Gold Rebounds Above $4,560: Bulls Ride Weaker Dollar, but Fed-Risk Still Caps the Upside

Commodity

Summary:

Gold rose more than 1% today as the U.S. dollar weakened and oil prices dropped on renewed optimism around a possible U.S.–Iran deal, easing part of the inflation-rate pressure that hurt gold last week.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

4559.98

Entry Price

4600.00

4538.00

4570.60 +60.94 +1.35%

0.0

Pips

Flat

4538.00

Exit Price

4559.98

Entry Price

4600.00

Market Overview

On 25/05/2026, gold is recovering strongly from last week’s pressure. Reuters reported spot gold reaching $4,557.46 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose to $4,558.80. WSJ also reported New York gold futures around $4,558 and spot gold as high as $4,578.17 in early European trade. This confirms that BUY 4560 is very close to the current market, so the trade is more of a continuation/retest buy than a low-position support catch.

The main bullish driver today is the softer dollar and falling oil. A weaker dollar makes USD-priced gold cheaper for non-dollar buyers, while lower oil prices reduce inflation anxiety and reduce pressure for more aggressive Fed tightening. This is important because last week gold was repeatedly pressured by the opposite combination: firmer dollar, higher Treasury yields, and sticky inflation fears. Reuters previously noted that gold fell when the dollar strengthened and benchmark U.S. yields stayed near more-than-one-year highs.

The deeper insight is that gold is no longer moving only as a war-risk hedge. Today’s rally is actually supported by easing geopolitical inflation pressure, not worsening conflict. If a U.S.–Iran agreement keeps oil lower and the dollar soft, gold can extend higher. But if the deal optimism fades and yields rise again, the $4,560 buy can quickly become vulnerable.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment has improved compared with last week, but it is not purely bullish. The return above $4,560 shows that buyers are willing to step back in after the $4,500–$4,540 support zone held several times. Silver’s strong move also supports the broader precious-metals complex, with Reuters reporting silver up 2.9% to $77.67 and WSJ showing silver rising even more sharply in early trade. That kind of cross-metal participation usually gives gold’s rebound better quality.

However, upside may still face resistance because Fed risk has not disappeared. WSJ noted that gold’s gains may be capped by weak U.S. consumer confidence and lingering expectations of possible Fed rate hikes. This means buyers may defend dips, but they may hesitate near resistance if yields start rising again. The key sentiment level is $4,578. If price breaks and holds above that area, the market can retest $4,600. If it rejects there, $4,560 may turn into a crowded entry zone.

Technical Analysis

Gold Rebounds Above $4,560: Bulls Ride Weaker Dollar, but Fed-Risk Still Caps the Upside_1

On the M15 timeframe, Bollinger Bands 20,0,2 likely show upside expansion after price recovered from the $4,500 region toward $4,560–$4,578. For BUY 4560 to remain valid, price should hold above the Bollinger middle band and avoid closing repeatedly below $4,540. If candles stay near the upper band while the band opens upward, momentum supports continuation toward $4,590–$4,600. If price closes back below the middle band, the move becomes a weaker pullback rather than a clean continuation.

Using IKH 9,26,52, the bullish case needs price to stay above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, with the M15 Kumo acting as support during pullbacks. A healthy buy structure would be price retesting $4,557–$4,560, rejecting lower, then closing back above $4,570. If price falls into the cloud and cannot reclaim Kijun, buyers are losing short-term control.

Stoch 5,3,3 should be used to avoid buying the top of a stretched move. The ideal signal is a reset toward the 30–50 zone followed by a bullish cross while price remains above $4,540–$4,557. If Stoch is already above 80 while price struggles below $4,578, the trade may need patience because a pullback can happen before continuation. M15 bias is bullish above $4,557, neutral between $4,540 and $4,557, and weaker if price closes below $4,540.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 4560

Take Profit: 4600

Stop Loss: 4538

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