Head and Shoulders Top Pattern Breakdown Targets 140.00!

Forex

Summary:

The Bank of Japan has maintained its current interest rate. However, recent weak economic and employment data from the U.S. have increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. This divergence in monetary policy between the two countries may exert downward pressure on the USDJPY.

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

144.582

Entry Price

140.800

145.600

155.074 -0.271 -0.17%

101.8

Pips

Loss

140.800

145.602

Exit Price

144.582

Entry Price

145.600

Fundamentals

Today, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced its monetary policy decision, maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and slowing the pace of its government bond purchase reduction to mitigate potential market instability. Despite market expectations for further policy adjustments, Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference remarks were cautious, emphasizing continued rate hikes if economic and price conditions improve, without specifying a timeline.

Although the BOJ's decision held rates steady, the likelihood of further rate hikes in Japan is gradually increasing amid persistent inflation, with the yen's policy advantages becoming more apparent.

In the U.S., recent economic and employment data have been weak, dampening expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates this year, and increasing market bets on a September rate cut. Coupled with escalating global trade concerns, the U.S. Dollar Index has weakened, trading near a three-year low.

Overall, the divergence in monetary policy paths between Japan and the U.S. is evident. Even with the BOJ's unchanged stance, the narrowing interest rate differential driven by the Federal Reserve remains the primary factor driving the USDJPY lower, intensifying the downward pressure on the currency pair.

Technical Analysis

Head and Shoulders Top Pattern Breakdown Targets 140.00!_1

In the 1D timeframe, the USDJPY initiated a bullish rebound after establishing a bottom at 140.00. However, recent price action reveals a pattern of lower highs, indicating diminishing bullish momentum and an increasing probability of a decline. Furthermore, the recent price action has consistently been capped by the MA60, which further elevates the likelihood of a short-term downturn.

Head and Shoulders Top Pattern Breakdown Targets 140.00!_2

In the 4H timeframe, the USDJPY has formed a head and shoulders top pattern. If the price action continues to weaken below the right shoulder at 145.10, the head and shoulders top pattern will be validated. The initial downside target could be a test of the 140.00 support level. A breach of this support level would likely trigger a more significant downward movement.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 144.80

Target Price: 140.80

Stop Loss: 145.60

Valid Until: July 1, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 142.47, 140.00

Resistance: 145.46, 146.27

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This could signal the beginning of a downward correction, with potential downside extending toward the 0.5988 area.

SELL NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.60600

Entry Price

0.59900

0.60900

0.57840 +0.00086 +0.15%

46.0

Pips

Profit

0.59900

0.60140

Exit Price

0.60600

Entry Price

0.60900

The Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) in New Zealand dropped sharply to 44.0 in May, down from April’s 48.1. This marks the lowest reading since June 2024 and signals a fourth consecutive month of contraction, reinforcing concerns over persistent weakness in the country’s service sector.

In Asia, fresh data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed that retail sales rose by 6.4% year-over-year in May, beating both the forecasted 5.0% and April’s 5.1% increase. However, industrial production came in slightly below expectations, climbing 5.8% annually versus the projected 5.9% and the previous month’s 6.1%. The mixed data raised questions about the sustainability of China’s post-pandemic recovery momentum.

Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced a tentative framework agreement aimed at lowering tariffs and easing restrictions on rare earth trade. Despite the headlines, market response remained subdued due to the vague details of the agreement and lingering doubts over its long-term effectiveness.

Adding to the cautious mood, concerns over U.S. economic resilience resurfaced following disappointing data from the New York Federal Reserve. The Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to -16.0 in June from -9.2 in May, significantly missing expectations of -5.5. This marked the weakest print since March’s two-year low of -20.0 and highlighted growing strains in regional factory activity, increasing fears of a broader economic slowdown.

Geopolitical tensions also remained in focus. President Donald Trump reiterated the United States’ strong backing of Israel, stating on Sunday that while he hopes for peace between Israel and Iran, “they’ll have to fight it out.” According to reports, Trump declined an Israeli proposal to target Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reaffirming his preference to avoid direct U.S. military involvement—at least for now.

On the inflation front, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for May pointed to further signs of softening price pressures. Headline PPI rose by 2.6% year-over-year, in line with expectations and slightly above April’s 2.5%. However, core PPI—which strips out volatile food and energy components—fell to 3.0% from 3.2%, reinforcing the view that underlying inflation is gradually cooling.

This data followed weaker-than-expected CPI figures earlier in the week, boosting market confidence that the Federal Reserve could move toward a rate cut as soon as September. With inflation slowing and economic growth showing signs of fatigue, expectations for a more dovish monetary policy have risen. In turn, this has supported gold prices, as lower real yields typically benefit the non-yielding metal. A Bearish Correction Looms After Key Resistance Rejection_1

A Bearish Correction Looms After Key Resistance Rejection_1

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, NZD/USD appears to have found strong resistance near the 0.6080 level, where the pair has reacted with bearish candlesticks on the one-hour chart. This could signal the beginning of a downward correction, with potential downside extending toward the 0.5988 area. The 100-period and 200-period moving averages are located at 0.6037 and 0.6011, respectively, providing room for a short-term pullback before the pair defines a clearer trend on higher timeframes.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently touched 66, approaching the overbought threshold. This suggests that bullish momentum may be weakening. A break below the nearest moving average—specifically the 100-period—could accelerate the downward move toward the next support level. Should price fail to reclaim higher ground, this rejection zone could mark the beginning of a deeper corrective phase.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6060

Target price: 0.5990

Stop loss: 0.6090

Validity: Jun 20, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

The RSI has reached the 70 mark, entering overbought territory while forming a bearish divergence. This could be interpreted as a warning signal of a potential downside reversal, which may accelerate the pair’s retreat.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.15766

Entry Price

1.14950

1.16200

1.16542 +0.00116 +0.10%

14.8

Pips

Profit

1.14950

1.15618

Exit Price

1.15766

Entry Price

1.16200

Fresh concerns over the U.S. economy weighed on the dollar after the latest New York Fed data showed a deeper contraction in regional manufacturing activity. The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell sharply to -16.0 in June, down from -9.2 in May and well below market expectations of -5.5. This marked the weakest reading since March's two-year low of -20.0, highlighting deteriorating momentum in the factory sector and adding to fears of a broader regional slowdown.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed Washington’s strong support for Israel, stating on Sunday that although he hopes for a resolution between Israel and Iran, “they’ll have to fight it out.” Trump reportedly rejected a proposal from Israeli leadership to strike Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, emphasizing his current stance of keeping the United States from becoming directly involved in the escalating conflict—at least for the time being.

On the economic front, the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for May offered further signs that inflation may be softening. Headline PPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, aligning with economists’ expectations and marginally above April’s figure of 2.5%. However, the core PPI—which excludes food and energy—slipped to 3.0% from 3.2%, reinforcing the notion that underlying price pressures are beginning to ease.

Following the weaker-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) data earlier in the week, this latest PPI report strengthened market sentiment that the Federal Reserve could consider a rate cut as early as September. With inflationary pressures easing and growth showing signs of fatigue, the odds of a dovish policy pivot have increased. Lower interest rate expectations typically serve as a tailwind for gold, which tends to shine in environments where real yields are falling due to its non-interest-bearing nature.

In Europe, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel struck a cautious tone in his remarks on Monday at the Frankfurt summit. He warned against prematurely signaling an end to rate cuts or committing to a pause, citing ongoing uncertainties—particularly related to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While inflation appears to be nearing the central bank’s target, Nagel emphasized the importance of maintaining a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.

Adding to the cautious narrative, fresh data from Eurostat showed that wages across the eurozone rose 3.4% year-over-year in Q1 2025, decelerating from the 4.1% increase in the previous quarter. This represents the slowest pace of wage growth since Q3 2022 and may offer some relief to the European Central Bank as it continues to navigate a delicate balance between softening inflation and sluggish growth. A Bearish Correction May Be Brewing Beneath the Surface_1

A Bearish Correction May Be Brewing Beneath the Surface_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD once again faced selling pressure near the 1.1614 level, where bearish candlestick formations have started to emerge. The pair now appears vulnerable to a pullback toward the next support zone around 1.1495. This area is notably close to the 100- and 200-period moving averages on the 1-hour chart, currently positioned at 1.1515 and 1.1466, respectively—creating a potential magnetic zone for price action.

