Oil Pares Gains but Set for Sharp Monthly Advance as Geopolitical Storm Offsets Demand Fears

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

WTI crude edged lower but remained set for a strong ~12% monthly gain, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply outages sustained a significant risk premium, offsetting demand concerns.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

64.496

Entry Price

72.000

60.900

65.427 +0.175 +0.27%

104.1

Pips

Profit

60.900

65.537

Exit Price

64.496

Entry Price

72.000

In a classic display of the crude market’s current dichotomy, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures retreated from multi-session highs on Friday, yet held firmly on track for a striking monthly advance. The benchmark was last seen trading near $64.00 per barrel during the Asian session, a mild pullback after a three-day rally that underscores the complex tug-of-war between tangible supply risks and lingering macroeconomic anxieties.

Make no mistake: the dominant narrative for January has been one of resilience. Despite concerns over global demand growth and persistent warnings of an oversupplied market later this year, WTI is poised to close the month with a gain of roughly 12%. This impressive performance isn’t born from a surge of bullish economic data. Instead, it is almost entirely constructed atop an elevated—and still rising—geopolitical risk premium. The market is, in essence, pricing in a world where the flow of crude is perpetually one headline away from disruption.

This week, that premium received fresh and highly volatile injections from the world’s most precarious energy flashpoint. Tensions between the United States and Iran escalated dramatically, moving beyond diplomatic posturing into the realm of tangible military threat. The catalyst was a renewed volley of threats from former U.S. President Donald Trump directed at Tehran, urging a return to nuclear talks. Iran’s response was not calibrated for de-escalation. A senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned the nation would “defend itself and respond like never before” if provoked.

The situation was immediately compounded by a significant political move from Europe. The European Union’s decision to formally designate Iran’s IRGC as a terrorist organization has further isolated the regime and narrowed the avenues for diplomatic maneuvering. The geopolitical chessboard saw pieces move rapidly: reports emerged of the U.S. bolstering its military footprint in the region, while Tehran, in a direct and provocative counter, announced plans for live-fire military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz.

For traders and analysts, the Strait of Hormuz is the only square on this chessboard that truly matters. This narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is the artery of global energy transit, with about a fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption passing through its waters. Any credible threat of its disruption sends a reflexive shiver through trading desks from Singapore to London. As strategists at Westpac noted via Dow Jones Newswires, the market is grappling with the potential for "chaotic" outcomes, a scenario far removed from the relatively controlled "surgical strikes" of the past.

Yet, even as one geopolitical front heated up, another saw a surprising, if tactical, thaw. In a notable shift, the Trump administration selectively eased certain sanctions on Venezuela’s beleaguered oil industry on Thursday. The move, clearly designed to lure U.S. investment following the U.S.-backed removal of President Nicolás Maduro earlier this month, grants specific licenses for American companies to engage in production, transport, and refining activities involving Venezuelan-origin crude. While this is a long-term play for reshaping Venezuela’s oil sector—and a strategic counter to Russian and Chinese influence there—its immediate market impact is psychological, reminding participants that barrels can re-enter the market from unexpected quarters.

This month’s price support has been a mosaic of such disruptions. The rally was initially bolstered by a confluence of unplanned outages: production hiccups in Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field, operational freeze-offs that curtailed output in the Permian Basin, and tighter U.S. enforcement of sanctions on Russian oil purchases. These factors collectively tightened the near-term physical balance sheet, providing a fundamental floor for prices that the geopolitical drama then built upon.

The market is walking a precarious tightrope. The 12% monthly gain is a testament to oil’s enduring sensitivity to supply shocks, real or imagined. However, the failure to hold above $64.50 suggests a market that is bullish, but not reckless. There is a palpable caution, a recognition that the current risk premium is substantial and vulnerable to rapid deflation should any of the geopolitical sparks fail to ignite a wider fire, or should tangible evidence of a supply overhang emerge.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, WTI Crude Oil is showing early signs of a trend transition following a prolonged bearish phase on the 4-hour chart. Price had been entrenched in a well-defined descending channel for several months, consistently producing lower highs and lower lows. However, recent price action shows a decisive bullish break above the upper boundary of that channel, signaling a meaningful shift in market structure and increasing the probability that a medium-term base has been established.

