Potential Rebound in EUR/AUD as Downside Momentum Fades

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

EURAUD has found solid support near the 1.7700 level, where several attempts to break lower have been rejected, suggesting this zone could serve as a launchpad for a new bullish leg.

BUY EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.77800

Entry Price

1.84200

1.75000

1.76556 +0.00119 +0.07%

280.0

Pips

Loss

1.75000

1.74958

Exit Price

1.77800

Entry Price

1.84200

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is set to release two key inflation indicators: the quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q1 2025, and the monthly CPI for March, which tracks annual price pressures over the past 12 months. The quarterly report includes the RBA’s preferred inflation measure, the trimmed mean CPI, closely monitored by policymakers.

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.10%, following a 25 basis point rate cut in February—the first since the tightening cycle began in 2022.

Markets anticipate that the ABS will report a 2.3% year-on-year increase in March’s monthly CPI, slightly lower than the 2.4% recorded in February. Meanwhile, the quarterly CPI is projected to rise by 0.8% QoQ and 2.2% YoY in Q1 2025. The RBA’s trimmed mean CPI is forecast to climb by 2.9% YoY—easing from the 3.2% growth seen in the previous quarter—and by 0.7% QoQ, which would mark a modest acceleration from the 0.5% increase in Q4.

Despite some persistent inflationary pressures, these figures remain within the RBA’s target range of 2% to 3%, reinforcing the possibility of further rate cuts in the near term should economic momentum continue to moderate.

On the growth side, Australia’s economy showed signs of resilience, with GDP expanding by 0.6% in the final quarter of 2025. This outpaced market expectations of 0.5% and marked the strongest quarterly performance since December 2022. The annual growth rate reached 1.3%, exceeding the consensus forecast of 1.2%. While this helped to ease recession fears, underlying vulnerabilities suggest that the path ahead remains uncertain.

In Europe, ECB policymakers are increasingly signaling the need for additional monetary easing. On Monday, Finnish central bank governor and ECB policymaker Olli Rehn expressed concerns about inflation in the eurozone remaining below the central bank’s 2% target amid escalating trade tensions linked to Trump-era tariffs. Rehn emphasized the importance of keeping an open mind about future policy actions, even suggesting that rate cuts below the neutral level should not be ruled out.

Separately, François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France and ECB member, reiterated the need for more interest rate reductions, citing confidence that inflation will return to target and warning about the risks that protectionist trade policies pose to the euro area’s economic outlook.

Market participants will be closely watching the upcoming preliminary GDP figures for the eurozone, along with the April Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), scheduled for release on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. These reports could provide fresh insights into the ECB's next moves. Potential Rebound in EUR/AUD as Downside Momentum Fades_1

Potential Rebound in EUR/AUD as Downside Momentum Fades_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/AUD has found solid support near the 1.7700 level, where several attempts to break lower have been rejected, suggesting this zone could serve as a launchpad for a new bullish leg. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 32 at the recent local low, placing it near oversold territory. While price has remained in consolidation, the RSI has continued to trend lower—an early sign that bearish momentum may be fading, potentially inviting buying interest from this area.

On the four-hour chart, the 100- and 200-period moving averages are positioned at 1.7930 and 1.7603, respectively. The 200-period moving average is now converging with the support zone, and a sustained move above it could be critical for validating a bullish breakout. However, if sellers manage to push price decisively below the 200-period MA, the next key support lies at 1.7366—a level that could attract renewed downside momentum.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.7780

Target price: 1.8420

Stop loss: 1.7500

Validity: May 08, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Stocks

Summary:

Following a robust performance last week, the U.S. stock market exhibited a lack of directional conviction during Monday's trading session. Major indices fluctuated near the flatline throughout the day. By the close of trading on Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was seen oscillating around the 40,000-point level, reflecting the market's complex sentiment regarding macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy, and trade tensions.

