Gold prices slipped on Wednesday, dragged lower by a broadly stronger U.S. dollar as traders cut short-dollar positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The precious metal retreated from the record $3,700 per ounce mark, with sellers testing—but not yet breaching—the critical $3,660 support region.

The move highlights the nervous positioning across markets in the hours before the Fed meeting. While investors overwhelmingly expect a 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate into the 4.0%–4.25% range, there is growing concern that the central bank may deliver a less dovish signal than many traders are hoping for.

Markets have grown used to the Fed gradually softening its stance following a stream of weaker economic data, particularly in the labor market. A series of disappointing employment reports have heightened expectations for multiple cuts over the coming quarters. Futures markets now price in at least a quarter-point cut at each meeting for the remainder of 2025, and some traders are even projecting additional easing into early 2026.

That aggressive dovish pricing risks a sharp unwinding. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has a history of carefully managing expectations, and he is unlikely to endorse such a rapid easing path given that inflationary pressures remain above target. Any indication that the central bank is not prepared to match market bets could lift the dollar further, send yields higher, and weigh heavily on gold in the short term.

This is why the $3,660 zone has become such a pivotal battleground for traders. Gold’s decline over recent sessions has been corrective rather than outright bearish, but the failure to reclaim $3,690 resistance—a zone just shy of its all-time high—has raised questions about how much near-term upside is left without fresh catalysts.

On the charts, gold has broken below a minor intraday bullish trend line, extending its correctional losses and placing short-term pressure on momentum. However, the structure of the decline still appears orderly, with traders watching whether the metal can form a rising low around current levels.

Momentum signals also suggest selling may be stretched. Relative strength indicators have fallen into oversold territory when compared to recent price action, hinting at the potential for a positive divergence. This could represent early signals of a recovery attempt, particularly as prices converge near the 50-day EMA—a level that often provides dynamic support in trending markets.

The immediate focus remains the $3,660 trendline support, which has so far contained the downside. A sustained hold above this level would give buyers confidence to attempt another push toward $3,690, where resistance from prior highs and psychological barriers converge. A break above $3,690 would open the door for a retest of $3,700 and possibly new all-time highs if the Fed surprises dovishly.

Conversely, a clean break below $3,660 would invalidate the near-term bullish structure, potentially triggering a deeper pullback toward $3,630 or even $3,600 in the days ahead.

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3670

STOP LOSS: 3640

TAKE PROFIT: 3750

The UK labor market is exhibiting signs of deceleration, with slowing wage growth potentially alleviating inflationary pressures for the Bank of England. According to official data released by the Office for National Statistics on September 16, the UK employment sector shows further signs of slowdown: August saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline. Additionally, the overall average weekly earnings growth rate, including bonuses, decreased from 5.0% to 4.8%, while private sector base wage growth slightly declined from 4.8% to 4.7%. Although wage increases remain above the 3% level consistent with the Bank of England's 2% inflation target, the deceleration trend indicates some easing of inflationary pressures. In this context, market consensus anticipates that the Bank of England will maintain current interest rates at the upcoming monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The weakening of labor market momentum and the slowdown in wage growth provide the central bank with additional time to assess the ongoing impact of previous tightening measures on inflation. Despite inflation remaining above target, signs of domestic demand moderation have increased, reducing the urgency for further policy tightening. Investors expect the Bank of England to hold rates steady at least until the end of the first quarter of next year, pending clearer economic data on the medium-term trajectory of the labor market and inflation. Meanwhile, monetary policy on the other side of the Atlantic is diverging. Market consensus predicts that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut at its policy meeting concluding early Thursday, as recent U.S. inflation trends and some economic indicators weaken, providing the Fed with room for policy adjustment. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as expected, it may lead to a certain degree of dollar weakness, prompting capital flows toward non-dollar assets. This could even alleviate some of the passive depreciation pressure on the pound and create a more accommodative external environment for subsequent policy adjustments by the Bank of England.

Following signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, market participants anticipate the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently assign nearly a 100% probability to a 25 basis point rate reduction at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. A minority of analysts even speculate that the Fed may implement a more substantial easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a policy statement and hold a press conference on Wednesday. Market participants will closely monitor the FOMC press conference and the economic projections summary, known as the "dot plot," for insights into the trajectory of U.S. interest rates. Corpay Chief Market Strategist Karl Schamotta noted, "As investors prepare for a dovish tone in Wednesday's voting record, the 'dot plot' economic projections, and the press conference, the dollar is trading broadly with a cautious tone."

In the 1W timeframe, the EURUSD price is oscillating upward along the EMA12, with resistance levels at the upper Bollinger Band and the ascending trendline. The RSI is at 62, indicating strong bullish momentum, and the MACD line and signal line are approaching a golden cross. If a golden cross occurs, the price is likely to break above 1.379, with a strong breakout potentially pushing it toward 1.40. Conversely, a weaker breakout may see a retracement back to around 1.32. In the M15 timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are contracting downward, with the SMAs diverging downward. The RSI is at 42, and the MACD line and signal line are below the zero-axis, reflecting a predominantly bearish market sentiment. Support levels are identified at the EMA200 and key psychological level at 1.362 and 1.36. The trading strategy is initially going short, followed by going long, emphasizing a buy-the-dip approach.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3575

Target Price: 1.4

Stop Loss: 1.32

Support: 1.34, 1.337, 1.32

Resistance: 1.37, 1.38, 1.4

Gold is still dominated by bulls at elevated levels. The market continues to bid prices higher under the triple impetus of (i) rate-cut expectations, (ii) a softening U.S. dollar, and (iii) sustained purchases by ETFs and central banks. During the week the gold set a fresh all-time high (≈ USD 3,703 oz intraday yesterday). Although profit-taking surfaced today, spot quotes are holding above USD 3,670 oz. Asset allocators are now embedding an earlier-than-signalled Fed easing cycle, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and providing a macro tail-wind.

Flow data confirm that both physical offtake and passive allocations remain supportive. Global physical-backed gold ETFs have registered consecutive monthly inflows, with holdings in several major funds at or near record levels, indicating continued accumulation by institutions and official-sector buyers. This "inflow + inelastic demand" structure amplifies price moves when headlines emerge.

Concurrently, open interest in futures and implied volatility in options have expanded around key strikes, signalling rising leverage and a higher risk of short-covering squeezes.

On the daily chart, gold broke above the 3,668 resistance this Monday, opening a mid-stage upside extension toward 4,000. It subsequently cleared the 3,700 handle yesterday. However, as profit-taking intensified, selling pressure mounted. After a brief breach of 3,700, gold entered a corrective pullback with volatile, downward-biased trading.

At the moment, the daily chart remains robust, yet callback risk warrants vigilance. Immediate resistance is located near 3,700. A decisive break on expanding volume, followed by a successful retest, would target 3,800 and beyond. Primary support sits in the 3,668–3,656 band. An intraday breach would open room for a deeper retracement.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3670.00

Target Price: 3790.00

Stop Loss: 3620.00

Valid Until: October 1, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 3668.00/3656.00

Resistance: 3703.19/3800.00

With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a total of 25 basis points, all eyes are focused on the economic forecast summary, the so-called chart, and the remarks of Chairman Jerome Powell to determine whether the US central bank will cut interest rates more than twice this year. Influenced by weak August labor data and persistently high inflation, calls for the Fed to adopt aggressive easing measures are growing, sparking concerns about stagflation in the US economy. According to Refinitiv's interest rate probabilities, the market is anticipating a total of 67.9 basis points in rate cuts by the end of this year. Influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy statement, the price of non-yielding gold is expected to experience significant volatility. If the Fed confirms recent dovish expectations, specifically three interest rate cuts by the end of the year, the price of gold is likely to reach new all-time highs. Conversely, if the chart indicates Fed officials are maintaining the prospect of two interest rate cuts, or if Powell's remarks sound less dovish, the dollar could gain new momentum, triggering a new round of correction in gold. In summary, gold's fate hinges on the Fed's decision and its future interest rate trajectory. Meanwhile, traders will continue to liquidate long positions in gold, though bargain-hunting may emerge at lower levels.

The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of the year amid intense political pressure and economic uncertainty. The 25-basis-point reduction sent the dollar tumbling to multi-month lows against major currencies, with the dollar index dipping below 97.00. While the Fed cited labor market weakness as justification for easing policy, persistent inflation concerns and tariff-driven price pressures create a complex backdrop for future policy decisions. Market expectations point to further rate cuts by year-end, suggesting the dollar's strength remains constrained. While the Fed pledged to adjust policy based on data, this leaves room for a potential shift in monetary policy direction.

From the 4-hour chart, gold broke the upper band of the Bollinger Bands and hit a new all-time high before pulling back under pressure. It is currently finding support near the EMA12, forming a consolidation pattern. The MACD line and signal line have formed a death cross signal, and the rising momentum bar is gradually weakening, indicating a top divergence signal. The RSI reading is 58, suggesting the market remains bullish but is entering a wait-and-see sentiment. If gold can consistently hold above the EMA12, it is likely to surge toward 3700 or even 4000. If it fails to hold, it may decline to the EMA50 or even the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with prices at 3632 and 3613, respectively. From the weekly chart, the price broke above the upper boundary of the triangular consolidation pattern and has been rising strongly along the upper Bollinger Band. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, the moving averages are diverging higher, and the MACD has formed a golden cross pattern. The RSI reading of 73 has entered the overbought zone, suggesting a potential pullback at any time. Overall, the price may retest the upper edge of the triangle before breaking upward again. However, as long as it does not fall below the EMA12, the upward trend remains intact. For the strategy, it is recommended to go long at lows.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 3635

Target price: 3900

Stop loss: 3550

Support: 3600, 3550, 3400

Resistance: 3700, 3800, 3900

The latest U.S. retail sales report signaled stronger-than-expected consumer spending in August, easing recession fears and suggesting that household demand remains resilient. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in August, beating market expectations of a 0.2% increase. July’s figure was also revised higher to 0.6% from the initially reported 0.5%, underscoring a firm consumption momentum heading into the third quarter.

In a narrow 48-47 vote, Stephen Miran, a senior economic adviser to President Trump, was confirmed to the Federal Reserve Board on Monday. This week’s Fed meeting, which began on Tuesday, will be Miran’s first as a member of the Board. Fed Governor Lisa Cook will also attend after the U.S. Court of Appeals denied the White House’s request to block her participation.

Markets are widely anticipating a rate cut in September, followed by two additional cuts before year-end. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming press conference, as well as the updated “dot plot,” which outlines policymakers’ projections for future interest rates.

President Trump has ramped up pressure on the Fed ahead of Wednesday’s decision, urging Powell on Truth Social to deliver a larger-than-expected rate cut. Trump argued that a bolder move is long overdue and would give a strong boost to the housing market.

Last week, U.S. CPI inflation ticked higher again in August, with headline CPI climbing to 2.9% year-over-year while core CPI held steady at 3.1%. The recent relief from falling gasoline prices has been offset by renewed price pressures in housing and food, while prices for consumer goods such as electronics and clothing are also edging higher as Trump-era tariffs gradually filter through to consumers.

Meanwhile, Canada’s Ivey PMI dropped sharply from a robust 55.8 in July to 50.1 in August, hovering just above the stagnation threshold and signaling a pronounced slowdown in economic activity. This deterioration has heightened concerns about the durability of Canada’s economy and raised the likelihood of a dovish shift from the Bank of Canada (BoC).

Canada’s August CPI figures came in broadly in line with expectations, which has further cleared the way for a potential BoC rate cut. Markets now widely expect the BoC to lower its policy rate to 2.5% in an effort to support a slowing economy and a rapidly softening labor market, while likely signaling that further easing could follow later this year.

USDCAD has staged a steep pullback and is now approaching support near 1.3723. This zone has provided bullish reactions on two separate occasions, establishing it as a key local support. If the pair can hold this area decisively once again, it could serve as the foundation for a new bullish leg targeting 1.3830—the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. A clear break above that level could open the door for a move toward the descending trendline that has capped price action in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, the RSI on the 4-hour chart has dropped to 22, well into oversold territory, which could attract dip buyers looking to enter long positions at discounted levels. The 100- and 200-period moving averages are clustered around 1.3805 and 1.3804, and this close alignment often signals range-bound price behavior. This setup suggests two possible paths: price may rebound and reestablish its position within the range, or it could break decisively below support, paving the way for a deeper correction.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3720

Target price: 1.3830

Stop loss: 1.3670

Validity: Sep 26, 2025 15:00:00

BitMine, the Ethereum-focused treasury firm chaired by Tom Lee, reported on Monday that its combined cryptocurrency and cash reserves have reached an impressive $10.8 billion. The company, already recognized as the largest institutional holder of Ethereum worldwide, announced another major crypto purchase as it advances toward its ambitious goal of controlling 5% of the circulating ETH supply.

According to several reports, BitMine disclosed in its latest update that it had purchased approximately 82,233 ETH (worth around $370 million) since September 8, in line with transactions noted by analysts last week. With this acquisition, the firm has increased its holdings to 2,151,676 ETH valued at roughly $9.75 billion, alongside 192 BTC (around $22.1 million), a $214 million stake in the treasury firm WLD Eightco, and $569 million in uncommitted cash reserves.

Meanwhile, PayPal has introduced a new feature called PayPal Links, designed to simplify peer-to-peer payments, including cryptocurrency transfers. Announced in a press release on Monday, PayPal Links is initially available in the U.S. and is expected to roll out to the U.K., Italy, and other countries later in September.

The company is positioning the tool as a simpler alternative to services like Zelle or CashApp, and as a complement to Venmo. “It lets your money follow your conversations,” said Diego Scotti, General Manager of the Consumer Group. A key point highlighted by ZDNET is that PayPal plans to integrate cryptocurrency support directly into the Links feature.

Soon, users in the U.S. will be able to quickly send Bitcoin, Ethereum, PYUSD, and other cryptocurrencies to PayPal, Venmo, and other compatible digital wallets. PayPal will also allow senders to choose the currency when creating a link, making it easier to transfer funds to recipients in over 110 countries. This combination of crypto compatibility and global reach aims to expand payment options for both traditional users and those operating with digital assets.

In other developments, the Ethereum Foundation announced on Tuesday a major security audit contest with a prize pool of up to $2 million to ensure the safety of its upcoming “Fusaka” network upgrade, scheduled for release on the mainnet by the end of 2025.

The contest, which began on September 15 and runs until October 13, is organized by the security platform Sherlock with additional support from Gnosis ($100,000) and Lido ($25,000). The goal is to invite security experts to thoroughly review the Fusaka code to detect any potential bugs or vulnerabilities before they can impact the network. Valid findings will be compiled into an official report.

To encourage participation, the Ethereum Foundation will award a 2x points multiplier for valid bugs reported during the first week and a 1.5x multiplier for those found in the second week, adding extra incentive to contribute early.

ETH has pulled back toward the 4,423 area, where the 100- and 200-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart are currently converging around 4,422 and 4,444. These levels have previously provided strong bullish reactions, and recent candles have shown upward momentum from this zone. This area also aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting it could mark the end of the current downside correction and serve as a springboard for another leg higher toward the next resistance at 4,864.

Meanwhile, the RSI has dipped to 38, approaching oversold territory without fully entering it. Importantly, price is also nearing its ascending trendline. If this area holds and sellers fail to break it decisively to the downside, the broader bullish structure could remain intact, allowing upside momentum to persist. However, a clear breakdown below this confluence zone could trigger a deeper correction in ETH amid the heightened volatility expected in the days ahead.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 4494

Target price: 4860

Stop loss: 4100

Validity: Sep 26, 2025 15:00:00