Moving Average Confluence Ignites Potential for New Rally

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This classic reversal formation, aligning with the broader prevailing trend, suggests that a renewed bullish extension from this support zone is highly probable.

BUY USDJPY

EXP

TRADING

156.310

Entry Price

157.700

155.300

156.612 +0.193 +0.12%

0.0

Pips

Flat

155.300

Exit Price

156.310

Entry Price

157.700

The Japanese Yen experienced widespread strengthening following the release of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest monetary policy minutes. The documents revealed a consensus among members that interest rates remain significantly below neutral levels. However, several officials emphasized the necessity of a cautious approach to avoid destabilizing the domestic economy or broader financial markets.

In December, the BoJ successfully hiked its benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.75%, marking a three-decade high. The bank further hinted at additional adjustments throughout 2026 as it continues its normalization process. Despite this hawkish pivot, investor concerns persist regarding Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus stance. Market participants fear such policies could exacerbate an already strained fiscal deficit, as the looming risk of a debt crisis remains a significant headwind for any sustained Yen recovery.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the domestic economy expanded at a robust annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter. This figure significantly outperformed market expectations of 3.3% and surpassed the previous estimate of 3.8%. Accompanying this strong growth, inflation metrics within the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report remained firm: the GDP Price Index rose by 3.7%, while Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased by 2.9%, with core PCE prices climbing 2.8%.

Despite this vigorous growth, the manufacturing sector exhibited signs of cooling. Durable Goods Orders fell by 2.2% in October, reversing a prior gain of 0.7%. Excluding defense, orders dropped by 1.5%, and while orders excluding transportation saw a marginal 0.2% increase, overall Industrial Production slipped by 0.1% month-over-month. In contrast, the housing market showed unexpected strength; data from the National Association of Realtors revealed that Pending Home Sales rose by 3.3% in November, marking their highest level since early 2023.

The Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, bringing the target range to 3.50%–3.75%. This marks a cumulative reduction of 75 bps in 2025 as the central bank navigates a cooling labor market and persistent inflation.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in an accelerated easing cycle, with traders anticipating at least two additional cuts by the end of September 2026. Moving Average Confluence Ignites Potential for New Rally_1

Moving Average Confluence Ignites Potential for New Rally_1

Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair is currently exhibiting a bullish reaction as it approaches a critical technical floor. The 100 and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are converging near the 155.80 price level, creating a formidable zone of dynamic support.

This area is increasingly significant as the price action appears to be carving out an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. This classic reversal formation, aligning with the broader prevailing trend, suggests that a renewed bullish extension from this support zone is highly probable.

From a momentum perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently touched the 39 level. While this is well clear of overbought territory, the indicator is already rebounding from levels just below the neutral mark, signaling that the bullish impulse has substantial room to expand.

The primary upside objective remains the local high of 157.72. The pair has tested this ceiling twice without success; however, current momentum suggests a third attempt may be imminent. Traders should remain vigilant, as a forceful break and close below the 155.80 support zone would effectively invalidate this bullish setup and likely trigger a deeper technical correction.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 156.30

Target price: 157.70

Stop loss: 155.30

Validity: Jan 09, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The technical outlook is further bolstered by the ascending trendline, which converges precisely with this support-resistance flip zone, adding significant weight to the potential for a bounce.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.17728

Entry Price

1.18900

1.17000

1.17349 -0.00125 -0.11%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.17000

Exit Price

1.17728

Entry Price

1.18900

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in an accelerated easing cycle, with traders anticipating at least two additional cuts by the end of September 2026.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its key interest rates for the fourth consecutive meeting. The Deposit Facility remains at 2.00%, while the Main Refinancing and Marginal Lending rates are held at 2.15% and 2.40%, respectively. Gediminas Šimkus, Governor of the Bank of Lithuania, noted that risks to both inflation and growth have increasingly tilted to the downside. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a cautious, data-dependent stance, clarifying that neither hikes nor cuts were discussed as the bank monitors global trade uncertainties. Support Zone Becomes Launchpad for New Impulse_1

Support Zone Becomes Launchpad for New Impulse_1

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has decisively breached the previous resistance level at 1.1752, a ceiling that had held firm since early October. In a classic technical shift, this level is now acting as support, signaling that the prevailing bullish trend is poised for a new impulse.

The technical outlook is further bolstered by the ascending trendline, which converges precisely with this support-resistance flip zone, adding significant weight to the potential for a bounce.

The 100 and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are currently situated at 1.1722 and 1.1654, respectively. Their upward trajectory confirms a dominant bullish momentum. From an oscillator perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently touched a local low of 44, dipping just below the neutral zone before recovering quickly.

Currently sitting at 51, the RSI reflects a healthy market structure with ample room for further upside before reaching overbought conditions. Traders should remain alert, however; a forceful break below the ascending trendline would invalidate this setup and likely trigger a deeper correction toward the moving averages, which would then serve as the primary line of defense.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.1770

Target price: 1.1890

Stop loss: 1.1700

Validity: Jan 09, 2026 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

AUDJPY is trading around the 104.5 area after failing to hold the recent push toward 105.2, with the pullback shaped by Japan’s tightening bias (rate at 0.75%) and year-end positioning that tends to punish crowded risk/carry trades....

SELL AUDJPY

EXP

TRADING

104.400

Entry Price

103.700

105.280

104.730 +0.010 +0.01%

0.0

Pips

Flat

103.700

Exit Price

104.400

Entry Price

105.280

Overview

AUDJPY’s latest downside swing matters because it is not just “random volatility”; it is a repricing of the spread narrative. The RBA cash rate target remains at 3.60% and the next meeting is not until early February, so AUD’s carry appeal is relatively “known” in the near term.

The variable is JPY. After the BOJ’s December move lifting the policy rate to 0.75% (a multi-decade high), the meeting summary showed policymakers actively debating further hikes, which keeps the market sensitive to any hint that Japan’s rate floor is still rising. That shift compresses the “funding currency” logic and makes AUDJPY more vulnerable when liquidity is thin and investors de-risk into year-end.

Rates optics support the story: Japan’s 10Y yield around 2.06% (Dec 29) reinforces the idea that yen assets are no longer anchored near zero in the way they were for years, which changes hedging behavior and the threshold for JPY short-covering.

Market sentiment

Today’s AUDJPY behavior looks like “carry caution” rather than a clean risk-on trend. The drop from the 105.22 area to a 104.36–104.49 print (recent session range/close) signals that sellers are willing to defend highs and force late buyers to exit.

What makes that important is positioning math: when a cross has been grinding higher, many entries cluster near breakout levels (around 105.0–105.2). Once price slips back under that zone, the trade stops being a momentum hold and becomes a “protect profit / cut risk” decision.

In year-end conditions, that decision tends to be fast, and the yen often benefits when traders reduce leverage. Meanwhile, the BOJ narrative is not simply “one hike done”; Reuters reporting highlights internal debate about additional hikes every few months, which keeps JPY dips buyable and caps AUDJPY rebounds.

Technical analysis

AUDJPY slips from fresh highs: BOJ’s hawkish tilt keeps downside pressure in play_1

On M15, treat 105.00–105.22 as the “failed expansion” ceiling from the recent spike. The first tell for a sell-bias is whether price remains below the Bollinger mid-band (20 SMA) after any bounce; if rebounds keep stalling at or just under the mid-band, it implies the move is being sold systematically rather than bought for continuation.

With Ichimoku (9,26,52), the practical question is location versus the Kijun-sen and the cloud: after a sharp pullback, the market often retests Kijun (mean reversion) before choosing direction. If M15 closes keep failing to reclaim Kijun and the cloud acts as overhead supply, that is a high-quality “sell-the-retest” structure because it aligns trend (below balance) with risk control (clear invalidation above the recent high zone).

For Stoch (5,3,3), avoid the trap of selling just because it is oversold. The higher-probability entry is when Stoch recovers from oversold toward mid/high levels but price fails to break above the Bollinger mid-band / Ichimoku balance; that divergence (momentum tries to recover, price can’t) is often where the next impulsive leg down starts.