SELL US30

Close Time

CLOSED

40650.00

Entry Price

37213.00

42273.00

48553.00 -18.90 -0.04%

16230.0

Pips

Loss

37213.00

42273.97

Exit Price

40650.00

Entry Price

42273.00

Fundamentals

At the close of trading on Monday, major U.S. stock indices exhibited mixed performance. The Nasdaq Composite declined by 36.81 points, representing a 0.2% decrease, to close at 17,346. The S&P 500 edged up by 1.47 points, a marginal increase of less than one-tenth of a percent, reaching 5,526. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 133.49 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 40,246.

Overall trading activity on Wall Street was characterized by volatility, as investors appeared hesitant to make significant moves, anticipating key earnings releases and crucial economic data scheduled for publication in the coming days.

Four of the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants—Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft—are slated to report their quarterly earnings this week.

Later this week, the monthly employment report from the U.S. Department of Labor and the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of consumer price inflation are also expected to be closely scrutinized.

Investors are closely monitoring developments in trade, with Treasury Secretary Besant stating on ABC News' "This Week" that he believes the government is close to inking agreements on "17 or 18 significant trade deals" in principle.

Bessent noted, "While finalizing trade agreements may take months, agreement in principle, coupled with the good faith and adherence to parameters by our trading partners, can prevent tariffs from reverting to their highest levels."

MARKET WATCH: The recent rebound in U.S. stocks has prompted institutional investors to tactically adopt a bullish stance on the U.S. market. Positive catalysts, including earnings from major tech companies and announcements regarding trade agreements, are expected to continue bolstering the market following the recent downturn.

However, this rebound momentum may wane within weeks, as the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs begin to weigh on the economy in the coming months.

Overall, there remains considerable room for a de-escalation trade in the context of trade tensions. This brief rebound does not signify that all market risks have been eliminated.

Tactical Buying Momentum Quickly Dissipated_1

Technical Analysis

In the 1D timeframe, it indicates that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has found secondary support near the 37,852 level, which, if sustained, would reinforce a bullish outlook.

Key resistance levels are concentrated at 40,500, 40,700, and 41,000. A breach of the latter could facilitate a further advance towards the 50-day SMA at 42,273 and the 200-day SMA at 43,300.

The Relative Strength Index is hovering above the neutral zone, with no immediate overbought signals. However, a sustained break above 50 would likely confirm the next phase of upward momentum. Despite these technical indicators, fundamental headwinds are anticipated to reverse the current positive sentiment in the near term.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 40650

Target Price: 37213

Stop Loss: 42273

Valid Until: May 14, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 39600, 38913, 37852

Resistance: 40941, 41494, 42273

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

During the European trading session, gold prices continue to experience downward pressure, yet they remain above $3,300 amid mixed fundamentals. Market consensus suggests an expectation of increased volatility in the gold market moving forward.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3336.00

Entry Price

3167.00

3385.00

4305.14 +5.75 +0.13%

490.0

Pips

Loss

3167.00

3385.00

Exit Price

3336.00

Entry Price

3385.00

Fundamentals

The gold price reversed its downward trajectory on Monday, driven by a resurgence of buying activity, which suggests that the downside risk for gold is significantly constrained. Investors, particularly proprietary traders and macro funds, were notably under-allocated during the previous rally in gold prices; therefore, the selling pressure has been limited, a factor reflected in the price increase.

Analyzing the recent gold market dynamics, a divergence is evident in fund managers' positioning, reflecting the complexity of gold's pricing logic. This divergence is characterized by the retreat from "short-term risks" versus the steadfast commitment to "long-term narratives."

Meanwhile, a market consensus is emerging. With the anticipated implementation of tariffs, the risk premium associated with gold may experience a short-term decline. Furthermore, the profit-taking activities of investors who previously purchased gold stocks and gold funds at elevated prices are expected to introduce volatility into the market, potentially intensifying fluctuations in gold prices.