WTI is currently trading around the $64.00–$64.50 zone, which aligns with a major horizontal resistance-turned-support area. This level previously acted as a distribution zone during mid-2025 and has now been reclaimed with strong bullish momentum, suggesting acceptance above former supply. Holding above this region is critical; sustained price action above $63.50–$64.00 would confirm the breakout and reinforce the bullish reversal narrative. A failure to hold this level would imply a false breakout and could trigger a pullback toward $62.00, followed by the $60.00–$59.50 demand zone, where buyers previously stepped in aggressively.

To the downside, the $56.00–$57.00 region represents the most important structural support. This area marks the cycle low and the lower bound of the broader accumulation range. A decisive break below this zone would negate the bullish thesis entirely and reopen downside risk toward the $53.00–$50.00 region, signaling a continuation of the longer-term bearish trend.

On the upside, the next key resistance is located near $66.00–$68.00, a zone defined by prior swing highs and heavy historical trading activity. A clean break and hold above this region would likely accelerate upside momentum and expose higher targets toward $72.00, followed by the $75.00 psychological level, where sellers previously regained control. The sharp bullish expansion seen during the breakout suggests improving participation and a potential shift from corrective price action into trend continuation.

Momentum characteristics favor continuation rather than exhaustion. The impulsive nature of the breakout contrasts sharply with the overlapping, corrective structure that preceded it—often a hallmark of trend reversals rather than short-lived retracements. Volatility expansion following prolonged compression further supports the case for sustained directional movement.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY WTI CRUDE OIL

ENTRY PRICE: 64.50

STOP LOSS: 60.90

TAKE PROFIT: 72.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Forex

Technical Analysis

Summary:

The upside potential for the yen may be limited, as Tokyo's consumer price index (CPI) came in below expectations, lowering market expectations for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Data released Friday by Japan's Statistics Bureau showed Tokyo CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year in January, the slowest pace since March 2022, down from 2.0% in the previous month.

BUY USDJPY

EXP

PENDING

153.400

Entry Price

160.000

149.500

154.757 +1.653 +1.08%

Pips

PENDING

149.500

Exit Price

153.400

Entry Price

160.000

Fundamentals

Markets expect coordinated intervention measures between the U.S. and Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned last week that officials are prepared to take necessary steps to address speculative and highly abnormal market volatility. On the other hand, yen upside may be limited because the weaker-than-expected Tokyo CPI has reduced expectations for an imminent BoJ rate hike. According to data released Friday by Japan's Statistics Bureau, Tokyo CPI rose 1.5% YoY in January, the lowest growth rate since March 2022, down from 2.0% in the previous month. Meanwhile, Tokyo's core CPI YoY growth slowed to 2.0% in January, the lowest since October 2024, down from 2.3% in December and below the market forecast of 2.2%. This report reinforced market expectations that the BoJ will remain cautious about further rate hikes. In domestic politics, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is widely expected to perform well in the House of Representatives snap election scheduled for February 8. Preliminary results based on interviews conducted by Nikkei and a joint poll with Yomiuri Shimbun suggest the LDP is expected to gain seats and cross the majority threshold of 233 out of 465 House seats, significantly higher than its pre-election tally of 198. Currently, the ruling coalition of the LDP and Nippon Ishin no Kai holds only a narrow majority in the House and remains in the minority in the Upper House. Takaichi called the snap election to seek clearer public endorsement for her expansionary fiscal policies, but this policy direction has raised market concerns over a potential increase in Japanese government bond issuance, pushing bond yields higher. Although the campaign is still in its early stages, the LDP's overall momentum remains strong.

