NZD Slides to Seven-Month Low as RBNZ-Fed Policy Divergence Widens Ahead of Rate Decision

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The New Zealand Dollar is stuck near seven-month lows as expectations of an imminent RBNZ rate cut collide with diminishing hopes of near-term Fed easing, widening policy divergence and driving sustained USD strength.

SELL NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.56050

Entry Price

0.54800

0.56600

0.57806 +0.00052 +0.09%

55.0

Pips

Loss

0.54800

0.56606

Exit Price

0.56050

Entry Price

0.56600

The New Zealand Dollar remained pinned near seven-month lows on Friday, with NZD/USD struggling around 0.5580 as bulls repeatedly failed to reclaim the 0.5600 handle. The pair’s inability to generate meaningful upside reflects an increasingly stark monetary policy divergence: investors expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to deliver another rate cut next week, while diminishing prospects for a December Federal Reserve easing continue to support broad U.S. Dollar strength.

Markets have spent weeks recalibrating their expectations for global monetary policy, and for New Zealand, the shift has been particularly bearish. The local economy continues to lose momentum, inflation pressures are easing more quickly than expected, and leading indicators suggest further cooling is inevitable. Meanwhile, U.S. data has remained surprisingly resilient, providing the Fed with a stronger case to delay easing. Together, the two trajectories have positioned NZD/USD firmly on the defensive, with little sign of a near-term trend reversal.

Fresh U.S. employment data released Thursday reinforced the economy’s relative outperformance. The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September—more than double the expected 50,000—in a signal that hiring, although slower than earlier in the year, is not collapsing as previously feared. The October reading, however, was revised significantly lower to a net loss of 4,000 jobs, compared with an initially reported 22,000 gain.

Even with the softer revision, the overall narrative remains one of stability rather than deterioration. Surprisingly, the U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, its highest level in four years, from 4.3% in August. Yet this rise did little to revive expectations of a December rate cut. Market probabilities for a Fed move have now slipped below 50%, compared with over 60% last week and nearly 100% just a month ago.

For currency markets, this shift is critical. As traders gradually unwind expectations of rapid Fed easing, the U.S. Dollar has found renewed strength—particularly against currencies like the NZD, where domestic conditions point in the opposite direction.

Recent New Zealand economic releases highlight a country struggling to regain traction after a prolonged slowdown. Producer price index figures showed factory-gate inflation moderating more sharply than anticipated, and the RBNZ’s own survey of inflation expectations for Q4 held steady within the central bank’s price-stability range.

Together, these metrics underscore the reduced inflation threat and strengthen the case for additional monetary easing. With growth subdued and inflation trending down, policymakers have few incentives to remain restrictive. Markets are now almost fully pricing in another rate cut next week—one that would drop the Official Cash Rate to 2.25%, its lowest level in three years and well below the 5.5% peak seen in August 2024.

That magnitude of easing relative to the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance is precisely the policy divergence fueling NZD/USD weakness.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, NZD/USD remains firmly trapped within a bearish structure. The pair extended declines after breaking below the key support zone at 0.5610, a level that previously provided multiple reaction points. Price action continues to trade beneath the 50-day exponential moving average, reinforcing the dominant downward trend.

The structure on the shorter-term charts also reflects persistent negative bias, with the pair trading along a well-defined descending minor trendline. However, some early signs of downside exhaustion are emerging: relative strength indicators have slipped into oversold territory, suggesting that the pace of losses could slow in the near term.

Still, without a sustained break above 0.5650—or a notable shift in macro drivers—any recovery attempts may struggle to gain traction. For now, the path of least resistance remains to the downside, with potential for further declines toward 0.5530 or even 0.5480 if the RBNZ signals a more aggressive easing cycle.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.56050

STOP LOSS: 0.56600

TAKE PROFIT: 0.5480

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Commodity

Forex

Summary:

In Friday's European session, silver printed a fresh weekly low near $49.20. With the market pricing out a December Fed cut, the metal remains under heavy sell pressure.

SELL XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

49.376

Entry Price

45.000

53.000

58.354 +0.037 +0.06%

66.0

Pips

Profit

45.000

48.716

Exit Price

49.376

Entry Price

53.000

Fundamentals

According to data from authoritative international bodies, the global silver market is heading into its fifth consecutive year of supply deficit, with the shortfall expected to reach approximately 95 million ounces in 2025. This is not a sudden crisis, but a chronic structural imbalance that has persisted for years. What distinguishes the current cycle, however, is a decisive shift in the primary driver of the deficit.

