Gold Price Forms Triangle Pattern, Eyes Breakout Toward $3,410

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold retreated slightly after hitting a two-week high last week on dovish remarks from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole. Markets are betting heavily on a September rate cut, with traders eyeing key resistance at $3,375–$3,385.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3370.00

Entry Price

3410.00

3335.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

96.7

Pips

Profit

3335.00

3379.67

Exit Price

3370.00

Entry Price

3410.00

Gold prices edged lower at the start of the week, consolidating after a strong rally that pushed the metal to a two-week high on Friday. The move followed dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which ignited a broad surge across precious metals and risk assets. However, with the U.S. Dollar recovering modestly and Treasury yields ticking higher on Monday, bullion has struggled to extend gains, holding near $3,365 an ounce at the time of writing.

Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole marked his final annual speech at the influential gathering, and his tone was interpreted by markets as a significant step toward policy easing. While acknowledging inflation risks, he stressed the Fed’s need for caution as the U.S. economy adjusts to shifting dynamics.

“The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” Powell said.

His words underscored the delicate balancing act facing policymakers. Inflationary pressures tied to tariffs could prove temporary, but slowing job growth and restrictive borrowing conditions are becoming more pressing concerns. Investors interpreted this as an early acknowledgment that the Fed may need to shift from fighting inflation to supporting growth.

That dovish interpretation triggered a repricing of market expectations. Analysts at Barclays and BNP Paribas now forecast a 25-basis-point cut as soon as September, with some projecting another reduction in December. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders assigning an 87% probability of a September rate cut, compared with about 71% before Powell spoke. In the aftermath, U.S. Treasury yields eased, Wall Street stocks advanced, and the U.S. Dollar retreated, opening the door for Gold’s rally.

Yet Monday’s trading suggests momentum is waning. The U.S. Dollar index staged a modest rebound, while 10-year Treasury yields climbed back above 3.9%, trimming some of bullion’s appeal. Market participants appear cautious, choosing to lock in profits ahead of a heavy week of U.S. data releases, including consumer spending figures and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE index.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Gold remains underpinned by bullish momentum despite its pause. Prices recently broke above a short-term descending trendline and are trading comfortably above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing the broader uptrend. The rebound from $3,312 support has left the metal consolidating in a narrow band around $3,365, with a local triangle pattern taking shape.

The immediate resistance zone sits at $3,375–$3,385, and a clean break above could open the way to the next upside target near $3,410. However, relative strength index (RSI) readings have entered overbought territory, signaling that the market may need to work off some froth before resuming its climb. Should prices falter, initial support lies at $3,345, followed by stronger footing around $3,312.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3370

STOP LOSS: 3335

TAKE PROFIT: 3410

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

EUR/USD steadies above 1.1700 as the US Dollar weakens following Powell’s dovish shift at Jackson Hole, with traders eyeing Eurozone inflation data and US PCE for further direction.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17000

Entry Price

1.18300

1.16400

1.17394 +0.00011 +0.01%

60.0

Pips

Loss

1.16400

1.16397

Exit Price

1.17000

Entry Price

1.18300

The euro held firm against the US dollar in early European trading on Monday, consolidating Friday’s gains as investors digested a surprisingly dovish tone from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The single currency hovered just above 1.1700, extending a modest rebound as the greenback remained pinned near a four-week low.

The dollar’s retreat follows Powell’s remarks at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, where he acknowledged that risks in the U.S. economy have shifted and hinted that interest rate cuts could be on the table sooner than markets had previously anticipated. Powell noted that while policy remains restrictive, “the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” language widely interpreted as a signal that the Fed is preparing to ease in response to growing labor market strains.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major peers, traded around 97.60 at the time of writing—its weakest level in nearly a month. The index has struggled to gain traction as markets increasingly bet that the Fed’s next move will be a cut rather than an extended pause.

For the euro, the backdrop is complicated. While relief from dollar strength has supported the pair, traders remain cautious ahead of preliminary Eurozone inflation figures for August. Headline price growth has been moderating, but core inflation remains sticky, creating a dilemma for the European Central Bank. Markets are already pricing in the possibility that the ECB will maintain a restrictive stance for longer, though a sharper slowdown in inflation could tilt expectations toward policy easing later this year.

In the U.S., attention will turn to Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for July, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A softer print could reinforce expectations of a near-term rate cut, likely fueling further downside pressure on the dollar. Conversely, a surprise to the upside may complicate the narrative of imminent easing and provide the greenback with temporary support.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is currently consolidating around the 1.1700 mark on the hourly chart. Applying Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing low to swing high, the 61% retracement level aligns with a notable support zone between 1.1660 and 1.1650. This confluence of technical factors makes the area an important level to watch, with potential for bullish reversal if defended.

Should the pair hold above this support, a move towards 1.1750 appears likely. Beyond that, a sustained break above the downward-sloping trendline around 1.1740, drawn from July’s high at 1.1830, could unlock further upside momentum.

The near-term outlook remains constructive, as the pair trades above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently near 1.1652. This reinforces the view that the euro retains a bullish bias in the short term, though failure to hold the 1.1650 zone could expose the pair to deeper losses.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1700

STOP LOSS: 1.1640

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1830

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Central Bank

Summary:

Monday’s European session saw bullion retain most of Friday’s breakout gains. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium signalled a readiness to ease monetary restraint, sending the precious metal sharply higher and the greenback tumbling.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3364.38

Entry Price

3470.00

3323.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

118.8

Pips

Profit

3323.00

3376.26

Exit Price

3364.38

Entry Price

3470.00

Fundamentals

Spot gold held near the $3,350 breakout level achieved Friday, as markets continued to price in Chair Powell’s dovish pivot. Speaking at Jackson Hole, Powell stressed that the Fed’s dual-mandate calculus is becoming increasingly delicate: inflation risks remain skewed to the upside even as downside risks to employment intensify. He argued that the policy stance is now “meaningfully closer” to neutral than a year ago and that labour-market indicators are sufficiently stable to warrant a cautious approach.

Crucially, Powell stated that with policy already in restrictive territory, “the evolving balance of risks could warrant an adjustment in the policy stance.” Markets interpreted the remark as a tacit green-light for easing, triggering a broad-based dollar selloff that has carried into the new week.

Market Observation: Following Powell’s remarks, swaps now imply three consecutive 25 bp cuts by year-end. From an asset-allocation perspective, the re-emergence of a clear “rate-cut narrative” after a year-long hiatus should underpin non-USD assets. A replay of July-2024-style rallies in rate-sensitive havens looks increasingly plausible.

For the gold itself, falling real yields are a structural tail-wind, though headline risk remains should Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks advance.

Jackson Hole Speech Ignites “Rate-Cut Trade,” Dollar Sinks, Gold Gains_1

Technical Analysis

Friday’s spike matched our base case for a volatility-compression release. Yet the statement’s deliberate ambiguity—both inflation and labour gauges are in an “odd equilibrium”—has capped follow-through momentum.

Gold’s inability to extend meaningfully above the MA20 ($3,359) keeps the near-term bias neutral, while the RSI oscillating in the 40–60 zone underscores indecision. Expect range-bound trade to dominate Monday’s session.

Structurally, the longer-term uptrend is intact; a breakout above the June–July highs is still anticipated before the next corrective phase.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3360

Target Price: 3470

Stop Loss: 3323

Valid Until: September 9, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 3352/3348/3341

Resistance: 3375/3378/3380

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

USDJPY slid to a three-week low last Friday as investors fixated on the timing of the Bank of Japan’s next rate increase. Swaps now imply a non-trivial probability of an autumn tightening, sending short-end JGB yields higher and the yen firmer across the board.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

147.458

Entry Price

149.900

146.000

155.814 +0.255 +0.16%

111.1

Pips

Profit

146.000

148.569

Exit Price

147.458

Entry Price

149.900

Fundamentals

USDJPY tumbled to a three-week trough in late New York trading Friday as uncertainty over the timing of the Bank of Japan’s next rate hike became the dominant driver of a second straight session of yen outperformance.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told a Jackson Hole panel Saturday that Japan’s labour shortage has become “one of the most pressing macroeconomic constraints we face,” noting that wage momentum—once confined to large corporates—is now rippling through the SME segment, intensifying cost-push pressures.

Governor Ueda stated that, barring a significant adverse demand shock, “the labour market is expected to remain tight and continue exerting upward pressure on wages.” He highlighted that demographic shifts unfolding since the 1980s are now “intensifying acute labour shortages and entrenching persistent wage inflation.”

These structural forces, Ueda argued, are compelling supply-side adjustments—namely higher labour-force participation, greater labour mobility and accelerated capital-for-labour substitution. The Bank of Japan, he pledged, will “continue to monitor these developments closely and incorporate our assessment of evolving supply-side conditions into the calibration of monetary policy.”

Data released earlier on Friday showed Japan’s nationwide CPI rising 3.1% YoY in July, in line with consensus, while the BoJ’s preferred core gauge—excluding fresh food and energy—accelerated to 3.4% YoY. Both prints remain materially above the 2% target, reinforcing the case for further tightening.

Japan’s inflation stubbornly above the BoJ’s 2 % target remains the central bank’s overriding concern. With money markets now pricing a non-trivial probability of a second tightening as early as this autumn, short-rate expectations have repriced markedly higher. The concurrent compression of the U.S.–Japan yield spread—driven by a sharp bear-steepening in the JGB curve—has turned into a pronounced yen tail-wind, underscoring the upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields across tenors.

Governor Ueda flags labour crunch, raising odds of faster BoJ rate hikes_1

Technical Analysis

USDJPY is holding just above key support at 146.57. During the day, the bias stays neutral.

Downside: A sustained break of 146.20 would re-open the down-leg from the 150.90 high and confirm that the rebound from 139.87 has completed. The next downside objective is the 142.67 July low.

Upside: A decisive break above 148.76 would shift the tone and re-target the 150.90 cycle top.

Last week’s doji close suggests scope for corrective recovery early this week.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 147.00

Target Price: 149.90

Stop Loss: 146.00

Valid Until: Sep. 9, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 146.57/146.22/145.85

Resistance: 148.11/148.79/149.19

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

Last Friday, influenced by Powell's dovish remarks, the USDCAD experienced a significant depreciation. However, technical analysis indicates a potential support level in the 4H timeframe, suggesting that the bullish trend may continue.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.38294

Entry Price

1.39900

1.37600

1.37700 0.00000 0.00%

7.1

Pips

Profit

1.37600

1.38365

Exit Price

1.38294

Entry Price

1.39900

Fundamentals

The recent fluctuations in the USDCAD can be attributed to the interplay between two primary fundamental factors: the "interest rate differential effect stemming from weakening Canadian inflation" and the "counteracting influence of short-term oil price volatility."

From a domestic perspective, the latest inflation data indicates that Canada's July Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year has significantly declined to approximately 1.7%, with the short-term core inflation moving downward as well. This development has notably undermined market confidence in the Bank of Canada's continued tightening stance. The subdued inflation outlook directly impacts nominal and real yields, leading to expectations of narrowing interest rate differentials between Canada and the U.S. In this context, the diminished interest rate advantage of the Canadian dollar reduces its attractiveness, thereby serving as a long-term fundamental driver for depreciation of the Canadian dollar and appreciation of the USDCAD.

However, the downward pressure driven by the interest rate differential is not isolated; short-term fluctuations in crude oil prices are acting as a significant countervailing force. Recently, due to Ukraine's sudden attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and the rising risk of supply disruptions, WTI and Brent crude have experienced notable short-term rebounds. As an energy-exporting nation, Canada's trade balance and fiscal position benefit directly from rising oil prices, which can support the Canadian dollar in the short term and partially offset the downward pressure from weak inflation. However, the medium- to long-term outlook for crude oil remains bearish, potentially weighing on the Canadian dollar's longer-term trajectory.

Technical Analysis

Has the Upward Trend Been Altered Following the Significant Decline?_1

Last Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index experienced a significant decline following dovish remarks by Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, which subsequently pressured the USDCAD lower. The pair found support at the 10-day SMA, with a technical reversal signal emerging in the 4H timeframe, and maintained a weak upward momentum today.

Currently, the USDCAD is supported around 1.3813, a level coinciding with the 10-day SMA, creating a confluence of support that enhances the likelihood of continued upward movement. If the price can volume-break above the 1.3860 resistance level in the short term, the upside potential extends toward last Friday's high of 1.3924. Conversely, a decline below 1.3813 could risk a retracement to 1.3750.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3820

Target Price: 1.3990

Stop Loss: 1.3760

Valid Until: September 8, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 1.3813, 1.3782

Resistance: 1.3924, 1.4000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Commodity

Technical Analysis

Summary:

Powell's dovish rhetoric could potentially underpin gold prices, as lower interest rates may reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

3347.00

Entry Price

3400.00

3300.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

Pips

EXPIRED

3300.00

3445.62

Exit Price

3347.00

Entry Price

3400.00

Fundamentals

The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled the possibility of a rate cut in September; however, persistent inflationary pressures could complicate the easing outlook. Powell further indicated that the U.S. economy is facing a "severe situation," with inflation risks currently skewed to the upside and employment risks leaning to the downside. His dovish stance may provide some support for gold, as lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Additionally, escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine may also drive gold prices higher. According to BBC reports, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, in his Independence Day address, stated that "despite the ignored calls for peace," Ukraine will continue to fight for freedom. Previously, Moscow claimed that Ukraine conducted nighttime attacks on Russian power and energy infrastructure and accused drone strikes of causing a fire at a nuclear power plant in the Kursk region. Prior to Zelenskyy's remarks, Russia asserted that Ukraine had launched nighttime attacks on its energy facilities and attributed the nuclear incident to drone attacks.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possibility of a rate cut in September during his key speech at Jackson Hole. Powell indicated that shifts in the risk-reward balance might necessitate monetary policy adjustments, with downside risks to employment increasing. He also noted that, given the still restrictive interest rate environment, policy normalization could be warranted, and preemptive measures might be required if labor market tightness threatens price stability. Powell's dovish tone led to a short-term depreciation of the U.S. dollar.

Technical Analysis

The gold price experienced a breakout above the Bollinger upper band in the 1H timeframe and is currently consolidating near the EMA12. If the price maintains support at EMA12, an immediate upward surge toward 3400 is likely. Conversely, failure to hold this level may result in a decline toward the EMA200, approximately around 3346. The RSI reading at 60 indicates a bullish bias, yet the MACD has formed a death cross, suggesting limited upward momentum until the MACD line and signal line revert to the zero-axis. In the 1D timeframe, the price oscillates around the middle Bollinger band within a triangular pattern nearing its apex, signaling an imminent directional breakout. A breach above 3452 could propel the price toward 3500 or even 4000, while a fall below 3268 may lead to declines toward 3120 and 3100. It is recommended to go long at the lows.

Back to 3350! Gold Maintains Triangle Fluctuation!_1

Back to 3350! Gold Maintains Triangle Fluctuation!_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3347

Target Price: 3400

Stop Loss: 3300

Support: 3300, 3280, 3120

Resistance: 3375, 3400, 3439

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Technical Analysis

Summary:

Supported by domestic economic growth and improved business confidence, the British pound is expected to remain robust on August 25, 2025, but it will face inflationary pressures and monetary policy challenges.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.35208

Entry Price

1.35600

1.34900

1.33707 -0.00148 -0.11%

30.8

Pips

Loss

1.34900

1.34898

Exit Price

1.35208

Entry Price

1.35600

Fundamentals

UK short-term inflation expectations for August remain stable at 4%, while long-term expectations have decreased to 3.9%, despite persistent food price pressures and no significant deterioration in inflation outlook. Following the Bank of England's rate cut this month, consumer confidence index rose to -17, the highest since December, yet remains vulnerable to potential tax hikes and inflation resurgence risks. Household financial confidence has increased by 3 percentage points, although savings indicators have retreated from historical highs. Internal policy debates within the central bank reveal dissent over inflation risks, with four out of nine policymakers opposing further rate cuts due to concerns that rising prices could elevate wage agreements and sustain long-term inflationary pressures. July inflation reached 3.8%, the highest among G7 nations, prompting the central bank to revise its September peak inflation forecast upward from 3.7% to 4%. Balancing economic growth with inflation containment remains a key policy challenge. Relative to major currencies, the British pound exhibits notable resilience.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Symposium, hinting at the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months. He stated that "the outlook for the benchmark rate and the evolving risk landscape may necessitate adjustments to our monetary policy stance." Powell noted that the U.S. economy has demonstrated resilience amid high tariffs and restrictive immigration policies, yet the labor market and economic growth have experienced significant deceleration, with GDP growth in the first half of 2025 slowing from 2.5% year-over-year to 1.2%. He characterized the current labor market as being in a "delicate equilibrium," with labor supply and demand cooling concurrently, but this balance remains fragile, and the risk of employment decline is increasing. His dovish tone prompted strong market reactions, leading to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar.

Technical Analysis

In the 1D timeframe, the GBPUSD exhibits a strong rebound supported by the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and the EMA50, forming a large bullish candlestick and regaining stability above the EMA12. The Bollinger Bands are beginning to expand upward, yet the SMAs show no upward trend, indicating market hesitation. The MACD shows a "kiss" near the zero-axis, and the RSI is at 55, suggesting the rebound may continue. Resistance levels are at the previous high and the upper Bollinger Band, approximately 1.356 and 1.362 respectively. In the 1W timeframe, after breaking above the EMA12, the price is retesting this level; if support holds, upward movement toward 1.38 or even 1.40 is possible. Conversely, failure to hold could lead to declines toward 1.31 and 1.30. Currently, after a MACD death cross, the MACD line and signal line are approaching the zero-axis, with RSI at 58, not indicating overbought conditions, but the decreasing peaks suggest a potential pullback. Overall, the correction is incomplete. The strategy is to go long initially, then consider going short.