Technical Confluence Points to Downward Retracement

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This area represents a high-tension pivot, as oscillating indicators like the RSI and MACD suggest the bullish momentum may be nearing exhaustion.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.66700

Entry Price

0.66270

0.66820

0.66970 +0.00401 +0.60%

12.0

Pips

Loss

0.66270

0.66820

Exit Price

0.66700

Entry Price

0.66820

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack adopted a decidedly hawkish tone recently, cautioning that the November CPI figures may have understated annual price pressures due to data irregularities. She suggested that the neutral interest rate might be higher than current market assumptions, advocating for a cautious approach toward further monetary easing.

Echoing this sentiment, Fed Governor Stephen Miran highlighted CPI data discrepancies linked to the recent government shutdown. While he acknowledged that recent data aligns with his economic assessment, Miran reiterated that further reductions in the policy rate remain likely in the long term. Currently, markets are pricing in two Fed rate cuts for 2026; however, officials remain divided following the cumulative 75 basis point (bps) easing implemented this year. Hammack, a 2026 FOMC voting member, stated in a Wall Street Journal interview that she sees no immediate need to adjust rates for several months, suggesting the central bank could maintain the current 3.50%–3.75% range until spring.

Inflation data released last Thursday showed U.S. CPI for November cooling to 2.7% year-over-year, down from the previous 3%. Nevertheless, economists urge caution in interpreting these figures, as the 43-day government shutdown may have distorted significant portions of the economic report.

In Australia, investors are shifting their focus to the RBA Meeting Minutes scheduled for release on Tuesday. Market participants are searching for clues regarding the central bank's policy outlook and its assessment of persistent inflationary pressures. As of December 18, the ASX 30-day Interbank Cash Rate futures for February 2026 were trading at 96.34, implying a 27% probability of a rate hike to 3.85% at the next RBA Board meeting.

This hawkish sentiment is supported by Friday’s data, which showed Consumer Inflation Expectations accelerating to 4.7% from the previous 4.5%. To gain further insight into the Australian interest rate path, investors will closely analyze the minutes from the December 9 meeting, where the RBA held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 3.6%. Technical Confluence Points to Downward Retracement_1

Technical Confluence Points to Downward Retracement_1

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD has maintained a strong bullish impulse, rapidly approaching the local resistance level of 0.6670, a zone not visited since December 12. This area represents a high-tension pivot, as oscillating indicators like the RSI and MACD suggest the bullish momentum may be nearing exhaustion.

Specifically, the RSI has climbed to 77, placing the pair deep into overbought territory. Simultaneously, the MACD is exhibiting what is often referred to as "hidden divergence" against the recent local highs and is currently showing potential for a bearish crossover. If this MACD signal is confirmed, we could see a technical correction from these levels toward the 0.6630 support zone.

The 100 and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are currently situated at 0.6619 and 0.6635, respectively. Should the price reach the expected resistance and begin to pull back, these MAs align closely with the 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. This confluence increases the likelihood that a correction would find a magnet in this zone. However, a high-volume breakout and a close above the local high would invalidate this bearish setup, potentially opening the door for further gains.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6660

Target price: 0.6627

Stop loss: 0.6687

Validity: Dec 31, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

USDJPY is trading near 157.3–157.8, with the pair pressing toward the upper end of its yearly range as market forces reflect sustained yen weakness and persistent interest rate differentials....

BUY USDJPY

EXP

PENDING

157.100

Entry Price

157.850

152.900

156.119 -0.908 -0.58%

Pips

PENDING

152.900

Exit Price

157.100

Entry Price

157.850

Market overview

Today’s price action shows USDJPY holding above 157.20, with charts showing intraday swings between roughly 157.00 and 157.90. The pair has rallied from lower levels earlier in the week as the Bank of Japan hiked to 0.75%, yet markets reacted with yen weakening rather than strengthening because forward guidance emphasized continued accommodative real rates. This divergence has supported renewed demand for USDJPY at dips. The broader macro context sees the U.S. dollar maintaining resilience due to stable yields and relative strength, while the Japanese yen remains historically weak despite policy normalization. The current M15 structure reflects higher lows and repeated support tests near the 157.0 zone, setting up a classical buy-on-dips pattern.

