Gold Technicals Flash Bearish as RSI Hits Oversold – Will $3,300 Hold?

Economic

Summary:

Gold prices hover just above the $3,300 threshold as traders digest strong U.S. jobs data, renewed Fed hawkishness, and rising global trade tensions.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3310.00

Entry Price

3250.00

3340.00

4214.99 +17.08 +0.41%

115.4

Pips

Profit

3250.00

3298.46

Exit Price

3310.00

Entry Price

3340.00

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading defensively at the start of the week, holding precariously above the $3,300 level as investors balance a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve expectations with looming trade and geopolitical developments. The yellow metal has come under renewed selling pressure following a firm U.S. jobs report and stronger Treasury yields, which are tempering hopes for near-term interest rate cuts from the Fed. At the time of writing, gold is fluctuating near $3,305 per ounce, edging closer to a key technical support zone amid broader market uncertainty.

The catalyst behind gold’s latest dip was last Thursday’s better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which showed the U.S. economy added more jobs than analysts had anticipated. This reinforced the narrative that the American labor market remains resilient despite higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation pressures. Consequently, traders have started to scale back bets on a July rate cut from the Federal Reserve, driving Treasury yields higher and bolstering the U.S. Dollar.

For gold, which yields no interest and typically moves inversely to real yields and the dollar, this recalibration has been a bearish development. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has climbed to near 4.40%, reflecting a market that is now beginning to price in a longer period of policy restraint by the Fed. As a result, gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement has weakened in the near term.

Still, the metal’s ability to hold above $3,300 amid rising yields suggests that downside momentum remains tentative — with traders likely awaiting further clarity from the Fed and upcoming economic data before committing to a more decisive directional bias.

While the macroeconomic backdrop is becoming less supportive for bullion, escalating geopolitical rhetoric may be providing a cushion beneath gold prices. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is widely seen as the Republican frontrunner for November’s election, issued fresh warnings over the weekend regarding tariffs on nations that support what he described as “anti-American BRICS policies.”

Although vague, these comments have re-ignited concerns over a renewed phase of U.S.-led protectionism, particularly if Trump returns to the White House. Global investors are already wary of how such policies could impact cross-border trade flows, commodities, and emerging market stability. For gold, a traditional haven in times of uncertainty, this presents a double-edged narrative — short-term downside from stronger dollar dynamics, but long-term upside risk if trade disruptions become more pronounced.

The market is also closely watching Wednesday’s looming tariff deadline — part of a scheduled review of trade restrictions under Section 301 — which could mark another flashpoint in U.S.-China relations or broader global trade policy. Any escalation could revive demand for safe-haven assets, including gold.

Monday also marked the return of U.S. market participants after the July 4th holiday, bringing a rebound in liquidity and trading volumes. However, the directional conviction in gold remains weak, with traders reluctant to place big bets ahead of key Federal Reserve speakers scheduled later in the week. Any fresh commentary on inflation or rate policy will likely dictate the next leg in gold’s trajectory.

As it stands, Fed officials have remained largely consistent in their message: inflation has cooled, but not enough to justify rate cuts just yet. This narrative continues to cap any sustained upside in gold, as real interest rates remain elevated. Until there is a tangible shift in the Fed's tone or a deterioration in U.S. data, bullion may struggle to regain its upward momentum.

Technical Analysis

Technically, gold remains under pressure on the short-term charts, having pulled back from recent highs around $3,330. Price action has slid toward the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle formation, with the $3,300 area acting as immediate support. A breakdown below this zone could expose gold to further downside toward $3,275 and potentially $3,250 — levels that coincide with previous consolidation zones and minor Fibonacci retracements.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3310

STOP LOSS: 3340

TAKE PROFIT: 3250

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Japan's real wages have recorded their steepest decline since 2023, exacerbating the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy predicament.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

198.351

Entry Price

204.140

196.000

206.929 -0.171 -0.08%

94.5

Pips

Profit

196.000

199.296

Exit Price

198.351

Entry Price

204.140

Fundamentals

GBPJPY extended gains on Monday, reaching 197.98. Disappointing Japanese wage data exerted downward pressure on the yen, dampening expectations for further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Nominal wages in Japan rose just 1.0% YoY in May, sharply missing the 2.4% consensus and marking the third consecutive month of deceleration. Real wages, reflecting purchasing power, fell 2.9%—the steepest decline in nearly two years and the fifth straight month of contraction.

