USD/CAD Climbs to Session Highs as Oil Slumps and Fed Dovishness Caps Dollar Rally

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Canadian dollar is under pressure amid weakening crude oil prices, which hover near two-month lows as optimism about Ukraine peace talks sparks hopes for eased Russian energy sanctions.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.37900

Entry Price

1.38800

1.37200

1.38434 +0.00287 +0.21%

11.7

Pips

Profit

1.37200

1.38017

Exit Price

1.37900

Entry Price

1.38800

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is struggling to find footing on Monday, slipping against the US dollar (USD) amid a subdued trading environment marked by depressed crude oil prices. The USD/CAD pair has climbed to intraday highs around 1.3770, reflecting a combination of bearish sentiment toward the Loonie and cautious US dollar strength. However, overall market activity remains relatively muted as traders await key US inflation data later this week.

At the heart of the Canadian dollar’s weakness lies the persistent slump in crude oil prices, which have fallen to their lowest levels since early June. Brent crude recently traded near $77 per barrel, retreating on renewed hopes that diplomatic progress in the ongoing Ukraine peace negotiations could lead to a rollback or easing of Western sanctions on Russian energy exports. Such developments would risk a surge in global oil supply, exerting further downward pressure on prices.

For Canada — a major crude oil exporter — oil price dynamics are a critical driver of the Loonie’s fortunes. The Canadian economy’s heavy reliance on energy exports means that sustained weakness in crude prices typically translates into a softer Canadian dollar, as investors adjust their outlook for Canada’s trade balance and economic growth.

Despite efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers to limit supply, the prospect of Russian sanctions being lifted or eased has cast a shadow over the market. As a result, the Loonie remains vulnerable in the near term, with traders reluctant to commit to a bullish stance until the oil market stabilizes.

On the flip side, the US dollar is attempting to regain some ground after recent soft patches, buoyed by increasing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will pivot to easing monetary policy before the end of the year. Investors are now pricing in an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, followed by at least one more before December.

Fed officials have contributed to these dovish expectations. Last Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman emphasized labor market softness, citing signs of cooling that could warrant rate reductions. Similarly, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard downplayed the inflationary impact of tariffs, signaling less urgency for aggressive rate hikes.

However, while these dovish signals have capped the dollar’s upside, they also place significant importance on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release on Tuesday. The consensus forecast anticipates an acceleration in consumer price inflation, which, if confirmed, could dampen hopes of imminent Fed easing and bolster the US dollar.

Market participants are thus bracing for volatility around Tuesday’s data, which will serve as a litmus test for the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory in the coming months.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD appears poised for further upward movement. The pair recently formed a classic triple bottom reversal pattern, successfully breaking above its neckline resistance and currently retesting this level for support — a bullish signal that often precedes a price rally.

Key technical levels to watch include a pivot point at 1.3687, with initial support at 1.3563. On the upside, resistance is expected around 1.3880. Traders should monitor the pair’s behavior around the neckline retest closely, as a confirmed bounce could open the door to a sustained upward trajectory toward resistance levels.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3790

STOP LOSS: 1.3720

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3880

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Swiss franc weakened on Monday as investors favoured risk assets and positioned ahead of key U.S. inflation data, while the dollar advanced on optimism over a potential U.S.-China trade agreement.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.81150

Entry Price

0.81700

0.80600

0.80770 +0.00315 +0.39%

55.0

Pips

Loss

0.80600

Exit Price

0.81150

Entry Price

0.81700

The Swiss franc slipped on Monday as market sentiment tilted cautiously toward risk-taking, while the U.S. dollar strengthened across major currencies ahead of a pivotal U.S. inflation report and renewed hopes for progress in U.S.-China trade talks.

In the absence of major economic releases to start the week, traders have turned their attention to two significant events looming on the horizon: the conclusion of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, and Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) release.

Negotiators from the world’s two largest economies are working against a deadline set for next Tuesday to extend the current trade truce. Without a deal, triple-digit tariffs could return, reigniting volatility in global trade flows. According to U.S. officials, Washington is pushing for Beijing to commit to substantially increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products and advanced technology exports — a move aimed at reducing America’s long-standing trade deficit with China. However, the talks have been complicated by Beijing’s expressed security concerns over the H20 Nvidia chip, a high-performance processor with potential dual-use applications.

