Is the Silver Direction Determined on the Eve of the CPI Release?

Tank

Commodity

Economic

Forex

Technical Analysis

Summary:

Similar to gold, the weakness in silver is also linked to the uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. tariffs on imported silver. Last week, silver prices surged as traders digested rumors of tariffs on kilogram-grade silver, but as the long-term implications became clearer, the upward momentum diminished.

SELL XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

37.800

Entry Price

36.400

38.500

58.003 -0.314 -0.54%

70.0

Pips

Loss

36.400

38.500

Exit Price

37.800

Entry Price

38.500

Fundamentals

Similar to gold, silver's weakness is also linked to the uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. tariffs on imported silver. Last week, silver prices surged as traders digested rumors of tariffs on kilogram-level silver imports, but the upward momentum waned as the long-term implications became clearer. Market participants are awaiting the issuance of an executive order from the White House clarifying the policy, leading to a more than 2% decline in silver futures. This move could directly impact global silver liquidity, especially if refined silver imports are also affected by the policy. An additional catalyst is the upcoming release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Widespread market expectations are for core inflation to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, pushing the annual rate to 3%, still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Weak data could diminish expectations of rate cuts, limiting silver's rebound. Conversely, soft data might provide the necessary justification for the market to push silver prices back above US$38.

The July CPI is expected to remain elevated, primarily driven by tariff impacts. The results will directly influence market pricing for a potential Fed rate cut in September and the number of rate cuts anticipated in 2025. Currently, the market assigns nearly a 90% probability to a rate cut in September, with expectations of up to three cuts next year. If CPI data remains moderate or shows signs of a new inflation slowdown, it could reinforce dovish expectations for the Fed, potentially weakening the dollar and supporting gold prices. Conversely, if inflation exceeds expectations and remains sticky, it could temper rate cut expectations, strengthen the dollar, boost U.S. Treasury yields, and dampen risk sentiment.

Is the Silver Direction Determined on the Eve of the CPI Release?_1

Is the Silver Direction Determined on the Eve of the CPI Release?_2

Technical Analysis

The silver price, in the 1D timeframe, shows Bollinger Bands contracting, with SMAs gradually flattening and prices oscillating around the middle band, indicating a potential trend reversal. The MACD histogram's upward momentum is waning, with the MACD line and signal line converging near the zero axis. The RSI stands at 53, not indicating overbought conditions. If the price cannot accelerate through the previous high of 39.53, a pullback may occur. Support levels are identified at the previous low and key psychological levels of 36.2 and 36, respectively. A swift breakout above these levels could open upward potential, with resistance at the 40 mark and the possibility of reaching 50. In the 1M timeframe, the MACD line and signal line have crossed near the zero axis and continue to ascend, while the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, and the SMAs are diverging positively. This indicates that the bullish momentum remains robust, and the overall trend is still upward. The trading strategy is to initiate short positions initially, followed by long positions.

Trading Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 37.8

Target Price: 36.4

Stop Loss: 38.5

Support: 36.8, 36.2, 35

Resistance: 38.5, 39.4, 40

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Tank

Commodity

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Trump also posted yesterday, vowing not to impose tariffs on gold. With this, the market finally realized that the U.S. never had any intention of taxing gold all along, leaving investors hoarding gold in New York since February thoroughly disappointed. Gold inventories at COMEX in New York have also been continuously declining since April.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3350.00

Entry Price

3280.00

3400.00

4195.03 -2.88 -0.07%

72.4

Pips

Profit

3280.00

3342.76

Exit Price

3350.00

Entry Price

3400.00

Fundamentals

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet this week in Alaska, the first face-to-face meeting between the leaders of the two major powers since Putin met with Biden in Geneva in 2021. It is widely believed that the upcoming talks could be a step toward ending the full-scale military conflict in Ukraine that began in 2022. The anticipation of the talks is easing geopolitical tensions, which is reflected in the downward trend of gold prices. At the same time, after the White House "Clarified" the gold tariff rumors, Trump posted yesterday, promising not to impose tariffs on gold. With this, the market finally understood that the U.S. never had any intention of taxing gold from the beginning. This left investors who have been stockpiling gold in New York since February thoroughly disillusioned, and gold inventories at COMEX in New York kept declining from April. As New York futures prices surged and then pulled back, London spot prices also moved lower accordingly. This round of bearish momentum is likely to continue for some time.

Trump also declared a public safety emergency in Washington, D.C. yesterday, reflecting tensions between the ruling party and the Democratic leadership in the capital. Rising risk aversion boosted both U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, while U.S. stocks saw a brief decline.

