Market Still Has Room to Fall as Supply Discharge Stacks Up with Technical Suppression

Eva Chen

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports have surged amid OPEC+ leadership's competition for market share.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

66.158

Entry Price

62.690

67.900

57.398 +0.165 +0.29%

174.2

Pips

Loss

62.690

67.900

Exit Price

66.158

Entry Price

67.900

Fundamentals

Saudi Arabia is exporting crude oil at the fastest pace in over a year, as the OPEC+ leader continues its strategy to regain global oil market share.

Preliminary tanker tracking data compiled by various agencies indicates that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 441,000 barrels per day in June, reaching 6.36 million barrels per day, a rise of approximately 7%. This surge in exports coincides with OPEC+'s accelerated plan to restore oil production, which benefits consumers.

The data shows that crude oil shipments in the Persian Gulf and its key chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, have remained unimpeded, despite electronic interference affecting regional shipping due to the conflict between Israel and Iran. This trend may indicate a future pattern: actual export growth has surpassed OPEC+ agreement expectations during a period when domestic air conditioning demand in Saudi Arabia typically suppresses crude oil exports. As the alliance considers further production increases, the country may release a larger proportion of its supply after the summer.

Investors should monitor geopolitical developments and inventory data, as these fundamental factors often drive significant price fluctuations in the energy market.

Market Still Has Room to Fall as Supply Discharge Stacks Up with Technical Suppression_1

Technical Analysis

Following a significant correction from its recent peak of US$77.00, WTI crude oil has been trading within a narrow consolidation range, hovering around US$65.39. Market prices have found some support near a crucial level that recently curbed selling pressure.

The energy commodity appears to be stabilizing after testing key technical levels. Price action suggests a potential, albeit limited, recovery.

A clear support zone exists for WTI crude oil near the current level of US$65.50, which constitutes the recent bottom of the decline. This level, coinciding with prior swing lows, is a critical juncture in determining the next price movement.

Sustained breaches below the current level could trigger further downside momentum, while a successful hold could initiate a rebound. The breakdown of this consolidation pattern could equate to the prior decline, approximately US$3.

The Stochastic Oscillator is currently in a neutral zone, suggesting that momentum could shift in either direction. The Relative Strength Index indicates that the commodity has not yet entered oversold territory, but the oscillator has stabilized and appears to be forming a bottom. This suggests that selling pressure may be waning, which, if confirmed by volume support, could lay the groundwork for a counter-trend rally.

However, in terms of trading, we are not bullish on the price increase, as the head and shoulders top pattern has not fully played out, and we recommend continuing to go short at the highs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 66.50

Target Price: 62.69

Stop Loss: 67.90

Valid Until: July 17, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 65.11, 64.55, 63.72

Resistance: 65.90, 66.94, 67.80

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices climbed on Thursday as weaker-than-expected U.S. private sector job data from ADP revived investor hopes for a Fed rate cut later this year.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3340.08

Entry Price

3450.00

3300.00

4303.50 +4.11 +0.10%

400.8

Pips

Loss

3300.00

3299.99

Exit Price

3340.08

Entry Price

3450.00

Gold (XAU/USD) pushed higher on Thursday, recovering from recent lows as investors reacted to a surprisingly soft U.S. labor market print and reassessed the Federal Reserve’s likely response. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading around $3,350 per ounce, supported by renewed demand for safe-haven assets and shifting interest rate expectations.

The move follows the release of the June ADP Employment Change report, which showed that the U.S. private sector lost 33,000 jobs, defying economist forecasts for an increase of 95,000. The unexpected contraction signals a possible slowdown in the labor market and comes just ahead of the more influential Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due later this week. Markets are now recalibrating expectations for Fed policy, with many traders speculating that a September rate cut is increasingly on the table.

For gold investors, the ADP miss couldn’t have come at a more opportune moment. After weeks of sideways price action and consolidation below recent highs, bullion is showing signs of renewed momentum. The disappointing jobs data prompted an immediate bid in safe-haven assets, with gold benefiting both from rate-sensitive flows and a broader risk-off tilt.

While the ADP report is not always a perfect predictor of the official government employment data, it does influence sentiment and often sets the tone ahead of the NFP release. The latest reading reinforces concerns that the post-pandemic labor market resilience may be faltering, particularly under the strain of elevated borrowing costs and slowing business investment.