The fluctuations stem from several key factors. First, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Last year, the market largely anticipated the Fed's shift from interest rate hikes to a rate-cutting cycle. However, the pace of rate cuts this year may be subject to considerable divergence in market expectations.

Second, the trajectory of the global economy. This year, the economic and inflationary uncertainties could be amplified by Trump's various reform policies.

Third, geopolitical issues remain a concern. While there was little easing of geopolitical tensions last year, the potential for renewed instability this year introduces further uncertainty. These three factors are likely to intensify the volatility in gold prices.

Buy Low and Sell High amid Fluctuations_1

Technical Analysis

In the 4H timeframe, gold is currently establishing the fifth structure within the initial downward trend, targeting the US$3,260 level. A breach below this threshold appears poised to facilitate further downside movement.

Furthermore, a broad oscillation could prompt a retracement towards the US$3,365 level. Upon the completion of this retracement, a subsequent decline may commence, with a target of US$3,260. From a momentum perspective, the MACD indicator corroborates this trajectory, with its signal line positioned below the 0-axis and exhibiting no signs of a reversal.

On the downside, the vicinity of US$3,286 offers a buffer. A further decline would test the critical support at US$3,260. Ultimately, US$3,236 may potentially impede further decline towards the US$3,167 level in the short term.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3336

Target Price: 3167

Stop Loss: 3385

Valid Until: May 14, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3286, 3260, 3246

Resistance: 3340, 3371, 3385

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

EUR/JPY rebounds above 162.40 as risk appetite returns amid easing US-China trade tensions and dovish ECB commentary, while the Bank of Japan holds a cautious stance ahead of its policy decision.

BUY EURJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

162.400

Entry Price

164.900

161.000

182.906 -0.023 -0.01%

109.2

Pips

Profit

161.000

163.492

Exit Price

162.400

Entry Price

164.900

The EUR/JPY currency cross climbed on Tuesday, recovering from over 0.50% losses in the previous session, as improving global risk sentiment and diverging monetary policy expectations between Europe and Japan fuel renewed interest in the pair. As of the European session, EUR/JPY is trading around 162.40, bolstered by a sharp drop in demand for the Japanese Yen, which has historically served as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty.

This shift in sentiment comes on the heels of optimistic developments surrounding US-China trade relations. In a move that lifted market confidence, former US President Donald Trump voiced support for easing tariffs on Chinese imports, a gesture met with reciprocal action from Beijing, which announced exemptions on select US goods previously subjected to punitive duties. Although still tentative, this signals a thawing in the long-standing trade standoff between the world’s two largest economies and has injected a measure of calm into global markets.

The Japanese Yen’s weakness underscores a broader market transition away from safe-haven assets. Investors are rotating capital into risk-sensitive currencies and equities, reflective of growing hopes that trade tensions may de-escalate in the near term. The Yen, typically favored during times of geopolitical and economic stress, is seeing diminished demand as traders pivot toward higher-yielding alternatives.

Meanwhile, attention is turning to the Bank of Japan’s upcoming monetary policy meeting scheduled for Thursday. While most analysts expect the BoJ to hold interest rates steady amid lingering concerns over Japan’s fragile economic outlook, the recent uptick in inflation has introduced an element of uncertainty. Should inflationary pressures persist, the BoJ may find itself reconsidering its ultra-loose stance a move that could eventually support the Yen, though such a pivot appears unlikely in the immediate term.

Moreover, speculation is growing that a swift trade pact between the US and Japan should one materialize could embolden Japanese policymakers to entertain the idea of policy normalization. Such a move would represent a notable departure from the BoJ’s traditionally cautious tone and set it on a different trajectory than the Federal Reserve, which is increasingly expected to tilt dovish as global growth moderates.

On the other side of the currency cross, the Euro is grappling with its own set of challenges. The European Central Bank appears to be firmly committed to an accommodative stance, as reinforced by recent remarks from ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn. Speaking on Monday, Rehn suggested that the central bank may need to push interest rates below the so-called neutral level to sustain the Eurozone’s faltering recovery.

His comments come amid a backdrop of persistent economic malaise in Europe. Earlier this month, the ECB slashed rates for the seventh time this year, a clear signal that policymakers remain concerned about the region’s vulnerability to external shocks, including ongoing geopolitical tensions and weakening global demand.

Market expectations for further rate cuts have intensified sharply in response. According to LSEG data, traders are now pricing in a 75% probability of another ECB rate cut by June up significantly from just 60% a few weeks earlier. This dovish tilt has added downward pressure on the Euro, potentially capping the upside for EUR/JPY despite broader risk-on flows.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the EUR/JPY pair found a temporary floor near 161.90, just above the 55-day moving average. This level has emerged as a crucial support zone following Monday’s sell-off, which briefly pulled the pair below the 163.25 resistance line a level that has consistently served as a barrier to upside momentum in recent weeks.

The ability of the pair to stabilize above 161.90 suggests that bullish momentum may be reasserting itself. Analysts now anticipate a renewed push toward breaching the 163.25 resistance level. Should this breakout materialize, the path could open toward the next upside targets at 164.20 and potentially 164.90, provided market sentiment remains constructive.

The expected trading range for the session is seen between 161.85 and 163.25, with a general bias favoring the bulls. A confirmed break above 163.25 would reinforce the positive technical structure and signal the resumption of the broader uptrend.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 162.40

STOP LOSS: 161.00

TAKE PROFIT: 164.90

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

WTI remains under pressure as US-China trade frictions, looming supply increases from OPEC+, and progress in Iran nuclear talks dampen investor appetite. Technical setup signals potential for further downside.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

60.800

Entry Price

55.000

64.000

57.395 +0.162 +0.28%

108.3

Pips

Profit

55.000

59.717

Exit Price

60.800

Entry Price

64.000

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil continues to face significant headwinds, with prices hovering just above a one-and-a-half-week low during Tuesday’s Asian session. Currently trading in a tight range near $61.75 per barrel, WTI has struggled to attract buyers amid escalating global concerns. Mounting uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade war, an expected increase in output from the OPEC+ alliance, and signs of progress in the Iran nuclear deal have all combined to apply broad-based pressure on the commodity.

Market participants are increasingly cautious, with oil bulls notably absent despite a broadly weaker US dollar. The combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds has cast a shadow over oil’s near-term outlook, with sentiment remaining fragile as investors brace for a potential breakdown below key technical support levels.

At the core of the current bearish sentiment is the persistent uncertainty in US-China trade negotiations. While sporadic statements from both sides hint at potential progress, the lack of a definitive resolution continues to rattle markets. The two economic giants are deeply entrenched in a tit-for-tat tariff war that has already weakened global manufacturing activity and raised fears of a broader economic slowdown. For crude oil, which thrives on robust industrial demand and international trade, the implications are profound.

The threat of demand destruction is real. As the world’s two largest economies engage in prolonged economic sparring, the ripple effects are evident across energy markets. Investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a global recession a scenario that would severely curb fuel consumption across industries, transportation, and logistics.

Adding to the demand-side gloom is a re-emergence of supply-side risks. Several members of the OPEC+ alliance are reportedly pushing for a faster pace of production hikes for a second consecutive month in June. The group, which includes both OPEC and its allies led by Russia, had earlier committed to gradually unwind the record output cuts instituted during the pandemic. However, the recent calls to accelerate the process signal growing internal pressure to reclaim market share even at the cost of lower prices.

This shift in tone from OPEC+ coincides with rising optimism around a possible revival of the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. If the deal materializes, the lifting of US sanctions could pave the way for the return of up to 1 million barrels per day of Iranian crude to global markets. Such an influx, in a market already battling demand-side anxieties, would further tilt the balance toward oversupply.

Combined, these factors paint a troubling picture for crude bulls: while demand expectations are being downgraded, supply forecasts are being revised upwarda classic recipe for lower prices.

