Upside Momentum May Resume if Support Zone Holds on EURCAD

Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

Despite the recent consolidation, the inability of the RSI to break lower suggests a lack of strong bearish momentum.

BUY EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.57093

Entry Price

1.57800

1.56700

1.60882 +0.00019 +0.01%

16.9

Pips

Profit

1.56700

1.57262

Exit Price

1.57093

Entry Price

1.57800

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Mario Centeno voiced serious concerns on Wednesday regarding the euro area’s growth outlook, stating that inflation cannot sustainably return to 2% without a stronger economy. “We need a more robust economy to be compatible with 2% inflation—this is my main position,” Centeno said, as reported by Reuters.

Fresh data from the eurozone continues to reinforce the narrative of cooling inflation, with pockets of resilience observed in the labor market and the services sector. Headline inflation fell below the ECB’s 2% target in May, offering policymakers more room to lower borrowing costs following the recent 25 basis point rate cut.

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the eurozone was confirmed at 1.9% year-over-year in May 2025, marking the first time inflation has dipped below the ECB’s target since September 2024. This suggests that price pressures are gradually easing across the bloc. Meanwhile, core inflation—which strips out volatile components such as energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco—moderated to 2.3%, continuing its downward trajectory.

As inflation shows signs of sustained decline, markets increasingly expect the ECB to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming July meeting. Several policymakers have voiced a preference for caution, advocating a “wait-and-see” approach given lingering economic risks. Governing Council member Robert Holzmann remarked that the ECB should refrain from additional cuts at least until September, while Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned that “new shocks” could still arise despite the ongoing disinflation trend. Both emphasized the need for a data-driven and prudent monetary policy stance in the coming months.

In North America, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced on Monday that he had reached an understanding with former U.S. President Donald Trump to pursue a resolution on trade tariffs within 30 days.

Meanwhile, extended gains in crude oil prices may lend further support to the Canadian dollar (CAD), which is heavily influenced by commodity trends. As Canada remains the largest crude oil exporter to the United States, rising oil prices typically provide a bullish tailwind for the Loonie. Upside Momentum May Resume if Support Zone Holds on EURCAD_1

Upside Momentum May Resume if Support Zone Holds on EURCAD_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, EUR/CAD is currently testing a significant support zone near the 1.5712 level, which aligns closely with the 100-period moving average at 1.5702. Just below, the 200-period moving average at 1.5600 further strengthens the area as a potential launchpad for bullish momentum. Historically, this region has served as a key pivot, and a strong upside reaction here could drive the pair toward the next resistance level at 1.5781.

Additionally, the RSI has remained above the 46 mark, reflecting a neutral-to-bullish tone. Despite the recent consolidation, the inability of the RSI to break lower suggests a lack of strong bearish momentum. As long as the price holds above both the 100 and 200-period moving averages, the upward bias remains intact. This reinforces the idea that buyers may regain control in this zone, increasing the likelihood of a continuation to the upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.5710

Target price: 1.5780

Stop loss: 1.5670

Validity: Jun 27, 2025 15:00:00

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Eva Chen

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The GBPUSD remained under pressure on Wednesday, trading below 1.3500. With UK inflation meeting its target and potential disruptions to central bank plans stemming from the Middle East conflict, the asset may experience further declines.

BUY GBPUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.33500

Entry Price

1.38130

1.31900

1.33249 -0.00063 -0.05%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.31900

1.36499

Exit Price

1.33500

Entry Price

1.38130

Fundamentals

The British pound underperformed against other currencies on Tuesday, influenced by the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. The intensification of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East dampened investor risk appetite, bolstering the U.S. dollar's resilience against other currencies and subsequently pressuring the pound.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% year-over-year, aligning with the Bank of England's projections. The closely watched services inflation rate decreased from 5.4% to 4.7%, also meeting the central bank's expectations. This figure is considered a key indicator of domestic price pressures.

Despite the overall trend indicating a gradual decline in inflation, market participants may be focusing on the renewed acceleration in goods prices, which increased by 2.0% year-over-year, reaching the highest level since November 2023.

The data reveals that while airfare and fuel costs have decreased, these declines have been offset by increases in food prices, including items like chocolate and meat, as well as furniture and household goods such as refrigerators and vacuum cleaners.

