Pullbacks Present Opportunities for Bulls

Commodity

Summary:

Amidst the escalating China-U.S. tariff disputes, major global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, reinforcing the long-term bullish outlook for gold.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3324.92

Entry Price

3402.00

3290.00

4209.63 +11.72 +0.28%

349.2

Pips

Loss

3290.00

3289.90

Exit Price

3324.92

Entry Price

3402.00

Fundamentals

The recent escalation of the China-U.S. tariff disputes have reached a critical juncture, with the U.S. imposing a 245% tariff on Chinese imports and China retaliating with a 125% tariff. This has amplified the risk of global supply chain disruptions. Market participants are increasingly concerned that these tariff policies will exacerbate inflation and impede economic expansion. The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts a 0.2% contraction in global trade volume by 2025, thereby driving capital inflows into gold as a safe-haven asset.

Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's explicit acknowledgment that "tariffs push up prices" and that "U.S. economic growth is slowing" suggests a potential lowering of the threshold for interest rate cuts. This has elevated market expectations for a June rate cut, which further bolsters the upward trajectory of gold prices.

It is noteworthy that U.S. Treasury yields have continued their downward trend, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.31%. Concurrently, the U.S. Dollar Index has hit a three-year low of 98.77, indicating further downside potential and reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

In addition, major global central banks are consistently increasing their gold reserves. Recent data from the People's Bank of China indicates a fifth consecutive month of accumulation, reinforcing the long-term bullish outlook for gold. Financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and UBS have revised their price targets upwards to US$3,400-US$3,500, with some extreme scenarios projecting a rise to US$4,200.

Technical Analysis

Pullbacks Present Opportunities for Bulls_1

In the 1D timeframe, gold exhibits a robust, unidirectional uptrend, with the price currently breaching the 3,310.87 resistance level, thereby expanding the potential for further gains. The subsequent upward target is projected to test the 3,407.76 level.

Pullbacks Present Opportunities for Bulls_2

In the 4H timeframe, gold is currently consolidating following a surge, with recent candlestick patterns demonstrating a strong upward trajectory, supported by the MA10 and MA20.

In the short term, it is recommended to take the MA10 and MA20 in the 4H timeframe as support levels and go long on pullbacks to the MA10. If the price falls below this level, the MA20 should be considered as the subsequent support. However, a break below both SMAs could lead to a pullback towards the 3,242.82 support level. It is recommended to go long at the lows upon stabilization.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3313.00

Target Price: 3402.00

Stop Loss: 3290.00

Valid Until: May 1, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 3310.87, 3242.82

Resistance: 3357.72, 3407.78

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

A decisive break above these levels could open the door to a more sustained upside move, with 1.4048 as the next key resistance target.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.38614

Entry Price

1.40500

1.37600

1.38236 +0.00089 +0.06%

5.0

Pips

Profit

1.37600

1.38664

Exit Price

1.38614

Entry Price

1.40500

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has shifted its stance from “moderate” to a more cautious “wait-and-see” approach, as policymakers assess the potential economic impact of U.S. trade policies under former President Donald Trump. “We will proceed with caution and offer fewer forward-looking signals than usual until there is more clarity,” stated BoC Governor Tiff Macklem. He noted that recent data increasingly point to a “significant slowdown in both business investment and household spending,” largely due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding retaliatory tariffs initiated by the U.S. administration.

In the United States, manufacturing activity continued to expand in March, though momentum may be starting to fade amid persistent global trade tensions. According to data released by the Federal Reserve, factory output increased by 0.3% in March, following a revised 1.0% gain in February. The March figure met economists’ expectations, who had forecast a similar 0.3% rise.

Year-over-year, industrial production grew by 1.0% in March. The manufacturing sector, which accounts for around 10.2% of the U.S. economy, posted an annualized gain of 5.1% in Q1, recovering sharply after contracting by 1.5% in the previous quarter.

Elsewhere, the Empire State Manufacturing Index improved significantly in April, jumping 11.9 points to -8.1 from a previous reading of -20 in March. Although the index remained in negative territory, it outperformed expectations and posted its strongest reading in two months.

However, underlying concerns persist. Survey participants noted slight declines in new orders and shipments, while supply constraints worsened. Delivery times remained steady, and inventory levels continued to rise.