Technical Analysis

Reflected in the daily chart, gold is forming a triangular consolidation between the Bollinger Upper and Lower Bands, oscillating within the range of 3248 to 3452. The MACD bullish histogram is gradually shrinking, a signal of a potential bearish divergence. The RSI is at 49, not yet in oversold territory. If gold fails to hold above 3328 in the short term, it may further decline toward the Bollinger Lower Band and previous support levels at 3280 and 3120. However, if it can consistently hold above the Bollinger Middle Band, it may rally up to 3500 or even the psychological level of 4000. Additionally, the daily highs are getting lower, another bearish signal that needs further caution regarding the possibility of a significant downward move. Regarding the weekly chart, the MACD lines are pulling back toward the zero axis but remain relatively far from it, indicating that the consolidation is not yet complete. The RSI stands at 59, not in overbought territory. Overall, there is a high probability that the adjustment will continue toward the Bollinger Middle Band or the EMA50 level, around 3230 and 3000, respectively. Thus, selling at highs is better.

Investors Duped Again as Gold Tariffs Announced Canceled_1

Investors Duped Again as Gold Tariffs Announced Canceled_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 3350

Target price: 3280

Stop loss: 3400

Support: 3300/3280/3120

Resistance: 3400/3439/3500

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The clean breakout above 4,000 earlier this month further reinforces the bullish scenario.

BUY ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

4230.70

Entry Price

4400.00

4100.00

3125.61 +24.00 +0.77%

1693.0

Pips

Profit

4100.00

4400.00

Exit Price

4230.70

Entry Price

4400.00

Ethereum (ETH) has overtaken Bitcoin (BTC) in year-to-date performance for 2025, buoyed by surging institutional demand and strong inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to the cryptocurrency.

Market data compiled by several sources shows that ETH reached $4,311.58 on Monday, posting a 29% gain so far this year. In comparison, BTC traded at $120,020.83, up around 28% year-to-date.

This milestone comes after Ethereum surpassed the $4,000 mark for the first time in eight months. The last time ETH traded above this level was on December 16, 2024, when it hit $4,107. The latest rally has been fueled by growing interest from digital asset treasury (DAT) firms, which are adding ETH to their reserves—a strategy that mirrors the well-known corporate accumulation of BTC championed by Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy.

At the same time, U.S.-listed spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded notable inflows in recent weeks. Over the past month alone, ETH ETFs have attracted nearly $5 billion in net inflows, surpassing their Bitcoin-based counterparts.

A recent report by research firm Bernstein, published Monday, highlights Coinbase’s emerging role as a strategic ally in Ethereum’s ecosystem expansion. The analysis notes that Coinbase has strengthened its footprint through its Layer 2 network, Base, while holding a substantial ETH treasury. Since June 5, ETH has risen 80%, driven partly by the U.S. listing of Circle (CRCL) and broader recognition that most stablecoins are issued on the Ethereum network.

Base processes over 9 million daily transactions involving stablecoins, financial applications, and consumer services. Although it lacks a native token, transaction fees are paid in ETH—allowing Coinbase, as the network’s transaction sequencer, to generate an estimated $75 million in annualized revenue.

On August 11, 2025, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin appeared on the Bankless podcast hosted by Ryan Sean Adams and David Hoffman, reflecting on Ethereum’s first decade. He discussed milestones in DeFi, NFTs, and DAOs, as well as challenges such as the DAO hack and persistent delays in scalability. Buterin emphasized privacy, L1–L2 economic alignment, and emerging technologies like ZKVMs, projecting a resilient, globally relevant Ethereum for the next decade—balancing its cypherpunk roots with mainstream adoption. Bullish Momentum Could Regain Speed_1

Technical Analysis

Ethereum recently hit a local high near 4,368 before entering a corrective pullback. Price action now appears to be finding support along an ascending trendline, with renewed demand emerging from this level. If this buying interest holds, ETH could quickly stage another leg higher toward the 4,400 mark, especially as institutional accumulation continues to absorb supply. The clean breakout above 4,000 earlier this month further reinforces the bullish scenario.

On the 30-minute chart, the 100-period moving average (MA) is positioned at 4,241 and the 200-period MA at 4,093. A decisive close above the 100-MA could accelerate upside momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dipped to 25, entering oversold territory—a condition that could invite a swift return of buyers.

Conversely, a breakdown below the trendline would shift focus toward the 200-MA as a potential secondary support. If that level fails, short-term bullish momentum could stall, delaying any attempt at retesting recent highs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 4224

Target price: 4400

Stop loss: 4100

Validity: Aug 22, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Canadian dollar is under pressure amid weakening crude oil prices, which hover near two-month lows as optimism about Ukraine peace talks sparks hopes for eased Russian energy sanctions.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.37900

Entry Price

1.38800

1.37200

1.38429 +0.00282 +0.20%

11.7

Pips

Profit

1.37200

1.38017

Exit Price

1.37900

Entry Price

1.38800

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is struggling to find footing on Monday, slipping against the US dollar (USD) amid a subdued trading environment marked by depressed crude oil prices. The USD/CAD pair has climbed to intraday highs around 1.3770, reflecting a combination of bearish sentiment toward the Loonie and cautious US dollar strength. However, overall market activity remains relatively muted as traders await key US inflation data later this week.

