Today, the Eurozone published its final inflation data for May. The Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by an annual rate of 3.2% in May, moving up from the 3.0% recorded in April and matching market forecasts. However, the core CPI, which leaves out volatile components like energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, delivered an upside surprise by climbing 2.6% year-over-year from the previous 2.2% print, coming in hotter than the 2.5% expected baseline. Alongside this inflation data, Eurozone industrial production grew by a minor 0.1% month-over-month in April, according to data published by Eurostat, landing below the 0.3% increase expected by the market. On a positive note, the figures for March were revised upward, showing a 0.4% gain compared to the 0.2% originally published a month ago. On a year-over-year basis, the indicator showed a growth rate of 0.3% after dropping by 2.8% in the previous month, a figure that was revised downward from the initially reported positive reading. Alongside industrial production, the Eurozone released its trade balance statistics, showing a deficit of one billion euros in April, which disappointed market expectations of a 7.8 billion surplus.

The data for March was also revised lower, with the surplus shrinking to 4.9 billion euros against the 7.8 billion previously published. In response to these conditions, ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks stated that the central bank still sees upside risks for inflation and remains prepared to act again if necessary. Similarly, ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel noted that policy conditions are still largely neutral and warned that second-round effects coming from energy costs cannot be excluded. Nagel also mentioned that the ECB keeps all options open for its upcoming July meeting.

In Switzerland, consumer price data disappointed the market. The Consumer Price Index grew by just 0.2% month-over-month in May, missing the 0.3% expected forecast, while the annual inflation rate remained stuck at 0.6%, landing well below the market consensus of 0.8%. For the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which has been trying to prevent an excessive appreciation of the franc in a low-inflation environment, these numbers should have helped lower the demand for the currency. However, exactly the opposite occurred. The persistent strength of the Swiss franc continues to be a main challenge for the SNB. With its benchmark interest rate set at 0% and inflation tracking near minimum levels, the institution has made it clear that it prefers to intervene in the foreign exchange market rather than return to negative interest rates.

The weak inflation data published last Thursday added weight to the arguments for a more flexible monetary policy ahead of the June meeting and even brought back the possibility of negative rates.

From a chart perspective, EUR/CHF has entered a downward corrective phase that is now beginning to show signs of fresh bullish interest as it approaches the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages, which are currently tracking at 0.9179 and 0.9163, respectively. Inside an established upward trend like the current one, this technical testing zone could offer clear opportunities to rejoin the broader trend, targeting near-term objectives at the local horizontal resistance ceiling of 0.9250—a milestone last visited by the price action on April 29.

A look at the oscillator section provides secondary cross-verification for this potential trend resumption. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped quickly to touch the 34 level, moving close to oversold parameters but still leaving a small amount of chart space before reaching the key horizontal support at 0.9177. If the price action manages to test this specific floor while pushing the RSI below the 30 boundary, it could establish the most favorable technical conditions to buy into the trend.

At the same time, the MACD indicator is showing a negative histogram that is systematically losing its downward depth, while its signal lines recently crossed just underneath the neutral zero line. Because of this positioning, a clean turnaround of the histogram into positive territory, alongside an upward crossover of the signal lines, would provide the necessary technical power to reactivate the upward path and attract fresh buying volume.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.9177

Target price: 0.9250

Stop loss: 0.9145

Validity: Jun 26, 2026 15:00:00