Medium- to Long-Term Uptrend Remains Intact, 125.00 Target Expected Within 12 Months

Summary:

AUDJPY is currently trading near 114.35, with the overall structure still firmly positioned within a clear medium- to long-term ascending channel. Against the backdrop of improving global risk appetite, a recovery in the commodity cycle, and Japan’s ultra-loose monetary environment not yet fully reversing, AUDJPY is expected to maintain the trend-driven bullish structure established over the past year.

BUY AUDJPY

EXP

TRADING

114.656

Entry Price

119.850

108.700

113.134 +0.229 +0.20%

0.0

Pips

Flat

108.700

Exit Price

114.656

Entry Price

119.850

Fundamental

As a typical commodity-linked currency, the Australian dollar remains highly sensitive to global growth expectations and overall market risk sentiment. As markets gradually transition into a reflation trading environment, the recovery in industrial metals, energy markets, and Asian demand expectations continues to provide medium- to long-term support for the AUD.

Meanwhile, although the Bank of Japan has begun gradually exiting its extreme easing policies, Japan’s overall interest rate level remains significantly lower than that of other major economies. The issue of persistently low real yields in Japan has not fundamentally changed, meaning the yen still retains its role as a funding currency in global carry trade strategies.

Current market capital flows continue to favor higher-yielding currencies, and the interest rate differential between the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen remains one of the key drivers supporting AUDJPY strength.

In addition, unless global financial markets enter a systemic risk-off phase, the yen is unlikely to sustain a strong appreciation trend. This further reinforces the medium- to long-term bullish outlook for AUDJPY.

Medium- to Long-Term Uptrend Remains Intact, 125.00 Target Expected Within 12 Months_1

Technical Analysis

From a weekly chart perspective, AUDJPY has remained within a rising trend channel over the past year, with both highs and lows continuing to move higher, reflecting a well-structured bullish trend.

Although the pair is currently trading near historical highs, there are still no clear signs of a major trend reversal. Previous pullbacks have repeatedly failed to break key trend support levels, suggesting that medium- to long-term buying momentum remains stable.

From a structural perspective:The 110.00 area has gradually formed a major medium-term support zone;The 112.50–113.20 region represents an important short-term dip-buying area;A confirmed breakout above 116.00 could signal the beginning of another acceleration phase in the broader uptrend.

Based on long-term Fibonacci extension projections and channel analysis, AUDJPY could gradually advance toward the 125.00 region within the next 12 months.

Importantly, despite the substantial gains already accumulated, the current rally still lacks the characteristics of a speculative blow-off move. Instead, the pair continues to display a “slow trend appreciation” structure, which often suggests that the primary trend remains unfinished.

In the short term, AUDJPY may still experience periodic pullbacks alongside fluctuations in the U.S. dollar and broader risk sentiment. However, as long as the medium- to long-term trend structure remains intact, such corrections are more likely to provide fresh buying opportunities.

Overall, AUDJPY remains firmly within a classic trending bullish market structure, and unless global risk conditions deteriorate significantly, the medium- to long-term bullish outlook is expected to persist.

Trade Recommendation

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 114.00

Target Price: 119.85

Stop Loss: 108.70

Valid Until: 2026-06-12 23:55

Support Levels: 113.59, 112.19, 111.31

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