At the heart of the Canadian dollar’s weakness lies the persistent slump in crude oil prices, which have fallen to their lowest levels since early June. Brent crude recently traded near $77 per barrel, retreating on renewed hopes that diplomatic progress in the ongoing Ukraine peace negotiations could lead to a rollback or easing of Western sanctions on Russian energy exports. Such developments would risk a surge in global oil supply, exerting further downward pressure on prices.

For Canada — a major crude oil exporter — oil price dynamics are a critical driver of the Loonie’s fortunes. The Canadian economy’s heavy reliance on energy exports means that sustained weakness in crude prices typically translates into a softer Canadian dollar, as investors adjust their outlook for Canada’s trade balance and economic growth.

Despite efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers to limit supply, the prospect of Russian sanctions being lifted or eased has cast a shadow over the market. As a result, the Loonie remains vulnerable in the near term, with traders reluctant to commit to a bullish stance until the oil market stabilizes.

On the flip side, the US dollar is attempting to regain some ground after recent soft patches, buoyed by increasing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will pivot to easing monetary policy before the end of the year. Investors are now pricing in an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, followed by at least one more before December.

Fed officials have contributed to these dovish expectations. Last Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman emphasized labor market softness, citing signs of cooling that could warrant rate reductions. Similarly, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard downplayed the inflationary impact of tariffs, signaling less urgency for aggressive rate hikes.

However, while these dovish signals have capped the dollar’s upside, they also place significant importance on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release on Tuesday. The consensus forecast anticipates an acceleration in consumer price inflation, which, if confirmed, could dampen hopes of imminent Fed easing and bolster the US dollar.

Market participants are thus bracing for volatility around Tuesday’s data, which will serve as a litmus test for the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory in the coming months.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD appears poised for further upward movement. The pair recently formed a classic triple bottom reversal pattern, successfully breaking above its neckline resistance and currently retesting this level for support — a bullish signal that often precedes a price rally.

Key technical levels to watch include a pivot point at 1.3687, with initial support at 1.3563. On the upside, resistance is expected around 1.3880. Traders should monitor the pair’s behavior around the neckline retest closely, as a confirmed bounce could open the door to a sustained upward trajectory toward resistance levels.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3790

STOP LOSS: 1.3720

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3880

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Swiss franc weakened on Monday as investors favoured risk assets and positioned ahead of key U.S. inflation data, while the dollar advanced on optimism over a potential U.S.-China trade agreement.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.81150

Entry Price

0.81700

0.80600

0.80787 +0.00332 +0.41%

55.0

Pips

Loss

0.80600

Exit Price

0.81150

Entry Price

0.81700

The Swiss franc slipped on Monday as market sentiment tilted cautiously toward risk-taking, while the U.S. dollar strengthened across major currencies ahead of a pivotal U.S. inflation report and renewed hopes for progress in U.S.-China trade talks.

In the absence of major economic releases to start the week, traders have turned their attention to two significant events looming on the horizon: the conclusion of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, and Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) release.

Negotiators from the world’s two largest economies are working against a deadline set for next Tuesday to extend the current trade truce. Without a deal, triple-digit tariffs could return, reigniting volatility in global trade flows. According to U.S. officials, Washington is pushing for Beijing to commit to substantially increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products and advanced technology exports — a move aimed at reducing America’s long-standing trade deficit with China. However, the talks have been complicated by Beijing’s expressed security concerns over the H20 Nvidia chip, a high-performance processor with potential dual-use applications.

Optimism surrounding the talks has helped the dollar retain a firm footing, as investors shy away from placing large bearish bets on the greenback ahead of clarity on both trade and inflation. The U.S. CPI report is forecast to show headline inflation accelerating to 2.9% year-on-year in July from 2.8% in June. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is also projected to edge higher to 3.0% from 2.9%. Stronger-than-expected readings could reinforce the view that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer, lending further support to the dollar.

The Swiss franc’s underperformance was compounded by geopolitical and trade headwinds. U.S. President Donald Trump announced one of the steepest tariff hikes yet on Swiss exports — a 39% levy — targeting a range of goods in what analysts view as a significant blow to Switzerland’s export-driven economy. The move threatens to erode the country’s competitive position in global markets and may dampen demand for the traditionally safe-haven CHF.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF price action is converging into a symmetrical triangle formation, a classic consolidation pattern that often precedes a decisive breakout. The narrowing range of lower highs and higher lows suggests mounting pressure for a directional move.

