Gold Maintains a High-Volatility Downtrend, Rallies Still Viewed as Selling Opportunities

Commodity

Summary:

After recording extreme gains in January, gold has seen a sharp expansion in high-level volatility. Rumors of a more hawkish Fed chair candidate, combined with a rebound in the USD, triggered a rapid correction in gold prices. On Friday, gold fell below the USD 5,000 level, with short-term topping signals beginning to emerge.

SELL XAUUSD

EXP

PENDING

5400.00

Entry Price

4519.00

5475.00

4894.49 -481.82 -8.96%

Pips

PENDING

4519.00

Exit Price

5400.00

Entry Price

5475.00

Fundamentals

Gold surged at an exceptional pace in January, with the monthly gain once approaching USD 1,300. Against the backdrop of persistent geopolitical risks and ongoing global economic uncertainty, safe-haven flows poured heavily into the gold market, pushing prices toward their strongest monthly performance since 1980.

However, market sentiment reversed noticeably in the latter half of the week. Rumors that Warsh could replace Powell as Fed chair and adopt a more hawkish stance gained traction during the Asian session, prompting markets to reassess the future path of monetary policy. Under this influence, gold prices plunged more than 4% intraday on Friday.

As expectations for a “less dovish” Fed chair intensified, the USD staged a short-term rebound. At the same time, gold had already been in a clearly overbought condition, with the prior rapid price advance lacking fresh fundamental support.

The intraday “flash crash” observed on Thursday signaled that the upside momentum of this rally was beginning to fade. By Friday, gold broke below the USD 5,000 psychological level, with intraday losses expanding to more than 7%. Risks at elevated price levels were rapidly released, and short-term topping signals became increasingly evident.

During the correction, part of the safe-haven demand rotated out of gold and temporarily shifted toward USD assets. Previously accumulated floating profits amplified the incentive for profit-taking at high levels.

Looking ahead, in the absence of renewed geopolitical escalation or strong macro-level stimulus in the near term, traders may continue to lock in profits. Gold may enter a phase of high-level consolidation or further correction in the short term, with the risk of continued volatility expansion remaining elevated.

Gold Maintains a High-Volatility Downtrend, Rallies Still Viewed as Selling Opportunities_1

Technical Analysis

Gold’s consecutive sharp pullbacks on Friday are consistent with expectations of heightened volatility following institutional selling. From the perspective of the current structural trend, large price swings are likely to persist into early next month. During this period, momentum indicators are prone to frequent breakouts and are therefore not recommended as trading references. Positioning should instead be based on key institutional selling levels.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 5400

Target Price: 4519

Stop Loss: 5475

Valid Until: February 25, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 5045 / 4990 / 4940

Resistance: 5188 / 5241 / 5409

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Spot silver (XAG/USD) crashed over 12% on Friday in a violent correction, erasing a large portion of its recent record-setting rally

SELL XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

97.500

Entry Price

87.000

106.000

85.167 -30.479 -26.36%

589.5

Pips

Profit

87.000

91.605

Exit Price

97.500

Entry Price

106.000

In a breathtaking reversal of fortune that underscores the extreme fragility of speculative market rallies, the silver market endured a violent and historic sell-off on Friday, surrendering a massive portion of its recent record-breaking gains. The precipitous drop, one of the most severe single-day corrections in modern memory, has sent shockwaves through the broader commodities complex and served as a stark reminder of the perils of frothy, leverage-fueled momentum.

After a parabolic ascent that captivated and concerned investors in equal measure, spot silver (XAG/USD) finally buckled under its own weight and a shifting macroeconomic tide. At last check, the white metal was trading near $102.20 per ounce, a staggering decline of 12.30% for the session. This gut-wrenching move effectively erased a significant chunk of the gains that propelled silver to an unprecedented all-time high of $121.66 just yesterday—a peak that now stands as a sobering monument to the frenzy that preceded the collapse.

The selling pressure, which began in Asian hours, metastasized into a full-blown liquidation event during the European trading session. Prices entered a near-freefall, momentarily breaching the critical psychological fortress of $100 to tag an intraday low of $95.08. The scale and velocity of the decline were not merely a function of disappointed bulls; they pointed directly to the forced unwinding of highly leveraged speculative positions. As stop-loss orders were triggered en masse, the selling fed upon itself, creating a vacuum of bids and exacerbating the downward spiral.