Optimism surrounding the talks has helped the dollar retain a firm footing, as investors shy away from placing large bearish bets on the greenback ahead of clarity on both trade and inflation. The U.S. CPI report is forecast to show headline inflation accelerating to 2.9% year-on-year in July from 2.8% in June. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is also projected to edge higher to 3.0% from 2.9%. Stronger-than-expected readings could reinforce the view that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer, lending further support to the dollar.

The Swiss franc’s underperformance was compounded by geopolitical and trade headwinds. U.S. President Donald Trump announced one of the steepest tariff hikes yet on Swiss exports — a 39% levy — targeting a range of goods in what analysts view as a significant blow to Switzerland’s export-driven economy. The move threatens to erode the country’s competitive position in global markets and may dampen demand for the traditionally safe-haven CHF.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF price action is converging into a symmetrical triangle formation, a classic consolidation pattern that often precedes a decisive breakout. The narrowing range of lower highs and higher lows suggests mounting pressure for a directional move.

The immediate resistance zone lies within the 0.80966–0.80888 range. Price action has recently breached this ceiling, pointing to a potential bullish continuation. A sustained move above this zone could confirm an upward breakout, paving the way toward the next target at 0.8170

Short-term momentum indicators remain supportive of further gains, though traders will likely await Tuesday’s CPI report before committing to large directional positions. A strong inflation print could catalyse a decisive move higher in USD/CHF, while a miss might trigger a pullback toward the lower trendline of the triangle.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8115

STOP LOSS: 0.8060

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8170

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices slid on Monday as fading safe-haven demand and improving investor risk appetite weighed on the metal, with markets focusing on US-Russia diplomacy and upcoming Federal Reserve policy moves.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3355.00

Entry Price

3310.00

3400.00

4178.25 -19.66 -0.47%

100.8

Pips

Profit

3310.00

3344.92

Exit Price

3355.00

Entry Price

3400.00

Gold (XAU/USD) started the week under pressure, slipping nearly 1.3% on Monday as investors shifted away from safe-haven assets in favor of riskier bets. The move comes amid optimism that fresh diplomatic overtures between Washington and Moscow could ease geopolitical tensions, while a buoyant equities market draws capital away from bullion.

During the European session, spot gold traded around $3,350 per ounce, retreating from last week’s repeated—but ultimately unsuccessful—attempts to breach the $3,400 psychological barrier. The pullback follows a volatile week for the metal, where bulls failed to sustain momentum despite supportive macroeconomic conditions.

The geopolitical backdrop took a potentially constructive turn late last week when US President Donald Trump announced he would meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15 to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. The announcement boosted global risk sentiment, prompting investors to reallocate capital into equities and higher-yielding assets, pressuring demand for gold.

While easing geopolitical stress can dent gold’s safe-haven appeal, analysts caution that downside pressure may be tempered by shifting expectations for US monetary policy. Markets are increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing an 88% probability of such a move.

Signs of a cooling US labor market have reinforced the case for a more accommodative stance, keeping both the US dollar and Treasury yields subdued—factors that historically lend support to non-yielding assets like gold.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold opened Monday’s trading with a corrective move toward $3,350, holding within a broader bearish framework. The metal has been leaning on the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) for intraday support, preventing deeper losses so far. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into oversold territory—arguably to an exaggerated degree given the magnitude of the price decline—suggesting that a short-term rebound may be possible if sellers begin to take profit.

A decisive break below $3,350 could pave the way for a decline toward $3,330 as the next downside target. If selling pressure accelerates, bears could push the metal to $3,310—seen as a key corrective zone from which a technical rebound might emerge.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3355

STOP LOSS: 3400

TAKE PROFIT: 3310

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The market has been buoyed by a favorable development as President Trump signed an executive order on retirement savings. The document instructs the Department of Labor to prepare for the inclusion of cryptocurrencies, private equity, and other alternative assets in 401(k) retirement plans.

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

119683.3

Entry Price

136927.0

110630.0

89962.4 +0.4 +0.00%

9053.3

Pips

Loss

110630.0

110590.0

Exit Price

119683.3

Entry Price

136927.0

Fundamentals

Bitcoin has broken through the $120,000 mark today, poised to set a new all-time high. The surge is driven by a significant policy shift in Washington. Last Thursday, President Trump signed an executive order allowing the inclusion of cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets in 401(k) retirement accounts. In theory, this decision could unleash trillions of dollars in retirement funds for Bitcoin and other digital assets, thereby bolstering their long-term demand prospects.

According to Bitwise, corporate treasuries and ETFs have purchased 371,111 BTC so far this year, which is 3.75 times the amount mined by miners during the same period.

Retail investors have also begun to accumulate Bitcoin. Glassnode reports that wallets holding as much as 100 BTC are purchasing approximately 17,000 BTC per month, exceeding the current issuance rate of 13,850 BTC. The rapid decline in liquidity on over-the-counter trading platforms has exacerbated this situation, potentially triggering a significant price surge in Bitcoin.

Market dynamics indicate that a strong short squeeze is underway, as the substantial liquidity pool near the current price level forces bearish traders to buy at higher prices. This adds fuel to the already rapid upward momentum. As the upward trend accelerates, short sellers appear increasingly vulnerable.

Liquidity Squeeze and Surge in Buying Pressure Propel Bitcoin Bulls to New Heights_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is poised to break through the $123,231 mark and extend its Fibonacci retracement from $111,889 to $127,390 to the 61.8% retracement level of $136,927, based on the range from $98,418 to $123,231.

The current rally from $111,889 may represent the fifth wave of the entire upward movement that began at $74,373. According to Elliott Wave Theory, the third wave is almost always the strongest and cannot be the shortest of the three waves. Therefore, there is a reasonable upper limit to the upside potential below the 100% forecast level at $136,927.

The medium-term channel resistance near $131,580 reinforces this potential upper limit. The $130,000 area will be a key inflection point to contain the current rebound.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 119000

Target Price: 136927

Stop Loss: 110630

Valid Until: August 26, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 120256/119086/116225

Resistance: 123231/127668/136927

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Underpinned by deepening institutional conviction, Ethereum is probing the 4,220–4,360 USD resistance band. Near term, traders must price in the risk of a leveraged-triggered washout.

SELL ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

4186.30

Entry Price

3183.00

4500.00

3105.12 +3.51 +0.11%

3137.0

Pips

Loss

3183.00

4503.08

Exit Price

4186.30

Entry Price

4500.00

Fundamentals

ETH has rallied more than 21 % in seven sessions and 45 % over 30 days, emerging as a clear beneficiary of the latest U.S. legislative overhaul. The second-largest crypto by market cap is changing hands just shy of 4,300 USD.

Order-book data flag 4,220–4,360 USD as the next major ceiling. Despite elevated implied volatility, institutional capital continues to flow into the Ethereum ecosystem, underscoring the tension between long-term accumulation and speculative positioning. What’s more, exchange-wide estimated leverage ratio (ELR) has spiked to 0.68.

Meanwhile, Binance’s ELR sits at 0.52. The elevated gearing amplifies liquidation-cascade risk on any downside move. Net outflows from Binance (-36,548 USD) diverge sharply from the cross-exchange average (-41,016 USD), implying localized selling pressure.

Besides, U.S. spot-Ethereum ETFs booked a record daily inflow of 726.6 mln USD.

Fidelity and BlackRock alone custody >5 mln ETH, close to 4% of circulating supply. Corporate treasuries are also expanding—SharpLink holds 108.57 mln ETH, and Fundamental Global is preparing a 200 mln ETH allocation. While technicals warn of near-term turbulence, the underlying narrative points to network maturation and accelerating institutional adoption.

Bulls Stake Out Key Range—Sub-$4,108 Bounce Could Trigger 1,000-Point Pullback_1

Technical Analysis

ETH remains capped beneath a multi-year resistance zone. Rising leverage and concentrated Binance inflows have rekindled short-term volatility concerns.

Currently, Ethereum’s upside is capped by a dense resistance zone spanning US$4,220–US$4,360, yet both institutional and retail inflows are surging to record levels—an unmistakable signal that the asset’s underlying fundamentals remain decisively bullish. Against this backdrop, traders are bracing for elevated volatility. However, the broader market narrative is pivoting toward scalability-driven value accretion and capital upgrades.

On the technical front, a decisive breach of the US$4,108 support would open room for a US$1,000 retracement. Nevertheless, provided the critical US$3,353 floor holds, the longer-term bullish structure is expected to stay intact.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4260

Target Price: 3183

Stop Loss: 4500

Valid Until: August 26, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 4146/4008/3738

Resistance: 4349/4436/4560

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Forex

Technical Analysis

Economic

Summary:

The macroeconomic data of the Eurozone remains weak, with GDP growth a meager 0.1% and business activity under pressure. However, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and profit-taking in the U.S. dollar keep the currency pair above 1.1650.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.15400

Entry Price

1.17000

1.14500

1.16240 -0.00186 -0.16%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.14500

1.17075

Exit Price

1.15400

Entry Price

1.17000

Fundamentals

The U.S.-Russia heads of state summit will be the key focus for this week. Trump announced via social media that the two leaders will meet in Alaska, U.S., on August 15th. Statements such as "Putin does not need to meet with Zelenskyy" and "I think we're getting very close" suggest the tripartite summit among the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine is put on hold. In response, leaders of the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Finland, and the EU issued a joint statement on Sunday expressing solidarity with Ukraine. While a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire would benefit Europe's security prospects and slightly favor the euro, complex issues have no simple solutions, and subsequent developments must remain under close watch.

As traders continue to await a Fed rate cut, new catalysts are limited, but earlier data and policy news still exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Trump temporarily appointed Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve Governor, providing another reason for the market to bet on looser monetary policy. Milan is seen as favoring a more accommodative monetary environment, reinforcing the dovish signals the market has perceived from employment data. Overall, the U.S. Dollar Index remains range-bound with oscillations.

Technical Analysis

Regarding the weekly chart, the MACD line and the signal line form a death cross at high levels, while RSI peaks are gradually lowering, a bearish divergence signal. This indicates a short-term consolidation or downward momentum. The weekly EMA12 supports the current price, and the uptrend will continue if this support holds. A breakout below could lead to further declines toward the Bollinger Middle Bands and EMA50, around 1.13 and 1.113, respectively. From a monthly chart perspective, EUR/USD is in a rebound. After recent price dips, the MACD bearish momentum bars have shrunk, and RSI lows have risen, a bullish divergence signal. Currently, after being suppressed by the EMA200, the pair has pulled back and is testing this key level. If support is maintained, a major uptrend could form. However, a failure to hold would resume downside probes for lower lows. Thus, the trend features a monthly rebound with weekly pullbacks, and investors should buy first and sell later in the short term.

Major Positive News for the Euro amid the Summit of Three Heads of State_1

Major Positive News for the Euro amid the Summit of Three Heads of State_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.154

Target price: 1.17

Stop loss: 1.145

Support: 1.16/1.15/1.45

Resistance: 1.183/1.19/1.2

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Summary:

As oil prices stabilize and expectations for a Federal Reserve policy pause strengthen, the Canadian dollar (CAD) gains domestic support. This week's spotlight will be on U.S. inflation (CPI) data, which may determine the near-term trajectory for USDCAD.

BUY USDCAD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.37300

Entry Price

1.38000

1.36800

1.38434 +0.00287 +0.21%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.36800

1.38098

Exit Price

1.37300

Entry Price

1.38000

Fundamentals

The Canadian dollar has found local backing amid stabilizing crude prices and growing market bets that the Fed will hold rates steady. Meanwhile, Canada's July employment report delivered mixed signals: while the unemployment rate edged higher, job additions surpassed forecasts, fueling speculation about the Bank of Canada's next move.

The U.S. dollar (USD) continues to face headwinds from dovish Fed expectations, soft economic data, and evolving trade risks. Most forecasts suggest the USD will adopt a defensive stance, with limited upside potential. Global investors remain cautious, hedging exposures while awaiting clearer macroeconomic signals before restoring confidence in USD strength.

Although the July Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report was released on August 1, its aftermath lingers. The weaker-than-expected headline figure, coupled with downward revisions to prior months' data, signals a cooling labor market. Traders are pricing in near-certain rate cuts—fed funds futures now reflect a 90–94% probability of a September cut , keeping the USD under pressure.

Technical Analysis

Daily Chart: USDCAD has broken above the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle and is now retesting it. A confirmed hold above this level could signal further upside. Failure may lead to a retreat into the consolidation range or renewed declines.

The Bollinger Bands are contracting, and moving averages are flattening, indicating an impending directional breakout. Until a clear trend emerges, traders can adopt a "buy dips, sell rallies" approach, with a preference for long positions. Key resistance levels are EMA200 (1.388) and prior highs (1.401).

Hourly Chart: Price action is range-bound between the Bollinger Band upper and lower limits, lacking a decisive bias. The MACD lines are converging near the zero line, hinting at an impending breakout.

RSI at 50 (neutral) suggests potential buying opportunities near the lower Bollinger Band.

The current price is 1.373. A sustained move above the mid-Bollinger line could trigger an upward breakout.

Therefore, traders are recommended to buy the dips unless key support breaks.