Industrial fabrication demand has softened amid the global economic slowdown, yet this gap has been more than offset by an explosive wave of investment demand. Holdings of physically-backed silver ETFs have surged to 187 million ounces, a multi-year high, underscoring that investors now regard silver as a safe-haven hedge against stagflation and sovereign-credit volatility. The price-setting force is no longer factory orders, but a torrent of institutional and retail capital.

Beyond market fundamentals, policy has opened a new valuation channel for silver: Washington recently designated the metal as a "critical mineral." This re-labeling is material—it confers strategic status at the federal level and flags prospective policy support, strategic stockpiling, or trade restrictions. Over the long run it establishes a durable policy floor under the silver price.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 35.5% probability that the FOMC will lower the federal-funds target range by 25 bp to 3.50%–3.75% at its December meeting. A status-quo outcome would be an ill omen for non-interest-bearing assets such as silver. Officials' lingering concern about upside inflation risks keeps dovish Fed pricing subdued. On Thursday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said elevated inflation is the economy's "real problem," adding that "inflation is still too high and moving in the wrong direction," and therefore monetary policy needs to remain "modestly restrictive."

Meanwhile, the continuously rising U.S. unemployment rate has failed to materially strengthen market expectations for a dovish shift by the Fed. Thursday's release of September non-farm payrolls showed the jobless rate climbing to 4.4%. In Friday's session, investors will focus on the flash reading of S&P Global's U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November, due at 14:45 GMT.

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands on silver are contracting, with the bandwidth narrowing and the moving averages flattening. After facing resistance at the upper Bollinger Band, the price is oscillating near the middle band. The MACD has formed a bearish crossover (dead cross), and upward momentum is waning—this is a classic top divergence signal, indicating further downside ahead. RSI stands at 49, reflecting a neutral-to-bearish sentiment. Key support levels are at the EMA50 (47.8) and the lower Bollinger Band (45.5).

The Bollinger Bands are widening downward, and the moving averages are fanning out bearishly, confirming the short-term downtrend remains intact. The price is likely to retest the EMA12 descending trendline before resuming its decline, with a high probability of breaking below 45.5. RSI at 36 shows strong bearish momentum.

In this stage, traders are recommended to take short positions at highs.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 49.4

Target Price: 45

Stop Loss: 53

Support: 45/40/37.7

Resistance Levels: 50/52/55

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Forex

Commodity

Summary:

Strong U.S. employment data ha dampened market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially limiting further upside for precious metals prices. Traders are closely watching the upcoming release of the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI flash readings and the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index, both due out later on Friday.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4038.10

Entry Price

3600.00

4390.00

4211.84 +13.93 +0.33%

2059.5

Pips

Loss

3600.00

4244.05

Exit Price

4038.10

Entry Price

4390.00

Fundamentals

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that he will negotiate with U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a 28-point U.S.-backed peace plan for Ukraine. The proposal requires painful concessions from Ukraine to end Russia's invasion. This ongoing geopolitical risk continues to support commodity prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its highly anticipated non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for September on Thursday, showing that the U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September. This followed an upwardly revised gain of 22,000 jobs in August (previously reported as a decline of 4,000), but still fell short of the 150,000 expected by economists, although it did beat the 50,000 forecast for September. This structural contradiction in the labor market makes it difficult for investors to form a clear judgment on the health of the economy. More importantly, remarks from Fed officials have further heightened policy uncertainty. Several policymakers, including Governor

Michael Barr, Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee have expressed concerns over persistent inflation, warning that premature rate cuts could prolong inflationary pressures and pose risks to financial stability. Only White House adviser Kevin Hassett has dissented, advocating for immediate rate reductions. Notably, due to statistical disruptions caused by the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, the next employment report will be delayed until December 16th. This means the Federal Reserve will face a critical vacuum of key economic data ahead of its December policy meeting — an unprecedented situation that is forcing markets to reassess the policy outlook. As a result, the U.S. dollar index remains above the 100 level, continuing to weigh on gold prices.