If Friday’s NFP data confirms a broader hiring slowdown, it could cement expectations for the Fed to begin cutting rates as soon as September, especially if inflation also shows continued moderation. For gold, which thrives in low-rate environments due to its non-yielding nature, the prospect of policy easing represents a significant tailwind.

Despite the market’s growing conviction around a dovish pivot, the Federal Reserve remains measured and cautious. Speaking at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank's data-dependent approach. “It's going to depend on the data, and we are going meeting by meeting,” he said. “I wouldn't take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table. It's going to depend on how the data evolves.”

Powell’s comments suggest that while the Fed is not dismissing the idea of rate cuts, it is far from committed to immediate action. The central bank is keenly aware of the risks of moving too early, especially with inflation still above the 2% target. As such, the path forward remains uncertain and will hinge heavily on the next few data releases—particularly NFP, CPI, and wage growth.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold has reasserted its bullish structure after bouncing off the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in early Thursday trading. This dynamic support level, which had underpinned gold’s recent consolidation phase, acted as a springboard for the latest upside move. The precious metal has now exited a short-term bearish correctional channel, suggesting that the broader uptrend may be ready to resume.

Adding to the bullish case is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has turned higher after previously unwinding overbought conditions. This signals the return of upward momentum without the risk of excessive buying pressure—an ideal setup for trend continuation.

If the bulls maintain control, immediate resistance lies around $3,365, followed by the May highs near $3,400. A decisive break above this zone could open the door for a retest of the all-time highs closer to $3,450. On the downside, initial support sits at the 9-day EMA around $3,325. A break below that would expose the $3,300 psychological level, followed by the 50-day EMA near $3,270.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3340

STOP LOSS: 3300

TAKE PROFIT: 3450

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The MVRV ratio is flattening, indicating insufficient short-term gains and the potential for significant price volatility. BTC price consolidation near US$108,000 reflects investor caution.

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

107445.4

Entry Price

103980.0

110000.0

88118.3 -909.4 -1.02%

2554.6

Pips

Loss

103980.0

110000.0

Exit Price

107445.4

Entry Price

110000.0

Fundamentals

Bitcoin has once again captured the attention of investors as it approaches the US$108,000 threshold, a development that could potentially reshape its market dynamics. Despite the appreciation in value, on-chain metrics such as the MVRV ratio suggest that the asset is poised for its next significant move, following recent volatility.

Specifically, recent on-chain indicators suggest a potential shift in Bitcoin market sentiment. The MVRV ratio, in particular, has stabilized after a period of sharp decline, indicating a consolidation phase following previous fluctuations. This stabilization often signals a potential market re-entry, with investors currently adopting a wait-and-see approach, awaiting further market developments.

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin's current market capitalization stands at $2.14 trillion, supported by a circulating supply of 19.88 million BTC. However, as prices have risen, the 24-hour trading volume has decreased by 12.25% to US$31.58 billion, reflecting investor caution. A volume-to-market cap ratio of 1.47% is considered relatively low, indicating moderate market volatility.

Short-Term Downside Risk Has Increased, Given the Decline in Trading Volume and the Underlying Structural Weakness_1

Technical Analysis

As Bitcoin's price action consolidates within the US$100,000 to US$110,000 range, its weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is steadily ascending towards its upper trendline, fueling optimism for a bullish breakout and potential short-term all-time highs.

Specifically, Bitcoin's weekly RSI is approaching its upper trendline after rebounding from the lower bound of its range in April 2025. Historical data suggests that Bitcoin prices typically peak when the weekly RSI reaches this upper limit.

If Bitcoin's price continues its historical pattern, aligning with the weekly RSI's upward trajectory, it could potentially reach new highs around US$140,000.

However, our analysis indicates that the current upward trend is unsustainable. The short-term strength appears to be a temporary rally, as the market currently exhibits a four-hour bearish structure. Further upward movement is unsustainable unless the bulls can breach the US$108,371 resistance level.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 108,000

Target Price: 103980

Stop Loss: 110000

Valid Until: July 17, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 107236, 106361, 105133

Resistance: 108371, 108816, 109798

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices have risen for a second consecutive day, buoyed by investor optimism that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts later this year and as investors continue to monitor US trade negotiations ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline.