This was not an isolated tremor but part of a broader seismic shift rattling the precious metals space. The dramatic pullback reflects a rapid and harsh reassessment of the most speculative safe-haven assets. The market narrative, which for weeks had been dominated by geopolitical fear and endless liquidity, abruptly changed key.

The primary accelerant for today’s fire sale was a fundamental shift in the most important variable for non-yielding assets: the future path of U.S. monetary policy. The catalyst emerged from the political sphere, with the announcement that President Donald Trump intends to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.

The market’s reaction was immediate and unequivocal. Warsh, a former Fed governor, is perceived by investors as notably more hawkish on inflation and a staunch advocate for a more aggressive reduction of the central bank’s bloated balance sheet. His potential leadership implies a Federal Reserve that would be significantly less accommodative, and potentially more proactive in tightening financial conditions, than previously priced in.

The consequences were instantaneous. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) surged, climbing off its recent lows as the prospect of higher relative yields boosted its appeal. Concurrently, U.S. Treasury yields jumped across the curve. For silver, which offers no interest or dividend, this twin development is poison. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for foreign buyers, while higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a asset that generates no income. The calculus for institutional holders changed in a matter of minutes.

Beyond the Warsh shock, today’s action embodies the classic market dynamic of "buy the rumor, sell the news" amplified to an extreme degree. The recent vertical rally, driven by a potent cocktail of Middle East tensions, global growth anxieties, and massive speculative inflows, had pushed silver into technically overbought territory of historic proportions. The market was a coiled spring, waiting for a catalyst to snap back.

The Fed nomination provided that trigger, prompting a long-overdue wave of profit-taking. Investors who rode the spectacular surge from lower levels seized the opportunity to convert paper gains into realized profits at still-elevated prices. This organic selling merged with the forced liquidation from leveraged players, creating a perfect storm of downward pressure.

Despite the brutal visual on today’s chart, it is crucial to maintain perspective. Even after this dramatic correction, silver remains on track to close one of its strongest monthly performances in history. The underlying fundamental drivers that fueled the rally have not vanished. Geopolitical risk, particularly in the Middle East, remains elevated. Questions surrounding global economic stamina and the ultimate trajectory of inflation are unresolved. The structural demand for tangible assets as a hedge against monetary debasement and uncertainty persists.

What today represents is not necessarily the end of the bullish narrative, but a severe and necessary market cleanse. It has shaken out the weakest hands, reset overextended technical indicators, and forced a repricing based on a new, more hawkish Fed risk. The volatility is a tax on uncertainty, and today, that tax was levied in full.

Going forward, investors must prepare for a new regime of elevated volatility. The market must now grapple with the implications of a potentially transformative shift at the helm of the world’s most influential central bank. Support levels around $100 and below will be tested rigorously. Whether this episode morphs into a deeper correction or proves to be a healthy consolidation within a longer-term uptrend will depend on the evolution of the Fed narrative, the persistence of geopolitical strife, and the appetite of physical buyers to step in at these lower levels.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, silver has shifted from a steady bullish advance into a vulnerable corrective phase on the 4-hour chart. Price had been trending higher along a well-respected ascending trendline, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. However, the latest sharp rejection from the upper resistance zone near $118.00–$120.00 has disrupted that structure, with price now breaking back below a key horizontal support band around $104.00–$106.00.

This former support zone, which previously acted as a platform for multiple rebounds, is now at risk of turning into resistance. The strong bearish impulse candle slicing through this region signals a change in short-term momentum and suggests that buyers are losing control after an extended run. Price is currently hovering near the psychological $100.00 level, which is providing temporary support, but the broader structure now looks increasingly fragile.

The ascending trendline that guided the rally from early January has also been breached on an intraday basis. Unless silver can quickly reclaim levels above $105.00 and re-establish itself back above the broken support zone, the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside. A sustained move below $99.00–$100.00 would confirm a deeper corrective phase, exposing the $95.00 region initially, followed by the $90.00–$92.00 zone where prior consolidation and demand were seen.

On the upside, any recovery attempts are likely to face first resistance near $104.00–$106.00. A decisive break back above this area would be needed to stabilize the structure and shift focus toward $110.00. Only a sustained move beyond $116.00–$118.00 would fully revive the broader bullish trend and open the door for a retest of recent highs.