The U.S. dollar's recent rally to its highest level since May lost some momentum due to the prolonged government shutdown and weakened economic growth. Additionally, overall weakness in equity markets provided some support to gold as a safe-haven asset. As such, gold traders should remain cautious and prepare for the possibility of significant short-term depreciation.

Previously, the minutes of the October FOMC meeting released on Wednesday revealed ongoing divisions among committee members regarding the future policy direction, with dovish sentiment weakening. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of another Fed rate cut in December has dropped to around 35%. Senior metals strategist Peter Grant commented that these data largely confirm what the Fed discussed in October — the labor market is slowing but remains stable. He also explained that the likelihood of a rate cut in December now appears increasingly slim. This has put downward pressure on gold prices. Traders will be closely monitoring the U.S. S&P Global PMI flash readings due out later on Friday. Any signs of economic weakness in the U.S. could boost gold prices, which continue to find some support as a traditional safe-haven asset. Additionally, continued accumulation of gold by major central banks provides further underlying support. Officials from the People's Bank of China stated that the bank added 1.2 tons of gold in September and has now increased its holdings for the 12th consecutive month in October.

Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, with the price briefly breaking below $4040. In the near term, the depreciating trend remains unchanged. Meanwhile, a death cross is formed with the signal line and the MACD line heading downward, getting closer to the 0-axis, a signal of selling. The RSI stays at 38, indicating condensed market pessimism, with support located at $4000 and $3930. Regarding the daily chart, the MACD bullish histogram is gradually weakening, even as price fails to make new highs — a sign of a potential bearish divergence. The likelihood of further short-term declines is relatively high. Support levels include the Bollinger Lower Band and the 50-day EMA, at $3900 and $3959, respectively. The RSI is at 49, placing the price in a neutral zone, though recent highs have been gradually declining. It is recommended to sell at highs.

PMI Data Imminent: Can Gold Defend the $4,000 Level?_1

PMI Data Imminent: Can Gold Defend the $4,000 Level?_2

Trading Recommendations:

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4045

Target price: 3600

Stop loss: 4390

Support: 3900/3800/3600

Resistance: 4380/4500/5000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

Yesterday, the U.S. released September non-farm payroll data that far exceeded expectations, which will provide continued support for the U.S. dollar in the short term, thereby pushing the USDJPY to continue to rise.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

156.717

Entry Price

160.100

155.200

155.236 -0.109 -0.07%

151.7

Pips

Loss

155.200

155.197

Exit Price

156.717

Entry Price

160.100

Fundamentals

The non-farm employment data released by the U.S. yesterday significantly exceeded expectations: in September, non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, surpassing the market forecast of 50,000. This unexpected growth prompted the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's timing for interest rate cuts and the dollar's valuation in the short term. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate modestly rose to 4.4%, with wage growth remaining moderate, indicating ongoing employment structural differentiation.

From a forex transmission perspective, the better-than-expected non-farm figures initially supported the dollar's tone—market expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates in the near term have been reinstated, leading to continued capital inflows into USD assets. As for the yen, the immediate consequence of the dollar's strength is the renewed upward momentum in USDJPY, igniting short-term bullish sentiment. Several forex institutions and research firms reported that USDJPY is testing key resistance levels with room to push higher.

However, the data also carry some cautious signals: the rise in unemployment and moderate wage growth suggest that the economy is not overheating across the board. If future data weaken over the coming months, expectations for interest rate cuts could increase again, making the dollar's strength difficult to sustain long-term. This indicates that trading strategies should primarily focus on short-term dollar momentum while maintaining a cautious mid-term approach.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY Surges Strongly; 160.00 May Be Just the Beginning_1

In the 1D timeframe, after breaking out of the triangle consolidation pattern, the USDJPY has recently demonstrated a strong upward momentum. The primary resistance level to monitor is at 158.86. A decisive break above this level could further extend the bullish move, potentially targeting the 160.00 psychological resistance.