“After a steep drop last month, manufacturing activity contracted only modestly in April,” said Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “Prices paid and received surged at the fastest rate in more than two years. For the first time since 2022, firms voiced a clearly pessimistic outlook.”

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent worked to calm market nerves, assuring investors that the broader economy remains stable and far from any imminent crisis. He reiterated the administration’s commitment to pursuing “fair” trade agreements, which officials argue are critical to restoring fiscal balance and economic competitiveness. Buyers May Step In as USDCAD Tests Key Support Zone_1

Buyers May Step In as USDCAD Tests Key Support Zone_1

Technical Analysis

The USDCAD pair has once again retreated toward the 1.3852 level—a support zone that has acted as a springboard for upward movements in the past. This level could provide another opportunity for buyers to step in. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 31.49, approaching oversold conditions, suggesting that bearish momentum may be losing steam and a bullish reversal could be on the horizon.

Both the 100-period and 200-period moving averages are positioned at 1.3900 and 1.4038, respectively. A decisive break above these levels could open the door to a more sustained upside move, with 1.4048 as the next key resistance target.

On the other hand, if the support at 1.3852 fails to hold, the pair could extend its decline toward the 1.3700 region. As price action tightens, traders will be closely watching for confirmation in either direction.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3860

Target price: 1.4050

Stop loss: 1.3760

Validity: Apr 27, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices breached the US$3,300 psychological threshold on Wednesday, reaching a new peak since the onset of the U.S.-China trade war. Concurrently, escalating uncertainty has triggered a fresh wave of risk aversion, which continues to underpin gold prices.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3410.00

Entry Price

3110.00

3456.00

4209.63 +11.72 +0.28%

460.0

Pips

Loss

3110.00

3456.06

Exit Price

3410.00

Entry Price

3456.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices breached the US$3,300 level intraday for the first time, experiencing a US$70 surge. Year-to-date gains exceed 25%.

The deteriorating fundamentals, underscored by the latest tariff developments on Wednesday, which include escalating U.S. tariffs on China and China's decision to halt further Boeing deliveries, maintain a bullish outlook for gold, with warnings of severe negative impacts from escalating conflicts.

Furthermore, concerns that Trump's tariffs will impact the U.S. economy continue to fuel questions about American exceptionalism and the dollar's credibility as a reserve currency, potentially signaling the peak of the strong dollar era. Gold prices are poised to benefit as central banks seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar.

Institutional investors and market participants are pricing in at least three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, a monetary easing stance that is generally supportive of gold.

"As long as uncertainty persists, gold will continue to strengthen," stated Brian Lan, Managing Director of GoldSilver Central (a Singaporean trader).

ANZ believes that haven buying in gold has not yet entered an accelerated phase. ANZ has revised its year-end gold price forecast to US$3,600 per ounce and its six-month price prediction to US$3,500 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs analysts anticipate gold prices reaching US$3,700 per ounce by the end of this year and touching US$4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.

Be Cautious of a Pullback after the Surge_1

Technical Analysis

Gold prices established a new all-time high near US$3,317 earlier on Wednesday, sustaining a robust bullish trend. This recent surge, exceeding US$100 in just four days, follows rapid ascents from US$3,000 to US$3,100 and US$3,100 to US$3,200, each occurring within two days. Currently, the bulls maintain dominance.

Given the historical price action, each significant rally in gold has been followed by a period of profit-taking. Therefore, a short-term retracement is anticipated. Furthermore, a breach below US$3,288 could trigger a deeper correction, warranting caution.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3410

Target Price: 3110

Stop Loss: 3456

Valid Until: May 1, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3288, 3277, 3264

Resistance: 3329, 3350, 3378

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

A sustained bounce from the 142.00 region could trigger a move back toward this upper resistance zone.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

142.601

Entry Price

150.520

139.000

155.436 +0.091 +0.06%

37.1

Pips

Profit

139.000

142.972

Exit Price

142.601

Entry Price

150.520

U.S. manufacturing output rose modestly in March, though signs point to a potential slowdown ahead as global trade tensions escalate. The tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump have triggered a prolonged trade conflict with China, adding pressure on the industrial sector. According to data released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, factory output increased by 0.3% in March, following an upwardly revised gain of 1.0% in February. This result was in line with market expectations surveyed by Reuters.

On a year-over-year basis, factory production grew by 1.0% in March. Manufacturing, which accounts for roughly 10.2% of the U.S. economy, expanded at an annualized rate of 5.1% during the first quarter—bouncing back strongly from a 1.5% contraction in the final quarter of last year.

In a separate release, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index saw a notable improvement in April, climbing 11.9 points to -8.1 from March’s -20. While still in contraction territory, the index exceeded expectations of a softer recovery to -14.5 and marked the strongest reading in two months.

Despite the rebound, the overall tone remains cautious. Survey respondents reported mild declines in new orders and shipments. Delivery times were largely unchanged, but supply conditions continued to worsen. Meanwhile, inventories saw further increases.

“After last month’s sharp downturn, activity declined only slightly in April,” commented Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. “Input and output prices surged at the fastest pace in over two years, and for the first time since 2022, businesses expressed a noticeably negative outlook.”

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassured markets, dismissing the notion of any looming financial emergency. He stated that the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound and emphasized the administration’s commitment to pursuing “fair” trade arrangements. These policies, according to officials, are essential to rebalancing the U.S. budget and stabilizing long-term fiscal outlooks.

In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed growing concern over the economic impact of U.S. trade policies. In an interview with Sankei newspaper, Ueda acknowledged that the evolving situation increasingly mirrors the BoJ’s downside risk scenarios, which are already weighing on business and consumer sentiment. He hinted that a policy response may be warranted if conditions continue to deteriorate. Bullish Momentum May Resume From Triple Bottom Zone_1

Bullish Momentum May Resume From Triple Bottom Zone_1

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY has pulled back toward the 142.13 area, a key support level that has already acted twice as a springboard for bullish momentum. With the latest local low established at 139.64, the structure may be forming what resembles a triple bottom pattern—a technical formation that often precedes a reversal to the upside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 31, approaching oversold territory. This could suggest that bearish pressure is waning, potentially opening the door for a bullish correction.

Both the 100-period and 200-period moving averages are clustered near the 151.90 and 150.68 levels, respectively. These zones also coincide with the 0.618 and 0.50 Fibonacci retracement levels, creating a confluence of resistance that could act as a medium-term target if the current support holds. A sustained bounce from the 142.00 region could trigger a move back toward this upper resistance zone.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 142.55

Target price: 150.52

Stop loss: 139.00

Validity: Apr 27, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The bearish "head and shoulders top" pattern has been confirmed. A breakdown below the ascending triangle's support by the bulls could trigger a decline in Ethereum's price towards recent lows.

SELL ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

1589.25

Entry Price

1239.00

1700.00

3158.69 +131.73 +4.35%

1107.5

Pips

Loss

1239.00

1701.40

Exit Price

1589.25

Entry Price

1700.00

Fundamentals

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies remained essentially flat on Wednesday, hovering around US$2.69 trillion. Trading volume over a 24-hour period decreased by 12.8%, reaching US$77 billion.

Bitcoin experienced a marginal overnight decline of 0.05%, trading at US$84,159. Ethereum saw a drop of over 2% in the last 24 hours, with its price approximately at US$1,585.

Year-to-date, inflows into the cryptocurrency market have diminished to US$165 million, while assets under management have fallen to US$129.9 billion, as the specter of potential tariffs continues to weigh on the market.

Bitcoin-based products registered outflows of US$751 million, followed by Ethereum-based products with outflows of US$38 million.

The assets under management for Ethereum-based products total US$7.8 billion. The assets under management for multi-asset investment portfolios stands at US$5.9 billion. Furthermore, Solana-based products record the assets under management of US$1.1 billion.

Moreover, ETH investors who had staked tokens in staking protocols are beginning to show signs of exhaustion after liquidating their staked assets. Over the past five days, the total value of staked Ethereum has decreased by over 120,000 ETH, equivalent to approximately US$192 million.

The reduction in the total amount of staked tokens indicates that investors are seeking to reallocate assets. If these unstaked tokens enter the open market, it could exert further downward pressure on ETH.

The outflow of staked funds aligns with the rapid increase in Ethereum exchange supply over the past two weeks. Since the beginning of April, the ETH supply on exchanges has increased by nearly 400,000 ETH, leading to a brief dip in price below US$1,500 last week.

The increase in cryptocurrency exchange supply suggests rising selling pressure and could trigger a corresponding price reaction.

Bearish "Head and Shoulders Top" Pattern Has Been Confirmed_1

Technical Analysis

Over the past four hours, Ethereum's price has tested the neckline of a "head and shoulders top" pattern, currently attempting to maintain gains above US$1,600. A breach of the US$1,662 level would allow bulls to test resistance near US$1,688, reinforced by a key descending trendline. A sustained break above this resistance could see bulls targeting the US$1,800 psychological level.

Conversely, the neckline of the bearish "head and shoulders top" pattern has been triggered, with current momentum appearing weak; the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic indicators have largely remained above neutral levels since Friday; however, a recent break below the neutral level could accelerate bearish momentum.

Failure to break US$1,662 on any subsequent rally could see a decline towards the critical support at US$1,522. A break below this support would force bulls to defend the key level of US$1,412.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1600, 1630

Target Price: 1239

Stop Loss: 1700

Valid Until: May 1, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1540, 1472, 1385

Resistance: 1662, 1670, 1690

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The USD/CHF currency pair extended its decline in Wednesday’s Asian session, weighed down by a weaker US Dollar amid growing recession fears and dovish Federal Reserve expectations.

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.81000

Entry Price

0.78000

0.83000

0.80405 -0.00050 -0.06%

46.8

Pips

Profit

0.78000

0.80532

Exit Price

0.81000

Entry Price

0.83000

The US Dollar is back under pressure, and the USD/CHF currency pair is bearing the brunt of it. After a modest recovery earlier this week, the pair came under fresh selling pressure during Wednesday’s Asian session, sliding back toward the mid-0.8100 just a hair above Friday’s ten-year low. With the bearish momentum showing no signs of abating, the current macroeconomic landscape paints a bleak short-term outlook for the greenback while reinforcing the long-term resilience of the Swiss Franc.

At the core of the latest decline is a deteriorating outlook for the US economy. Market sentiment is increasingly shifting toward a belief that the Federal Reserve may be compelled to cut interest rates more aggressively than previously anticipated. Investors now see the possibility of up to 100 basis points in rate cuts by the end of 2025—a seismic shift from earlier projections. This dovish re-pricing has sapped demand for the Dollar, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering near its lowest levels since April 2022.

Recession fears are clearly mounting. Recent soft patches in US economic data, ranging from jobless claims to housing market indicators, have sparked concerns that the world’s largest economy may be heading toward a slowdown. The labor market, while still historically tight, has shown signs of fatigue. Combined with tightening credit conditions and slowing consumer spending, the probability of a technical recession is now squarely on the radar of both policymakers and investors alike.

The political landscape hasn’t helped either. The brief optimism following former President Donald Trump’s announcement to pause broad reciprocal tariffs for 90 days quickly fizzled out. Instead of easing nerves, the announcement injected a new layer of ambiguity into an already fragile geopolitical setting. Trump’s erratic stance on trade—especially toward China—has only added fuel to the fire, rattling markets and exacerbating uncertainty over the direction of global trade policy.

Against this backdrop, investors are doing what they’ve always done in times of turbulence: flocking to safe-haven assets. Chief among them is the Swiss Franc, which continues to attract inflows as a stable alternative. Switzerland’s long-standing reputation for political neutrality, sound fiscal management, and robust banking system makes the CHF a perennial safe-haven play, particularly in risk-off environments. This renewed global appetite for safety has underpinned the Franc and further weighed on USD/CHF.

From a broader perspective, the pair’s sustained downtrend, which began after reaching a year-to-date high in January, appears to be firmly intact. Barring a dramatic reversal in macroeconomic conditions or a hawkish pivot from the Fed, the path of least resistance remains clearly tilted to the downside.

Looking ahead, we will be laser-focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks, which could shed light on the central bank’s policy path. Any signs that the Fed is leaning more dovishly than the market already expects could reinforce the current bearish narrative for the Dollar.

Also on deck is the latest US retail sales report, which will offer fresh insight into the health of the American consumer. A disappointing print could further validate fears of a slowdown, adding to the pressure on the USD and accelerating the decline in USD/CHF.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the USD/CHF’s intraday price action reflects the dominance of a well-entrenched bearish trend. The pair is tracking alongside a descending minor trend line on the short-term chart, and recent price action is beginning to diverge negatively from the RSI, which has pulled back from overbought levels. This suggests that downside momentum is building and that the pair may be gearing up for another leg lower.

Critically, the 0.8100 level is acting as near-term support, but any decisive break below this threshold could open the floodgates toward the 0.7800 region—a level not seen since 2011. Such a move would underscore the severity of the USD’s fundamental weakness and the growing strength of the CHF in this risk-averse environment.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8100

STOP LOSS: 0.8300

TAKE PROFIT: 0.7800

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The EUR/GBP cross edged higher to around 0.8565 in early European trading on Wednesday, buoyed by a weaker Pound following softer-than-expected UK inflation data.

BUY EURGBP

Close Time

CLOSED

0.85800

Entry Price

0.87400

0.84800

0.87475 +0.00159 +0.18%

37.6

Pips

Profit

0.84800

0.86176

Exit Price

0.85800

Entry Price

0.87400

The Euro gained ground against the British Pound on Wednesday, with the EUR/GBP pair trading near 0.8565 during the early European session. The move was fueled by disappointing inflation data out of the UK, which suggested the Bank of England (BoE) may be inching closer to an interest rate cut of its own, while the European Central Bank (ECB) remains on a steady path toward monetary easing.

According to data released by the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% year-on-year in March, easing from February’s 2.8% and coming in softer than the market’s 2.7% expectation. More notably, the monthly CPI figure climbed just 0.3%, a deceleration from February’s 0.4% increase and below the consensus forecast of another 0.4% print.

Core CPI—which strips out volatile food and energy prices—also remained stable at 3.4% YoY, matching expectations but down slightly from the previous 3.5%. These figures further reinforce the narrative that UK inflation pressures are gradually waning, reducing the urgency for the BoE to maintain its high-interest-rate stance.

The British Pound responded swiftly and negatively to the data, as traders began to price in a growing likelihood that the BoE could join other major central banks in easing monetary policy later this year. While the Bank has adopted a cautious tone in recent months, Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues have repeatedly emphasized the importance of incoming data. With CPI now trending closer to the 2% target, calls for a rate cut around mid-year are becoming louder.

From a market perspective, these inflation numbers increase the probability of a rate cut by the BoE in the summer. While wage growth remains a complicating factor, the inflation story is clearly moving in the right direction for doves on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Meanwhile, across the Channel, the ECB is widely anticipated to reduce its deposit rate by 25 basis points at its Thursday meeting, bringing the benchmark down to 2.25%. This would mark the third rate cut in the current cycle, reinforcing the bank’s pivot toward monetary easing amid slowing economic momentum in the Eurozone.

Expectations for the ECB move are already fully priced in, according to euro area swaps markets. A further dovish signal could materialize if Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data due later on Wednesday aligns with forecasts or comes in weaker.

Rabobank's senior macro strategist, Bas van Geffen, recently highlighted short-term uncertainties such as global trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions, including former U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs, as key variables in the ECB's decision-making calculus. These headwinds, along with softening inflation in the bloc, make a rate cut not just likely, but necessary from a policy perspective.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the EUR/GBP pair appears to be stabilizing after retreating from levels above 0.8700 earlier this month. The hourly chart shows the pair in a consolidation phase, recovering modestly after testing support near 0.8520.

Currently, the cross is trading just below the 50-hour simple moving average, with a minor uptick observed after reclaiming the 0.8540 handle. The next resistance level looms at around 0.8570, where a bearish trendline and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.8738 to 0.8518 downswing intersect.

A decisive break above 0.8570 could open the door for a more meaningful recovery, with the next key resistance at 0.8630—a level coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Should bulls manage to push through that ceiling, upside momentum could extend toward 0.8685 and potentially as high as 0.8740.

Conversely, failure to hold above immediate support at 0.8520 may lead to renewed downside pressure. A break below 0.8500 would invalidate the short-term bullish setup, exposing the cross to further losses toward the 0.8360 zone, a level last seen in early February.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURGBP

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8580

STOP LOSS: 0.8480

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8740

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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