SELL XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

3386.00

Entry Price

3272.00

3425.00

4303.50 +4.11 +0.10%

Pips

EXPIRED

3272.00

3348.10

Exit Price

3386.00

Entry Price

3425.00

Fundamentals

After a 1% increase on Monday, gold prices were in a buying mode on Tuesday, trading above $3,350 during the European session, as traders anticipated a higher likelihood of at least two US rate cuts in 2025.

The uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of Trump's tariff agenda and investors' rush to exit US assets have led to a nearly 11% decline in the US Dollar Index in the first six months of this year, the worst performance since 1973.

Supported by rising trade and geopolitical risks, gold prices have risen by about 25% this year and are currently less than $200 away from the record high set in April. The employment report due on Thursday could also act as a catalyst for the decline in US Treasury yields, a situation typically favorable for gold.

Critical Employment Reports Stir the Market; Can Gold Bulls Set Sail Again?_1

Technical Analysis

Gold prices received buying support on Monday from the one-month low of $3,247, boosted by a weaker US dollar and some short-sellers taking profits after a 5% drop in gold prices over the past two weeks. The strong buying was so robust that it didn't even wait until Monday's close, preventing the bearish monthly close in June that we had anticipated, indicating that the market remains strong.

However, the current buying action is merely a retreat back to the center of the trading range, and we expect the adjustment to continue. We anticipate that range-bound trading will persist until the next range opens.

Within the range, in a bullish scenario, the upside potential is limited after the strong upward movement on Monday and Tuesday, with a short-term target in the $3,286 - $3,400 range.

In a bearish scenario, if the recovery repeatedly fails to break through the $3,400 range, downside risks are still expected to persist, and short-sellers are likely to push the price back towards the recent bottom of $3,270.

As the market awaits the release of key US labor reports this week (JOLTS/ADP/NFP), short-term action may remain relatively calm, with these reports expected to provide the latest updates on the state of the US labor department and subsequently influence the Federal Reserve's rate decisions.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3368/3386

Target Price: 3272

Stop Loss: 3425

Deadline: July 16, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 3310/3295/3283

Resistance: 3368/3382/3387

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Japanese Yen rallied to a two-week high against the US Dollar on Tuesday, with USD/JPY slipping near 143.00 as broad-based dollar weakness intensified amid dovish Fed bets and renewed US–Japan trade friction.

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

143.200

Entry Price

140.000

145.000

155.795 -0.019 -0.01%

180.0

Pips

Loss

140.000

145.003

Exit Price

143.200

Entry Price

145.000

The Japanese Yen extended its gains against the US Dollar on Tuesday, climbing to its strongest level in more than two weeks as traders piled into safe-haven currencies amid growing uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy and renewed signs of strain in US–Japan trade negotiations. The USD/JPY pair fell by nearly 0.70% during the American trading session, sliding toward the key psychological level of 143.00 and highlighting the persistent downward pressure on the Greenback.

The Yen’s appreciation comes despite intensifying trade tensions between Tokyo and Washington, with the Japanese government firmly rejecting renewed American calls to liberalize its agricultural markets. The currency’s resilience, even amid diplomatic friction, points to the broader market narrative: investors increasingly anticipate a more dovish Federal Reserve policy path as US fiscal concerns mount and macroeconomic data begins to soften.

Trade negotiations between the world’s largest and third-largest economies have hit an impasse. US officials, emboldened by political pressure to protect American farmers, have demanded greater access to Japan’s tightly protected agricultural sector—particularly its rice market. Former President Donald Trump reignited the controversy with a characteristically sharp post on Truth Social:

“They won’t take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage. In other words, we’ll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come.”

Japan, however, is standing its ground. Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reaffirmed the government’s red lines in a press briefing, declaring that "agriculture is the foundation of the nation," and Tokyo would not engage in negotiations that would compromise domestic food security. “Our stance remains unchanged,” Akazawa said. “We will not sacrifice the agricultural sector, but we remain open to constructive dialogue that reflects mutual interests.”

This deadlock adds another layer of geopolitical risk to the USD/JPY equation, at a time when the Greenback is already struggling to maintain altitude against its major counterparts.

On the economic front, Japan is showing glimmers of strength. The au Jibun Bank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) returned to expansion territory in June, printing at 50.1—marking the first above-50 reading in 13 months. The recovery was driven by modest improvements in factory output and sustained job creation, although new orders and exports remained soft, reflecting global headwinds and uncertainty surrounding trade policy.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s closely watched Tankan survey revealed a slight improvement in business sentiment among large manufacturers. The index rose to 13 in the second quarter, exceeding expectations of 10 and up from 12 in the prior quarter. While the figures hardly point to a robust boom, they underscore a slow but consistent path to recovery for the world’s third-largest economy.