A breakdown showed nominal wages grew 1.0%, below April's 2.0% and forecasts. While base salaries increased 2.0% and overtime pay rose 1.0%, special payments (mainly one-off bonuses) plunged 18.7% YoY, dragging overall wage growth. Nominal wages have now risen for 41 consecutive months, yet gains still lag inflation.

Officials warned the data may not fully reflect spring wage negotiations, particularly as many surveyed small firms lack unions and lag larger corporates in raising pay. Prolonged real wage compression could pressure consumer spending and complicate the BoJ's gradual policy normalization.

Market Watch: Official figures have yet to capture the full impact of this spring's record wage deals with unions. Smaller, non-unionized firms have been slower to implement hikes, delaying their effect on aggregate wage trends.

With wage growth faltering and inflation sticky, the BoJ's task grows tougher. Meanwhile, U.S.-Japan trade talks appear stalled, with Washington threatening higher tariffs on Japanese goods. Japan's economic outlook remains challenging. We still expect the BoJ to hike rates, but weak pay trends could weaken the case.

Soft Wages and Policy Constraints Deepen Yen's Plight—Bulls May Seize the Momentum_1

Technical Analysis

GBPJPY's intraday bias stays neutral-to-positive. A break below 196.28 would trigger further consolidation. However, as long as support at 193.99 holds, further upside is expected. A breach of 198.78 would target resistance at 199.79. Beyond that, gains could extend toward the 100% Fibonacci retracement of 180.00–199.79 at 204.14.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 197.61

Target Price: 204.14

Stop Loss: 196.00

Valid Until: July 22, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 197.60/197.09/196.70

Resistance: 198.12/198.78/199.79

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

The Euro faces a triple threat of negative factors in the short term. Furthermore, its technical indicators are currently suppressed by a downward trend line, suggesting a potential short-term downward correction.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17550

Entry Price

1.16400

1.18150

1.16632 +0.00206 +0.18%

40.2

Pips

Profit

1.16400

1.17148

Exit Price

1.17550

Entry Price

1.18150

Fundamentals

The current Euro faces a confluence of three bearish factors, constituting the core drivers for going short.

Firstly, the US-EU trade conflict has entered a critical showdown phase: July 9th marks the deadline for the US to impose tariffs on EU steel and aluminum (50%) and automobiles (25%). A breakdown in negotiations would directly impact manufacturing exports, which account for 14% of the Eurozone's GDP. Despite the EU signaling concessions (accepting a 10% general tariff but seeking exemptions for key industries), the US maintains a hardline stance, with market expectations for a deal falling below 40%. The US-EU trade divergence may cause the Eurozone's retail sales to decline to 1.2% in the last quarter. Against this backdrop, the EURUSD is undergoing a correction and is likely to continue its downward trend.

Secondly, the Eurozone's weak economic data continues to intensify: Germany's May retail sales fell 1.6% month-on-month (vs. an expected +0.5%), and consumer confidence plummeted to a crisis level of -20.3, reflecting the risk of a collapse in domestic demand.

Finally, the US dollar's short-term rebound momentum is strengthening: Although the US non-farm payrolls in June showed a less-than-ideal structure (with government employment accounting for 50%), the overall data supports a cooling of expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July. The rise in US Treasury yields has pushed the US dollar index above a key technical level, which may further depress the EURUSD.

Technical Analysis

As of today's European trading session, the EURUSD is trading at 1.1730 and maintaining a downward trend.

Bullish Momentum Has Temporarily Stalled, Potentially Signaling a Significant Correction_1

In the 1D timeframe, the EURUSD recently rose to the Fibonacci 0.618 extension level near 1.1810 before facing selling pressure and declining. With the high points of the candlestick chart consistently decreasing over the past five trading days, this indicates that bearish sentiment is dominating the market in the short term, and the exchange rate may undergo a more significant correction.