Ordinarily, a weaker US dollar would provide some relief to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. However, even the broadly bearish sentiment surrounding the greenback has failed to lift crude prices. This decoupling signals just how pervasive the negative oil sentiment has become—investors are focusing more on fundamental oversupply and demand destruction risks than on currency tailwinds.

The USD's weakness stems from increasing market bets that the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle, or potentially even pivoting in the medium term. Still, without a corresponding improvement in risk appetite or macroeconomic indicators, oil markets remain vulnerable to further downside.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, WTI crude is showing signs of further deterioration. Prices are currently testing an overlap resistance near $62.04 a level that previously served as support but now acts as a ceiling. A failure to break above this threshold could trigger renewed selling pressure.

We are eyeing a potential downside extension toward $55.00, which aligns with a swing-low support zone and coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level an area that often attracts buying interest in oversold conditions. However, a clean break below this zone could open the door to deeper declines, especially if macro conditions continue to deteriorate.

Brent crude, WTI’s international counterpart, is also exhibiting technical weakness. A double bottom pattern formed during a recent bullish correction has now failed to deliver upside momentum, with prices sinking below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50). The breach reinforces the bearish scenario and suggests that further downside may be imminent unless a fundamental catalyst shifts the narrative.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 60.80

STOP LOSS: 64.00

TAKE PROFIT: 55.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

The current market for gold is characterized by a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, although several factors continue to support a bullish outlook.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3313.42

Entry Price

3525.00

3250.00

4305.14 +5.75 +0.13%

634.2

Pips

Loss

3250.00

3245.68

Exit Price

3313.42

Entry Price

3525.00

Fundamentals

The current gold market is at a critical juncture, characterized by a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Fundamental factors are intertwined with short-term correction pressures and long-term structural support. Although geopolitical risks have somewhat subsided, the potential for underlying conflicts continues to inject a risk-aversion premium into gold prices. The Russia-Ukraine situation, against the backdrop of a 72-hour temporary ceasefire declared by Putin during the Victory Day celebrations, appears relatively stable. However, the intensity of military confrontations between the two sides has not diminished, and increased battlefield engagement suggests that the implementation of a ceasefire agreement remains uncertain. The Middle East situation also exhibits a "cooling and heating" pattern. While the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks may resume on May 3, Iran's strategy of prior consultation with Europe indicates the complexity of the negotiation process. Furthermore, the fluctuating progress of the hostage agreement between Israel and Hamas suggests that geopolitical "black swan" risks have not been entirely eliminated.

Furthermore, the interplay of trade policies has emerged as a novel variable impacting market dynamics. The Trump administration, on one hand, has signaled a firm stance with potential tariff adjustments, while simultaneously, through Treasury Secretary Bessent, has offered expectations of a preliminary trade agreement within the coming weeks. This policy oscillation has amplified market concerns regarding the stability of global supply chains.

In addition, it is noteworthy that market speculation suggests a partial waiver of tariffs on U.S. goods by China. Although this news provided temporary relief, the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on emerging markets such as India, coupled with political pressure from German Chancellor-designate Merz to eliminate all tariffs, indicates that the specter of protectionism persists. Consequently, the value of gold as a hedge against policy risks continues to be emphasized.

Technical Analysis

A Short-term Tug-of-War Is Expected, with Mid-term Bullish Outlook_1

In the 1D timeframe, despite the recent deep correction from the historical high of 3500 to 3260, a decline exceeding US$200, the overall trend for gold remains bullish. The alignment of the SMAs further corroborates a bullish outlook for gold's mid-to-long-term trajectory.

A Short-term Tug-of-War Is Expected, with Mid-term Bullish Outlook_2

In the 4H timeframe, gold has tested the 3260 support level three times during the previous correction, without a definitive breach, indicating a robust short-term support level at this juncture.

Currently, gold is exhibiting a range-bound fluctuation between 3260 and 3370 in the short term. On the upside, a decisive breach of the 3370 resistance level would likely initiate further upward movement, with the initial target being a retest of the historical high at 3500. Conversely, a breach below the 3260 support level could trigger a downward movement, potentially leading to a test of the 3240 support level, or even a decline to 3160.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3315.00

Target Price: 3525.00

Stop Loss: 3250.00

Valid Until: May 1, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 3305.07, 3260.00

Resistance: 3370.00, 3500.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

These moving averages have repeatedly acted as a dynamic resistance zone, reinforcing downward momentum whenever the price approaches them.

SELL EURCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.93840

Entry Price

0.92600

0.94600

0.93403 -0.00039 -0.04%

29.6

Pips

Profit

0.92600

0.93544

Exit Price

0.93840

Entry Price

0.94600

Concerns about inflation appear to have largely faded for now, and tomorrow’s release of the ECB’s Survey of Inflation Expectations at the one- and three-year horizons may further ease market nerves. Consensus anticipates a decline in both measures. However, the European Central Bank might also be growing uneasy with the euro’s strength. The trade-weighted nominal euro index has reached record highs, appreciating by about 4% year-over-year. In a world where global demand is fragmenting and shrinking, a strong currency is hardly ideal for an export-driven economy.

Markets are currently pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the ECB’s next policy meeting on June 5, with a total of approximately 65 basis points of easing expected by the end of the year.

This week, the preliminary release of the Eurozone CPI, scheduled for Friday, is the main economic highlight. Meanwhile, the ECB speakers’ calendar is quite full. Recent comments from Governing Council members, including Knot and Villeroy, have been notably dovish, pointing toward disinflationary forces gaining momentum.

François Villeroy de Galhau, ECB policymaker and governor of the Banque de France, said on Monday that the central bank "still has room for rate cuts in Europe." He also emphasized that although the region is navigating through a period of significant economic uncertainty, there is no evidence of renewed inflationary pressures, nor does he anticipate a recession in France or the broader euro area. He added that U.S. protectionist policies, such as those promoted by Trump, seem to be failing.

Separately, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that while a 25-basis-point move is possible, it should not always be seen as the default. He refrained from committing to a specific path for interest rates. In addition, the ECB is reportedly considering adjustments to its monetary policy framework to allow more flexible responses to price shocks amid an increasingly volatile global environment. This topic will be discussed during an informal retreat in Portugal on May 6–7.

Last Thursday, ECB policymaker and Governor of the Bank of Finland, Olli Rehn, also highlighted downside risks to inflation, suggesting that current conditions could lead to medium-term inflation projections falling below the ECB’s 2% target.

Meanwhile, the Swiss franc’s recent strength against the euro has triggered speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) might step in to intervene in the FX market or even reconsider its stance on negative interest rates. The sharp appreciation of the franc has fueled deflationary pressures in Switzerland, raising the prospect that the SNB may revisit the idea of reintroducing negative rates. However, the central bank is proceeding more cautiously now, mindful of avoiding political backlash, particularly from Washington. Bearish Setups Emerging Near Major Moving Averages_1

Bearish Setups Emerging Near Major Moving Averages_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/CHF staged an upward move after reaching a local low of 0.9224 on April 10, climbing until it encountered resistance near the 100- and 200-period moving averages, located at 0.9469 and 0.9416, respectively. These moving averages have repeatedly acted as a dynamic resistance zone, reinforcing downward momentum whenever the price approaches them. Adding to the confluence, the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels also align closely with the moving averages. If EUR/CHF fails to break through these barriers to the upside, it could trigger a fresh bearish wave targeting the 0.9259 area.

The RSI recently peaked near 60, not yet in overbought territory, but suggesting that the latest rally has been quite vigorous. The current price area around 0.9369 also marks a critical support zone. A strong break below this level could open the door to another leg lower.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.9384

Target price: 0.9260

Stop loss: 0.9460

Validity: May 08, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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