Still, policymakers remain wary of moving too quickly. Kazuyuki Masu, the newest member of the BoJ policy board, struck a cautious tone in his first public remarks, warning that “underlying inflation remains subdued” and that the central bank “must not rush” to raise interest rates prematurely. His comments signal continuity in the BoJ’s ultra-gradual normalization strategy, especially amid renewed trade uncertainties and lingering global disinflationary pressures.

While the Yen’s relative strength can be partially attributed to improving domestic fundamentals, the overriding driver remains US Dollar weakness. Growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin easing rates as early as September have weighed heavily on the Dollar Index, with softening labor market data and rising political dysfunction in Washington only adding to the bearish case.

Investors are now squarely focused on a crucial slate of upcoming US employment reports. Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change and Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release are expected to provide clearer insight into the strength—or lack thereof—of the US labor market. Any significant downside surprises could further reinforce expectations for a September rate cut and exacerbate the downward momentum in USD/JPY.

Technical Analysis

Technically, USD/JPY continues to exhibit bearish tendencies. The pair has broken below its near-term support at 143.65, weighed down by persistent selling pressure below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Momentum indicators paint a bearish picture as well: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exited overbought territory and is generating fresh negative signals, opening the door to further downside.

Should the bearish bias persist, USD/JPY is likely to test the 142.50–142.00 zone—a key support region last seen in early June. A decisive break below this area could trigger a steeper decline toward the 140.50–140.00 range, particularly if upcoming US data disappoints and the Fed’s dovish pivot gathers pace.

On the upside, any recovery attempts would need to overcome resistance at 144.50, where the 50-day EMA and recent swing highs converge. A break above that level would neutralize near-term bearish risks but would require a strong fundamental catalyst—something currently absent from the US side.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 143.20

STOP LOSS: 145.00

TAKE PROFIT: 140.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Australian Dollar surged to fresh year-to-date highs near 0.6590 on Tuesday, fueled by strong Chinese manufacturing data and growing headwinds for the US Dollar, including debt concerns, Fed rate cut speculation, and trade deal uncertainty.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65750

Entry Price

0.68000

0.65000

0.66481 -0.00039 -0.06%

75.0

Pips

Loss

0.65000

Exit Price

0.65750

Entry Price

0.68000

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its rally on Tuesday, climbing to fresh year-to-date highs against the beleaguered US Dollar (USD) and reversing earlier losses amid a backdrop of improving Chinese economic data and deepening US macroeconomic woes. The AUD/USD pair is now trading around 0.6590 — its highest level in 2024 — marking a second straight day of gains as the greenback continues to retreat.

While the Aussie’s strength has largely tracked risk sentiment and Chinese macro signals, the latest leg of this rally appears to be fueled more by USD-specific vulnerabilities. A growing chorus of investor concerns — from soaring US debt and delayed trade agreements to a dovish shift in Federal Reserve expectations — has set the stage for a broad pullback in the Dollar, which is struggling to find support even amid heightened global uncertainty.

Helping to amplify the AUD’s momentum, economic data out of China — Australia’s largest trading partner — offered a welcome surprise. Fresh figures released early Tuesday showed that Chinese manufacturing activity returned to expansion in June, confounding forecasts and marking a stark rebound from Monday’s softer NBS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. The improvement in private-sector metrics helped restore confidence in China’s economic resilience and further cemented the Australian Dollar’s appeal as a China-proxy play.

In particular, Australian exporters — whose prospects are closely tied to Chinese demand — stand to benefit from renewed momentum in the Chinese factory sector. This cyclical tailwind has helped lift the AUD, reinforcing technical and sentiment-driven support for the currency even as broader markets remain cautious.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to suffer under the weight of mounting macro pressures. First, fiscal policy is once again in focus as former President Donald Trump’s controversial tax package edges closer to approval. The bill, projected to add over $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the coming decade, has spooked investors already wary of America’s ballooning deficit. As a result, demand for USD-denominated assets has weakened, and yields have moved erratically as markets reprice long-term risks.