It is recommended to use the 4H MA20 or the 1D MA5 as support levels, going long at the lows.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 156.85

Target Price: 160.10

Stop Loss: 155.20

Valid Until: December 5, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 156.80, 155.45

Resistance: 158.86, 160.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Commodity

Central Bank

Summary:

The price has shown a distinct upward reaction after approaching this zone. If this pattern of support holds true once more, it could trigger a new bullish impulse from this area.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4079.39

Entry Price

4180.00

4000.00

4211.84 +13.93 +0.33%

1006.1

Pips

Profit

4000.00

4180.57

Exit Price

4079.39

Entry Price

4180.00

Recent U.S. labor data has sent mixed signals. September's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 119,000, comfortably surpassing the market expectation of a 50,000 increase. However, the August reading was sharply revised downward, showing a loss of 4,000 jobs instead of the previously reported gain of 22,000. The Unemployment Rate also ticked up to 4.4%, modestly above the 4.3% estimate, reaching its highest level in four years.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 100.18. This sees the index hovering near its highest levels since August and revisiting territory last seen on November 5th, reflecting persistent strength in the Greenback.

Wage growth showed moderation, with Average Hourly Earnings rising 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, falling slightly short of the 0.3% expectation and softer than the previous 0.4% rise. On an annual basis, wages expanded by 3.8%, matching the prior reading and marginally beating the 3.7% forecast. Meanwhile, Average Weekly Hours remained stable at 34.2, meeting expectations.

The latest labor market data from the U.S. continues to signal deceleration. The ADP report indicated that U.S. private payrolls recorded a weekly average decline of 2,500 in the four weeks leading up to November 1st, a notable improvement from the steeper 11,250 average loss observed in the preceding period. Separately, August Factory Orders expanded by 1.4% MoM, which met consensus estimates and successfully reversed the 1.3% contraction recorded in July.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller adopted a distinctly dovish tone on Tuesday, characterizing the U.S. labor market as "weak" and "near stalling speed." He suggested that the current restrictive policy appears to be dampening economic activity and reiterated his view that a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting would provide "additional assurance" for the stability of the labor market.

Commentary from other Federal Reserve officials remains highly divergent. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson offered cautious, slightly dovish remarks on Monday, acknowledging growing risks to employment. Conversely, Kansas City Fed President Jeffery Schmid argued that the current policy stance is "moderately restrictive," which he deems appropriate to counter demand growth. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem suggested that rates are now closer to neutral than restrictive, emphasizing the limited scope for easing without risking an overly accommodative stance. In contrast, the Fed's Thomas Barkin offered a more balanced evaluation, noting that "it's hard to declare victory on either mandate" and acknowledging that while the labor market is weakening, it may not weaken much further. Gold Bulls Eye Breakout as Price Consolidates Above Key Moving Averages_1

Gold Bulls Eye Breakout as Price Consolidates Above Key Moving Averages_1

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) has entered a clear phase of consolidation following two exceptionally strong bullish impulses. Price action has recently found decisive support near the 200-period Moving Average (MA) on the 4-hour chart, currently located at $4,080, while the 100-period MA sits just below at $4,054.

The price has shown a distinct upward reaction after approaching this zone. If this pattern of support holds true once more, it could trigger a new bullish impulse from this area. Crucially, a key ascending trendline aligns very closely with these moving average levels, adding significant technical pressure for a rally from this support cluster.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently stable at the 49 level, indicating neutral sentiment. The price is also forming a symmetrical triangle pattern that is visibly tightening, suggesting a breakout could be imminent in either direction. Given the prevailing technical factors—specifically the trendline and MA support confluence—bullish positions are favored. Should the price push upward and break the descending trendline resistance of the triangle, it would pave the way for a more extended move higher. However, a breakdown below the ascending trendline support would signal a deeper bearish correction.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 4078

Target price: 4180

Stop loss: 4000

Validity: Dec 03, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

If this historical price action is repeated, short positions would be favored from this resistance zone, targeting 0.7984, the next local support level.

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.80553

Entry Price

0.79850

0.81150

0.80317 -0.00138 -0.17%

8.2

Pips

Profit

0.79850

0.80471

Exit Price

0.80553

Entry Price

0.81150

The latest labor market data from the U.S. continues to signal deceleration. The ADP report indicated that U.S. private payrolls recorded a weekly average decline of 2,500 in the four weeks leading up to November 1st, a notable improvement from the steeper 11,250 average loss observed in the preceding period. Separately, August Factory Orders expanded by 1.4% month-over-month (MoM), which met consensus estimates and successfully reversed the 1.3% contraction recorded in July.

Adding to the complexity, President Donald Trump reversed previously imposed tariffs on over 200 consumer products, including coffee and orange juice. This decision was reportedly driven by an acknowledgment of the inflationary impact resulting from increased import costs. Despite the economic rationale, the immediate market reaction to this tariff news remained marginal.

In contrast, the Fed’s Thomas Barkin offered a more balanced evaluation, noting that "it’s hard to declare victory on either mandate" and emphasizing that inflation, while above target, is unlikely to re-accelerate. Barkin acknowledged that the labor market is weakening but argued that it may not weaken much further, adding that the job market appears "somewhat softer than the data suggests."

Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to grapple with the headwinds of a strong Franc, weak domestic inflation, and modest economic growth. In comments made earlier this month, SNB Board Member Petra Tschudin stated that the central bank is "in a good position with the current interest rates," noting that inflation projections remain within its target range of 0-2%. She also indicated that the SNB does not currently see a case for cutting rates below zero, though such a move cannot be ruled out if conditions change. Bearish Reversal Looms as Head and Shoulders Pattern Takes Shape_1

Bearish Reversal Looms as Head and Shoulders Pattern Takes Shape_1

Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair is displaying a significant technical formation on the candlestick chart known as a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern.The appearance of this pattern is a strong indication of a potential trend reversal to the downside. The price recently rallied to 0.8076, a level previously touched on October 9th. On that prior occasion, the price reacted sharply downward from this exact point. If this historical price action is repeated, short positions would be favored from this resistance zone, targeting 0.7984, the next local support level. This target zone is particularly critical as it aligns closely with the 0.618 and 0.50% Fibonacci retracement levels, which often act as magnet targets for significant market pullbacks.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached a high of 72.97, moving clearly into overbought territory. This extreme reading suggests that bullish momentum is exhausted and could invite bears to take control of the next price movement. The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are situated at 0.8022 and 0.7998, respectively. These levels sit near the midpoint of the price's recent range since early October, making them a natural magnet for the price toward the primary support zone. Conversely, a strong move above the current local high would invalidate the bearish H&S setup and open the door for a renewed move to the upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.8053

Target price: 0.7985

Stop loss: 0.8115

Validity: Dec 03, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

Australia’s wage price index rose 0.8% QoQ in Q3, with the private sector lagging. RBA officials have sounded a hawkish note, and the cash rate is now expected to remain unchanged until 2026.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64360

Entry Price

0.66780

0.63700

0.66391 +0.00008 +0.01%

78.9

Pips

Profit

0.63700

0.65149

Exit Price

0.64360

Entry Price

0.66780

Fundamentals

AUDUSD retained its corrective bounce near 0.6464 through the Asian and European sessions on Thursday after printing a five-week low of 0.6450. Persistent hawkish push-back from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials continues to undergird the currency.

Wednesday’s data showed the wage price index (WPI) advancing 0.8% QoQ in Q3, in line with consensus and unchanged from Q2.

The headline stability masks modest sectoral divergence: private-sector wages grew 0.7% QoQ while public-sector wages rose 0.9% QoQ extending their recent out-performance.

In annual terms, wages were 3.4% higher than a year earlier, matching Q2. Public-sector pay growth ticked up to 3.8% YoY (vs. 3.7% in Q2), whereas private-sector growth slowed to 3.2% YoY from 3.5% in Sep-2024—marking a third consecutive quarter in which public-sector wage momentum has outpaced the private sector.

Market insight: Australia’s YoY wage momentum remains elevated against a backdrop of tight labour markets and anaemic productivity growth, implying that disinflationary progress could be protracted and complicating the policy calculus for the RBA.

RBA has delivered rate cuts on three occasions this year, taking the cash rate to 3.60%, but it retains a data-dependent, cautiously balanced stance. With the labour market still tight and productivity subdued, the policy debate is shifting toward the extent of further easing space. Yet with unemployment near historic lows, tentative signs of inflation re-acceleration and consumer spending running ahead of expectations, the Board is closely monitoring corporate pricing behaviour.

Governor Michele Bullock has hinted that near-term policy easing is unlikely. Our base case is for the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold through 2026.

Still-Elevated Wage Growth and the RBA’s Hawkish Tilt Underpin the Aussie Rebound_1

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD has staged a mild intraday recovery. A break below the 0.6413 region (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.5913–0.6706 range) would expose the 0.6403 handle and open the door to a deeper bearish extension.

On the upside, a sustained move above the near-term resistance at 0.6517 would neutralise the intraday bearish bias.