Following the release of this data, the British pound experienced volatile trading. As of Tuesday, market expectations were largely pricing in two additional 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Bank of England this year. Furthermore, the conflict between Israel and Iran could complicate the Bank of England's future policy decisions, given that oil prices have risen approximately 14% over the past week. Although investors and economists consider a rate cut by the central bank on Thursday highly improbable, the August meeting may still allow for further action.

Bulls Encountered Resistance, and Both Fundamental and Technical Indicators Are Showing Signs of Weakness_1

Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD experienced a significant decline on Tuesday, validating the strength of a short-term top. The asset previously breached 1.3600, reaching a multi-year high, but despite the recent pullback, the prevailing trend remains bullish.

The 4-hour MACD for the GBPUSD currently exhibits bearish divergence. While there has been a slight intraday rebound, a resumption of the downward movement is anticipated in the short term, with a retracement to the 55-day SMA (currently at 1.3328). A test of this support level could potentially trigger a bounce. A break above 1.3631 would reactivate the rally from 1.2099, with the potential to surpass the 100% Fibonacci projection level from 1.2099, targeting 1.3813.

Conversely, a sustained break below the 55-day SMA would signal a deeper correction in progress.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3350

Target Price: 1.3813

Stop Loss: 1.3190

Valid Until: July 3, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.3414, 1.3335, 1.3310

Resistance: 1.3477, 1.3520, 1.3592

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Middle East Situation

Summary:

WTI crude oil continues to demonstrate resilience within its ascending channel structure, currently consolidating near US$74.65; market concerns regarding escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are curbing downside attempts in crude prices and may re-introduce bullish pressure.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

70.600

Entry Price

80.000

65.000

59.154 -0.655 -1.10%

560.0

Pips

Loss

65.000

64.844

Exit Price

70.600

Entry Price

80.000

Fundamentals

Following direct airstrikes by Israel targeting Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure, crude oil prices have surged since the previous weekend. WTI crude has increased by over 30% from its April low of US$55.20, driven by renewed concerns over supply risks stemming from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that military actions have targeted Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment facility, key nuclear scientists, and core elements of its missile program, vowing continued operations "until the threat is eliminated."

As geopolitical tensions evolve, supply dynamics remain a critical fundamental driver supporting the technical outlook for crude oil prices, with speculation about U.S. involvement in a potential conflict with Iran fueling global supply concerns.

US$80.00 Can Be Easily Reached or Approached with Key Neckline Breakout_1

Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil bulls appear to be gathering upward momentum, with the price currently supported by a clear ascending trendline that has provided reliable support since early June. Recent price action shows that crude oil prices have successfully rebounded from the ascending trendline near US$68.33, confirming the validity of this bullish pattern.

The current price is testing the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level at US$73.26, indicating sustained buying pressure. A successful hold above this level could pave the way for a further move towards the high of US$74.79, which was last seen during the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict. A break above this level would then test the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level near US$76.31.

From a SMA perspective, short-term indicators remain above long-term SMAs, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This bullish trend suggests that any pullback may find dynamic support on these SMAs, offering favorable entry opportunities for trend traders.

The momentum indicator paints an encouraging picture for the bulls. The stochastic oscillator appears to be trending higher from neutral territory, suggesting that buying pressure is beginning to build once more. This indicates that the bears may be losing steam following the recent consolidation phase.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests ample room for further upside before reaching overbought conditions, implying that WTI crude oil prices may sustain further gains without immediately triggering profit-taking activity.

If WTI successfully breaches the current Fibonacci resistance level, the next reasonable target would be a retest of the head and shoulders bottom's ultimate objective near US$78.00-US$80.00.

However, future movements are largely contingent on geopolitical developments; failure to maintain the critical support at US$65.00 would likely lead WTI crude oil prices into further potential downside. If the conflict escalates further or triggers intervention by Western forces, the market could open the door to testing $81.0, a level that may signal a broader bullish reversal in the long-term oil price trend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 70.60

Target Price: 80.00

Stop Loss: 65.00

Valid Until: July 3, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 71.97, 70.44, 67.87

Resistance: 74.79, 77.86, 79.39

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The EUR/USD pair ekes out modest gains after a sharp fall, weighed by surging oil prices, escalating Middle East conflict, and looming Federal Reserve policy risks.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.15216

Entry Price

1.16500

1.14300

1.16542 +0.00116 +0.10%

74.6

Pips

Profit

1.14300

1.15962

Exit Price

1.15216

Entry Price

1.16500

The euro has managed to claw back minor gains against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, trading near 1.1500, as the common currency attempts to recover from Tuesday’s sharp sell-off. However, any meaningful upside remains elusive, with a cocktail of geopolitical instability, rising energy costs, and investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision all limiting the rebound.