Market sentiment

Sentiment toward the yen is bearish as traders increasingly price negative real rates in Japan meaning that even though nominal rates have risen, inflation outpaces them, making the yen unattractive relative to the U.S. dollar. Carry traders remain engaged: borrowing in low-yield yen to invest in higher-yielding dollar assets is still a prevailing theme, which structurally supports USDJPY upside unless intervention occurs. Japanese officials have warned they will act against “excessive” yen moves, but current commentary suggests readiness to stabilize rather than aggressively defend deeper weakness a stance that has kept speculative flows alive. Meanwhile, broader FX sentiment reflects risk appetite that favours the dollar against most developed market peers, adding to demand for USDJPY on corrective pullbacks.

Technical analysis

USDJPY Near Multi-Month Highs as Yen Weakness Persists_1

On the M15 timeframe, Bollinger Bands (20,2) show price oscillating near the upper band, with recent pullbacks finding support close to the mid-line a signal that buyers step in early and play dips. A sustained squeeze above the mid-band following pullbacks implies short-term buy pressure. The Ichimoku indicator reveals price action above or at the edge of the cloud after corrective dips, with Tenkan Sen (conversion) trending above Kijun Sen (base) when support is respected interpreted as short-term bullish alignment. The Stochastic (5,3,3) oscillator frequently cycles from oversold back upward, indicating that retracements are being absorbed by buyers rather than breaking structure. In combination, these metrics favor upside continuation as long as intraday support holds near 157.00.

Trade plan

Entry: 157.10

Take Profit: 157.85

Stop Loss: 152.90

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

BTCUSD has rebounded and is holding around $88,800–$90,000, with buyers stepping in near support after recent consolidation....

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

89500.0

Entry Price

91400.0

88100.0

87609.0 -2124.9 -2.37%

1400.0

Pips

Loss

88100.0

88098.8

Exit Price

89500.0

Entry Price

91400.0

Market overview

Bitcoin’s price action today shows a resilient bounce back above $88,000, with live trackers placing BTC near $88,800–$89,300 (as of current feeds). The intraday range is marked by highs testing around $90,500 and lows near $87,900, suggesting bulls are defending the lower part of this zone. Despite a broader backdrop of recent sideways movement, there’s evidence of renewed buying pressure as traders look for end-of-year upside, a pattern often referred to as a “Santa rally” in crypto markets where prices rise into late December amid optimistic positioning. Recent commentary indicates BTC up ~6.5% from local lows with analysts highlighting upside potential if key levels hold. (TradingView)

Market context shows Bitcoin has been sideways below the psychological $90,000 threshold for several sessions, but this consolidation has allowed short-term pressure to ease. Data over the past week shows BTC bouncing from mid-$80Ks, signaling a potential build of buyer conviction around annual close levels.

Market sentiment

Sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, fueled by seasonal patterns where crypto assets often gain as traditional markets close for holidays. Recent news points to a rebound in broader risk assets and hopes of renewed institutional interest after weeks of ETF outflows abated, offering tactical fuel for short-term buyers. The psychology on M15 is that buyers are more active on dips near support, while sellers lack strong conviction to push the market convincingly lower amid year-end positioning. This creates asymmetric pressure favorable for tactical long entries, especially when bulls defend critical intraday support and short-term indicators start improving.

Technical analysis

BTCUSD Gears Up for Santa Rally Breakout?_1

Bollinger Bands (20,2) on M15 show price holding above the 20-period midline, turning the mid-band into a dynamic support after recent rejections at lower levels. This positioning suggests that volatility compression could resolve upward if price continues to respect the mid-band and heads back toward the upper band, which sits near short-term resistance. A clean close above the mid-band with expanding upper bands would confirm short-term bullish momentum.

The Ichimoku (9,26,52) framework on M15 supports this view as price rotates above the cloud after corrective dips, with the Tenkan Sen (conversion line) starting to lift relative to the Kijun Sen (base line) a short-term bullish signal if sustained. The cloud itself isn’t offering heavy resistance yet, meaning recovery attempts have space to run before structural hurdles.

Stochastics (5,3,3) on M15 reflect a fresh bullish crossover from oversold towards neutral zones, implying a potential acceleration of momentum if buyers stay active. A sustained upward cross reinforced by price support above the mid-band will strengthen the bullish setup.

Trade plan

Entry: $89,500

Take Profit: $91,400

Stop Loss: $88,100

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

GBP/JPY trades above 211 as resilient UK growth data supports Sterling, while BoJ tightening and intervention risks limit upside, keeping the broader trend bullish but increasingly stretched.

