Unilateral Surge! Gold Storms Toward $3,700

Tank

Commodity

Forex

Technical Analysis

Economic

Summary:

U.S. consumer-confidence and inflation-expectation data may offer fresh cues on the Fed's future rate trajectory, directly swaying dollar-denominated gold. Yet trade headlines will also be scrutinized closely, as the gold heads for a fourth consecutive weekly advance.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3651.00

Entry Price

3900.00

3550.00

4306.61 +7.22 +0.17%

296.0

Pips

Profit

3550.00

3680.60

Exit Price

3651.00

Entry Price

3900.00

Fundamentals

Despite a pause in the dollar's downtrend and a rise in risk appetite, gold attracted fresh safe-haven flows after news of new U.S. tariffs dented investor sentiment. The Financial Times reported late Thursday that Washington will press the G7 to impose sharply higher tariffs on Russian crude purchased by India and China, aiming to force Moscow into peace talks with Ukraine. Meanwhile, the market continues to price in three Fed rate cuts this year, with the potential for a sizable reduction at the September meeting.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market continues to price in a 92% probability of a 25 bp cut and an 8% chance of a 50 bp reduction at the Fed's September meeting. Dovish rhetoric remains intact as softening labour-market conditions eclipse sticky inflation, underpinning non-interest-bearing gold. The U.S. CPI rose 0.4% MoM in August, twice July's 0.2% pace, lifting the annual inflation rate to 2.9%, in line with consensus. Later today, U.S. consumer-confidence and inflation-expectation prints could offer fresh cues on the Fed's rate trajectory and, by extension, USD-denominated gold. Trade headlines will also be scrutinised, while the gold is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly advance.

Labor-market data fell short of expectations again, pressuring the U.S. dollar index. Initial jobless claims for the first week of September jumped by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021 and well above consensus. The print is notable for two reasons: (i) the single-week increase is the largest in nearly three years, pointing to a rapid contraction in labour demand; and (ii) unadjusted claims in Texas surged by 15,300, suggesting a regional or sector-specific—possibly energy- or tech-related—deterioration in employment conditions. While continuing claims came in marginally below forecast, indicating that long-term unemployment has yet to deteriorate, the abrupt spike in initial claims is typically viewed as an early-cycle signal of an economic inflection point.

Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart, gold pierced the upper Bollinger band but was quickly rejected. After finding support at the lower band, it rebounded sharply. The MACD fast-slow line has printed a golden cross and an "angel-kiss" continuation pattern. RSI reads 66, signalling strong bullish momentum that is likely to retest the recent 3,675 high and possibly extend beyond 3,700. A renewed slide below 3,610 would open room for a probe toward the EMA200 at 3,581.

Weekly, price broke above the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle and has since ridden the upper Bollinger band higher. The bands are widening, the moving-average stack is fanning upward and MACD has registered a golden cross. RSI at 72 is in overbought territory, leaving the market vulnerable to a pullback. Overall, a throwback to the triangle's former resistance-turned-support is probable before the next leg up. Provided the EMA12 holds, the up-trend remains intact.

In conclusion, the advised trading strategy is to buy dips and favour longs.

Unilateral Surge! Gold Storms Toward $3,700_1

Unilateral Surge! Gold Storms Toward $3,700_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3651

Target Price: 3900

Stop Loss: 3550

Support: 3600/3550/3400

Resistance: 3700/3800/3900

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Manuel

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

A sustained rebound potentially setting the stage for another move toward the all-time high near 3673.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

3620.00

Entry Price

3670.00

3580.00

4306.61 +7.22 +0.17%

Pips

EXPIRED

3580.00

3685.02

Exit Price

3620.00

Entry Price

3670.00

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose again in August, with headline CPI climbing to 2.9% year-over-year while core CPI held steady at 3.1%. The recent relief from falling gasoline prices is being offset by renewed price pressures in housing and food, while prices of consumer goods such as electronics and clothing are also trending higher as tariffs from the Trump administration begin to trickle down to consumers.

Money markets in the U.S. have now fully priced in three quarter-point interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) before the end of the year. The Fed is widely expected to deliver an initial 25 basis point cut at its policy meeting next week, with markets also anticipating two additional rate cuts at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings scheduled for October and December.

Adding to the dovish tone, initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 surged to 267K, well above the consensus estimate of 235K and notably higher than the previous reading of 237K. This sharp increase underscores renewed weakness in the labor market, which could further strengthen the case for the Fed to move swiftly on policy easing.

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now fully pricing in three rate cuts by year-end. Markets view a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming September 17 FOMC meeting as virtually certain, while the probability of additional cuts on October 29 and December 10 has climbed to nearly 95%.

Meanwhile, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data surprised to the downside, with headline PPI falling 0.1% month-over-month in August versus a forecasted 0.3% increase, bringing the annual rate down to 2.6% compared to the expected 3.3%. Core PPI also declined 0.1% on the month, missing expectations for a 0.3% gain and dragging the annual rate to 2.8% from a projected 3.5%.

On the political front, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board in a 13-11 vote on Wednesday, sending it to the full Senate just ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Miran, who also serves on the White House Council of Economic Advisers, is seen as supportive of faster rate cuts. However, his dual role has raised concerns about the Fed’s political independence.

Separately, the Trump administration said Wednesday it will appeal a federal judge’s ruling that temporarily blocked President Donald Trump from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The case stems from allegations made prior to her confirmation, which the court ruled did not meet the “for cause” standard required under the Federal Reserve Act.

In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down its annual benchmark payroll figures by -911K for the 12 months through March 2025, well below economists’ estimates of -682K, adding further weight to signs of labor market weakness. Uptrend Could Resume from Key Support on XAUUSD_1

Uptrend Could Resume from Key Support on XAUUSD_1

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD is currently rebounding from its 100-period moving average on the 1-hour chart. If this support holds, the ongoing uptrend could resume from this zone, offering buying opportunities on dips. The 100-period moving average sits near 3630, while the 200-period moving average lies around 3578 — a level that has also acted as a solid support zone in previous pullbacks and could serve as the next downside target if the price weakens further.

Meanwhile, the RSI has dropped to 32, approaching oversold territory. Traders will be closely watching price action as it tests this support area, with a sustained rebound potentially setting the stage for another move toward the all-time high near 3673.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 3620

Target price: 3670

Stop loss: 3580

Validity: Sep 19, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

If USDCAD fails to break above the right shoulder and post a new higher high, price could resume lower, with the next key support seen near 1.3758.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.38330

Entry Price

1.37600

1.39100

1.37708 +0.00008 +0.01%

53.2

Pips

Profit

1.37600

1.37798

Exit Price

1.38330

Entry Price

1.39100

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation picked up again in August, with headline CPI rising to 2.9% year-over-year while core CPI held steady at 3.1%. The recent relief from falling gasoline prices is being offset by renewed price pressures in housing and food costs. At the same time, consumer goods such as electronics and clothing are climbing in price as the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration begin to filter through to consumers’ wallets.

Money markets in the U.S. have now fully priced in three quarter-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) before year-end. The Fed is widely expected to deliver an initial 25 basis point cut at its policy meeting next week, with markets also fully anticipating two additional rate cuts at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings scheduled for October and December.

Adding to the softening tone, initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 jumped to 267K, far above the consensus forecast of 235K and notably higher than the prior reading of 237K. This sharp rise underscores renewed weakness in the labor market, which could reinforce the case for the Fed to act sooner rather than later.

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, interest rate futures traders are fully pricing in three rate cuts by year-end. A 25 basis point cut is viewed as virtually certain at the upcoming September 17 FOMC meeting, while the probability of additional rate cuts on October 29 and December 10 is now hovering near 95%.