Bullish Momentum Has Temporarily Stalled, Potentially Signaling a Significant Correction_2

In the 4H timeframe, the recent price action of the EURUSD has established a clear downward trendline, forming resistance along the upper boundary of a descending channel. With successively lower highs and lows, the EURUSD is likely to maintain a bearish trajectory in the short term, with the initial target being a test of the 1.1620 support level.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.1755

Target Price: 1.1640

Stop Loss: 1.1815

Valid Until: July 21, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 1.1680, 1.1620

Resistance: 1.1790, 1.1810

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Commodity

Summary:

On July 7, 2025, spot gold (XAU/USD) edged lower to $3,311.09/oz, down ~0.7%, after U.S. announcements of trade deal progress and temporary tariff extensions eased safe‑haven demand....

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3305.06

Entry Price

3330.00

3295.00

4214.99 +17.08 +0.41%

133.3

Pips

Profit

3295.00

3318.39

Exit Price

3305.06

Entry Price

3330.00

Market Overview

Today, spot gold fell ~0.7% to $3,311.09/oz as U.S. President Trump noted progress on trade agreements and extended tariff deadlines to August 1, reducing immediate risk-driven

Despite this, concerns over inflation especially tied to the recent $3 trillion U.S. fiscal package and a slowdown in expected Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to support gold prices. HSBC recently raised its average gold forecast due to global uncertainty, projecting $3,215 for 2025 and $3,125 for 2026, with a broad trading range of $3,100–$3,600.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment shows caution: the easing of trade fears prompted a short-term selloff, but inflation worries and delayed rate cuts keep long-term sentiment neutral-to-bullish.

HSBC warns the rally is "toppy" with scope for a pullback before resuming upward momentum. Central bank buying remains strong, which provides a structural floor under prices.

Technical Analysis

Gold dips to $3,311 – Pullback offers potential BUY on M15 timeframe?_1

Bollinger Bands: M15 bands are narrowing, signaling low volatility and potential for a rebound from the lower band (~$3,300–3,305).

Ichimoku Cloud: Price sits just below the cloud; Tenkan below Kijun indicates short-term bearish pressure. The kumo is thin, implying limited resistance overhead.

Stochastic (5,3,3): Oscillator sits in the oversold zone (<20), showing a bullish divergence suggesting buyers could step in soon.

These conditions combined (oversold Stoch, narrowing Bollinger, thin cloud) point to a likely short-term rebound on M15 if supports hold around $3,300–3,305.

Trade Plan

Entry: BUY near $3,305 if M5/M15 candle confirms a bottom and Stoch divergence is seen.

Take Profit: $3,330–3,335, aligning with mid‑Bollinger band and short-term resistance.

Stop Loss: Place under $3,295 (~10 pips below entry) to limit risk if downward momentum resumes.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin is currently locked in a battle between bulls and bears. However, with the early formation of a triple top pattern on the technical charts, short-term bearish momentum is gradually strengthening.

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

112000.0

Entry Price

99000.0

118000.0

91605.3 +2050.5 +2.29%

6000.0

Pips

Loss

99000.0

118083.0

Exit Price

112000.0

Entry Price

118000.0

Fundamentals

Recent Bitcoin price action reflects a tug-of-war between policy expectations and capital flows.

Regarding the policy situation, Donald Trump's July 7th announcement on finalizing 30%-50% tariffs targeting Japan and the EU could escalate U.S. inflation pressures if implemented, potentially reigniting Bitcoin's "inflation hedge" narrative. Conversely, policy compromise may trigger a pullback as safe-haven demand fades. Meanwhile, the U.S. House's upcoming debate on crypto tax frameworks and Trump's campaign pledge to designate Bitcoin as a "strategic national reserve asset" injects long-term policy optimism.

Capital flows indicate different directions. Institutional demand remains bifurcated with MicroStrategy continuing to accumulate BTC, while Ethereum spot ETFs saw a 219.1 million dollar inflow to confirm the stable institutional allocation. On the other hand, a 14-year-old dormant address moved 20,000 BTC (2.2 billion dollars) to indicate tremendous selling pressure.