On Tuesday, EUR/USD suffered a steep drop, driven largely by market jitters over growing tensions in the Middle East. As the Israel-Iran conflict drags into its sixth consecutive day, financial markets have become increasingly risk-averse. U.S. officials have ratcheted up their rhetoric, with speculation swirling that President Donald Trump is considering direct military action to force a complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. That prospect has sharply heightened fears of regional escalation.

In response, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations warned that Tehran would retaliate to any U.S. strike, a statement that deepened concerns across global markets. With geopolitical risk premiums rising, investors are pouring into traditional safe havens—chief among them the U.S. dollar—undermining demand for the euro.

The impact of this geopolitical overhang is further compounded by a surge in oil prices. Brent crude jumped more than $3 on Tuesday, nearing $75 per barrel—marking a stunning 16% rally since May. For the Eurozone, which is a net energy importer, elevated crude prices translate into rising input costs and margin compression across industrial sectors, thus adding a layer of downside risk to an already fragile economic outlook. Higher oil prices threaten to stall consumer demand and further dampen growth across the bloc, keeping the euro under pressure.

Meanwhile, the latest Eurozone CPI data offered little reprieve. Final consumer price index figures confirmed earlier estimates, indicating a deceleration in inflationary pressure. While a moderation in inflation might typically be seen as a relief, in the context of slowing growth and a potentially more dovish European Central Bank (ECB), the subdued inflation data failed to support the euro. With the ECB unlikely to pivot hawkishly in the near term, rate differentials between the euro and dollar continue to favor the greenback.

Market participants are now firmly focused on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision scheduled for later Wednesday. Although the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, traders are laser-focused on the central bank’s updated projections and “dot plot,” which could recalibrate expectations around future rate moves. Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference will be scrutinized for signals on how the Fed intends to navigate the conflicting dynamics of slowing U.S. growth and stubbornly high inflation.

A hawkish tilt in Powell’s comments—particularly if accompanied by upward revisions to inflation forecasts—could reenergize the dollar and spell further trouble for the euro.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair is showing early signs of a tentative bounce after finding support around the 1.1450–1.1500 area. Tuesday’s fall saw the pair lean into its 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), which has provided a soft floor for now.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has started to curve up from oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a short-term rebound. Price action continues to hover within a broad ascending channel that has defined the pair’s structure in recent weeks. The current zone being tested represents a confluence of technical interest: it aligns with the lower boundary of the channel, a notable liquidity cluster, and the key 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the latest upswing.

This area could offer a compelling entry point for bulls—if the pair manages to hold above it and posts a bullish confirmation candle. Should that occur, the next logical upside target would be the 1.1650 level, which marks the upper range of recent consolidation and coincides with the previous week’s highs.

However, the technical outlook will quickly sour if the euro fails to defend this support zone. A clear breakdown below the channel and the Fib cluster would invalidate the short-term bullish thesis and potentially open the door for a deeper correction toward the 1.1350–1.1400 area.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1520

STOP LOSS: 1.1430

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1650

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Economic

Summary:

GBP/USD rebounds to 1.3452 as investors weigh weak U.S. housing data and rising jobless claims. UK core inflation eases to 3.5%, with both the Fed and BoE expected to hold interest rates.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.34800

Entry Price

1.36000

1.34000

1.33249 -0.00063 -0.05%

10.5

Pips

Profit

1.34000

1.34905

Exit Price

1.34800

Entry Price

1.36000

The British Pound regained modest ground on Wednesday, inching up to 1.3452 against the U.S. Dollar, as currency markets navigated a raft of economic releases and braced for pivotal decisions from two of the world’s most influential central banks. With tensions escalating in the Middle East and risk sentiment wobbling, GBP/USD’s 0.19% climb reflected cautious optimism rooted in softer U.S. data and the cooling trajectory of British inflation.

While the recovery in the Pound was moderate, it came at a time when traders are increasingly focused on the forward guidance set to emerge from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Both institutions are widely expected to maintain current interest rates this week, but the tone of their communications and the latest updates to economic forecasts may carry substantial weight in shaping the summer trading landscape.

In the U.S., the economic picture is growing murkier. Weekly jobless claims rose by 245,000 for the week ending June 14, matching consensus estimates but continuing a recent trend of gradual deterioration in the labor market. More concerning for markets was the sharp pullback in housing activity. May’s housing starts plummeted nearly 10% month-on-month to 1.256 million units—well below April’s 1.392 million print—marking the steepest monthly decline since last summer. Building permits also edged down 2%, signaling a broader slowdown in construction and housing investment.

These figures add further complexity to the Federal Reserve’s policy calculus. While inflation in the U.S. has been stickier than anticipated, signs of cooling in housing and labor markets could reignite discussions about the timing of rate cuts later in the year. Still, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are expected to keep the benchmark federal funds rate steady in tonight’s announcement. More importantly, attention is squarely on the updated "dot plot" of rate projections, which could signal if officials see room for even one or two rate cuts in 2024.

Market participants are particularly sensitive to any hawkish tilt, especially given that just two policymakers moving their dots higher could shift the median view toward more restrictive policy. With inflation still above target and global risks intensifying, the Fed faces a delicate balancing act.

Across the Atlantic, the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) offered some relief for the Bank of England. Headline CPI held steady at 3.4% year-on-year in May, matching expectations, while core inflation—which strips out volatile food and energy prices—slipped from 3.8% to 3.5%. This moderation, though incremental, is encouraging for policymakers who have been reluctant to commit to any imminent easing despite growing market pressure.

For now, traders expect the BoE to hold its benchmark rate at 5.25%, with swap markets pricing in the first 25 basis point cut by September, followed by another in December. However, with wage growth still robust and services inflation proving sticky, the Monetary Policy Committee may opt for a cautious tone. A single dissenting vote in favor of a hike or strong inflation warnings in the meeting minutes could douse market expectations of a dovish pivot.

Adding a layer of uncertainty to the macroeconomic narrative is the renewed escalation between Israel and Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent remarks hinted at dwindling patience and potential American involvement in the conflict. Markets remain on edge, with risk assets treading water and defensive trades finding renewed interest. While there has been no official military response from Washington, the geopolitical backdrop has kept the Dollar bid and weighed slightly on risk-sensitive currencies like the Pound.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD’s recent move appears more corrective than impulsive. After briefly dipping to a two-week low around 1.3410, the pair bounced modestly, though it continues to trade below key resistance levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has edged above the neutral 50-mark, currently reading at 47, suggesting limited momentum.

To re-establish a bullish trend, the Pound must convincingly break above the psychological 1.3500 threshold. A successful breach would likely expose the 20-day Simple Moving Average at 1.3531, with further upside capped near 1.3600. On the downside, 1.3410 remains the immediate support, and a failure to hold above it could trigger a deeper retracement toward 1.3360.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3480

STOP LOSS: 1.3400

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3600

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce its latest interest rate decision tomorrow. While the market expects a 25-basis-point rate cut, there remains a possibility of an unexpected reintroduction of negative rates.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.81738

Entry Price

0.83900

0.80200

0.80544 +0.00089 +0.11%

7.4

Pips

Profit

0.80200

0.81812

Exit Price

0.81738

Entry Price

0.83900

Fundamentals

As of the European trading session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8160, down 0.05% on the day. Market focus today centers on the SNB's rate decision scheduled for tomorrow (June 19th). The consensus anticipates a 25-basis-point cut to 0%, but uncertainty around the policy path has heightened depreciation pressure on the Swiss franc.

A Reuters poll shows that 27 out of 30 economists expect the SNB to cut rates to 0%, while three foresee a potential resumption of negative rates at -0.25%. A rate cut would further narrow the CHF's interest-rate advantage, diminishing its appeal. Though the franc retains its long-term status as a safe-haven currency, near-term policy easing expectations may weigh on its strength. Meanwhile, Switzerland's May CPI fell 0.1% year-on-year, intensifying deflationary risks and providing data-driven justification for monetary easing.