BUY GBPJPY

EXP

TRADING

211.401

Entry Price

213.250

209.800

210.844 -0.508 -0.24%

0.0

Pips

Flat

209.800

Exit Price

211.401

Entry Price

213.250

The British Pound advanced against the Japanese Yen on Monday, with GBP/JPY trading around 211.10 at the time of writing, up roughly 0.10% on the session, as relatively thin holiday liquidity amplified price moves across major FX markets. While subdued volumes limited directional conviction, the pair found support from renewed interest in Sterling following the release of UK economic data that broadly met expectations, reinforcing the narrative of resilience rather than recovery in the British economy.

Figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy expanded by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, slowing from 0.2% growth in the previous period. On an annual basis, GDP rose by 1.3%, unchanged from the prior reading. While the data confirmed a moderation in momentum, it also pushed back against more pessimistic expectations of stagnation, particularly given the ongoing effects of restrictive monetary policy.

A closer look at the composition of growth highlights a familiar pattern. Services and construction remained the primary drivers of economic activity, providing a modest cushion to headline growth. In contrast, the production sector continued to act as a drag, underscoring structural challenges facing UK manufacturing amid higher borrowing costs, soft external demand and lingering post-pandemic inefficiencies. Still, for currency markets, the absence of a sharper slowdown was enough to underpin Sterling in the near term.

From a policy perspective, the data does little to materially shift expectations for the Bank of England (BoE) in the immediate horizon. The central bank delivered a 25 basis point rate cut last week, while emphasizing that future decisions would remain strictly dependent on incoming data. With inflation easing and growth showing signs of fatigue, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has struck a more dovish tone, prompting investors to look further ahead toward a more accommodative policy stance.

Money market pricing now reflects approximately 37 basis points of rate cuts in 2026, according to the Capital Edge rate probability tool, suggesting that investors see the current easing cycle as gradual rather than aggressive. In this context, Sterling’s resilience appears less about optimism on UK growth and more about the absence of downside surprises—a dynamic that continues to shape GBP performance across major crosses.

On the other side of the pair, the Japanese Yen remains supported by a combination of policy shifts and safe-haven demand. Persistent geopolitical tensions, along with broader concerns about global fiscal sustainability, have helped preserve the Yen’s defensive appeal. Comments from Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, have also revived speculation of potential official intervention should currency moves become excessive, effectively discouraging aggressive Yen selling.

Monetary policy developments in Japan add another layer of complexity. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently raised its policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level in decades, marking a continued departure from ultra-loose policy. While Governor Kazuo Ueda has remained deliberately cautious, stressing that future hikes will depend on economic, inflation and financial conditions, analysts increasingly view Japan’s tightening cycle as unfinished. According to ING, additional rate increases are likely, though not imminent, with a more meaningful timeline extending into 2026.

Japanese authorities have also reinforced their commitment to currency stability. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama recently reiterated that Japan stands ready to act against disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market, in line with bilateral agreements. This firm stance has helped cap GBP/JPY upside, even as Sterling benefits from relatively stable domestic data.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY continues to exhibit a bullish structure. The pair capitalized on sustained upside momentum to break above the 209.85 level, corresponding to the 261% Fibonacci extension, before extending gains toward 211.05. This breakout opens the door for further advances, provided key support levels remain intact.

Momentum indicators, however, suggest some caution is warranted. The stochastic oscillator has entered overbought territory, raising the risk of short-term consolidation within the ascending channel. As long as prices hold above the 209.80 support zone, the broader bullish bias remains intact, with scope for a push toward 211.60, followed by resistance near 213.25, the upper boundary of the bullish channel.

The expected trading range for the session stands between 210.00 and 211.60, with the trend forecast remaining bullish, albeit increasingly sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment and policy rhetoric from both central banks.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 211.400

STOP LOSS: 209.80

TAKE PROFIT: 213.25

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

NZD/USD has rebounded from two-week lows on improved risk sentiment and RBNZ policy support, but upside remains limited by softer rate-hike expectations, US dollar safe-haven demand, and lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

BUY NZDUSD

EXP

TRADING

0.57949

Entry Price

0.59000

0.57350

0.58369 +0.00419 +0.72%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.57350

Exit Price

0.57949

Entry Price

0.59000

The New Zealand dollar staged a modest recovery at the start of the week, with NZD/USD trading around 0.5790 on Monday, up roughly 0.6% on the day, after bouncing from a two-week low near 0.5735 set late last week. The rebound reflects a tentative improvement in global risk sentiment, though the broader outlook for the currency pair remains clouded by shifting interest-rate expectations and persistent demand for the US dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

Support for the Kiwi has come primarily from a steadier tone across global equity markets, which have helped lift demand for growth- and risk-sensitive currencies. The New Zealand dollar, often viewed as a proxy for global growth expectations, tends to benefit when investors show a greater willingness to move away from defensive positioning. That dynamic was evident as equities maintained a generally positive bias, allowing NZD/USD to claw back some of its recent losses.

Monetary policy expectations at home also continue to provide an underlying cushion. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a restrictive policy stance, repeatedly signaling that interest rates may need to remain at current levels for an extended period if economic conditions evolve broadly in line with its projections. This guidance has helped anchor yield expectations and has limited speculation around an imminent easing cycle, particularly when compared with other major central banks that are already deep into rate-cutting discussions.

Nevertheless, enthusiasm for the New Zealand dollar remains tempered. Despite stronger-than-expected third-quarter GDP growth, market pricing suggests investors have become less convinced that the RBNZ will need to raise rates further. The subtle scaling back of rate-hike expectations has capped upside momentum, underscoring the market’s view that policy is likely near its peak rather than on the verge of renewed tightening. In this environment, positive domestic data may slow the pace of NZD declines, but it is unlikely on its own to trigger a sustained bullish trend.

Across the Pacific, the US dollar continues to trade on mixed footing. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is consolidating after a recent rebound, as investors weigh conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve. Some policymakers have stressed the importance of allowing time to assess the full impact of rate cuts already delivered, cautioning against moving too quickly. Others, however, have warned that insufficient easing could risk undermining economic momentum, particularly if growth shows signs of slowing.

This internal debate within the Fed has injected uncertainty into the near-term direction of the dollar, leaving it sensitive to incoming data and shifting market narratives. Compounding this uncertainty is the persistent influence of geopolitical risk, which continues to underpin the greenback through its safe-haven status. Ongoing tensions in global hotspots, coupled with broader concerns around international relations, have encouraged investors to retain a degree of caution, limiting the upside for risk-oriented currencies such as the New Zealand dollar.

Seasonal factors are also playing a role. With trading volumes thinning ahead of upcoming holiday periods, price action risks becoming more erratic, and short-term moves may lack conviction. In such conditions, rallies in NZD/USD are vulnerable to fading unless reinforced by a clear macro catalyst or a decisive shift in interest-rate expectations.

From a broader perspective, NZD/USD’s current recovery appears more corrective than transformational. The pair is managing to stabilize in the near term, but competing forces — namely, RBNZ policy support on one side and US safe-haven demand on the other — suggest the market remains locked in a range-bound struggle. Until clearer signals emerge from central banks or global risk sentiment, a sustained directional breakout looks premature.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, NZD/USD is displaying a constructive bullish continuation structure following a strong impulsive move higher earlier in the month. The pair previously established a sequence of higher highs, confirming trend strength, before entering a controlled pullback contained within a descending channel. This type of price action typically reflects profit-taking rather than a trend reversal, particularly when the broader market structure remains intact.

The recent breakout from the falling channel signals renewed buying interest and suggests the market may be transitioning from consolidation back into expansion. The formation of higher lows within the corrective phase points to accumulation, with buyers stepping in at progressively higher levels. As long as price holds above the channel breakout zone, the bullish bias remains valid, opening the door for a retest of prior highs and a push toward liquidity resting above the most recent swing high.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.57950

STOP LOSS: 0.57350

TAKE PROFIT: 0.5900

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

Japanese government bond prices continued to decline following the BOJ’s rate hike. If fiscal risks are not properly addressed, yen intervention is likely to be ineffective.

BUY USDJPY

EXP

TRADING

156.349

Entry Price

161.230

153.600

156.119 -0.908 -0.58%

0.0

Pips

Flat

153.600

Exit Price

156.349

Entry Price

161.230

Fundamentals

Japanese government bond prices extended their decline on Monday, pushing the 10-year bond yield up by 7.5 bps to 2.095%, the highest level since February 1999. The 2-year bond yield, which is sensitive to monetary policy expectations, rose by 3 bps to 1.12%, a record high since 1997.

The renewed sell-off in sovereign bonds was triggered by the BOJ’s rate hike last Friday, which put pressure on the yen.

Traders were disappointed that the BOJ did not provide clear guidance on when it might tighten policy again. Meanwhile, after warnings from Japan’s Finance Minister, Kaoru Katayama, and the top foreign exchange official, Atsushi Muraoka, about the recent currency weakness, the JPYUSD exchange rate briefly rose by 0.3% to 157.25.

However, if Japanese authorities attempt to support the yen through foreign exchange intervention, such efforts are likely to be ineffective unless the government also properly manages fiscal policy risks.

The Japanese government is expected to pass the budget for the fiscal year 2026 this Friday. Investors are concerned that the budget may include an unusually large scale of departmental spending. If this is the case, it could trigger a decline in Japanese government bond prices and further exacerbate yen depreciation pressures. The Ministry of Finance may then be forced to intervene in the market, but the success of such intervention is highly uncertain.

Fiscal Risk Dominant, Yen Intervention Fails_1

Technical Analysis

During the day, the trend for USDJPY is biased upward, with a target above 157.88. The previous upward momentum from 139.87 is attempting to continue. If it can effectively break through the key structural resistance at 158.85, it will be an important medium-term bullish signal. The next target is the high at 161.94.

On the other hand, as long as the support at 154.38 holds, the risk of a pullback remains. Therefore, the upside risk is still relatively high at present.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 156.30

Target Price: 161.23

Stop Loss: 153.60

Valid Until: January 7, 2026, 23:55:00

Support: 156.98/156.00/154.35

Resistance Levels: 157.92/158.88/159.93

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Technical Analysis

Summary:

GBP/USD climbed toward 1.3450 as steady UK growth offset BoE easing bets, with thin holiday trading and supportive technicals keeping the pound biased to the upside.

BUY GBPUSD

EXP

PENDING

1.34500

Entry Price

1.38000

1.34000

1.35090 +0.00482 +0.36%

Pips

PENDING

1.34000

Exit Price

1.34500

Entry Price

1.38000

The British pound advanced sharply against the US dollar during Monday’s North American session, climbing nearly 0.6% as fresh UK economic data reassured investors that the economy continues to expand steadily, even as markets price in further monetary easing from the Bank of England next year. The GBP/USD pair rose to around 1.3450, rebounding decisively from an intraday low near 1.3372, amid subdued holiday trading conditions ahead of the Christmas Eve break.

Thin liquidity amplified the move, but the underlying driver was renewed confidence in the UK’s growth outlook after official figures confirmed the economy expanded in line with expectations. Data released by the Office for National Statistics showed UK gross domestic product grew 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2025, while annual growth held steady at 1.3%, unchanged from the previous period. While modest, the figures helped reinforce the view that the UK economy has avoided a sharper slowdown, offering the pound some breathing room after weeks of pressure driven by soft inflation and dovish central bank rhetoric.

Sterling pushed above the psychologically important 1.3400 level shortly after the data, suggesting that traders were more focused on growth stability than on the prospect of additional rate cuts. That reaction came despite broad expectations that the Bank of England will continue easing policy into 2026. UK inflation data released last week showed further cooling in price pressures, prompting BoE Governor Andrew Bailey to join the increasingly dovish chorus on the Monetary Policy Committee and back a rate reduction.

Following Bailey’s comments, money markets adjusted expectations, pricing in roughly 37 basis points of additional easing by the Bank of England in 2026, according to interest-rate probability measures tracked by Capital Edge. Under normal circumstances, such expectations would weigh heavily on the currency. However, the pound’s resilience suggests that much of the dovish outlook is already priced in and that investors are now shifting attention to relative economic performance and transatlantic policy divergence.

Across the Atlantic, the US economic calendar offered little fresh direction, leaving currency markets sensitive to commentary from Federal Reserve officials. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack struck a hawkish tone, warning that November’s consumer price index may have understated true inflation due to data irregularities. Hammack also suggested that the neutral interest rate could be higher than commonly assumed, a view that reinforces the Fed’s cautious stance on the timing and pace of future easing.

In contrast, Fed Governor Stephen Miran offered a more balanced assessment, acknowledging irregularities in recent inflation data linked to the government shutdown but noting that incoming figures broadly align with his outlook on economic conditions. Miran added that while further policy rate reductions are likely at some point, the Fed remains data-dependent, leaving markets without a clear near-term signal.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has strengthened its near-term bullish bias. The pair reclaimed its 200-day simple moving average earlier this month and has since traded in a consolidative but constructive pattern. Momentum indicators have turned positive, supported by price action holding above key short-term averages. On Monday, the pair printed a fresh monthly high near 1.3457, reinforcing the view that buyers remain in control despite overbought conditions emerging on some oscillators.

If bullish momentum persists, a test of the 1.3500 psychological level appears increasingly likely before year-end. A sustained break above that threshold would expose the October 1 high near 1.3527, with a further extension toward the 1.3800 area possible in early January should risk sentiment remain supportive and US dollar demand soften.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3450

STOP LOSS: 1.3400

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3800

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites