Increased Geopolitical Tensions Consolidate Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices held below the four-week highs touched earlier on Tuesday. The intraday decline was driven by the emergence of some dollar buying, which tends to weaken demand for gold.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3355.67

Entry Price

3500.00

3299.00

4341.62 +42.23 +0.98%

566.7

Pips

Loss

3299.00

Exit Price

3355.67

Entry Price

3500.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices retreated on Tuesday, partially reversing Monday's gains, yet remained elevated amid renewed trade concerns. Resurfacing trade anxieties and escalating geopolitical tensions bolstered gold's safe-haven appeal.

Trump's prior threat to double tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% starting Wednesday prompted retaliatory statements from Canada and the EU. Concurrently, heightened geopolitical tensions following Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia solidified gold's status as a safe-haven asset, supporting prices.

This recent gold price surge is primarily driven by multiple factors. Given that the bullish drivers are largely structural, a continued strong performance from gold is probable. Current price trajectories suggest that gold is nearing its previous all-time high of US$3,500.

Increased Geopolitical Tensions Consolidate Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal_1

Technical Analysis

Technically, gold prices are more likely to continue and approach or even break through the highest level of US$3500.

Following yesterday's rally, the price action is currently forming a bullish flag pattern. A breakout from this pattern is anticipated to generate significant upward momentum, with a potential to surpass the recent high of US$3,438, nearing the all-time high.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3348

Target Price: 3500

Stop Loss: 3299

Valid Until: June 18, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3349, 3343, 3329

Resistance: 3391, 3415, 3439

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

Recently, the situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified, leading to a surge in the safe-haven demand for gold and further driving up its price.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3362.41

Entry Price

3490.00

3295.00

4341.62 +42.23 +0.98%

674.1

Pips

Loss

3295.00

3294.98

Exit Price

3362.41

Entry Price

3490.00

Fundamentals

Recently, the vicious cycle of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict has been systematically pushing up the safe-haven premium. The weekend raid by Ukraine on the Belaya base in Siberia, Russia, destroyed more than 40 military aircraft, triggering Russia's drone retaliation against the Murmansk region. The two sides have fallen into a tactical escalation of "stopping the bombing with bombing". More crucially, the Istanbul peace talks broke down due to fundamental differences in the ceasefire conditions and the exchange of prisoners of war. The EU simultaneously launched the 18th round of energy sanctions, and the geopolitical risks have spread from local confrontations to supply-chain disruptions. This uncertainty has forced global capital to accelerate its inflow into gold. Historical experience shows that at the beginning of the conflict in 2022, the gold price soared from 1,800 to 2,000. Now, the current intensity of the conflict has exceeded the Crimea crisis model, with even stronger safe-haven momentum.

Meanwhile, Trump's tariff policy is reshaping the global stagflation logic. Starting from June 4th, the US steel tariff will double from 25% to 50%, directly triggering an EU anti-countermeasure warning. Citibank's calculations suggest that this move will push up the US PCE inflation by 1.9 percentage points, increasing each household's annual expenditure by $3,800. The combination of this "imported inflation" and weak economic data forms a typical stagflation scenario: the US manufacturing PMI has contracted for four consecutive months in May, falling to 48.5, and factory orders have recorded the largest decline since 2020. When growth slows down and inflation remains high, gold becomes one of the very few assets that can hedge against both risks simultaneously. The fact that gold ETFs saw a single-week inflow of 83.4 tons in April, a five-year high, is clear evidence.

Technical Analysis

The Flames of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Ignited the Fuse of Safe-Haven Demand, Gold Heads Towards $3,500_1

Based on the daily chart, gold's long bullish candlestick broke through the previous daily trading range and effectively breached the $3,365 resistance level, further extending the upward space. The next upward target will be the $3,437 resistance level. If gold can maintain its strength and breakthrough $3,437, it is likely to hit its all-time high of $3,500.

At present, after breaking through the $3,365 resistance level, gold began to adjust downward from $3,385. If gold shows a signal of stabilizing its decline on the 1H chart, a new round of upward trend will unfold. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and a stable rebound before buying.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 3350.00

Target price: 3490.00

Stop loss: 3295.00

Valid Until: June 17, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 3323.00/3271.00

Resistance: 3392.00/3437.93

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

As the price approaches the upper range, it could attract sellers, as the price has rejected this area multiple times in the past, and this could repeat once again.

SELL EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.57150

Entry Price

1.56450

1.57400

1.61473 -0.00177 -0.11%

25.0

Pips

Loss

1.56450

1.57400

Exit Price

1.57150

Entry Price

1.57400

In the Eurozone, the manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery on Monday, with the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 49.4 in May, up from 49.0 in April, marking a 33-month high. While the markets interpreted the data as a possible sign that the sector could be emerging from its previous recession, the reading still remains below the growth threshold of 50.0, indicating that expansion has yet to be fully achieved.

The upcoming meeting between Germany's new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and U.S. President Donald Trump may further influence sentiment toward the EURCAD. Discussions surrounding transatlantic relations, trade policies, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine are likely to impact market expectations regarding the stability of the Eurozone economy and geopolitical alignment within Europe.

Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting will provide fresh economic forecasts and offer some insights into the bank’s outlook on interest rates. Recent guidance has been relatively cautious, with a 25-basis-point rate cut fully priced in and widely expected. With markets anticipating at least one more 25-basis-point reduction by December, the risk lies in a more neutral or hawkish cut that may signal the potential end of the easing cycle.

Recent PMI data has also provided additional support for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), as Canada’s manufacturing activity showed a slight improvement, although it remains in contraction.

S&P Global’s Canadian Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.1 in May, up from 45.3 in April, indicating that the sector has remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. While markets had previously leaned toward a rate cut, a stronger-than-expected 2.2% GDP growth for the first quarter has shifted the consensus toward maintaining the current policy rate of 2.75%. According to Reuters, investors now see a 75% probability that the BoC will keep rates unchanged.

Derek Holt of Scotiabank has firmly opposed the idea of any near-term rate cuts in a recent post titled, "No way the BoC should cut in the short term, if at all." He highlighted persistently high core inflation, even before the full impact of tariff-related supply shocks are felt. "Despite a slight excess of capacity, other forces are keeping core inflation elevated and persistent," he noted. Bullish Pressure Could Take Control from the Upper Range_1

Bullish Pressure Could Take Control from the Upper Range_1

Technical Analysis

EURCAD is currently trading within a range, finding support at 1.5578 and resistance at 1.5715, with some higher and lower peaks but consistently returning to this range since mid-May without breaking decisively in either direction. As the price approaches the upper range, it could attract sellers, as the price has rejected this area multiple times in the past, and this could repeat once again.

The RSI has reached a level of 71.72, entering overbought territory, which may signal a potential pullback from this zone. A possible target for this pullback could be the 100-period and 200-period moving averages, which sit at 1.5637 and 1.5639, respectively, very close to each other in the middle of the range. Additionally, this zone coincides with the 0.618 and 0.50 Fibonacci retracement levels, which are often targeted during corrections. Conversely, if the price breaks decisively above the upper range, it could trigger a new bullish leg to the upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.5715

Target price: 1.5645

Stop loss: 1.5740

Validity: Jun 13, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

AUDUSD recently reached a local high near the 0.6500 level, but from this point, the price has encountered downward pressure.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64834

Entry Price

0.64500

0.65100

0.66459 -0.00061 -0.09%

33.4

Pips

Profit

0.64500

Exit Price

0.64834

Entry Price

0.65100

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President, Austan Goolsbee, reiterated his belief on Monday that the U.S. central bank will likely be able to reduce short-term borrowing costs once the "dirt in the air" surrounding tariff policies clears up.

"If we can get through this rough patch, the dual mandate looks quite promising," Goolsbee said in an interview during a webcast with the Quad Cities Regional Business Journal in Davenport, Iowa. The Fed’s dual mandate refers to its two primary objectives: achieving full employment and maintaining price stability. Goolsbee expressed continued confidence that, assuming the economy remains on track and tariffs are not as aggressive as initially anticipated on April 2, the Fed will likely reduce its policy rate significantly within the next 15 months.

Meanwhile, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan struck a cautiously balanced tone in previous remarks, acknowledging ongoing inflationary pressures while highlighting the growing uncertainty in the market.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with U.S. President Donald Trump. Powell reaffirmed that the Fed’s monetary policy decisions are driven by measurable economic data from the U.S. economy. For several months, Trump has been vocal on social media, urging the Fed to implement substantial rate cuts. A low-rate environment would reduce the cost of federal debt, which is expected to grow substantially due to Trump’s fiscal policies over the next decade.

On Friday night, President Trump shook up the markets by announcing a doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, raising them from 25% to 50%. Investors have become wary of the potential negative impact such tariffs could have on U.S. economic growth and inflationary pressures.

Beyond this, the U.S. president further poisoned an already fragile trade relationship with China, accusing Beijing of violating an agreement regarding minerals. Chinese authorities dismissed the accusations as "baseless" and warned of retaliatory actions.

In Australia, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI revealed that sector activity continued to grow in May, though at a slower-than-expected pace. These figures support the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance last week and provide some support for the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Australia's April Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday, showed a stable reading of 2.4% year-on-year, matching March's figure and surpassing the forecast of 2.3%. These numbers remain within the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. Markets are still pricing in a potential rate cut at the RBA's upcoming July meeting, following the recent reduction in Australia's Cash Rate to 3.85% during the May 20 meeting.

The RBA is expected to adopt a less dovish tone in the coming months, with some analysts predicting that the central bank will return to a more neutral monetary policy stance. However, the National Australia Bank (NAB) has raised its forecast for the terminal rate to 3.1%, up from the previous 2.6%. Selling Pressure Could Intensify as Psychological Level Is Reached_1

Selling Pressure Could Intensify as Psychological Level Is Reached_1

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD recently reached a local high near the 0.6500 level, but from this point, the price has encountered downward pressure. The 100-period and 200-period moving averages currently sit at 0.6450 and 0.6441, respectively, which are close to the 0.618 and 0.50 Fibonacci retracement levels. This zone could act as a magnet for a potential price retracement. Furthermore, this area previously served as a significant resistance level. If it now turns into support, it could provide the impetus for another bullish move.

The RSI recently hit a level of 70.87, entering overbought territory. This could indicate a potential reduction in bullish momentum. However, the RSI has reached higher values during previous price increases, signaling that there is no divergence. This suggests that the overall upward momentum has not yet come to an end, though a minor pullback could occur before the next move higher.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6482

Target price: 0.6450

Stop loss: 0.6510

Validity: Jun 10, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Concerns over tariffs have boosted safe-haven demand, driving gold prices sharply higher on Monday. Technical formations suggest that gold bulls are now targeting historic highs.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

3325.00

Entry Price

3450.00

3279.00

4341.62 +42.23 +0.98%

Pips

EXPIRED

3279.00

3357.76

Exit Price

3325.00

Entry Price

3450.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices surged by 2% on Monday as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset amid escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed tariff threats. The situation was exacerbated by the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, compounded by President Trump's renewed threat to double tariffs on European steel and aluminum imports.

On Friday, Trump announced plans to increase tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, prompting the European Commission to warn of retaliatory measures.

Given the resurgence of trade and geopolitical concerns, it was not surprising to see gold prices open higher this week. Hostilities between Ukraine and Russia escalated ahead of the second round of peace talks in Istanbul, with both sides launching a series of attacks, including one of the boldest strikes by Ukraine in the conflict and a drone attack by Russia overnight. Risk assets opened lower this week, while the decline in the U.S. dollar also provided support for gold prices.

Investors are now closely monitoring key U.S. macroeconomic data scheduled for release early this week, starting with the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on Monday. Additionally, remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could influence the trajectory of the U.S. dollar and create short-term trading opportunities in the commodities market.

Gold Prices Eye Historic Highs After Breaking Out of Triangle Pattern_1

Technical Analysis

Gold prices opened strongly on Monday and successfully broke above the upper boundary of the triangle consolidation pattern before the start of the European session, preliminarily confirming the continuation of the upward trend.

With the initial confirmation of the directional signal, the inverse head and shoulders pattern is expected to continue playing a role. We anticipate that the asset will make another run for new highs and potentially target historic levels after a brief consolidation, with an initial target in the $3,450 range.

Note: Given the significant potential for pullbacks following the intra-day price surge, the key entry levels are relatively broad. Investors are advised to adopt a light-position trading strategy.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 3325/3318

Target Price: 3450

Stop Loss: 3279

Deadline: June 17, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 3336/3316/3278

Resistance: 3365/3397/3414

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold prices climbed over 2.5% on Monday, trading above $3,350, as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid renewed US-China trade tensions and a weakening US Dollar.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3365.75

Entry Price

3445.00

3300.00

4341.62 +42.23 +0.98%

97.5

Pips

Profit

3300.00

3375.50

Exit Price

3365.75

Entry Price

3445.00

Gold prices rallied sharply on Monday, surging more than 2.5% intraday to reclaim territory above $3,350 per ounce, as market sentiment tilted toward caution following a sharp escalation in trade tensions between the United States and China. Investors, spooked by renewed threats of tariffs and retaliatory measures, sought refuge in the traditional safety of precious metals, pushing gold to its highest levels in weeks.

At the core of the shift in investor appetite lies a fresh wave of geopolitical friction. Former U.S. President Donald Trump ignited market jitters late last week after vowing to double tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, raising the rate from 25% to 50%. The move, presented as a response to what he alleged was a flagrant breach of a key trade agreement by Beijing, sent shockwaves through global markets already grappling with interest rate uncertainty and weakening macroeconomic indicators.

In a Truth Social post on Friday, Trump accused China of "totally violating" the Geneva trade pact signed earlier this year. The now-endangered agreement had momentarily calmed markets by establishing a 90-day truce on tariff escalations. It included reciprocal concessions, such as the US slashing tariffs on Chinese goods from a punitive 145% to 30%, and China paring down its own levies from 125% to just 10%. Perhaps more critically, the accord compelled Beijing to lift restrictions on the export of strategic minerals — materials pivotal to US tech and defence sectors.

But that fragile détente has rapidly deteriorated. China’s Ministry of Commerce responded over the weekend with a blistering statement, rejecting Trump’s claims as "groundless" and accusing Washington of escalating tensions through unilateral and discriminatory actions. These, the Ministry said, included sweeping export controls on advanced AI semiconductors, a sales ban on chip design software, and even the revocation of Chinese student visas in high-tech fields. In a clear warning, Beijing pledged to take "resolute and forceful measures" if provoked further.

This breakdown in diplomacy, coupled with a sudden deterioration in US-China relations, has sent global equities wobbling and ignited renewed demand for gold. The yellow metal, which thrives during times of uncertainty, has reasserted itself as the safe-haven asset of choice, with investors looking to hedge against both geopolitical turmoil and a softening dollar.

Compounding gold’s upward momentum is the concurrent weakness in the US Dollar. The greenback came under broad-based pressure as the market weighed the likelihood that an escalation in the trade war could ultimately crimp US economic growth and delay any hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve. The resulting downturn in yields and the dollar’s diminished appeal has further opened the runway for gold to climb.

From a technical perspective, the structure in gold remains bullish. Price action is carving out a clear upward trajectory within an ascending channel, defined by dynamic support (yellow trendline) and resistance (black trendline). The metal recently broke above a notable swing high, a move often interpreted as a bullish breakout signal.

Technical Analysis

A detailed chart analysis suggests the breakout is not merely a short-term reaction, but a continuation of a broader bullish structure. Following the break above $3,350, a minor retracement toward the breakout zone in the $3,366–$3,347 region is plausible. Should this zone hold, it would likely act as a springboard for the next leg higher, targeting a medium-term resistance range of $3,434 to $3,445.

The breakout is also being confirmed by rising momentum indicators and increasing volume, adding credibility to the case for a sustained uptrend. If macroeconomic uncertainty persists — particularly around the trajectory of US-China relations or the Fed’s next move — gold may find itself well-supported for the foreseeable future.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3366

STOP LOSS: 3300

TAKE PROFIT: 3445

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The euro appreciated against the dollar on Monday, with EUR/USD recovering to 1.1370 amid investor angst over President Trump’s unexpected plan to double steel and aluminum tariffs.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.14397

Entry Price

1.17000

1.13100

1.17316 -0.00078 -0.07%

161.4

Pips

Profit

1.13100

1.16011

Exit Price

1.14397

Entry Price

1.17000

The euro staged a sharp rebound in early Asian trading Monday, with EUR/USD climbing to 1.1370 after a bruising week, as investors digested a wave of headlines that threaten to drag U.S. trade diplomacy and legal authority into deeper uncertainty. The catalyst: President Donald Trump’s declaration that the U.S. will double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, raising them from 25% to 50%, in a bid to fortify the domestic steel sector and send a clear signal to foreign producers—particularly those in Europe and China.

Speaking at a campaign-style rally in Pennsylvania on Friday, Trump said, “We are going to bring it from 25% to 50% — the tariffs on steel into the United States of America — which will even further secure the steel industry in the United States,” according to Reuters. The announcement was made against a backdrop of mounting legal scrutiny over the administration’s prior tariff moves and has led to renewed fears of a transatlantic trade war.

The market’s reaction was swift and pointed. The U.S. dollar came under significant pressure, weighed by both protectionist overhang and Thursday’s ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade in Manhattan, which found that Trump had exceeded his authority in previous tariff measures. A three-judge panel stated that the executive orders issued on April 2 were unlawful—potentially undermining the legal foundation of future tariff escalations.

In response, the European Commission issued a stern warning on Saturday, vowing swift retaliation should the U.S. move forward with the new levies. Brussels has already been navigating a fragile truce with Washington, after agreeing to expedite trade negotiations in June, hoping to avoid a tariff showdown. But that ceasefire now appears to be fraying.

“Europe is ready to respond proportionately,” said an EC spokesperson, without detailing what form the retaliation might take. Analysts, however, believe agricultural and technology products from the U.S. could be targeted, reviving the specter of a tit-for-tat tariff cycle that markets had hoped was behind them.

The combination of Trump's confrontational stance and legal rebukes has shaken investor confidence in the dollar, which had previously drawn support from strong economic data and a “higher for longer” Federal Reserve outlook. Now, with trade risk resurging and legal uncertainty clouding the White House’s economic authority, the greenback is vulnerable to sentiment-driven swings.

Compounding the dollar’s weakness, the Federal Reserve remains constrained by persistent inflationary pressures and sluggish consumer spending, making it difficult to respond to external shocks without risking policy credibility.

On the European side, the euro found additional support from measured optimism within the ECB, despite mixed inflation signals. Governing Council member Klaas Knot acknowledged the “murky” inflation outlook but maintained that the ECB will proceed cautiously. Meanwhile, François Villeroy de Galhau added that “policy normalization in the Euro area is probably not complete,” suggesting room for further rate action should inflation persist or economic stability demand it.

These remarks have subtly shifted rate expectations in the eurozone's favor, especially when juxtaposed against a politically hamstrung U.S. policy backdrop.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD has reclaimed lost ground, breaking above Resistance 1 at 1.1425, signaling a continuation of the bullish leg within the short-term upward channel. The 4-hour RSI and moving average patterns mirror previous upward cycles, which saw gains of around +2.58% before retracements.

Given this structure, 1.1700 emerges as a realistic short-term target, assuming follow-through momentum and no further risk-off shocks. However, the 1.1450–1.1500 area could offer intermediate resistance, especially if U.S. economic data surprises to the upside or if the EU’s retaliatory rhetoric escalates into formal policy action.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.4400

STOP LOSS: 1.1310

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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