Momentum dynamics now favor consolidation-to-bearish continuation rather than immediate trend resumption. The recent rejection from the highs and the impulsive nature of the selloff suggest fading bullish momentum and rising distribution at elevated levels. This points to increased risk of further downside probing before a more durable base can form.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL SILVER

ENTRY PRICE: 97.50

STOP LOSS: 106.00

TAKE PROFIT: 87.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The British Pound maintains a firm stance just below its weekly highs against the Japanese Yen, trading at 211.65, as conflicting trans-Pacific policy messages create a stalemate.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

212.050

Entry Price

213.200

211.600

211.791 +0.384 +0.18%

45.0

Pips

Loss

211.600

211.599

Exit Price

212.050

Entry Price

213.200

In the often-predictable world of currency trading, it is the clash of narratives that breeds volatility, and the GBP/JPY cross is currently ground zero for a compelling policy dissonance. The Pound Sterling, acting as both protagonist and barometer of global risk sentiment, is holding a commanding position just shy of its weekly highs against the beleaguered Japanese Yen. As of this writing, the pair trades at 211.65, a level that encapsulates a Wednesday rebound from the 210.00 support—a recovery fueled not by UK developments, but by clarifying rhetoric from Washington that has effectively short-circuited the Yen’s fledgling recovery narrative.

The week’s drama began with a rumor that sent shockwaves through the Tokyo markets: whispers of a potential coordinated intervention to prop up the historically weak Yen. This specter, which triggered a sharp but fleeting JPY recovery last week, was authoritatively laid to rest by none other than US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. In a Wednesday interview with Bloomberg, Bessent delivered a one-two punch of dollar policy. First, he explicitly denied any plans for market intervention to support JPY stability. More significantly, less than 24 hours after former President Donald Trump publicly praised a weakening dollar, Bessent forcefully affirmed the current administration’s commitment to a "strong Dollar policy." The message was unequivocal and immediately digestible for traders: do not expect a US backstop for the Yen’s woes. This single interview provided the jet fuel for the GBP/JPY’s rebound, demonstrating the outsized influence of US political and fiscal commentary on global FX flows.

This American intervention—verbal, not market-based—effectively offset what should have been a supportive domestic development for the Yen. The released minutes from the Bank of Japan’s latest monetary policy meeting revealed a governing board increasingly tilting toward hawkishness. There was noted “general agreement” that the potent combination of persistent inflationary pressures, the Yen’s profound weakness exacerbating import costs, and sustained wage growth indeed “justify further monetary tightening.” This language marks a subtle but critical shift from the BoJ’s decades-long ultra-dovish dogma, theoretically constructing a fundamental floor for the Yen. Yet, in the face of a resolute US Treasury, these minutes read like a theoretical exercise, their impact muted by the stark reality of a widening interest rate chasm and a lack of immediate action.

The immediate test for the BoJ’s thesis arrives later today with the release of the advanced Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), a leading indicator for national trends. The data presents a critical dilemma. While the BoJ minutes speak of rising pressures, the hard data tells a moderating story: consumer inflation in Japan’s capital cooled to 2.0% year-on-year in December from 2.7% in November. The market consensus for January’s core reading suggests a further moderation. A print confirming this cooling trend could severely undermine the hawkish narrative embedded in the minutes, stripping the Yen of one of its few remaining domestic supports and inviting renewed selling pressure. The currency is caught between the BoJ’s forward-looking guidance and the market’s rear-view mirror data analysis.

On the other side of the pair, the Pound draws strength from a more immediate and visceral source: sticky inflation. Data earlier this week revealed UK shop price inflation surged in January to its highest level in nearly two years, driven by stubbornly rising food prices and elevated fuel costs. For traders and the Bank of England alike, this is a potent signal. It directly boosts expectations for a hotter-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index reading for January when it is published later this month. In the current environment, "hot" UK data translates directly into support for Sterling, as it fiercely entrenches the argument against any near-term monetary easing from the BoE. While the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank openly debate their first rate cuts, the UK’s inflation dynamics suggest its central bank will be among the last to pivot. This relative interest rate advantage provides a structural tailwind for the Pound against funding currencies like the Yen.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBPJPY remains entrenched within a well-defined bullish structure, consolidating near recent highs following a significant uptrend. On the 30-minute chart, prices are trading in a tight range just below the key 212.000 psychological level, with the current session showing a high of 211.997, a low of 211.846, and a close at 211.986 (+0.01%). This narrow price action indicates a period of equilibrium and compression as the market gathers momentum for its next directional move.