In financial markets, Japanese authorities are tackling yen depreciation pressure in a different way from before. With rare U.S. backing, Japan’s top currency official has adopted a strategy of “tactical silence” and restrained communication rather than frequent FX intervention. Atsushi Mimura, Vice Minister for International Affairs at the Ministry of Finance, who took office in 2024, has deliberately reduced public statements, making limited remarks themselves a policy signal and increasing market difficulty in judging whether and when Japan might intervene. Analysts note that without deploying large-scale intervention funds, Japan has pushed USD/JPY down by roughly 7 yen, regarded as a highly efficient operation. Recently, the yen has experienced several notable appreciations, including one following reports of unusual interest rate checks by the New York Fed, sparking speculation of a long-unseen joint U.S.–Japan intervention. Although the U.S. denied direct intervention, America's involvement in related rate checks is viewed as a significant breakthrough.

According to Bloomberg, Trump said Thursday evening that he would announce his nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair on Friday morning. Earlier reports indicated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh met with Trump at the White House, after which Warsh emerged as a leading candidate. Traders will closely watch developments and their potential impact on Fed independence and interest rate prospects. The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that Trump reached an agreement with Senate Democrats that could avert a government shutdown and buy more time to negotiate limits on government immigration policies. Market anxiety eased after the news broke. However, it remains unclear how quickly—or even if—the House will take up the funding bills once passed by the Senate. The shutdown deadline is midnight Friday. If market worries resurface, especially regarding Fed independence and the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, the dollar's rebound may prove short-lived, and these concerns could continue to weigh on the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

From a daily chart perspective, USD/JPY's Bollinger Bands are opening downward, moving averages are diverging lower, and price is falling strongly along the Bollinger Lower Band. After MACD formed a death cross, upward momentum clearly weakened. Besides, the MACD and signal lines have moved below the zero axis, indicating the market has entered a bearish trend. In the short term, price has stabilized and rebounded near the EMA200, potentially returning to around the EMA12 and the Bollinger Middle Band at 155.2 and 156.5, respectively. RSI is at 38, signaling an oversold zone where investors are mainly in sell mode.

Election Storm Approaches! USD/JPY Maintains Rebound Trend_1

Election Storm Approaches! USD/JPY Maintains Rebound Trend_2

Trading Recommendations:

Trading direction: Buy

Entry Price: 153.4

Target Price: 160

Stop Loss: 149.5

Support: 152/150/149.5

Resistance: 160/161/162

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Recent declines in Bitcoin are primarily influenced by expectations surrounding U.S. dollar monetary policy and ongoing institutional capital outflows, with the price currently approaching the 80,000 support level. A short-term rebound trend may be imminent.

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

TRADING

82766.9

Entry Price

89000.0

79000.0

83517.0 -736.2 -0.87%

0.0

Pips

Flat

79000.0

Exit Price

82766.9

Entry Price

89000.0

Fundamentals

Bitcoin continued its intraday decline today, with prices slipping from 85,000 to around 83,000, exhibiting oscillations. Short-term market volatility was primarily driven by a dual impact: expectations surrounding U.S. Federal Reserve chairman appointment and fluctuating institutional capital flows. Discussions about the Fed chair candidate and intermittent outflows from ETFs collectively suppressed risk asset demand, exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin and testing key support levels.

On the macro and institutional fundamental front, this week's asset rebalancing was influenced by macroeconomic and regulatory developments. Foremost, speculations about the Fed's future leadership and its inclination towards hawkish or dovish policies impacted liquidity expectations—if the incoming chair adopts a tighter stance, liquidity tightening could dampen demand for high-risk assets, exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin. Reuters reports indicated that guesses about the next Fed chair directly triggered today's sell-off. Additionally, the established spot Bitcoin ETF channels since 2025 continue to influence market dynamics, but fund flows have been non-linear: recent phases saw net outflows amid volatile institutional allocations, making prices more susceptible to significant retracements in response to news fluctuations. Analysis shows that ETF and institutional liquidity remain the decisive external variables influencing current price volatility.

Furthermore, on-chain dynamics and exchange order book supply and demand are influencing short-term market structures: reports indicate net outflows from certain centralized exchanges, suggesting institutional or large holder retreatment without rapid bottom-fishing; however, long-term investors and some institutional players exhibit willingness to accumulate on retracements, indicating that the fundamental demand base remains partially resilient. Overall, the current market sentiment resembles a pendulum swing between liquidity-driven trading and reallocation mood, lacking a clear overarching catalyst for directional movement.

Technical Analysis

A Double Bottom Will Be Formed in the 1D Timeframe, with a Potential Short-term Rebound_1

In the 1D timeframe, Bitcoin experienced a dip below the 80,000 level today, followed by a rapid rebound, indicating strong support at this zone. This level is near the lows established in November 2025, and the candlestick pattern suggests the potential formation of a double bottom. If the closing price exceeds 80,000 today, the double bottom pattern will be confirmed, signaling a short-term technical correction and potential rebound.

Currently, key support is identified at the 80,000 level; a breach below this could open further downside potential toward 75,000. Resistance in the short term is formed by the recent high points of the moving averages, approximately in the 88,000 to 92,000 range. Stabilization above this zone would be necessary to re-establish the medium-term bullish trajectory.

Regarding technical indicators, the RSI shows that the market has entered oversold territory, increasing the likelihood of a short-term rebound.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 82000

Target Price: 89000

Stop Loss: 79000

Valid Until: February 13, 2026 23:00:00

Support: 80000, 75000

Resistance: 88000, 92000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Economic

Summary:

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has slipped to around $82,000, breaking key short-term support amid macro uncertainty and risk-off flows, but recent oversold conditions are emerging that may attract dip buyers and initiate a corrective bounce...

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

TRADING

82511.5

Entry Price

86500.0

80400.0

83517.0 -736.2 -0.87%

0.0

Pips

Flat

80400.0

Exit Price

82511.5

Entry Price

86500.0

Market Overview

Bitcoin has been under pressure and recently traded near the $82,000–$83,000 zone, down sharply as macro risk sentiment dampened appetite for speculative assets. The price decline accelerated following concerns over U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy shifts and broader market sell-offs that weakened BTC momentum below critical support levels. Despite this weakness, the sharp drop is approaching deeper historical support zones, where oversold readings often attract technical buyers and short covering.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment remains cautious but shows signs that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion around current levels. Bitcoin’s extended sell-off below major supports has pushed the market into oversold territory, and although bearish narratives dominate short-term headlines, some analysts indicate the possibility of stabilization as BTC finds a base around these lows. Traders observing key psychological support at ~$80,000–$82,000 may begin to accumulate, particularly if broader risk markets show signs of steadiness.

Technical Analysis

BTC Testing Oversold Support Around $82K With Potential Rebound Setup_1

On the M15 timeframe, BTC is trading near significant short-term support as selling momentum slows, with technical indicators often showing oversold conditions capable of producing rebounds. While resistance remains above recent consolidation ranges (near $87,500–$89,000), the current support cluster provides a tactical buy zone for a corrective move. A successful bounce from these levels could see BTC attempt to reclaim weaker resistances and test the short-term overhead supply.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 82500

Take Profit: 86500

Stop Loss: 80400

BUY BTC at current oversold support, expecting a rebound toward short-term resistance, with disciplined risk management due to prevailing volatility and mixed macro drivers. A break below 80400 would signal deeper bearish continuation and invalidate the near-term buy setup.

Tell me if you need a sell setup at higher levels or a higher timeframe (H1/H4) analysis.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

XAU/USD is showing renewed buy interest after a significant pullback from record highs near $5,594, stabilizing around $5,170–$5,230....

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

5169.05

Entry Price

5350.00

5050.00

4894.49 -481.82 -8.96%

1190.5

Pips

Loss

5050.00

5049.72

Exit Price

5169.05

Entry Price

5350.00

Market Overview

Gold has experienced exceptional volatility this month with an extraordinary rally to all-time highs above $5,590, driven by macroeconomic instability, deep USD weakness and intense safe-haven flows. After hitting peak levels, a meaningful correction took hold as traders booked profits and the US dollar found temporary strength, pulling XAU back toward the $5,100–$5,200 area. Recent price action shows that this pullback is not yet a broader reversal but rather a consolidation within the larger upward trend, creating a tactical buy-on-dip opportunity on the M15 timeframe. Macro factors such as continued geopolitical uncertainties and expectations for future Fed policy shifts support renewed demand for gold as a hedge.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment remains broadly bullish for gold despite short-term correction pressures. The recent sell-off reflects profit-taking after extreme overextension rather than a fundamental shift toward bearishness. Safe-haven demand persists as investors remain cautious about economic, inflation and geopolitical risks, keeping the broader narrative supportive of higher gold prices over time. With gold still holding significant gains from earlier in January, dip buyers are watching key support levels for re-entry as momentum stabilizes and oversold conditions on lower timeframes materialize.

Technical Analysis

Gold Correction Turns into Buy Opportunity_1

On M15 charts, after a sharp pullback from the record highs, price is finding buyers near dynamic support zones and previous short-term pivot levels. Indicators suggest that the recent decline may be completing its correction phase, and momentum oscillators (e.g., RSI turning up from oversold) are hinting at renewed bullish pressure. Consolidation around current levels near $5,170–$5,230 offers a structurally sound entry zone for a buy-on-dip trade, targeting the next swing highs while managing risk if the correction deepens further.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 5170

Take Profit: 5350

Stop Loss: 5050

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

A bullish crossover appears imminent. If the histogram transitions into positive territory and the signal lines clear the neutral level, we could see a sustained bullish correction.

BUY EURCHF

EXP

TRADING

0.91583

Entry Price

0.92000

0.91300

0.91591 +0.00114 +0.12%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.91300

Exit Price

0.91583

Entry Price

0.92000

The recent surge in the Euro's valuation has officially entered the radar of European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers, reigniting a critical debate regarding the impact of a persistently strong currency on the future path of monetary policy. A firm Euro could, over time, emerge as a complicating factor for the inflation outlook, thereby influencing the central bank's restrictive stance.

In this context, Martin Kocher, Governor of the Austrian Central Bank and a member of the ECB Governing Council, noted that a continuous appreciation of the Euro might eventually necessitate a monetary policy response. Kocher clarified that such a move would not involve direct intervention in the foreign exchange market, but rather an adjustment to address the indirect effects; a stronger Euro naturally exerts downward pressure on inflation, making it a pivotal variable for the ECB's decision-making process. Following these remarks, the Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) market reflected a slight uptick in easing expectations. Traders currently assign approximately a 26% probability to a rate cut at the September meeting, up from the previously estimated 16%. Despite this shift, the broader consensus remains that the ECB will hold its current posture at the upcoming meeting on February 4–5.

Simultaneously, the Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to exhibit relative stability, though it remains notably weak against its antipodean peers. This underperformance persists even after Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Martin Schlegel alerted markets to the possibility of negative inflation episodes in the short term. During his address at the World Economic Forum, Schlegel noted a high probability of inflation dipping into negative territory this year, suggesting that a temporary deflationary period would not pose a significant threat to the broader Swiss economy.

From a domestic perspective, market valuations continue to price in the risk of the SNB cutting interest rates back into negative territory in the coming months. This concern is underscored by a -1.8% year-over-year decline in the December Producer Price Index (PPI), which brings deflationary risks back to the forefront. While January’s CPI held at 0.1%, the trajectory remains fragile, especially when coupled with a weak Manufacturing PMI of 45.8. With the next SNB policy meeting not scheduled until March 19th, the Franc remains vulnerable to further downside if the current 0% policy rate is perceived as insufficient to combat cooling price dynamics. Fading Bearish Pressure And ECB Rhetoric Point To EURCHF Recovery_1

Fading Bearish Pressure And ECB Rhetoric Point To EURCHF Recovery_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/CHF appears to be establishing a local floor after staging a bullish rebound from the 0.9143 support zone. With the outlook for a strengthening Euro gaining traction, this level may represent the definitive local bottom. A bullish correction from this area currently seems highly probable.

On the 1-hour chart, the immediate upside targets are centered around the 100-period Moving Average at 0.9193 and the 200-period MA at 0.9235. Additionally, a significant horizontal resistance is located at 0.9196, which aligns closely with the 100-period MA, creating a high-probability "magnet" for the current recovery.

Our momentum analysis via the MACD reinforces this reversal thesis. Although the signal lines remain below the neutral zone, the histogram is printing progressively smaller bearish bars, indicating that downward momentum is rapidly exhausting. A bullish crossover appears imminent. If the histogram transitions into positive territory and the signal lines clear the neutral level, we could see a sustained bullish correction.

As long as the price maintains its integrity above the 0.9143 handle, long positions are favored. A technical "reset" of the MACD above the zero line would confirm the shift in control, paving the way for a test of the major moving average cluster.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.9157

Target price: 0.9200

Stop loss: 0.9130

Validity: Feb 11, 2026 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

This confluence of indicators suggests that the pair is gathering sufficient momentum to initiate a new bullish impulse.

BUY AUDCHF

EXP

TRADING

0.53620

Entry Price

0.54450

0.53200

0.53809 -0.00050 -0.09%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.53200

Exit Price

0.53620

Entry Price

0.54450

In Australia, recent inflation figures have exceeded market forecasts, significantly intensifying expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may be forced to pivot toward a more restrictive monetary policy stance. In December, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a monthly advancement of 1.0%, a sharp reversal from November's flat reading and comfortably above the 0.7% market consensus. On a year-over-year basis, inflation accelerated from 3.4% to 3.8%, also overshooting the estimated 3.6%.

Conversely, the trimmed-mean (core) inflation data presented a more nuanced picture. While the monthly core figure rose by 0.2% in December—aligning with forecasts but slowing from the prior month's 0.3%—the annual rate edged higher to 3.3%. This remains stubbornly above the RBA's target range of 2%–3%. Furthermore, the NAB Business Confidence Survey for December reinforces the narrative for a tighter policy environment. Should the upcoming trimmed-mean CPI readings continue to exceed projections, the central bank will face mounting pressure to hike rates at its February meeting, a scenario that would likely provide substantial tailwinds for the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Across the globe, the Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to exhibit relative stability, though it remains notably weak against its antipodean peers. This underperformance persists even after Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Martin Schlegel alerted markets to the possibility of negative inflation episodes in the short term. During his address at the World Economic Forum, Schlegel noted a high probability of inflation dipping into negative territory this year, though he emphasized that a few months of deflationary pressure would not pose a significant threat to the broader economy.

From a domestic macroeconomic perspective, market valuations continue to reflect the risk of the SNB cutting interest rates below zero in the coming months. This concern is bolstered by a -1.8% year-over-year decline in the December Producer Price Index (PPI), which brings deflationary risks back into focus. While January's CPI held at 0.1%, confirming that headline inflation remains positive, the current trajectory is undeniably fragile. Combined with a weak Manufacturing PMI of 45.8, the Swiss economy continues to face persistent structural obstacles. With the next SNB policy meeting not scheduled until March 19th, the Franc remains susceptible to further downside if the current 0% policy rate is perceived as insufficient to combat cooling price dynamics. Resilient Technical Structure Points Toward Potential AUDCHF Breakout_1

Resilient Technical Structure Points Toward Potential AUDCHF Breakout_1

Technical Analysis

AUD/CHF remains entrenched in a definitive primary uptrend. The pair recently experienced a minor corrective phase after encountering a "Double Top" rejection at the 0.5430 level. However, the price has found a solid floor upon approaching the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages on the 4-hour chart, situated at 0.5350 and 0.5321, respectively.

This technical foundation is further reinforced by a significant horizontal support level at 0.5362. This confluence of indicators suggests that the pair is gathering sufficient momentum to initiate a new bullish impulse. A successful defense of this "Value Area" could finally provide the strength needed to breach the recent resistance and target the 0.5445 zone, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci expansion—a primary area of interest for a long-term breakout.

Our momentum analysis via the MACD confirms that the broader trend remains bullish, with the signal lines comfortably situated above the neutral zone. While the histogram is currently printing smaller bullish bars—suggesting a temporary consolidation or a shallow retest of the 100-period MA—the underlying structural bias remains positive.

As long as the pair holds above this key support cluster, we favor long positions. A technical "reset" of the histogram near the zero line would offer a high-probability entry signal for a trend continuation toward recent highs and beyond.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.5362

Target price: 0.5445

Stop loss: 0.5320

Validity: Feb 11, 2026 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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