Moving Average and Fibonacci Confluence Strengthens Support Floor

Economic

Forex

Summary:

Because the price is moving closer to this intersection, we will likely begin to see dynamic support develop in this area, and if an immediate upward reaction emerges, it could present favorable buying opportunities.

BUY USDCHF

EXP

PENDING

0.79100

Entry Price

0.80120

0.78700

0.79232 -0.00075 -0.09%

Pips

PENDING

0.78700

Exit Price

0.79100

Entry Price

0.80120

In Switzerland, consumer price data disappointed the market. The Consumer Price Index grew by just 0.2% month-over-month in May, missing the 0.3% expected forecast, while the annual inflation rate remained stuck at 0.6%, landing well below the market consensus of 0.8%. For the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which has been trying to prevent an excessive appreciation of the franc in a low-inflation environment, these numbers should have helped lower the demand for the currency. However, exactly the opposite occurred. The persistent strength of the Swiss franc continues to be a main challenge for the SNB. With its benchmark interest rate set at 0% and inflation tracking near minimum levels, the institution has made it clear that it prefers to intervene in the foreign exchange market rather than return to negative interest rates.

The weak inflation data published on Thursday added weight to the arguments for a more flexible monetary policy ahead of the June meeting and even brought back the possibility of negative rates. Nevertheless, investors looked past these signals and continued to build up positions in Swiss francs. In practice, the market actively went against the central bank's stance, pushing up a currency that keeps gaining value despite the efforts of officials to curb its strength, on a day when the fundamentals seemed to point in the opposite direction.

Meanwhile, in the ambiguous geopolitical landscape, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any Israeli strike against Lebanon or a continuous occupation of its territory would violate the provisional agreement made with the United States. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve started its two-day policy meeting.

The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged while releasing its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which presents its latest forecasts for economic growth, inflation, and the future trajectory of the federal funds rate. Following this decision, the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will lead his very first press conference after the monetary policy announcement, with most investors paying close attention to his initial stance on policy, the central bank balance sheet, and how frequently monetary officials will address the media.

Money markets are currently speculating that the Fed will maintain interest rates steady, pricing in an 80% probability for a pause, while the odds for a rate increase sit at 20%, according to data provided by Prime Terminal. This comes as recent U.S. inflation figures, covering both consumer and producer prices, remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which could prompt the central bank to take policy action. However, the potential end of the war might lead policymakers to keep current interest rates steady for the rest of the year, contrasting with investor expectations from last week that anticipated a rate hike. Moving Average and Fibonacci Confluence Strengthens Support Floor_1

Moving Average and Fibonacci Confluence Strengthens Support Floor_1

Technical Analysis

From a chart perspective, USD/CHF is currently in a corrective phase after experiencing a strong upward impulse that reached a local peak of 0.8012 on June 11. Following this peak, the downward corrective movement is heading toward the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement zone located at 0.7904. This level runs almost perfectly in line with the 100-period Moving Average, which is currently tracking at 0.7908, while the 200-period Moving Average sits a bit lower down at 0.7868. Because the price is moving closer to this intersection, we will likely begin to see dynamic support develop in this area, and if an immediate upward reaction emerges, it could present favorable buying opportunities.

A review of the oscillator section provides secondary cross-verification for this potential turning point. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped quickly and is currently sitting at the 42 level, tracking underneath the neutral zone while showing a divergence compared to previous lower price levels, which suggests that the sellers are losing their downward strength quite rapidly.

At the same time, the MACD indicator is showing a negative histogram that has already lost most of its downward depth, while its signal lines are running just below the neutral zero line. A fresh upward crossover could happen quickly if the price action rejects this active opportunity zone. Inside a technical setup where a positive histogram forms and the signal lines complete an upward cross, the path of least resistance would point back to the upside, keeping the trend-following bias intact.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.7910

Target price: 0.8012

Stop loss: 0.7870

Validity: Jun 26, 2026 15:00:00

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Moving Average and Fibonacci Confluence Strengthens Support Floor

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