Trade recommendation

Entry: 104.4

Take Profit: 103.70

Stop Loss: 105.28

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

AGUSD (spot silver) remains elevated near multi-week and all-time highs after a dramatic rally in 2025, with the metal recently trading back above key support levels near $72–$75/oz despite a short-term pullback from record high...

BUY XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

71.800

Entry Price

75.200

70.800

70.779 -5.481 -7.19%

340.0

Pips

Profit

70.800

75.201

Exit Price

71.800

Entry Price

75.200

Market overview

Silver has seen a massive year-to-date rally, trading near $72–$75 per ounce on live feeds, within a 52-week range roughly 28.15–75.15, showing extraordinary strength versus historical norms and approaching record levels again. The recent price action in thin end-of-year liquidity revealed a correction from extreme highs (above $79) into a range downtown around $71–$74 as profit-taking emerged and margin cost hikes pressured leveraged players.

On the M15 chart, this consolidation has formed a higher-low base near the lower part of the current intraday range, suggesting that sellers have not converted pullbacks into new shorts and buyers are stepping in earlier a hallmark of short-term demand dominance.

Market sentiment

Despite a sudden pullback seen in thin holiday liquidity where silver dropped sharply on margin and risk events sentiment retains structural bullish bias as traders revisit metal exposure for both industrial and safe-haven purposes.

Short-term sentiment is cautious but optimistic: declines are treated as consolidation rather than reversal signals, and broad macro forecasts still anticipate upward pressure if support holds and demand (industrial + speculative) resumes. Technical forecasters note that price movement above key moving averages and positive momentum indicators support continuation rather than deep reversal.

Technical analysis

Silver Near All-Time Highs and Rebound Zones Hold_1

On M15, silver is holding above or near the mid-band after the latest pullback. This is a key early bullish signal buyers showing strength at or above the 20-period average typically set the stage for moves back toward or above the upper band. If price sustains above the mid-band with contracted volatility, it suggests accumulation and traction for a rebound to resistance zones.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): The price action oscillates around the cloud but remains relatively above it after corrective dips, indicating that immediate downtrend pressure is not dominant. When price holds above or near the cloud and Tenkan Sen re-crosses above Kijun Sen after a pullback, it reinforces short-term bullish momentum.

Stoch (5,3,3): Stochastic readings on M15 reflect that recent pullbacks took silver toward neutral/oversold territory, and subsequent upward cross signals indicate an early return of positive momentum. This pattern often precedes short-term continuation in strong uptrends especially if buyers prevent lower lows from forming on the chart.

Trade plan

Entry: Initiate BUY near $71.80–$73.00

Take Profit: TP1 $75.20–$75.60

Stop Loss: SL below $70.8

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

BTCUSDT is trading around $87,500–$88,400 USDT, having chopped between roughly $86,800 and $90,400 over the past 24 hours as the market negotiates holiday liquidity and ETF flow ambiguity...

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

TRADING

87000.0

Entry Price

90200.0

86650.0

88487.9 -517.1 -0.58%

0.0

Pips

Flat

86650.0

Exit Price

87000.0

Entry Price

90200.0

Market overview

Live price data places BTCUSDT near $87,500–$88,400 USDT, with the 24-hour trading range concentrated between $86,800 (low) and $90,400 (high) a clear sign of range compression amid holiday season thin liquidity.

The market has been oscillating around this zone, where sellers have repeatedly failed to sustain a decisive breakdown, suggesting the range low holds as a short-term value anchor. Importantly, recent reports indicate that large institutional holders like Strategy are buying significant amounts of Bitcoin again around 1,129 BTC at ~$88,568 each representing nearly $109 million in fresh inflows after a brief dry spell, which underscores strong corporate demand near current price levels.

Market sentiment

Short-term sentiment in Bitcoin markets is nuanced: ETF products have seen notable outflows during Christmas week, with total net spot Bitcoin ETF outflows around $782 million, illustrating holiday positioning and profit taking pressures.

However, this does not necessarily imply a fundamental bearish turn rather, it reflects calendar-driven adjustments where institutional players reduce positions as desks close for the season, with expectations that flows could stabilize once markets reopen.

Additionally, broad risk sentiment has shown intermittent resilience with sporadic rebounds above key round numbers, hinting at latent buyer interest rather than outright capitulation. This blend of thin liquidity pressures and underlying demand sets up asymmetric risk where dips near support attract tactical accumulation on short timeframes.

Technical analysis

BTCUSDT Stabilizes Near $87K After Holiday Ripples_1

On the M15 timeframe, Bollinger Bands (20,2) illustrate a compressing structure with price oscillating near the mid-band not trending but coiling. This often precedes directional resolution; a reclaim above the mid-band with expanding upper band activity would favor upside continuation. Sustained support above the lower band at $86,800–$87,000 will be key for validating the long bias.

Ichimoku (9,26,52) on M15 typically shows price interacting with the cloud during consolidation. A close above the cloud and a Tenkan/Kijun bullish alignment signals building upside pressure. If the cloud transitions from resistance to support, it enhances the bullish edge on dips.Stoch (5,3,3) oscillators are valuable here: a fresh bullish crossover from near the lower region especially with price holding value support often precedes short-term rallies on compressed charts. The best long entries occur when Stoch turns upward while price respects structure rather than anticipating breakouts prematurely.

Trade plan

Entry: Consider BUY around $87,000–$87,300

Take Profit: $90,200

Stop Loss: SL below $86,650

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

XAUUSD (spot gold) remains elevated near $4,300–$4,550 after a tumultuous year where gold rallied sharply, with safe-haven flows and central bank buying lifting prices to historic peaks....

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4324.74

Entry Price

4400.00

4290.00

4282.32 -56.79 -1.31%

752.6

Pips

Profit

4290.00

4400.00

Exit Price

4324.74

Entry Price

4400.00

Market overview

Today’s live pricing shows gold oscillating within a wide range roughly $4,302 to $4,546/oz after retreating from multi-week highs as traders booked profits ahead of year-end and amid easing geopolitical tensions. Spot XAUUSD quotes around $4,330–$4,350 indicate that the market has digested much of the extreme convexity and remains above major dynamic support levels.

On M15, this behavior translates into a consolidation pattern where price respects a local support area near $4,300–$4,310; such structures in an overall uptrend often morph into launchpads for the next leg higher rather than reversing trend entirely. Momentum from the broader daily and 30-minute context suggests buyers still have room to accumulate, especially if price holds above short-term floors.

Market sentiment

Sentiment remains structurally bullish but mixed in the very short term. After gold hit historic levels above $4,500, sharp profit-taking caused a technical pullback a typical mean-reversion move in extended rallies. Market commentary highlights that bullion’s decline has been driven partly by holiday profit-taking and headlines softening safe-haven demand rather than a fundamental shift in gold’s macro drivers.

Longer-term projections including forecasts suggesting gold could rise toward ~$4,550–$4,910 in the next few days reflect persistent bullish conviction from technical models and sentiment indicators, even if short-term sentiment exhibits caution.

The key psychological signal on M15 is that dips have not broken down into deeper range lows with conviction, meaning sellers lack follow-through, which often precedes renewed accumulation by longs.

Technical analysis

On M15, price has recently tested the lower band and mid-band but is finding support above the recent corrective lows. Sustained closes above the mid-line (the 20-period SMA) after pullbacks suggest that short-term downside momentum is waning, and buyers are stepping in to absorb selling near support. If price continues to respect the mid-band as dynamic support, the path toward the upper band becomes more probable.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): The price is oscillating above or near the Ichimoku cloud after corrective dips. A healthy consolidation above the cloud rather than a break below it typically signals that the broader bullish bias is intact on shorter timeframes. A rising Tenkan Sen (conversion line) supporting higher lows reinforces this view.

Stoch (5,3,3): The stochastic oscillator on M15 has recently exited oversold territory and is curling back north, indicating that short-term momentum is pivoting from correction back toward accumulation. A fresh bullish crossover near support zones often precedes renewed short-term upside moves, especially within a broader uptrend.

Trade plan

Entry: Buy near $4,305–$4,325

Take Profit: –$4,400

Stop Loss: SL below $4,290

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

AUD/USD eased from fresh multi-year highs near 0.6730 as investors booked profits, but rising Australian inflation, hawkish RBA expectations and a constructive technical setup continue to favor the upside over the medium term.

BUY AUDUSD

EXP

TRADING

0.67004

Entry Price

0.71000

0.66500

0.66869 -0.00087 -0.13%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.66500

Exit Price

0.67004

Entry Price

0.71000

The Australian Dollar lost some momentum during the European session on Monday, with AUD/USD retreating toward the 0.6700 handle after touching an over-one-year high of 0.6727 earlier in the day. The pullback reflects a classic bout of profit-taking following weeks of strong gains rather than a decisive shift in market sentiment, as the broader macro backdrop continues to tilt in favor of the Aussie.

The retreat comes at a time when the US Dollar is trading with little conviction. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major peers, hovered around the 98.00 mark, underscoring a lack of strong directional drivers ahead of key US policy signals. Currency markets are largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Tuesday, which could provide fresh insight into the Federal Reserve’s thinking on the path of interest rates.

Aussie strength underpinned by inflation and RBA expectations

Despite Monday’s modest pullback, the Australian Dollar has been one of the standout performers in recent weeks. The rally has been fueled by growing confidence that the Reserve Bank of Australia may ultimately need to maintain a tighter policy stance for longer — and potentially even consider rate hikes in 2026 — if inflation pressures prove sticky.

Those expectations were reinforced by the latest inflation data. Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index rose at a faster-than-expected pace of 3.8% year-on-year in October, highlighting persistent price pressures in parts of the economy. While the RBA has maintained a cautious tone, the data strengthens the case that policymakers may be reluctant to pivot dovishly anytime soon. In relative terms, that contrasts with the US outlook, where markets continue to price in a more aggressive easing cycle.

Fed signals vs market pricing

At its most recent meeting, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the benchmark rate to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, and signaled that only one additional rate cut may be delivered in 2026. However, market pricing tells a different story. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently see a 73.3% probability that the Fed will reduce rates by at least 50 basis points in 2026, highlighting a growing divergence between official guidance and investor expectations.

This disconnect has helped cap US Dollar strength and provided breathing room for higher-yielding and growth-linked currencies such as the Australian Dollar. Until that gap between the Fed’s messaging and market pricing is resolved, the greenback may struggle to regain sustained upside momentum.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pullback looks corrective rather than trend-changing. The pair remains in a well-defined bullish structure, characterized by higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. Price action continues to respect an ascending channel, often viewed as a bullish continuation pattern, with shallow pullbacks suggesting strong underlying demand.

Earlier in the rally, AUD/USD consolidated in a key demand zone around 0.6580–0.6600. The subsequent clean breakout from that area signaled accumulation and confirmed bullish intent. More recently, the pair has pushed above prior resistance levels, effectively turning them into support — a classic sign of strengthening momentum.

Momentum indicators also paint a constructive picture. Relative strength measures remain positive, with no clear bearish divergence visible, even as the market flirts with overbought territory. Importantly, price continues to trade above the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA50), reinforcing the view that the short-term trend remains firmly to the upside.

From here, the 0.6700 region represents an important near-term support area, aligned with former resistance and the upper boundary of the prior breakout zone. As long as AUD/USD holds above channel support in the 0.6650–0.6670 range, the broader bullish bias remains intact. A deeper pullback toward the 0.6420–0.6450 area would threaten that outlook, but for now such a move appears unlikely without a major shift in fundamentals.

On the topside, sustained strength could open the door toward the 0.7050–0.7100 region over the medium term, particularly if Australian inflation remains elevated and US rate-cut expectations continue to weigh on the Dollar.