Judging from macro environments, the Fed meeting minutes affirmed no July rate cuts, though markets expect easing cycles to begin in September. Tariff hikes may accelerate inflation (U.S. prices already face 10% tariff pressure), potentially reviving Bitcoin's 2024-style "inflation hedge" logic.

Technical Analysis

Bulls vs Bears in Tug-of-War, Will the Triple Top Break?_1

Bitcoin shows brewing breakout momentum but faces weakening bullish energy in the daily chart. Key resistance clusters around 111,000−112,000, where three failed breakouts sketch a nascent triple top. Downside support tiers lie at 107,500 and 105,000, a breakdown here could open deep correction territory.

Suggested by indicators, the daily RSI hovers in a moderate bullish area, yet momentum weakens as prices rise. MACD histogram volume contracts consecutively with signal lines converging, signaling imminent volatility.

Notably, the current rally is primarily futures-driven (spot premiums keep declining). Such divergence rarely sustains trends and may instead trigger "fakeout reversal" liquidations.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 112000

Target price: 99000

Stop loss: 118000

Valid Until: July 21, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 107255/105100

Resistance: 110529/111963

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Euro hit its highest level against the Japanese Yen since July 2024 on Thursday, supported by strong U.S.

BUY EURJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

170.400

Entry Price

173.000

168.500

181.037 +0.164 +0.09%

132.2

Pips

Profit

168.500

171.722

Exit Price

170.400

Entry Price

173.000

The Euro advanced further against the Japanese Yen on Thursday, pushing the EUR/JPY pair to its highest level in nearly a year, as improving global risk appetite and solid macroeconomic data fueled investor confidence. The cross climbed past 170.40 during the U.S. trading session, as markets processed stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market figures, a stabilizing Eurozone economy, and signals from the European Central Bank (ECB) that it may pause rate cuts in the near term.

The fresh upside move highlights the growing divergence in monetary policy expectations between Europe and Japan. With the ECB showing signs of caution and Japan’s central bank still treading slowly on rate normalization, the Euro has found solid ground against the Yen — a currency that continues to struggle as risk appetite improves globally.

At the heart of Thursday’s rally was a stronger-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, beating forecasts for 110,000 and coming in just above May’s revised figure of 144,000. Though the headline number didn’t indicate explosive labor market strength, it was enough to ease concerns that the economy might be heading for a deeper slowdown.

The robust labor print helped lift risk appetite across global markets, prompting a rotation out of safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen and into risk-linked currencies, including the Euro. Equity markets traded higher and bond yields firmed, reducing demand for the Yen, which typically gains during periods of geopolitical tension or economic uncertainty.

Meanwhile, recent data out of the Eurozone offered more reasons for the Euro bulls to stay confident. The final reading of the region’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose slightly to 50.5 in June, up from 50 in May and just above the preliminary estimate. The broader Composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services, climbed to a three-month high of 50.6 from 50.2, signaling early signs of a mild economic recovery.

While the manufacturing sector remains a drag, the uptick in services output and sentiment bodes well for the region’s economic outlook. In this context, the ECB’s latest meeting minutes struck a tone of cautious optimism. While acknowledging that headline inflation had returned to the 2% target in June, policymakers cited ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Euro’s 14% appreciation in 2024 and rising trade frictions — particularly from U.S. tariff measures — as reasons to hold off on additional rate cuts in July.

Some Governing Council members voiced concerns that a stronger Euro, while helpful in taming imported inflation, could dent the bloc’s competitiveness and delay recovery in the manufacturing-heavy export sector. As such, the ECB appears to be shifting from aggressive easing toward a more data-dependent stance — a development that offers fundamental support to the Euro in the near term.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/JPY remains comfortably inside a well-established bullish channel, with price consolidating just under key resistance at 169.85 earlier in the session before breaking higher.

From a technical perspective, EUR/JPY continues to demonstrate robust bullish momentum. The pair remains well above its 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 169.22 and is currently tracking the upper band of its Bollinger channel — a sign that the rally is supported by strong demand rather than mere short covering.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 71.92, indicating overbought conditions, but not yet signaling an imminent reversal. Momentum remains clearly in favor of the bulls, with no significant resistance until the 171.09 level — the July 23, 2024 high. A clean break above that level would open the door for a potential rally toward the 172.00–173.00 zone, with the psychological 175.00 barrier a possible medium-term target.

Immediate support is located near the 9-day EMA at 169.22, followed by 167.80. A sustained move below these levels would weaken the bullish outlook, but at present, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 170.40

STOP LOSS: 168.50

TAKE PROFIT: 173.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The EUR/USD pair trades flat below 1.1800 on Thursday as market optimism over U.S.-Vietnam trade deals gives way to caution ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17603

Entry Price

1.20000

1.17000

1.16632 +0.00206 +0.18%

60.3

Pips

Loss

1.17000

1.16999

Exit Price

1.17603

Entry Price

1.20000

The euro was treading water against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, with EUR/USD hovering just below the 1.1800 mark in a subdued session shaped by growing caution and a shift in focus to upcoming U.S. employment data. The pair, which flirted with multi-year highs earlier in the week, has stalled amid fading risk appetite, despite modestly upbeat news from both sides of the Atlantic.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD remains practically unchanged on the day, trading near 1.1790, just off the psychological 1.1800 threshold. While bullish momentum remains intact on the broader trend, short-term sentiment has been tempered by renewed geopolitical uncertainty, fragile investor mood, and heightened anticipation ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report — released a day early due to the Independence Day holiday.

In Europe, June’s final services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reading was revised upward to 50.5 from an initial estimate of 50.0, signaling a return to marginal expansion territory after May’s contraction. Though the improvement is a welcome sign for the eurozone’s services sector, which accounts for over 70% of regional GDP, the market’s reaction was muted.

For the euro, the revision failed to provide meaningful support as traders remain more focused on global risk cues and the direction of U.S. monetary policy. The broader narrative around the European Central Bank (ECB) is also in flux, with policymakers walking a tightrope between weak economic growth and persistent inflation, leaving the door open to potential further easing later this year — especially if global conditions deteriorate.

On the U.S. side, political developments continue to muddy the waters. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, initially sparking optimism that more bilateral agreements could be signed ahead of the July 9 deadline tied to broader trade negotiations. The Dollar briefly weakened on the news, as traders bet that de-escalation of trade tensions might soften the Fed’s hawkish stance.

However, sentiment quickly shifted again as reports surfaced of backlash from other Asian countries over the complexity of the U.S. tariff framework. That skepticism, combined with Trump’s ongoing attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, injected volatility and uncertainty into markets.

In an unprecedented move, Trump called for Powell to "resign immediately," intensifying concerns about political interference in monetary policy. These remarks — part of a broader campaign of criticism — have added to speculation that the Fed’s independence may be under threat, potentially weakening the Dollar’s credibility as the world’s reserve currency.

The main market event this week is undoubtedly Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, released a day early due to the U.S. holiday. Following Wednesday’s surprisingly weak ADP employment print, the risk is skewed to the downside for the Dollar. A disappointing NFP number would likely reinforce expectations of a Fed rate cut in the coming months, potentially as early as the next FOMC meeting.

Given the fragile state of global risk sentiment and the Fed's recent messaging that rate policy will remain "data dependent," Friday's figures could act as a major pivot point for the greenback. A softer-than-expected reading would likely push EUR/USD decisively above 1.1800, with the next target seen near 1.2000 — a level that also coincides with key technical resistance and a psychological milestone.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD continues to trade within a well-defined short-term uptrend. The pair remains above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing the underlying bullish structure. Price action is following a clear impulsive wave pattern, with analysts suggesting that wave “3” of a larger bullish cycle is still unfolding.

While RSI indicators are showing signs of overbought conditions, suggesting potential for a pause or shallow correction, there is no immediate signal of trend reversal. The pair has been consolidating just beneath resistance, a behavior consistent with bullish continuation patterns.

The upward impulse is far from exhausted. I believe wave “3” at both the higher and lower degrees is in its final stages, and the zone around 1.2000 represents an attractive level where this move could culminate. This level not only marks a critical psychological barrier but could also trigger profit-taking and technical resistance. However, if breached, it would open the path for a much deeper rally into uncharted territory not seen since early 2018.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1760

STOP LOSS: 1.1700

TAKE PROFIT: 1.2000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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