Additionally, the RSI has reached the 70 mark, entering overbought territory while forming a bearish divergence. This could be interpreted as a warning signal of a potential downside reversal, which may accelerate the pair’s retreat. However, if EUR/USD manages to decisively break above the 1.1614 resistance level, it could pave the way for the continuation of the prevailing bullish trend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1573

Target price: 1.1495

Stop loss: 1.1620

Validity: Jun 20, 2025 15:00:

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Ethereum prices are undergoing a pullback and may retreat to $2,500 before another upward correction. The potential for a golden cross in Ethereum prices may signal strong buying momentum. Timing and market conditions are crucial for the next move.

BUY ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

2551.70

Entry Price

3285.00

2270.00

3130.81 +103.85 +3.43%

2817.0

Pips

Loss

2270.00

2269.69

Exit Price

2551.70

Entry Price

3285.00

Fundamentals

Last week, Ethereum prices broke through the previous high of $2,788 before experiencing another pullback. This pullback occurred against the backdrop of strong selling pressure following a successful breakout.

Recently, Ethereum prices have seen a volatile market within the range of $2,400 to $2,800. Despite significant price fluctuations, market sentiment remains optimistic. The pullback is viewed as a necessary measure to gain more liquidity before the next rally. The strong support above $2,400, evidenced by long-term investors' buying on dips, underscores this point.

On the fundamental front, increased whale activity on the Ethereum network may serve as a positive indicator for the cryptocurrency's future trajectory. A report from Santiment reveals that Ethereum whales held a total of 1.49 million ETH, valued at $38.26 million, over the past 30 days. This indicates a 3.72% increase in the total holdings of investors with 1,000 to 100,000 ETH.

The increase in whale activity is considered a bullish signal, as these large holders typically accumulate assets in anticipation of long-term price appreciation. These whales are lining up to prepare for the next significant price surge, which may propel Ethereum prices to break through previous resistance levels.

Although Ethereum's trading prices have primarily fluctuated between $2,400 and $2,800, the substantial increase in whale activity suggests that the cryptocurrency is laying the groundwork for future price appreciation. Despite a 2.38% decline in Ethereum prices over the past 30 days, the outlook remains optimistic.

Data indicates that US investors are aggressively buying Ethereum, as evidenced by the substantial growth in Ethereum ETFs. According to SoSoValue, Ethereum spot ETFs have recorded inflows for five consecutive weeks. Last week, these funds saw cash inflows of $528 million, compared to $281 million the previous week. This growth has brought the total net inflows to $3.85 billion, with the total assets held by these funds now exceeding $10 billion.

Bullish Outlook Despite Bearish Daily Cross_1

Technical Analysis

A golden cross occurs when the MA50 moves above the MA200, a classic bullish signal in technical analysis. For Ethereum, this formation has historically led to significant price surges. The last time ETH formed this pattern, it soared by approximately 35% within just three weeks, highlighting its importance to investors.

Currently, the MA50 and MA200 of Ethereum prices are rapidly converging. If Ethereum prices hold the current support level and trading volume maintains upward momentum, a golden cross is likely. However, key resistance zones and macroeconomic conditions remain critical.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 2553

Target Price: 3285

Stop Loss: 2270

Deadline: July 01, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 2492/2408/2325

Resistance: 2738/2788/2880

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Pound Sterling holds steady near 1.3590 against the US Dollar as traders brace for interest rate decisions from the Fed and BoE this week.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36002

Entry Price

1.37500

1.35100

1.33404 +0.00092 +0.07%

90.2

Pips

Loss

1.35100

Exit Price

1.36002

Entry Price

1.37500

The Pound Sterling traded narrowly higher near 1.3590 against the US Dollar on Monday, hovering within the tight range established last Friday, as global investors adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of crucial monetary policy decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England later this week. Sentiment in the GBP/USD market remains subdued, reflecting widespread caution driven by not only domestic economic signals but also growing geopolitical turbulence.

Market expectations for both the Fed and the BoE point toward a status quo outcome, with no change in interest rates. Yet, investors are fully aware that the guidance accompanying those decisions could significantly sway expectations for the months ahead. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to maintain its federal funds rate within the current 4.25%–4.50% range. However, the central bank’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, particularly the dot plot, is likely to be the key driver for USD sentiment this week. Traders will be seeking clues on whether the Fed plans to keep policy tight well into 2025, especially as it grapples with conflicting signals from inflation data and a shifting fiscal landscape under President Donald Trump’s new economic agenda.

Fed policymakers have been cautious in recent commentary, suggesting that inflationary risks remain and that monetary easing is not yet on the table. Officials appear hesitant to move until they gain more visibility on how Trump’s economic plans — including tax cuts and trade protectionism — will affect consumer prices and broader economic momentum. While headline inflation has cooled, core measures remain sticky, prompting the Fed to advocate patience. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, softened slightly to around 98.00 on Monday, providing some room for the Pound to stabilise.

Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England faces its own balancing act. Markets largely expect the BoE to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% during Thursday’s policy meeting. The central bank’s May decision, which included a 25-basis-point cut, was framed as part of a “gradual and careful” approach to policy easing. However, whether that message will be reiterated this week is uncertain, especially after recent data revealed a softening UK labour market. Job growth has slowed markedly in the three months ending April, suggesting that the post-pandemic hiring boom may be losing steam.

A key factor behind the cooling in employment appears to be fiscal in nature. In April, Chancellor Rachel Reeves enacted an increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions, raising them from 13.8% to 15%. The higher payroll tax burden has prompted many businesses to curb hiring plans, adding to concerns that tighter fiscal policy could amplify headwinds in the UK’s economic recovery. With inflation still not firmly anchored and wage pressures easing, the BoE could strike a more cautious tone, even as it opts to hold rates steady.

Investors will also pay close attention to UK inflation data due Wednesday. The May Consumer Price Index report is forecast to show a further moderation in price growth, consistent with the BoE’s view that inflationary pressures are easing gradually. If confirmed, soft CPI data could bolster the case for the BoE to continue its measured path toward policy normalisation. However, any upside surprise would likely inject volatility into GBP pairs and complicate the central bank’s messaging.

Beyond monetary policy, geopolitical developments are increasingly weighing on investor risk appetite. Tensions between Israel and Iran have flared once again, injecting renewed uncertainty into global markets. Over the weekend, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned that attacks on Iranian territory could escalate if Iran continues missile launches against Israeli targets. In an interview cited by Euronews, Katz declared, “Tehran will burn if it keeps launching attacks on Israel.” Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz — a vital conduit for global oil shipments — raising the risk of energy supply disruptions. According to Reuters, Israeli military forces have already destroyed over a third of Iran’s surface-to-surface missile launchers, further intensifying the conflict.

The broader market mood has shifted into risk-off territory as a result, with investors retreating from risk-sensitive assets like the Pound Sterling. Historically, sterling tends to underperform in times of geopolitical stress, particularly when safe-haven flows boost the US Dollar.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair continues to trade within a bullish structure. A rising trendline remains intact, underpinned by a series of higher lows that suggest the current price action is more of a consolidation than a reversal. Key support is seen around the 1.3500 level, which served as a strong base during previous consolidation phases.

A successful retest of this level may attract fresh buying interest if market sentiment stabilises post-central bank decisions. On the upside, immediate resistance lies around 1.3610 — the previous swing high — followed by 1.3650 and 1.3750, the latter marking a key psychological zone and the upper bound of the current bullish channel.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3600

STOP LOSS: 1.3510

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3750

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Australian Dollar surged on Monday, lifted by improving investor risk appetite and a softening U.S. Dollar, as market fears of a broader Middle East conflict subsided.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65498

Entry Price

0.66250

0.64800

0.66434 +0.00051 +0.08%

69.8

Pips

Loss

0.64800

Exit Price

0.65498

Entry Price

0.66250

The Australian Dollar regained its footing on Monday, climbing firmly above the 0.6500 level as traders responded to an improved market mood and signs of diminishing geopolitical risk in the Middle East. AUD/USD rose by around 0.45% intraday, making the Aussie one of the top-performing G10 currencies, underpinned by a combination of risk-on sentiment and a weakening U.S. Dollar.

The sharp rebound in the Aussie followed several days of market anxiety driven by escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. Although the two nations continued to exchange fire for a fourth consecutive day, global markets took solace in the absence of further escalation. Crucially, Iran has not moved to close the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic chokepoint for global oil flows. That development alone eased fears of a broader regional conflict that could have forced the U.S. to become militarily involved, which would have triggered a significant flight to safety.

Investor relief was further supported by efforts from multiple global powers to de-escalate the crisis. China and Russia have both offered to mediate, and former U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly pressuring both countries to reach a ceasefire. While these diplomatic overtures remain in early stages, they have helped to pull risk assets, including the Australian Dollar, off recent lows.

Still, the geopolitical backdrop remains fragile. Iran's Foreign Ministry revealed that the national parliament is preparing a bill to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a move that would significantly escalate tensions with the West. Despite this development, traders appear to be discounting its immediate market impact, focusing instead on the relative calm in the Strait of Hormuz and the absence of further military escalation.

Beyond geopolitics, data from China presented a mixed picture. On the one hand, headline consumer inflation came in above expectations, indicating that domestic consumption may be recovering in Australia’s largest trading partner. That’s typically a bullish signal for the Aussie, which is highly sensitive to China’s demand dynamics. However, industrial production figures disappointed, falling short of expectations and suggesting that China’s recovery remains uneven. This mixed macroeconomic backdrop limited the degree of fundamental support for AUD/USD, though it was not enough to derail the broader upward move.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar continued to retreat across the board, weighed down by declining Treasury yields and softer expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path. With markets still digesting last week’s mixed U.S. inflation data and weighing the odds of a September rate cut, the greenback has struggled to regain traction. In the absence of new hawkish signals from the Fed, high-beta currencies like the Australian Dollar have found room to appreciate.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair is exhibiting a clear bullish structure, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. Monday’s advance marks a continuation of that trend, and current price action suggests the pair may be forming a bullish consolidation pattern above the 0.6500 level. This setup typically precedes further upward extension if near-term support levels hold.

The immediate support sits around 0.6465, a level that previously acted as a consolidation base. A dip toward this zone could attract renewed buying interest and reinforce the uptrend. If the pair manages to sustain momentum above this level, it may retest resistance areas around 0.6570 and 0.6590, with a possible extension toward 0.6625 in the coming sessions. However, a daily close below 0.6465 would challenge the bullish thesis and could spark a deeper pullback, shifting near-term sentiment toward a more neutral or even bearish tone, with targets near 0.6445 and 0.6400.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6550

STOP LOSS: 0.6480

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6625

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Middle East Situation

Summary:

Gold prices surged to $3,452 on Monday before retreating. The strength in gold prices reflects the heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a broad-based US dollar weakness.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3404.64

Entry Price

3287.00

3475.00

4211.84 +13.93 +0.33%

181.5

Pips

Profit

3287.00

3386.49

Exit Price

3404.64

Entry Price

3475.00

Fundamentals

During the Asian session on Monday, gold prices attracted some buying interest, breaking strongly through the $3,450 mark. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East and increasing expectations for a Fed rate cut propelled gold prices to their highest level in over a month.

Since the weekend, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, sparking concerns over broader geopolitical ramifications in the region. In this environment of waning risk appetite, capital is flowing into defensive assets like gold. The market currently believes that if the conflict between Israel and Iran further escalates in the coming days, gold prices could reach new all-time highs.

Since the close on Friday, gold prices have recorded their best closing price since April 21 and have formed a bullish candlestick pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently trending upward, indicating that strong bullish momentum is building, and prices are expected to continue rising over the next few trading days. If gold prices break through $3,500, it will open up further upside potential, potentially reaching $3,600.

However, we believe that gold prices' failure to continue rising after Monday's gap-up opening and their subsequent retreat during the European session indicates that the market's heightened emotions have been digested. Meanwhile, investors' attention is shifting to this week's Federal Reserve meeting.

Although the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady, investors will closely monitor any forward guidance on rate cuts, especially after the US released weaker-than-expected inflation data, which has further reinforced market expectations that the Fed could ease policy as early as September.

Additionally, market participants are awaiting the specific details of President Trump's next round of tariffs. Reports indicate that the White House is preparing to implement these trade measures in the coming weeks. These measures are key to assessing the overall economic outlook and also provide more trading opportunities for gold's trajectory.

Geopolitical Impact Dully Digested; Focus Shifts to Fed Rate Decision_1

Technical Analysis

Amid the escalation of weekend geopolitical conflicts, gold's safe-haven demand surged, causing prices to gap up on Monday and test the seven-week high of $3,452.

The strength in gold prices has buoyed market sentiment. Judging from the recent statements from both sides, we can assume that tensions may ease slightly but remain elevated, which will temporarily cap further upside in gold prices.

Although the technical picture on the daily chart remains firmly bullish, the upward momentum may slow due to some profit-taking and the stochastic indicator entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, gold prices' breakout above the May 7 high of $3,438 aligns with the structural transformation of a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern. Once this pattern is completed, the market may revert to a downward trend.