, the weaker September performance—combined with recent declines in consumer sentiment and softening labor-market indicators—suggests that Q4 spending growth may slow to below 1%.

Although the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge remains above target, it has not re-accelerated over the past five months and has stayed relatively stable. Slower consumption growth and steady inflation should boost the Fed’s confidence, reinforcing the case for another 25-basis-point rate cut at Wednesday’s meeting.

Cooling Inflation and Slowing Consumption Strengthen Rate-Cut Bets, Keeping the Bullish Structure Intact_1

Technical Analysis

Gold’s sharp pullback after testing 4,260 last Friday was in line with expectations. However, the lack of follow-through selling since the start of Monday’s Asian session suggests the decline was a one-off event rather than a full reversal of the upward trend.

The key support level for gold is now at 4,175. A sustained break below this level could trigger technical selling and increase the likelihood of a decline toward the 4,164–4,150 zone, or even below 4,100. The latter corresponds to a short-term uptrend line from late October; a confirmed break would be viewed as a new trigger for bearish traders and could push gold further downward.

On the other hand, the 4,250–4,260 region may continue to act as strong immediate resistance. If gold breaks and holds above this area, the next significant resistance would appear near 4,277–4,290, followed by a potential move toward the 4,300 round-number level. Renewed buying beyond that point would be interpreted as a key bullish signal and could pave the way for a sustained continuation of the uptrend since the late-November lows.