In parallel, speculation over the Federal Reserve’s rate path continues to build. Traders are now pricing in a growing probability of interest rate cuts starting in the second half of the year. Weakness in recent US economic prints, including lackluster job growth and slowing inflation, has added fuel to this narrative. But all eyes now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to speak at the ECB’s central banking forum in Sintra, Portugal later today. His comments may help clarify the timing and scale of potential rate adjustments, with any dovish tone likely to reinforce selling pressure on the greenback.

Compounding these concerns is the lack of meaningful progress on trade deals as the July 9 deadline approaches. Despite negotiations, no major breakthroughs have materialized, and the threat of additional tariffs looms large. For now, investors are pricing in an increased risk premium on the Dollar, making higher-yielding, risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar more attractive by comparison.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD continues to exhibit bullish characteristics on the short-term chart. After briefly consolidating, the pair has regained upward traction, building on support from its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), which remains firmly below price action.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) had entered overbought territory during the latest leg higher but is now offloading excess froth through minor intraday pullbacks, offering bulls a chance to reload. The primary trend remains upward, and analysts see further room for appreciation if key resistance levels are broken.

Immediate upside targets include 0.6620 — a psychological and technical resistance zone — followed by a potential test of the 0.6670–0.6700 range, which served as a critical ceiling during previous rallies in late 2023. If momentum holds and Powell’s remarks lean dovish, a broader push toward 0.6750 or even 0.6800 could unfold over the coming weeks.

On the downside, initial support lies at the 9-day EMA near 0.6540, while the 50-day EMA at 0.6490 would offer deeper structural support. A break below these levels would weaken the bullish bias but remains unlikely unless US macro surprises turn significantly in favor of the Dollar.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6575

STOP LOSS: 0.6500

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6800

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Japan's Final Manufacturing PMI Prints at 50.1 Amid Fragile Demand; BoJ Tankan Shows Economic Resilience, Keeps 2025 Rate Hike Option Alive.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

142.888

Entry Price

147.410

141.500

155.795 -0.019 -0.01%

85.6

Pips

Profit

141.500

143.744

Exit Price

142.888

Entry Price

147.410

Fundamentals

Japan's final manufacturing PMI for June came in at 50.1, up from May's 49.4. Despite increases in production and employment, underlying demand remains weak.

Annabel Fiddes of S&P Global notes that companies reported continued declines in domestic and overseas sales, reflecting the ongoing impact of global uncertainties, particularly US tariff policies.

Despite the weak demand, business confidence has improved, encouraging firms to boost output and hiring. However, Fiddes emphasized that "sustained improvement in consumer demand" is still needed to drive a broader economic recovery.

Price pressures have also "edged up," with input costs and selling prices both above long-term averages, indicating that inflation risks remain present in the supply chain.

Moreover, Japan's Q2 Tankan survey revealed that the overall index for large manufacturers stood at +13, exceeding the expected 10 and reaching the highest level since December 2024. Their forward-looking outlook for September was +12, also surpassing the expected 9. The service sector, however, showed a more mixed performance. The large non-manufacturing index remained stable at +34, in line with expectations, but this was a decline from previous readings, with the September outlook dropping to +27.

Nevertheless, capital expenditure plans surprisingly rose: large firms anticipate an 11.5% increase in capital spending for the 2025/26 fiscal year (expected at 10.0%), while small firms were slightly less pessimistic than expected. Investment data indicates a growing market confidence in the domestic economic recovery.

Inflation expectations have remained largely stable. Firms expect the CPI to rise by 2.4% over the next year and three years, unchanged from the last survey and slightly lower.

Despite escalating trade tensions, business confidence has remained robust. Although today's Tankan results are unlikely to trigger an immediate market reaction, they leave room for the BOJ to adjust its rate hike policy by year-end, especially as trade risks stabilize.

From 50.1 to +13 – Assessing Japan's Manufacturing PMI and Tankan Impact on Markets_1

Technical Analysis

The outlook for USDJPY remains unchanged as range trading persists. The intraday trend maintains a neutral stance.

On the upside, if USDJPY can hold the resistance level at 148.01, it will reignite the rally from 139.87 and break through the 61.8% retracement of the 158.86 to 139.87 decline, which is at 151.22. However, a break above 142.10 would signal further downside movement, with the pair potentially retesting the low at 139.87.

With the completion of the head-and-shoulders top pattern on the daily chart structure, the market is poised for a significant rebound.