The immediate resistance zone lies within the 0.80966–0.80888 range. Price action has recently breached this ceiling, pointing to a potential bullish continuation. A sustained move above this zone could confirm an upward breakout, paving the way toward the next target at 0.8170

Short-term momentum indicators remain supportive of further gains, though traders will likely await Tuesday’s CPI report before committing to large directional positions. A strong inflation print could catalyse a decisive move higher in USD/CHF, while a miss might trigger a pullback toward the lower trendline of the triangle.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8115

STOP LOSS: 0.8060

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8170

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices slid on Monday as fading safe-haven demand and improving investor risk appetite weighed on the metal, with markets focusing on US-Russia diplomacy and upcoming Federal Reserve policy moves.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3355.00

Entry Price

3310.00

3400.00

4195.03 -2.88 -0.07%

100.8

Pips

Profit

3310.00

3344.92

Exit Price

3355.00

Entry Price

3400.00

Gold (XAU/USD) started the week under pressure, slipping nearly 1.3% on Monday as investors shifted away from safe-haven assets in favor of riskier bets. The move comes amid optimism that fresh diplomatic overtures between Washington and Moscow could ease geopolitical tensions, while a buoyant equities market draws capital away from bullion.

During the European session, spot gold traded around $3,350 per ounce, retreating from last week’s repeated—but ultimately unsuccessful—attempts to breach the $3,400 psychological barrier. The pullback follows a volatile week for the metal, where bulls failed to sustain momentum despite supportive macroeconomic conditions.

The geopolitical backdrop took a potentially constructive turn late last week when US President Donald Trump announced he would meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15 to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. The announcement boosted global risk sentiment, prompting investors to reallocate capital into equities and higher-yielding assets, pressuring demand for gold.

While easing geopolitical stress can dent gold’s safe-haven appeal, analysts caution that downside pressure may be tempered by shifting expectations for US monetary policy. Markets are increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing an 88% probability of such a move.

Signs of a cooling US labor market have reinforced the case for a more accommodative stance, keeping both the US dollar and Treasury yields subdued—factors that historically lend support to non-yielding assets like gold.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold opened Monday’s trading with a corrective move toward $3,350, holding within a broader bearish framework. The metal has been leaning on the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) for intraday support, preventing deeper losses so far. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into oversold territory—arguably to an exaggerated degree given the magnitude of the price decline—suggesting that a short-term rebound may be possible if sellers begin to take profit.

A decisive break below $3,350 could pave the way for a decline toward $3,330 as the next downside target. If selling pressure accelerates, bears could push the metal to $3,310—seen as a key corrective zone from which a technical rebound might emerge.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3355

STOP LOSS: 3400

TAKE PROFIT: 3310

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The market has been buoyed by a favorable development as President Trump signed an executive order on retirement savings. The document instructs the Department of Labor to prepare for the inclusion of cryptocurrencies, private equity, and other alternative assets in 401(k) retirement plans.

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

119683.3

Entry Price

136927.0

110630.0

90271.7 +309.7 +0.34%

9053.3

Pips

Loss

110630.0

110590.0

Exit Price

119683.3

Entry Price

136927.0

Fundamentals

Bitcoin has broken through the $120,000 mark today, poised to set a new all-time high. The surge is driven by a significant policy shift in Washington. Last Thursday, President Trump signed an executive order allowing the inclusion of cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets in 401(k) retirement accounts. In theory, this decision could unleash trillions of dollars in retirement funds for Bitcoin and other digital assets, thereby bolstering their long-term demand prospects.

According to Bitwise, corporate treasuries and ETFs have purchased 371,111 BTC so far this year, which is 3.75 times the amount mined by miners during the same period.

Retail investors have also begun to accumulate Bitcoin. Glassnode reports that wallets holding as much as 100 BTC are purchasing approximately 17,000 BTC per month, exceeding the current issuance rate of 13,850 BTC. The rapid decline in liquidity on over-the-counter trading platforms has exacerbated this situation, potentially triggering a significant price surge in Bitcoin.

Market dynamics indicate that a strong short squeeze is underway, as the substantial liquidity pool near the current price level forces bearish traders to buy at higher prices. This adds fuel to the already rapid upward momentum. As the upward trend accelerates, short sellers appear increasingly vulnerable.

Liquidity Squeeze and Surge in Buying Pressure Propel Bitcoin Bulls to New Heights_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is poised to break through the $123,231 mark and extend its Fibonacci retracement from $111,889 to $127,390 to the 61.8% retracement level of $136,927, based on the range from $98,418 to $123,231.

The current rally from $111,889 may represent the fifth wave of the entire upward movement that began at $74,373. According to Elliott Wave Theory, the third wave is almost always the strongest and cannot be the shortest of the three waves. Therefore, there is a reasonable upper limit to the upside potential below the 100% forecast level at $136,927.

The medium-term channel resistance near $131,580 reinforces this potential upper limit. The $130,000 area will be a key inflection point to contain the current rebound.