Technical Analysis

Will the Swiss National Bank Reintroduce Negative Rates?_1

Based on the daily chart, USD/CHF enters a key support zone after recent consecutive declines. A double-bottom pattern is formed near 0.8060, with short-term upward momentum gradually emerging. Additionally, the pair has closed higher for three consecutive sessions, confirming the validity of the double-bottom support and suggesting further potential gains.

The USD/CHF is currently facing resistance at 0.8190. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for a test of the 0.8400-0.8475 resistance zone.

Buying at lows is recommended.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.8160

Target price: 0.8390

Stop loss: 0.8020

Valid Until: July 2, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 0.8085/0.8036

Resistance: 0.8190/0.8400

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

The renewed interaction with this support zone may lay the groundwork for another potential bullish rebound. If momentum builds, the first resistance to watch lies around 1.3522.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.34292

Entry Price

1.35220

1.33700

1.33249 -0.00063 -0.05%

29.5

Pips

Profit

1.33700

1.34587

Exit Price

1.34292

Entry Price

1.35220

This week’s economic calendar places the British Pound (GBP) and U.S. Dollar (USD) under the spotlight, as traders brace for two high-impact events. The UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is set to be released on Wednesday, just one day ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) pivotal monetary policy decision. These data points are likely to shape expectations surrounding the future path of UK interest rates and could be decisive for the short-term direction of the Pound.

At the same time, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its own rate decision on Wednesday. This could provide a fresh catalyst for the greenback, with any hawkish surprises potentially triggering sharp moves in the GBP/USD pair. In the background, markets remain cautious amid rising speculation that the BoE may deliver rate cuts sooner and more aggressively than previously expected—an outlook reinforced by recent figures showing the UK economy contracted more than anticipated in April. These headwinds have weighed on the Pound’s performance and contributed to increased volatility across GBP crosses.

Meanwhile, the latest U.S. data has continued to present a mixed macroeconomic picture. Retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, the steepest drop in four months, reflecting cautious consumer behavior amid rising uncertainty linked to potential new tariffs. However, the Retail Sales Control Group—which feeds into GDP—posted a stronger-than-expected 0.4% increase, offering some resilience. Industrial production, however, slipped by 0.2%, undershooting forecasts and highlighting ongoing weakness in U.S. manufacturing output.

Geopolitical tensions have also re-entered the spotlight. U.S. President Donald Trump issued sharp warnings to Iran, demanding an “unconditional surrender” and the dismantling of its nuclear program. Praising recent Israeli airstrikes as "excellent" and "very successful," Trump suggested that future operations could be even more intense unless Tehran agrees to a deal. Speaking from Air Force One after the G7 summit, he made it clear that he is not interested in temporary truces, but rather in achieving a complete end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. "They should have taken the deal… I'm not in the mood to negotiate," he added.

On the inflation front, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for May offered further signs of cooling price pressures. Headline PPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, slightly above April’s 2.5% and in line with expectations. However, the core PPI, which excludes volatile components like food and energy, eased to 3.0% from the prior 3.2%, reinforcing the broader narrative that underlying inflation is gradually declining. Major Support in Focus as GBPUSD Eyes a Potential Rebound_1

Major Support in Focus as GBPUSD Eyes a Potential Rebound_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has once again revisited a strong support zone around the 1.3419 area—a level last tested on May 28. Following that earlier test, the pair staged a bullish bounce that led to a local high near 1.3632. The renewed interaction with this support zone may lay the groundwork for another potential bullish rebound. If momentum builds, the first resistance to watch lies around 1.3522. A clear breakout above this area could pave the way for a retest of recent highs.

This support zone gains further significance as it aligns closely with the 200-period moving average, currently sitting near 1.3430. A pullback into this zone could be viewed as a healthy technical correction, offering a potential launchpad for another leg higher.

Momentum indicators further support the bullish case. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 31, approaching oversold territory and signaling a potential influx of buyers. Moreover, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence compared to the price action observed on May 28. This divergence suggests weakening bearish momentum and may indicate that sellers are losing steam.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3427

Target price: 1.3522

Stop loss: 1.3370

Validity: Jun 25, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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