OPEC+ Production Increase, a "Nuclear Bomb" Breaks through the $60 Barrier, Triple Iron Tops Restrict Rebound

Commodity

Summary:

OPEC+ will increase production in July, and the market supply pressure will continue to rise. Meanwhile, the demand side has been hit hard by both tariffs and the industrial sector, with the demand for oil plummeting.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

63.039

Entry Price

51.500

64.800

59.191 -0.618 -1.03%

176.1

Pips

Loss

51.500

64.801

Exit Price

63.039

Entry Price

64.800

Fundamentals

Recently, the policy shift of OPEC+ has triggered a structural transformation in the crude oil market. At the latest meeting, OPEC+ announced that it would increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in July, marking Saudi Arabia's clear shift to the "market share priority" strategy. In contrast, the previous proposal by Russia to suspend production increases was directly rejected. Although the implementation rate of the first two rounds of production increases was less than 20%, the idle production capacity of about 800,000 barrels per day of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will be released this time. In addition, combined with the capacity cheating of countries such as Kazakhstan, Citibank expects the actual increase in July to be 386,000 barrels per day. This has led to an expansion of the global crude oil supply surplus to 2.2 million barrels per day. Citibank warns that if OPEC+ maintains the current path, WTI may fall to $45 by the end of the year.

More critically, the market's expectation of continued production increases in August has risen to 65%. Morgan Stanley pointed out that there are almost no signs of a slowdown in the production increase rhythm, while Goldman Sachs, although believing that August may be a "policy inflection point", admits that the risk of continued production increases still exists.

In addition, the demand side is facing a double blow of "tariffs + industry". The Trump administration has doubled the steel tariff to 50%, directly pushing up manufacturing costs. US factory orders in May have hit the largest decline since 2020, and the manufacturing PMI has shrunk for four consecutive months to 48.5, with the refinery profit compression severely curbing the demand for crude oil processing. At the same time, the demand engine in Asia has clearly stalled: China's gasoline and diesel sales in April plummeted by 7% and 15% month-on-month respectively, and the port crude oil turnover has stagnated. Moreover, India has launched industrial power rationing due to extreme heat, resulting in a sharp drop in industrial oil demand, and the Asian crude oil premium has fallen to a three-year low.

Technical Analysis

OPEC+ Production Increase, a "Nuclear Bomb" Breaks through the $60 Barrier, Triple Iron Tops Restrict Rebound _1

The daily chart suggests that WTI is running in a textbook-style downward channel. At present, there are triple pressures above the current price: $63.13(MA60), $64.01 (the high on May 21st), and $64.30 (the weekly neckline). These three positions form a pressure resonance, adding restrictions to WTI in the short term.

At present, if the price closes below the MA60 today, it will further increase the possibility of a decline. The first target of the decline will be the support level of $55.00. If this level is breached, WTI may depreciate to $50.00.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 63.00

Target price: 51.50

Stop loss: 64.80

Valid Until: June 18, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 59.39/55.00

Resistance: 63.13/64.01

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

This level aligns with a key resistance zone that has historically acted as a turning point in price action.

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.82470

Entry Price

0.81930

0.82700

0.80548 +0.00093 +0.12%

54.0

Pips

Profit

0.81930

Exit Price

0.82470

Entry Price

0.82700

The latest inflation data from Switzerland revealed a slight year-over-year decline in consumer prices for May, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling by 0.1%, compared to a flat reading in April, as reported by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. The result matched market expectations, reinforcing ongoing concerns over subdued inflation dynamics in the region.

On a monthly basis, CPI edged up by 0.1% in May, in line with forecasts, following a stagnant reading the previous month. The report attributed this modest increase to several factors, including rising prices for housing rents and international package holidays. Additionally, fresh fruits and vegetables saw price gains. However, these upward pressures were partially offset by declines in air transportation, supplemental lodging services, and heating oil.

Investors continue to monitor the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) policy outlook closely, with strong market expectations pointing to a potential rate cut to zero at the June policy meeting. The risk of deflation remains a significant concern, especially given that headline inflation remained flat on a yearly basis in April, while core inflation declined to 0.6% from 0.9%. Such a low inflation environment gives the SNB more leeway to pursue accommodative measures.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated a cautious tone aligned with broader Federal Reserve messaging. While he acknowledged that U.S. economic indicators remain relatively solid, he emphasized the uncertainty created by President Trump’s increasingly aggressive tariff policies. Goolsbee noted that the Fed is beginning to account for potential economic consequences stemming from sweeping trade restrictions.

Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook offered a similarly wary perspective, underscoring that, despite current economic stability, trade-related risks continue to pose a threat to long-term growth.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for May added to these concerns, as the headline figure slipped slightly to 48.5 from April’s 48.7—marking the third consecutive month of contraction. While some sub-indices showed mild improvements, including New Orders at 47.6 (up from 47.2) and Employment at 46.8 (up from 46.5), the Import Index dropped sharply to 39.9, highlighting the impact of weaker trade flows and tariff-driven headwinds.

Market focus now shifts to upcoming U.S. labor data, starting with Tuesday’s JOLTS report, which is expected to show around 7.1 million job openings in April—just under the 7.19 million figure from March. These results will set the tone for Wednesday’s ADP employment numbers and Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report. Strong labor figures would be necessary to counteract concerns raised by weakening manufacturing performance and help the dollar maintain upward traction. Bearish Momentum Could Regain Control for a Pullback_1

Bearish Momentum Could Regain Control for a Pullback_1

Technical Analisys

USD/CHF has recently staged a short-term rally, climbing from the previous session’s local low of 0.8156 to a high of 0.8247. This level aligns with a key resistance zone that has historically acted as a turning point in price action. Given its past significance, this area could once again attract bearish pressure if it continues to act as a barrier to further gains.

The RSI indicator has surged to 75, a level last observed during the May 28 high near 0.8348. This move creates a notable divergence between price and momentum: while price action has not reached previous highs, the RSI has climbed more aggressively. This divergence could be an early signal of waning bullish momentum and a potential trend reversal, with downside targets potentially extending toward the lower boundary of the current trend channel.

However, should USD/CHF break convincingly above the resistance zone, it would invalidate the divergence signal and open the door for further upside. Until then, the risk of a corrective pullback remains on the table, especially as technical exhaustion begins to emerge.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.8247

Target price: 0.8193

Stop loss: 0.8270

Validity: Jun 13, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This shift from resistance to support is often viewed as a bullish signal, and it could provide a platform for buyers to re-enter the market.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.13752

Entry Price

1.14200

1.13350

1.16508 +0.00082 +0.07%

44.8

Pips

Profit

1.13350

1.14200

Exit Price

1.13752

Entry Price

1.14200

Inflationary pressures in the Eurozone appear to be cooling faster than expected, potentially granting the European Central Bank (ECB) more room to maneuver on the monetary front. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed no monthly change in headline inflation, while the annual rate fell below 2% for the first time in eight months, down from April’s 2.2%.

Core CPI also remained flat month-over-month, with the yearly figure easing to 2.3%—a sharper-than-anticipated decline from the previous 2.7%, and better than the forecasted dip to 2.5%. These figures will likely be welcomed by the ECB ahead of Thursday’s policy meeting, where a widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut would mark the eighth consecutive reduction.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to maintain a neutral tone, reiterating that future policy decisions will remain data-dependent. However, with market participants already pricing in at least one more cut by year-end, expectations of continued easing could weigh on the euro in the near term.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee echoed a cautious stance aligned with broader Federal Reserve sentiment. While he acknowledged current economic conditions look relatively healthy, he flagged tariff-related uncertainty stemming from President Trump’s aggressive trade stance as a potential headwind. Goolsbee noted that the Fed is beginning to factor in possible economic fallout from broad-based tariff increases.

Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook struck a similar tone, emphasizing that although the U.S. economy appears stable for now, trade policies remain one of the most significant threats to sustained economic health.

Tuesday’s ISM manufacturing data reinforced concerns over softening momentum, with the headline index dipping slightly to 48.5 in May, from 48.7 in April. This marked the third consecutive month of contraction. Sub-indexes were generally weak but offered some silver linings: New Orders rose slightly to 47.6 from 47.2, while the Employment index ticked up to 46.8 from 46.5. However, the Import index plunged more than seven points to 39.9, signaling ongoing strain on trade flows, exacerbated by tariff headwinds and recent soft trade data.

All eyes now turn to U.S. labor market releases, starting with JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, expected to show a relatively stable demand with 7.1 million openings in April—only slightly below March’s 7.19 million. These numbers will frame Wednesday’s ADP employment data and Friday’s pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls report. Strong job figures will be needed to offset concerns raised by weakening manufacturing activity and support the dollar’s recovery. Support and Divergence Could Unlock a Bullish Turn_1

Support and Divergence Could Unlock a Bullish Turn_1

Technical Analisys

EUR/USD has pulled back from its recent local high at 1.1454, retreating toward the 100- and 200-period moving averages. The pair found support around 1.1363—a level that previously acted as resistance. This shift from resistance to support is often viewed as a bullish signal, and it could provide a platform for buyers to re-enter the market, potentially fueling a fresh upward leg.

From a momentum perspective, the RSI has declined to 33, approaching oversold territory. More notably, it has developed a bullish divergence: while the price reached lower lows, the RSI has not followed suit, suggesting that downward momentum may be fading. If this support level holds, the pair could initiate a recovery targeting the 1.1418 zone, where further resistance might come into play.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1375

Target price: 1.1420

Stop loss: 1.1335

Validity: Jun 13, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

OPEC+ decided at the end of last week that crude oil production will increase by 411,000 barrels per day in July. This is the third consecutive production increase by OPEC+. Increased geopolitical tensions offset the bearish oil prices.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

63.068

Entry Price

57.040

64.800

59.191 -0.618 -1.03%

173.2

Pips

Loss

57.040

64.801

Exit Price

63.068

Entry Price

64.800