Meanwhile, Canadian money markets remain firm, with Canadian bond yields easing midweek and helping to provide some support to the Loonie on Thursday. Still, Canada’s economy appears to be in the early stages of a recession, and economic indicators continue to point toward further monetary easing from the Bank of Canada (BoC) on the horizon.

Canada’s Ivey PMI dropped sharply from a robust 55.8 in July to 50.1 in August, just above the stagnation threshold, signaling a marked slowdown in economic activity. This deterioration has intensified concerns about the resilience of Canada’s economy and is increasing the likelihood of a dovish shift from the BoC. Technical Signals Point to Potential Downturn in USDCAD_1

Technical Signals Point to Potential Downturn in USDCAD_1

Technical Analysis

USDCAD is currently shaping a head-and-shoulders formation, with the pair in the process of building the second shoulder. Depending on how this pattern develops, it can be either bullish or bearish — but in this case, the setup leans bearish. If USDCAD fails to break above the right shoulder and post a new higher high, price could resume lower, with the next key support seen near 1.3758.

The 100-period and 200-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart are positioned at 1.3818 and 1.3802 respectively. A clear break below these levels could accelerate downside momentum and confirm the start of a broader corrective move. Meanwhile, the RSI recently peaked at 68, just shy of overbought territory, suggesting that momentum could soon reverse. A new leg lower from current levels would align with this overextension, whereas a breakout above the right shoulder would invalidate the bearish setup and open the door to further gains.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3833

Target price: 1.3760

Stop loss: 1.3910

Validity: Sep 19, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Commodity

Summary:

Gold consolidated around USD $3,620 on Thursday. An optimal cocktail of political uncertainty, escalating geopolitical risk and firmly-anchored Fed-rate-cut expectations continues to underpin the gold. We expect bullion to remain bid through the remainder of 2025.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

3626.00

Entry Price

3850.00

3567.00

4306.61 +7.22 +0.17%

Pips

EXPIRED

3567.00

3780.24

Exit Price

3626.00

Entry Price

3850.00

Fundamentals

The recent record-high print has been driven by a “risk-off” narrative centred on sticky inflation, ballooning sovereign debt and a visibly cooling US economy. Since April, the scaling-back of speculative length, juxtaposed with constrained supply and concurrent uptick in end-user demand, is poised to exert incremental upward pressure on the gold price.

ETF flows—particularly those of Asian-listed vehicles—remain a pivotal swing factor for gold. Any re-acceleration of inflow momentum would provide an additional tail-wind to prices; we therefore raise our 12-month target to USD 3,850.

A persistently accommodative monetary-policy backdrop is universally regarded as enhancing gold’s carry-adjusted attractiveness, having already propelled the metal almost 6% higher since early September. After such a pronounced rally, however, the market is vulnerable to a tactical pullback: the up-trendline drawn from the May low has been violated and longs are treating the all-time high of USD 3,657 as an opportune profit-taking level.

Meanwhile, the RSI is on the verge of printing a bearish divergence. Given the steepness of the rollover, a corrective move toward the psychological USD 3,550 mark is in play.

In sum, although gold’s upward momentum is showing early signs of fatigue, the market’s structural inertia offers investors little justification to price in a decisive regime shift from bullish to bearish dominance. That said, a high-impact surprise next Wednesday remains on the tail-risk radar.

Momentum Ebbs, but Medium- to Long-Term Floor Remains Rock-Solid_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the gold continues to churn just below record highs.

Momentum gauges remain aligned with the prevailing bullish narrative. During the day, although a pullback has unfolded, no broad-based liquidation has yet materialized. For prospective shorts, the constructive cue is that the downward revisions in both PPI and payrolls failed to propel gold through the USD 3,700 resistance.

This suggests that, before any sustained break of the 3,700 handle, a retracement toward the USD 3,575 support cluster is the higher-probability path.

Conversely, if bullish impulse re-engages, a print of new all-time highs would require a decisive close above USD 3,700—a scenario most likely catalyzed by either an escalation in geopolitical tail-risk or a material downside surprise in next month’s U.S. CPI print.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3626

Target Price: 3850

Stop Loss: 3567

Valid Until: September 26, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 3607/3561/3544

Resistance: 3644/3646/3660

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

Japan’s CGPI accelerated to a 2.7% YoY pace in August, while the rate of decline in import prices continued to moderate.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

147.122

Entry Price

151.800

145.890

155.791 -0.023 -0.01%

14.0

Pips

Profit

145.890

147.262

Exit Price

147.122

Entry Price

151.800

Fundamentals

Recently, USDJPY has experienced heightened volatility. Since printing a cycle low at 139.89 on 22 April 2025, the pair has remained confined within a four-month-plus "rising-wedge" formation.

On Monday, USDJPY rallied as much as 0.8% to an intraday peak of 148.59, yet the entire move has since been retraced. By Thursday the quote was effectively unchanged at 147.98.

Market participants have largely looked through the political noise stemming from Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation, instead focusing on variables that could alter the Bank of Japan(BoJ)’s current trend of monetary-policy normalisation.

Thursday’s release showed Japan’s August Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) edging up to a 2.7% YoY pace from 2.5% in July, in line with consensus. The uptick was driven primarily by food & beverage prices, which accelerated to 5.0% YoY (prev. 4.7%). Utility charges, cushioned by government subsidies, fell 2.9% YoY, mitigating the headline impulse.

Import-price deflation narrowed markedly for a second straight month: yen-denomitated import prices declined only 3.9% YoY versus a revised –10.3% drop in July. The data signal that, while domestic food inflation remains sticky, external cost pressures are now stabilising.

All told, the shifting fundamental backdrop is likely to exert upward pressure on the JPY.

Inflection Point Looms, Yet Range-Bound Dynamics Prevail_1

Technical Analysis

The intraday bias of USDJPY stays neutral. The pair is expected to consolidate above 146.29. As long as 149.12 caps on a closing basis, upside risk remains dominant. Conversely, a sustained break below the EMA55 (currently 147.15) would confirm completion of the 139.87 rebound—already tracing out a clear three-wave advance to 150.90—and open the door to a deeper corrective leg.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 149.19

Target Price: 151.80

Stop Loss: 145.89

Valid Until: September 26, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 146.85/145.86/145.21

Resistance: 149.19/150.97/151.32

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The U.S. dollar fell sharply against the Japanese yen on Thursday, retreating below 147.50 after U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations of prolonged monetary policy easing, with technical signals pointing to further near-term weakness before any potential rebound.

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

147.000

Entry Price

145.300

148.300

155.791 -0.023 -0.01%

42.2

Pips

Profit

145.300

146.578

Exit Price

147.000

Entry Price

148.300

The U.S. dollar suffered a sudden reversal against the Japanese yen on Thursday, giving up earlier gains after fresh U.S. inflation data prompted renewed selling pressure across the greenback. The move underscored fragile sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and highlighted how quickly positioning can shift when traders recalibrate rate expectations.

After briefly climbing above the 148.00 handle in the Asian session, USD/JPY staged a dramatic U-turn and slipped into negative territory, falling as low as 147.35 by the European afternoon. The decline marked a 0.1% drop on the day, but the reversal carried more weight than the headline change, as the pair’s failure to hold above a psychologically important resistance level reignited bearish momentum.

The catalyst came from the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August, which showed annual inflation accelerating to 2.9% from 2.6% in July. While the data confirmed that price pressures remain sticky, markets interpreted the details as insufficient to alter expectations for rate cuts later this year. The Fed’s challenge remains balancing a steady disinflation trend with signs of cooling growth, and investors appeared convinced that policymakers will prioritize supporting the economy rather than risking overtightening.

The softer dollar response contrasted with earlier expectations that firmer inflation would provide support. Instead, Treasury yields slipped modestly, and rate-sensitive currencies like the yen gained ground. The shift reflects how markets are increasingly looking beyond headline inflation, focusing instead on the Fed’s broader narrative that restrictive policy has largely run its course.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the outlook for USD/JPY has tilted bearish in the short term. The pair’s retreat coincided with a break below a trendline near 147.40 on lower intraday charts, erasing the momentum built earlier this week. With the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) acting as overhead resistance, the probability of a sustained recovery appears limited in the near term.

Momentum oscillators add weight to the downside case. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which had previously been hovering in overbought territory, has turned lower, signaling waning buying pressure and reinforcing the likelihood of further corrective moves. We are now eyeing the 146.80 zone as the next key support level. A decisive break below that threshold could open the door to deeper losses, though short-term rebounds remain possible as markets digest the inflation-driven move.

Still, medium-term bulls have not completely relinquished control. Should the pair find strong buying interest near 146.80, a recovery back toward the 149.00 region remains plausible. That level has served as a magnet for price action in recent weeks, with traders reluctant to push the yen significantly higher amid Japan’s ongoing ultra-loose monetary stance.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 147.00

STOP LOSS: 148.30

TAKE PROFIT: 145.30

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The U.S. August CPI met expectations at 2.9% YoY while jobless claims jumped unexpectedly, fueling speculation of three Fed rate cuts before year-end.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.66499

Entry Price

0.68000

0.65800

0.66426 -0.00094 -0.14%

12.8

Pips

Profit

0.65800

0.66627

Exit Price

0.66499

Entry Price

0.68000

The Australian dollar staged a strong rebound against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, as investors digested a mixed batch of U.S. economic data that simultaneously confirmed persistent inflation and revealed unexpected softness in the labor market. The AUD/USD pair, which had dipped to 0.6590 earlier in the session, reversed course and pushed back toward intraday highs around the 0.6630 level.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 2.9% year-over-year in August, in line with market expectations and a modest acceleration from July’s 2.7%. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, held steady at 3.1%, also matching consensus. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.4%, sharply higher than the prior 0.2% and above the 0.3% anticipated.

While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the report was not seen as alarming. Market reaction instead turned decisively after a surprise jump in U.S. Initial Jobless Claims. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits surged to 263,000 in the week ending September 6, well above both the previous week’s 236,000 and consensus forecasts of 235,000. The figure, the highest since mid-July, suggests that cracks are beginning to appear in what has been a resilient labor market.

For investors, the combination of inflation aligned with expectations and labor data pointing to weakness reinforced the belief that the Federal Reserve is ready to accelerate its pivot toward easing. Futures markets are now fully pricing in three rate cuts before the end of the year, one at each of the Fed’s remaining policy meetings. This aggressive repricing pressured the U.S. dollar, while equity markets rallied sharply on the prospect of looser financial conditions.

The greenback’s pullback offered breathing room for the Australian dollar, which earlier in the day had come under pressure from domestic data. Australia’s September Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.7% from 3.9%, suggesting households expect price pressures to intensify. While the data supports the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious stance, it also raised concerns about sticky inflation eroding real incomes. Initially, this weighed on the Aussie, but broader U.S. dollar weakness quickly overshadowed the domestic release.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD has displayed resilience near key support zones and is once again challenging a familiar ceiling around 0.6620–0.6630. The pair had initially slipped after failing to breach this barrier in earlier trading, but Thursday’s rebound signals renewed bullish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which had entered overbought territory earlier in the week, has reset lower, allowing the pair to build fresh upward traction. Positive signals are emerging, with price action now leaning on a short-term ascending trendline that has guided the rally from August lows. A decisive break above 0.665 could open the door toward the 0.6700 and 0.6800 psychological levels, while failure to hold recent gains risks a pullback toward 0.6580.

Overall, the technical backdrop favors buyers, especially as speculative flows remain biased against the U.S. dollar. However, traders should remain cautious given the heavy event risk ahead, including further Fed commentary and upcoming U.S. retail sales figures, which could reset market expectations for growth and consumption.