The broader structure is bullish, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows from the lows near 209.000 in late January. The immediate price action is testing the upper boundary of its recent range. The key near-term support is now established at today's low of 211.846, which aligns with the previous session's consolidation. A decisive break below this level could trigger a short-term pullback toward the more significant support zone between 211.300 – 211.500, an area that represents a prior resistance-turned-support and a critical level for maintaining the near-term bullish bias. A sustained move below 211.300 would signal a deeper corrective move, initially targeting the 210.500 – 210.800 zone.

On the upside, the immediate resistance and primary bullish target is the psychological 212.000 handle, which the price has tested but not yet decisively broken. A sustained push and a 30-minute close above 212.000 would confirm the resumption of the bullish impulse and likely invigorate momentum buying. Such a breakout would shift focus decisively toward the next resistance levels at 212.500 and 213.000, with a clear path toward the 214.000 area visible on the chart.

Momentum indicators suggest consolidation rather than exhaustion. The minimal positive close and extremely tight range reflect a cooling in bullish momentum, reducing the risk of an immediate sharp reversal. This type of price action supports the case for continued sideways-to-higher movement as the market builds a base for the next leg up. The compression also indicates that a volatility expansion is imminent, with the breakout direction likely to dictate the short-term trend.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 212.050 (On a sustained 30-minute close above 212.000)

STOP LOSS: 211.600

TAKE PROFIT: 213.200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

WTI crude edged lower but remained set for a strong ~12% monthly gain, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply outages sustained a significant risk premium, offsetting demand concerns.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

64.496

Entry Price

72.000

60.900

65.427 +0.175 +0.27%

104.1

Pips

Profit

60.900

65.537

Exit Price

64.496

Entry Price

72.000

In a classic display of the crude market’s current dichotomy, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures retreated from multi-session highs on Friday, yet held firmly on track for a striking monthly advance. The benchmark was last seen trading near $64.00 per barrel during the Asian session, a mild pullback after a three-day rally that underscores the complex tug-of-war between tangible supply risks and lingering macroeconomic anxieties.

Make no mistake: the dominant narrative for January has been one of resilience. Despite concerns over global demand growth and persistent warnings of an oversupplied market later this year, WTI is poised to close the month with a gain of roughly 12%. This impressive performance isn’t born from a surge of bullish economic data. Instead, it is almost entirely constructed atop an elevated—and still rising—geopolitical risk premium. The market is, in essence, pricing in a world where the flow of crude is perpetually one headline away from disruption.

This week, that premium received fresh and highly volatile injections from the world’s most precarious energy flashpoint. Tensions between the United States and Iran escalated dramatically, moving beyond diplomatic posturing into the realm of tangible military threat. The catalyst was a renewed volley of threats from former U.S. President Donald Trump directed at Tehran, urging a return to nuclear talks. Iran’s response was not calibrated for de-escalation. A senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned the nation would “defend itself and respond like never before” if provoked.

The situation was immediately compounded by a significant political move from Europe. The European Union’s decision to formally designate Iran’s IRGC as a terrorist organization has further isolated the regime and narrowed the avenues for diplomatic maneuvering. The geopolitical chessboard saw pieces move rapidly: reports emerged of the U.S. bolstering its military footprint in the region, while Tehran, in a direct and provocative counter, announced plans for live-fire military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz.

For traders and analysts, the Strait of Hormuz is the only square on this chessboard that truly matters. This narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is the artery of global energy transit, with about a fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption passing through its waters. Any credible threat of its disruption sends a reflexive shiver through trading desks from Singapore to London. As strategists at Westpac noted via Dow Jones Newswires, the market is grappling with the potential for "chaotic" outcomes, a scenario far removed from the relatively controlled "surgical strikes" of the past.

Yet, even as one geopolitical front heated up, another saw a surprising, if tactical, thaw. In a notable shift, the Trump administration selectively eased certain sanctions on Venezuela’s beleaguered oil industry on Thursday. The move, clearly designed to lure U.S. investment following the U.S.-backed removal of President Nicolás Maduro earlier this month, grants specific licenses for American companies to engage in production, transport, and refining activities involving Venezuelan-origin crude. While this is a long-term play for reshaping Venezuela’s oil sector—and a strategic counter to Russian and Chinese influence there—its immediate market impact is psychological, reminding participants that barrels can re-enter the market from unexpected quarters.

This month’s price support has been a mosaic of such disruptions. The rally was initially bolstered by a confluence of unplanned outages: production hiccups in Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field, operational freeze-offs that curtailed output in the Permian Basin, and tighter U.S. enforcement of sanctions on Russian oil purchases. These factors collectively tightened the near-term physical balance sheet, providing a fundamental floor for prices that the geopolitical drama then built upon.

The market is walking a precarious tightrope. The 12% monthly gain is a testament to oil’s enduring sensitivity to supply shocks, real or imagined. However, the failure to hold above $64.50 suggests a market that is bullish, but not reckless. There is a palpable caution, a recognition that the current risk premium is substantial and vulnerable to rapid deflation should any of the geopolitical sparks fail to ignite a wider fire, or should tangible evidence of a supply overhang emerge.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, WTI Crude Oil is showing early signs of a trend transition following a prolonged bearish phase on the 4-hour chart. Price had been entrenched in a well-defined descending channel for several months, consistently producing lower highs and lower lows. However, recent price action shows a decisive bullish break above the upper boundary of that channel, signaling a meaningful shift in market structure and increasing the probability that a medium-term base has been established.

WTI is currently trading around the $64.00–$64.50 zone, which aligns with a major horizontal resistance-turned-support area. This level previously acted as a distribution zone during mid-2025 and has now been reclaimed with strong bullish momentum, suggesting acceptance above former supply. Holding above this region is critical; sustained price action above $63.50–$64.00 would confirm the breakout and reinforce the bullish reversal narrative. A failure to hold this level would imply a false breakout and could trigger a pullback toward $62.00, followed by the $60.00–$59.50 demand zone, where buyers previously stepped in aggressively.

To the downside, the $56.00–$57.00 region represents the most important structural support. This area marks the cycle low and the lower bound of the broader accumulation range. A decisive break below this zone would negate the bullish thesis entirely and reopen downside risk toward the $53.00–$50.00 region, signaling a continuation of the longer-term bearish trend.

On the upside, the next key resistance is located near $66.00–$68.00, a zone defined by prior swing highs and heavy historical trading activity. A clean break and hold above this region would likely accelerate upside momentum and expose higher targets toward $72.00, followed by the $75.00 psychological level, where sellers previously regained control. The sharp bullish expansion seen during the breakout suggests improving participation and a potential shift from corrective price action into trend continuation.

Momentum characteristics favor continuation rather than exhaustion. The impulsive nature of the breakout contrasts sharply with the overlapping, corrective structure that preceded it—often a hallmark of trend reversals rather than short-lived retracements. Volatility expansion following prolonged compression further supports the case for sustained directional movement.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY WTI CRUDE OIL

ENTRY PRICE: 64.50

STOP LOSS: 60.90

TAKE PROFIT: 72.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Tank

Forex

Technical Analysis

Summary:

The upside potential for the yen may be limited, as Tokyo's consumer price index (CPI) came in below expectations, lowering market expectations for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Data released Friday by Japan's Statistics Bureau showed Tokyo CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year in January, the slowest pace since March 2022, down from 2.0% in the previous month.

