USD/CAD Inches Higher on Powell Testimony, Housing Data Awaited

Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Canadian Dollar weakens against the U.S. Dollar, with USD/CAD trading near 1.3750.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.37400

Entry Price

1.38400

1.36400

1.38207 +0.00060 +0.04%

100.0

Pips

Loss

1.36400

1.36399

Exit Price

1.37400

Entry Price

1.38400

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is under modest pressure against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, with USD/CAD attempting to break higher after a period of tight consolidation. The pair hovered near 1.3750 during early North American trade as investors braced for a dual dose of market-moving catalysts: U.S. New Home Sales data for May and the final day of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony on Capitol Hill.

This cautious upward drift in USD/CAD reflects a broader market tone marked by policy uncertainty and macroeconomic crosswinds. The pair, which had spent several sessions trapped within a narrow range, now appears poised for a potential breakout depending on incoming U.S. data and the Fed’s forward guidance.

One of the day’s key economic releases, U.S. New Home Sales, is due at 14:00 GMT and could offer valuable insight into the state of the American housing market — a sector highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and consumer sentiment. Economists expect that 690,000 new single-family homes were sold in May, a slight pullback from the unexpectedly strong 743,000 pace seen in April.

The April surge raised eyebrows, particularly as it coincided with the preemptive acceleration of home purchases ahead of incoming tariff risks. As such, May’s report will be scrutinized not only for headline sales numbers but also for any signs of a potential hangover in activity following April’s spike. A weaker-than-expected print could suggest fading housing momentum and complicate the Fed’s inflation management strategy, while a strong number might reinforce the case for patience on rate cuts.

Even more closely watched will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during his second day of testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. The semiannual Monetary Policy Report hearing concludes Wednesday, with investors keenly focused on Powell’s tone and any deviations from his prior statements to the House Financial Services Committee.

Markets interpreted Tuesday’s appearance as largely balanced, with Powell acknowledging that inflation had moderated but not enough to warrant immediate rate cuts. He reiterated that the Fed would need “greater confidence” that inflation was sustainably moving toward the 2% target before loosening monetary policy. However, the Fed chief also noted that overly restrictive policy could eventually weigh on economic activity and the labor market, leaving the central bank walking a narrow policy tightrope.

For FX markets, Powell’s testimony holds significant implications. Any dovish tilt could reignite risk appetite and weaken the greenback, while a more cautious or hawkish stance could boost the U.S. Dollar and extend the upward bias in USD/CAD.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD is showing signs of a bullish correction after bouncing off key support at 1.3685 — a level that had previously acted as a short-term floor. The pair has since climbed higher, bolstered by positive momentum on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which emerged from oversold territory and now supports further gains.

The RSI signal — combined with the sustained bounce off horizontal support — reinforces the view that USD/CAD could continue to recover in the near term, especially if upcoming U.S. data surprises to the upside or if Powell leans hawkish in his remarks.

Still, the overall picture remains nuanced. USD/CAD has been trading in a relatively confined range, with resistance levels near 1.3780 and 1.3840 acting as key barriers. A decisive break above these thresholds would likely trigger a new wave of bullish momentum, while failure to sustain gains above 1.3750 could bring sellers back into the fold.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3740

STOP LOSS: 1.3640

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3840

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Stocks

Summary:

Following President Trump's declaration of a ceasefire, the conflict between Iran and Israel has ceased, which has driven the U.S. stock market upward on Tuesday. Investors are betting on an end to the war, and the market may continue its bullish trend.

BUY US30

Close Time

CLOSED

43055.97

Entry Price

44149.00

42500.00

48004.92 +5.02 +0.01%

10930.3

Pips

Profit

42500.00

44149.44

Exit Price

43055.97

Entry Price

44149.00

Fundamentals

U.S. stocks experienced a substantial rally on Tuesday, building upon the robust gains observed in the preceding trading session. As the market continued its upward trajectory, major indices reached their highest closing levels in four months.

At the close of trading, key indices retreated from their intraday peaks but maintained significant gains. The Nasdaq Composite surged by 281 points, representing a 1.4% increase, to close at 19,912. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 507 points, a 1.2% gain, closing at 43,089. The S&P 500 advanced by 67.01 points, or 1.1%, to settle at 6,092.

Wall Street's positive performance followed President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

Trump stated on Truth Social, "Assuming all goes as planned, I would like to congratulate both Israel and Iran for having the tenacity, courage, and intelligence to end this so-called '12-day war.'"

Despite mutual accusations of ceasefire violations, investors appear optimistic about the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Concurrently, investors largely shrugged off comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, who stated that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates, notwithstanding pressure from Trump to lower them.

MARKET WATCH: Judging by the volatility of the three major U.S. stock indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's continued rise at current levels is sustainable, as the index remains below its two major indices; however, investors lack greater confidence on the "from here" question. Optimistic expectations for corporate earnings in the second half of the year may be excessive, and coupled with multiples near cyclical highs, this will require earnings to exceed expectations.

U.S. Stock Market Achieves a Four-Month New High Following the Conclusion of the "12-day War"_1

Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading at 43120, consolidating within a recent sideways range. Technical indicators in the 1D timeframe are mixed, with no clear overbought or oversold signals, suggesting market resilience. Momentum indicators show price testing key SMAs, while volume remains moderate.

From a structural perspective, on the other hand, the index exhibits a head and shoulders bottom pattern, implying a potential continuation of the uptrend.

Overall, the short-term outlook is mixed, while the medium-term favors a bullish bias. A range-bound trading strategy is recommended, utilizing trendlines and SMAs for support and resistance levels to guide position management.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 43000

Target Price: 44149

Stop Loss: 42500

Valid Until: July 10, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 42961, 42790, 42708

Resistance: 43202, 43690, 44055

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Euro hovers near its strongest level against the US Dollar since late 2021, supported by falling oil prices and growing Fed rate cut bets.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.16000

Entry Price

1.18000

1.15000

1.16491 +0.00065 +0.06%

107.2

Pips

Profit

1.15000

1.17072

Exit Price

1.16000

Entry Price

1.18000

The Euro is showing remarkable resilience against the US Dollar, holding steady near a more than three-year high as markets digest a shifting global macroeconomic landscape. On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair traded with marginal losses but remained anchored near the 1.1640 level—territory not seen since November 2021. The pair had surged nearly 1.4% in the previous two sessions, underpinned by a combination of weak US economic data, dovish market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, and easing inflationary pressures in the Eurozone driven by lower energy costs.

While geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran persist, the current truce appears to be holding for now. This relative calm has fueled a moderate risk-on tone across financial markets, curbing demand for traditional safe havens like the US Dollar and instead propping up risk-sensitive currencies like the Euro.

A significant driver of Euro strength has been the retreat in global oil prices. After spiking on Middle East war risk, crude futures have retreated from last week’s highs and now trade well below recent peaks. Markets seem increasingly convinced that Iranian oil infrastructure—crucial for global supply—remains mostly intact after the recent strikes, and there has been no substantial disruption to shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz.

This decline in oil prices acts as a tailwind for the Eurozone economy, where imported energy costs are a major inflation driver. Softer oil prices help ease inflationary pressures, which in turn boosts household spending power and improves overall growth prospects in the region. The Euro, often highly sensitive to energy prices due to the bloc's dependence on imports, has responded positively.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, sentiment toward the US Dollar remains under pressure. Despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s attempt to project patience in monetary policy during Tuesday’s semiannual testimony to Congress, markets appear increasingly convinced that interest rate cuts are on the horizon—likely as early as September.

Powell reiterated the Fed’s need for “greater confidence” before easing policy, emphasizing that the central bank is not currently rushing toward rate cuts. However, markets have taken a more dovish view, especially following Tuesday’s soft US Consumer Confidence data. The Conference Board’s index fell more than expected in June, with notable declines in the labor market sentiment subcomponents. Growing consumer concern about job security is amplifying expectations that tighter monetary policy is weighing on the real economy.

Further compounding the Dollar’s challenges is the lack of significant upside surprises in recent US economic releases. With inflation slowly cooling and labor market data losing momentum, investors are questioning how long the Fed can maintain its restrictive stance without risking a harder-than-necessary landing.

Looking ahead, Wednesday’s calendar is relatively light, with only US new home sales data for May due. Powell is scheduled to testify again, but traders expect little deviation from his prior remarks. As such, further headlines out of the Middle East may serve as a bigger intraday catalyst for both safe-haven flows and broader risk sentiment.

However, unless the truce between Israel and Iran breaks decisively, the Euro seems poised to benefit from the current market mood and macro positioning. A benign energy price backdrop and diminishing Fed hawkishness form a powerful support base for the common currency, particularly as the ECB has already taken a step toward normalizing monetary policy with a rate cut in June.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD remains in firmly bullish territory across major timeframes. Price action continues to respect the internal structure of an ascending channel that has guided the pair higher since mid-May. On the daily chart, the pair trades comfortably above the psychologically and technically significant 1.1600 level—a key area that has transitioned from resistance to support.

The pair also remains aligned with both the red trendline and the broader bullish channel (marked in purple), with no significant signs of a trend reversal at this stage. The recent intraday pullbacks have helped alleviate overbought conditions on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), allowing bulls to potentially reload for another leg higher.

Despite the brief correction, the Euro’s ability to stay above 1.1600 reinforces the dominance of the bullish trend. As long as EUR/USD continues to trade within its ascending structure and macro fundamentals favor Euro strength, traders may look for opportunities to build long positions on dips.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1600

STOP LOSS: 1.1500

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1800

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

Recently, Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, causing the market’s risk-aversion sentiment to ebb and consequently pushing down gold prices. However, the conflict between the two countries may not have come to a complete end, and there is still potential for gold prices to rise.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3323.73

Entry Price

3250.00

3370.00

4211.67 +13.76 +0.33%

493.9

Pips

Profit

3250.00

3274.34

Exit Price

3323.73

Entry Price

3370.00

Fundamentals

The recent phased easing of the Middle East situation has directly triggered the decline in gold prices. Israel and Iran, with Trump’s mediation, reached a ceasefire agreement, and both sides have resumed the opening of their airspace. Iran’s foreign minister explicitly stated a “willingness to resolve differences through negotiations,” and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being blockaded has significantly diminished. The risk premium on gold, which had been inflated by geopolitical conflicts, was quickly reversed, with gold prices plummeting by 46.06 dollars in a single day yesterday. As a result, funds have accelerated their exit from gold, shifting towards risk assets such as the stock market.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s wait-and-see stance on monetary policy has further suppressed gold prices. Powell emphasized at the congressional hearing the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and hinted at a reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts before September. The market’s expectation for a rate cut in July has plummeted from 35% to 12%, and the US dollar index has stabilized above 98.00, diminishing the appeal of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.

It is important to note that, despite the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, there is still the possibility of renewed conflict between the two countries. Should the conflict flare up again, gold prices could once again find support and rise.

Technical Analysis

From the 4-hour chart perspective, the short-term upward trend line of gold has already been breached. The likelihood of a short-term trend reversal to the downside is gradually increasing. Moreover, the MA20 crossing below the MA60 and MA144 to form a “death cross” has further heightened the probability of a short-term decline in gold prices.

Currently, gold prices rebounded after falling to the support level near 3292.00 yesterday. Today, the rebound has continued, but in the short term, there is a resistance level at 3350.00 above. If gold prices weaken under this resistance level, they may once again test the support level at 3292.00. Should this support level be breached, the downside space for gold prices will be opened up, with the next target potentially falling to around 3245.00.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3340.00

Target Price: 3250.00

Stop Loss: 3370.00

Valid Until: July 09, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 3295.39/3245.33

Resistance: 3340.24/3357.71

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Summary:

According to the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council, further easing of monetary policy may be warranted if the euro's strength persists, while downplaying the risks associated with tariffs.

BUY EURNZD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.91200

Entry Price

1.93890

1.90010

2.01653 +0.00102 +0.05%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.90010

1.95463

Exit Price

1.91200

Entry Price

1.93890

Fundamentals

Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, indicated that further monetary easing might be warranted later this year if the recent appreciation of the euro continues to mitigate inflationary pressures stemming from rising oil prices.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Villeroy stated that "inflation expectations remain moderate," and that the currency's appreciation would help offset energy-driven price pressures. He added, "If this scenario materializes, further easing could be considered within the next six months."

Policymakers will proceed cautiously unless short-term oil price volatility translates into broader inflation risks. He further noted, "We may adjust monetary policy if we observe spillover effects into underlying inflation, leading to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations."

In the realm of trade, Villeroy dismissed apprehensions that escalating U.S.-EU tensions would trigger significant inflation within the Eurozone. He posited that the primary risk resides in economic growth rather than price levels, given that EU tariffs would exclusively target U.S. goods, unlike Washington's broader measures. The strengthening euro also serves as a buffer, mitigating the impact of any imported inflation.

Currently, the EURNZD is trading at 1.9233. The market dynamics are influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the ECB, which recently lowered interest rates, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which has either concluded or is nearing the end of its easing cycle, coupled with fluctuating risk sentiment. In the short term, the EURNZD lmay face downward pressure if Eurozone data continues to underperform and the New Zealand dollar remains robust due to commodity price support. Conversely, a resurgence in risk appetite in the U.S. and Europe, or unexpected inflationary pressures in Europe, could potentially drive a rebound in the euro.

Are Tariffs' Impacts Manageable? Will the ECB Cut Rates Again in the Second Half of the Year?_1

Technical Analysis

Technically, the EURNZD has retraced significantly from Monday's high of 1.9488, aligning with its recent volatile behavior. Despite signs of a slowdown in the current decline, the 4-hour chart still exhibits a downward death cross, suggesting the downtrend is not yet exhausted. Further declines may test the 50-day SMA near 1.9150 or the demand zone around 1.9076. As a critical juncture for supply and demand, a potential rebound could occur if market risk sentiment improves, with a break above 1.9350 potentially revisiting recent highs.

Considering both fundamental and technical aspects, the EURNZD remains within a range-bound pattern. A buy-on-dip strategy is favored for the medium term, but close attention should be paid to the breach of the 1.9077–1.9021 range. Furthermore, monitoring upcoming decisions from the ECB and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, along with key economic data releases, is crucial for adapting trading strategies.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.9120

Target Price: 1.9389

Stop Loss: 1.9001

Valid Until: July 9, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.9210, 1.9160, 1.9110

Resistance: 1.9313, 1.9331, 1.9353

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

These moving averages form a technical confluence zone that may act as a magnet for price action during a corrective move.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36239

Entry Price

1.35100

1.36800

1.33141 -0.00171 -0.13%

56.1

Pips

Loss

1.35100

1.36801

Exit Price

1.36239

Entry Price

1.36800

Consumer sentiment in the United States deteriorated notably in June, with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index falling to 93.0 from 98.4 in May. This marked a sharper-than-expected decline and underscored growing concerns about the economic outlook among U.S. households.

The Present Situation Index fell by 6.4 points to 129.1, while the Expectations Index dropped 4.6 points to 69.0. According to Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist for Global Indicators at the Conference Board, “Consumers were less optimistic about current business conditions compared to May. Their assessment of job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month, although it remains in positive territory—consistent with a labor market that is still relatively strong.”

Markets took a breather as geopolitical tensions eased slightly. U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel—described by him as the end of the "12-Day War"—which helped calm global risk sentiment and reduced safe-haven inflows into the U.S. dollar.

Beyond geopolitics, monetary policy remained in focus. In prepared remarks for his congressional testimony, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that rate cuts may not be imminent, noting that the Fed is carefully monitoring the economic impact of tariffs. He acknowledged that “this year’s tariffs are likely to raise prices and weigh on economic activity,” but added that the extent and persistence of their impact remains uncertain.

Powell’s comments contrasted with the more dovish stance recently taken by Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman—two officials who were among the more hawkish voices last year and had previously supported a rate cut as early as July.

Adding to the narrative of delayed policy easing, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, traditionally considered a hawk, stated that rate cuts could remain “on hold for quite some time.” Her comments echoed those of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who recently said there is currently no urgency to cut rates, and projected only a single 25-basis-point reduction this year.

Across the Atlantic, Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden indicated on Tuesday that rate cuts could be accelerated if stronger evidence emerges that inflation will undershoot the central bank’s target. Speaking to Reuters, Ramsden highlighted the material uncertainty surrounding how the UK economy is responding to recent shocks. “In the near term, my focus will likely remain on the domestic side of the economy,” he noted, while also acknowledging that the UK faces a challenging fiscal environment. He added that recent bond market movements have been orderly despite prevailing headwinds. Resistance at Local High Could Trigger GBPUSD Correction_1

Resistance at Local High Could Trigger GBPUSD Correction_1

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD recently reached a local high at 1.3648, only to reverse lower shortly afterward. This area has acted as a key resistance zone in the past—particularly near the 1.3610 level—and could once again serve as a pivot point for a downside correction. Previous interactions with this level have triggered pullbacks, suggesting that if the pattern holds, bearish momentum could resume, targeting the 1.3510 zone.

This target aligns with the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level, which coincides with a historically significant support area. The price has shown directional changes around this level in the past, making it a logical area to watch for potential buying interest.

Further reinforcing this scenario, the 100- and 200-period moving averages on the 1-hour chart are located at 1.3473 and 1.3508, respectively. These moving averages form a technical confluence zone that may act as a magnet for price action during a corrective move.

Adding to the case for a pullback, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently surged to 79.9—well above the 70 threshold that signals overbought conditions. A bearish reaction from such elevated levels often indicates a market that has become overextended, increasing the likelihood of a short-term retracement as bullish momentum temporarily fades.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3624

Target price: 1.3510

Stop loss: 1.3680

Validity: Jun 30, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Pound Sterling rose to a weekly high of 1.3626 against the US Dollar on Tuesday, boosted by resilient market risk appetite and cautious signals from the Fed.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36200

Entry Price

1.38000

1.35100

1.33141 -0.00171 -0.13%

98.9

Pips

Profit

1.35100

1.37189

Exit Price

1.36200

Entry Price

1.38000

The British Pound extended its recent rally against the US Dollar on Tuesday, breaking above the psychological 1.3600 mark and hitting a weekly high of 1.3626, as a breakdown in the Israel-Iran ceasefire failed to rattle global markets. Investors remained largely risk-on, shrugging off geopolitical escalation and hawkish rhetoric from US Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, who reiterated that rate cuts were not imminent.

By the close of European trading, GBP/USD had gained over 0.65%, positioning Sterling as one of the best-performing majors on the day. The move higher came despite a relatively light UK data calendar and fresh evidence of labor market weakness flagged by Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden.

The latest leg higher for Sterling came after renewed violence in the Middle East, where both Israel and Iran were accused of violating a previously brokered ceasefire agreement. Despite warnings from US President Donald Trump urging restraint, the conflict appears to be re-escalating, raising broader concerns over regional stability and potential oil supply disruptions.

Ordinarily, such developments would trigger safe-haven flows into the US Dollar. But on Tuesday, that inverse relationship faltered. Markets instead leaned toward optimism, viewing the flare-up as unlikely to derail the broader macroeconomic picture or immediate monetary policy paths. As a result, risk-sensitive currencies like Sterling capitalized on subdued USD demand.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered prepared remarks to the US Congress that further dampened hopes of a near-term rate cut, reinforcing the central bank’s commitment to a data-driven path. Powell warned that “tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity,” a remark that adds complexity to an already ambiguous policy backdrop.

He also suggested the Fed would continue to assess how inflation evolves in light of these pressures, stating that it was too early to commit to any specific easing schedule. The comments contrasted with earlier dovish hints from Fed Governors Waller and Bowman, but aligned with more recent statements from other officials.

Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack, known for her hawkish leanings, recently said cuts may be “on hold for quite some time,” while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated his forecast of just one 25 basis point cut this year — if any. These comments collectively cooled expectations for a July move, even as markets still price in at least one cut before year-end.

Back in the UK, domestic data offered little to change the narrative. The CBI Industrial Trends Survey indicated a slight improvement in sentiment among manufacturers, with output volume expectations easing from -25 to -23 in the three months to June. However, the survey remained firmly in contractionary territory, reflecting subdued industrial activity.

More notable were remarks from BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden, who emphasized that “cumulative evidence of material loosening in the labour market” influenced his vote at the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. Ramsden pointed to mounting signs of employment softness, suggesting that further data confirming these trends could tip the BoE toward a more dovish outlook later this year.

With UK inflation gradually easing and wage growth showing signs of cooling, markets are beginning to anticipate a potential rate cut from the BoE as early as August — though policymakers remain divided on the exact timeline.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD is exhibiting signs of sustained bullish momentum. The pair has decisively broken above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), which had previously acted as dynamic resistance. The recent surge confirms the formation of a new short-term bullish trendline, supported by robust intraday demand and RSI-positive divergence.

Additionally, the pair has successfully breached the upper boundary of a falling wedge formation — a classic bullish continuation pattern — reinforcing prospects for further upside. So long as GBP/USD holds above the breakout zone around 1.3580–1.3600, the bullish case remains intact, with scope for a push toward 1.3680 and potentially 1.3800 in the near term.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3620

STOP LOSS: 1.3510

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3800

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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