BUY USDJPY

EXP

PENDING

153.400

Entry Price

160.000

149.500

154.757 +1.653 +1.08%

Pips

PENDING

149.500

Exit Price

153.400

Entry Price

160.000

Fundamentals

Markets expect coordinated intervention measures between the U.S. and Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned last week that officials are prepared to take necessary steps to address speculative and highly abnormal market volatility. On the other hand, yen upside may be limited because the weaker-than-expected Tokyo CPI has reduced expectations for an imminent BoJ rate hike. According to data released Friday by Japan's Statistics Bureau, Tokyo CPI rose 1.5% YoY in January, the lowest growth rate since March 2022, down from 2.0% in the previous month. Meanwhile, Tokyo's core CPI YoY growth slowed to 2.0% in January, the lowest since October 2024, down from 2.3% in December and below the market forecast of 2.2%. This report reinforced market expectations that the BoJ will remain cautious about further rate hikes. In domestic politics, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is widely expected to perform well in the House of Representatives snap election scheduled for February 8. Preliminary results based on interviews conducted by Nikkei and a joint poll with Yomiuri Shimbun suggest the LDP is expected to gain seats and cross the majority threshold of 233 out of 465 House seats, significantly higher than its pre-election tally of 198. Currently, the ruling coalition of the LDP and Nippon Ishin no Kai holds only a narrow majority in the House and remains in the minority in the Upper House. Takaichi called the snap election to seek clearer public endorsement for her expansionary fiscal policies, but this policy direction has raised market concerns over a potential increase in Japanese government bond issuance, pushing bond yields higher. Although the campaign is still in its early stages, the LDP's overall momentum remains strong.

In financial markets, Japanese authorities are tackling yen depreciation pressure in a different way from before. With rare U.S. backing, Japan’s top currency official has adopted a strategy of “tactical silence” and restrained communication rather than frequent FX intervention. Atsushi Mimura, Vice Minister for International Affairs at the Ministry of Finance, who took office in 2024, has deliberately reduced public statements, making limited remarks themselves a policy signal and increasing market difficulty in judging whether and when Japan might intervene. Analysts note that without deploying large-scale intervention funds, Japan has pushed USD/JPY down by roughly 7 yen, regarded as a highly efficient operation. Recently, the yen has experienced several notable appreciations, including one following reports of unusual interest rate checks by the New York Fed, sparking speculation of a long-unseen joint U.S.–Japan intervention. Although the U.S. denied direct intervention, America's involvement in related rate checks is viewed as a significant breakthrough.

According to Bloomberg, Trump said Thursday evening that he would announce his nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair on Friday morning. Earlier reports indicated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh met with Trump at the White House, after which Warsh emerged as a leading candidate. Traders will closely watch developments and their potential impact on Fed independence and interest rate prospects. The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that Trump reached an agreement with Senate Democrats that could avert a government shutdown and buy more time to negotiate limits on government immigration policies. Market anxiety eased after the news broke. However, it remains unclear how quickly—or even if—the House will take up the funding bills once passed by the Senate. The shutdown deadline is midnight Friday. If market worries resurface, especially regarding Fed independence and the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, the dollar's rebound may prove short-lived, and these concerns could continue to weigh on the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

From a daily chart perspective, USD/JPY's Bollinger Bands are opening downward, moving averages are diverging lower, and price is falling strongly along the Bollinger Lower Band. After MACD formed a death cross, upward momentum clearly weakened. Besides, the MACD and signal lines have moved below the zero axis, indicating the market has entered a bearish trend. In the short term, price has stabilized and rebounded near the EMA200, potentially returning to around the EMA12 and the Bollinger Middle Band at 155.2 and 156.5, respectively. RSI is at 38, signaling an oversold zone where investors are mainly in sell mode.

Election Storm Approaches! USD/JPY Maintains Rebound Trend_1

Election Storm Approaches! USD/JPY Maintains Rebound Trend_2

Trading Recommendations:

Trading direction: Buy

Entry Price: 153.4

Target Price: 160

Stop Loss: 149.5

Support: 152/150/149.5

Resistance: 160/161/162

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Alan

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Recent declines in Bitcoin are primarily influenced by expectations surrounding U.S. dollar monetary policy and ongoing institutional capital outflows, with the price currently approaching the 80,000 support level. A short-term rebound trend may be imminent.

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

TRADING

82766.9

Entry Price

89000.0

79000.0

83517.0 -736.2 -0.87%

0.0

Pips

Flat

79000.0

Exit Price

82766.9

Entry Price

89000.0

Fundamentals

Bitcoin continued its intraday decline today, with prices slipping from 85,000 to around 83,000, exhibiting oscillations. Short-term market volatility was primarily driven by a dual impact: expectations surrounding U.S. Federal Reserve chairman appointment and fluctuating institutional capital flows. Discussions about the Fed chair candidate and intermittent outflows from ETFs collectively suppressed risk asset demand, exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin and testing key support levels.

On the macro and institutional fundamental front, this week's asset rebalancing was influenced by macroeconomic and regulatory developments. Foremost, speculations about the Fed's future leadership and its inclination towards hawkish or dovish policies impacted liquidity expectations—if the incoming chair adopts a tighter stance, liquidity tightening could dampen demand for high-risk assets, exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin. Reuters reports indicated that guesses about the next Fed chair directly triggered today's sell-off. Additionally, the established spot Bitcoin ETF channels since 2025 continue to influence market dynamics, but fund flows have been non-linear: recent phases saw net outflows amid volatile institutional allocations, making prices more susceptible to significant retracements in response to news fluctuations. Analysis shows that ETF and institutional liquidity remain the decisive external variables influencing current price volatility.

Furthermore, on-chain dynamics and exchange order book supply and demand are influencing short-term market structures: reports indicate net outflows from certain centralized exchanges, suggesting institutional or large holder retreatment without rapid bottom-fishing; however, long-term investors and some institutional players exhibit willingness to accumulate on retracements, indicating that the fundamental demand base remains partially resilient. Overall, the current market sentiment resembles a pendulum swing between liquidity-driven trading and reallocation mood, lacking a clear overarching catalyst for directional movement.

Technical Analysis

A Double Bottom Will Be Formed in the 1D Timeframe, with a Potential Short-term Rebound_1

In the 1D timeframe, Bitcoin experienced a dip below the 80,000 level today, followed by a rapid rebound, indicating strong support at this zone. This level is near the lows established in November 2025, and the candlestick pattern suggests the potential formation of a double bottom. If the closing price exceeds 80,000 today, the double bottom pattern will be confirmed, signaling a short-term technical correction and potential rebound.

Currently, key support is identified at the 80,000 level; a breach below this could open further downside potential toward 75,000. Resistance in the short term is formed by the recent high points of the moving averages, approximately in the 88,000 to 92,000 range. Stabilization above this zone would be necessary to re-establish the medium-term bullish trajectory.

Regarding technical indicators, the RSI shows that the market has entered oversold territory, increasing the likelihood of a short-term rebound.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 82000

Target Price: 89000

Stop Loss: 79000

Valid Until: February 13, 2026 23:00:00

Support: 80000, 75000

Resistance: 88000, 92000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Economic

Summary:

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has slipped to around $82,000, breaking key short-term support amid macro uncertainty and risk-off flows, but recent oversold conditions are emerging that may attract dip buyers and initiate a corrective bounce...

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

TRADING

82511.5

Entry Price

86500.0

80400.0

83517.0 -736.2 -0.87%

0.0

Pips

Flat

80400.0

Exit Price

82511.5

Entry Price

86500.0

Market Overview

Bitcoin has been under pressure and recently traded near the $82,000–$83,000 zone, down sharply as macro risk sentiment dampened appetite for speculative assets. The price decline accelerated following concerns over U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy shifts and broader market sell-offs that weakened BTC momentum below critical support levels. Despite this weakness, the sharp drop is approaching deeper historical support zones, where oversold readings often attract technical buyers and short covering.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment remains cautious but shows signs that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion around current levels. Bitcoin’s extended sell-off below major supports has pushed the market into oversold territory, and although bearish narratives dominate short-term headlines, some analysts indicate the possibility of stabilization as BTC finds a base around these lows. Traders observing key psychological support at ~$80,000–$82,000 may begin to accumulate, particularly if broader risk markets show signs of steadiness.

Technical Analysis

BTC Testing Oversold Support Around $82K With Potential Rebound Setup_1

On the M15 timeframe, BTC is trading near significant short-term support as selling momentum slows, with technical indicators often showing oversold conditions capable of producing rebounds. While resistance remains above recent consolidation ranges (near $87,500–$89,000), the current support cluster provides a tactical buy zone for a corrective move. A successful bounce from these levels could see BTC attempt to reclaim weaker resistances and test the short-term overhead supply.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 82500

Take Profit: 86500

Stop Loss: 80400

BUY BTC at current oversold support, expecting a rebound toward short-term resistance, with disciplined risk management due to prevailing volatility and mixed macro drivers. A break below 80400 would signal deeper bearish continuation and invalidate the near-term buy setup.

Tell me if you need a sell setup at higher levels or a higher timeframe (H1/H4) analysis.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites